Allan Lichtman: The Keys to 2020 | Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO)
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- Опубликовано: 11 май 2024
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Professor and "The Case for Impeachment" author Allan Lichtman joins Bill to discuss what Democrats need to do to win in 2020.
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And he did it again.
thanks Allan Lichtman - for being super smart and engaging to listen to - your energy is contagious - hope the Democratic
candidates are listening too-
Gale Patrick just don’t listen to him on personal finance. Taking out a mortgage to fund your political campaign is very stupid. Only a financially illiterate person would do that.
@@fredfriedman-sowell1864 That shows Allan has a spine and he is passionate. Reminds me of A. Lincoln.
Alan should get more airtime.
And better wig.
This is the positive vibe America needs, more of Allan please. Hire him Democrats!!!! 😊💙
@RavenPoe His current keys are in Biden's favor this time but I'd take it with a grain of salt because Trump is so unpredictable.
@@eec589 he did say Trump will win in 2016
Everyone ignored him then
serixirose Yeah, he got a couple of elections wrong but plenty more correct.
Tell Dems not to forget about the Senate.
We can forget about having a choice. That belongs to the Israel lobby. AIPAC selects our pres. We act like we are doing things, but just spinning our wheels.
Dave Alberts This might be the dumbest thing I have ever read. Though now I see where Omar gets her support.
Fred Larson, sounds like something a Zionist would say. Dancing Israelis, lucky Larry Silverstein.
Fred Larson and we all know where lying ass trump gets his support
Maybe Nancy Pelosi can handle that if she don't get too old & stupid (but you've already heard about the doctored video done by the Repubs.) after all she did say they know exactly what they are doing it's just a matter of time.
Bill, would you please stop interrupting your guests? You have great guests and then you don't let them talk.
J D I think it has to do with
timing of the show by technicians. Because it’s
live it’s hard. Maybe the show should be longer
I don't like interviewers who are talking with an expert but the interviewer is trying to correct the expert. Bill just ends up clouding this guy's important and clear message.
Let the expert speak so we can learn.
If Bill's got nothing sharp to say then please don't say it.
The Keys to 2020: Get rid of Mitch McConnell.
He is a fucking traitor.
That worthless POS must GO!!!!
I wish people would put just as much energy into winning the Senate majority as they do fighting about the Presidential primary. If a Democrat wins the Presidency but doesn’t control the Senate nothing will get done as Mitch will just block everything.
@@user98xp /understatement I would have capitalized fucking.
Boy, you said it. This isn't about Trump at all. It's been about McConnell (and the Senate) since before Trump showed up on the scene slinging his bad (but apparently charismatic?) weave around.
Terrific line..."We have a Republican Party with no principles but a spine, and we have a Democratic Party with principles but no spine."
The only principal the Dems have is institutionalizing the 1930's constitution of the Soviet Union....No Joke , go look up Stalin's constitution and compare it line by line with Democrat stump speeches.
And I'm not letting the GOP off the hook because there are MANY never Trumper's that would be just fine with that.
@@MichaelSmith-xb5cp So everything that soviet Russia stood for is bad? Could it be that all political viewpoints have something to offer? Seems you have a defined fear of things you clearly don't understand. The fact that Trumpanzees are cool with his love affair with Putin mystifies me. Is Putin suddenly a modern theorist? A person deeply involved in an admiration of humanity? This is, of course, the old Guelph vs. Ghibelline argument. Many people are willing to lie about their true beliefs. Honest Democrats & honest Republicans will not do this. Dishonest adherents will always be willing to lie to further their cause. Dishonesty is rampant today. Hope our species survives...
The problem with communism is it would be the perfect system, everyone working together to help each other, if humanity didn’t include evil fucks. But since they exist, it just won’t work.
This is the best line ever from him, no principals, which they’ve shown over and over, look at Carolina’s House in 2016, that took both a spine and no principals to circumvent Democracy by stealing the newly elected governors powers before he could take office. If only the Democrats could grow enough spine to choose Bernie Sanders.
