I was looking through the comments today and it appears I missed a good opportunity to call this series "Polker Hands" (My last name is Polk and my show is about poker, it makes sense if you think about it). Will certainly be looking to use this clever joke moving forward.
The only good part of this final table was counting how many times Antonio said "He has a lot of heart," which is just code for, "Oh, crap. These guys suck."
He probably had a plan... lose more hands but try to win the big ones... Had Vayo gotten a couple more hands in spots, he would have looked like a genius player...
Maybe Nguyen had a live read on vayo. Why check back the 5 and win ~20% of the time when you know you can just place your massive balls on the table knowing the nit will fold? Absolute legend
Great analysis Polk. This really shows what a bad fold it was by Vayo. It's unbalancedly tight, it's a fold you'd make to exploit someone who underbluffs. It's just a baffling mistake when Vayo should have known that Nguyen is likely to be unbalanced towards overbluffing and if anything he should try to exploit him by bluffcatching in an unbalancedly frequent way.
I know exactly what Vayo is feeling and thinking... He is thinking "I'll pick up a monster on future hands and he'll blast and I'll have him trapped" Man, I've sat for hours waiting... Then I'd flop 7 8 10 with J-9s and make a penny. It does work getting punked sometimes..
Surely Qui is shoving instead of checking at the end there because he knows Vayo is ultra tight and has to have at least a 9 to call down two streets like that - while at the same time figuring Vayo's not going to bet his tournament life on a 9 considering his absolute fold-fest. Understand it's probably not the right play in general poker though.
that was the best analysis on this hand, and we shouldnt forget, qui had put him all in with a flush before, and vayo surely had already the information about quis all in. Maybe that was a reason for the fold too
I would have figured out the same as Qui. 5 is winning maybe 15% of the showdowns here. All in wins in over 50% of the time, when we expect vayo will fold every 9. But as vayo it is really hard to tell if I had called. I guess I would have taken way longer to decide weather to fold or not there.
Vayo is a tight player and I think Qui picked up on that and played him like a fiddle. I also think that's why heads up between them lasted over 8 hours. Qui deserved his win...the best play I've seen since last year with Joe.
theres no friendship in battles are you crazyman, its called building trust and abuse the trust to subdue the opponent when the real chance comes vietcong style
Great analysis. Your spot on with your remark about tournament life. I can't remember playing a tournament hand where I took into consideration getting knocked out of the tournament. Heads up there's no reason to think about it. The only time it should enter your mind if there's a mini stack (5 blinds or less) and there's a big pay jump. And even then I don't like to think about it. Just play your game and make your best decisions.
Hey Doug, I was wondering, why don't you call this "Polker Hands"? I think it'll be a clever pun because your name is Doug "Polk" and you are reviewing "Poker" Hands. Haha I think it'll be a good gag to pull on your viewers.
I don't know if this is a troll or serious, but that's like the most frequent comment under the poker hands videos and doug addressed it many times... :D
Yesss! was hoping that you'd explain this hand because I watched the whole heads up live from the start until the end, what my thought was it had to do with some of the previous hands they were playing, especially the one where Qui triple barreled with the club flush draw and got there on the river and pushed all in on Vayo. Vayo correctly folded that hand for his tournament life and I'm sure he saw the hand afterwards during break (because of the 30 minute delay on TV) so I think Vayo was thinking if Qui pushes all in on the river he'd have a hand that beats his 9 in this situation (overpair?or JT QT KT AT of clubs which picked up more outs on the turn?) and also like you said Qui was just punking him the whole heads up lol. I think he didn't think the hand through carefully enough and was worrying about if he's wrong by calling there his tournament would be over. I agree with Doug on barreling the turn with that hand is quite strange with that bet size because maybe Qui is somewhat an armature but he went all in on the river to put Vayo to the maximum test for his tournament life on the line... maybe it's got something to do with Qui's baccarat playing habit haha! Either he folds and he gains a massive chip lead or he'd have to start again if Vayo called that leaves Qui's with 100 mil (50 bb). Just my thoughts! Thanks Doug for the video.
the only thing worse than vayo's fold is esfandiari saying "you cant allow past plays have an effect on your decison", yes mate, lets all delete our hand histories and go for the feeling!!!
another great video Doug! pretty much once he folded there i don't think he could of won the main event raccoon's confidence would of been so high after that and he just kept the pressure on!
