Tesla Launches to Expand Sales in New Continent!
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- Опубликовано: 14 май 2024
- Larry Goldberg is a serial entrepreneur (co-founder of Sapiens Decision), angel investor, and co-author of the book “The Decision Model”.
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Herbert
16:30 Re: New Models. Agree with Larry. At least two distinct models on 8/8.
Mexican car sales were 4,000,000 in 2023. Just a little smaller than Germany's. I had no idea the Mexican car market was so large.
Chile, population 20 million, has the highest per person GDP of Latin American countries, and ranked 45th. It is stable and
although some consider it "2nd World" due to low industrial base it has copper, lithium and great horticulture. The people are wonderful.
I love Larry's boldness in his predictions, and have learned to never discount his forecasting assertions. He has special blood.
I agree with Larry. They are going to reveal both. FSD is not ready yet. I have it on two cars. Yes its good but not there yet. Too much risk to put all our eggs in one basket.
Wow, just the possibility of both versions of the next generation model on 08-08-2024 is exciting! I have my doubts, but it is dangerous to underestimate either Larry Goldberg or Elon Musk.
Unveiling of the consumer "model 2" would be a bad idea, because of the Osbourne effect, especially in a difficult market situation as is now. Robotaxi unveiling does not have these issues, as it will be most likely not purchasable by the public.
Wow Larry. Must be the French Wine. Love his bold statements..
I agree with Larry on most topics, but I'm with Herbert on this one. Unless Tesla is ready to release the compact en-mass by the end of Q4 (which I don't think they'll be ready to do), Tesla won't show it because if they do, it will Osbourne the m3 and mY until they are ready to release the compact. My guess, and it's just that, is the compact will be ready for mass production in mid to late 2025.
Yes, as much as I want them to reveal a new product, I do not want them cannibalizing the sales of the model 3! We’ve got to think long-term about this!
Herbert is a smart guy. The only reason to watch Randy Kirk is for his guests. . . Larry Goldberg in particular.
I completely agree. Randy injects his petty partisan political posture into his clips. Larry is da bomb!
I would not go so far as to say the only reason to watch Randy Kirk is for his guests, but I strongly agree his guests are the best reason to watch.
If one listens to BofA, which I don't, you would believe that the only profit generator for Tesla is cars. Funny how they ignore Megapacks and the supercharger network, not to mention the potential of FSD, robotaxi and bot. Like so many commercial analyst firms, BofA is very short-sighted.
Love that Only Herbert's video is the only consistent youtube content I watch the auto minimize as pip on mobile.
anybody else wonder why tesla charging stations don't have solar roofs and powerwalls?
I agree with larry on both
I'm with Larry.....
I’m with Larry that they WILL reveal both and gen2 compact will be available to order!
It is possible that Optimus might also be revealed as the surprise element (just a wild guess, not backed by any data or info)
@herbert the reason Larry is right about the low priced vehicle being released on 8/8 is that they have to present then unboxed platform and it will be obvious that with that you simply can’t add the current Cyber truck steering box and you have the low cost car.
I thought it's Antarctica from the title...
They will show that the unbox method will be used to build the new gen consumer car and the robo taxi. I could a system where they build 90% of the car then choose robo taxi model or consumer model by adding a steering wheel etc in the final stages. That is one of the main advantages of the unboxed method is having that optionality.
I'm with Herbert this time
@BrighterwithHerbert Tesla has not said that they will unveil a robotaxi on 8/8.
They will make some robotaxi-relevant announcement.
Colombia 🇨🇴 you missed us there 😂
Population of Chile 19.6 M, about 1/2 the size of California. In size, Chile 292,000 sq mi, CA 163,000 sq mi. So, smaller pop in bigger space.GDP Chile $301 B, CA almost $3.6 T, so more than 1000 x bigger. CA new vehicle registrations annually about 2 million. Chile just over 300,000, maybe 315,000-320,000. So, Chile is punching above it's weight in terms of Pop/Car sales, and certainly in GDP/Car sales. The supercharger network will be more like a string of pearls as Chile is 2,670 miles N-S and very narrow E-W. However, there is ONE center of population with Santiago being about 1/4 of the population by itself and the largest towns being nearby so the central 900 miles are the most critical and then the N and S sections where almost nobody lives will come as needed. And that's the economic engine of Chile too, the center 1/3. So call it 10 million living in 100,000 sq miles and probably at least $250 B in economic activity. That's a decent market. Not as good as LA County with 10 M people, in 4,753 sq miles, and a GDP of $790 B
Chile should be fairly easy to build out the recharging infrastructure.
That's 10x bigger economy, not 1000x
BOA analysts are as clueless about Tesla as Warren Buffett.
The difference is Warren admits.He doesn't understand tesla bank of america pretends they do
Average price of a new car in Brazil is 12~15k and that includes a ton of taxes (Source: Hacker News)
Tesla need not worry about Brazil - the VAST majority of the population can't afford one.
Tesla's focus on Robotaxis will win - and is the future.
SALES of actual cars in markets that matter will soon be a redundant concept.
Larry is 100% correct, both cars unveiled - mainly because they are very similar and can be produced off the same platform.
They will be switch between the 2 very easily in terms of production because of the steer by wire and brake by wire (new innovation for these 2 cars)
Everything will be produced as a robotaxi first. Next gen car will simply be a robotaxi with additional steps to add pedals and steering wheel and then hooking the wire up to them.
Essentially no differences between them.
