MILLION Dollar Mistake? (insane poker hand)
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- Опубликовано: 21 сен 2024
- With millions of dollars at stake, including excruciating pay-jumps at each interval, the 2019 WSOP Millionaire Maker final table is a nail-biter. Players are desperate to ladder up with life changing money at each bustout. However, not everyone is afraid to put their tournament life on the line, and there's no better example than this hand that everyone has been talking about.
Check out Nick Petrangelo's new video here: • HUGE Bluff in High Sta...
Subscribe for more wsop vlog, news, comedy, and hand breakdowns. Poker Hands is the show where Doug analyzes live poker hands from tv poker shows such as Poker After Dark, EPT (European Poker Tour), High Stakes Poker, the World Series of Poker (WSOP), the Aussie Millions, WPT (World Poker Tour) the Big One For One Drop, and the PCA (Pokerstars Carribean Adventure). He especially enjoys reviewing hands by popular high stakes pros like Viktor "Isildur" Blom, Fedor Holz, Dan Cates (Jungleman), Tom "Durrrr" Dwan, Phil Hellmuth, Phil Ivey, and Daniel Negreanu.
I for one am happy Maria is in the booth spouting awful strategy advice. Too many training resources need a little counter balance
Derked underrated comment
Derked - she said almost exactly the same thing Doug said..
@@michaelpennington6935
No?
@@michaelpennington6935 No, she said not to shove preflop and she said he shouldn't have called the all-in on in the flop. Literally the exact opposite of what Doug said. Did you even watch the video?
@@michaelpennington6935 not really
I’m a simple man, I see a new video from Vanessa, I click.
Too bad she retired, amirite?
@@ukaszpapuga5331 she doesn't swing that way, boss
lol
Did you come up with that line yourself? Or are you copying a super cringy line that has been used thousands of times?
russell d the second one! As I have now achieved a (very important) dream of mine to get the top comment on a vid, I thought to myself, “it’s a good thing thumbs up votes in comment sections on RUclips aren’t merit based and can be won with tired cliches 😀.”
I know you don’t particularly enjoy hand reviews Doug, but keep ‘em comin’
Doug I plugged this hand into the Maria / Tilly solver and it says it’s a fold pre. You never know if your opponent could have quads
"If you're looking for low rake, play a different game."
-Pokerstars
Or maybe play elsewhere ;-)
Its such a crying shame, that the hands down best poker youtuber doesn't enjoy the game anymore. We all really appriciate you uploading Doug, keep em coming.
Thanks Marcus, appreciate it
Doug "low energy" Polk was a sad surprise to see here. Make Poker Fun Again, Doug!
“If you’re looking for justice, play a different game.”
Great quote.
awesome quote and timeless
Bro I just broke my phone dropping it for you after that massive "if you're looking for justice play a different game."
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 Thug life
Wow, are you serious?
Great vid Doug!
Even though you don't really enjoy making hand history videos please keep in mind the following points about Poker hands:
1. This is how you got most of your subscribers.
2. You are better at these than any other type of content.
3. You are better at these than any other RUclipsrs.
Gold Fish 4. Gold fish taste like shit
Yeah I gotcha bud, gonna keep mixing some in
@@DougPolkPoker always mix, else get exploited with your face-up range
that's a poker joke
^ THAT'S a polker joke
We already know maria is waay too tight in these spots, so not weird to see her saying he played badly. i would've shoved pre, tho
Eduardo Seifert I would open shoved when checked to on the flop (if i didn’t shove pre).
Shes loose. Trust me. Her game is tight to compensate for her clam.
guys, we found the 9 year-old right here. shame on you, josh
Eduardo Seifert no he is almost certainly correct. I see no other reason she can still afford to be on to tour.
@@Stockhandle123 backing, sponsors, just like the rest of them
Great commentary from Maria “Always Fold Sets” Ho.
Seth Naidu gold🤣🤣🤣
she such a noob, still selling out that cleavage...sad
Justin Ward just because she was right in that instance doesn’t mean it’s the right play long term. I think that’s what we’re getting at.
Spot on Christopher! Never take a results-oriented approach when thinking about decisions in poker.
@@starcityoldy That infamous fold of set of tens... It was absolutely dreadful yet there were actually people out there saying it was reasonable hahaha can we say she's scared money?
I'm surprised Maria doesnt just say you should blind out as the chip leader and hope for something better than 6th place.
