@@TheBroLoungeI'd love to see everybody's analysis without seeing the hole cards... You almost HAVE to put Vayo on 33 to be behind. I could see a A-5s... or 33 only... Vayo could have easily been trying to push Josephy off a weaker hand, Vayo could have hit 2 pair, he could have had diamonds with a 5 or diamonds with a pair on a bluff... its a tough call, but also a tough fold... I know everybody's analysis would have been WAYYYYYY different if Vayo was bluffing with equity.
Doug I love this series, you are very good at what you do. I can't wait to see what the future holds for you. I just have one suggestion, have you ever considered calling this series "Poke Her Hands?" Thank you.
Josephy made himself look like such an ass when he had his wife bring him the cap and dark glasses, and suddenly tried to start intimidating Qui ... but it backfired spectacularly. Should have put his ego to one side and carried on doing what he'd been doing throughout the tourney. Also, I was glad to see him get beat just because he'd behaved so unprofessionally towards Kassouf earlier - trying to get all the other players to gang up on him; even telling one of the other guys: "we're all on the same team here!" That, buddy, is called collusion...
He has always been a douchebag since the early days on PokerStars. I used to battle him and all his horses in the tournaments. Sometimes he would own a piece of half the field in the bigger buy in tournaments. Low key cheating.
@Cal L I'm not a Kassouf fan but if you know the names Prahlad Freeman, Curtis Rystadt or Justin FUCKING Schwarz you'll know that Kassouf isn't the worst
@stacithompson is out of their mind. What poker world are they living in? Not even Tony G could be considered worse. Kassouf’s obnoxiousness was well beyond the Richter Scale. Far worse than any of the others mentioned as he was relentless and his mouthing off went on, and on for days.
Phil Hellmuth, although being the most entertaining, is the most obniouxios... Phil's #1 contribution to the game of poker is and WAS (it was worse in the later 2000's) is making it almost acceptable to belittle players at the table... You'd see nerdy ass pricks confidently talking shit about a bad player's play... or bitching about every aspect of why they lost a pot... They'd get coolered and flip out like a baby... In no other game in history was it as bad as poker... low stakes were worse than larger stakes.
What a heartbreaker that hand was. I was there that night as one of those railing Cliff Josephy, part of “Team Bax” among the on-stage audience standing in the background at the Penn & Teller theater. With everything on the line as it were I *think* I *may* have found the strength to fold to that all-in and wait for a better spot. The idea of a 5 6, in that situation, was just too big a possibility, and sets don’t always win. Thanks for the great analysis Doug.
Very, very tough spot on that turn after he gets reraised. It's three-handed, any set should be nuts, but when he gets reraised given the way hand was played, and especially when the reraiser is player as tight as Gordon Vayo was at that final table, he actually can't beat literally any valuebet. He could only hope Vayo has something like Ad6d, or even Ad5d, and he could win if he hits his full house on the river. I won't lie and pretend I'm James Obst, I'd probably never fold there.
Its very unlikely a player like Vayo would call the flop out of position with a backdoor draw to be honest. Against almost any other player i would call no matter what. but i think i would fold this spot. - James Obst
thanks again for the commentary, the breakdown, how you put your opponent now on actual hands, after starting with a range, why they pretty much HAVE to have what you think they have... and how you can make an argument for the hero fold.. Josephy had enough chips to get back in the game. 30+ BB ( total bet per round ).. with what he had left.. he could have gotten right back in it. instead... boom... great play by play, loved Antonio calling the flop, and how he seems to foretell whats going on as well..
It's also curious if the bet by Josephy is good in the first place? He can't really be bluffing here now can he? Maybe a hand like 45 or 55 or maybe 66 can be bluffing? What are you trying to get Vayo to fold, a KJ or KQ type hand? This whole hand has such a weird dynamic with such strong and defined ranges all around.
I know it's nearly impossible to fold a set but if we really put deep thought into how this hand played out, what is Vayo check, shoving all in on the turn vs 2 opponents who have shown a lot of strength (especially from Josephy) when Vayo has been playing so nitty on this final table. Josephy needs to find a fold here but only great players can find a fold here...
With nearly $3.5-million in lifetime tournament earnings, which doesn’t include his cash winnings, Josephy is currently ranked 169th on the all -time money list. That’s out of over 650,000 individuals listed on the Hendon Mob website. Cliff IS a great poker player, even if YOU happen to rank higher, which we all can be pretty confident, you do not. Laughable!
To me, with hindsight, it really looks like a clean fold. Doug nailed it: Pocket deuces is really the very bottom end of the betting range on the turn. So, Vayo`s check-raise looks insanely strong, especially on this ultra-dry board, after the preflop and flop action. Actually, already the overcall on the flop signals good top pair or better; or maaaybe 54s. - The only question to me is whether Vayo ever holds KQ here. And, one even has to consider that Vayo shipped with Nguyen still in the hand.
@@gesus.christ99 Vayo called from the SB bet and 3-bet, both massively narrowing down his range: Good high cards (esp KQ), pairs, some Axs. There are no realistic 2-pairs out, and the only somewhat likely draw that Vayo might actually hold, A5s, makes the 2nd nut straight. On an otherwise extremely dry board. So: He has no (obvious) bluffs, and KQ would be very happy to call down;.especially given the previous action. Now, you would need to come up with a range for Vayo, as part of his preflop variety, that could justify a call from Josephy : Once in a very blue moon, TT/99, without much rhyme and reason, played over-aggressively?! Josephy, otoh, can actually have all 65s, and A5s, with backdoors, plus also 33, sitting on the BU: - There is no need for him to go broke with "just" 22.
Just found your channel Doug! Keep up the good work mate. I would say you may have started something here that we will see a lot more from pro's in the future. This channel will be massive if you keep up this content. Extremely informative and at times very funny, even for a seasoned player like myself. You can tell you know your stuff and its good to finally have someone who has played at the highest level and succeeded give there unbiased opinion. Well played
Hey Doug. Recent subscriber, really liking the quality of your content. Curious, when you're at the table in similar situations to these hands you analze, what extent of this analysis you're providing would you say you're able to get through "in the moment." Is 100% of what you discuss in these analyses what you're able to figure out in the actual hand, or do you often find in retrospect there's quite a bit to take notice of that in the moment you were perhaps a bit blind to? Also, as someone that for now sticks to grinding the $1/$2 tables online, do you have any general advice, as putting people on hands and expecting such rational play like you can from most the pros you analyze isn't as sure of a thing where I am? Thanks!
