Rolex RAMPS UP production - BIGGEST THREAT YET? Grey Market Dealer OPENS UP
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- Опубликовано: 17 июн 2024
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1.2 million timepieces in 2023 with sales of 10.1 billion Swiss francs. That is the monopolistic business juggernaut we know as Rolex. They pump out 680,000 more units than their closest rival Cartier and yet you still cant get the watch you want brand new at Retail. Well, Rolex have a plan for that!
Or do they?....With new temporary production facilities scheduled to open only next year, it is time now to address these questions.. Will you be able to buy the rolex you want without a waitlist? Will this crash the values of models STILL sitting at premiums on the grey market? Is this going to be the seismic event as speculated by many that changes the blueprint of the industry from the AD buying experience to perhaps the redundancy of the grey market dealer?
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I think the majority of regular customers have lost interest in Rolexes as they’re fed up with the Lies from their AD’s .
It’s called watch market fatigue and it’s definitely a real thing. Eventually people just get fed up with all the AD bullshit and just lose interest in watches/Rolex altogether.
Yes, I’ve been waiting for a year for a not particularly spectacular model to join my sub and gmt ii. I’m a bit over it now. Might just get another Ducati instead.
@@Vusseyv881 So far I’m over 3 years on a list
@@Vusseyv881I can’t even get a Rolex. Just bought and omega and Tudor instead. Fucking he’ll it’s such a stupid game. Ducati is fun, maybe I’ll join 😂 buying one
Definitely over it. I don’t buy umpteen watches a year, but I’ve given my AD a good chunk of business over the years and I’ve been loyal to their establishment. Every Rolex and other watch I bought brand new came from them. I wanted a basic stainless submariner for my 40th birthday. I was told all three identical stainless submariners on display, that had price tags, were “not for sale”. I was told nothing was for sale….yet a few minutes later they offered me a Day-Date in everose for $43k. A watch that moments earlier was “not for sale”. Then they tried to get me to buy other stuff like it was my ticket to buy the watch I wanted. I told them what I thought about this and walked. I wound up buying a nice unworn 1984 submariner with box and papers for my 40th birthday. I will never buy from another AD again. There’s something very disgusting and insulting about a business model where you have to buy several more expensive watches for the “privilege” of buying a $9-10k submariner that they have multiple examples of on display. It’s not a shortage. It’s a scam.
Grey markets exist for everything, Porsche gt3rs, limited editionSports shoes and way back in time bread in Communist countries. Its been two years since the peak and youtubers still talking about it......😅
Screw the grey markets and supply the ones needed by the customers. The market is not going to be good forever. Soon, the demand will go down and the supply will be exceeded.
@@lawrencechong237 fortune tellers should look at stock markets ha ha
the demand is fake though. its created by GM dealers hoovering up all the desirable steelies, as long as they can continue to fund that, anyone wanting one will still have to buy at a premium.
Exactly. There’s demand - for steel and a few precious metal models - at retail. I bet the majority of people turned away at the AD take one look at grey prices, laugh, and move on to other brands.
@@WestCoastAce27it’s only demand for steel. Not precious metal. But I’m not buying a tacky watch same goes for 90% of Rolex people
It just doesn't feel right paying over MSRP on goods, I don't care if it's a 10 dollar beer at a stadium or 10,000 watch. I'd just feel like a sucker every time I look at the watch.
If Rolex produces more and more supply, people stop going into AD's because we are tired of the Pandemic Games then possibly the market may offer Rolex below RRP.
Rolex got cocky and now they are going to pay the price especially when the global economy tanks in the greatest global depression we have seen in our lifetimes
Yeah no ...rolex is perfectly fine .
@@Pler1978🚨🚨🚨
Without trying to be mean, the average Rolex buyer is your “recruiter of the month”. That’s the consumer they are targeting
Yeah shocking number of rolex buyers are barely even upper middle class.
