@@12daleks biden is going 1 term. definitely. he knows if he ran again he’ll lose. he’s old, he’s doing below average. of course, i still support the guy. but he’s not the best. he’s a better version of jimmy carter. If he ran in 2016 though he would’ve been doing so much better. biden is still doing 1000x better than trump, though.
@@futurei0oo oh shit i didnt mean “if he ran again he’ll definetly lose” sorry lol my fault for wording it like that. i meant if he kept going down the path he is doing right now, especially with covid cases rising in the states and his approval rating falling, he’ll might not win 2024 if he went 2nd term. personally, i prefer every democrat over a republican besides joe manchin, kamala harris, hillary ect. personally, im a democratic socalist. and i’d want bernie to be the nominee in 2024 if biden doesnt win again, but we all know he cant become president. because conservatives and most independents are scared of “communism” when they don’t even know what it means. especially cubans in florida.
@@travisgreen2930of course that person watch the full video 🤷🏼♀️☝🏿 lol he predicts that presidents Gore in 2000 that's he wasn't a winner and other president of course lol I remember that he just talkin because his idea cuz he's a teacher professor and also he gets some idea from other people so he combined together that Donna Trump a winning or President biden's a winner cuz he he's just see the guess games of his thinking lol, I'm a strong empath there's no more Democrat winners lol because he's a scandalous you know lol so this man already predict he already know the answer at the end please don't be so gullible. Lol🤨🫵..
Hi from Argentina! I´ve only one thing to say regarding your comment: ¨bulls(f..ing)eye¨. And this guy Lichtman really wanted Trump to lose. To tell you the truth, I think his points can not be taken as a meassure to predict a president: Do these points take into account a pandemic? Presidents around the world are all under attack because citizens believe they mishandled the pandemic! They all stand to lose their reelections. Trump lost because of the pandemic AND because he was receiving fire from every angle: media, antifa, powerful people, an impeachment process that can seriously hurt a candidate´s image, etc, etc. When I saw the images on the news, burning buildings, tearing down of statues, it looked like a coup d´etat. The same images could be seen in my country in 2000, when president de la Rua was overthrown. That´s why I question if these points could be generalized to predict a president; and remember, this guy was once wrong!
@@jamesbd45 I think if you look at his record you will see differently. It is documented and "time stamped". But if you were hoping trump would win, I can see why you would say that. :)
I ran his keys myself to the best of my ability. My results has Biden losing the White House. Again this was difficult as we're halfway through his term and there might be human error on my part when interpreting his keys.
I hate both corporate captured parties. I'm voting for Trump next time. Why not? Nothing to lose. Kids will still be on cages. Nicaragua will still suffer US sanctions. Russia will still be a silly made up threat. Blah blah blah.
It depends. If Ukraine actually beats back Russia, that will be a major foreign policy success and will neutralize his Afghanistan failure. Similarly, it is possible the short-term or long-term economy will be doing better in 2024 (even if it only gets better because of Coronavirus ending, that will still be an improvement compared to when Biden took office).
@@casuallavaring The United States isn't involved in the Russia/Ukraine conflict, so why would anyone give Biden Major policy credit? Afghanistan was a complete and total utter failure, on Bidens behalf.
@@casuallavaring I think you’ll find that the Midterms, followed by the longest Winter, are going to be crippling for Americans. Biden has already hit record lows for approval ratings, and it’s probably going to get worse
The challenge in 2024 will be in keeping up the illusion that elections are a fair expression of the will of the people; when in fact, elections are the mechanism by which the ruling class legitimizes their continued rule.
There is no ruling class; all evidence points to modern American elections fundamentally being decided by the will of the American people. Around 81 million people voted for Joe Biden; that was their choice, and it is because of that choice that he is the president. People just use the "ruling class" phrase as a scapegoat, to blame for every problem. The rich and powerful definitely have some negative impacts, but you can't pretend they run the country behind the scenes. That is simply untrue.
That is retarded. Trump won in '16 in spite of almost every major corporation going for Clinton. I hate these cheap, trite, and untrue remarks from plain-speaking "everymen". Go read a fucking book, buy something not from Justin Boots, and take a shower.
@@actuallicensedteacher1846 false. Read good info. The billionaire demographic was for Republicans historically. In 2016 the billionaire support was split. In 2020 overwhelmingly for democrats. Get facts straight
So many of you are just butt-hurt over the fact the man has accurately predicted every single presidential election result since 1982. I’m sure you all are qualified to comment and analyze his predictions of course with your “keyboard PhD’s.”
Don't forget Ralph Nader in 2000. Talking about Florida, had Al Gore gotten just 1 of every 150 votes cast for Ralph Nader there, he (Gore) would've been president. AND I'll go you one better. The electoral vote that year was 271-267 in favor of Bush. OK, had Al Gore gotten even less than 35% of the Nader vote in New Hampshire, he'd have won that state (he wouldn't have needed Florida, all other factors remaining the same) and consequently the White House.
He (Biden) isn't up to being president now. The guy is a vegetable. Thanks to him and the Democrats we have crisis at the border, inflation, a disaster in Afghanistan, and lawlessness in the streets of Portland Minneapolis, Detroit, Chicago, Baltimore, and NYC. And ALL OF THESE CITIES ARE GOVERNED BY DEMOCRATS. Anybody but Biden_Harris in '24.
.Trump predicts things very well . Although he had a little mistake , he said that lockdown can not solve problems of pandemic, without vaccin , pandemic can not disapear
@@theretarbconsultant5469 in the begining , no people knew coronavirus what kind of virus. no people knew it can exist for several years. so he said that " it will go away like miracle" .in addtion, in the begining, there was no vaccine. lockdown again and again, economy suffered from great loss . now inflation is higher . later trump is correct. He said that vaccine is crucial
Trump predicted absolutely nothing at all. Another thing Trump family didnt predict is going to prison. A grand jury has been assembled for criminal proceeding against Trump organization. The number of times a grand jury has been assembled and not came back with indictment charges is extremely very, very, very rare. So many people in Trump family orbit are ratting Trump familly out that they are going to be indicted, convicted and sent to prison.
I’d say it’s too early to call, I’d like to see how this first term goes first. I believe Trumps support only truly fell during COVID-19 and that summer. A lot could happen in four years. Edit: Well Afghanistan could really change all that
@Matt Hooper Approval ratings simply don’t matter, considering the fact that entire states are going around chanting “F Joe Biden”, he visited the 9/11 Spots and people shouted at him for what he’s done, while Trump did this, he was only met with praise from people all around.
@Matt Hooper Plus, Trump once had a 49% Approval rating, which exceeds Joe’s 46% if you even wanna count popularity by approval rating. Plus, Trump was the President for four years, Joe’s been President for a few months and people went from loving him to regretting giving him the Oval Office.