Ok, great GTO analysis and all, but you failed to mention one key element. The most important piece of info to get this hand right (from Josephy's perspective): Vayo was playing Rock Solid Poker. There's no way in hell he was shoving light there, he either has you crushed (33>22) or semi-crushed (A5s, 65s) & you got 10 outs for the beat. And considering he was playing so tight, it is very unlikely he gets to the Turn with A5s or 65s, he might´ve called pre because of pot odds. But he most definitely wouldn't ve called with the Gutshot OOP, not the way he was folding/playing hands. In a standard scenario it's a pretty tough Hero Fold, vs Mr. Vayo Rock Solid Image, it was a Crying/No Way I Am Good Fold. My 2 cents.
I agree with everything. Vayo should be folding pre, because of how face-up this plays when he does flop a set being the main point of this video I think. As others have said, you're only getting better at making these videos. Keep 'em coming...
22 is a correct fold more often than most people think preflop in NL, the reverse implied odds are the highest among all PP, the reverse implied odds might even be worse than a hand like 78s. And on boards like this a set of dueces is like the best bluff catching hand. It's very standard to check call this hand to the river.
This is a small piece of the puzzle, but another thing interesting about this hand is that Cliff has the 2 of diamonds AND Vayo has the 3 of diamonds, so each of them can remove prime bluff and semibluff candidates from each others range. Cliff knows Vayo cant have A2 of diamonds, and in a tight range spot like this where every combo counts, that could in theory make it a small percentage easier to fold, if that's the route you're thinking of going. Crazy hand either way!
Hey Doug, love your channel keep it up. Can you make video about the hand from WSOP where Mark Newhouse clash with Morgenstern 22vAJs on 2AA3x .. i think this crazy of a hand with many mistakes made(imo) should make for a great video! Thx and bigups
Doug, if you were in Vayo spot you said you lean towards calling, but then what would you do on the river? Checking and risking getting checked behind and losing value? The shove is the only good option in my opinion.
Question for Doug/anyone else interested: If you were in Vayo's shoes, and you flat-called the turn, how would you play the river? And would this vary, depending on what the river is?
Given that the straight came in, bottom set is probably only a bluff catcher, so I guess, you could argue for a fold. But that being said, Vayo just got extremely lucky to hit this perfect situation at a critical point of time. In a 3-handed game the chance for a player to get involved in a set over set situation on the flop (good or bad) is somewhere around 1: 10.000.
Doug, i subscribe very very rarely (i mean you are only the second channel i subscribe), but i really enjoy what you do here on this channel, keep going, and i hope to see you live on european live tournament one day :D
Were these WSOP videos taken down for a while? I’ve been looking for them. Because I LOVE them. Edit: still coming back a year later. All loosey goosey eating a sandwich. 🥪 🦢
I just can't think of a other hand that a tight player like Vayo could have. With the folds he was making at the final table I don't think he is ever calling with fives on the flop oop.
As tight as vayo been playing how can you call? Obvious vayo doesn't do this allin with anything less than 2 pair imo he only has sets in his range. Aces or kings would be 4-5 bet preflop
so basically Vayo's strategy was to play only sets, and hope the opponent has good bluff hand and stacks of to him or has a lower set? good strat, I have to try it sometimes...with my low level of play this could be the thing that makes me winning player at penny stakes...also how about check calling and check calling river jam..letting him bluff with some hands, keeping the king in your range makes him value bet all his sets(+there's not a lot of river where Josephy is like OMG that hit him I rather check it back with 22), whereas when you raise you kick out your kings you don't have any bluffs (you have to be really high level to choose to bluff here with 55, maybe doug would do it, but 1) I don't think Vayo ever calls the flop with 55 and bluffing here is even less likely) and he might fold 22 and of course all his bluffs...
where did you get that from this video? HE plays a it tight, but no, you can't wait for a 1 in 100 hands (that your opponents can't get off of), and hope to go anywhere in a tourney. Of course Vayo was playing a wider range than this. But based on his heads up play, it seems like he might be a little too tight and Qui was able to capitalize on that big time heads up.
Why would vayo call the flop with 44-66? Wouldn't he just be blocking air from Josephy's range and likely to get knocked off his hand regardless being oop vs 2 players? you mentioned him having those hands a lot on the turn so I wish you spoke a bit more about it on the flop, surely it's not solely for the purpose of having weak hands that turned straight draws in your range to bluff with when you do have a set?
You said something about the implied odds being different due to the fact that they were all deep and this was the final table. How do implied odds change? Wouldn't they be the same regardless of stacks, ect? You either have good odds or bad ones right? Anyway thanks for the channel -- your analysis is very good and more importantly entertaining (not mired down in game theory, ect).
At about 2:58 you're talking about Josephy and you say 'pocket 2s are a hand you want to open on the button,especially when you're deep [this i get]" then --"your implied odds [something something] go up drastically'. So I think the first statement doesn't have anything to do with the second, that's where I got confused. Is the idea that your implied odds are so high because of the chance of hitting a set? And do implied odds take into account your opponent's ranges (like here where joesphy got screwed because of what must have seemed like great luck). Thanks
The two statements about having deep stacks and having higher implied odds are indeed connected. Implied odds take into consideration the amount of money you can win when you hit the hand you are hoping for in relation to the investment you have to make in order to see if you can hit your hand. Bigger stacks mean you can win more chips when flopping a set and thus your investment is more profitable. The last part about getting screwed is called negative implied odds, which means thinking about how likely it is that you hit the hand you want to hit and still lose to an even better hand. In that sense, 22 often has a decent amount of reverse implied odds because if you and an opponent both hit a set, yours is always the worst one. However, in this particular hand, with only 3 players at the table, the chance of an opponent also having a pocket pair is really low, so reverse implied odds are pretty irrelevant when thinking about opening this hand on the button.