@Pler1978 WTF is class got to do with it. Rolex watches were originally designed as tool watches. I'm an extremely hard working builder. Who bought my watches . I didn't get into debt to do so. Knobend
@@johncoyle8191 respectfully, you were born in the 40s… you avoided the wars, got free education and houses cost twenty grand. You didn’t work hard, you were just incredibly lucky
@andrewsouth1696 you're a funny guy wetwipe. Me and the men like me built and maintain the world you live in. When it all goes wrong we won't be looking for help from office walloper. We will need men not boys who are good with their hands . In both ways. Luck has zero to do with it
@andrewsouth1696 keep telling yourself that ❄️ snowflake . Don't know if mummy and daddy told you. The world isn't fair and try not to make assumptions about people who you haven't got the slightest clue about . I grew up in one of the toughest housing schemes in Scotland in the 70s and 80s. Lucky. 🤣🤣.this is the most privileged generation that's every lived . Yet do the most crying and constantly on about my feelings. Wake up and smell the coffee
Not sure how the 30% figure of demand was calculated but if it is from rolex stores judging it based on wait lists then they'll be in for a shock. Most people on the wait list are looking to flip the watch as soon as they get it, if demand grows so large that profit margins decrease then we will see demand go down as well.
Many people also want one simply because they can't get one, who's to say they'll still be interested when the wait goes down from 1 years to a few weeks or months? This isn't even factoring in the economic beating we've been getting since 2022 with no signs of recovery. Rolex has to play this perfectly or they could see themselves stuck holding the bag of watches with no buyers in sight.
i don't give a shit about Rolex, I've got a Seiko turtle.
I love Vinny's snapshot of the Rolex factory at 1:46. Couldn't help but notice that the technician has blood sample vials, which is symbolic of Rolex taking every last drop/dollar/pound of our wallets, both new and pre-owned!
Haha that was intentional i promise👀
Rolex will never ever overproduce in demand watches I.e.datonas or subs or even Pepsi. Nice video vin.kind regards Banico.
Agreed!
The additional facilities will be mostly focused on two tone, diamond set and ladies models.
only time will tell!
Rolex needs to have there own stores. And do away with dealers selling to the grey market. I have never bought a Rolex as an investment. And neither should anyone else.
They are have their own stores. The Rolex at schipol airport Amsterdam is a Rolex owned store. They advised to get a hulk back in 2012 I got one in 2014 and a no date and a James Cameron both in 2018. I lost interest and sold them all for a profit.
The watch market is dead ☠️
drop drop
Floating in a backyard pool
Rolex could take control of the gray market by raising prices on its new/unworn stock, and at the same time, pricing CPO pieces below RRP. Now, Rolex lets the AD's pay to bring the pre-owned pieces to the CPO standard AND then Rolex "certifies" the watch in Switzerland, which adds a hefty cost to the watch. If the Rolex cost to certify is removed, the CPO watches could sell below today's RRP. The gray market would then flow through the AD's.
Behind the scenes Rolex AD has many solid gold Rolex watches that they can't sell.
To be honest, who is just going to walk in an AD and spend 40k of a solid gold Rolex.
Even if you can, most people will make purchase on credit.
And now with interest rates around 5 to 7% , it's going to be difficult.
Rolex AD has solid gold models in the windows now and no signs for display only.
That says alot for Rolex AD now.
Agree. Even those with the money would be afraid to wear it in many big cities. So just sits in a safe or wear it once a month? Better to take the $40k and go buy a few $8-12k watches
There needs to be enough production to meet most demand while still be able to charge list price. If you want a Black Sub a Yacht Master or and explorer there should be enough production to get those at list with no wait. Now if you want a Panda or Pepsi maybe its in Rolexes best interest to keep them somewhat rare to maintain hype.
Just start selling fakes mate you'll be right.
I'm after a Polar Explorer 2 and I've been promised same by my Rolex AD sometime this year. I have noticed however that this model is available brand new on the grey around retail and one to two years old for below from reputable sellers. I will stick with my AD who's looked after me but there's no doubt in my mind very few models are a solid flip now, meaning most are available without crazy premiums, or maybe none. That has to be good for those who want a watch to keep. This was pre Covid normality and we are now close.