@@Rithemofthenight trump may have planned the withdrawal but it was terribly executed. Biden said we would not have a Saigon moment, and we absolutely did. But I do agree it was inevitable. Bush is to blame more than Trump or Biden
@@ohiowatha I don’t want to hear shit from people like you after y’all said the 2000 was stolen in Florida, the 2004 was stolen because of Ohio, that Russia stole the 2016 election in favor of Donald Trump(according to James Comey there was no evidence Russia was able to manipulate votes), the 2018 Georgia’s Governor race was stolen but the 2020 election was the most safest and secure election ever, GTFOH. Dems claim without evidence elections are stolen from there all the time. In fact, at least one democrat has objected to certifying the election for a Republican since Ronald Reagan’s re-election. Spare me your selective outrage
@@criconinvestments7723 I monitor over 100 most important campaign promises of Biden and track down how many of these promises he kept. I can surely say that he made huge things already. Biden's top priorities are fighting the coronavirus, improving the economy, responding to calls for racial justice, combating climate change, LGBTQ rights, abortion, healthcare, jobs and foreign policy. There are 2 more years ahead and everything will change for the better if the Republicans and the pandemic do not stop us. Here are some things Biden did: Rejoin the WHO Establish new fuel economy standards Work with allies to develop secure private-sector-led 5G networks Direct federal resources to help prevent violence against transgender women Use the Defense Production Act to produce personal protective equipment Resume ties with the Palestinian Authority Increase COVID-19 testing Rejoin the Paris climate agreement Create a bipartisan commission to consider reforms to the Supreme Court 100 million COVID-19 vaccine shots for 50 million people in 100 days Give small businesses a 'restart package' for pandemic-related openings Help state and local governments prevent budget shortfalls Reverse family separation policies Reverse the transgender military ban Immediately rescind the “Muslim bans” Restore the White House directorate for global health security Enact domestic terrorism law Implement mask mandates nationwide (but Some evil states drop mask mandates) Imediatly left Afghanistan with a small loss. increased the number of immigration judges reopening schools reversing travel ban and makings immigration less hard ... should I continue? In his first 100 days in office, Biden signed more than 60 executive actions, that is a huge deal. So far, Biden has signed more executive orders and memorandums than any of the last three presidents, when comparing how many each had published in the Federal Register through April 30 of their first year in office. edition.cnn.com/interactive/2021/politics/biden-executive-orders/ Biden made 17 executive orders on day one: www.politico.com/interactives/2021/interactive_biden-first-day-executive-orders/ Even if he did not do anything, the main thing is that Trump no longer is in the office. That's already a huge deal. I am relieved that We no longer hear trump's lies, We no longer listen to his selfish thoughts. Violence and religion is no longer encouraged. homophobes, sexists and racists are no longer encouraged. Biden is pro lgbt, pro abortion, pro science, pro immigration, pro equality, pro unity, pro women, pro BLM, pro taxing, pro universal healthcare and so on. I support that! SOON The economy will move forward, Foreign policy will improve, Inequality will be overcome, Jobs will rise. that is what Biden will do. also see these links: www.elle.com/uk/life-and-culture/a35276357/joe-biden-president-executive-orders/ www.bbc.com/news/56901183 www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2021/11/24/bidens-confirmations-progress-at-the-300-day-mark/ edition.cnn.com/2021/04/28/politics/president-biden-first-100-days/index.html
Not really, you've just got horrible political instincts lmao. Biden has already said he's open to running again which is a politician's way of saying "unless I'm dead or some scandal destroys my career I'm running again". Biden is almost certainly going to run again, and as long as inflation is under control by then he will most likely win and you morons will come up with a whole new slew of conspiracies to explain it.
Let's review the keys: 1). Incumbent party does not lose the House: Democrats will almost certainly lose the house, a point against Biden. 2). No primary contest: Biden will almost certainly not be challenged in the primary. Bernie, his main competitor, isn't that stupid. 3). No third party: It is too early to tell. However, it is very likely there will be no third-party challenge. 4). Incumbent seeks re-election: Biden will almost certainly be the Democratic nominee. 5). The Economy is going well at the time of the election: Unlikely, but still too early to call. 6). The Economy is doing better than when the candidate took office: This one is tough. If COVID ends by 2024 that will probably improve the economy. We may still be enduring hardship but it would still be better than where we started. Too early to call. Remember, the economy was in shit place in 2020 too, which is why Trump lost. 7). Major Policy Change: The infrastructure bill was a major policy change, a point in Biden's favor. 8). No social unrest: Extremely unlikely. 9). No foreign policy failure: The only key we can know for certain. Biden was definitely hit hard by Afghanistan. 10). Foreign Policy Success: If Ukraine beats back Russia, this will actually be a major foreign policy success for Biden and will neutralize his disastrous Afghanistan pullout. 11). No Scandal: Biden is too milquetoast for scandal. 12). Charismatic Incumbent: Point against Biden. Biden is definitely not charismatic. 13). No charismatic challenger: Point in Biden's favor. Trump and DeSantis, Biden's most likely challengers, are extremely uncharismatic. In total, we have five keys against Biden: The 2022 primary will probably be lost by Democrats (although it's still too early to call). The economy is not doing great, a point against Biden. The Afghanistan pullout was a foreign policy disaster. Biden is not charismatic, and there is social unrest. However, Biden can still recover if the economy turns around or if Ukraine defeats Russia.
aged better than expected... Biden has a 80% favorability among Democrats, Trump only has about a 16% among Republicans... not to mention, there are more democrats than republicans and the independents are usually left leaning
@@paxapunch2708in my opinion Biden has 9 in favor, and 4 keys against. Democrats actually won the midterms in 2022, and inflation did decrease to 3.4 percet from the 8% high. So if there is no economic recession this year, Biden will win both keys on economics. According to Lichtmann's book in order to loose the short term economy key, there has to be a recession on same the year the election takes place, and this appears not to be the case for 2024, but its not for sure as of now. On the long term economy key, he is the president that has created the most jobs and according to a Nasdaq article he has seen an average 2.6 percent GDP growth in his 4 year tenure. So there 4 keys he has against: he is not charismatic, social unrest might be a key against although its hard to quantify on how that plays out, Afghanistan was a mess and Ukraine has not defeated Russia as of now, so there are no military wins.
Dear God💗❤️💗💗❤️💖❤️💞🙏in heaven, I come to you in the name of Jesus. I acknowledge to You that I am a sinner, and I am sorry for my sins and the life that I have lived; I need your forgiveness. I believe that your only begotten Son Jesus Christ shed His precious blood on the cross at Calvary and died for my sins, and I am now willing to turn from my sin. You said in the bible that if we confess the Lord our God and believe in our hearts that God raised Jesus from the dead, we shall be saved. Right now I confess Jesus as my Lord. With my heart, I believe that God raised Jesus from the dead. This very moment I accept Jesus Christ as my own personal Savior and according to His Word, right now I am saved. Amen.
@@grandmanancy4719 Nah that's probably him and his evil group of people playing with everyone so we can think he is dying. This people do weird things to mentally control you.