Imagine Josephy had half as many chips as Vayo. The implied odds for Vayo when he hits his set over set are half. He gets less return on the initial preflop bet when he makes a hand.
tehtsb thanks a lot, that's what I was wondering. And why the fuck would this be a troll? Is it THAT obvious? Even Doug was talking about pot odds when I asked about implied odds.Not all of us play 'GTO'...sometimes you just read opponents and beat them (ok that sounds like a dick thing to say but I was called a troll)
Hey coach, dont lie to me. You hate to fold hands. Btw I am in UpSwing Poker and even the inicial material is kind of simple, i am enjoying it! You are a great teacher. Hug Doug
Ok not to hate on Vayo too much he can obviously play. I remember watching a FT he was at in an Earlier WSOp from like 2012-2014 where he was the most aggro player at the table so maybe the spot got to him?
Murray Herts yea if he's a decent player it's a no brainer fold, absolutely nothing he can have but a set. Josephy is the hugest turd in the history of poker so I'm super glad his dumbass called then act like bottom set is the second nuts and impossible to fold. Lol you stupid turd fuck.
hey doug great video, ever think of changing your "polker news series" to "poker news" considering it's about poker and poker is so close to polk. be a great name
Tough spot, if he calls he might let some hands realize equity, not get value from a K hero call/btm set and maybe get bluffed on an A or a 5 river, shoving hes almost screaming he has a set, Id probably just shove there aswell but I dont think there's a clear best play. His tought process there was probably " I have a set I cant fold 3 connected cards on the board all in" lol
The problem for Vayo is, he is out of position. If he want to slowplay, he need to check the river, and then Josephy can just check behind. So the only way to make sure, that stacks are going in, is to go for the check-raise on the turn. I guess, he could also donkbet the river, but that look almost stronger and is even more likely to induce a fold.
Seems to me Vayo would want to shove the turn since this is a tournament situation and the pot is soooo big already. An A or 5 would be tragic and there will be 90 mill in there after he calls. Having a superior stack here is worth more than the range play of calling IMO.
i agree u can argue a fold is attainable but u never discussed the fact that vayo is a super-nit relative to the other players at this final table (not just 3 handed, the whole time). u can hear josephy on the rail saying "last night he folded that hand in sb but tonight he flatted" which verifies that cliff KNOWS vayo is super nitty. given this tight image, the turn play by vayo is either a bluff or better than 22. bluffs can be ruled out, the guy never bluffs. so when u consider this, i think the fold is more reasonable.
Its the fact he plays against probably the most tight player on the final table it is probably a fold... But even when vayo has a straight you still have a 23% of winning the hand if the board pairs. Considering its Vayo he is playing against he is almost never going to call the flop with A4, A5 or 56, because hes a very tight player. So what else could he have? You cant really put him on AK given the preflop action. Obviously its easier to talk when you see the cards, but i honestly think this is worth a fold.
I agree. It is a completely sick spot, because there are only 6 combos of sets, which beat you. But nothing else really makes sense for him to have and play this way. So if I face that check-raise, I am for sure looking for a bucket. However I would probably call it, because you can never know 100%, that your opponent is unable to have something else than just a set. Also if he fold, he leave himself with a crippled stack and almost no chance to win the tournament. Which is way more important than maintaining a small chance of finishing in second place. After all people remember the winner. They dont remember, who came second. At least he went out like a man, and noone will ever blame a poker player for going broke with a set over set situation. It is the definition of a cooler, because its just so unlikely to happen. And even more so when you are playing shorthanded.
Doug how often do see two queen of clubs on the flop, like whats the %. :D Also wanted to add that it was obvious Vayo had 33's I knew it right when I saw the hole card images. Lastly can I have $5.
When hoping to hit a set… most definitely. In hindsight, what he should have done is shove his entire stack. Both of his other opponents would have folded like cheap Walmart lawn chairs.
Vayo is such a tight tight player. This is the type of hand you look back on and realise that it was so clear that the guy had a set. It wasn't necessary to play for all the cheese. Playing for $8million. Is here ever bluffing? Clear fold
Analysing it he's only repping a slow played AA or 33. And so in hindsight it's an easy fold. However, when you have a set of deuces it's too hard to fold in the moment.
I would put Vayo on the extremely unlikely, but weirdly really slow played Aces before I ever put AJs in his range. The way this guy plays its always a set of 3s, its just one of them spots you're going broke in 99% of the time.
My sister's ex boyfriend used to play poker with us, and for some reason, time after time, he would flop a set at the same time I would flop a higher set. I took him out of tournements multiple times because of this. Even when I didn't try to hide it well (like when I wanted to get rid of people who might draw for a flush), He never wanted to believe me.
Doug why it can be slightly exploitable to fold set of 22 He can afford to fold 50% of his range ( Vayo ships 75 mil to win 74,5) and with possible str8s i think it can be mathematicaly corect fold.
I'm not into live reads too much but the jo guy was giving off multiple tells of a big hand. When people stare at you after betting they almost always have a big hand not to mention his heavy breathing I'm jamming turn with a set of threes every time. I would have a tiny tiny fear of pocket fours but I don't see him calling flop with 4s. This is a player dependent.
Hey Doug I had this wacky idea of calling this series ''Polker hands'' instead of Poker hands because your last name happens to be POLK and that is incredibly similar to POKER :-O Kappa Nice vid btw :-)
During your post flop analysis, you mention a lot of hands that you would continue through the flop with, including several off suited high card combos (K/J,Q/10, etc). Now I know that Nguyen plays into this flop with off suited high cards but you already touched on that being an iffy move because of how likely it is that he can get outclassed by a better pocket(Q/10, A/K, etc). I mean I might be reading too much into this, and I am an amateur player so I definitely defer to your judgement regarding this, hence why Im posting the comment in the first place. But aren't you contradicting yourself a bit by saying preflop that A/J off is a weak pocket, and then coming back and saying several other off suited high card combos have a lot of play-ability post flop? Now granted Nguyen isn't a traditional poker player in the way he enters a lot of hands, and plays his flops, (kinda Tom Dwan-ish from my perspective), and yes the flop drops a cowboy, but that still puts a lot of the off suited hands you mentioned in an odd place (Q/10 and such) doesn't it? I know I must be missing something, but I cant see what it is, any help here is appreciated. Cheers on the videos, I've learned a lot watching them.
