Austan Goolsbee on The Federal Reserve's Golden Path and The Reality of Economic Data
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- Опубликовано: 1 июл 2024
- An interview with Austan Goolsbee, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, on economic data and where he thinks the Fed might be going next.
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Great interview Kyla and hope you continued success getting the attention of larger and larger audiences.
He is smart.
Calling out the foolishness of blaming 'high wages' for inflation.
Also good, pointing out that prices are too high.
Separation of the stock market vs the real economy is fantastic. He points out how many people do not own stocks.
The finance industry needs to start embracing the tools and methods of causal inference. It's not enough to identify leading and lagging indicators. You have to also model the interactions between these factors to make predictions in the presence of intervention.
This was an fantastic interview. Extremely informative, well paced, and relevant. Thank you!
You’re appreciated Kyla!
In vandalia, Illinois, the amish and menenite families, there are thousands and thousands of them,have thier own chickens and cows and what not, grow there own feed corn, they have 200 year old saw mills that cut the boards to build their houses barns and horse drawn buggies, they have honey, maple sugar, herbs, fruit berries, tons of veggies, et cetera , they buy very little , like burlap for bags and cloth for clothes and cork and certain tools, how does all that get counted in the national economic data, they have a very self sufficient culture and regional economy, also im not amish but i built my house my self with no building permits out in the praire, 1/2 acre, 800sqft for 27k , pole barn houses are industrial strength buildings that use a lot less 2x4s, realtors said i could get 75k right now, handmade cabinets and doors and wood furniture, i bought energy efficient windows and central a/c and heat and a water heater, and linoleum sticky tiles for flooring and paint, i get compliments on how beautiful it is, i have solar panels that i sell electric back to the power company, and many many many house are being built this same way right with no building permits outside city limits, now from effingham to marion, danville to carbondale, people are building pole barn houses for themselves every where in this region, central rural illinois, how does that get factored in to housing "data" and gdp "data" theres no permits or anything, you can build whaever you whant out here, and its nobodys business?, i keep seeing stats about "everybody moving out of illinois" but im from florida and a lot of my neighbors are from texas and denver and arizona, seems weird because i "see" a lot of people moving here to central illinois where there are tons of jobs and very cheap land and housing, there are 3 to 4 times as many immigrant mexicans working fast food and what not, more this year than ive ever seen before, somethings fishy in the "official storyline" of mass exodus out of illinois, also there are more solar panels on houses and hundreds of giant fields of solar panels here in central il, more than anywhere else i go, im a trucker ie been from california to florida. Also i see men in home depot with an infant in a carrier and two or three toddlers, all the time, theres an explosion of babies here, its crazy they say florida birth rate is declining, ya every body is 40 to 90 yrs old, here there are babies everywhere, everybodys got 3 to 4 to 5 or more kids, seems fishy that they talk of declining birthrates, its not here in central illinois!!!! Why is the data always "averages" of states super elderly states like FL and AZ should that be taken into consideration when calculating, with TX and IL and NC are baby boom land!!! Also many women preffer one pregnancy with twins or triplets, fertility treatment would be a easy solution to population decline, but "men-centric p.o.v." would never dream of this solution, whereas if women were in control of their bodies i have a feeling many women would be "one and done" with one pregnancy, with a boy and girl twins, and get on with life, i.m.o..
Incredible interview! 🎉
Awesome video!
Fascinating !!
Maybe one of the problems we have is always looking for certainty.
Lead/lag remains as elusive as always. With the infinite new methods of manipulating the lead indicators by iether changing the label or data, lag seems to be the only bellwether once the proper labels are affixed. Our guy here doesn't make the idea sound too decisive.
What do you have those fox 34s on. Where you ride?
Good podcast
And there was rise crime, catalytic converter stolen cause of metal.
That is also reason if insurance going up.
Lag date of crime 2020 to 2023
I think distributional questions are very import here, and I'm suspecting that this might be the source of the apparent noise discussed here. Huge parts of the economy are clearly not doing very well despite the aggregate numbers. I'm a bit disappointed that this doesn't seem to be front and center in Goolsbee's thinking. I don't think the Fed knows what they're doing.
kyla, did suddenly americans start getting into more crashes? no! here’s a hint: look at the accident billboards on the side of the road :)
There is massive hoarding. Tax policy must disincentivize hoarding property before anything will significantly move
No way, i like my hoard of property, your just a crybaby bcuz you dont have any🤣🤣🤣
You have A LOT of bicycles
Also, recession is coming, the Fed better step up
DATA DOG
I can’t put my thumb on it but there’s just something about this guy that I don’t trust at all.
the fed talks way too much
You interviewed a demon about the mechansms of hell.
He brags about his ability to control the poor masses and laughs in your face.
@@bennycarter5249bro you’re insane