Oil Stocks (XOM Example Analysis) For 2024
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- Опубликовано: 6 июн 2024
- Here is what you need to know before investing in oil stocks for 2024.
0:00 XOM is A BUY
2:08 Business Developments
5:11 Financials
6:02 Oil Sector
11:06 XOM Stock Valuation
13:06 Investing
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For now, the best 2024 video. Thanks Sven
grazie!
Great value as always Sven!
solid advice. thank you!
Great Video, thank you Sven.
Many thanks!
A lot of good information to consider ! I think I better watch this at least 2 more times :) thank you!!
Thanks for a great video Sven. I enjoy your videos on commodities and regard them as wisdom in a sea of noise.
You don't claim credit in hindsight and you video on Oct 2020 - 'BUY Oil Stocks At Historical Lows - Investing Analysis' shows you are the genuine article. You undertand the cycles and made a very rare video on youtube of telling people about a bargain BEFORE it occurs.
Well researched! I prefer this type of videos - thank you!
More to come!
Ditto.
Great, great, great message!
Buffett has bought a major stake in OXY though, so to him it's an above-average investment. Where do you think your opinion differs from Buffett's?
great video, 100% agree and thanks for producing such high quality analysis!
Much appreciated!
Totally agree. I dca-ed exxon during 2020 and 2021. I was just starting my investing journey and didn't know anything about investing. But i knew oil was ridiculously cheap. So i put all of my extra money into exxon during that period. Now I'm just holding, collecting the dividend and waiting for prices to fall again.
Wow, must be a lot of unrealized gains then
❤TOP research, Sven ! 😊😊😊 Best RUclipsr , keep up great work!
Wow, thanks!
Very nice video, would you say the same for ENI to avoid dollar risk?
Very good video!!
Great analysis, what's your take on CREI recent drop?
Nice video as always Sven.
Really appreciated your perspective and I fully agree. I think the "oil to 100 because inflation" is weird, since inflation hits the cost aswell, like in 1973 oil was 5$ a barrel and it was considered crazy high. It putting the carrige before the horse. High oil prices, bring inflation and money for big oil, not the other way around.
US companies are lowering their cost compared to the others (because shale).
I think owning oil can be good to offset geopolitical risk and get some cash flow, but a pure value investor can do better right now.
Same for Chevron
offseting risk and cash flow is all i need.
Excellent analysis as always.
I somewhat learned not to invest in individual oil stocks when I bought BP and they had a major spill in the gulf of Mexico. The stock did not do anything for almost a decade.
I have done really well owning XLE and VDE. Both with dividends and $ cost averaging, are up 100% in past 5 years. When you buy a mix, if one of them fails, it won't be my case like BP.
I say somewhat, because I do own EPD. I don't see them as volatile since they are a toll road for these major oils and price of oil does not really impact them. They have a healthy dividend, but then you get K-1 at the end of the year, which can be tricky on what type of account you own it in the US.
TY
How do you see ENI the italian oil company with forward PE of 6 and 6 % div?
Thanks for the great video Sven! Interesting as always! In your opinion why some companies do buybacks when the price is high as in this case? Is it on purpose ?
Thank you Sven- I have gotten a lot out of your videos over the past couple of years. What do you think of CQQQ and FXI? I have started a position in both just based on how low those ETFs have gone lately. I will wait until oil goes down or recession officially hits. Thanks again!
Agreed. I think we'll need oil for a while yet.......
We’ll need oil forever. Well, as long as any sort of modern society exists.
Which software do you use to compare the buybacks and the price of shares?
Thanks
:-*
Tangible Book Value is the way to go!
I agree on several points you made, but why do you think Buffett keeps buying OXY if “this” (meaning the sector) is just a “hold”? Maybe he sees something on the geopolitical front or the supply/demand (low investments for the past 10 years) that others are not seeing?
Thanks Sven fo a video! Can you make a similar one about natural gas?
When will be the best time to invest in the green transition? Etf funds like PBW / ICLN?
Sven what do you think about STR - Sitio Royalties?
Oil is and will remain a neccessity in many, many crucial things. Even if everybody including Africans starts driving EVs tomorrow, we will still needs tons and tons of oil for flying, manufacturing, medicine, rocket fuel, ship fuel and many many other things. The oil you use for driving is just the tiny tip of the iceberg of oil demand.
The green transition is just hanky panky.😂 this made my day. I buy somw chevron😎
:-)))
Hi
What you think about NEE?
glad sven is positive about oil. i have bought a lot of oil stocks. they are very cheap.
I would say more neutral at these levels
XOM is an analyst favorite for oil...
14:00 The stock goes down because earnings decline. As earnings decline there is less/no money to do buybacks. What you would have to do as a CFO is retain earnings in good times and use that cash to do the buy back in bad times. That should actually be a no-brainer for cyclical companies. But for some reason common sense doesn't seem to be that common.
Such a great vid!
Question about buybacks:
As value investors, should we be worried if a company we own does buybacks at a “too-high” price?
We can just sell some shares to offset the effect. Or do I miss something?
(Further, if we own it, we think it’s probably at a reasonable price!)
that is the eternal question with buybacks! Owning it is one, buying more is another - XOM has a history of destroying shareholder value with buybacks because they are a cyclical. More about buybacks: ruclips.net/video/cOsmKebWLTI/видео.html
Buffett has been buying Occidental, last period. Do you think he's wrong?
