3 Most Bought European Stocks: ASML, BAYER, VOLKSWAGEN
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- Опубликовано: 16 май 2024
- Are these value or value traps: ASML stock, BAYER Stock, VolksWagen stock.
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0:00 Europe Stock Market
2:20 ASML
8:07 Bayer
15:14 VW
Thanks for covering 🙏. Much appreciated 🙏
I'm an engineer in the semiconductor industry and ASML as a company (not stock at these levels, big difference!!) feels like considerable less risk than Nvidia.
In my opinion, ASML has full order books that will ensure sales for many years. Seen this way, ASML does not benefit from the AI boom, but from deglobalization
love it, thanks sven
I sold Bayer a few days after they announced to buy Monsanto.
you should have beeen made ceo
Well done
I bought Monsanto strictly for the merger arbitrage opportunity, and made a nice profit. I remember laughing at how bad of a merger it was.
Bought heavy ASML at 29x. Couldn't catch me buying more today at these valuations -- although you can never have enough of one of the best companies in the world.
I fully agree with your final conclusions. To be honest, I was really hoping you would conclude with all 3 has risky.
Although, from these companies, ASML is worthy to be in the watch list. We just have to wait for the stock to come down to a reasonable buy range. The remaining two have some serious issues with their financials. I wouldn't come near them. Although, living in Germany, it is sad to see two of our big boys having financial troubles.
I’ve been caught in the Alibaba trap for 3 years now😅
Massive respect to you for not selling. You're a chad
Keep it up. I believe BABA is going to be a good investment in the 5-10 year range.
Patience is key, if they start growing their dividends by 30-50% annually, people will line up to buy! I am still picking up a few shares of BABA every now and again
rich4516
Its not looking like an easy turn around for the Chineese economy. Residential property prices are falling and consumers are cutting spend on luxury goods. It appears the situation is getting worse not better.
I feel you maybe in for a long wait before capital is wiiling to invest the value that Alibaba offers
@@andypicken7848 But it’s all good and well over here right? People can’t afford food, homelessness at an all time high but we are good right? Don’t let the propaganda stop you from seeing what’s going on.
Fundamentals of BABA have improved from when it traded at almost $400. I don’t care how long I have to wait, I’ll collect and reinvest those dividends while I wait.
Enjoyed every minute of the vid, thanks
Bayer and Roche are very connected. In some respects, one cannot live without the other. They are fantastic companies and essential companies as well. Your analysis is very good, Sven. So many companies are cyclical and very much dependent on the business cycle.
Thanks for sharing
Would Love if you would make a Video about ATX Stocks: BAWAG, Do&Co and SBO. They Look good and especially BAWAG could be a potential Unicredit 2.0 and go up by 100-200% really quick!
i remember your last video on ASML. And it was pretty much the same conclusion. It was quite high then due to the covid chip shortage. At the time i saw the potential in the wide moat and with all chip companies expanding there will be need for ASML for years to come. I liked that the company does not dilute shares, Balance sheet/cashflow looked good too. I bought it at 560 and im happy i did. Now its the same story again. AI will drive chip demand so not much risk there, but i see more risk in the fact that we are approaching the limits of what is possible with the technology. At some point Quantum computing will have to enter the market if we are to increase computing power. Now im less eager to buy more but im gonna hold on to the shares i have. But nevertheless the company looks still very good to me. Maybe the price is indeed too steap.
This video was a fresh look at 3 stocks
Love your content, Sven!
One of the curious EU stocks you had previously covered is Rubis and it went up 30+% in the past weeks. It is interesting to see your view on the drivers of such a sudden change
some investors took a bigger stake
Have you looked a unilever? Was surprised to see positive sentiment from Terry Smith about it at his yearly meeting
What do you think of SVOL etf?
Can you give us an overview of: Naura technology group they seem to be doing the same thing only in China?
Sven ripping Bayer's doublespeak to shreds 👌😂
Right time to invest for some big tech names is now. There is too much momentum and the ASML price will keep going up. I think if you buy now, the earnings will catch-up eventually and then compared to your today's purchase price, the p/e will look reasonable. It's the same story with some good companies in India. Their P/E ratios were crazy 7 years ago and is still today. But many stocks have give excellent Return on capital
Excellent analysis of Bayer and ASML. 😊
Great analysis!
Sven, smart and thoughtful as always...one of the best! Thanks mate...
🗽 Bayer and VW I would avoid! These ar typical value-traps.
.
VW: lamborghini could be worth around 20B, Porsche stake another 50B = already more than the entire market cap.
Net Cash + Audi + Bentley, VW + all other Brands for free. Isnt this the way we should look at this Company as an "Value" Investor?
they dont have a net cash, the actually have a lot of debt
@@opperturk124 most of their debt is from financial services and the money they have borrowed to give out car loans. you need to subtract the financial services receivables from the debt
@@opperturk124 That debt is in the financial part of the business, and represents the leasings. They have the colateral of the cars + caims on the income of the debtors. The car company VW has positive net cash.