LOL if you'd made this comment earlier it'd 100% be the top comment on this video
Wearing those pants, I feel like justice was done
😂🤣
no shoes? get back to the hippie VW van
He’s a hippie. So what’s the deal.
"If you're looking for justice, play a different game." - I love that statement lol
This was one of the best poker hands, taking time out to actually go over stuff in equilab was a nice touch.
polker hands*
Maria "I fold sets" Ho thinks he made a mistake lmao. He got it in as a 75% fave Maria...
ICM for sure a mistake
@@josejuangomez9326 no
75% in this exact situation but generally his hand will perform way worse in this scenario... and he literally played the hand as poor as he possibly could with the shorter stacks in play. Ur clueless just looking at %
Tbf its probs icm mistake but idk. Defo prefer xb flop. But defo defo prefer shove pre
@@alaboulangerie It isn't an ICM mistake. DP even broke down how it makes sense to put it all in even with ICM considerations.
Last statement is the most true thing ever, Poker is not a game of justice.
Tournament poker, is not a game of justice.
Cash games = justice. Tournament poker = no justice coz the stack sizes. Gotta win dem flips.
Doug what do think about jamming the flop, to deny equity and avoid being jammed on ( due to heavy icm )?
"If you're looking for justice, play a different game""... absolutely love that last line because of how true it is
Doug thanks for the videos man. For real
np ^^
That’s the thing Maria doesn’t seem to be factoring in to her analysis is that after calling and betting flop Albertsons is no longer in second if he folds.
we need more maria ho in tournaments...I'm just gonna turn up the heat to 150 and win like 50% tournaments I enter...because when they fold 90% of their hands...there's no variance involved
Albertson's outfit makes me feel physically sick.
😂🤣
Doug. Doug. You have to make that a t-shirt "if you're looking for justice, play a different game"
Doug is the best poker analyst in the business. Thanks for doing this.
Jesus christ how did Maria manage to NOT say one single thing that was right?
pay her next botox injection appointment and she might discuss to you her thoughts on the hand and why she said what she did....
I love to see the Daniel Negreanu Masterclass getting advertised on Doug’s videos
Ikeuchi was the Chip-bully from start to finish at the Final Table. Opening or contesting so often, you had to know that half the time his holdings were suboptimal. Qui Nguyen did the same thing through the final 3 or 4 tables at the 2016 Main Event. You have to decide whether you're gonna fold your way to 3rd or 4th place, or make a stand and win the damn thing. I'm with you, Doug...I'd rather be applying than receiving the Test.
Ya, I remember at one point Gordon Vayo (who eventually finished second to Qui Nguyen) folded 77 in the CO when it was folded around to him. Super nit.
@@synchronium24 I know it must be scary, but your opponents are scared, too. Play Nitty early, and mid-tournament, but the players making their way through the final 4-5 tables are usually the bold ones. Phil Helmuth is a Nit mostly, and he's ready to ship it on AA, KK, and AK-suited.
@@EricA-xd9fn "Phil Helmuth is a Nit mostly, and he's ready to ship it on AA, KK, and AK-suited."
I LOLed!
Doug, it would be interesting to see you break down some scenes from a couple movies like Rounders (1998) and Lucky You (2007) the way you do your "poker hands" videos. Not as far as how they play their hands necessarily, but more what's real and what's not about the world of poker.
I remember Doug did do a breakdown of a couple of rounders hands a couple of years ago
"If you're looking for justice, play another game"
Lol, great quote!
"if you're looking for justice play a different game." +1
Up next
Jean-Robert Bellande - I Am High Stakes Poker ❤️
I haven't watched that yet. Is it a good watch? I'm not sure watching a 40 minute story of a guy who went all in for half a million dollars with 53s.
This is one of my favourite poker hands video, I love the time and depth you went to on this one spot. Your sane refutation of the commentators' analysis is valuable and appreciated.
Yes!!! More content and it's a polker hand thank you man good to see you back on the tube.
"if you're looking foe justice, play a different game" - Solid Gold!
"Don't be afraid" - Best poker advice I heard for a while, if he wasn't afraid to Jam pre he'd take this hand down and be laughing.
“If you are looking for justice, play a different game” - Doug Sticking the Knife Polk
Busted last night with KK against QQ that hit a Q on the river - decided to quit poker (for this week..).