I was in Harrods a couple of weeks ago and the sales guy said they had an explorer in stock but I didn’t show any interest
yes just keep visiting your AD or maybe some others as this is now a watch which is not difficult to get at retail. A great but too at a reasonable price point compared the the other GMT’s
Would you care to share what city? In Southern California that watch is not available at ADs and the prices on the big grey sites in the US, that watch new or near new commands a 20% premium.
@@WestCoastAce27 I'm in UK. Many grey sellers have this watch under retail in used condition and here the Explorer and Explorer 2 are reasonable aims from an AD, especially one where you are well known.
TWMID 👅 🍭
Watchfinder is claiming 2615 Rolex watches available today
Nothing is going to change unless Rolex clamps down on the scum ADs.
I’ve never brought a Rolex to make money in the past the retail prices are fair and I enjoyed the watches
I've sold all three of my ROLEX. Hulk no date sub and James Cameron. Overrated junk doesn't keep time and flipped for lovely profits.
Rolex watch ⌚ agent dealers are still pricks 🌭 and acting 🎭 like 👍 clowns 🤡 and refuses to sell to anyone but resellers ! So no difference there ! So I am supporting Omega watch ⌚! Sigh 😮💨
Great watches by Omega for sure but I don’t know about you but their price increases are getting ridiculous now i think
Not sure why it’s called the grey market, it’s just a second hand market, that has existed for decades. It will be good to get away from the flipping culture, but second hand Rolex will still be for sale. We might see less opportunitists, but legitimate jewellers will still be selling. We all hope the market cools a little, after the crazy bubble we had. Are we not just returning to what was normal before?
True. But the difference is the quantity of new pieces that go straight to the secondary market. There are stories here and there about people who’ve been waiting and finally getting the call for a Sub. But not that many - at least in big cities - and the sheer numbers of the popular steel sports models isn’t going down on the big grey sites.
Hey Vinny , very good video . I can do better editing in your videos which can help you to get more engagement in your videos . Pls lmk what do you think ?
Well hopefully the grey market dealers will purchase and sell for less. This will really help those who want value (ie. Purchasing below Rolex prices) and want their watch without having to wait years. Win, win.
yeah absolutely, it’s probably much better for dealers and will be easier to shift new stock if it’s cheaper than retail
In the long run that business model would destroy their brand sales and image. Over production does not correlate with luxury.
dj41 ss fluted jubilee gree,blue, Wimbledon going 12k plus on gray market
bloody joke for a fairly basic entry level model
Yes. I’d love to know where they’re seeing Rolexes for retail or lower. In the US that’s not the case - even an Explorer II lists for a pretty big premium.
Worth max 2k imo. Inflated to all *****.
I already got my Rolex. So Fk Rolex as a crime syndicate charitable trust now as it is. 😂
All I care about is my service every 5-10 years, I just walk down to RSC around the corner. Thanks!
Hopefully it will crush the grey market but I doubt it
Love it or hate it, the Grey market is an essential part of the market. Even people that don't intend to sell their watch, need to know that there is a facility to do that if they ever want or need to. A product that has limited capacity to be sold, loses an element of value.
@@dannycaruthers7238 my problem with the grey market is the dealers raping people and running the market up. I understand making a profit but taking a 20k watch and selling it for 7k over msrp or in a lot of cases double or more is not cool
@@dannycaruthers7238 disagree. There are still plenty of watch geek buyers for steel sports models at retail who would never consider selling. I think you underestimate how many affluent males there are who can spend $9-12k for a watch.
Let's hope the additional capacity kills the grey market and resets everyone's expectation that they will make a profit flipping. It will mean the people that want the watch and wear it and keep it will be able to.
In other words let’s hope the brand loses its value and becomes an easy to get non luxury exclusive product? Haha I doubt it
people only want it cuz they cant have it. once ts everywhere, noone will want it.
I agree to an extent with you here. Part of the entire luxury appeal of the brand is its limited accessibility.