The GOP needs to capitalize on Bidens failures. No independent would vote for Trump again. Hopefully they are actually looking for a good GOP candidate and arent seriously floating the Trump2024 thing.
Since when did you speak for all independents? I’m sure there are many that would still vote for Trump, especially if they just wanted to do anything to get rid of Biden. Many people will feel like this and already do.
@@MoiMoz Very doubtful. The majority of America really like Biden and Trump is nothing but a criminal Russian traitor plus. A grand jury has been assembled for criminal proceeding against Trump organization. The number of times a grand jury has been assembled and not came back with indictment charges is extremely very, very, very rare. So many people in Trump family orbit are ratting Trump familly out that they are going to be indicted, convicted and sent to prison.
@@VegasRT500 good luck with that lol and no one likes Biden that is a complete lie. Just because your echo chamber of left wing media garbage says he’s popular doesn’t mean he is. I live in CT a blue stronghold and I still see trump signs around here and I’ve talked to people and no one is happy about the corpse currently inhabiting the White House.
@@_Slaab_ actually you are wrong..it amuses me how uneducated trump supporters are..how delusional trump supporters can be..trump isn't going to be running for president of anything. He will be broke and most likely in prison
@@melindanewton6303 it amazes me how incredibly arrogant and condescending every democrat is. People like you think being educated is going to a liberal college where they constantly cram a certain ideology down your throat. Just because you have a piece of paper saying you have some useless degree doesn’t mean you are smarter than everyone else and just because you subscribe to the mainstream narrative doesn’t mean you are educated. I didn’t go to a traditional college, I make very good money, and I don’t have tens of thousands of dollars in debt. I’m sorry you think I’m uneducated because I don’t agree with your opinion.
I think he is saying: (1) Biden will win if he decides to run again. (2) there's no charismatic leader in GOP who can challenge the current administration, including trump Am I hearing it all right?
@@2024Blue. they change election rule which does not match completely constitution . Constitution do not say to allow so many mailing votes . in addition, democratical party want to explain constitution in their own way to creat many precedent cases
@@weixu5344 The Constitution doesn’t say anything about mail-in voting lol. It’s a way to get your vote counted, especially during a pandemic. It’s a lot safer. Also idk if you knew, but the military votes by mail. The people have had the option to vote by mail for decades. It wasn’t required to vote by mail, just recommended for your own safety.
So, 11 months later, after the lackluster performance of the Biden Administration on very important issues, the poor optics of the lack of transparency in the White House, and now the loss of the gubernatorial race in VA and a really close race in NJ, how do the prospects look? Honest question.
These kids turning 18 over the next three years will be voting in 2024. Historically younger voters vote blue and these kids are one of the most liberal minded generations in decades. Thats a lot of new blue voters. While older conservitive voters are growing older. These kids that were old enough to vote in 2020 voted in higher numbers for biden than trump. And so many more of them will be old enough to vote by 2024. Some of them by the mid term in 2022. I think the chances of another 4 years for biden or another dem is looking good. These kids have a lot of power and I think its why republicans want to limit voting. They know the kids will vote heavily blue.
True that! And o a lot of the older folks who voted in '20 will have died by '24. I also read that in 1932, FDR got 85% of the under-30 vote. And that was back when 21 was the minimum voting age nationwide.
No voting for the criminal Russian Trump puppet family was irresponsible. A grand jury has been assembled for criminal proceeding against Trump organization. The number of times a grand jury has been assembled and not came back with indictment charges is extremely very, very, very rare. So many people in Trump family orbit are ratting Trump familly out that they are going to be indicted, convicted and sent to prison.
im gonna predict the keys right now, but they are 100% gonna change!: 1. Party Mandate (flip possible, the House Dems have a slim majority now) 2. Contest (flip not possible, it's gonna be likely Harris, i doubt AOC will successfully primary her) 3. Incumbency (flip possible, i don't see Biden running again) 4. Third Party (unknown, that's a wild guess to make so im not gonna make it) 5. Short-term economy (flip may not be possible, the economy is almost returning to normal even tho Biden hasn't been seated yet) 6. Long-term economy (flip may not be possible, we just need to look at how long a recovery keeps the economy up, in 4 years i don't see it crashing again with Biden) 7. Policy Change (flip not possible, Biden is very likely to change and overturn many Trump policies just like Trump did on Obama's) 8. Social Unrest (flip may be possible, our country is still very divided, even if Biden does try to heal the nation, i think he's gonna fail) 9. Scandal (flip not possible, talk about Hunter Biden all you want, insufficient evidence is not gonna sway people, and voters didn't even care even if that really was a scandal) 10. Foreign/Military failure (flip may not be possible, i don't see us going to war with a nation anytime soon, but this is a wild card, let's say, if Iran doesn't make a new deal with the US, then flip could happen, but I don't see Iran gonna get more outraged) 11. Foreign/Military success (flip not possible, Iran Deal 2.0 is very much likely gonna happen, i can see it) 12. Incumbent Charisma (flip possible, i don't see Biden or Harris as charismatic at all) 13. Challenger charisma (flip not possible, even if you run Trump, a Trump ally, or even a GOP moderate, i really doubt they'll get much praise, the GOP has to be united first around a candidate before you can flip this key) Overall score range: 3-7 keys overturned, so it's anyone's game at this point. but there is a minimum of 3 already to me, so the Dems should be aware and not mess up anywhere else.
Biden will be 84 in 2024, doubt very much he runs again, if he's even still alive. GOP very likely to flip House and Senate; if they take either or both, there will be major investigations of Biden, putting Hunter Biden, mountains of evidence, and his irrefutable identity as the "Big Guy" on the front page. No chance Senate would Biden from office (though Hunter Biden and exposure as the "Big Guy" may cause him to resign with age and health problems as an excuse). But given what the Democratic House did to Trump - impeaching him on false charges - I would put odds above average that a GOP House will impeach Biden on true, irrefutable charges. Finally, the JCPOA is dead.
That's exactly what I thought, also! There is no way Biden would win again, unless the election was rigged, like the 2020 election. That's the only reason he won in 2020! Democrats know they're toast in the 2022 midterms, and they know they will never be able to find a candidate for 2024 who could beat Trump, LEGITIMATELY and LEGALLY. The sad, and infuriating thing is that even when the Republicans win back the House in 2022, they won't do a thing to Biden. They won't impeach him, because Mitch McConnell already said that they weren't going to do anything to Biden. Kevin McCarthy even said that impeaching Biden won't happen on his watch! If the Republicans would play as dirty as the Dems do, and would actually fight fire with fire, they could get a lot done, and get a lot of these corrupt Dems out of office. But, they want to "take the high road," and they want to "civil" towards Democrats, when they know good and well that the Democrats will NEVER return the favor, and will NEVER be civil towards them! You can be as nice as you can to Democrats, you can be civil towards them, and try to find common ground, and they will NOT be the same way towards you! You can be be nice to them, and even give them what they want, and they will not give you the same courtesy, and will treat you even worse! We need to vote out Republicans like McCarthy, and McConnell, and replace them with Republicans like Marjorie Taylor Greene, Matt Gaetz, Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley, Jim Jordan, Madison Cawthorne, Lauren Boebert, and Elise Stefanik! Now THOSE are the kind of Republicans we need in the majority of Congress and the Senate! Things would actually get done, and they would NOT allow Democrats to get away with the things they've done!