Josephy is such an overrated player. This could of shown him to be deserving but proved he was just a luckbox in making the final table. Gives me so much confidence when average players build a career in poker
So, Doug. You know how your name is Doug Polk? Well I'm thinking "Polk" is similar phonetically to the "Pok" in "poker". Here's a novel idea, call these videos "Polker Hands"
Josephy is not even at the top of his range here. He can easily have A5 and 56. So by folding 22 he still leaves himself with some hands that continue. This makes a fold seem even more reasonable.
Vayo the new chip leader who gave away the title....3.5 million and the glory....literally the first chip leader who tried to fold his way to a title. Hard to get set over set headsup eh Gordon?
Doug, imagine vayo was bluffing and josephy decides to lay his set down. You would be like: "He should never fold a set there, just way too strong!" I might be wrong though ;) Love your analysis over all, keep up the great work!
Vayo is NEVER shoving the turn on a draw with his tournament on the line! He isn't a risk taker. No balls! He wants to charge the backdoor flush draw. 22s was a clear fold here, what can a set of 22s beat here. Obvious he got 33s or 44s
Of course is obvious when u see the hand...the ones who r saying it s an easy fold are bunch of no lifers who watch youtube...it s 3 handed with a set over set...how often do u flop a set în that spot? Of course it makes sense when u see the hands...get a job man...cause i know for sure U R not a good poker player,u wouldn t have posted comments on a video,u would be making money ...so...GET A JOB...
@@serbanaurelian4151 i have to dissapoint you, but this is clear fold considering flop overcall and check shove range of Vayo...no bluffs in range, just pure value and 22 is bluff catcher in this spot. Im speaking from the point of man who played more than 30k mtts in past 9 years and make more than 500k in profits, and i do comment videos and answer to dumb comments like yours ;) cheers, and find job like you said.
vayo has only 33 there or maybe some a5s with backdoor flush draw on the flop.nothing else.if u r playing ur regular games u just have a set with 22 and get it in not being happy about it, but the guy is super nit he only has 33 or a5 and u r playing the wsop main event final table. he just never has semi bluffs at this stage of the game for his tournament life.
I didn't realize they'd appear so small when I ordered them. I'll order some larger ones eventually. Here's the original image: i.imgur.com/Ak0aJIW.jpg
I like the name Poker Hands, because you discuss poker hands so its pretty clear what the video will be about. Well done.
Because your name is Polk, and that sounds like poker, ever considered calling this series "Doug's Hands"?
May be Dog Poker hands?))
Bings Poker Hands.
why not Polker Hands...
J Parker no wayyyyyyyyyyyyyy
Brilliant hahaha . Today sir who wrote this 3 years ago
Folding is not GTO. But to exploit Mr. Nit Vayo there, you can find a hero fold. Would have been great.
Even GTOwise I think it's kind of close :o
Marvin Nash also consider ICM
Such an easy and correct fold. What in Gordon’s range do we beat other than total air which he will
Never have?
@@TheBroLounge Yes its easy when you see his hands and sit in front of your pc 🙂
@@TheBroLoungeI'd love to see everybody's analysis without seeing the hole cards... You almost HAVE to put Vayo on 33 to be behind. I could see a A-5s... or 33 only... Vayo could have easily been trying to push Josephy off a weaker hand, Vayo could have hit 2 pair, he could have had diamonds with a 5 or diamonds with a pair on a bluff... its a tough call, but also a tough fold... I know everybody's analysis would have been WAYYYYYY different if Vayo was bluffing with equity.
i dont know how i clicked this gaming video or who this guy is, but he should definitely change the name to polker hands
He beat you to it :P
James Obst would fold on that turn
obst folds pocket A's pre just to be sure.
lol W
Felipe Lumo
He did call Vornicu on day 4 back when he was chip leader with a flush against a full house in a spot where a fold was a good play.
Doug I love this series, you are very good at what you do. I can't wait to see what the future holds for you. I just have one suggestion, have you ever considered calling this series "Poke Her Hands?" Thank you.
Just want to say thanks for doing these. It's really great to have poker explained and analyzed at this level... I can't stop watching.
Josephy made himself look like such an ass when he had his wife bring him the cap and dark glasses, and suddenly tried to start intimidating Qui ... but it backfired spectacularly. Should have put his ego to one side and carried on doing what he'd been doing throughout the tourney. Also, I was glad to see him get beat just because he'd behaved so unprofessionally towards Kassouf earlier - trying to get all the other players to gang up on him; even telling one of the other guys: "we're all on the same team here!" That, buddy, is called collusion...
It's plain disrespectful. Could have just kept his mouth shut rather than try to score points
He has always been a douchebag since the early days on PokerStars. I used to battle him and all his horses in the tournaments. Sometimes he would own a piece of half the field in the bigger buy in tournaments. Low key cheating.
22:37 dude looks like Epstein no 🧢
fucking hate bax
I was so happy that Ngyuen won. This was one of the most unlikeable final tables ever.
@Cal L I'm not a Kassouf fan but if you know the names Prahlad Freeman, Curtis Rystadt or Justin FUCKING Schwarz you'll know that Kassouf isn't the worst
@stacithompson is out of their mind. What poker world are they living in? Not even Tony G could be considered worse. Kassouf’s obnoxiousness was well beyond the Richter Scale. Far worse than any of the others mentioned as he was relentless and his mouthing off went on, and on for days.
@@Crypto_Ricokassouf is f'n awesome! Everybody he plays against act like babies... He knows what he is doing, everybody else is off guard.
Phil Hellmuth, although being the most entertaining, is the most obniouxios... Phil's #1 contribution to the game of poker is and WAS (it was worse in the later 2000's) is making it almost acceptable to belittle players at the table... You'd see nerdy ass pricks confidently talking shit about a bad player's play... or bitching about every aspect of why they lost a pot... They'd get coolered and flip out like a baby... In no other game in history was it as bad as poker... low stakes were worse than larger stakes.