I play a lot of SnG's, and it always amazes me how many people just ante/blind off their chips, when they are near the bubble, instead of making a stand and going for the win. Also, short-handed, people just don't understand how strong pairs are. Your starting hand doesn't matter NEARLY as much as it would in a ring-game.
thank you doug. was waiting for you to go over this hand haha. absolutely agree. he took that line against this opponent to add bluff ranges into his opponents range. when he calls on the turn im pretty sure he has to call on all the brick rivers... 5d being one of them.
I agree. This is a leak with a lot of great online minds. They are so focused on the purely analytical side of the game that they miss out on important info here. Of course there is always the danger of misreading a live tell but it can give you some tendential info and help you in close spots.
Hey Doug, how about an analysis of the hand played by Ruzicka when he triple barrel bluffed with AKo to end his WSOP Main Event run? I gained a lot of respect for Ruzicka. I can probably count on my hand the number of times that I've emptied the clip with three streets of aggression after 3-betting with AK and blanking on every street. I'd love to hear your thoughts about barreling with overcards after entirely missing the board. Also, I remember you 4-betting with AQo in the Aussie Millions cash game against an opponent holding JJ, and you fired two bullets after missing the board pressuring the villain to fold. Of course, that king on the turn connected strongly with your range. You must have considered that the villain wouldn't have called your flop bet without an unpaired hand so AK or KQ were likely out of his range. AA, KK, and QQ would have 5-bet shoved on you, so it seems that you put your opponent on a pair like 99-JJ after his call on the flop. Would you have fired a third bullet on the river no matter what? I'm guessing that the stack-to-pot ratio committed you to continuing the story. Is it optimal to barrel on every street in 3-bet pots with overpairs like AA, KK, and QQ to balance a strategy if I'm also triple barreling when I miss with AK or AQ?
I have to love the pressure he is asserting here. Perhaps Vayo had a plan to ry and trap initialy and then got scared. What I think is if you call the turn the only river card you could fold would be an ace or a king but even then would he ship. I watched this several times what does Vayo think Qui is reping, set? Another great video Doug!
"I might want to consider going smaller because of how tight Vayo was playing in the big blind" This doesn't seem like a good argument to me because Vayo is not a reacreational player and his big blind defend range is going to factor in his opponents open size and become wider as a response.
this fold is bad, and you should feel bad. nice video doug, you made me think a lot about the balance of my hands, i can say you help me to get a step in the poker thinking. thanks. and ah, you ever think about calling that polker hands?
thoughts on going all in on the turn if you are VAYO? basically to protect and a bit of value, there's a lot of bad cards on the river and pot is big enough.
hey doug, can you please explain why you said that when he bets 80% of the pot OTR you have to continue with a little over half of all your hands? because our range OTT was strong flush draws, combo draws and 9s, and there are way more draws combos than there are 9 combos and we are of course folding busted draws on the river. So, could you please explain what you meant? Thx a lot for the video!
Doug can you analyse your 98ss vs Matt kirk's 42 in the super high roller cash? Thought it was a super interesting hand especially with Kirk on your left
C'Mon, Doug. Tell us how you REALLY feel. Just kidding! I think you're super thoughtful about a game it's really love, and I always appreciate authenticity. If I weren't an NYC musician with no money I would TOTALLY hire you as coach. Keep doing what you do, Kk
Hey Doug, is calling the big turn bet always the play here? is there an argument for shoving?, given the size of the pot, Nguyens bluffing frequency and being able to equity to draws?.
One strategy is to let the other guy keep bluffing into as you said by check-calling every street. However, what’s wrong with check-raising the flop? Win the pot on the flop and don’t put yourself in a guessing situation for your tournament life when he jams the river. Sometimes when you slowplay, you end up trapping yourself. The mistake Vayo made is that he played his hand like he was chasing a draw or had a 2 or 4. Qui didn’t put him on a 9 and so he jammed the river. But when you under-rep your hand, you have to realize that the opponent has bought your under-rep and jammed when the 5 hits the river, thinking he’s good. Vayo got Qui to do exactly what he wanted, but the moment was too big for Vayo and he folded under pressure. He was just too conservative. If he knows that about himself, he should check-raise big on the flop when he knows he’s good and move to the next hand. It’s pointless to trap your opponent if you never spring your trap.
Once again the World Champ is not necessarily the best player in the world but the one with the biggest balls. Compared to you Doug i would imagine Nguyen has only a small fraction of the knowledge you have but he uses bullying tactics to push his opponents around. Heads up you would absolutely destroy him ...no brainer. You will find that all the GREAT players have an intellect higher than normal...aka Ike Huxton, Phil Galfond etc etc.
I've always asked myself what happened when you saw the 2 Queens of clubs on the flop? Did u quit the game? did the players in the game make any conspiracy theory of someone cheated afterwards?
