Is This AI Drug Discovery Stock a Bargain?
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- Опубликовано: 7 июн 2024
- AbCellera stock was a pandemic darling, with their first day of trading seeing a valuation of nearly $13 billion. The AI drug discovery stock - which we happen to like - has now tumbled over 90%, leaving investors wondering whether it's time to buy.
We see a lot of appeal in a platform that can reduce the time it takes to bring drugs to market, especially one that was tested and proven in the times of the 'Rona. But why do they now only have six noteworthy molecules in the clinic? And why are four of them from a private company called NovaRock? There's a lot of uncertainty surrounding ABCL stock these days, and we need to see some more success before we decide to go long.
RESEARCH PIECES USED IN THIS VIDEO:
1. Why ABCL Stock is Falling
• AbCellera Stock Analys...
2. AbCellera Stock: Why We Love the Uncertainty
www.nanalyze.com/2022/03/abce...
3. AbCellera Stock - Turning Antibodies Into Drugs
www.nanalyze.com/2021/05/abce...
4. Four AI Drug Discovery Stocks On Sale - 50% Off
www.nanalyze.com/2022/03/four...
CHAPTERS:
00:00 Intro
00:54 How it started
02:06 Valuing AbCellera
03:33 AbCellera's candidates
04:12 The Antibody Engine
06:13 Downstream revenue
08:33 Molecules in the clinic
10:18 Partners
13:45 Financials
14:13 Parting thoughts
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I have heard that Peter Thiel is left the company as one of the board members, not sure if that is true though! cheers man! your content is always very informative and valuable.
Mr. Thiel left their board on March 7th 2024. “AbCellera continues to expand the frontier of biotech, a nefariously difficult and vital field,” Thiel said in a news release. “I am proud to have helped them with their mission.” He is said to have left for personal reasons.
Really glad to hear such positive feedback about our content, thank you! Joe P.
Very informative video. I am owning this stock, got in and out and am up a lot but the recent developments or lack thereof, do not look promising.
Really glad to hear you found the video informative. We really like the idea of an engine that churns out drugs but would like to see more downstream success before jumping on board. If that means paying more later, that's fine.
I worked in the Rx industry for several years and understood quickly how many molecules or potential candidates fall by the wayside during clinical trials. That is less concerning to me .... however, I need to see a blockbuster-like candidate appear in the pipeline before investing any further. I have a few thousand shares, luckily purchased under 5$. Like Joe says its worth the wait for now......
Thank you for the comment Frank! Hopefully they start seeing more downstream successes.
now the stock is only ~$3.60 lol... next week earnings will probably put stock into penny range territory...
@@sheldoncooper0 Anything can happen
Satya Nadella very recently joined the board of Starbucks. As someone who thinks about tech investing a lot, I think you should consider why this is, keeping in context how deep in AI his company is, and how AI will impact simple tasks in businesses first. Think Wendy's and the automated drive thru.
As long-time investors in McDonalds (we've covered their tech aspirations in numerous articles) the use of AI in food service is always interesting.
Could Google's Isomorphic Labs reap all the rewards in this field and leave all others eating dust? They're by far the most capable of all imo, with Demis Hassabis at the helm. And AlphaFold 3 is not likely to be open sourced apparently, so they're serious about making $ in this market. What do you think?
Really like your content!
Thank you very much for the financial support! It's must appreciated. One of my favorite documentaries on AI is AlphaGo which everyone should watch (even though it's a bit dated). Read this on Wikipedia, "In May 2024, Google DeepMind and Isomorphic Labs announced the release of AlphaFold 3, freely available on the AlphaFold server for non-commercial research." There may be room for multiple winners in this space, though your comment is a good one. All the publicly traded AI discovery companies (and the dozens that aren't) have a very formidable competitor to be concerned with now with Google entering the ring. Good comment, thank you for tip :) Joe P.
Thanks! Joe
Nice review . I’m invested in Abcellera , Recursion & Exscientia. I’m underwater in
ABCL as I bought at 8-9 dollars
Got in Recursion & Exscientia at the lows .