I’m hoping Larry is correct. But that leaves one big problem - where will they be made? Is Giga Texas ready to pump them out in sufficient numbers? We still don’t have Giga Mexico nor any other facility to make it, and surely, to avoid Osbourning the 3 and the Y too badly they need to announce the compact almost as soon as they start deliveries.
The next Generation unboxed production line has been under development at Giga Texas, the line will produce multiple models.
@@Richard-cq4kv I’m aware. But the impression I took was that it was not intended to be a particularly massive output from that site - more a pilot line to work out the details before starting tooling for Mexico and other potential locations.
Surely when the compact car and the Robotaxi are revealed, they need to be in production and delivering almost immediately?
Bank of America doesn't seem to understand that people trade in their cars every 3 to 5 years and Tesla has like 80% brand loyalty. So the 6 million cars currently on the road will have more than half of those traded in by 2027 and 80% of that number will buy another Tesla. So the math on that works out to be over 3 million traded in and like two and a half million repurchasing a Tesla in that year and repeating every year after, plus new customers. So you end up with 3 million, then 4 million, then 5 million and so on. Over time it will look like apples market share of the smartphone business.
Maybe they will reveal the general idea of a platform that can do BOTH robo and 25000 keep it neutral.
On the last point you can't both be right but you could both be wrong!
Colombia isn't too small a market. almost as big as Chile, no?
Larry is right about Brazil being the biggest, by far! too bad about this feud.
Once again I think I agree with Larry. Elon said he will reveal the compact this year so why have 2 events.
I think it is very important to put principles above profit. I am sorry for the Brazilian people, but it is their duty to get rid of these corrupt politicians and judges.
they will have a lot inventory to sell in quarter 2
Regardless of polar views, it is important to be respectful at all times
Brazil is a big market with big cities that give a european flavor. Just focus on Sao Paulo, they play in Rio, but they work in Sao Paulo. A metro population of 22 million. Tesla could focus on home and buisness charging. Import Model S, X and Cybertrucks. Open a gigafactory for Model Y. Expect similar buisness to Berlin.
Hopefully a new government won’t class Elon a criminal and see the benefits to the country as China and Berlin in Germany has seen with Tesla manufacturing there
On 8/8 Tesla will reveal robotaxis in Texas and the next gen in China. Musk indicated 8/8 is a lucky Chinese number. Jeannine
Larry could be on to something, if Tesla opens reservations at $100 and the get 4 million that’s $400M in extra cash reserves
It's equally as likely for the compact to be unvailed at the same time, as not.
I don't see why Herbert freaking out.
On August 8th they will roll out the robo taxi and then just when everyone thinks that's the end, Elon will pull a "one more thing" and out will roll a compact car with a steering wheel. And he will announce they are starting production in January on the compact car.
sales are going down this year, M2 delayed, layoffs, energy flat for 5Q etc
stock is going below $100
The hell is happening in Japan.
Paralysis.
Good.....Sell those cars !!!!!!
2 cars, on 8/8!
Herbert setting himself up to be wrong - again. 😁
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I have heard a lot of wonderful things about Andras Bohm on the news but didn't believe it until now.
I'm willing to make consultations to improve my situation. What is the most reliable medium to reach him please?
his website appeared right away, You've saved me several hours of research, I appreciate it..
If Herbert keep trying to correct guests and saying stuff like “no that isn’t going happen, and it’s going to happen like this” I’m going to have to stop watching. It’s getting really annoying when you say 100% the guest is wrong and you think it’s happening forsure in the way you think it is.
This is the nonsense. I’m talking about with Elon. His political views are costing Tesla sales. Brazil is a potentially huge market, where our stock could benefit from! Why Elon, why?!
Elon's level of hubris is off the charts.
What exactly are his political views you speak of? The importance of free speech?
@@ronchristensen2474almost always siding with the far-right, maybe.
@@timeglisky7573 Examples? I haven't heard say anything that crazy.
What is BoA talking about, Tesla pentration of the US car market is @5-8%.
BoA makes it sound like the BEV market has reached saturation.
There is a very long runway of sales to go for Tesla in North America and globally. The average ICE car in the US is @$38k, so consumers can afford to buy cars.
Macro ecomonics are not favourable though and the massive FUD over the last 10yrs by ICE OEMs has not helpes. They have screwed themselves on their own BEVs by only now adoptin NASCs Tesla chargers. This has concocted to slow their own sales of BEVs in the US. The IRA subsidies help a lot though, so it could be worst for Tesla and other BEV OEMs if Biden had not done the IRA.
I think Tesla BEVs are about parity with ICE cars post IRA, in terms of the average prices on 3 and Y now, so BoF is talking BS in my view.
The Total Cost of Ownership is even more imporant in high interest and high gas price environment, so BEVs and Tesla is winning and will continue to grow. Elon did not say Tesla will grow 50% forever 😳😊.
Q2 and Q3 will still be ok performance given all the above I think and Q4 also. This will prove the Tesla story is atill intact.
Note:
China BEV sales has not collapsed given that China is still driving out ICE cars from the market as BEVs take more share. The destruction of ICE cars and the overtaking by BEVs is around the corner in my view. China is keeping the subsidies on BEVs even as prices fall. The Chinese want ICE dead and they want Western ICE OEMs in China dead even quicker.
So Tesla is golden in China but will be blocked from taking over BYD, for obvious reasons so China will not risk allowing Tesla to expand past Shanghai until maybe in 2026. This will give BYD the chance to be ready for Tesla's FSD and $25k next gen car and platform.
This is why China IS allowing Tesla to build grid scale battery packs in China since it will not allow them expand car productuon, as much as Elon wants.
What?