Hey Doug, would Vayo check shoving the turn be a bad play? Is Nguyen often bluffing the river on missed hands? I don't see any hands stronger than Q9 that Nguyen could have that would check down the river.
never seen someone play so bad heads up, like how did Vayo get so far if played that bad, man he must of ran real good, heads up showed all his weakness
Hey Doug, I often hear you relate the size of a bet (taking into account the pot) and say that because of the sizing you should call with x% of your hands. Then you explain how to choose between the potential hands you would call with. What math are you doing exactly to come up with the percentage?
Hey Doug, you're awesome; I love your sense of humour! Just wondering what happened with the hand where there was 2 x Qc? Was the hand dead? I've never seen that!!!!
Yea, while I was watching the heads up battle live, I kept wondering what your video analysis would be on many of these hands. _"Hm, what would Doug say about this hand? :-)"_
Yes, people double checking their cards will almost never bluff, I think Qui knew it and did it on purpose to try to give the reverse tell, just in case... I might be wrong tho.
Great Polker hand. Nguyen got the heart of a lion. Vayo was so passive heads up it was painful to watch at times. Doug, keep thee great content coming. and two Q Clubs... WTF!?
I appreciate the analysis Doug and the lengths you go to explain the hand. However, I would like to put it more bluntly. Vayo played like a complete nit and this is an absolute CLEAR call in my opinion. Maybe I'm a fish, but I would most definitely be putting the cape on and saying 'fuck it.. call'. FFS your playing someone heads up who claims to be a professional baccarat player and you want to fold a hand as strong as this when he's representing such a narrow range of hands? I really would love for you to do a video explaining how this nit has been described as such a good player, and used to 'crush' online when he was a teen; i see nothing from his final table play that would suggest that.
I think the biggest thing for us small-time punters to wrap our heads around is the concept of blockers. While calling off the mid-pair 9 here seems suicidal, the Q blocker reduces the number of overpairs that villain is repping. That gives us much more reasonable showdown value. Multi-way, I'm folding; HU, I'll throw up in my mouth a little and call.
I think you're spot on on the GTO decision. Calling Q9 and folding 89 is a great way to balance; not certain it's optimal but you're a much better poker player than me so I'll take your word for it (is J9 a call then? it seems like the break point). That said, there were hands earlier in the match where I felt like he should have called smaller river bets with Q/K high if for no other reason than to send a message that he won't be bluffed EVERY POT. Those saying that a fold is reasonable clearly didn't watch the coverage. He knew every hand from 30 minutes before an older, and almost all of them were bluffs or bets with the best hand that were also bluffs (say, J8 "bluffing" 56 when neither pair). When your opponent is running you over and you flop top pair, good kicker, get this awesome of a runout AND under-rep your hand the whole way you HAVE to call. I know it's the ME, I know it's your tournament life, but there is no more laddering (which Vayo did phenomenally throughout the rest of the FT, btw), it's either win or Nguyen (rather proud of myself for that one). BTW - you should really think of calling this "Polker Hands"... It has a nice ring to it.
100% agree with this. I don't know what the bottom of my calling range is but Q9 is such a slam dunk call against this player in this session it's not even close.
MrAndersonmm Q9 no clubs! Against a guys who probably overbluffs flush draws.. So sick to fold a 2:1 spot when in reality you might be good 80% of the time. 7figs equity up in flames ouch
hey doug! I know what the poker range chart looks like, but i dont visualize it during hands in tournaments, should i? would i become a better player if I visualize the chart while playing hands?
You don't really have to visualize a hand chart to know what your range is in a given spot. I prefer counting out combos of hands I know I would play this way. Hand charts easily give a wrong impression of how often you have a given hand in a spot because you have suited combos way more seldom than you have unsuited, and pocket pairs are in between :)
+Molteriet For a beginner best advise is to follow charts initially as a guideline then adjust with exp. In general shove wider than what the charts say.
Molteriet thanks for your advice! that;s kinda what i was asking about. I see a lot of pros using hand charts to study but i dont know if they actually visualize it during a hand or not haha
Qui Nguyen knew that Vayo would be playing by some sort of "the book" a la Tom Marchese and therefore threw "the book" out the window. Even though Vayo was the game theorist, former teen poker genius, etc., Nguyen has probably watched enough Alpha 8 to know what Vayo would be up to. Therefore, Nguyen took a page out of an older book and played his opponent, not his cards. He beat the shit out of Vayo and the heads-up match only lasted as long as it did because Vayo survived a number of all-ins. I'm no poker pro, but I do have three relatively small tournament victories to my name and I won two of them by hammering my heads-up opponent the whole time and just marveling as they folded time and time again, like Doyle Brunson talks about in Super System. So well done, Qui the Vegas Gambler! Sometimes things come full circle and the advantage is back in the court of the old school grinder instead of the teenage online whiz kid.