Watched this video - I'm born again! (thanks to Doug's powerful final sentence)
you must not play much
Disagree with Doug here - as IP player from BU - Once you 4bet jam pre, it makes your 3bet call range super weak here.
Basically, you open tight, then if you shove JJ+ AK - it defines your 3b call range easily and the CL from BB will put a lot of pressure on you.
Since our stack off range here is maybe TT+ AQs I guess - we can’t shove anything pre.
Flop - bet call and check should be similar.
Doug hope you do more WSOP videos, love your stuff and have sorely missed the regular content.
Oh man Doug 2 vids in a week. You are spoiling us!
"If you're looking for justice, play a different game." - Great line.
If you're playing stakes high enough to where one turn of a card can impact the rest of your life you're playing way too high.
Play with confidence
Play without shame
If You're looking for justice
Play another game.
#CardSharks
What's with the idiotic commentary from Maria Ho? She thinks Albertson made a mistake by calling?
EDIT : I guess it's not clear if she's referring to the pre.or post-flop call. The preflop call was bad, the post-flop call is correct.
This is the same Maria that folded top set on the flop.
by flatting preflop, which was a terrible mistake
@@95clemi I guess I should say it's not clear which call she is referring to.
She liked the pf call so it can't be that one lll
@@kaberle71 ah well in that case she's way wrong
I was confused about Maria's advice to just call preflop, and that you can't bet-call a jam post-flop. Thanks for clearing it up, Doug!
Great analysis Doug. Good to have you back on RUclips.
Waiting for that river card was a rush I’ve never experienced in a poker video 😌
Great quote. “If you’re looking for justice, play a different game.”
The line at the end is from Game of Thrones. “If you’re looking for justice you’ve come to the wrong place”. Tyrion Lannister says it to Oberyn about Kings Landing.
How does he not go all in pre?
He can only flat as his AK is suited so has less blocker potential and can only hit one kind of flush as opposed to two.
With that amount of BBs, you absolutely must jam, in this short-handed, short-stacked situation
@@jimmy87587 I forgot about the double flush draw. Good call pal
@@pabuttle no sweat - I'm a beast at microstakes
I agree with blackbird, but I would also add that his opponent's range contains a lot of hands that block at least one of his quads draws.
If Alec Torelli had a favorite battery, would it be double A?
I do think that Ikeuchi used the ICM considerations perfectly here. Obviously I have no idea what he was actually thinking, but every single move he made asked the question "wouldn't you like to just fold and not lose $400,000?" Albertson's play not really so bad, but did lead inexorably lead him toward having to call off against the chip leader. This is directly responsible for ending up busting out with high equity. In fact, he was in just about the best situation possible when he called off and it was still just a 74% win chance. I think checking or even jamming the flop might have been better. Either way you don't end up with no fold equity against the chip leader, and you are far from dead even in the worst possible situation. It is ok to check the flop and fold to a bet on the turn if the club doesn't come. I would argue that the entire reason you would flat AKs preflop is to give you that option later.
Albertson should have worn his lucky socks. The lucky pants just weren’t enough 😂
I missed that "What's up, guys? Doug Polk here." )) Keep doing those videos, man! So bad that we can't watch your play anymore, at least there are some good analysis from you.
It blew my mind Maria said he should flat....I mean seriously? This is a girl who folded a set in a spot she should have never folded a set in the WSOPE main event and went on to get sixth so, I think she’s obviously a good player but you’ve got 33-35 bbs vs the one guy who can three bet fold against you, I’m jamming. Unfortunately it’s a spot the player had never been and so decided to play cautiously but man I saw this on the replay and knew the second he flatted it was going to be a ducking travesty.
6th place payout was almost 300k though, that's more then three years of salary for me. Rich people problems
First off, great video, and thanks for the content.
However, I do have a question about preflop.