@@vinnyfrancis i will bet $1 that in 5 years, shelves will be full of Rolexes again like before covid....
^ exactly this
The watch market is dead.
Gray dealers in Miami are starving. And trying to bargain in the Big money like CRM and a lot of my friends are trading the watches they speculated on for Gold bullion were the market might just in the future.
The ultra rare grail watches will still hold strong but your average SUB, GMT watches are abundant. It’s only gonna take one major player guy to liquidate his stash to see them drop even harder.
unbelieeeevable
So are these just local dealers, no Internet presence? Assuming that’s not just gold models, that’s very surprising. Because that’s shocking that they can’t sell popular Rolexes. Sure, not at silly prices - but if they lowered their prices and advertised on the internet they’d find buyers.
@@WestCoastAce27 some are small time dealers that made a quick buck during the pandemic and bit off more then they can handle.
But unsurprisingly my friend there are a lot of big time players with drawers full of steel watches that speculated and now are upside down and I. Deep water.
I think there is one variable you have completely missed… which is the existing stock and circulation of Rolex watches. Remember, prior to the hype bubble of 2019 - Rolex were still making about a million or so watches every year.
So while you’re correct that demand is outstripping current supply levels - you need to consider the amount of Rolex’s produced over the last 10-20 years, as people still buy them.
Just go on watch finder and see how many hundreds of Rolex watches are sitting in their inventory; and that is just one UK based watch dealer.
So overall, I think the idea that Rolex is hard to get is slightly overblown; you can get them and the market trend for second hand watches is going down ever so gradually until they trade below retail.
yes this is partly true though it doesn’t make any difference to the demand for the the key pillar models (gmt, sub, daytona) at retail. There is still a long way for those to fall at grey to get below retail for demand to potentially fall. Supply on grey market is more liquid than ever though for sure.
@@vinnyfrancis yeah you’re right, the demand for GMT, Daytona is still really high - but even then, there’s still so much inventory of those watches. It doesn’t look like they’re shifting at a fast pace; except the Daytona, Pepsi models, I’d expect all the others to drop in the next 12 months. But only time will tell.
@@behnamsoodavar2 things - many Watch lovers only want a new watch from the AD or boutique and will refuse to buy from the big grey dealers out of principle. The world economy is going to get worse - so the question is how well capitalized are the big dealers?
I have seen and had the opportunity of buying explorer 36’mm and 40mm. Explorer 2. Black and polar. . Sea dweller red text . And james Cameroon . Two tone yacht-master Brown dial .
All these on display in a small boutique and I could buy one of all id I wanted . no games played .
I bought the polar explorer Ans I know I’ll lose money when I sell . it’s fine . I’ve eldest wanted that new ref of this watch :)
Times are changing and days are not far. it’ll happen everywhere
Good choice on the Explorer II. My daily and one of the best Rolex watches imo.
In Australia there is no way to get a Rolex... I entered in a dealership and I have been told that waiting list has fifthy thousands request for any GMT master.... basically they are luffing on new customers ready to spend 17k minimum on a watch..
congrats the Polar explorer has always been a favourite of mine, beautiful dial and dimensions. it’s true that they can be picked up now without much effort
Congrats on the Polar. It’s my main goal now. Mind saying what city or at least country. That’s not the case in any big US city - all steel models w numbers on the bezel are going out the back door to their flippers buddies or longtime customers.
@@WestCoastAce27 United Arab Emirates
Thanks Vinny. you said it,, nothing is going to happen for some time! which means business as usual for you and the other grey market dealers and no submariner for me and many others from the AD. I for one lost interest early this year after waiting over 2 years with nothing to show for it and will invest the money (including the over 2 years interest) into something else.