@@ticnatz I lived in former Yugoslavia and we were far better than Soviet union so can tell you first hand. One party only. Talking against the party is a crime, in some cases, you go to prison and in some cases, you just vanish. Not many things to buy in stores, if there is, usually there is no money. Out of 45 years Yugoslavia existed, at least 15 people were hungry. Corruption - it is more important that you are communist then competent. Yugoslavia started in a bloody war and eventually ended in a bloody war. No private companies allowed, except small ones. If you are an entrepreneur you are a citizen of the second row. After country collapsed, also economy collapsed, not being able to compete on the free market. Today Russia is far different then the Soviet Union, it relays on the free market and has its roots in Christianity.
A very funny line when one considers the Democrats are the party of slavery and the KKK... who hate the Constitution... and support abortion up to the time of birth. They're quite disgusting, actually.
"It's Congressional malpractice not to invoke the proper Constitutional rhetoric of Impeachment"..
I might be wrong, but I thought he said "remedy", not "rhetoric". Anyway, it's hard to understand him because of the cheers of the crowd.
@@DaGodFadder69 - If house votes for Impeachment it still stands, it's like an indictment or being brought up on charges I guess, but he just doesn't get removed from office if the Senate doesn't convict. This is why our Senate races are so important. I think many of the Dem Presidential and Governor candidates who almost won should run for Senate
@@DaGodFadder69 - I'm not gonna debate that with you. Just read the Mueller report and I watched the whole dang testimony and that's not what he said at all! Trump is in love with Putin. He's been praising him since day one. Listen back to all his comments ON TAPE. I just heard another one on his phone call that caused so much controversy with the Australian President who disagreed with him. Trump again talked about how much easier it was to talk to Putin. If you want a government like China, North Korea, Saudi Arabia and Russia.....Then move there.
*It's August 5, 2020 and he says Trump will LOSE in November.*
Lichtman makes so much sense. Damn Dems GROW A SPINE!!!
TKJ Nap If the Dems has spines the USA wouldn’t have those abysmal trade deals with China and the rest of Asia contributing to the $800 billion trade deficit and millions of job losses.
Impeach for WHAT! There was NO crime committed! You don't get to make up crimes! Nancy actually got this one right and is trying to tell the far left wackos in her party that it's a mistake with this impeachment nonsense!
Well.. this year it’s biden for win. Said by Lichtman
I dont know who that guy is.But he sounds like he Knows what his talking About 👍
He does. Here's a link to his book ruclips.net/video/xrJv_n9OmVk/видео.html You can work out or do the dishes to it :)
He’s the professor that has correctly predicted every president for 40 years
I encourage everyone to look this guy up and read his books. Amazing guy!
CONGRATS PROFESSOR - GOOD CALL!!!
Lichtman. The real MVP
Dems! Wake up and listen to this guy!!!
Stop listening to people repeat the falsehood that dems have no spine.
Bill Maher himself has proven many times that Republicans get a free pass from the Press and Public, while the Democrats are expected to be Jesus incarnate....with charisma.
See "The Magic R" new rules.....
I have watched Democrats exhibit an endless stream of courage and statesmanship and the Press and Public don't care.
People treat Democrats the same way they treat the minorities that make up the Party....like doormats.
Yeah. Now it’s biden for win says Alan
A spine with no principles or principles with no spine... Yeah, that sums it up nicely
Democrats have no principles, its why they're latching onto the regressive and racist Far-Left ideology of Cultural Marxism and Identity Politics. When candidates apologize for being white, or think their gender or race means they're owed the Presidency, then its clear they lack any sort of true principled stance. The Democrats are now the party of Far-Left extremism, that defend terrorist groups like AntiFa and call for violence against political rivals and fellow citizens.
@@My-Name-Isnt-Important You mean like Donald did during his rallies? GTFO. Regressive describes the entire Boomer population and anyone getting their "news" from on an entertainment channel called Fox News. The EXCEPTIONS to the rule are Warren, Bernie, Noam Chomskie, etc. True Progressives are anything but regressive. I'm pretty sure you don't even know what the word means.