Allan Lichtman: "I'm not making a prediction."
The National News: Allan Lichtman is already predicting the 2024 presidential race
We all know who they want to win
@@dakkokas6285 How about Alfred E. Neuman of "MAD Magazine." Give him a chance. He is not corrupt or power hungry like others who seek the presidency.
Yes 8 months ago a lot has happens since then Biden is getting w orse.
@@12daleks biden is going 1 term. definitely. he knows if he ran again he’ll lose.
he’s old, he’s doing below average. of course, i still support the guy. but he’s not the best. he’s a better version of jimmy carter. If he ran in 2016 though he would’ve been doing so much better.
biden is still doing 1000x better than trump, though.
@@futurei0oo oh shit i didnt mean “if he ran again he’ll definetly lose” sorry lol my fault for wording it like that.
i meant if he kept going down the path he is doing right now, especially with covid cases rising in the states and his approval rating falling, he’ll might not win 2024 if he went 2nd term.
personally, i prefer every democrat over a republican besides joe manchin, kamala harris, hillary ect.
personally, im a democratic socalist. and i’d want bernie to be the nominee in 2024 if biden doesnt win again,
but we all know he cant become president. because conservatives and most independents are scared of “communism” when they don’t even know what it means. especially cubans in florida.
That was incredibly uninformative. I feel dumber having watched it.
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
🤣
You’re already hit the floor level, it’s impossible to go any lower
@@fos1451 I thought that as well but after watching this video I realized I’d fallen through the bottom floor into the cellar.
Then you wasn’t intelligent nor smart to begin with. 😂
He has never been wrong he even predicted trumps first win
That's not true. He predicted Gore would win in 2000.
@@thez4377 That was when he was still basing his predictions on the popular vote though, right?
@@thez4377 did you watch the full video??
@@travisgreen2930of course that person watch the full video 🤷🏼♀️☝🏿 lol he predicts that presidents Gore in 2000 that's he wasn't a winner and other president of course lol I remember that he just talkin because his idea cuz he's a teacher professor and also he gets some idea from other people so he combined together that Donna Trump a winning or President biden's a winner cuz he he's just see the guess games of his thinking lol, I'm a strong empath there's no more Democrat winners lol because he's a scandalous you know lol so this man already predict he already know the answer at the end please don't be so gullible. Lol🤨🫵..
@@thez4377 Gore did win, but Florida (Bush's brother was governor) cheated and made Bush Jr. president...
Well, I think it's safe to say we can put an "F" next to the "No foreign/military failure".
F next to no foreign success either 😁😁
Scandal too
Hi from Argentina! I´ve only one thing to say regarding your comment: ¨bulls(f..ing)eye¨. And this guy Lichtman really wanted Trump to lose. To tell you the truth, I think his points can not be taken as a meassure to predict a president: Do these points take into account a pandemic? Presidents around the world are all under attack because citizens believe they mishandled the pandemic! They all stand to lose their reelections. Trump lost because of the pandemic AND because he was receiving fire from every angle: media, antifa, powerful people, an impeachment process that can seriously hurt a candidate´s image, etc, etc. When I saw the images on the news, burning buildings, tearing down of statues, it looked like a coup d´etat. The same images could be seen in my country in 2000, when president de la Rua was overthrown. That´s why I question if these points could be generalized to predict a president; and remember, this guy was once wrong!
I also put an F next to "No Social Unrest" since, well, Maxine Waters...
@@adrianvivas4953 well we can all agree during times of trouble people look for a new leader
Title: "Allan Lichtman is already predicting the 2024 election."
Allan Lichtman: "I am not making a prediction."
you steal my comment
The only thing I heard was, "IF he runs again" Well, he won from the basement, so maybe he can win from the nursing home!
@@ronfeggio LOL
I predicted he would say that.
Biden will not even finish this term because of serious health conditions.
according to his keys, he can't even predict the winner yet
Too early. Geez.
Too early. Geez.
@@jamesbd45 I think if you look at his record you will see differently. It is documented and "time stamped". But if you were hoping trump would win, I can see why you would say that. :)
@@debshipman4697 ... Too repetitious .... Geez.
I ran his keys myself to the best of my ability. My results has Biden losing the White House. Again this was difficult as we're halfway through his term and there might be human error on my part when interpreting his keys.
I believe it might be alot of people switching sides in 2024.
Definitely not Jiden Boe
Your correct.
My parents persuaded me to go that way and now I'm working on them to go the other very. Either way I'm not voting Democrat
@@tamaramc5529 Me either!!!!!
I hate both corporate captured parties. I'm voting for Trump next time. Why not? Nothing to lose. Kids will still be on cages. Nicaragua will still suffer US sanctions. Russia will still be a silly made up threat. Blah blah blah.
This is total gaslighting...
I wonder if Allan Lichtman has the same enthusiasm today about his answer a year ago.
Yes, yes he does.
He sure does. Even more so.
According to Allan lichtman. He recently said that Desantis is not going to save the GOP in 2024 election.
Well duh
They also said Obama was going to be a one term President.
If anyone actually understands his keys system you have to see how the presidential term plays out before he can even predict
Exactly! Likely by summer 2024 we can have a fair prediction.
Biden / Fetterman 2024.
It's a no-brainer.
@@theta799 literally
And if you pay attention and apply the keys, you can see how Biden will clinch the 2024 presidency.
@@jsin22366322 You are correct, I agree with you.
Boy what a year of fucking things up changes.
My how wrong he is now with Biden and his chances of re-election.
It depends. If Ukraine actually beats back Russia, that will be a major foreign policy success and will neutralize his Afghanistan failure. Similarly, it is possible the short-term or long-term economy will be doing better in 2024 (even if it only gets better because of Coronavirus ending, that will still be an improvement compared to when Biden took office).
@@casuallavaring The United States isn't involved in the Russia/Ukraine conflict, so why would anyone give Biden Major policy credit? Afghanistan was a complete and total utter failure, on Bidens behalf.
@@casuallavaring I think you’ll find that the Midterms, followed by the longest Winter, are going to be crippling for Americans. Biden has already hit record lows for approval ratings, and it’s probably going to get worse
@@casuallavaring well, here we are talking about nuclear Armageddon, so I’d say things are not going well at all!
The challenge in 2024 will be in keeping up the illusion that elections are a fair expression of the will of the people; when in fact, elections are the mechanism by which the ruling class legitimizes their continued rule.
There is no ruling class; all evidence points to modern American elections fundamentally being decided by the will of the American people. Around 81 million people voted for Joe Biden; that was their choice, and it is because of that choice that he is the president.