Hi Sven, are you going to make any videos on Canadian businesses?
when the Canadian economy is in trouble, you lose your job and there is a real estate crisis.... so hopefully never...
Do you not think BP is more undervalued at the moment? It would be great if you did a deep dive on this stock !
I think oil stocks are fairly priced now, so we will wait for mispricings
Ciao Sven ,can you do the same analysys on consol energy,with Natural gas low and buyback and dividend haig(plus einhorn Is insider)?thanks
thanks for suggesting
NFE is an interesting energy play for the green transition near $30 - it’s LNG not oil tho. Selling nat gas to emerging mkts burns cleaner than coal/oil. NFE makes a spread between cheap U.S. gas and expensive energy prices in Caribbean/South America. EBITDA should be about 1/3 of the market cap in 2 years, as contracted projects are coming online. Founded by private equity billionaire Wes Edens - owns like 26% of the shares
IEA has been consistently under estimating the explosive growth in net zero cost energies (renewables) and I don't think has properly modeled fossil fuel demand decline in China. Will that disruption spread to other areas?
Sven I would recommend to you to read the OPEC oil report, because you have your numbers wrong. Oil consumption 2023 was already at 102.1 million barrels per day. For 2025 OPEC projects 106.2 million barrels per day. It is essential in investing to read and get the numbers right.
You're missing the point.
Sell your oil stocks when they increase their buybacks.
Why is that? Isn't it good for the company and investors if they buy back their stocks?
Utter nonsense
usually buy backs are at the highest levels when oil is most expensive. Thats when you sell cyclical stocks :)
Is this financial advice?
Big oil invested (and still needed) in alt for future. They’re smart and hedge bets.
thanks for sharing!
In addition, have to consider that one of the biggest fuel oil consumers are the shipping companies which are also aiming to net zero emissions by 2050. Container shipping companies such as Maersk and CMA CGM are already heavily invested in alternative fuels such as LNG / biofuels.
slowly but surely things are moving
Staying on the same subject, the current disruption in Red Sea will lead to a higher demand as all the transits from/to Asia/Europe/US E coast are re-routed through S Africa. This deviation leads to considerable higher fuel consumption/demand.
Can you pls cover EVVTY stock? They have impressive margin and growth
Also a good dividend end low debt. I cannot see the risk there, but it must be some risk. Can you please point out their risk?
Are you concerned about the divergence in GDI and GDP? Do you care much about recession indicators or do you completely disregard timing the market?
Do major oil companies hedge a % of their future oil sales to help smooth out the volatility in oil prices?
Nope
Just chimed in to say I'm still holding the bag of BABA, since it was a "great company" to own, even at $200 / share, right?
The research looked promising and the valuation was so good
It is a good bag
That’s the game you play with Chinese stocks in general…
XOM is the best energy stock. Hold forever
If oil prices drop to $40 again I will load the boat because average production cost now is closer to $60. Whenever the price of a commodity drops below the average cost of production you know that higher cost producers will have to shut down and a shortage will develop.
May I ask, how much will this cost?
When I say, I don't want to spend a lot.
If you search 2009-2014, you change your mind. Now is the time to collect them.
thanks for sharing, interesting perspective
my advice is to buy low, sell high. Not vice versa; I tried that and it doesn't work.
9:40 So prices will go down unless there is war in the middle east. Something that we can argue Iran would keep pushing up.
The oil sector has such a large interest by states that the businesses cannot operate optimally. The market is distorted. This is a major negative factor for investing in oil.
It may be better to own a business that is socially and politically uninteresting or unimportant. Or a business that is too hard, complicated or fast-moving to control in practice. Because, freedom to operate without external constaints is the dream of capitalists. No external control allows merging businesses and cornering markets, which leads to maximal return to owners' capital (at the expense of the customers').
thanks for sharing!
I invested 8 grand into oxycidental. For long investment
thanks for sharing!
I’ve been watching all of your recent videos and at the same time you say we can’t time the market and it’s better to be invested etc, every company you evaluate is not a buy. Even the ones that you say are good, at the end of the video they’re not good enough/are too expensive. How can one be invested and not seated in a pile of cash if at the same time NOTHING is a buy? I don’t mean to criticize but it’s contradictory
Analysis totally skewed because you rely on IEA’s crazy projections and net-zero lunacy.
HKEX oil stocks can be good when the cycle is low because they have around 8-10% div.
I don’t like oil but if I did buy one it would be oxy.
How are we supposed to trust a compnanys management with our money when they don t even ''know'' when to buyback their own shares !!
I understand what you’re saying but your model isn’t adjusting for inflation.
good point, but supply and demand is more important for good entry points
Its Borat's better looking brother!
With Trump in the WH, oil companies will have a ball !!
I don't want oil stocks. I want oil.
:-)
2010's was not that good decade for oil, i think 2020's will be a lot better. There is no shale revolution now and capex spending was missing in the 2010's. Just think what will happen to e.g. russian production couple of years from now. Exxon likely isnt a good investment at these levels, i think you are right. There are many cheaper ones though that may be?
Xom is a little dissappointing lately. Hate to see you trashing the opinions on seekingalpha, but you may be right.
with lower prices everything will be lower as explained
How to invest in oil stocks/cyclicals: you simply don't.
that is also a point!
Another oil crash, let's go
I really hope trump gets elected, he will quote “drill baby drill” and make oil prices drop. Then i will load up on oil companies.
Seeking alpha is such low quality content.
I use it for info collecting