Is the world heading for a war in Taiwan? Why the West will make the real difference.
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- Опубликовано: 12 июл 2024
- Is the world heading for a war in Taiwan? Why the West will make the real difference.
#chinasnewnormal #taiwanwar #pelositaiwan #taiwanstrait
DISCLAIMER: When I talk about Taiwan, I refer to Republic of China. When I talk about China, I refer to People's Republic of China. I deliberately do not mention the official R.O.C and P.R.C names as most people outside Asia are less familiar with these acronyms than with the names Taiwan and China. This is done for ease of understanding, not as a statement that Taiwan is a country.
CONTENT
00:00 Recap video about history of Taiwan. Does Taiwan belong to China?
01:55 Explanation on 1 LAW (Taiwan Relations Act), 3 Communiques and 6 Assurances that define how US is dealing with the One China/Taiwan question
07:49 The ambiguity of the Taiwan question
10:40 Why R.O.C changed after 2016 with the victory of DPP under Tsai Ing-Wen. How do the Taiwanese feel being Chinese and how do they view Beijing today?
13:44 Did Taiwan change because the worldview of China changed or because Taiwan has a different view of their own identity?
15:31 Why is Beijing so hung up on reuniting Taiwan with the mainland from a geopolitical point of view.
16:36 Why did Pelosi create all the tensions? Did she have a right to visit the island? Should she have visited Taiwan? Was the real issue Pelosi or Biden?
18:33 Does China and the West have the correct view on how the world views the reality? Which red line are Beijing and Washington crossing?
21:14 What are the real dangers to incite a war in Taiwan?
23:29 How do the Taiwanese see their future and a war? How do the Chinese look at a potential war and whether there would be a war? How does the West think about whether we will see a war in Taiwan?
25:40 What can we expect in the next months to come? What is the biggest danger for a mishap leading to a war?
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The one China treaty was signed and US and UN, etc. but as always US never respect international treaties, when it come to it.
Puerto Rico should be declared as a separate country. It is not a separate state of the US. How will the US react?
@@georgecherian6520 and Hawaii
@@drsmetal2747 Hawaii is already a state of our country for your information
@@georgecherian6520 sure....the independence movement in Hawaii must be an imagination then.
Just like U.S came up with the Iran Nuclear deal, yet the USA under Trump walked out of the deal that they've made. The U.S doesn't even respect treaties that they come up with.
Without the US interfering, China and Taiwan would be one already.
The US has tried every way to hang on to protect her interest, not the Taiwanese people.
Agree the first two sentances. Not the third. If the Taiwanese wanted to be part of China it would be very easy.
@@Andy-P _"Agree the first two sentances. Not the third."_
The U.S is primarily interested in protecting their own U.S interest, not the Taiwanese people. For example, the U.S is transfering Taiwan TMSC chip fabrication technology to Arizona, and once that is complete, there will no longer be a need for the U.S to defend the island if conflict breaks out in the Taiwan Strait.
@@Shenzhou. America wants to remain No1. That is her primary interest. Taiwan is a friend and ally. That is part of remaining No1. The US would still defend Taiwan. If Taiwan falls then Japan is threatened as China has made it clear it wants all the 1st Island chain in ECS. Good try and splitting allies but here the threat of China is just so strong.
@@Andy-P You said: _"Taiwan is a friend and ally. That is part of remaining No1."_
Your two sentences do not reinforce one another. Taiwan can still friendly relations with the U.S *regardless if the U.S is number 1* or number 2 and so on. The U.S primary interest is remaining number 1, and it's willing to use its allies (including Japan and Australia) as chess pieces to contain China's rise and maintain the U.S hegemonic rule.
You said: _"The US would still defend Taiwan."_
There is no guarantee of this. If U.S absorbs Taiwan's semiconductor technology and transfers it to Arizona, then there will no longer be any need for the U.S to defend the island if conflict breaks out in the Taiwan Strait. The U.S primary interest is maintaining their hegemonic rule.
You said: _"If Taiwan falls then Japan is threatened as China has made it clear it wants all the 1st Island chain in ECS."_
China only wants the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands in the East China Sea to be returned. Those islands were originally Chinese before Imperial Japan occupied them during the war. After the Japanese surrendered at the end of WWII, Japan agreed to relinquish all previously occupied territory, yet those islands were never returned back to China.
@@Shenzhou. Isn't it great we're living in the hegemonic evil US imperial empire that we're still able to express our views freely ?
Usa play with fire. Madness
If you know China, you should believe that China will pay any price for the reunification of Taiwan. I am worried that some countries do not believe this
Don't worry about that part. They do. They are prepared to bleed and pay gold just like China. The west has seen this before.
Agreed. Much like how Ukraine is a core interest for Russia (and not for USA), Taiwan island is also a core interest for mainland China (and not for USA). Countries who's core interests are threatened will put in maximum effort and resources into securing those interests.
Then China or better Xi and the party will learn wanting something doesn't mean you get something. Hitler wanted the world as well, didn't happen. Another idiot who paid any price for whatever ideological reason came to mind. Of course Xi will pay any price, same as Mao, it's not he who suffer and die in war, it's just his people, and what does he care about them.
China will pay any price for the reunification of Taiwan??? How about $500 per month installed payment???
The CCP will pay the blood of it's population for it's own goals. It happened before with over 60 million dead during Moas famine. It can certainly happen now when their economic crises are happening now.
Thank you Pascal, for your insight on China-US relations.
Why does the US keeps repeating the same mistakes? Always looking for separatists and discontents in other countries, taking their side, grooming them, arming them, and eventually jumping-in.
I've lived here in the US since I was 9 yers old and I am now 75 yrs old, and we have always been at war. Maybe because the US had such "success" in Latin America. They got a big reward from Mexico when it took over half of if its territory in 1848, the Panama Canal, Puerto Rico and so on.
This country is a war machine; we don't know how to live in peace.
The military industrial complex. More conflicts and more wars mean big $$ for them. The US is the #1 in arms sales.
@@kkyykao189 Soon after the French revolution, a French nobleman went to America for an extended stay. Then he wrote a book making the prediction that America was going to be a warlike nation. MIC is more like a symptom rather than the cause.
@@lipincheng His prediction is RIGHT on!
Many Mexicans fought on the side of Texas as they didn’t like the treatment of the king , emperor, whatever Mexico had at the time , who wasn’t Mexican at all . Puerto Rico asked to join the USA .. Soviets, now Putin , ccp , saudis , Iran, etc all interfere in other countries affairs and try to influence and support those whose policies, ideologies they support and undermine leaders they don’t like .. it’s been happening long before USA was established
it's not a mistake. Eisenhower delivered a farewell speech regarding the dangers of the military industrial complex. If every tool in your kit is a hammer, the solution to every problem is to bash it's head in
DISCLAIMER: When I talk about Taiwan, I refer to Republic of China. When I talk about China, I refer to People's Republic of China. I deliberately do not always mention the official R.O.C and P.R.C names as most people outside Asia are less familiar with these acronyms than with the names Taiwan and China. This is done for ease of understanding, not as a statement that Taiwan is a country.
Taiwan is a country. A very successful, democratic and free country. China is a dystopia with an oppressive and horrible communist dictatorship. The world should stop dealing with China like we now do with Russia until they become democratic and respect human rights.
The ROC is the government that once reigned entire nation of China encompassing both China's Mainland and China's Taiwan province from 1945 (when China won the war against Japan's invasion into China) to 1949 (when the ROC lost the entire China's mainland in the civil war, which has never ended ever since, to the PRC, the government which was founded in 1949). The PRC and the ROC do not recognize each other and both claim to be the sole legal representative of the entire nation of China, while since 1972 (or so) the United Nations recognizes only the PRC as the sole legitimate legal representative of the nation of China, which includes both China's Mainland and China's Taiwan Province and all associated islands and islets.
Hello Pascal, I live in a country just next to yours and spoke to one of my French colleaugues about the taiwan situation recently because he was interested in the topic.
The fact that people keep making simplifications like you did is in my opinion one of the reasons why ordinary people in the west would not understand the one China policy and that Taiwan belongs to China if you don’t make reference to ROC and PRC. people might not even see where the second China could be, which is actually the ROC. by its own law, the mainland is still part of the ROC even as of today and by PRC’s law taiwan is part of the PRC and none of the governments (CCP or DPP) has full control of the entire territory, which should be called “China”
Your explanation here is not enough and what your narrative in parts will be pushed by the westerners media alike. How many people goes to the comments sections to read? Thanks again to take the trouble to explain your thoughts.
@@chinoonlim and thank YOU for clarifying that you are a paid China troll.
Pascal, you would be doing the world a great favour by sending this video to the United States of Raytheon Senate. Keep up the great videos!!!