People just use the "ruling class" phrase as a scapegoat, to blame for every problem. The rich and powerful definitely have some negative impacts, but you can't pretend they run the country behind the scenes. That is simply untrue.
Life is strange
and yet you have zero evidence to back that claim again
This.
@@myemodiaries901 lol Biden lover you like the gas prices should I keep going
this should have been titled "before Biden is even Inaugurated, Lichtman was already citing reasons why he will be re-elected."
He should be. He's great.
@@sallywilliams5444 AT WHAT?🤣🤣🤣🤣
@@stevenlukowski562 he predicted every president getting elected even trump he dose not miss
@@stevenlukowski562 At getting things done brainless Trump supporter. I guess you prefer a seditionist that lied, cheated and played golf all day.
@@sallywilliams5444 Lib, Figures, go to your safe space!!!🤣🤣🤣🤣
He literally said he’s not making a prediction yet 😑
Just see which party has more corporations funding them and you know who wins.
Nah it’s about what they get done while in office
@@grimaffiliations3671 not anymore
@@benhagood9591 ??
That is retarded. Trump won in '16 in spite of almost every major corporation going for Clinton. I hate these cheap, trite, and untrue remarks from plain-speaking "everymen". Go read a fucking book, buy something not from Justin Boots, and take a shower.
@@actuallicensedteacher1846 false. Read good info.
The billionaire demographic was for Republicans historically.
In 2016 the billionaire support was split.
In 2020 overwhelmingly for democrats.
Get facts straight
This prediction is not aging well, and neither is Biden.
Oh, I don't know, Biden was able to outsmart you, Trump, and the republican party.... but that always ages well.
Gas prices alone
What planet is this guy from?
but Professor L clearly states at 42 that he is not making a prediction
He's not 42.
@@12daleks thanks for your feedback; i wasn't referring to his age
Lol!!! People are wanting Trump back!
The fact he didn't predict Biden won't make it the full 4 years shows he is out of touch
Neither Biden nor Trump should be the next president.
So many of you are just butt-hurt over the fact the man has accurately predicted every single presidential election result since 1982. I’m sure you all are qualified to comment and analyze his predictions of course with your “keyboard PhD’s.”
They're braindead, excuse them
Except 2000
was there a big third party movement in 2016? gary johnson was semi big in like 2 states
Not major. But he got decent numbers.
They weren’t very large states and weren’t swing states either, so that likely wouldn’t affect much/change anything at all.
Don't forget Ralph Nader in 2000. Talking about Florida, had Al Gore gotten just 1 of every 150 votes cast for Ralph Nader there, he (Gore) would've been president. AND I'll go you one better. The electoral vote that year was 271-267 in favor of Bush. OK, had Al Gore gotten even less than 35% of the Nader vote in New Hampshire, he'd have won that state (he wouldn't have needed Florida, all other factors remaining the same) and consequently the White House.
People hated both Democrats and Republicans nominees that’s why Green and Libertarian got more votes
No not really, in 1984 there was
Somebody remind that Mummy Joe Biden to run for President. Or else he will forget to enter his name in the race.
Protect your young kin vote Youngkin 🗽
This didn’t age well……
How can you take seriously someone with haircut like his???
How can you predict if you don't know whose running?
Well Depend, the diaper maker, will be contributing heavily to Biden’s campaign, should he run. This I know ☝🏻
Just came here to down vote.. all these people are evil.
Will he be up to running for re-election, mentally and physically? That's 3 years and then another 4, I don't know
He (Biden) isn't up to being president now. The guy is a vegetable. Thanks to him and the Democrats we have crisis at the border, inflation, a disaster in Afghanistan, and lawlessness in the streets of Portland Minneapolis, Detroit, Chicago, Baltimore, and NYC. And ALL OF THESE CITIES ARE GOVERNED BY DEMOCRATS. Anybody but Biden_Harris in '24.
6 replies(plus mine) and no others are visible?......
Odd.
He's not speaking from late 2021. Look at the date when it was released. Bet he wouldn't say the same now.
Welp this didn't age well. He should do another video about presidents who become lame ducks 7 months into their first terms in office.
.Trump predicts things very well . Although he had a little mistake , he said that lockdown can not solve problems of pandemic, without vaccin , pandemic can not disapear
No he literally said “It will go away like a miracle”
@@theretarbconsultant5469 in the begining , no people know this what kind of virus . but later he is correct , he said that vaccine is crucial
@@theretarbconsultant5469 in the begining , no people knew coronavirus what kind of virus. no people knew it can exist for several years. so he said that " it will go away like miracle" .in addtion, in the begining, there was no vaccine. lockdown again and again, economy suffered from great loss .
now inflation is higher . later trump is correct. He said that vaccine is crucial
Trump predicted absolutely nothing at all. Another thing Trump family didnt predict is going to prison. A grand jury has been assembled for criminal proceeding against Trump organization. The number of times a grand jury has been assembled and not came back with indictment charges is extremely very, very, very rare. So many people in Trump family orbit are ratting Trump familly out that they are going to be indicted, convicted and sent to prison.
I give up, have fun 🙌
I’d say it’s too early to call, I’d like to see how this first term goes first. I believe Trumps support only truly fell during COVID-19 and that summer. A lot could happen in four years.
Edit: Well Afghanistan could really change all that
Agreed Thomas 👍
Trump’s support might’ve started to slightly slim during Covid, but since Biden’s been in office, it’s only heightened far beyond Sleepy Joe’s fanbase
@Matt Hooper Approval ratings simply don’t matter, considering the fact that entire states are going around chanting “F Joe Biden”, he visited the 9/11 Spots and people shouted at him for what he’s done, while Trump did this, he was only met with praise from people all around.
@Matt Hooper Plus, Trump once had a 49% Approval rating, which exceeds Joe’s 46% if you even wanna count popularity by approval rating. Plus, Trump was the President for four years, Joe’s been President for a few months and people went from loving him to regretting giving him the Oval Office.
@Matt Hooper What I said about Trump’s and Biden’s popularity however still stands.
If this genius wins again (or should I say is installed again) we are screwed.
We're already screwed. Look at Afghanistan. We already lost.
@@abren5974 Trump planned that. We were gonna lose it either way. Thats delusional.
@@Rithemofthenight trump may have planned the withdrawal but it was terribly executed. Biden said we would not have a Saigon moment, and we absolutely did. But I do agree it was inevitable. Bush is to blame more than Trump or Biden
Trump lost. Prove otherwise or shut up.
@@ohiowatha I don’t want to hear shit from people like you after y’all said the 2000 was stolen in Florida, the 2004 was stolen because of Ohio, that Russia stole the 2016 election in favor of Donald Trump(according to James Comey there was no evidence Russia was able to manipulate votes), the 2018 Georgia’s Governor race was stolen but the 2020 election was the most safest and secure election ever, GTFOH. Dems claim without evidence elections are stolen from there all the time. In fact, at least one democrat has objected to certifying the election for a Republican since Ronald Reagan’s re-election. Spare me your selective outrage
He is fucking insane
The video is mistitled. Lichtman clearly stated that he wasn't making a prediction yet.