@@joaosobraldossantos o i didnt know that
Sven, the sane voice
:-)
I agree with the assessment. On top of that, VW is sitting on a huge pile of debt and as a German living near their HQ I really hope they make it through the next 10 years
The debt is linked with the financial part of the business, the leasings on the cars. The car company VW has positive net cash.
I assume ASML is slightly overpriced at over 900 Euros but I won't sell. It could be the most important business now and for the near future.
Sven, could you please help us in understand the actual strategy of Buffett by selling Apple and adding more and more OXY and specially LSXMA/LSXMK. Tkx
Buffett selling is more of a rounding error, so nothing material there. And he isn't buying much
@@Value-Investing In terms of these 2 tickers. LSXMA and LSXMK do you see value in this company?
Does it make sense to call something the most bought, wouldnt that also make it the most sold ? Or am i missing something ?
Sven, my question is : I took asml a bit ago and I'm up 68% now , with that 3% of my portfolio. What would you recommend someone in this position do now woth it??? Thanks!
It depens on you and why you bought it
Sven You are 105% right. All this high, top paid managers always move to „utilize new opportunities” after they mess up 😂😂😂
Sven, good evening, what do you think about Starbucks stock? They have been getting a public relations beating right now, but when the market corrects, do you think there might be a good deal? They are already down, so when. bubble pops, they might be a good deal and war and peace in the Middle East is very cyclical as long as it doesn't spread.
Good suggestion!
How does Sven feel about buying European stocks from countries that have extra withholding taxes from dividends? Germany, France, Switzerland, Belgium, Denmark etc? I have always skipped them directly, too large handicap for the owner at needing to do large work to get what is by contract yours and uncertainty on even ever getting them.
If the company is growing the dividend significantly, it doesnt matter the witholding tax because you still get the growth on the initial yield on cost, even if its taxed. The tax rate is constant (unless the government rises it) but your dividend growth rate is changing every year (if its a good dividend grower), so in my opnion taxes matter for your dividend if the company is not growing the dividend at all. I live in BE and I still have dividends but only from companies that are growing them by 15 to 20% annually.
Dear Sven, I've been following you for a long time. I often hear you say that the company you are considering is not worth it at the moment, for several reasons that I agree with. Can you please make us some videos about companies that you value positively?
Thank you for your work
This is a very important question! Will make a video to answer this!
If you can get ASML on a PE of 30 which is usually historically on the lowest side based on their growth and market position, you are getting yourself a hell of a business. If it deeps on the 600's, even the high 600's its a huge BUY in my opinion.
ASML is probably more of an onshoring chip mfg play than an AI play. Of the three choices, I'd probably pick ASML if I had to pick one of them.
Have you changed your mind when it comes to Stellantis STLA. Looks way better than VW.
Volkswagen's pe is very depressed for automotive as well. It grows constantly but has a lot of debt and high challenges with electric conversion and other competitors. And Germany is in bad times now. For me could be a good entry, very undervalued and has a big (but very taxed) dividend. I think Volkswagen is a good bet.
Asml is a very strong stock, one of the best in Europe, but is very overvalued and highly capitalizated. Now could be a very dangerous entry
Always liked the idea of being the factory that makes the machines that the chipmakers buy to make the chips…I can afford an ETF that holds ASML..
Thank you, Sven. I enjoy your in-depth analysis every time. We appreciate the work you do here.
I bought 37 shares of Bayer at 26€ a few days ago hoping that most of the downsides has been priced in already, and perhaps litigaiton has turned a corner ("Judge slashes Bayer $1.56 billion Roundup verdict to $611 million" - Reuters, 5/4/2024). In any case, this is a long-term bet to incentivise my ongoing interest in the future of my ex-company: godspeed for all who sail in her now and beyond 2026.
Great video! Thanks Sven. ASML has a global monopoly but neither US or EU regulators are targeting it. Instead the go after Apples and Alphabets. Think about that... If you had a quadrillion $ in your pocket, which 6 companies would you buy now and stick with for your lifetime? This is a Buffett type of question. Would ASLM be one of them? Perhaps.
Its is tech, thus no!
Plus, who is playing with billions here, only Buffert snd he is not buying anything
@@Value-Investing I was implying Buffett's 20-slot punch card analogy combining with his another idea of investing mainly in businesses he would like to fully own.
💯
Value investing doesn’t work in a bull market. I plan to hold asml. I did last time when it hit 800 and it crashed but I have long term bias on this stock with a wide moat!
This sounds like an occasion to wait for the ship to turn around, before boarding.
You'll miss it
@@bananenbrot958Maybe, maybe not. If it only turns around a little then I'll miss it. If it actually turns around and makes a significant move.
Meanwhile, if I go in now, that means I'm NOT putting my money into something that is already sailing in the right direction.
William O'Neil has a thing or two to say about stocks that are in downtrends.
To clarify, I was talking about Bayer and VW, not ASML.
Great analysis Sven! I love when you unmask poor managements! 🛂Equinor is my value investment in Europe, but i know you don't like Oil Companies before recessions so i won't ask you to deep dive in that! ⛽
ASML seems simple. Totally dominated industry by them and the future will simply demand more chips.