Shout out to the notification squad!
Shout out you guys but doug I had I to unsub to avoid spoilers as I just started watching the FT. I'll sub again u sexy bastard
King Jack Off just has such a ring to it.
What a heartbreaker that hand was. I was there that night as one of those railing Cliff Josephy, part of “Team Bax” among the on-stage audience standing in the background at the Penn & Teller theater. With everything on the line as it were I *think* I *may* have found the strength to fold to that all-in and wait for a better spot. The idea of a 5 6, in that situation, was just too big a possibility, and sets don’t always win. Thanks for the great analysis Doug.
Very, very tough spot on that turn after he gets reraised.
It's three-handed, any set should be nuts, but when he gets reraised given the way hand was played, and especially when the reraiser is player as tight as Gordon Vayo was at that final table, he actually can't beat literally any valuebet.
He could only hope Vayo has something like Ad6d, or even Ad5d, and he could win if he hits his full house on the river.
I won't lie and pretend I'm James Obst, I'd probably never fold there.
Its very unlikely a player like Vayo would call the flop out of position with a backdoor draw to be honest. Against almost any other player i would call no matter what. but i think i would fold this spot.
- James Obst
JonBenait06 3-bet preflop calling on the worse position? small chance a tight player will do that with k2 or k3
Doug, have you considered calling these Polker Hands?
ha. ha. ha. Never gets old.
He did on some of his Polker News videos. Auspicious name I guess.
Polker hands with Doug Polk at the World Series of Polker :-)
Strong analysis as always. I don't think Josephy gave himself enough time to evaluate.
Thanks Doug
thanks again for the commentary, the breakdown, how you put your opponent now on actual hands, after starting with a range, why they pretty much HAVE to have what you think they have... and how you can make an argument for the hero fold.. Josephy had enough chips to get back in the game. 30+ BB ( total bet per round ).. with what he had left.. he could have gotten right back in it. instead... boom... great play by play, loved Antonio calling the flop, and how he seems to foretell whats going on as well..
It's also curious if the bet by Josephy is good in the first place? He can't really be bluffing here now can he? Maybe a hand like 45 or 55 or maybe 66 can be bluffing? What are you trying to get Vayo to fold, a KJ or KQ type hand?
This whole hand has such a weird dynamic with such strong and defined ranges all around.
Love the series Doug, ever considered naming it Polker Hands as a funny pun instead of Poker? Since your surname is Polk and stuff. Just a suggestion
jesus christ...
dLuxHD
I know it's nearly impossible to fold a set but if we really put deep thought into how this hand played out, what is Vayo check, shoving all in on the turn vs 2 opponents who have shown a lot of strength (especially from Josephy) when Vayo has been playing so nitty on this final table. Josephy needs to find a fold here but only great players can find a fold here...
I don’t think 99.9 percent of people fold it, but considering how tight vayo had been playing I would definitely been scared
With nearly $3.5-million in lifetime tournament earnings, which doesn’t include his cash winnings, Josephy is currently ranked 169th on the all -time money list. That’s out of over 650,000 individuals listed on the Hendon Mob website. Cliff IS a great poker player, even if YOU happen to rank higher, which we all can be pretty confident, you do not. Laughable!
Josephy taking his time swiveling his head and those shades is absolute crack tilt
To me, with hindsight, it really looks like a clean fold. Doug nailed it: Pocket deuces is really the very bottom end of the betting range on the turn. So, Vayo`s check-raise looks insanely strong, especially on this ultra-dry board, after the preflop and flop action. Actually, already the overcall on the flop signals good top pair or better; or maaaybe 54s. - The only question to me is whether Vayo ever holds KQ here. And, one even has to consider that Vayo shipped with Nguyen still in the hand.
Is never a clean fold
Is always a call if the nuts doesn't change on the turn
Is sooo close with the 4
@@gesus.christ99 Vayo called from the SB bet and 3-bet, both massively narrowing down his range: Good high cards (esp KQ), pairs, some Axs.
There are no realistic 2-pairs out, and the only somewhat likely draw that Vayo might actually hold, A5s, makes the 2nd nut straight. On an otherwise extremely dry board.
So: He has no (obvious) bluffs, and KQ would be very happy to call down;.especially given the previous action.
Now, you would need to come up with a range for Vayo, as part of his preflop variety, that could justify a call from Josephy :
Once in a very blue moon, TT/99, without much rhyme and reason, played over-aggressively?!
Josephy, otoh, can actually have all 65s, and A5s, with backdoors, plus also 33, sitting on the BU: - There is no need for him to go broke with "just" 22.
How sick would Qui nguyen be if he had 44 or A5 and just ended the tourney right here? woulda saved us 8 hours of our lives...
yeah, but seeing Vayo's smug fucktard face get beat in by Qui was awesome!!
Doug, have you considered renaming this series to GTO Turkey Bathroom Bonanza?
Just found your channel Doug! Keep up the good work mate. I would say you may have started something here that we will see a lot more from pro's in the future. This channel will be massive if you keep up this content. Extremely informative and at times very funny, even for a seasoned player like myself. You can tell you know your stuff and its good to finally have someone who has played at the highest level and succeeded give there unbiased opinion. Well played
good prediction!
Hey Doug. Recent subscriber, really liking the quality of your content. Curious, when you're at the table in similar situations to these hands you analze, what extent of this analysis you're providing would you say you're able to get through "in the moment." Is 100% of what you discuss in these analyses what you're able to figure out in the actual hand, or do you often find in retrospect there's quite a bit to take notice of that in the moment you were perhaps a bit blind to?
Also, as someone that for now sticks to grinding the $1/$2 tables online, do you have any general advice, as putting people on hands and expecting such rational play like you can from most the pros you analyze isn't as sure of a thing where I am?
Thanks!
Ok, great GTO analysis and all, but you failed to mention one key element. The most important piece of info to get this hand right (from Josephy's perspective): Vayo was playing Rock Solid Poker. There's no way in hell he was shoving light there, he either has you crushed (33>22) or semi-crushed (A5s, 65s) & you got 10 outs for the beat. And considering he was playing so tight, it is very unlikely he gets to the Turn with A5s or 65s, he might´ve called pre because of pot odds. But he most definitely wouldn't ve called with the Gutshot OOP, not the way he was folding/playing hands.
