Great report, Joe. I always look forward to your videos, because I learn something new each time. I own both XOM and CVX. Your Quantigence Dividend Growth Investing Report was very helpful, because it took the guesswork out of investing. In regards to oil protesters, while I support their right to protest, I don't understand their logic of how blocking roads and causing traffic nightmares or damaging priceless works of art help them gain empathy and support for their cause.
Hey George. Couldn't be happier to hear that our report is making your investing life easier. As for the protestors, wreaking havoc does nothing except align people against a particular cause. Waving a placard and creating problems in society is a lot easier than achieving a STEM degree and working to create the world you want to see.
@@Nanalyze Unfortunately you're simple minded in this. Provocative actions are commonly (however regretful) needed to garner media coverage. Media coverage is sadly one of few tools that cut through the personal confined bubble of our worldly education. (This has been well known by so many, for so long, that it is also used inversely to isolate and focus the education of citizens.) It doesn't matter as much what opinion you take, only that you are now informed. It's sad your American culture stops short of knowing that.
@@AndyWarhol1962 It's an unfortunate fact that waving a placard and causing problems in society will always be easier than taking action by positively contributing to society.
Another excellent lucid elucidation for us all, thank you! Hadn't considered the natural hedge in the mixing of upstream and downstream, and wow 'Protect the dividend' as one of the key points on the Chevron deck definitely shows the pressure that an increasing dividend history puts on management to keep the dividend growing!
Thank you for the comment! Great question regarding OXY. I know Chevron is one of his top five holdings too, but I don't know much about OXY or why he holds it. Joe P.
I own both since both are great and dependable US Dividend Aristocrats. I own much more of XOM, but I think CVX is a better buy now since the dividend yield is much higher.
I was born and grew up in a CVX operational area in SE Asia. My parents were employees there. I even went to school there and had worked there as a contractor as well. During my tenure, I can say the people working there are resourceful, highly competent but also humble. I even gained so much experience during my tenure there. Given my rather sentimental attachment to the company, is it a wise decision if I invest in them? (sorry for the potentially dumb question)
Not a dumb question. We wouldn't invest in sentiment alone, but we do like to follow the mantra of "invest in what you know." It sounds like you know the business very well. :)
@@Nanalyze at least I have a clue on how they do their everyday work. The company also took good care of its personnel when I worked there. I always love their mantra that goes: "Do it safely or don't do it at all. There's always time to do it safely". I took that mantra as my personal principle everywhere I go
Thanks Joe! I just can’t help but conclude Ginkgo is too early and is going to fold. The next big name in synbio will have second mover advantage. Thoughts? Sorry this isn’t germane to this video lol
Many synbio companies over the years have tried to harness the power of nature. It's easier said than done. Nothing to add on top of the video we did last month on the topic of Ginkgo: ruclips.net/video/7-cb8SO-d6c/видео.html
Say you had a machine that could realize biomanufacturing, what would be your play? Sell the platform instrument with consumables, contract out R&D work and take royalties, or do in house R&D and find a manufacturer? To be clear biodiesel would be among the last metabolites you’d commercialize, right?
@@adamhanninen8295 The mistake many of these companies have made is to try and become a manufacturer instead of taking an "Intel inside" approach. The platform-with-consumables approach is always appealing. The upstream/downstream monetization plan sounds good on paper, it just hasn't been panning our on the downstream/royalties side. The low-hanging fruit ought to be the most dirty, dull, and dangerous chemicals with the highest prices.
@@Nanalyze thanks Joe - picks and shovels are great, but if the platform tech actually (actually) delivers then I’d be tempted to keep it in-house and have the royalties market make it rain. The margins would be tremendous
@@Nanalyze I love your content. I have been in CHK and DVN for a long time. If CHK and SWN merger is approved it will become a larger NG producer than EQT.
Do you have some substitute predictions that you feel are more valid, and if so, what do they conclude relating to oil? Demand increasing? Slowly decreasing (what the chart shows)? Rapidly decreasing?
@@Nanalyze Yes, and TSLA’s energy storage solutions are growing. This will be critically important to support wind and solar, as well as supplying power during peak load and upsets. The power demands of these AI data centers are incredible. Combine this with EV adoption and Energy generation and storage is growing!📈👍.
Solar is short term and vulnerable as we’ve seen in Cali snow storms, destructive hail and so on. Wind is proving problematic and destructive in the ocean to sea life where LARGE SCALE NUCLEAR is more long term viable with reactor designs getting 60-100 years of use. SMRs may fit some locations, but are not as great on the returns. In the end, nuclear PWR, BWR and SMR as well as developing newer designs are productive with real ROI. The older Pressure Water or heavy water(CANDU) designs are proven and safely operated for decades. These are long term plays and politically sensitive, but the only real option with petroleum/gas as a gap filler. This includes LNG, pipeline and chemicals. Don’t forget heat from nuclear provides a complement to chemical production, service industry support and are not subject to variables in weather like hydro which is still great, but has limitations, but not as limited as wind and solar that present grid issues for industry.