@@johnbrooke6867 Clearly you don't know about *Evergreen State College,* where Progressive students wanted Segregation, and threatened and harassed their professor so much, that he had to leave the college. Its the Far-Left out attacking people and calling for violence. You don't see others out in the streets rampaging and destroying property and attacking random people.
@@My-Name-Isnt-Important cant tell if you're a troll or only get your information from hyper partisan right wing conspiracy websites
@@nathanbruce1992 So you think Bret Weinstein being chased from Evergreen State College is a conspiracy theory? There are videos of it taking place, and multiple News publications wrote about it. I suppose you think the New York Times is a right wing partisan conspiracy website then, since they and many many others discussed it. Its clear *YOU* are an extremist to label anything that talks about events you don't want to hear about are a conspiracy theory.
www.nytimes.com/2017/06/01/opinion/when-the-left-turns-on-its-own.html
Nominate Sanders or Warren. That's really all there is to it. Not rocket science.
drumpf will never let Warren live down her exaggerated ancestry. Bernie's age will scare people off. That's not me talking, just my prediction of what others will say.
Cool. You're wrong, but hot take, bro.
Lol. Warren got hoodwinked by Trump by releasing her DNA results. Keep grandma in the Senate.
Ya go with either of those an kiss 2020 goodbye. None of the candidates are good. None of them. The center left crowd will vote for Trump for the most part. They need someone who will call out the obvious bullshit we see day in and out. Flipflopping amoebas who are self serving and over promising.
@earth ocean I am aware of this. I was responding to the OP's comment on the two candidates he mentioned.
Most accurate scenario! Great interview!!!
Allan Lichtman is a very sensible person
Thank you Alan Rickman (08:06) ?!
R.I.P prof.Snape.
lori gervais He’s all yours! Please take him...far, far away!
@@SKC193 you got something bad to say about Allan Rickman?
AnDarShow this comment wins
Such a 101 advice for the Dems. Very spicy interview!
I don’t know who he is but I love everything he said. So tired of that “electability” narrative that he just debunked the crap out of.
He didn't debunk anything. His response to Maher was poorer than I expected. He neglected to mention the disaster of the highly progressive McGovern and Mondale campaigns, both being annihilated, McGovern losing 49 states to Nixon! Clinton was a centrist because the Dems realized they weren`t going to win another presidential election for another 40 years if they didn`t move to the center. He is right about personality though. Had Hillary had the same politics but had a completely different personality, she would have won. But if you want another 1972, go ahead and double down on ``we must nominate Democratic Socialists or I won`t vote`` that I hear repeated far too much from the Woke crowd. They will give the election to Trump.
Matty Blue
I don’t disagree with you. Anyone who doesn’t vote out of protest is a fool, and this presidency should serve as a lesson that people never forget.
But as far as socialists go, there is a system in place to defame and discredit them at every turn because they don’t want another FDR. The establishment has spent decades preaching scare tactics while trying to undo everything Roosevelt accomplished by vilifying workers unions which has led to 40 years of stagnant wage growth. They have also fought to chip away funding for Medicare & Social Security (not to mention public schools). What I’m getting at is that capitalism unchecked is backing people into a corner and they are creating a nation full of populists who will eventually come together to demand change, no matter how many times the establishment recycles cultural issues like abortion rights & immigration policy to divide people every election cycle. They’re running out options for divisive talking points.
@@MrBlue-lr8ci Everything you've said is spot-on. IMO Maher didn't push back at this guy anywhere near hard enough. I think he's a borderline crank.
'Predicting all elections correctly since 2004' amounts to getting four coin tosses in a row right. That's 16-1. That is not impressive, especially since three of those four elections had very heavy favourites. There are hundreds if not thousands of political analysts who predict elections in the US. Many, many of them will have better records than this guy; the only reason people have picked up on him is because he's a mouthy, confident guy who pretends he has some kind of magic formula for calculating chances. Even there though, notice that when Maher questions him about his categorisations of Clinton he wriggles on the spot and starts bending the rules of his own formula to make it fit.
