Since making this video, I've come across news reports that Prigozhin has returned to Russia from Belarus, and even had a sit-down with Putin. If true, Prigozhin must be one of only a handful of men in recent history who have attempted coups, failed, then gone on to rejoin the government which they attempted to overthrow. Putin must be trying to defuse the situation by portraying the mutiny as a misunderstanding, which is unconvincing, and will probably hurt his prestige in the long run. Perhaps the ongoing Ukrainian counter-offensive has pushed him to try and close ranks and hide any internal cracks which might embolden the Ukrainians and give them extra leverage in future negotiations. I still think his best option is to "deal" with Prigozhin. Do you agree?
I'm no expert, which does not keep me from giving an opinion... I suppose that the loss of the Wagner group, apparently the best fighting group Russia had, would be a major loss for Putin. He needs to get them back to the front minus Prigozhin. So, he's walking a thin line. Maybe the Wagner group officers are the key here. Are they ready to fight on on Russia's side as long as Prigozhin is spared? If so, then look for the Wagner group to be spread into Russian regular army units and, once their sprit de corps is diluted, Prigozhin will suffer an unfortunate accident.
Thanks Amir! Another well researched, professionally produced presentation! I will need to watch this a few times, given the amount of amazing research and issues raised! You are, indeed, an historian with a very fresh perspective!
I agree with your conclusion - that Putin will ultimately be forced to take violent action against Prigozhin, else invite further challenges to his authority. I wonder, though, what Lukashenko's interests would be in this matter (to keep Prigozhin alive or to collaborate with Putin).
0:00 Intro 0:47 Who is Prigozhin (the rebel)? 1:56 Prigozhin in Ukraine 2:31 Why Russia is not an isolated case 3:41 Rebellion in Ancient Rome 4:41 Rebellion in America 8:57 Prigozhin prepares for a coup 10:22 Prigozhin's march on Moscow 11:42 Why did the coup fail?
Since making this video, I've come across news reports that Prigozhin has returned to Russia from Belarus, and even had a sit-down with Putin. If true, Prigozhin must be one of only a handful of men in recent history who have attempted coups, failed, then gone on to rejoin the government which they attempted to overthrow. Putin must be trying to defuse the situation by portraying the mutiny as a misunderstanding, which is unconvincing, and will probably hurt his prestige in the long run. Perhaps the ongoing Ukrainian counter-offensive has pushed him to try and close ranks and hide any internal cracks which might embolden the Ukrainians and give them extra leverage in future negotiations. I still think his best option is to "deal" with Prigozhin. Do you agree?
I'm no expert, which does not keep me from giving an opinion... I suppose that the loss of the Wagner group, apparently the best fighting group Russia had, would be a major loss for Putin. He needs to get them back to the front minus Prigozhin. So, he's walking a thin line. Maybe the Wagner group officers are the key here. Are they ready to fight on on Russia's side as long as Prigozhin is spared? If so, then look for the Wagner group to be spread into Russian regular army units and, once their sprit de corps is diluted, Prigozhin will suffer an unfortunate accident.
I can’t stop replaying the intro
Well done Amir - love the research and insight you've provided.
I'm not sure we'll ever know what Prigozhin was really thinking here.
A classic case when “street smarts” aren’t applicable
Thanks Amir! Another well researched, professionally produced presentation! I will need to watch this a few times, given the amount of amazing research and issues raised! You are, indeed, an historian with a very fresh perspective!
I agree with your conclusion - that Putin will ultimately be forced to take violent action against Prigozhin, else invite further challenges to his authority. I wonder, though, what Lukashenko's interests would be in this matter (to keep Prigozhin alive or to collaborate with Putin).
0:00 Intro
0:47 Who is Prigozhin (the rebel)?
1:56 Prigozhin in Ukraine
2:31 Why Russia is not an isolated case
3:41 Rebellion in Ancient Rome
4:41 Rebellion in America
8:57 Prigozhin prepares for a coup
10:22 Prigozhin's march on Moscow
11:42 Why did the coup fail?