Pascal, The Taiwan Relation Act and the Six Assurances are not and had never been agreed or acknowledge by China. It is American internal policy and had never been agreed by China. America had few hundred military bases surrounding China - isn't this a threat to China? So who is the bully? Anyway, what is important is that China has the competency and strength to ensure that America can never dare to start a war within the first island chain. The West should be wise to spent their energy and resources to ensure they had the gas and energy this winter. China is concern of their economy and they are busy taking care of their own problem while they are well prepared for the evils and the satan.
Demonising the west! literally no wonder they don't trust the CCP. While China has strong advantages close to her shores - like Taiwan & Japan all superpower wars turn into world wars on the high sea's. There China is weaker than America and her allies.
Agreed. China is currently *at peace and not at war* with any country, since our last major conflict in 1979. Instead of making war, China is building infrastructure like _roads, railways, highways, bridges, tunnels, powerstations, dams, ports, airports,_ etc and investing in developing countries like Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and also African countries like Nigeria, Kenya, Chad, Sudan, Ghana, Mozambique, Tanzania, etc.
Whereas the United States is *warmonger* being involved in Gulf War, Iraq War, Afghan War, Libyan War, Syrian War, Yemen War, etc, even in the 21st century. USA is bombing in those Middle Eastern countries and enacting regime change by cutting off their "heads" (Saddam Hussein, Muammar Gaddafi, etc) and then installing their own US puppet governments in place. If anything, it sounds like the United States is a threat to global peace and stability.
the only two countries US can count on are Japan and South Korea, they 're US colonies and don't have a choice. US had dispersed most of its assets to Guam and beyond because of DF 26 Guam Express.
in the event of war, US carrier battle groups will just be moving targets for DF17, 21, and DF26. and don't forget they have it for fighter jets and ship-based version as well.
On the flip side, the One China Principle was never agreed or acknowledged by any one.
@@willengel2458 Because the CCP think Japan and South Korea (& Australia) are US colonies then you are correct. They don't have a choice. Facing Chinese vassal status if America looses. If it is all so easy for China then they would have attacked by now. Just like their friends the Russians - whose friendship knows no boundaries.
This is the best thought piece I’ve seen on the subject. It will take great skill, dialogue, and DIPLOMACY to prevent an unimaginable catastrophe. America needs to be wiser, China needs to remain patient, calm, and pragmatic, and the rest of the world has a stake in this too and needs to be constructive. In the end, peace and cooperation between US and China are in the interest of both countries and the world.
De facto backdoor talks can be provided by third countries.
The ASEAN bloc in Southeast Asia did an exemplary job in hosting both Chinese and American diplomatic peoples.
Roger Waters: Response to N
ruclips.net/video/98WH8K2Wjck/видео.html
The problem is Certain Lying, War Monger, War Hungry country don't want Peace for China
Expecting a country like USA that thrive on wars in other countries to actively seek peace is just a pipe dream. To have peace, all the USA needs to do is NOT interfere in other countries. Then how would its military complex make money? How would it maintain its political, military and dollar hegemony???
Great thought! but the real issue is not of China but the USA, a notorious blood loving warmonger. killing and pot stiring in looting all over the world. Least EU should do , ( sadly , NATO- dwarfts of the USA ) is to stay out of it, rather than complicate it.
Canada's highest court has ruled that Quebec cannot grant itself independence just by its own referendum. The Canadian parliament must amend the Canadian constitution to remove Quebec as a part of Canada in order for Quebec to gain independence. In other words, the whole of Canada, as represented in parliament, must decide. The Government of Spain takes the same view with regards to Catalonian independence. It is not for Catalonia to grant itself independence by referendum. This is western jurisprudence.
So, don't anybody tell me that when it comes to China, Taiwan can grant itself independence.
Well said. If the DPP separatists in Taiwan island want to declare independence from the mainland, then they should vacate the Chinese territory of Taiwan, and find some other plot of land to claim for themselves. Because Taiwan is an inalienable part of China.
Any one can grant itself independence IF they have the ability or power to do so. The question is: Do they have it????
fact
Quebec has nothing to do with Taiwan.
1. Unification is a must, and there is no room for negotiation. Unification cannot wait indefinitely too.
2. Mainland China has always been friendly towards Taiwan, allowing Taiwan to have a large surplus in the past 20 years. In the initial negotiation, because of the huge economic and ideological differences between the two sides of the strait, it was proposed that one country, two systems, Taiwan could have its own government, police, and even the army, but Taiwanese politicians were too greedy and wanted independence. Since the negotiation is fruitless, so have to choose another solution. During this process, the United States has not rested, constantly selling weapons to Taiwan, and constantly sending politicians to Taiwan for provocation. If China sells weapons to New York and talks about cooperation with the mayor of New York, what will the United States do?
3. In the context of the confrontation between China and the United States, the United States is more willing to provoke disputes between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, and let Taiwan be a pawn and cannon fodder. Like Russia and Ukraine, they are constantly adding fuel to the fire and arguing. The US kills many birds with one stone, who is the destroyer of peace?
Taiwan dosn't want to be ruled by Beijing. They see what happened in HK. CCP cannot be trusted.
US is always trying to sow death, destruction, and chaos on countries it does not like, that is the bottom line. Unfortunately it is able to do it under the banner of supporting freedom and democracy, with many willing fools eager to believe
DPP uses the tension as a leverage for its political gains, a typical way of winning elections in a democratic system. Its constitution is for Taiwan independence which is an absolute no for China mainland. In my opinion, there will be no war but a quick reunification through force. The rest of the world just need to accept it and we stop having this issue again and again.
I feel so privileged to be born into unified Vietnam. Wish unification for the motherland!
@@alanking7567 The liberal democracies have all that already. By allying with America they hope to keep it.
1. Current Taiwanese government is autocratic in nature and democratic in name only.
2. Taiwan engaged in a concerted effort in its education system to indoctrinate its citizen that they are not Chinese in nationality for a few decades. That can change with some re-education when united. With the same language, culture and traditions, it is not difficult.
3. When China demonstrates its overwhelming millitary power over over Taiwan, it is not going to use its force against Taiwan. The greater the superiority the less likely there is a war. It is contrary to Western thinking. When the West has overwhelming power, it attacks. When China has overpowering force, she bends her opponent to win without using its force. It is an millenium Chinese millitary strategy.
Carl von Clausewitz vs Sun Tzu.
It's really stupid that people that are lead to believe into democracy are also lead to support democracy elsewhere in the world. How can they achieve democracy abroad without even achieving it at home? They're so delusional.
More CCP double speak. Like the Russians liberating the Ukraine. By killing Ukranians who don't do as they say. The Taiwanese don't want liberation with CCP characteristics.
@@lijewy Well said. We all know that the US is not even a democracy, it is in fact a plutocracy, using a veneer of 'democracy and freedom' to hookwink to maintain its hegemonic status. However, its time in the sun is coming to an end, as clearly demonstrated by Ray Dalio in his Great Cycle exposition. This is actually the Asia Century and the US is making a huge ruckus as it sees itself unable to exert its influence like it used to.
Well said.
some people profit from war. regardless of outcome. and wouldn't be surprised if they already invested in nuclear fallout shelters
I can still remember when the first direct flights between China and Taiwan started in 2008, before that you always had to have a stopover in HK or somewhere else. More and more Taiwanese moved to China for work or study. You could also see the fist mainland tourists to Taiwan. Things were looking good. Makes you think what exactly went wrong. I think Trump and his trade war and subsequent relentless vilification of China had a lot to do with it. But fundamentally it’s about the rise of China and its threat to the US. And it looks like the poor people of Taiwan will be the victims in this dirty geopolitical game. It’s looking more and more like a lose-lose situation for them. Decoupling from China will be extremely painful but they also can’t disobey their US masters.
To end on a positive note, love your videos Pascal, keep up the good work!
I remember that too.
Thats a very nice and kind ending, beside the intelligent message, that is really needed in this context and that our host deserves.
Decades of propaganda in media, omitting Chinese history in school textbooks and a new generation of Taiwanese that barely knows much about China unlike the older generation.
Taiwan used to be one of _Four Asian Tigers_ but since democracy was introduced to Taiwan, it's economy is in slump, wages are stagnant, cost of living is rising and Taiwan graduates are leaving for jobs in the mainland or Singapore
_"From the '90s, Taiwan became a two-party system with more partisan disagreements on policy matters. This produced less effective policy making. Secondly, the ruling officials tend to be more conservative in Taiwan, so they do not enthusiastically push for policies to globalise and liberalise the island."_ - Ray Chou, Research Fellow, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica
...
Video: _How Taiwan Lost Its Roar And Its Young Talents | Insight | CNA Insider_ ruclips.net/video/P3BCnPb8qHY/видео.html
China developed as a free market and then Xi came, that's what happened. Trump didn't turn Taiwan into a democracy, they did that themselves, they want to keep living this way, not by a one party dictator.
Hongkong problem was NED
Taiwan's problem is NED as well.