I think that vayo ei tj out a doubt was thinking that nguyen had jacks or better. I think if he at least min raised the flop, nguyen would most likely went away. Maybe if nguyen Re raises, vayo can tank fold, but I don't think nguyen would have done anything that funky with total air. Nguyen probabky knew the range vayo was in, meaning 1 pair and knew he wouldn't call his tournament off, especially after running him over for pretty much the whole time. Vayo seemed to be waiting on that 1 big Phil Helmuth hand that never came.
If you think your 9's are good to call the turn, what possible hand would the 5 on the river help Qui with? If you thought you were good, why not bet the river 1/2 pot and if you get raised then so be it, but checking the river when a blank hits seems like giving up.
Decent analysis. How would you "rate" a somehow blocker bet (20 M-ish) by Vayo on the river? A shove by Mr. Win over a bet like that would well be somehow impossible?
loved the video doug. i was playing lodden thinks with a friend and we bet on what you think the percentage of poker players all time are winning players. i have $100 riding on it so would love to hear back from you
Maybe Qui saw Vayo look at his chips during the flop, right before he checked. This can be taken as a sign that Vayo wanted to bet with a 4 or 2 but passed the action to the aggressor. Qui recognizes this and trys to push him off the small pair with two barrels unsuccessfully. Then he binks a 5 on the river, double checks his cards to make sure he is qualified, thinks he is good, and shoves for value.
The only Pair Vayo Needed to actually make this a Great Head Up, was a " Pair of Balls" which he left back in his hotel room with is book POKER FOR DUMMIES 101!!!! Worst heads up ive ever seen!! I wish josephy wouldve gone headsup,!! He played excellent, just got sooo freaking unlucky with that set hand 222-333 againt Vayo the Gayo!! Well, Thats Poker!!!
Another thing I dont get is that Vayo won the River at the Winstar about two months ago so he has to have some recent experience in headsup spots. I don't know what happened to him but he is not going to enjoy the coverage.
I don't agree with checking the river with the pair of fives. That five rarely changes anything against a player like Vayo. He has a nine so often here and he had been folding all night so pulling the trigger was the correct choice imo.
In fairness this is why, it is to tough to play out of position. It may sound like a brilliant thing to check and let an aggressive opponent bomb into you. But if he continue firing, its never comfortable, and certainly not with a hand like a pair of 9`s.
I was looking through the comments today and it appears I missed a good opportunity to call this series "Polker Hands" (My last name is Polk and my show is about poker, it makes sense if you think about it). Will certainly be looking to use this clever joke moving forward.
so i was not the only one noticing haha
Doug Polk i was thinking douger hands, but your right. after reading the comments, obviously polker hands is the right choice
Douger is also pretty good. I am going to put that into the "Maybe" column on my to do list.
Past you would eventually not agree with you
LMAO
When the overbluffing guy meet the overfolding guy. Perfect match...
The most profitable game
LMAO
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The only good part of this final table was counting how many times Antonio said "He has a lot of heart," which is just code for, "Oh, crap. These guys suck."
Vayo gave this championship to Nguyen. Played like a complete nit, and deserved to lose. This hand is just one especially glaring example of it.
He probably had a plan... lose more hands but try to win the big ones... Had Vayo gotten a couple more hands in spots, he would have looked like a genius player...
Maybe Nguyen had a live read on vayo. Why check back the 5 and win ~20% of the time when you know you can just place your massive balls on the table knowing the nit will fold? Absolute legend
Sick bluff by Nguyen!
Nguyen played that hand with heart
Cuz Doug plays analyzed by GTO,which is non sense
Hahahaha
When its the final table heads up- sometimes the logical play is one that no one else would do. There are some moments you can’t analyze with logic
Great analysis Polk. This really shows what a bad fold it was by Vayo. It's unbalancedly tight, it's a fold you'd make to exploit someone who underbluffs. It's just a baffling mistake when Vayo should have known that Nguyen is likely to be unbalanced towards overbluffing and if anything he should try to exploit him by bluffcatching in an unbalancedly frequent way.
Unbalancedly????
I know exactly what Vayo is feeling and thinking... He is thinking "I'll pick up a monster on future hands and he'll blast and I'll have him trapped" Man, I've sat for hours waiting... Then I'd flop 7 8 10 with J-9s and make a penny. It does work getting punked sometimes..