We always look at cost. What methods of producing electricity are most cost effective? Right now that's utility-scale solar. There are plenty of places it can be used where there won't be freak hail/snow storms. Nuclear has lots of promise too as you said.
The government is said to be of the "politically unstable" kind and it's likely that the amount of corruption is very high (cursory searches show that to be true). Probably best avoided. This blurb on their stock exchange shows a frontier market more then an emerging market, "The Guyana Stock Exchange (GSE) is located in Georgetown, Guyana and lists 15 registered companies. Trading takes place on Mondays through word of mouth on the trading floor, which is supported by an electronic limit order book." Joe P.
A startling thought I had about dividends: when I first started investing, Earnings Payout Ratio was key to how safe the dividend is. It was all I followed. THEN, Free Cash Flow payout ratio was important, and that's what I only follow now. BUT THEN, I remembered from accounting in 🅱️ School that dividends reduce retained earnings in the Equity section, thereby reducing the Book Value of the company. Does this mean that Earnings Payout Ratio has always been better indicator in how much the company can grow due to paying dividends? 👀
Great question. The old saying, "Cash is a fact, profit is an opinion" would imply that free cash flow payout ratio is probably still the best measure.
Very timely video for me. I have been eye-banging CVX for a while now, and just yesterday I decided to have a closer look again. This video's appearance is all the proof I need to take my wife's inheritance and bet it all on CVX. The universe is practically demanding it.
@@williamw8546 You only realize gains when you sell a stock. A 10% price movement seems like normal volatility these days for oil stocks. We've been holding these companies for well over a decade, and that's when you start to see just how strong these businesses are to weather the rapid movements of a volatile commodity.
Eh… I would be very cautious about opening new oil positions at this time. We’re heading towards election season here in the US, and fuel prices tend to go lower for political reasons. Add to the fact that Darren Woods, CEO for Exxon talked about the risks and that the revenue could be lower for future quarters.
Hi Joe, another interesting topic. the support for a fossil-free world is growing rapidly, I see something in the developments of alternatives in the field of plastics. In the Netherlands, a factory is currently being built by Avantium (a spin-off from Shell), where the raw material for the PET alternative is made. It is still small, but I think it has a future.
I don’t disagree Oil is here to stay; but don’t you see the agency problem with that first chart lol. It’s also interesting they’re looking into Lithium DLE…. beginning to hedge their bets or merely looking for a quick $?
We noted that when presenting the chart. Do you think the global mix will differ by 2025? The chart suggest the global demand for oil will start slowly declining over time. Seems about right.
It's all out there - either in videos or articles. For those who just want to see our portfolios, that entrance will require bribing the doorman to the tune of one Nanalyze Premium annual subscription ;)
Not familiar enough with the industry to know about which roles are desirable. Anything STEM is probably a good bet when it comes to finding decent employment opportunities. Joe P.
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thats what I did, hard decision so its nice to diversify & buy both. 2 world class companies.
They are both quality companies for sure
Btw, oil is getting easier to get. Technology has enabled this. Finding oil and refining it has become easier than ever.
Yes, a great point!
I work in oil and gas this is 100% true in just the last few years they’ve invented new tech to lower raw crude production cost significantly
Great report, Joe. I always look forward to your videos, because I learn something new each time. I own both XOM and CVX. Your Quantigence Dividend Growth Investing Report was very helpful, because it took the guesswork out of investing.
In regards to oil protesters, while I support their right to protest, I don't understand their logic of how blocking roads and causing traffic nightmares or damaging priceless works of art help them gain empathy and support for their cause.
Hey George. Couldn't be happier to hear that our report is making your investing life easier. As for the protestors, wreaking havoc does nothing except align people against a particular cause. Waving a placard and creating problems in society is a lot easier than achieving a STEM degree and working to create the world you want to see.
@@Nanalyze I couldn't agree with you more, Joe.
@@Nanalyze Unfortunately you're simple minded in this. Provocative actions are commonly (however regretful) needed to garner media coverage. Media coverage is sadly one of few tools that cut through the personal confined bubble of our worldly education. (This has been well known by so many, for so long, that it is also used inversely to isolate and focus the education of citizens.) It doesn't matter as much what opinion you take, only that you are now informed. It's sad your American culture stops short of knowing that.