@@tungli2827 taiwan's problem is hypocrisy of collective westerns plus one yellow-western wannabe
America is the troubles here!!!!
Yes, from China's point of view.
America has helped China many times but she asks nothing in return from China.
Good to mention that DDP remove and replace text in Education System .... Over the years, Taiwan being a Province is slowly removed from people's mind from young
That because over time it isn't
@@Andy-P can you educate me please. Thanks
@@Andy-P Over less than a decade for most of it’s history it was a part of China.
@@skydragon23101979 The island was annexed in 1683 by the Qing dynasty of China, and ceded to the Empire of Japan in 1895. That's is a lot of years before and 125 after.
@@Andy-P it was already part of the last Ming dynasty by 1622. Taiwan was returned back to China by 1945.
It'd be helpful to be reminded by the words of one of the world's most respected elder statesman, Singapore's founding father, Mr Lee Kuan Yew. In his book "One Man's View of the World", one of his responses to the question of Taiwan's reunification with the mainland, he said, "Taiwan is an emotional, national issue. It is part of China. It is a province that they first lost to the Dutch, then the Portuguese, then the Japanese. And they have always considered that a national disgrace, and they want it back."
In another section of the book he observed that, " The biggest crisis that can arise between the two (America and China), is over Taiwan. But I don't see America ever going to war with the Chinese to keep Taiwan independent. It doesn't pay. .........are the Americans prepared to pay the price that China is willing to pay over Taiwan? Remember that no Chinese leader can survive if Taiwan is lost under his watch.............it is not worth it for America. "
"Reunification between Taiwan and the Mainland is a matter of time. No country can prevent it."
Mr Lee Kuan Yew has a track record of being correct in his political and geopolitical assessments!
Singapore is ultimately more allied with the USA than with China. Singapore's port hosts the U.S Navy's operations in the South China Sea, and aircraft carriers such as USS _Ronald Reagan_ call on Singapore's port on their way to the South China Sea to stir up tensions with China.
@@Shenzhou. agree. "Singapore is ultimately more allied with the USA than with China"
@@Shenzhou. Singapore in surface looking to be allied with the west. Singapore must play their balance well because Singapore is a heavily financial hub and financial services are played majority by the west. Singapore government is actually a miniature of Chinese government. They are as conservatives as Chinese, not as liberal as they looked like. It's all masks. Chinese people in other places still Chinese. We are all pragmatists..
@@xueueux Singapore is the only South East Asian country to have *slapped sanctions* on Russia for their special military operation. Other ASEAN countries have not done so and there was no penalty to them by the West, yet Singapore's actions have earned it a place on Russia's list of _"unfriendly countries"._
@@Shenzhou. So what? How does that contradict Lee Kuan Yew with regard to Taiwan? Are you more of an expert than he was? Check that ego.
A few things need to be made clear. First, Taiwan and other islands were returned by Japan to China under international peace treaties. Taiwan didn't return to China due to some fog of war. This is important because Taiwan was returned to China under international law. [By the way, the US sneakily kept Okinawa and the Diaoyu or Senkaku islands for itself as trustee. Later, the US sneakily transferred Okinawa and Diaoyu to Japan.]
The Taiwan Relations Act and all the various US proclamations are US domestic laws, which the US has no bloody business to make over Taiwan, and which China need not obey. Americans think that their domestic laws are international law. That's why they see nothing wrong with passing domestic laws to sanction other countries, and to kidnap Huawei's CFO.
There is nothimg ambiguous about the one-China prniciple. The US sneakily calls it the one-China policy. That Taiwan is a part of China because it's US policy is utter rubbish. The US has no bloody business deciding for the Chinese whether Taiwan is or is not a part of China. In any case, the US, through Nixon, had already declared that Taiwan is a part of China, and the government at Beijing is the government of that one China.
US ambiguity over Taiwan is duplicitous, and is ambiguous only to Americans. The rest of the world see no ambiguity, and is against such rubbish ambiguity.
But Taiwan was take from Qing-Dynasty (China) by Japan by force. The Lost to WWII so they have to give back they taken form other!
Well said, Great Comment and Great Info!! 👏👏👍👍🙏🙏
Everyone might have a different opinion, but when you sign an agreement between two Countries and you are not holding on that agreement. Then, you are not trustworthy and breaking the contact. In this case the US..., so much for western democracy, they never keep their words.
Ask taiwanese people if they think that Taiwan belongs to China. Go ahead. The CCP will have to take the country by force because taiwanese people will not renounce their freedom.
@@HebertoLopez Ask any Loser Squatting illegally Sqautting in someone garage, They'll claim the own it.
Ask Anyone thief who steal stuff from Your house, they'll denied and claim it's their own.
China is more than capable to use any and all force necessary to Eliminate any War Loser Squaters trying to steal China's Island Taiwan. 🇨🇳🇨🇳💪💪
And China. And China wants PEACE. That is the real difference. Thank you Pascal for your video. The Media needs more of your Wisdom and Knowledge.❤️
Wisdom and Knowledge are in short supply among Western discourse regarding China.
@@Shenzhou. Yes, that is what I mean. We have a Regional Hospital Wanica in Lelydorp Suriname. We had no Hospital. Now we have. China Surinam project. We had bumpy sandroads in Lelydorp Suriname. Now we have Asphalt Roads. China Surinam project. Thank you China. And I myself am Energy independent. Thanks to China Solar Panels and Heatpump in Groningen Netherlands. I have better easier contact with China than with the Hague. It is like Chinese understand me better. If there is a problem we help you, Will. Allways answer. We have so much progress with China help. And now politics wanna stop this. I support China. China products and projects changed our live for the better. Thank you for your answer.
So why is china firing rockets over its "own country" if it wants peace?
@@swish6143 I ll be 70 next year. In my time we demonstrated USA Vietnam War. I had CNN Shock and Awe bombing of Bagdad USA Irak War. Afghanistan War. Now USA Ukraine War. China was always PEACE in my 70 years. Thank you China.
@@willeisinga2089 Well, apparently it won't be anymore. I don't get why you use US as an example. China will be the same as US. So China was just at peace since it didn't have any power for a war.
China is a civilization of many nations...hence the word civilization...with a cultural recognition of this reality...many languages one China...Taiwan needs to accept this reality and carry on as Taiwan in China...Nancy Pelosi didn't travel as a private citizen...she came with and on US military aircraft and US military escort...Can you imagine missile bases on Taiwan?...I can the mainland can too... unacceptable...China absolutely needs to assert it's hegemony over the Taiwanese part of itself Duh!
She came with military escort because China is playing war games for weeks now. She didn't want to be fired our of the sky. Missiles are literally flying over Taiwan, can you imagine that?
@@swish6143 no actually I can't, even if you can ...she could have used a commercial flight if she actually wished to travel as a private person...as is American taxpayers foot the bill...for a visit explicitly not private as she met with the political activist party and it's leaders in Taiwan, gave speech's of support for their suicide behavior... yada yada yada...she also used US military to go everywhere else she went...South Korean leaders ignored her visit....although she did wish to be treated as a powerful American to be kow towed too...she wasn't.
@@fellsmoke nobody owes Pelosi anything, not a American, not someone outside of America. She is a politician and was in Taiwan as a politician. But she can do whatever she wants as a politician, as long as it is legal. People can vote her out of office if they don't like her. But what excuse is that "she didn't fly commercial, let's start our fighter jets". Those fighter jets and bombs have been placed there looong before pelosi visited Taiwan. China just needed a good excuse to test them and they took whatever opportunity they could get. If the moon were red they would have taken that as an excuse.
@@swish6143 you are right in saying Nancy Pelosi is owed nothing...she is the one in debt to all who she represents ...homeless citizen of the district she represents recieves nothing from her ..they can't vote so who cares? No one...she Is nothing more than a corporate political whore owned by and doing the bidding of those few with the means to buy, own, and control the means to governance ...as Nancy says, if I wasn't the whore I am, someone else would be ..so it might as well be me Duh!
Who actually wanted a war?
Who benefit the most if there is a war in Taiwan?
Why not place a few missiles in Cuba and see what the American react?
Where is Cuba located??? Who cares about Cuba??? Taiwan makes 70% of high tech semiconductors on this planet.
@@pjeng1 Kennedy apparently cared
@@obj6989 JFK could've destroyed Castro if he wanted to and free the Cuban people. JFK cares about the safety of the US people and he abandoned the Cuban people.
@@pjeng1 yeah right
@@obj6989 JFK cares more about Marilyn Monroe than the Cuban people. No kidding !!!
One country two system is running very good in HK, especially after the National Security Law is implemented in Hong Kong. Of course, if you ask those people who do not consider themselves as Chinese, then they will say otherwise, in fact, many of them have emigrated to UK, which is good for them and for HK.