In a standard scenario it's a pretty tough Hero Fold, vs Mr. Vayo Rock Solid Image, it was a Crying/No Way I Am Good Fold.
My 2 cents.
I agree with everything. Vayo should be folding pre, because of how face-up this plays when he does flop a set being the main point of this video I think. As others have said, you're only getting better at making these videos. Keep 'em coming...
22 is a correct fold more often than most people think preflop in NL, the reverse implied odds are the highest among all PP, the reverse implied odds might even be worse than a hand like 78s.
And on boards like this a set of dueces is like the best bluff catching hand. It's very standard to check call this hand to the river.
"I guess I lean towards maybe three-betting" ... lol, I couldn't see that coming, Doug Polk.
This is a small piece of the puzzle, but another thing interesting about this hand is that Cliff has the 2 of diamonds AND Vayo has the 3 of diamonds, so each of them can remove prime bluff and semibluff candidates from each others range. Cliff knows Vayo cant have A2 of diamonds, and in a tight range spot like this where every combo counts, that could in theory make it a small percentage easier to fold, if that's the route you're thinking of going. Crazy hand either way!
Hey Doug, love your channel keep it up. Can you make video about the hand from WSOP where Mark Newhouse clash with Morgenstern 22vAJs on 2AA3x .. i think this crazy of a hand with many mistakes made(imo) should make for a great video!
Thx and bigups
Doug, if you were in Vayo spot you said you lean towards calling, but then what would you do on the river? Checking and risking getting checked behind and losing value? The shove is the only good option in my opinion.
no he will never check back with his set. this hand is a clear value bet.
Question for Doug/anyone else interested:
If you were in Vayo's shoes, and you flat-called the turn, how would you play the river? And would this vary, depending on what the river is?
My first move would be to remove Vayo's shoes they probably won't fit.
Really awesome series Doug. Keep doing the great work! I hit the like button before even watching the video.
Vayo should fold on the turn, that way the strength of his hands is disguised. There's no way Josephy would have put him on the set.
Great video bro. These hand analysis videos are GTO.
keep up the great work.
Given that the straight came in, bottom set is probably only a bluff catcher, so I guess, you could argue for a fold. But that being said, Vayo just got extremely lucky to hit this perfect situation at a critical point of time. In a 3-handed game the chance for a player to get involved in a set over set situation on the flop (good or bad) is somewhere around 1: 10.000.
Doug, i subscribe very very rarely (i mean you are only the second channel i subscribe), but i really enjoy what you do here on this channel, keep going, and i hope to see you live on european live tournament one day :D
James Obst would have fold it :)
He folds everything..even when his hand is better lol..😂🤣😂🤣
Were these WSOP videos taken down for a while? I’ve been looking for them. Because I LOVE them.
Edit: still coming back a year later. All loosey goosey eating a sandwich. 🥪 🦢
Hi Doug, Loving your content here, how strong does the board have to look before you start jamming the pot to protect your set?
Hi Doug, love the show. If I could make one suggestion - call it Polker Hands! So catchy and funny
someone already made that same suggestion. Sorry to burst your original idea bubble.
I just can't think of a other hand that a tight player like Vayo could have. With the folds he was making at the final table I don't think he is ever calling with fives on the flop oop.
JonBenait06 He doesn't call with those hands preflop. He was the tightest player at the table
As tight as vayo been playing how can you call? Obvious vayo doesn't do this allin with anything less than 2 pair imo he only has sets in his range. Aces or kings would be 4-5 bet preflop
so basically Vayo's strategy was to play only sets, and hope the opponent has good bluff hand and stacks of to him or has a lower set? good strat, I have to try it sometimes...with my low level of play this could be the thing that makes me winning player at penny stakes...also how about check calling and check calling river jam..letting him bluff with some hands, keeping the king in your range makes him value bet all his sets(+there's not a lot of river where Josephy is like OMG that hit him I rather check it back with 22), whereas when you raise you kick out your kings you don't have any bluffs (you have to be really high level to choose to bluff here with 55, maybe doug would do it, but 1) I don't think Vayo ever calls the flop with 55 and bluffing here is even less likely) and he might fold 22 and of course all his bluffs...
Most of the set mining bots are probably losing at the micros.
I'm planning on mining Vayo style, that mean a lot of sets and getting payed off...
where did you get that from this video? HE plays a it tight, but no, you can't wait for a 1 in 100 hands (that your opponents can't get off of), and hope to go anywhere in a tourney. Of course Vayo was playing a wider range than this. But based on his heads up play, it seems like he might be a little too tight and Qui was able to capitalize on that big time heads up.
I've seen whole day 1, he played one hand...haven't seen whole day2/3 but heard he played tight also...
You guys are kinda dumb if you think any pro can survive in 2016 playing only in gear 1, there's obviously more to him.
Why would vayo call the flop with 44-66? Wouldn't he just be blocking air from Josephy's range and likely to get knocked off his hand regardless being oop vs 2 players? you mentioned him having those hands a lot on the turn so I wish you spoke a bit more about it on the flop, surely it's not solely for the purpose of having weak hands that turned straight draws in your range to bluff with when you do have a set?
Have you ever considered calling these analysis videos "Selbst's Hands?"
You said something about the implied odds being different due to the fact that they were all deep and this was the final table. How do implied odds change? Wouldn't they be the same regardless of stacks, ect? You either have good odds or bad ones right?
Anyway thanks for the channel -- your analysis is very good and more importantly entertaining (not mired down in game theory, ect).
You're thinking of pot odds. Implied odds takes into account how much you can win on future streets.
At about 2:58 you're talking about Josephy and you say 'pocket 2s are a hand you want to open on the button,especially when you're deep [this i get]" then --"your implied odds [something something] go up drastically'. So I think the first statement doesn't have anything to do with the second, that's where I got confused. Is the idea that your implied odds are so high because of the chance of hitting a set? And do implied odds take into account your opponent's ranges (like here where joesphy got screwed because of what must have seemed like great luck). Thanks
The two statements about having deep stacks and having higher implied odds are indeed connected. Implied odds take into consideration the amount of money you can win when you hit the hand you are hoping for in relation to the investment you have to make in order to see if you can hit your hand. Bigger stacks mean you can win more chips when flopping a set and thus your investment is more profitable.