I wonder if he still feels the same
Why d'you ask?
yes he thinks so. because biden is great president. he made USA better. period and if he runs again in 2024 he will probably win
@@aramkitkhemoambe9801 I’m assuming you meant 2024 or do you suffer from dementia like biden?
@@aramkitkhemoambe9801 Ok, what are the great things Biden's done for this country?
@@criconinvestments7723 I monitor over 100 most important campaign promises of Biden and track down how many of these promises he kept. I can surely say that he made huge things already. Biden's top priorities are fighting the coronavirus, improving the economy, responding to calls for racial justice, combating climate change, LGBTQ rights, abortion, healthcare, jobs and foreign policy. There are 2 more years ahead and everything will change for the better if the Republicans and the pandemic do not stop us.
Here are some things Biden did:
Rejoin the WHO
Establish new fuel economy standards
Work with allies to develop secure private-sector-led 5G networks
Direct federal resources to help prevent violence against transgender women
Use the Defense Production Act to produce personal protective equipment
Resume ties with the Palestinian Authority
Increase COVID-19 testing
Rejoin the Paris climate agreement
Create a bipartisan commission to consider reforms to the Supreme Court
100 million COVID-19 vaccine shots for 50 million people in 100 days
Give small businesses a 'restart package' for pandemic-related openings
Help state and local governments prevent budget shortfalls
Reverse family separation policies
Reverse the transgender military ban
Immediately rescind the “Muslim bans”
Restore the White House directorate for global health security
Enact domestic terrorism law
Implement mask mandates nationwide (but Some evil states drop mask mandates)
Imediatly left Afghanistan with a small loss.
increased the number of immigration judges
reopening schools
reversing travel ban and makings immigration less hard
... should I continue?
In his first 100 days in office, Biden signed more than 60 executive actions, that is a huge deal.
So far, Biden has signed more executive orders and memorandums than any of the last three presidents, when comparing how many each had published in the Federal Register through April 30 of their first year in office. edition.cnn.com/interactive/2021/politics/biden-executive-orders/
Biden made 17 executive orders on day one: www.politico.com/interactives/2021/interactive_biden-first-day-executive-orders/
Even if he did not do anything, the main thing is that Trump no longer is in the office. That's already a huge deal. I am relieved that We no longer hear trump's lies, We no longer listen to his selfish thoughts. Violence and religion is no longer encouraged. homophobes, sexists and racists are no longer encouraged.
Biden is pro lgbt, pro abortion, pro science, pro immigration, pro equality, pro unity, pro women, pro BLM, pro taxing, pro universal healthcare and so on. I support that!
SOON The economy will move forward, Foreign policy will improve, Inequality will be overcome, Jobs will rise. that is what Biden will do.
also see these links:
www.elle.com/uk/life-and-culture/a35276357/joe-biden-president-executive-orders/
www.bbc.com/news/56901183
www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2021/11/24/bidens-confirmations-progress-at-the-300-day-mark/
edition.cnn.com/2021/04/28/politics/president-biden-first-100-days/index.html
We have Ron DeSantis
A high colonic will fix that.
In 3 years what kind of shape will Biden be in? Cognitivelly and physically.
This aged like milk. No way Biden runs, let alone have a chance at winning 🤡🤡
Not really, you've just got horrible political instincts lmao. Biden has already said he's open to running again which is a politician's way of saying "unless I'm dead or some scandal destroys my career I'm running again". Biden is almost certainly going to run again, and as long as inflation is under control by then he will most likely win and you morons will come up with a whole new slew of conspiracies to explain it.
😆😆😂😆😆😆 claiming election fraud already hahaha 🤣😂😂 you people are priceless always making me laugh
@@scoral7519 who said anything about fraud?
@@jjwallnutts i couldn't care less who's president but watching you retars complain and cry like the little pussys you are is definitely fun
Why do you think so?
How's this going so far? Seems Biden is failing.
Failing HARD.
At least to us peons, but in terms of the WEF and the "great" reset his rule has been absolutely phenomenal.
This sure makes him look dumb
Sobering news for the fox news acolytes.
I stumbled on this video looking for updates on Virginia's gubernatorial race and talk about not aging well.
Let's review the keys:
1). Incumbent party does not lose the House: Democrats will almost certainly lose the house, a point against Biden.
2). No primary contest: Biden will almost certainly not be challenged in the primary. Bernie, his main competitor, isn't that stupid.
3). No third party: It is too early to tell. However, it is very likely there will be no third-party challenge.
4). Incumbent seeks re-election: Biden will almost certainly be the Democratic nominee.
5). The Economy is going well at the time of the election: Unlikely, but still too early to call.
6). The Economy is doing better than when the candidate took office: This one is tough. If COVID ends by 2024 that will probably improve the economy. We may still be enduring hardship but it would still be better than where we started. Too early to call. Remember, the economy was in shit place in 2020 too, which is why Trump lost.
7). Major Policy Change: The infrastructure bill was a major policy change, a point in Biden's favor.
8). No social unrest: Extremely unlikely.
9). No foreign policy failure: The only key we can know for certain. Biden was definitely hit hard by Afghanistan.
10). Foreign Policy Success: If Ukraine beats back Russia, this will actually be a major foreign policy success for Biden and will neutralize his disastrous Afghanistan pullout.
11). No Scandal: Biden is too milquetoast for scandal.
12). Charismatic Incumbent: Point against Biden. Biden is definitely not charismatic.
13). No charismatic challenger: Point in Biden's favor. Trump and DeSantis, Biden's most likely challengers, are extremely uncharismatic.
In total, we have five keys against Biden: The 2022 primary will probably be lost by Democrats (although it's still too early to call). The economy is not doing great, a point against Biden. The Afghanistan pullout was a foreign policy disaster. Biden is not charismatic, and there is social unrest. However, Biden can still recover if the economy turns around or if Ukraine defeats Russia.
aged better than expected... Biden has a 80% favorability among Democrats, Trump only has about a 16% among Republicans... not to mention, there are more democrats than republicans and the independents are usually left leaning
@@casuallavaringA very good analysis of the keys. How do you see them at the moment?
@@paxapunch2708in my opinion Biden has 9 in favor, and 4 keys against. Democrats actually won the midterms in 2022, and inflation did decrease to 3.4 percet from the 8% high. So if there is no economic recession this year, Biden will win both keys on economics. According to Lichtmann's book in order to loose the short term economy key, there has to be a recession on same the year the election takes place, and this appears not to be the case for 2024, but its not for sure as of now. On the long term economy key, he is the president that has created the most jobs and according to a Nasdaq article he has seen an average 2.6 percent GDP growth in his 4 year tenure. So there 4 keys he has against: he is not charismatic, social unrest might be a key against although its hard to quantify on how that plays out, Afghanistan was a mess and Ukraine has not defeated Russia as of now, so there are no military wins.