When someone starts telling us that we have to impeach Trump, a pointless move that would be immediately vetoed by the GOP and that is not popular with moderate voters(and obviously not with Trump supporters), we should demand a hell of a lot better evidence than someone getting...four election predictions in sixteen years right.
@Michael Anderson -- I've despised the Clintons for decades, but anyone with "zero regrets" over voting for the worst American president in living memory needs to consult a mental health professional ASAP.
@Michael Anderson -- Obama was a mediocre POTUS but at least not totally incompetent. After all, he did manage to shepherd through a fairly effective recovery from Bush Jr.'s disastrous economic meltdown, the worst such downturn since 1929. That said, Bush Jr. is merely stupid and tended to follow bad advice, but at least he seemed to have good intentions -- Trump has no idea what his intentions are apart from lining the family coffers and gratifying his delicate ego. The absence of any fucking idea of what he's doing is what makes him the worst.
Bill Maher: "This guy knows his stuff!"
2 minutes later
Bill Maher: "I don't agree with you. I think you're wrong."
Right.
1- you admit to the trait the other person shows and allows you to listen.
2- you don't agree with the context of the idea. Your listening helps with understanding.
Bill agrees "mostly" but his issue is about WINNING. They are talking about two different things. Most people understand quite well that the Senate will NOT impeach. Maher is only concerned about what get's the Left a win.
Gundum p
why did this guy just get me so hype on learning political history?! lol
4 years ago he did the same to me.
I love him as a professor, he's hot so much energy.
World Shaper thats dope! i bet in a classroom hes pretty amazing
Final Result was 7 negative keys against the Impeached Loser. 10 for 10
Incredible interview, he 100% nailed it with his closing line on democrats and Republicans. 7:30
A neat interesting guy I would not have seen anywhere else. Thanks Bill
Bill, One major key is for you to read the book.
World Shaper Did you read any of Lichtman’s books and have the ability to recite all of his 13 keys? Based on your comment, you sound like you didn’t and can’t as I at least read two of his books published in 2012 and 2017.
Amazing, Allan's a genius
Love Alan. He must be preserved
I am a network engineer I could protect all our election systems. I just need people to help me send a message to Congress to get that done.
Voting machines are not connected to the internet or able to be accessed remotely, so what exactly are you wanting protected?
surely you're smarter than all the best hackers in the world being backed by the biggest countries in the world. get your head out of your ass
Being from the UK it is hardly a surprise that this is my first time seeing this man (I'm not particularly sure how well known he is to Americans), but he made some very interesting points here. I hope he's brought back throughout the election cycle.
"Most charismatic Democratic candidate is Star Lord."
"Who?"
Why are Americans so addicted to being entertained....like CHILDREN....that they need "charisma" more than competency??
Garance Roberts those things are not mutually exclusive you ignoramus.
@@catzel1ps452 I see, and you apparently find insulting to be entertaining....
You want Jerry Springer, not a functional intelligently-run Democratic Republic.
Have a great...low....life.
Garance Roberts aha so typical of a sycophantic leftist to not be able to resist presumptions and posturing. True signs of an intellectual.
@@catzel1ps452 Again...insults...all ya got apparently
Gore should have been president 2000!!!
Yeah then we could have had 3 9/11 than just 1, way to go dumbass.
In my gut, Gore didn't champion for himself in Florida when the hanging Chad scandal broke.
Who and what motivated him to just let Florida have their way? Sent our country down a sh*tspiral having Bush junior as our puppet potus.
@@joylopez2735 What motivated him was that Bush was already selected. And like every General Electoral loser he was compensated. Selling Current TV and his documentary made him enough money to forget about his loss and completely walk away from politics.
@@thomasfriday431 that sounds about right.
@@thomasfriday431
I thought as much, sincerely.
Bill Maher.... Bill is my favorite. Just love him
Electing a centrist democrat is idiotic in the long-term. Sure they might be better than trump, but after their term people will notice that there’s been no change, and go back to the republicans.
YEZ Yang 2020
After this period of awful Republican behaviour and an even more disgusting President, why would anyone want them back. Why is necessary to be left or right? Balance is what we try to have in our lives, why not in politics?
Yeah because we all know that electing a communist will do wonders for improving this country.