Doug and/or other poker experts, help me out for a second:
The way I see it Albertson has 54,375,000 out of 220,475,000 chips in total, or $797,643.59 in ICM dollars
Let's go with Doug's assumptions that jamming pre results in
70% folds, making stacks:
73,550,000
67,875,000 or $861,653.42 in ICM dollars
36,075,000
17,550,000
12,900,000
12,525,000
14% calls where you win, making stacks:
111,150,000 or $1,031,652.99 in ICM dollars
36,075,000
30,275,000
17,550,000
12,900,000
12,525,000
16% calls you lose, making stacks:
$266,771 (6th place)
Decision to jam:
(.7 * $861,653.42) + (.14 * $1,031,652.99) + (.16 * $266,771) = $790,272.17
Decision to just fold pre facing 3bet (LOL), making stacks:
90,350,000
51,075,000 or $782,056.00 in ICM dollars
36,075,000
17,550,000
12,900,000
12,525,000
Decision to flat call:
54% in equity (at least) against a strong 3bet range that you should overrealize due to strong post flop playability in position. For argument's sake let's just take 54% of the 24,600,000 in the pot for Albertson = 56,560,000
This makes the stacks
84,865,000
56,560,000 or $809,419.36 in ICM dollars
36,075,000
17,550,000
12,900,000
12,525,000
It looks like: EV fold ($782,056.00) < EV jam ($790,272.17) < EV call ($809,419.36)
This seems counter intuitive, Any thoughts?
Also worth noting, I forgot to mention that the bet/jam line seems to has a worse EV than choosing not to open AKs preflop, as his EV before the hand was $797,643.59 and suddenly becomes $790,272.17
Doug I don't question you not enjoying the game anymore but why do you think that happened? In pro blackjack circles when we were into it we called it the "fever". I lost my fever for blackjack (not to mention the rules changes) years ago. I don't know why but I just stopped playing after playing intensely for over a decade. Any thoughts about it? Was it the huge investment of time and consequent loss of quality of life? Was it the fact that you found no more mountains to climb? Or for no apparent reason you just suddenly discovered you lost the fever? BTW I think the vids are amazing keep them coming. I live in Vegas and I am trying to climb the poker learning curve. Your stuff is a big help.
I learn a LOT from these videos. Thank you Doug. Best of luck for the rest of the WSOP.
She’s trolling us right? “I think he made a mistake with that call?” I mean, he only has 73% equity in the hand at this point....
Summarizing: do the opposite of what the girl is saying.
A solid life philosophy in general 😉🤣
Doug, would you say that everything you do at the poker table conveys information?
I'd say that anything you do in a hand does. And some things you do not being in hands.
When I see an asian player on my table I immediatelly expect a higher 3bet range. I also like the 4bet jam a lot more than the call, but I also like a preflop limp on the button quite a lot in this icm spot. I think raise calling is the worst option. I also like the check on the flop much more than the bet.
Welcome back Sir, these have been terrific!
Chip bb vs second stack in btn : chip can be suuuuper loose to apply ICM pressure, shove and put that ICM pressure back on him ! Once btn would 4bet shove, bb would have a hard time with hands as strong as JJ, QQ or AK (because of ICM he doesn't wanna risk either as chip) you block the two hands that do annoy you (AA KK, and still got 30 against one)
Mandatory 4bet shove and if you run into AA GG that was not your day... The only good scenario when flating is if the hand turns into a big postflop setup or if you hit an A vs AQ (not in his 3bet range imo) while there are many good scenarios when 4bet shoving
oddly enough, the more you're afraid, the more likely it's going to happen.
now what I think the same, but why is that? It makes no sense rationally
when Maria Ho says it's a mistake, you probably made the right call
The poker gods punished Albertson for taking that much time and still calling. If he insta-calls he wins the hand. The poker gods don't like a wishy-washy nit.
correct. this is well known in the community. there's no justice in poker, but there is karma.
No one gonna talk about Albertson not wearing shoes
I'm not a professional at the game; I'm a very small winning player over about 10 years (one "big" for me tournament score is the difference between break even and profit), but this hand highlights something I tell people all the time when discussing hands. To put it simply, if you end up in a difficult spot in a hand, odds are you made a mistake earlier in the hand.
In this spot post-flop both players played it about perfect. We call it a bad beat and say that Ikeuchi got lucky, and he did. But Albertson shouldn't have made it to the point in the hand where he was put to a difficult spot.
I'm not saying if I were in his position I would have jammed pre-flop. Really, given how much money that is to my current level of living, I probably would have folded to the 3-bet preflop, or if I'd been 3-bet a few times and folded, just not opened the hand. You have to figure you can almost guarantee folding your way to 4th, which is another 200k. You can probably fold your way to 4th and have a good chance of getting 3rd, which 360k more than you get now. But the "correct" play is clearly to jam pre.
If you’re looking for justice, play another game. -Doug Polk
As played preflop, I think Albertson should have shoved flop. He should have thought ahead as to what he would do facing a jam and if his answer was to call then he should just jam himself. His hand has amazing equity vs pretty much every made hand in Ikeuchis range and forces draws and other missed hands to fold out their equity.