It takes a while for many people in Hong Kong to get used to authoritarian rule of China. But, time will heal everything and soon they will get numbed to obey orders from the top of Beijeng.
@@pjeng1 I can see the mass beatings and genocide, I doubt that
@@pjeng1 I was born in Hong Kong and grew up in the US while my mom moved back 10 years ago. Riots were led and funded by the US and Brits. They do this all over the planet. They are cancers to the peace of the world. The US deepshyt state sells many billions of weapons to Taiwan and is trying to create another Ukraine/Russia war to weaken China.
The National Security Law states you can't get funding from other countries to overthrow your OWN government, JUST LIKE the western countries. There is peace and NO difference in livability in Hong Kong since the brainwashed have left the country and the US and Brits have moved out since the law's enactment. The US sold its 350 million dollar compound that housed hundreds of its troublemakers....I mean diplomats and went home after the passage of the law.
My aunt said the cockroaches are chased away, it's good to have cleaner house..😅
The elections in Hong Kong were actually interfered by Beijing.
China should make is clear to the US that one China. If they’re willing to interfering bd teach them a lesson.
Bring it on! Rock and roll!
Why not doing it. Don't just say it.
To prevent Chinese fighting Chinese, China has to pass a law stating that the air space and water surrounding the province of Taiwan comes under the Chinese Central government. Another piece of legislation make person or organized group advocating independence to have committed an offence and warrant of arrest shall be issued to bring them to court. All these actions sound Democratic enough and the rest of the world must recognize it. This will also promote peace around the region.
China can pass any law she wants but is it legal?
If War in Taiwan... no chips for West... no replacement for their high end armaments...
Who will be losing
That would be a 5 year standstill for tech and climate transformation.
Who is losing - everyone.
Take Taiwan, and you have no semiconductor industry left. US will stop all technology equipments for the latest advancement in nanometer tech to Taiwan. US will just give South Korea and Japan these tech to create the next chip. lose for China.
One country two systems have been working perfectly well in Hongkong since 1997. But the U.S. organised political turmoils in Hongkong Government and social disorders in 2019.
You are talking purely from China's point of view.
@@pjeng1 nope, we have video of Steve Bannon directing the rioters. Want another? Shareholders of Apple Daily were all white Americans, Jimmy Lai was just the figurehead. Last one is a doozy, Joshua Wong went to Washington for a seminar held by NED in how to incite riot and public violence. Pictures of him and other riot leaders from Thailand and Myanmar are widely circulated
@@rastoferi6012 I like Steve Bannon a lot. Not sure who Jimmy Lai is.
@@pjeng1 stop talking about things you know little about
@@rastoferi6012 It doesn't cost me anything. Plus, it is my opinion and it is none of your business.
The West dont make the real difference. That was not so long time ago. Not Anymore. Indonesia Russia ASEAN make the real difference in Asia.
Good video.
War seems extremely unlikely. The only country, to put it crudely, "stupid" enough to provoke an inter-strait conflict would be the United States, but even then, US posturing towards the issue is very far from stoking conflict. Their presidents since the star of the century have had a pretty poor track record in foreign policy, yet no one is mad enough to cause the Taiwan issue to flare up into a full crisis. They have nothing to gain economically, ideologically, or geopolitically.
An invasion on the otherhand seems even more unlikely, since the costs will far outweigh any gain from a forceful reunification. Something I think more likely to be gained through military conflict would be the Treaty of Aigun territories, about 20 times the size of Taiwan, unlawfully stolen by Russia. That's also something I think would be interesting to have a video about, China's perspective on Outer Manchuria.
Giving a "dowry" to Taiwan seems to be the most likely, but not inevitable scenario of reunification. Like you said in your video, Taiwan and China's economic relations make the former more dependent. That's a fact that would play heavily on a reunification, because Taiwan faces many of the same problems China does, low births, unpalatable housing prices, wealth inequality, etc., but unlike China, they are already facing the stagnation of Japan and South Korea without a significant amount of finances and resources to back them up. An inability to solve domestic economic issues could be the inflection point that makes them turn towards China.
Just my thoughts about it. Status quo still looks to be the situation within the next few decades though.
This was exactly my thought until the war in Ukraine taught me that the West believes that the only way to stop an authoritarian regime is to cripple or destroy it while we still can.
Yes. Lets hope the status quo stays.
Interesting point of view. What sort of “dowry” are you looking at that would entice Taiwan to reunify with China?
@@Andy-P I hope not... the status quo is clearly a danger for the whole world. You favour the few at the risk of the many.
@@lijewy Who are the few and who are the many?
You forgot to mention the billions of dollars the US has spent in anti reunification with China, through NGOs and payments to key political Taiwanese poleticians to secure a foothold in the pacific to contain China militarily.
Taiwan is a land liberated by the US from Japan, not by China.
There will not be any war between China's Mainland Chinese against Taiwan's Mainland Chinese descendants as President Xi has emphasized numerous times, Chinese would not fight Chinese. But China's PLA would certainly fight Taiwan's Separatists and their meddling arrogant outside supporters, the US in particular. It is the will of 1.4B Mainland Chinese including Chinese worldwide to see the overdue China's Taiwan Island issue be resolved ASAP
Bring it on!
@@308_Negra_Arroyo_Lane FYI, it has started in earnest after the 20th CPC National Congress in November 2022
Do the Taiwanese have a sticker on there forehead to avoid a Chinese bullet once the war starts?
@@johnyan836 Just stick China's flag on the forehead like the fans
pro democracy fighter? you mean those gangsters set an old man on fire and let him burn alive. wow, that's rich.
In addition to an old man killed due to head injury
Xinjiang
@@Andy-P The riot in the US capital lasted only one day. Not only one was shot and killed by the police, many rioters are arrested and charged. Yet, the riots in HK last for years, not a single rioter killed by the police. The freedom convey in Ottawa lasted for a few days, the Canadian government call in the police to clear the blockade.
@@Andy-P No need for you to worry. Xinjiang is doing fine w/o CIA.
ruclips.net/video/Mt38BDUyU7s/видео.html
Is West. Media fabricating "Russian atrocities" as they've done with rivals in the past?
Just like the CIA did in HK.
Tell me why these rioters followed the command of this white dude. ruclips.net/video/rHj8kcCbHCE/видео.html
What are these white people doing?
CIA LEADING HONG KONG PROTESTS
ruclips.net/video/9DZsxXkmqVQ/видео.html
CIA BRIEFING PROTESTERS
ruclips.net/video/fEug7w6p1_E/видео.html
@@Andy-P No need for you to worry. Xinjiang is doing fine w/o CIA.
YT:v=Mt38BDUyU7s
Is West. Media fabricating "Russian atrocities" as they've done with rivals in the past?
Just like the CIA did in HK.
Tell me why these rioters followed the command of this white dude. YT:v=rHj8kcCbHCE
What are these white people doing?
CIA LEADING HONG KONG PROTESTS
YT:v=9DZsxXkmqVQ
CIA BRIEFING PROTESTERS
YT:v=fEug7w6p1_E
What seems to be "misleading" is that to infer Taiwanese are not Chinese but identify themselves as Taiwanese, as if they belong to a different country ! What about Hockien identify themselves Hokienese; People from Hongkong identify/ introduce themselves Hongkongners etc ... China is a country of such a vast land mass that ( approx 100 time bigger than any country in Europe), that resulting in how Chinese people usually introduce/ identify themselves to others. ( meaning the province, not country where they are coming from ...
I am from Hong Kong, I think in 2019 the CxA agency create a color revolution, keep brainwash people for independence ,creating HongKonger creating they are not Chinese concept, separate people into group of yellow color and group of blue, and create hate for the two sides, also earlier in 2005, One NGO probably funded by the CxA agency suggest Hong kong education system to remove the subject Chinese History, very immoral for them to brainwash people not to know their culture history!!!!
Thank you Pascal for another informative piece. The only question we all need to ask ourselves is a very simple one: Who is going to benefit from this war?
USA!
USA will benefit from this war, Taiwanese Will suffer most, so don't let this happen
Great video in discussing the different perspectives of the three parties. However, Mainland China is not worried about itself losing out against the US style democracy, which it sees as a corrupted and failing style of government. The major difference is the attitude of China as a 5000 yr old culturally strong unified country staying within its well-defined borders feeling threatened by colonists, imperialists, in different forms either Western democracies, or Japanese military expanists, US the hegemon or USSR which was rightfully blamed by China as a Revisionistic Socilist Imperialist country. So, selling the idea of standing by Taiwan democracy in a figth against autocracy is, in the eyes of the Mainland Chinese, just another form of new colonism or neo-nazi aggression. Western lies that China stole Tibet, invaded Vietnam an dother neighbouring countries are just lies.
Agreed. It's absurd that a 100-200 year old country like the United States thinks that they can persuade a 5000 year old civilization such as China to adopt their form of political system.
China is a civilization to be studied, not lectured at.