Dear God💗❤️💗💗❤️💖❤️💞🙏in heaven, I come to you in the name of Jesus. I acknowledge to You that I am a sinner, and I am sorry for my sins and the life that I have lived; I need your forgiveness.
I believe that your only begotten Son Jesus Christ shed His precious blood on the cross at Calvary and died for my sins, and I am now willing to turn from my sin.
You said in the bible that if we confess the Lord our God and believe in our hearts that God raised Jesus from the dead, we shall be saved.
Right now I confess Jesus as my Lord. With my heart, I believe that God raised Jesus from the dead. This very moment I accept Jesus Christ as my own personal Savior and according to His Word, right now I am saved. Amen.
Who cares . Ain't no politician gonna do shit for the people
Yah, Biden ain’t making it one term.
Well this is a year old so I definitely don’t think Biden will make it for a second term. He may not make it through this term!
Good
@@aaaaii6511 good? like it matters who's in office lol democrats or Republicans same agenda at the end of the day 😬
Yes, last week he saw a dead person. I have witnessed people on their way out seeing visions of people that were already dead.
@@grandmanancy4719 Nah that's probably him and his evil group of people playing with everyone so we can think he is dying. This people do weird things to mentally control you.
Biden / Fetterman 2024.
It's a no-brainer.
He should run and predict himself to win.
😂
The GOP needs to capitalize on Bidens failures. No independent would vote for Trump again. Hopefully they are actually looking for a good GOP candidate and arent seriously floating the Trump2024 thing.
Since when did you speak for all independents? I’m sure there are many that would still vote for Trump, especially if they just wanted to do anything to get rid of Biden. Many people will feel like this and already do.
Biden will run for a president in 2024 as a mummy?
He's giving the GOP hints👀👀
Well the Biden administration is still new, so the keys can change
@@MoiMoz Very doubtful. The majority of America really like Biden and Trump is nothing but a criminal Russian traitor plus. A grand jury has been assembled for criminal proceeding against Trump organization. The number of times a grand jury has been assembled and not came back with indictment charges is extremely very, very, very rare. So many people in Trump family orbit are ratting Trump familly out that they are going to be indicted, convicted and sent to prison.
@@VegasRT500 good luck with that lol and no one likes Biden that is a complete lie. Just because your echo chamber of left wing media garbage says he’s popular doesn’t mean he is. I live in CT a blue stronghold and I still see trump signs around here and I’ve talked to people and no one is happy about the corpse currently inhabiting the White House.
@@_Slaab_ actually you are wrong..it amuses me how uneducated trump supporters are..how delusional trump supporters can be..trump isn't going to be running for president of anything. He will be broke and most likely in prison
@@melindanewton6303 it amazes me how incredibly arrogant and condescending every democrat is. People like you think being educated is going to a liberal college where they constantly cram a certain ideology down your throat. Just because you have a piece of paper saying you have some useless degree doesn’t mean you are smarter than everyone else and just because you subscribe to the mainstream narrative doesn’t mean you are educated. I didn’t go to a traditional college, I make very good money, and I don’t have tens of thousands of dollars in debt. I’m sorry you think I’m uneducated because I don’t agree with your opinion.
I think he is saying:
(1) Biden will win if he decides to run again.
(2) there's no charismatic leader in GOP who can challenge the current administration, including trump
Am I hearing it all right?
He's not saying (1) but he is saying (2) which is quite interesting; I don't agree on any level.
Yeah that's what he said
Yeah like as if Biden is a charismatic leader 🙄🤦♂️😂
Biden will be in a rest home by 2024 if not before
Biden has already lost this whole country wants Trump back in office and the Democrats out as the Democrats we’re never for this country
I would think Ron Desantis is a strong candidate for the republican party. It's the democratic party that has no one .
No he’s just a spoiler .
A year later, Hmm I wonder what he predicts now.. 🧐
and 2 years later, Biden is tearing it up and has a huge approval and trump is like at 16%
Thank you.
No more democrats for me when I can't find baby formula
there will be a movement to defend constitution in next four years.
Defend the constitution from what exactly?
@@2024Blue. they change election rule which does not match completely constitution . Constitution do not say to allow so many mailing votes . in addition, democratical party want to explain constitution in their own way to creat many precedent cases
constitution regulates voting time ,place and procedures very strictly
in 2020 , election was very loose and does not match constitution
@@2024Blue. investigate hunt biden. why democratical party does not investigate hunt biden?
@@weixu5344 The Constitution doesn’t say anything about mail-in voting lol. It’s a way to get your vote counted, especially during a pandemic. It’s a lot safer. Also idk if you knew, but the military votes by mail. The people have had the option to vote by mail for decades. It wasn’t required to vote by mail, just recommended for your own safety.
So, 11 months later, after the lackluster performance of the Biden Administration on very important issues, the poor optics of the lack of transparency in the White House, and now the loss of the gubernatorial race in VA and a really close race in NJ, how do the prospects look? Honest question.
You wrote this before the Infrastructure bill passed? Even if the GOP can block him from taxing the rich those two facts are enough to win.
@@I_Have_The_Most_Japanese_Music must explain why his approval has continued plummeting over the past couple months
The Democrats want to tax the richest the republicans the poor that alone should get Biden reelected
Bet he won’t suspect the Taliban to take over either.
These kids turning 18 over the next three years will be voting in 2024. Historically younger voters vote blue and these kids are one of the most liberal minded generations in decades. Thats a lot of new blue voters. While older conservitive voters are growing older. These kids that were old enough to vote in 2020 voted in higher numbers for biden than trump. And so many more of them will be old enough to vote by 2024. Some of them by the mid term in 2022. I think the chances of another 4 years for biden or another dem is looking good. These kids have a lot of power and I think its why republicans want to limit voting. They know the kids will vote heavily blue.
True that! And o a lot of the older folks who voted in '20 will have died by '24. I also read that in 1932, FDR got 85% of the under-30 vote. And that was back when 21 was the minimum voting age nationwide.
So point one would have been the same for Trump as the incumbent point two what kind of charisma did Biden have for 2020??
ruclips.net/video/mp_Uuz9k7Os/видео.html
This is the key
If 2020 has had a Democratic victory compared to 2016, then what about 2024?
If democrats win I think they will only add NC to their win. If Republicans win they will add rust belt probably
2020 election show that usa will drip to the second position in the world
imo, if Biden runs again, there'll be no change (but margins will change), except for Wisconsin and North Carolina potentially flipping.
Florida loves incumbents so it might flip
@@lightningbolt4419 Nope. I live in Miami and latino still support Trump, Florida will stay red with DeSantis or Trump in 2024.
It’s gonna be Kanye West.
He sounds like the kind of guy who's always losing his keys.
Voting for an 82 year old to be president is irresponsible.