“If you’re looking for justice, play a different game.” Haha yup!
Love daniels ads on polks videos lmao loosey goosey advertisers
Right? Almost every Doug Polk video I watch has Master Class ads. I'm conflicted because I want to let the ad play (supports Doug), but I don't want to support Daniel.
@@CyberInferno You don't support Daniel by watching his ads. Besides, he no longer works for PokerStars.
@@Trias805 Right! Doug gets the money for watched ads, guess who ends up paying for them :P
Triplemania master class ya dipshit.
Master class pays dan a lump sump to film then her gets profits off selling. Soooo
I want to try playing 7 card stud at my poker night. I have 2 300 chip sets. 200 white 100 black 100 green 100 red and 100 blue. What would be the antes and starting stacks if i was trying to have like a 5-8 person game.
That 10 hurt my soul. Chalk this up to reason #540 that I couldn't be a professional poker player.
Lemme get this straight....
In tournaments:
Beware raising bigger stacks that can bust you,
And on’t put yourself in bad spots.
Brand new news! Thanks!
😂
Nice video, Doug. In my opinion Albertson clearly has to shove preflop in stead of minraising and I am a little surprised you didn't touch on this. Ikeuchi can shove extremely wide vs a minraise and Albertson can probably only call aces and kings. His AKs would be a crystal clear fold vs a shove preflop from Ikeuchi, so by shoving himself he avoids Ikeuchi shoving all sorts of pairs, suited broadways etc and forcing him off his equity. Nice to see you making strategy vids again, keep them coming - cheers.
Isn't going all in on the flop also an option for Albertson after being checked to? Twice pot but you're never going to be dominated and it solves the problem of being jammed on and having to call off.
I don't like flatting pre, but I HATE betting anything less than ALL IN on the flop. Terrible.
Fr wtf is he waiting for shuda been in pre too little too late
I think given the short stacks and the BB you're betting into, AKs is a easy fold pre there.
What do you think of party poker’s newest policy of banning hand histories and HUD?
That was the best vlog ending of all time!
Fearless Leader will always give the best hand analysis.
good analysis, but did you consider to use icimizer or similar tool to calculate $ev in these preflop spots. Equilab just give you percentages, but icimizer will give you exact $ value of your play, and I think many people would find it more intersting. Cheers
check flop on button, call turn on button, go all in river on button
or go all in pre
Like always your analysis is perfect, especially on why he has to shove all in
Mr. Polk,
No kidding thanks man!
Please keep them coming.
Dead serious!
I think these spots are way more complicated than most people realize. You have to ask what people are maximizing - are they maximizing their earnings? Or, maybe they're maximizing their chances of winning the tournament? These are different and will lead to different strategies.
I think these tools also assume that people value $2 2x as much as $1, but that isn't always true either.
Imagine - you are given a choice between a 100% chance of a million dollars, or a 25% chance at 5 million. The latter has more EV but most people would take the former, to minimize risk.
This is a very interesting situation all the way around.
damn it Doug, stop encouraging me to drive to casino again... but I really like the video
Wow brilliant hand, thanks Doug 👍😳
Beginner looking for some help...
Did I overplay my hand or did I get a bad beat?
I was dealt 67dd and I called a min raise from the big blind. Flop comes 67J rainbow. I check, he bets, I raise , he reraises, I shove, he calls. He has QQ. Board runs out J-2 and I get beat by a stronger two pair. Should I play bottom two pair after the flop more conservatively or did I play it right and just got a shitty turn card ?
If this was a game of justice, Phil Helmuth would win every time obv
Clearly
Best line ever : ,, If you are looking for justice .. , play a different game ,, omg legendary hahahah :)
A cold four bet all in would have saved him so trouble there like you said 🤷🏽♂️
wouldn't have been a cold 4-bet but yes a jam would've made life easy
Rivers like that are why I keep spiritual healers on speed dial. At least two of them. After all, more reiki is better.
Hey Doug what do you think of Maria Ho’s commentary on the hand?
DOUG, could we get a breakdown of the real $ difference between the preflop shove scenario vs the all-in call? Wouldn't that tell us the actual amount of money that this guy pissed away by being a chump preflop?
Wow man that ending quote was the best!
thankful AF for the content, bruvski. nice to see you back in the streets.