@@Shenzhou. "China is a civilization to be studies"..... yeah... from dynasty to dynasty (revolution of the people) How many dynasties ?
The historical burden of the Chinese is too heavy, which is not good for China.
Well well well... speaking of corruption. How many corrupt officials has Xi Jin Ping caught? And, how many he has not caught?
Another remarkable video with such good, unbiased info. You never miss.
🇹🇼 is never a country before nor later! 🇹🇼is part of China 1.5 billions (🇨🇳+🇹🇼+chinese oversea)
The rebellers nor traitors group cannot take 🇹🇼 away! as🇹🇼isn't belong to them alone.! (Remember, not all 🇹🇼 are traitors! They have family and relatives back in mainland 🇨🇳.!)
good man
Are the Singaporeans included in your "Chinese oversea"?
🙏 Thank you for your sharing 🙏
Thanks for listening
All the communique with China by the USA are official international recognized treaties. All the taiwan acts passed by the USA are internal laws and have no bearing on the international law and relations. Simply put, US law can not and will not affect any person or entities outside of the USA.
The Bully thinks it can sign pieces of paper and gets its own Congress to stamped the approval. That's basically internal. Any country can do these sort of manipulative tricks. The thing is, the UN do NOT recognise such internal pieces of resolution or papers. And as the might of the US starts to wane, no one gives a fig about its so called rules based international order, utter nonsense
然而 傲慢的美国认为美国的法律就是国际法
Excellent analysis.. 👍
台灣自從李登輝，進行教育改革後，將所有中國歷史逐漸變成外國歷史，台灣人是日本人是太平洋南島人，這種去中國化的教育，從1998年開始，所以現在接受這種民進黨再教育後的台灣年輕人，已經不再認為自己是中國人。但我朋友的父母，祖父母，皆認為自己是中國人。只要去參觀台灣的墓地，就會在墓碑上看到，大部分的人祖先都是從中國來的。不論西方如何說，台灣自西元三百年三國時代，就有中國人的足跡，那是將近1800 年的歷史，而美國的白人佔領美洲大地不過快三百年。台灣一定會回歸中國，請西方人不要阻止我們的回歸。請不要再製造戰爭了。各國應該都有自己的選擇自己的國家制度，中國的社會制度是適合中國的，只要看看中國這四十年無與倫比的進步，就不必多加解釋。好好管管你們自己的國家，多多改善你們的基礎建設，多多幫助窮人，阻止貪腐的政客上台，自己的國家自己救，別多管閒事。
Good points. But don't you need to clean your own house first, before trying to clean other people's house ?
現在就是要清掃門戶，把這些民進黨全清除出去。要獨立建國可以去找美國割一塊地。
After watching it, and I am a Europe citizen and live the last 5 year in HK and Shenzhen,, I can say I agree pretty much with all what is been explained,,. Especially in the last 10 min of the video,, and I do think that there are big opportunities for china regards maintaining world stability and peace,, (if china keep it's calm and wisdom and knowledge on long term care of achieving goals and objectives,, it should put Taiwan issue just on site for a while, I know it's theory and hard and just a suggestion, but show the world it would not bite to western polarisation and agression,, it can be a case of showing to the world and teach the world about Chinese Filisofy and ideas,, just don't bite to daily inforced bait , the bait to catch a war what is absolutely absurd and lutacris for all except a few who's mind is from a different planet and can be could evil and creepy,, but yes china please use it as opportunity to show the world we don't eat fishing baits 🙏
Taiwan had been under authoritarian single-party KMT rule for *more than half its life.* For decades the KMT ruled Taiwan with iron fist and Chiang kai-shek was a dictator who jailed and executed dissidents and political rivals (whether real or perceived) in a period known as _White Terror_ (白色恐怖) and imposed martial law on Taiwan for more than *38 years,* which was qualified as "the longest imposition of martial law by a regime anywhere in the world" at that time.
But under authoritarian single-party KMT rule, Taiwan actually flourished and prospered, in what's known as the _Taiwan Miracle_ (台湾奇迹). Between 1952 - 1982, Taiwan's economic growth was on average 8.7%, and between 1983 - 1986 at 6.9%. Taiwan GDP grew by 360% between 1965 - 1986. The percentage of global exports was over 2% in 1986, over other recently industrialized countries, and the global industrial production output grew a further 680% between 1965 - 1986. And its all been achieved under KMT leadership.
Only in the late 1990s, when democracy was introduced (because USA threatened to cut off weapons sales to Taiwan) did Taiwan's economic growth became more modest. Since then, Taiwan's economy has stagnated, wages are stagnant, cost of living is rising, unemployment is rising and Taiwan graduates are increasingly seeking jobs abroad, such as in Singapore or mainland China.
I was born in Taiwan in 1957 and left Taiwan in 1986 to pursuit higher education and then reside in the USA currently. I have never felt any brutal oppression of KMT as you mentioned because I was not pursuing political career and as a average citizen of Taiwan at that time life was quite nice and easy-going for me. The newly elected current democratic government of Taiwan seemed to have trouble promoting the economical growth and the economic stagnation and lower wages are the major problem for Taiwan currently. There is no free lunch in this world.
Some hegemonic western countries, especially those Anglo-Saxon countries - want the rest of the world to want what they want them to want to safeguard their narrow global interests..
By bullies or threats, however with the peaceful & significant rise of China for the past several decades, it sets the example of what it wants, in development, growth and prosperity!
Which most of the less & underdeveloped countries are emulating to develop, grow & prosper themselves.
You don't seem to like the western countries very much.
This is geopolitic and Taiwan have very little to say about at the end. For those who read about geopolitical imperial history know this or take lessons from the brilliant professor John Mearsheimer.
Russia can only become a empire if it control Ukraine. China can only become a empire if it control Tawain.
The world's biggest empire US will never let that happen.
Agreed.
Well the US was not going to allow the unification of Vietnam in the 1960s, so what happened? Rest is history as they say! Taiwan is as important to US security as Ukraine is and South Vietnam was. The simple answer is not much in all these cases! So why does the US want to risk a global war for the sake of Ukraine or Taiwan?
@@ahmedakhan1 South Korea is independant. Taiwan is an important friend and ally. But as you elude there is the thucydides trap.
USA is playing a losing hand according to Mackinder's Heartland Theory... Eurasia is the main card... and USA isn't in it... USA managed to keep the European peninsula weak... it played badly... so of course Russia and China might get stronger and rule over the Heartland and win the game... USA is key into its own demise.
@@Andy-P Believing the Thucydides trap is a trap in itself.
The sentimental shift towards independence/Taiwan identity also has to do with the changes made to the education system since the late 1990s - the syllabus was changed to remove China as the motherland of Taiwan people, basically... was fudged to make out like Taiwan was a combo of Dutch, Japanese & Chinese cultures. This is a big reason why the youth today are so disconnected from their Chinese heritage. Combine this with decades of Red Scare propaganda & you have some significant political resistance to reunification.
The problem here that many fail to realize is that identity politics has no bearing on sovereignty or territorial integrity.
agreed. ....." The problem here that many fail to realize is that identity politics has no bearing on sovereignty or territorial integrity."...
If you want to force your will on other people that is. Claiming taiwanese can't think for themselves is ridiculous. Borders move, they always have, territorial integrity is no law of nature. There is just earth. How people divide it up is up to them. If people want to live independent they can, why force them into something they don't want.
@@swish6143 good point. If some one forces you to have pork for dinner, but you don't want to eat pork or can't eat pork for some reason, can they force you to eat pork ?
@@swish6143 "If people want to live independent they can, why force them into something they don't want."
The land belongs to the Chinese. There are about 1.5 billion Chinese. Whatever the sentiment on the island of Taiwan is, it doesn't override the will of the entire nation. It belongs to them & stealing chunks of it isn't allowed. Not in Tibet, not in XInjiang, not in Taiwan, not in Shanghai, not in Dongbei, not nowhere. We're talking about legality. The same law applies in the US. Secession is illegal there too. In Australia it's legal but afaik it requires a nationwide referendum. Well... let's apply the nationwide referendum in China to see if the country wants to allow Taiwan independence. We both know the outcome. It's a non-starter. A 1C2S is the best way forward for everyone because the alternative is PLA comes & takes it & strings up these secessionist asshats.
@@danman6358 hold a referendum in taiwan. those 1.5 B Chinese don't care about the power plays about their leader, they didn't elect him, they care about their family. They just die in a war for him. Same as Americans in Irak, Americans just believed US propaganda lies initially, china is just better at their "if china wants something it gets something" propaganda. Chinese has no right to force their will on even one person. West ended slavery and ownership of humans decades ago, China will follow some time. Laws are invented as excuses for war. Taiwan didn't steal itself from china. Maybe Africa and India decides their will is to own china. Who knows.
If every professor or teachers presents this way there will be greater understanding and peace may come. Excellent!