Michele Kett with all due respect, centrists have been screwing people over for long enough.
imzjustplayin whilst Michele seems to be confused, you seem to be an idiot drunk on Fox News. Communist? Really?
It's funny how Maher and random commentators just know better than a professor whose prediction has been right every time.
His 'predictions' amount to getting _how_ many elections in a row right? Four. That's it. And three of those elections had very clear favourites. That is not impressive. Consider also that there are hundreds, even thousands, of political analysts in the media who make electoral predictions. On average, out of a thousand analysts, about seventy of them would have gotten the last four elections right just by chance.
The only vaguely impressive prediction was Trump in '16, and I predicted that myself.
If I were to use coin tosses to predict election results I'd be just as accurate as him once every sixteen times. That's not impressive, and that's if I never took into account who was the favourite. If I took into account who was the favourite each time it'd be more like a 1 in 4 chance.
This guy should not be taken seriously, and Maher didn't push back against his overconfidence enough imo. The idea that he's worked out some kind of golden formula simply because he got four elections right, three of which were extremely predictable, is absurd, especially when people are using his opinions to push for something as risky as impeachment.
Libtards will believe any scammer as long as they agree with them.
Libtards will believe any scammer as long as they agree with them.
WizardPatch bold thing to say while rightards (see what I did there) literally elected a guy president who‘s been a well documented con-artist his entire life, yet somehow so bad at it one would think he could only fool the dumbest of people.
@@mekullag9787 he is still less of a con than the Dems
That’s some of the clearest, most concise and most accurate political commentary around
Well said Allan !!! Democrats grow a spine
Come on bill just upload full episodes for us poor folks
Engaging guest with some interesting things to say.
Finally Bill has someone that knows exactly what he's talking about, and Bill just dismisses the absolute on-fleck points he is making.
C'mon Bill, quit being so politically correct. Just because he didn't give you the answers you want, you just dismiss it?
Andrew Yang!
I do like him...
Yang wont win tho. Maybe 2024. Or later once the threats of automation become reality
@the business handler He talked about it in a very nuanced way, this isn't like an all or nothing thing. Here, check out the policy if you are interested: www.yang2020.com/policies/media-fragmentation/ I hope you can agree that this is quite different from censorship.
Sanders has a huge spine! Check the numbers from 2016, he was the Only candidate that could beat trump! Show those facts !
He doesn't have the same pull the same force today. Sadly
2kvideos 2K videos I like Bernie/Warren too but Murica is so mind fkd if you ask for your tax dollars to work for you that is somehow unconscionable.
@Jo P What you're saying is innacurate. Him and Tulsi are the ONLY ones pushing for a M4A single payer system. Everyone else is pushing a watered down version. They are also the only ones that want to end the offensive illegal wars.
But that would hurt MSN Golden Grandfather Biden. Smh
Best show ever tonight!!!!
Except for that Mair idiot
He is absolutely right. Get rough as this will energise the base.
This guy is brilliant...can I vote for him?
I love Bill he is a serious thinker while being funny ...
The Obama tan suit! See America ... it plays.
@Respect/Walk Actually that would be, most agnostics.
@Eileen Farrar leave him be, you know how the bully picks with the person they are most jealous of. Well, that's what he's doing in every post he makes.
Monologue, one on one interview then overtime . That’s the routine if you’re in the UK . Need to wait 3 days to watch the panel discussion. 😂
Bill let him talk!!!
This guy gets it
Manny S, he knows who is gonna win because AIPAC selects our president and uses media to make it a happen.
How about nominating someone closer to the center who is not a corporate POS.
NANCY PELOSI ARE YOU LISTENING??????????
simple ,you elect bernie and not worry anymore and lead this country ahead
Jesus, they are talking about electing Bernie Sanders without saying Bernie Sanders.
Democrats need to grow a dam spine !!! Thanks Alan your word is gold !
IMPEACH ❗️❗️❗️
We need to have more people like this in politics now!
His guy is so damn good
I'm afraid he won't make the major channels as far as an interview is concerned. He's comfortable in the skin that he's in when it comes to leveling with people and telling the truth.