No voting for the criminal Russian Trump puppet family was irresponsible. A grand jury has been assembled for criminal proceeding against Trump organization. The number of times a grand jury has been assembled and not came back with indictment charges is extremely very, very, very rare. So many people in Trump family orbit are ratting Trump familly out that they are going to be indicted, convicted and sent to prison.
@@VegasRT500 you're delusional
@@VegasRT500 russiagate was fake
And voting for a 78 year old isn’t? If trump runs again in 24’ he’ll be as old as Biden in 20’
@@VegasRT500 russia gate was fake lmao
It's amazing his plan can be swayed by political influence
Gosh you’re stupid. It’s not a “plan”
It is clear that this guy is not making a prediction (!) instead he is offering the Democrats a reason to fight n not leave the party!
Trump can run in 2024. Imagine that !
hopefully he will be running from behind bars where he and his pardoned cabinet members belong
Well this aged well LOL
Haley, Noem or DeSantis would be great candidates if legal issues prevent Trump from running.
What, who, and will there be anyone left alive in his state to vote for him.
@@I_Have_The_Most_Japanese_Music HAHAHAHA
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣YEA, RIGHT, ONLY IF THE DOMINION MACHINES ARE UP AND RUNNING AGAIN!!!!
I done heer'ed Obama ware born in kenya!
Ths fool is crazy! I wondr how much CNN n PMSNBC r paying hm to say these thngs!😆😂
President Biden said he will run again
he want but who know what will happen
Jesus Christ can save
@@kawediloru7810 cause He sacrificed Himself for your sins
@@kawediloru7810 even if they get persecuted,they still have great reward in Heaven
Also,"if the world hated you,remember it hated Me first " that should prove it,and your proving it.
What a fool.
Thank you Prof Lichmam
As of what's happening with Biden right now, I don't think he's winning.
This was a waste of time watching this!
If the vote is stolen again
so in reality you gave us nothing
im gonna predict the keys right now, but they are 100% gonna change!:
1. Party Mandate (flip possible, the House Dems have a slim majority now)
2. Contest (flip not possible, it's gonna be likely Harris, i doubt AOC will successfully primary her)
3. Incumbency (flip possible, i don't see Biden running again)
4. Third Party (unknown, that's a wild guess to make so im not gonna make it)
5. Short-term economy (flip may not be possible, the economy is almost returning to normal even tho Biden hasn't been seated yet)
6. Long-term economy (flip may not be possible, we just need to look at how long a recovery keeps the economy up, in 4 years i don't see it crashing again with Biden)
7. Policy Change (flip not possible, Biden is very likely to change and overturn many Trump policies just like Trump did on Obama's)
8. Social Unrest (flip may be possible, our country is still very divided, even if Biden does try to heal the nation, i think he's gonna fail)
9. Scandal (flip not possible, talk about Hunter Biden all you want, insufficient evidence is not gonna sway people, and voters didn't even care even if that really was a scandal)
10. Foreign/Military failure (flip may not be possible, i don't see us going to war with a nation anytime soon, but this is a wild card, let's say, if Iran doesn't make a new deal with the US, then flip could happen, but I don't see Iran gonna get more outraged)
11. Foreign/Military success (flip not possible, Iran Deal 2.0 is very much likely gonna happen, i can see it)
12. Incumbent Charisma (flip possible, i don't see Biden or Harris as charismatic at all)
13. Challenger charisma (flip not possible, even if you run Trump, a Trump ally, or even a GOP moderate, i really doubt they'll get much praise, the GOP has to be united first around a candidate before you can flip this key)
Overall score range: 3-7 keys overturned, so it's anyone's game at this point. but there is a minimum of 3 already to me, so the Dems should be aware and not mess up anywhere else.
Biden will be 84 in 2024, doubt very much he runs again, if he's even still alive. GOP very likely to flip House and Senate; if they take either or both, there will be major investigations of Biden, putting Hunter Biden, mountains of evidence, and his irrefutable identity as the "Big Guy" on the front page. No chance Senate would Biden from office (though Hunter Biden and exposure as the "Big Guy" may cause him to resign with age and health problems as an excuse). But given what the Democratic House did to Trump - impeaching him on false charges - I would put odds above average that a GOP House will impeach Biden on true, irrefutable charges. Finally, the JCPOA is dead.
Great Analysis Gene. OP has a good analysis too. Funny everything really is numbers. This world is a bunch of 1's and 0's.
@@theokayboomer9745 false charges what false charges if your talking about jan 6 he did start the riot
@@Alx_sis did not
@@yMMahmood0990 it was a psyop
This didn't age well 🤣
24 hasn't happened yet
They have their clown Trump and they want him to run again! 😑
It will be a rerun: the clown vs the puppet-mummy.
The Road for the White House in 2024 The Presidential Competition🗽🗽🗽🗽🗽🗽🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
Two words:
Ron DeSantis
This guy doesn’t have a perfect streak. He had Gore in 2000
Untrue.
He acts so cocky
How's that "prediction" now?....LMAO. He'll be lucky to leave the White House alive after what he's done.
That's exactly what I thought, also! There is no way Biden would win again, unless the election was rigged, like the 2020 election. That's the only reason he won in 2020! Democrats know they're toast in the 2022 midterms, and they know they will never be able to find a candidate for 2024 who could beat Trump, LEGITIMATELY and LEGALLY. The sad, and infuriating thing is that even when the Republicans win back the House in 2022, they won't do a thing to Biden. They won't impeach him, because Mitch McConnell already said that they weren't going to do anything to Biden. Kevin McCarthy even said that impeaching Biden won't happen on his watch! If the Republicans would play as dirty as the Dems do, and would actually fight fire with fire, they could get a lot done, and get a lot of these corrupt Dems out of office. But, they want to "take the high road," and they want to "civil" towards Democrats, when they know good and well that the Democrats will NEVER return the favor, and will NEVER be civil towards them! You can be as nice as you can to Democrats, you can be civil towards them, and try to find common ground, and they will NOT be the same way towards you! You can be be nice to them, and even give them what they want, and they will not give you the same courtesy, and will treat you even worse! We need to vote out Republicans like McCarthy, and McConnell, and replace them with Republicans like Marjorie Taylor Greene, Matt Gaetz, Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley, Jim Jordan, Madison Cawthorne, Lauren Boebert, and Elise Stefanik! Now THOSE are the kind of Republicans we need in the majority of Congress and the Senate! Things would actually get done, and they would NOT allow Democrats to get away with the things they've done!
😂🤣☝🏻
He seems to be forgetting Trump was an incumbent when he ran last time.
The truth is this man is actually a woman inverted by his parents.
We never had a demented president before Alan
Biden has so much charisma that he will be hard to beat.. I think my cranky Jack Russell has more charm.
Ur joking right...
@@TheRealUSArmy I am joking that Biden has a great charisma! I am not joking that my jack russell is cranky. : )
@@katiescarlett5249 ahh pheww
The rear end of your Jack Russell has more charm than Trump.
My Jack Russell is better looking, and smarter than any politician especially Biden. 🐶