It is the most ironic when US talking about peace
Good analysis...
Thanks!
@@PascalCoppens Good video
Since both PRC and ROC claim the entire territory of China (mainland and Taiwan and the 9-dash line) then there shouldn't be any issue about the PRC (or ROC) claiming that the sea between mainland China and Taiwan belongs to China. China is now strong enough to defend her territory. So the claim that it's international water is wrong, it belongs to China. The only issue with Taiwan is that they like the status quo - one China two systems and no independence. So it's only about the way its govern in Taiwan - it's not about the China Sea issue. If PRC guarantees the status quo for Taiwan then the Taiwan ADIZ is unnecessary. So the security of the sea between mainland China and Taiwan can be a joint exercise to reduce threats from external forces. It then doesn't matter when unification takes place, it will come naturally when no external forces interfere.
The people of Taiwan should look at how Macau (ex-Portuguese colony) returned to PRC and they have no problem. Unlike Hong Kong which had plenty of external interference until the national security law was passed to prevent sedition and anarchy. It's not unusual for democratic countries have national security law for the safety of their citizens.
Think about the country and not just yourself!
I very much appreciate your analytical and unbiased views and discussions. IMO there is no way that Taiwn cannot eventually be reunified with China. The beginnings of Taiwan was simply a facist faction from the mainland that lost to the CCP during its civil war and fled there. They are still considered to be of Chinese citizens with the same roots and origins. Taiwan is very reliant on China for its imports and exports. US military intervention will only speed up the reunification because US military aids leads to the possibility of a US base in Taiwan which is absolutely unacceptable as it poses a national threat to China. I think China has been rather relatively peaceful and patient with China as we know historically that negations and diplomacy are what the Chinese utilize first before they ever declare war. I think China sees the reunification of Taiwan as a long term goal. Secession and threat to secede by a province or state or region of a country is highly illegal in many other countries including in America. The same applies here with China and Taiwan.
I doubt that, even if the invade there will be nothing left of value after the war, Taiwan clearly does not want reunification and the CCP is not even the legitimate government of China.
You are right that Taiwan has the same roots and culture but the CCP destroyed much of that on the mainland.
The CCP simply cannot stand the fact that Taiwan did so much better then mainland china.
Bring it on then. War is waiting.
My two cents is that reunification can only happen in '1 country 2 systems' protocol. The issue is that if we do a parallel with Hong Kong (and Macao, as many tend to forget they also are under their '1 country 2 systems' too), the only two areas where the territories are not autonomous and where it is directly dealt by the mainland are foreign affairs (diplomacy) and the military. Considering the current situation with Taiwan not being recognized except by a handful of countries, the foreign affairs part would probably not be a big deal. But the military... For Hong Kong and Macao it was feasible to replace a foreign army by the PLA, for Taiwan I am afraid the question of disbanding or integrating Taiwan's military into PLA seems a tougher issue...
Not without a tough gun fight.
It will NEVER happen so long as China is a communist dictatorship.
One country two system was a JOKE in Hong Kong. Taiwanese do not believe CCP now.
Excellent video. Great narrative.
I think what's important is people should speak the truth instead of rhetorics. I'm not sure if you're deliberately creating controversy but here's what makes sense to me.
1) if the documets US signed are just rolls of toilet paper, why should other countries honor their promises?
2) the world is still a JUNGLE. And you still see naked imperialism of the US, Europe, happening in Africa today.
3) if the true belief of the west is "might makes right", what moral ground does it have against China?
4) please cut the "democracy" BS. The US is not a democracy, neither is Taiwan. If anything, the past year has proven you can fool the public into beliving anything, like Hunter Biden's laptop is a hoax, as long as you have powerful enough propaganda machine. And even afterwards it's proven a lie, you still can flush it out of the public memory with plenty of other lies.
5) China never promised "not to use force". The reason why it's careful is the implication in political and economical realms. As you see Peloci's visit is used as an execuse to conduct military drills and gain real grounds. That's a square deal, much fairer than what happend between the US and others. Because it's backed by military might, the only language US can understand.
Disregarding all of the wishful thinkings, the wheel of history has its own plan. And it will roll forward relentlessly. There is nothing "the west" can do. "The west" itself is an illusion as soon you might find out.
well said!
Good points sir agree
Very good analysis. China, Taiwan, US and western world leaders may need to see this video to learn from it.
Hello Pascal. You are absolutely right on that part about people (constituents) to expect their leaders to be more pro-democarcy (and so, more pro-taiwanese). They want their leaders to reflect their open-mindedness and their ideology. Wonderful observation.
It is BS. People like to start wars on their perceived enemies that they don’t have to fight - they will fight China down to the last Taiwanese
Most pro-democracy citizens are being brainwashed. Please give evidence that democracy do exist more than merely a political procedural process? You have to demonstrate kratos or the ruling power is within the people.
WEST+USA is winding down their operation in Ukraine and moving to Taiwan.
But the US will fail in Taiwan too. Once China blockade Taiwan, not even a single ant could get through, let alone those weapons that the US promised to send to Taiwan. The US should see the writing on the wall. Its hegemony is coming to an end. Multipolar world is the new game in town
@@iwanagohome326 Modern warfare dictates you do not engage a war at your own backyard.
Just take a look at Afghanistan. Does Afghans truly consider it a victory knowing full well they were left devastated?
USA does not need to win in a modern war. They need to just bomb the battlefield which is Taiwan, turn it into a land of million craters then leave! Tsai does not care. She is of Japanese descent. She will turn Taiwan into a Japanese colony once again or have it destroyed.
Beautifully Said ...
It's nothing about democracy against autocracy but all about maintaining Western hegemonic imperialism and suppressing the development of China !
It's the other way around. No one has anything against china's development, that's awesome and celebrated everywhere, it's just that they don't want an autocratic mini Hitler back.
Democracy is the value of the western world, but the China mainlanders do not understand.
Great works 👍👍👍
The status quo might be used to escalate to war. We need something better to insure worldwide peace. It's not just about Taiwan. It's about the world.
What is wrong with the Status Quo? Has not China benefited from the world peace in the past 40 years?
@@johnyan836 As I said, it can be exploited to escalate to war. Your rhetoric is similar to: "Oh, I drink alcohol and having fun. Why ban alcohol when only minority drink and drive?" China benefiting from status quo doesn't make the status quo any less dangerous.
@@lijewy
I agree with you.
This video was dated before Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen lost her election and party chair. The people in Taiwan disagreed with her getting too close to the US propaganda, namely the Pelosi-style visit. In the survey, I read Taiwanese want the status quo to stay the same. I think China wants the same too. As long as Taiwan is not independent. Taiwan, China, and the US can pretend everything is normal. The US State Department website says, "we do not support Taiwan's independence." In the US, America feels like losing to China in economic competition, and there are no short or long-term fixes. American have been proud of themselves for a century that the democratic system is vital to prosperity and all human advance. That justifies American exceptionalism and her powerful arm forces all over the world. This propaganda starts not holding water in the face of China's economic rise. Often used with the Chinese is the phrase "Saving face," but this time, it applies to the American, similar to what we employ in the West - "ego."
So anything the US can do to slow down China's growth is a plus for America. Hong Kong and Taiwan were the tools to throw roadblocks to Chinese progress. China responded the provocation was natural and for their people. At a minimum, this forced the Chinese to "waste" money to build arm forces as America did. Wasting money in arm forces is an American addiction. In return, the US military complex gets more funding from the US congress, and even NASA can benefit more space budget. For the most part, money is evil here. It's never about democracy. It's about control and self-interest to maintain power, and the money comes later.
As we know, Chinese is practical; plan for the long term. The book Art of War taught them at least that much; waiting for the right situation is wise. Beijing pays lip service to the conflict and traps Americans in building more arm forces than critical infrastructure like semiconduction manufacturing, green technology, AI, etc. China's advantage is economic; the quality of their workers and citizens don't doubt their government and let the rulers make the big decisions. 1.4 billion highly energic people want to be rich with hard work. China will win if she stays on course. America's traditional win is by controlling others thru democracy and election, electron by default, two parties go against each other. American money can fund one party favorite to the US (puppet). You can see it in Hong Kong and Taiwan elections. It is the old British colony tactic (split the people up in a colony). The history of India has plenty of examples. The old imperialism policy was re-branded.
The local elections do not reflect the problem with China. We should judge it by the outcome of the next presidential election.
Thanks, always very informative and always wise!
The Western new normal of identifying the Chinese as the main threat, which we see touted with irresponsible lightness as if it were to differentiate those who love or hate golden retrievers, is perhaps a distraction of people's interest from a number of real social and economical problems, which ours Western political classes seem unable to resolve themselves.
Does anyone really believe that we are exporting democracy?
Before Pelosi's visit, if I'm not mistaken, China was carrying out its project, certainly not without problems, of peaceful reunification that would take place in more than two decades.