Fight away. My money is one the old jew. Truly an Elder. Has been preaching the solution for 20 years.
Let’s see what he says now 6/7/2020
i agree with allen; how what is the lercentage of of individuals from the keys that participate in the US Armed forces some way?
That was so good! You rule Bill! ☮
Does the third-party key always count against sitting president or not?
Andrew Yang holds all the keys!
#Yang2020
The real key to winning 2020 is to listen to the actual voters, not to strategists and focus groupers who claim to speak for them like this guy. They all have a system that works until it doesn't.
66% of Americans want to legalize weed. 56% support Medicare-for-All, 60% back a millionaire tax, and 62% are for free college. And guess what? The majority of independents support all of these. If the Democratic candidate just repeated these four things over and over again, Trump would lose.
Pbfreespace3 he lost last time, and how did that work out?
seraphonica running an establishment democrat will guarantee a trump
Win
Michael Anderson he most be anti white right
@Michael Anderson why are you using Beto as an example? He's not even polling in the top 5.
Trump appeals to ME! Holler.
Cool
Could you upload the videos in 1080p resolution please, it's very blurry when you watch on a Tv. Thanks in advance!! ;)
RUclips downgrades the resolution for Copyright reasons.
Even a broken clock is right twice a day. This guy is not an oracle.
His wig is hilarious
Pleasantly surprised by this guest! Based on who Bill typically brings on, I was anticipating an ivy league professor explaining to us how the status quo is awesome and why we need responsible elites (i.e., establishment figures) back in power. I just wish he ran through all thirteen of his "keys".
Aug 2020 Biden has more keys
Best guest since Bernie.
Very simple folks. Just win PA, WI and MI. Bernie is by far the best candidate for those states.
Nope nobody with a brain wants Bernie especially Wisconsin with all the farmers they don't want Eminent domain
We need a candidate. We will have 19 (a few with little press coverage have said they will step down, NPR reported it).
We need two primary Democratic Debates. One with 9 candidates, and one with 10.
What a waste of a guest to just have him at the start and end and keeping him in a room for the rest of the show. He should've been on the panel.
what the hell did he predict??
How does he feel now?
but but but this was about the JULY Ukrainian phone call NOT the 2020 election right?
Pete B. is exactly the person Allan's described, incredibly inspiring and articulate
@Michael Anderson lol You need to stop, you aren't even a Democrat. lol
i really like this guy, but that's gotta be a wig, right?
He looks like the guy with the question marks on his his suit
Galactic Warlock Like Jim Carey playing the Riddler?
@@itsjustmenova no he is the guy on infomercials
The free money guy.
This was really good and Bill and other coastal liberals should take his advice on picking someone (like Bernie) who isn't a middle of the road, centrist who gives and gives and gets nothing from Conservatives and effectively are Right Wingers.
What about the social unrest key? Isn’t that a negative? Everyone is quitting.
There's not such thing as principles without a spine. If you don't defend your principles, if you don't fight for them, they don't exist.
Because of their lack of fight against the media and the right wing I believe the centrist's job is to take a dive.
"If I only had a spine."
It turns out he is real MVP! He predicated Trumps win and also predicated Impeachement! And bammm Impeachement is official! This guy is a guru.
Bill please request Tim Pool for upcoming panel member.
Kamela should pick up the sax...
Wow I didn’t realize there are so many Pence supporters in the comment section
Beto had some charisma but is weak af, no ideas and apologized for his whiteness
@Michael Anderson No worries, Beto doesn't have a chance anymore! He will fail miserably in the debates ...
What the fuck does "pre-judge," mean?
Tim Ryan though is a terrific politician, but many don't know him.
I am still betting that Pelosi is delaying in order to better time when impeachment would most hurt the president.
Agreed, the electorate sometimes "can't see the forest for the trees." The super fast pace of technology giving us what we want has lowered our ability to appreciate a slower deliberate pacing.
What he didn't mention is failed impeachment is horrible strategy. Clinton.
The speaker of the house looks more and more like she is not going to keep her foot on the snake