@@AndyWarhol1962 It's an unfortunate fact that waving a placard and causing problems in society will always be easier than taking action by positively contributing to society.
Another excellent lucid elucidation for us all, thank you! Hadn't considered the natural hedge in the mixing of upstream and downstream, and wow 'Protect the dividend' as one of the key points on the Chevron deck definitely shows the pressure that an increasing dividend history puts on management to keep the dividend growing!
Thank you for the comment! Once these companies get rolling on long track records it seems like they become a real priority to maintain.
concise,clear,brief. thanks for this helpful comparison.I'd love to know why Buffett favours OXY WITH 1/3 OF THE DIVIDEND OF THESE TWO.
Thank you for the comment! Great question regarding OXY. I know Chevron is one of his top five holdings too, but I don't know much about OXY or why he holds it. Joe P.
I own both since both are great and dependable US Dividend Aristocrats. I own much more of XOM, but I think CVX is a better buy now since the dividend yield is much higher.
Thank you for the comment! CVX is also growing their dividend faster.
Love my mid-stream hoss of a hold. Thanks for the analysis, Joe and team!
You're very welcome!
I was born and grew up in a CVX operational area in SE Asia. My parents were employees there. I even went to school there and had worked there as a contractor as well. During my tenure, I can say the people working there are resourceful, highly competent but also humble. I even gained so much experience during my tenure there.
Given my rather sentimental attachment to the company, is it a wise decision if I invest in them? (sorry for the potentially dumb question)
Not a dumb question. We wouldn't invest in sentiment alone, but we do like to follow the mantra of "invest in what you know." It sounds like you know the business very well. :)
@@Nanalyze at least I have a clue on how they do their everyday work. The company also took good care of its personnel when I worked there.
I always love their mantra that goes: "Do it safely or don't do it at all. There's always time to do it safely".
I took that mantra as my personal principle everywhere I go
Thanks Joe! I just can’t help but conclude Ginkgo is too early and is going to fold. The next big name in synbio will have second mover advantage. Thoughts? Sorry this isn’t germane to this video lol
Many synbio companies over the years have tried to harness the power of nature. It's easier said than done. Nothing to add on top of the video we did last month on the topic of Ginkgo: ruclips.net/video/7-cb8SO-d6c/видео.html
Say you had a machine that could realize biomanufacturing, what would be your play? Sell the platform instrument with consumables, contract out R&D work and take royalties, or do in house R&D and find a manufacturer? To be clear biodiesel would be among the last metabolites you’d commercialize, right?
@@adamhanninen8295 The mistake many of these companies have made is to try and become a manufacturer instead of taking an "Intel inside" approach. The platform-with-consumables approach is always appealing. The upstream/downstream monetization plan sounds good on paper, it just hasn't been panning our on the downstream/royalties side. The low-hanging fruit ought to be the most dirty, dull, and dangerous chemicals with the highest prices.
@@Nanalyze thanks Joe - picks and shovels are great, but if the platform tech actually (actually) delivers then I’d be tempted to keep it in-house and have the royalties market make it rain. The margins would be tremendous
Is it better to invest in smaller oil companies that are not subjective to the same regulations as Chevron or ExxonMobil?
Larger companies enjoy economies of scale. It's a highly regulated industry where nobody is immune to the long fingers of regulation.
@@Nanalyze I love your content. I have been in CHK and DVN for a long time. If CHK and SWN merger is approved it will become a larger NG producer than EQT.
@@dirkmoore4224 Great to hear you're finding our content useful!
are these based on the IEA predictions that have been maximally wrong for the last 20 years? 0:15
Do you have some substitute predictions that you feel are more valid, and if so, what do they conclude relating to oil? Demand increasing? Slowly decreasing (what the chart shows)? Rapidly decreasing?
I invest in energy. All forms are required for decades. Diversify and best wishes. XOM, CVX, TSLA….
The percentage of revenues a company derives from energy is important to note (re: TSLA).
@@Nanalyze Yes, and TSLA’s energy storage solutions are growing. This will be critically important to support wind and solar, as well as supplying power during peak load and upsets. The power demands of these AI data centers are incredible. Combine this with EV adoption and Energy generation and storage is growing!📈👍.
@@svenhodaka9145 Something we covered recently here: ruclips.net/video/nT4kbdJRYc8/видео.html
@@Nanalyze Thanks.