A project that exists on the basis of agreements with the USA that they disregard or rather alter, I would call it playing dirty, as the video informs us.
Now we find ourselves having to rebuild, if we ever succeed, the trust with China to avert a catastrophic war, and you hardly gets that with propagated animosity, unrespect of sovranity and pacts.
Too bad that the Europe to which I belong, I am Italian like Marco Polo, does not seem to have an autonomous voice capable of bringing mediation, and never as now a third party of some weight could be important, and at the same time protecting its interests. China, besides hating golden retrievers, is our biggest trading partner!
Make it clear Tsai help not the people in Hong Kong but those criminals in HK.
Wonder why china is gung-ho about reunification..at this point of time..after china and Taiwan have existed as separate entities for such a long time..China's actions in HK and its recent events including how it handles covid..would have sent shivers down the spines of the Taiwanese ...If people there thought about peaceful reunification, that idea would now have flown out of the window.now .Taiwan by itself is doing great..and as a good relative..China should not feel jealous ..and try to break the plate they are eating from...If all the leaders since Mao could tolerate a ,"free society" in Taiwan , why couldn't Xi..???...who is threatening to wage war on them..Not a good relative..in my view
If I were an Indian, I would not meddle in matters that are not in my jurisdiction. "What goes round comes around". ASEAN will note how India has a Western mindset of meddling in other people's internal affairs, and ought to worry India's interference in ASEAN countries.
ps. Better to handle fairly with your neighboring country, Kashmir, Bhutan, and even Sikkim which India covertly annexed by installing a pro-India politician as Sikkim's leader in the 1970s.
If taiwans zone includes fujian and Zhejiang, does Chinas zone include Taiwan?
DPP actually ruled from 2000-2008 too. During both periods when they ruled (2000-2008 and 2016-now), you see a surge in Taiwanese people wanting independence. 5.5% increase during 2000-2008 and 13% during 2018-2020. It'd gone down a little bit in the past few years, likely because of the way the government handled the pandemic and botched foreign relations.
Pascal, just one suggestion. Your background is a high-contrast image which really kills my eyes. I think it would be much better if you put a light, low-contrast image so that it may feel more natural and pleasant watching you. Thanks.
Thanks for that suggestion!
Since this was posted 9 months ago I'm VERY curious as to how u feel about this subject today.
The best scenario for China is to drag US down for any potential millitary conflict. A direct conflict(if that could possiblly happen) with US will solve everything.
So you want to send Chinese to die?
Go ahead!
when China send rockets into space ... some of my Taiwanese friends actually clapped hands 👏... they would like as much as possible to maintain the status quo ...but many felt re-unification is inevitable some time in the future ... as the 3,000+ year Chinese civilisation can wait ... hence many got their green cards just in case🙄
Time is not in ROC ways. It would be wise for them to start negotiating with PRC for term of reunification rather than keeps status quo longer, as once PRC navi strong enough to prevent USA navi join the war, there will be no term left for ROC to negotiate
Some factual statistics and the complete One China Policy 1979 and complete Taiwan Relations Act 1979 pasted below:
Nearly 90% of people in Taiwan identify themselves as Taiwanese.
4.6% of people in Taiwan consider themselves as Chinese.
27% of people said they are both Taiwanese and Chinese.
50% of Taiwanese would like to maintain the status quo regarding the One China Policy.
39% would like Taiwan to become independent (which they already are).
84% of Taiwanese think positively of Japan
75.6% of Taiwanese think positively of the US
70.3% OF TAIWANESE THINK NEGATIVELY OF CHINA.
More than 82 percent said they regretted that the country took part in the Tokyo Olympics under the name “Chinese Taipei,” and that the national flag and anthem could not be displayed during the Games The people have spoken.
12% of Taiwanese voted for the KMT in the last election
One China Policy 1979 direct paste:
Notes to mention: No restrictions of international diplomatic visits to Taiwan & it does not state that the US agrees that Taiwan is part of China.
One China Policy 1979
December 16, 1978 The People's Republic of China and the United States of America have agreed to recognize each other and to establish diplomatic relations as of January 1, 1979. The United States of America recognizes the Government of the People's Republic of China as the sole legal Government of China. Within this context, the people of the United States will maintain cultural, commercial, and other unofficial relations with the people of Taiwan. The People's Republic of China and the United States of America reaffirm the principles agreed on by the two sides in the Shanghai Communique and emphasize once again that:
--Both wish to reduce the danger of international military conflict.
--Neither should seek hegemony in the Asia-Pacific region or in any other region of the world and each is opposed to efforts by any other country or group of countries to establish such hegemony.
-- Neither is prepared to negotiate on behalf of any third party or to enter into agreements or understandings with the other directed at other states. --The Government of the United States of America acknowledges the Chinese position that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China.
--Both believe that normalization of Sino-American relations is not only in the interest of the Chinese and American peoples but also contributes to the cause of peace in Asia and the world. The People's Republic of China and the United States of America will exchange Ambassadors and establish Embassies on March 1, 1979 .
Taiwan Relations Act 1979 (Much more detailed)
Notes to mention: Authorizes the President or any department and agency to conduct and carry out programs in Taiwan. States that peace in the region including the Pacific is an international concern. TRA is clearer and more detailed.
Taiwan Relations Act - Declares it to be the policy of the United States to preserve and promote extensive, close, and friendly commercial, cultural, and other relations between the people of the United States and the people on Taiwan, as well as the people on the China mainland and all other people of the Western Pacific area. Declares that peace and stability in the area are in the political, security, and economic interests of the United States, and are matters of international concern. States that the United States decision to establish diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China rests upon the expectation that the future of Taiwan will be determined by peaceful means and that any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means, including by boycotts or embargoes is considered a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area and of grave concern to the United States. States that the United States shall provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character and shall maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or social or economic system, of the people of Taiwan.
Reaffirms as a commitment of the United States the preservation of human rights of the people of Taiwan.
Declares that in furtherance of the principle of maintaining peace and stability in the Western Pacific area, the United States shall make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capacity as determined by the President and the Congress.Requires such determination of Taiwan's defense needs to be reviewed by United States military authorities in connection with recommendations to the President and the Congress.
Directs the President to inform the Congress promptly of threats to the security or the social or economic system of the people on Taiwan, and any danger to the United States interests arising from such threats. Specifies that the President and the Congress shall determine the appropriate action in response to any such danger.
Stipulates that the absence of diplomatic relations with or recognition of Taiwan shall not affect U.S. laws relating to Taiwan. Authorizes the President or any department and agency to conduct and carry out programs, transactions, and other relations with respect to the people on Taiwan, including, but not limited to, the performance of services for the United States through contracts with commercial entities in Taiwan, in accordance with applicable laws of the United States.
Stipulates that withdrawal of diplomatic recognition of the Government on Taiwan shall not affect, including actions in all United States courts, the ownership of, or other rights or interests in, real property or other things of value, nor the contractual obligations and debts of the people on Taiwan. Stipulates that whenever the application or a rule of law of the United States depends upon the law applied on Taiwan or compliance with such law, the law applied by the people on Taiwan shall be considered the applicable law for that purpose.
Prohibits any United States agency, commission, or department from denying an export license application or revoking an existing export license for nuclear exports to the people on Taiwan based on the lack of diplomatic recognition by the United States of the Government of Taiwan.
Permits Taiwan to be treated in the manner specified in the selection system for a separate immigration quota for purposes of the Immigration and Nationality Act.
Allows Taiwan to sue and be sued in courts in the United States, in accordance with United States laws.
Stipulates that all treaties and international agreements which were in force between the United States and Taiwan, known as the Republic of China, on December 31, 1978, and that multilateral conventions to which the United States and Taiwan are contracting parties shall continue in force between the United States and Taiwan unless terminated in accordance with law.
Provides for the continued membership of the people on Taiwan in any international financial institution or any other international organization.
Allows the Overseas Private Investment Corporation to provide insurance, reinsurance, loans, or guaranties for projects on Taiwan during the three year period beginning on the date of enactment of this Act, unrestricted by the $1,000 per capita income restriction of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961.
SEE MY REPLY FOR THE REST OF THE ACT (too long)
Provides for relations between the United States and Taiwan to be conducted by or through the American Institute in Taiwan (or such comparable successor nongovernmental entity as the President may designate) and an instrumentality established by the people of Taiwan.
Sets forth the duties the Institute may authorize any of its employees in Taiwan to perform, including, but not limited to, administration or taking from any person an oath, affirmation, affidavit, or deposition and any other acts such as are authorized to be performed for consular purposes which assist or protect the persons and property of citizens or entities of United States nationality.
Stipulates that the Institute shall be treated as a tax-exempt organization. Authorizes U.S. departments and agencies to furnish and accept service to and from the Institute.