The last part about getting screwed is called negative implied odds, which means thinking about how likely it is that you hit the hand you want to hit and still lose to an even better hand. In that sense, 22 often has a decent amount of reverse implied odds because if you and an opponent both hit a set, yours is always the worst one. However, in this particular hand, with only 3 players at the table, the chance of an opponent also having a pocket pair is really low, so reverse implied odds are pretty irrelevant when thinking about opening this hand on the button.
Imagine Josephy had half as many chips as Vayo. The implied odds for Vayo when he hits his set over set are half. He gets less return on the initial preflop bet when he makes a hand.
tehtsb
thanks a lot, that's what I was wondering. And why the fuck would this be a troll? Is it THAT obvious? Even Doug was talking about pot odds when I asked about implied odds.Not all of us play 'GTO'...sometimes you just read opponents and beat them (ok that sounds like a dick thing to say but I was called a troll)
Hey coach, dont lie to me. You hate to fold hands. Btw I am in UpSwing Poker and even the inicial material is kind of simple, i am enjoying it! You are a great teacher. Hug Doug
He played it like a set. They cannot fold hands, these guys
He thought he had a set! I thought he had a set! Yeah baby!
Feel his power baby
There is no fold option with a flopped set of 2s on a clean board. It just is what it is and you kinda hafta lose.
Ok not to hate on Vayo too much he can obviously play. I remember watching a FT he was at in an Earlier WSOp from like 2012-2014 where he was the most aggro player at the table so maybe the spot got to him?
With it being Vayo and how it was played, the only thing that makes sense for him to have really is a set, I think Josephy could have laid it down.
Murray Herts yea if he's a decent player it's a no brainer fold, absolutely nothing he can have but a set. Josephy is the hugest turd in the history of poker so I'm super glad his dumbass called then act like bottom set is the second nuts and impossible to fold. Lol you stupid turd fuck.
hey doug great video,
ever think of changing your "polker news series" to "poker news" considering it's about poker and poker is so close to polk. be a great name
Maybe Vayos shove is bad too? What if he opens the window here for Josephy to fold all worse hands and only continue with better?
Tough spot, if he calls he might let some hands realize equity, not get value from a K hero call/btm set and maybe get bluffed on an A or a 5 river, shoving hes almost screaming he has a set, Id probably just shove there aswell but I dont think there's a clear best play. His tought process there was probably " I have a set I cant fold 3 connected cards on the board all in" lol
The problem for Vayo is, he is out of position. If he want to slowplay, he need to check the river, and then Josephy can just check behind. So the only way to make sure, that stacks are going in, is to go for the check-raise on the turn. I guess, he could also donkbet the river, but that look almost stronger and is even more likely to induce a fold.
Is this a sneak peak of the "Polker hands" series that is coming soon?
Seems to me Vayo would want to shove the turn since this is a tournament situation and the pot is soooo big already. An A or 5 would be tragic and there will be 90 mill in there after he calls.
Having a superior stack here is worth more than the range play of calling IMO.
Have you considered calling these 'Poker Dougs'?
was that richard nixon in the thumbnail?
This is just SICK!-Daniel Negreanu
Josephy had a lot of well known supporters.. I was surprised by that
Your hair is actually really cool. I'm jealous.
pre flop 22 shouldve mucked facing a 3 bet + a person to act behind
Calls
Insta snap response "i knew he had it"
nice call bro
i agree u can argue a fold is attainable but u never discussed the fact that vayo is a super-nit relative to the other players at this final table (not just 3 handed, the whole time). u can hear josephy on the rail saying "last night he folded that hand in sb but tonight he flatted" which verifies that cliff KNOWS vayo is super nitty. given this tight image, the turn play by vayo is either a bluff or better than 22. bluffs can be ruled out, the guy never bluffs. so when u consider this, i think the fold is more reasonable.
Its the fact he plays against probably the most tight player on the final table it is probably a fold...
But even when vayo has a straight you still have a 23% of winning the hand if the board pairs.
Considering its Vayo he is playing against he is almost never going to call the flop with A4, A5 or 56, because hes a very tight player.
So what else could he have? You cant really put him on AK given the preflop action.
Obviously its easier to talk when you see the cards, but i honestly think this is worth a fold.
I agree. It is a completely sick spot, because there are only 6 combos of sets, which beat you. But nothing else really makes sense for him to have and play this way. So if I face that check-raise, I am for sure looking for a bucket. However I would probably call it, because you can never know 100%, that your opponent is unable to have something else than just a set.
Also if he fold, he leave himself with a crippled stack and almost no chance to win the tournament. Which is way more important than maintaining a small chance of finishing in second place. After all people remember the winner. They dont remember, who came second. At least he went out like a man, and noone will ever blame a poker player for going broke with a set over set situation. It is the definition of a cooler, because its just so unlikely to happen. And even more so when you are playing shorthanded.
JonBenait06 Yes he could also push with nine high like a boss.
JonBenait06 big heart of a lion -- he'll go further next year
The polker hands comments are getting old, what are you guys a bunch of 12 year olds?
No, I'm 11
Ric Poitras stop polking the trolls
U must be new. Welcome to RUclips
Yes, I'm 12
Doug how often do see two queen of clubs on the flop, like whats the %. :D Also wanted to add that it was obvious Vayo had 33's I knew it right when I saw the hole card images. Lastly can I have $5.
Coincidentally, Doug Polk was playing vs. Colman in 2015 when 2 queen of clubs appeared on the flop.
i.imgur.com/J9iuKYi.jpg
Defective cards
Is Josephy correct in calling big reraise by Ngyuen preflop with 22 when there is another player to act behind him?
When hoping to hit a set… most definitely. In hindsight, what he should have done is shove his entire stack. Both of his other opponents would have folded like cheap Walmart lawn chairs.