Enjoy the eye candy in Czech Republic &
I’ll see you on the Star Ferry ⛴️
The Star Ferry is one of the best things you can spend 50 cents on. Thank you for the financial support Doug! It means a lot :) Joe P.
I agree Joe .
I’ve been on the Star Ferry ⛴️ at least 20 times . Always fun
HK is a great walking 🚶♂️ city
And the high tea at the peninsula hotel is great 😊
@@dougtrvl888 Great to see you enjoy HK as much as I do Doug! People fall in love with other people all the time. I'm not sure many fall so deeply in love with a city. I've heard other people try to explain why (I certainly can't), and one used the word "magical." That's a very appropriate word. My heart is always in Hong Kong and I visit her regularly despite being on the road a lot. I'll be sure to give a shout out on our Discord channel when I'm there to meet any subscribers we have in my favorite city in the whole wide world. :) Joe P.
Cool! The Czechs have been key proponents of advanced jet trainers/light fighters for decades now. The F/A-259 Striker could be the new F-5 Freedom, ideally positioned to economically & disproportionately benefit from current & near future "force multipliers" like PGMs, miniaturisation of electronics, secure battlefield & satellite comms, global networks, big data, & advanced algos of all kinds. Hungarians bot 'em.
Nobody lately seems to have the muscle to spam such low-cost platforms to reap the "easy" wins of economies of scale & lower TCO, but who knows. Fighter budget's migrating over to UAVs, & this'll keep the _Schwarm_ supervisor in the air while big money, full-featured MIC-fave F-35s are looking hi-octane profligate & foolish. o/
Some great information on a very interesting topic, thank you for sharing! Indeed the Czechs are still building training fighters and you can get them to take you up in one if you look around! :)
Thanks for your video.
(And your videos in general)
I sold Abcl last year as it became too risky for me.
The pipeline is still weak despite more and more partnerships.
No drug will be commercialized soon (if they discover something good).
Moreover competition is growing in this field and I think there are better companies elsewhere at the moment.
Finally Thiel left for “personal reason” is quite strange…
Anyway I continue to have it in my watch list as it’s a promising field.
You're very welcome. Pipeline does seem weak. Thiel's departure could just be him consolidating stuff on his plate. He left Meta's board the previous year. We'll continue to watch ABCL as well. Next update in a year :)
Who are the better companies?
@@benharris8335 When it comes to AI drug discovery we count about seven: ruclips.net/video/X1avXHVfmFk/видео.html Which ones are "better" comes down to personal opinions.
I do not trade bio-techs simply because I do not believe small or mid-cap pharmaceuticals or bio-techs can be confidently or predictably evaluated, appraised, or forecast. They do not appear to be governed by the old familiar conventional long-established patterns, rules, or statistics ~ values, metrics, or indices. Many who invest in them are driven by something other than shallow temporal rewards ~ the fleeting happiness of monetary gain. A large percentage of them defiantly continue to stay the course in the face of lousy earnings reports that would trigger death-spirals / bankruptcies in almost any companies you could name from other sectors.
We don't invest in biotechs for the same reason. The only exception would be the "factory" approach described in our AI drug discovery videos (SDGR, for example) and some gene editing stocks.
Abcellera is NOT a biotech company. it's a CRO - it's just providing a service for the real biotechs that own the drug program.
@@sheldoncooper0 We like to use objective GICS classifications to determine what companies do
@@Nanalyze I'm a doctor... Abcellera is definitely NOT a biotech.
@@sheldoncooper0 That's great. We're investors, so we're going to go with the objective classification methods professionals in finance use.
Bought that 💩 2 years ago..
Didn't take profits...and cut my losses well above current price...
The key part is figuring out when a company goes from having promise to likely seeing bankruptcy. Bind Therapeutics pulled the same move and the ability to identify these risks early and act on them is tough.
Idk NovaRock looks like a cancer research company
Do you think they would have the resources needed to take a drug (or drugs as it were) through the remaining clinical trials? Or do they just take them along far enough and then try and find a pharma partner?
@@Nanalyze not sure, they have not updated their page since 2023