Thanks Patrick! That’s unacceptable, 2 years wait for anything is just silly, completely removes the fun and rewarding aspect of the purchase. My best advice would be perhaps to visit another AD and recalibrate your thoughts towards a no date sub, I hear these are now quite easy to attain. Best of luck
Really Vinny, you just said you can walk in to a Rolex AD and pick up solid gold and bi metal watches straight away, so why would you build a billion dollar factory to make more gold watches no ones queueing up for? Rolex has done just fine for the last 100 years where you could buy any Rolex walking off the street, and I remember not so long ago when many AD's offered 0% interest over 3 years to buy them. The Rolex brand has always been seen as luxury when anyone could buy them, and pick them up with no issues. I guarantee if Rolex could sell 3 million watches a year they'd do it in a heartbeat.
R's acquisition of Bucherer foretold this.
we're in the end game now
It’s the grey market buying them just wait till the crash lol
The problem for the Rolex market is that the artificial supply demand dynamic of Covid is ending. There was always a ton of supply but now the demand is going down….all while even more supply is being created.
That ended a long time ago, internationally inflation crippled economies over 18 months ago and luxury goods demand has fallen ever since, the grey watch market has stabilised but prices are still marginally falling month on month
I was referring to the general Rolex market. I saw data showing supply of new Rolex watches are up 8% and demand is down 15% at the ADs. That will eventually influences the grey market as why would anyone go to the grey market if they can now get a watch from the AD relatively quickly? My AD told me certain steel models are relatively easy to get now….like certain DJs, Explorer 2 blacks and Explorer 1 36mm. After a few months wait I got a 40 mm Explorer but I’m seeing dozens of posts online of other getting them recently as well…so I think they are shipping en masse now
@@denbo74those aren’t the in demand steel watches. It’s the Subs, GMTs, Daytonas. Rolex could 4x production and sell them all - every yr. But as Vinny explained, Rolex loves the free publicity and mystique.
@@WestCoastAce27 rumor is Subs are getting pretty easy now two. I think in a year the Daytona may be the only tough one to get
You are 💯 rolofht on this and i have i believe Rolex would seriously hurt their brand over producing watches just to make all the complainers happy with availability. Opening factories in a economic slump is bad business decision making. There must be allure and exclusivity to maintain a luxury status, period.
Well i wouldn’t say it’s bad decision making for them, they will absolutely have demand for higher production output but the specific question is, which models are they going to be pumping more of out there? More gold to be sitting in AD back rooms or more steel sports watches we all want and will sell immediately?
@@vinnyfranciswhy will they absolutely get demand for more watches?
@@jayboss2556there’s plenty of watch lovers - and people who want to show off - for Subs, GMTs, Daytonas. In steel. Rolex could boost production of those and sell them to new people every year, not straight to flippers.
Mixed emotions. If Rolex tries to move away from their go to steel sports models it will be a spectacular failure.
But agree that they love the free publicity about the fake demand (the demand is only at retail, new - most will either refuse to buy from a grey out of principle or fear of getting a fake). Otherwise they’d raise their popular steel prices 25% and crush much of the grey market.
yes this is true, they acknowledge that part of their luxury image is built in perceived scarcity.
Rolex want the gray market desperately. Otherwise that would not exist. Because guys like me would get a watch at the AD. The gray market raises the value of the brand.
absolutely true
@Vinny: You are going to make Charlie jealous with those guns!!!
Hahaha thanks man!
But gone will be the days of raking in money at the expense of customers. GM will have to work to make a living and customers will once again be king.
grandpa rolexssi style
Who is actually stupid enough to buy a Rolex above retail? Machine made mass produced watches which are nice in some cases and of ok quality but above retail 😂😂😂
Cuppa and jammy dodgers at the ready
Cuppa and ginger biscuits for me lol ❤
My personal favourites are Hobnobs Milk Chocolate.
@@TheTotalPackage-qo5gxyou are bang on actually…. The luxury biscuit for a luxury watch channel. How dare I use something so cheap. Please forgive me, hobbknobs for the win 🥰
The muppet boiler room watch market is dead
unbelievable
The Watch market is dead
there’s always one😂
Floating face down in a backyard pool
This is all hype. They are just overpriced watches please stop it
not hyping anything, please watch the video and you’ll find out that
They’re fantastic watches - at retail. Greedy undercapitalized grey market dealers are going to be in dire straits.
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