Vayo is such a tight tight player. This is the type of hand you look back on and realise that it was so clear that the guy had a set. It wasn't necessary to play for all the cheese. Playing for $8million. Is here ever bluffing? Clear fold
Been loving the hand analysis mate! this series is on point. I feel like we should be snapchat friends. DW I post rarely and am hilarious - Faynetrain
the final day started off so hype!
Analysing it he's only repping a slow played AA or 33. And so in hindsight it's an easy fold. However, when you have a set of deuces it's too hard to fold in the moment.
How do I avoid getting stacked set over set?
By folding.
I would put Vayo on the extremely unlikely, but weirdly really slow played Aces before I ever put AJs in his range. The way this guy plays its always a set of 3s, its just one of them spots you're going broke in 99% of the time.
My sister's ex boyfriend used to play poker with us, and for some reason, time after time, he would flop a set at the same time I would flop a higher set. I took him out of tournements multiple times because of this. Even when I didn't try to hide it well (like when I wanted to get rid of people who might draw for a flush), He never wanted to believe me.
Doug why it can be slightly exploitable to fold set of 22 He can afford to fold 50% of his range ( Vayo ships 75 mil to win 74,5) and with possible str8s i think it can be mathematicaly corect fold.
I'm not into live reads too much but the jo guy was giving off multiple tells of a big hand. When people stare at you after betting they almost always have a big hand not to mention his heavy breathing I'm jamming turn with a set of threes every time. I would have a tiny tiny fear of pocket fours but I don't see him calling flop with 4s. This is a player dependent.
Hey Doug I had this wacky idea of calling this series ''Polker hands'' instead of Poker hands because your last name happens to be POLK and that is incredibly similar to POKER :-O Kappa
Nice vid btw :-)
you're the man DP
Vayo only goes all in with 3's, straight or flush draw. He was pot committed to find out.
What was this shot with?
During your post flop analysis, you mention a lot of hands that you would continue through the flop with, including several off suited high card combos (K/J,Q/10, etc). Now I know that Nguyen plays into this flop with off suited high cards but you already touched on that being an iffy move because of how likely it is that he can get outclassed by a better pocket(Q/10, A/K, etc). I mean I might be reading too much into this, and I am an amateur player so I definitely defer to your judgement regarding this, hence why Im posting the comment in the first place. But aren't you contradicting yourself a bit by saying preflop that A/J off is a weak pocket, and then coming back and saying several other off suited high card combos have a lot of play-ability post flop? Now granted Nguyen isn't a traditional poker player in the way he enters a lot of hands, and plays his flops, (kinda Tom Dwan-ish from my perspective), and yes the flop drops a cowboy, but that still puts a lot of the off suited hands you mentioned in an odd place (Q/10 and such) doesn't it? I know I must be missing something, but I cant see what it is, any help here is appreciated. Cheers on the videos, I've learned a lot watching them.
Man begging for a one outer is pathetic. Why would you lower yourself to that? "It's coming." what a joke.
Love me some Polker Hands!
Josephy is such an overrated player. This could of shown him to be deserving but proved he was just a luckbox in making the final table. Gives me so much confidence when average players build a career in poker
So, Doug. You know how your name is Doug Polk? Well I'm thinking "Polk" is similar phonetically to the "Pok" in "poker". Here's a novel idea, call these videos "Polker Hands"
BigM polking good idea polk sure
He was Vayo head on the turn :)
Shaun Deeb sitting there like "are you kidding me?!"
The real winner is that animal on Ngyuen's head. Best hat ever
What happened to the "DONT FOLD SETS" talk?
Nguyen was at 10% after the turn... what were his outs?
splashparis 5 for a straight.
Shit yeah - this is why I'm terrible at Poker.
Josephy is not even at the top of his range here. He can easily have A5 and 56. So by folding 22 he still leaves himself with some hands that continue. This makes a fold seem even more reasonable.
Hey Doug, what poker books have you read that your recommend?
Jordy Lewis your recommend polker books?
Vayo the new chip leader who gave away the title....3.5 million and the glory....literally the first chip leader who tried to fold his way to a title. Hard to get set over set headsup eh Gordon?
Doug, imagine vayo was bluffing and josephy decides to lay his set down. You would be like: "He should never fold a set there, just way too strong!" I might be wrong though ;) Love your analysis over all, keep up the great work!
Vayo is NEVER shoving the turn on a draw with his tournament on the line! He isn't a risk taker. No balls! He wants to charge the backdoor flush draw. 22s was a clear fold here, what can a set of 22s beat here. Obvious he got 33s or 44s
Of course is obvious when u see the hand...the ones who r saying it s an easy fold are bunch of no lifers who watch youtube...it s 3 handed with a set over set...how often do u flop a set în that spot? Of course it makes sense when u see the hands...get a job man...cause i know for sure U R not a good poker player,u wouldn t have posted comments on a video,u would be making money ...so...GET A JOB...
@@serbanaurelian4151 i have to dissapoint you, but this is clear fold considering flop overcall and check shove range of Vayo...no bluffs in range, just pure value and 22 is bluff catcher in this spot. Im speaking from the point of man who played more than 30k mtts in past 9 years and make more than 500k in profits, and i do comment videos and answer to dumb comments like yours ;) cheers, and find job like you said.
vayo has only 33 there or maybe some a5s with backdoor flush draw on the flop.nothing else.if u r playing ur regular games u just have a set with 22 and get it in not being happy about it, but the guy is super nit he only has 33 or a5 and u r playing the wsop main event final table. he just never has semi bluffs at this stage of the game for his tournament life.
I have those same gaming chairs. Different kind of gaming thou
He should have used his one time. When else are you gonna use it?
Great video. Who is missing on the milk carton? It brakes my heart that they came out so small.
You heart has *brakes*? That's fucking awesome.
Oh no! A typo! You got me. Now, I will never get my question answered 😳
it just sounded funny. calm down.
I didn't realize they'd appear so small when I ordered them. I'll order some larger ones eventually. Here's the original image: i.imgur.com/Ak0aJIW.jpg
Yeah, I saw the episode where you explained it. Thank you for replying, and I want to commend you on great videos. Funny and educational!