👋from🇨🇦😁
Solar is short term and vulnerable as we’ve seen in Cali snow storms, destructive hail and so on. Wind is proving problematic and destructive in the ocean to sea life where LARGE SCALE NUCLEAR is more long term viable with reactor designs getting 60-100 years of use. SMRs may fit some locations, but are not as great on the returns. In the end, nuclear PWR, BWR and SMR as well as developing newer designs are productive with real ROI. The older Pressure Water or heavy water(CANDU) designs are proven and safely operated for decades. These are long term plays and politically sensitive, but the only real option with petroleum/gas as a gap filler. This includes LNG, pipeline and chemicals.
Don’t forget heat from nuclear provides a complement to chemical production, service industry support and are not subject to variables in weather like hydro which is still great, but has limitations, but not as limited as wind and solar that present grid issues for industry.
We always look at cost. What methods of producing electricity are most cost effective? Right now that's utility-scale solar. There are plenty of places it can be used where there won't be freak hail/snow storms. Nuclear has lots of promise too as you said.
Thanks for amother educational video.
Are you familiar with any publicly traded instruments focused on Guyana? I couldn't find anything.
All the best.
The government is said to be of the "politically unstable" kind and it's likely that the amount of corruption is very high (cursory searches show that to be true). Probably best avoided. This blurb on their stock exchange shows a frontier market more then an emerging market, "The Guyana Stock Exchange (GSE) is located in Georgetown, Guyana and lists 15 registered companies. Trading takes place on Mondays through word of mouth on the trading floor, which is supported by an electronic limit order book." Joe P.
A startling thought I had about dividends: when I first started investing, Earnings Payout Ratio was key to how safe the dividend is. It was all I followed.
THEN, Free Cash Flow payout ratio was important, and that's what I only follow now.
BUT THEN, I remembered from accounting in 🅱️ School that dividends reduce retained earnings in the Equity section, thereby reducing the Book Value of the company.
Does this mean that Earnings Payout Ratio has always been better indicator in how much the company can grow due to paying dividends? 👀
Great question. The old saying, "Cash is a fact, profit is an opinion" would imply that free cash flow payout ratio is probably still the best measure.
@@Nanalyze makes sense. Thank you sir. 👌
Very timely video for me. I have been eye-banging CVX for a while now, and just yesterday I decided to have a closer look again. This video's appearance is all the proof I need to take my wife's inheritance and bet it all on CVX. The universe is practically demanding it.
Hero or zero baby
It’s relatively high right now if you have patience wait for it to go down a little then buy in, I got cvx at 14x last October and made over 10% gain.
Great analysis , I got cvx at 14x last October and made over 10% gain.
@@williamw8546 You only realize gains when you sell a stock. A 10% price movement seems like normal volatility these days for oil stocks. We've been holding these companies for well over a decade, and that's when you start to see just how strong these businesses are to weather the rapid movements of a volatile commodity.
Don’t buy CVX stock. Full port call options instead. Think Big.
Eh… I would be very cautious about opening new oil positions at this time. We’re heading towards election season here in the US, and fuel prices tend to go lower for political reasons. Add to the fact that Darren Woods, CEO for Exxon talked about the risks and that the revenue could be lower for future quarters.
Good points. Or some Middle Eastern company can start launching rockets again and the price of oil can skyrocket. It's a very volatile space.
Hi Joe, another interesting topic. the support for a fossil-free world is growing rapidly, I see something in the developments of alternatives in the field of plastics. In the Netherlands, a factory is currently being built by Avantium (a spin-off from Shell), where the raw material for the PET alternative is made. It is still small, but I think it has a future.
We'll keep an eye on this stuff. Ideally, it needs to be self-sustaining without subsidies.
But in the USA electric cars demand is dropping.
@@Jon-da-bad It's going to rise and fall, yes, it's the longer term trend we're paying attention to
I don’t disagree Oil is here to stay; but don’t you see the agency problem with that first chart lol. It’s also interesting they’re looking into Lithium DLE…. beginning to hedge their bets or merely looking for a quick $?
We noted that when presenting the chart. Do you think the global mix will differ by 2025? The chart suggest the global demand for oil will start slowly declining over time. Seems about right.
What are the solar and wind energy stocks that Nanalyze team invests on?
It's all out there - either in videos or articles. For those who just want to see our portfolios, that entrance will require bribing the doorman to the tune of one Nanalyze Premium annual subscription ;)
You and I analyzed oil with a few key different takes. I found this interesting.
Great to hear!
i wanna be an oil heating tech is this a waste of time?
Not familiar enough with the industry to know about which roles are desirable. Anything STEM is probably a good bet when it comes to finding decent employment opportunities. Joe P.
Outstanding!
Thank you for the kind words!
Chevron stock buybacks. ❤️❤️❤️❤️
Only if shares are trading at a value that makes the buybacks worthwhile
Oil is forever 😍
It's pretty entrenched throughout the world