“It’s not supposed to be easy. Anyone who finds it easy is stupid.”-Charlie Munger. How long can ASML maintain its position (exceptional value creation)? Can it grow revenue (more projects, customers)? Can it improve earnings (better margins)? etc. ASML's nonexistent margin of safety in price must be outweighed by considerable business greatness (qualitative factors). As a value investor, insist for a sufficient margin of safety in the aggregate qualitative and quantitative sides of your analysis as well as your personal experience and circle of competence (skill). The margin protects not only against yourself (lack of skill, experience, folly) but also the markets (bad luck, timing).
It all depends on the price
@@Value-Investing eh for me just seems like a stock to continually buy forever.
RE: ASML - U.S. sanctions against China could have a major impact on its business. Chinese fabs accounted for 26.3% of ASML's revenue in 2023, and China was the second largest buyer of ASML's tools on country/region basis, just after Taiwan (which accounted for 29.3%).
I just keep collecting 10k per month making my own dividends instead of waiting a year for a micro dividend. Keep collecting my rent on the majors like amazon, googl, Apple etc. Investors are dumb enough to pay 3 to 5% for a 5 week option that expires worthless. I am increasing that now and currently 14k for the next few weeks. No need to aim for stock target prices which is just gambling and dreaming. 32% return on my main account last year when I started this and 50% on the retirement account.
stay clear of bayer.
I'm not buying any German stocks when the DAX is trading at all time highs. I'll wait until there's a crash or I start seeing headlines like "German market uninvestable."
Buy low, sell high
not buying DAX bc of high tax on dividends.
DAX is a performance index. DAX points include reinvested dividends! DAX as a share price index would be mostly flat for the last couple of decades... Tells you something about the political environment german businesses operate in.
Thank you for your videos mate.. From my observation and historical market pattern, there might be a bit of turbulence in the market coming up, but here's the deal: Trying to guess what's going to happen next is less important than spreading your bets when trading and thinking long term. It's not about guessing the market's next move; it's about playing it smart and steady...managed to grow a nest egg of around 11BTC to a decent 31BTC in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Lukas Douglas, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape...
HE'S MOSTLY ON TELEGRAMS, USING THE USERNAME...
@lukasTRS
on VOW:
sven, i would not be pretty sure on VOW because:
- own bently, lamborghini audi and thoses assets are not impacted in the stock.
thoses brands could deliver crazy eps, think to ferrari.
VOW invested more than all others, 2 billions, for battery factory r and d, metals refining etc…
if china starts to wake up, i am sure VOW could skyrocket.
That is correct, but still a cyclical
Even TEVA is a better conpany than Bayer... 😅🤣
It would be better to show a good stock to bay
Everything is a buy :-)
My entire roth is rycey
VOW's P/B is 0.3 😅
Yes, but check what makes the B
maybe ASOS, Flow Traders, Amsterdam commodities & ForFarmer deserve a look
Started to invest in Unilever, not so entertaining as Tesla, but that had run its course.
To be honest I would like it a bit cheaper, but everything is very expensive and LSE offers 0% WHT, which helps me get a decent dividend.
I remember you were not very satisfied it last time you checked, maybe it is better now.
I been buying Alibaba for 2 years now too. At least there is a dividend there.
1%, you're going places..
You can collect more than that each month selling a call.
ChatGDP 😂
At this price I believe they are a trap. However when ASML gets back to mean , it will be interesting. *I would put in the same bucket also ADYEN
When Adyen had its huge drop to like 650€,I was about to buy. But before I could, it soared up again and doubled. I had no chance to react. It would be interessting know, if some big investor bought.I mean, how could the sentiment about this stock change so quickly?
How do most of you guys still make profit💰? Even with the downturn of the economy and ever increasing life standards🇨🇦
Interesting, please how can I get more information? I don't want to remain out of ignorance
Thanks a lot for the recommendation.
This is correct, Hattie's strategy has normalized winning trades for me also and it's a huge milestone for me looking back to how it all started..
I'm surprised that this name is being mentioned here, I stumbled upon one of his clients testimony on CNBC news last week.
Bayer will eventually be sued into oblivion over the Dicamba herbicide
Thanks for sharing
most bought stocks are always oversold. Waist of time. Most of your videos you show stocks that are bad buy and you explain why. How about you go other direction?
If you don't understand this, value investing may not be for you. I suggest you reqd Pabrai's work. It will make you understand why Sven does this
No one buys Bayer!
No one should, cancer and wars
@@davidepattibiomed89 👍🏼
Apart from it's one of the most bought.
@@johnristheanswer Dumb money.
Who cares about ASML or Nvidia? Wingstop is the next big business creating the future!
Bayer is a disaster
a video for nothing...unsubscribe
:-)
What exactly is this video supposed to contribute? "I am a value investor", "things can get ugly" , "I'd rather buy a great business", "turnarounds rarely turnaround". The buffett bullshit bingo ❤
If vw is not value investing, than there is something wrong with value seeing or reserch on battry development. Bad reserch, shallow video.
Great Video on Bayer and VW ❤🎉
Thanks! 👍