Authorizes the President to extend to the instrumentality established by the people on Taiwan the same number of offices and complement of personnel as previously operated in the United States by the government recognized as the Republic of China prior to January 1, 1979.
Authorizes the President to extend to the instrumentality established by the people on Taiwan privileges and immunities comparable to those provided to missions of foreign countries, upon the condition that similar privileges and immunities are extended on a reciprocal basis to the Institute.
Authorizes U.S. departments and agencies to allow Federal officers and employees to separate from Federal service and accept employment with the Institute. Provides for the reinstatement of such employees with their former department or agency with no loss of rights and benefits. Stipulates that alien employees of U.S. departments and agencies be transferred to the Institute. Stipulates that employees of the Institute shall not be Federal employees. Exempts certain amounts received by employees of the Institute from taxation.
Requires the Secretary of State to transmit to the Congress the text of any agreement to which the Institute is a part (or to the appropriate committees of the Senate and House of Representatives if such disclosure would be prejudicial to the national security of the United States).
Directs the Secretary to report to the Congress every six months on the economic relations between the United States and the people on Taiwan.
Requires that the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the House of Representatives and the Committee on Foreign Relations of the Senate monitor the implementation of the provisions of this Act; the operation and procedures of the Institute; the legal and technical aspects of the continuing relationship between the United States and Taiwan; and the implementation of the policies of the United States concerning security and cooperation in East Asia.
Authorizes the appropriation of funds necessary to carry out the provisions of this Act. Makes this Act effective as of January 1, 1979.
@lati long Its a direct copy of the TRA as there is no disputing documented facts.
So let's get together some solutions ,, kind regards Rob 🙏💪
The China-US Joint Communique in 1979 clearly told what had the US gov made wrong on TW card.
Can you explain why?
In a poll of nearly 7500 readers by the _United Daily News_ (Taiwan Newspaper) website, *61 percent* said Pelosi's trip was not welcome as it may destabilise the Taiwan Strait. Only *38 percent* welcomed the visit and said it had more advantages than disadvantages.
There is nothing wrong for Nancy Pelosi to visit Taiwan on paper. But her timing is wrong, terribly wrong.
Pelosi's visit to Taiwan was a total success for herself and a total disaster for Taiwan. Time will tell.
Taiwan's current situation is a reminder of China's hundreds years humiliation in the colonial period. It is a shame, a scar that will always make Chinese souls bleeding. Americans should understand this and do not be the last representative of the old evil colonizers.
The only evil that is scarring China is the CCP. Democracy for China!
So is the 200 million square Km of land China lost to Russia.
War or No. Ask United States.
This question is for Pascal. Thank you for your great insights. Question for you though, (hoping for your insight) : Would we be in this predicament if the US were an Autocratic Dictatorial system ? (not meant as a provocation). Understandably your livelihood depends on your subscribers, but can't you be a little more balanced in your analysis ?
Only a few words that could stop a nasty war
Pascal you have done a remarkable job explaining the situation in Taiwan. However, you've never respected what the Taiwanese WANT. That is VERY important, isn't it?
Taiwan used to be one of _Four Asian Tigers_ but ever since liberal democracy was introduced to Taiwan, it's economy is in slump, wages are stagnant, cost of living is rising and Taiwan graduates are leaving for jobs in the mainland or Singapore
_"From the '90s, Taiwan became a two-party system with more partisan disagreements on policy matters. This produced less effective policy making. Secondly, the ruling officials tend to be more conservative in Taiwan, so they do not enthusiastically push for policies to globalise and liberalise the island."_ - Ray Chou, Research Fellow, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica
...
Video: _How Taiwan Lost Its Roar And Its Young Talents | Insight | CNA Insider_ ruclips.net/video/P3BCnPb8qHY/видео.html
Your whole film has been stressing how much the Chinese want to be unified.
But ignore how much Taiwanese do not want to reunify.
It's like forcing your country to unify with the Soviet Union.
This is a totally unreasonable feeling for Taiwanese what do you think！？
Rather than this ending, the Taiwanese would rather be a war.
good point. it's like forcing your wife or husband or any one else to have pork for dinner, but they don't want to have pork for dinner.
because it is 1.4b vs 2.3m. do the maths, that is why. and in geopolitical game between super powers, little ones like TW is irrelevant. it is never about what TW wants. be real!
@@a1142730 haha, in fact, he doesn't know all about it.
China is a country but with a lot of weaknesses.
The U.S. keeps Taiwan alive, not entirely because of weapons.
@@jinpxi4078 I watched his other video and it turns out this guy lived in China for a long time.
No wonder his stance is so biased.
@@a1142730 actually it's just Xi against 2.3 m. No one elected Xi, Xi rules over his people. But those 2.3 m, they elected their leader.
very intelligent speaker
Of course the US want China start a war with Taiwan, so the Asia economy will face earthquake, most of the foreign investment capital cannot escape to Europe due to Russia and Ukraine conflicts, the only place they can go it is the US, the US will become the biggest winner of the China-Taiwan war, if China use force to take back Taiwan, the US can be more focus in middle east conflict, it will be harder for Russia+Iran+Turkey kick the US off middle East, Taiwan isn't the US core value, even if they lose control of it is not as bad as they lose the control of middle east, that their core values, no middle east, no USD hegemony.
The president of the United States do not dictate the travel arrangements of the speaker of the house, these are independent arms of the US government. It doesn't matter if she goes or not, China wins both ways. China can claim that they have the power to dictate who in US government can travel or they caan put into action the military drills which have been planned for years (This wasn't done in a matter of hours) around Taiwan.
You're absolutely correct. The planned invasion of ROC Taiwan wasn't done in a matter of hours.
The world could only enjoy peace if America minded its own business.
You can’t enjoy any peace if USA mind its business… you be destroyed by animals.
How can u not mention the US "first island chain" strategy to contain China? Taiwan is part of the first island chain. This is a national security issue for China and the Americans know that, imperial Japan also knew that, they called Taiwan the unsinkable aircraft carrier. It is as simple as that.
All the "perspectives" are just diplomatic speak for the US threat to China's national security
(not speaking for the US or EU) but what part of the one ChIna policy needs explanation ? the "peaceful means" or "regional stability" part ?
Next France wants part of Syria..oh wait, we have been playing this game a couple of centuries ago. China is late to the party. Powerful people forcing their will on others never ends well.
Enjoy your report. You know pretty well about Chinese history. I enjoy an unbiased analysis on the subject of China. Tell the true history, not manufactured and distorted history.
The US don't want to loose influence in Chip industry. They need control on Taiwan, or US fear they will be cut out of the future of tech
It is clear. The only agreement bet US and China is the 3 Shanghai Communique. Taiwan Relations Act and 6 assurances are only a unilateral agreement internally made within the US. Hence, it is not binding on China. So it is clear that Taiwan is part of China...no ambiguity.
check out the latest update on "...Taiwan is a part of China...."
Don't forget in Shanghai Communique China promised to use peaceful means to solve the Strait problems. Has China keep the promise?
@@johnyan836 did the Shanghai Communique made such promise? Show me
@@longcimb
3rd page:
It (the US) reaffirms its interest in a peaceful settlement of the Taiwan question by the Chinese themselves.
LATEST UPDATE FROM THE UN:
The UN's High Commissioner Michelle Bachelet who visited Xinjiang in May has dropped a bombshell on the CCP. Report pasted below:
"The report, released just minutes before the end of High Commissioner Michelle Bachelet's term, said the "extent of arbitrary and discriminatory detention of members of Uyghur and other predominately Muslim groups... may constitute international crimes, in particular crimes against humanity."
The report's "overall assessment" finds that "serious human rights violations have been committed" in the Xinjiang region, within the context of the Chinese government's "application of counter-terrorism and counter-'extremism' strategies."
The report also said "allegations of patterns of torture or ill-treatment, including forced medical treatment and adverse conditions of detention, are credible."
China, which had opposed the report being released,"
This will become a big topic next weeks indeed
US wants to own piece of tTsiwan semiconductor. That is the very important for US . That is why US wants Taiwan semiconductor manufacturing is building their plant in Arizona, USA.
As a Taiwanese, I would like to appeal to the world for help in maintaining Taiwan's democracy and freedom, as Taiwan does not belong to China.
Taiwanese people have worked hard to fight for democracy and freedom from the Kuomintang (KMT) party of China. Taiwan hopes to continue enjoying the current free, democratic, and prosperous way of life, and to provide assistance to the world in areas such as medical and technological advancements.
Taiwanese people do not want to be ruled by any foreign authoritarian regime again, and we urge the world not to believe in China's propaganda. Restricting Taiwan's normal participation in the international community is unfair.
But what makes laws made in the USA relevant to internal affairs of China?
Search out this Professor Qiu Yi 邱毅 of 分享 channel to keep up with latest China-Taiwan situation.
It is not the expectation but interference that will create a war.
No war! US provoking on east to war
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