Surely Qui is shoving instead of checking at the end there because he knows Vayo is ultra tight and has to have at least a 9 to call down two streets like that - while at the same time figuring Vayo's not going to bet his tournament life on a 9 considering his absolute fold-fest. Understand it's probably not the right play in general poker though.
that was the best analysis on this hand, and we shouldnt forget, qui had put him all in with a flush before, and vayo surely had already the information about quis all in. Maybe that was a reason for the fold too
I would have figured out the same as Qui.
5 is winning maybe 15% of the showdowns here. All in wins in over 50% of the time, when we expect vayo will fold every 9.
But as vayo it is really hard to tell if I had called. I guess I would have taken way longer to decide weather to fold or not there.
Yeah doug checking that river and losing haha what a joke
Was Vayo waiting for the absolute coconuts before going all in?
He only moves in when he flop sets
No set no bet
The only times he called down Nguyen he had two pair (and he folded one of them) so yeah, he was waiting for pocket quads.
Firo Rosso pocket quads lmfao
Yeah he just wanted to keep it friendly
sharing this breakdown is so great. to me this is a humanitarian effort on the part of Doug Polk and deserves a Nobel Peace prize.
Vayo is a tight player and I think Qui picked up on that and played him like a fiddle. I also think that's why heads up between them lasted over 8 hours. Qui deserved his win...the best play I've seen since last year with Joe.
nguyen should have been like 'if you fold and show, I show, no bluff, just being friendly'
theres no friendship in battles are you crazyman, its called building trust and abuse the trust to subdue the opponent when the real chance comes vietcong style
lmao
@anonimofied What you are doing is called Verbal Abuse! "check your privelge"
Great analysis. Your spot on with your remark about tournament life. I can't remember playing a tournament hand where I took into consideration getting knocked out of the tournament. Heads up there's no reason to think about it. The only time it should enter your mind if there's a mini stack (5 blinds or less) and there's a big pay jump. And even then I don't like to think about it. Just play your game and make your best decisions.
Hey Doug, I was wondering, why don't you call this "Polker Hands"? I think it'll be a clever pun because your name is Doug "Polk" and you are reviewing "Poker" Hands. Haha I think it'll be a good gag to pull on your viewers.
I don't know if this is a troll or serious, but that's like the most frequent comment under the poker hands videos and doug addressed it many times... :D
Whoooooosh......
That was definitely NOT a trolling...
Yesss! was hoping that you'd explain this hand because I watched the whole heads up live from the start until the end, what my thought was it had to do with some of the previous hands they were playing, especially the one where Qui triple barreled with the club flush draw and got there on the river and pushed all in on Vayo. Vayo correctly folded that hand for his tournament life and I'm sure he saw the hand afterwards during break (because of the 30 minute delay on TV) so I think Vayo was thinking if Qui pushes all in on the river he'd have a hand that beats his 9 in this situation (overpair?or JT QT KT AT of clubs which picked up more outs on the turn?) and also like you said Qui was just punking him the whole heads up lol. I think he didn't think the hand through carefully enough and was worrying about if he's wrong by calling there his tournament would be over. I agree with Doug on barreling the turn with that hand is quite strange with that bet size because maybe Qui is somewhat an armature but he went all in on the river to put Vayo to the maximum test for his tournament life on the line... maybe it's got something to do with Qui's baccarat playing habit haha! Either he folds and he gains a massive chip lead or he'd have to start again if Vayo called that leaves Qui's with 100 mil (50 bb). Just my thoughts! Thanks Doug for the video.
Was having a walk earlier, trying to analyse this hand and knowing that you were bound to post it. When I got home, bink! Cheers Doug
the only thing worse than vayo's fold is esfandiari saying "you cant allow past plays have an effect on your decison", yes mate, lets all delete our hand histories and go for the feeling!!!
another great video Doug! pretty much once he folded there i don't think he could of won the main event raccoon's confidence would of been so high after that and he just kept the pressure on!
Yeah, that was probably the tide turning hand one way or the other. He lost the flip.
robert lamotta - lol
i liked the way it looks like you notice the the Qc repeat straight away rather than after you've scooped your chips in
I play a lot of SnG's, and it always amazes me how many people just ante/blind off their chips, when they are near the bubble, instead of making a stand and going for the win. Also, short-handed, people just don't understand how strong pairs are. Your starting hand doesn't matter NEARLY as much as it would in a ring-game.
Also it got me so tilted that Vayo was more nit HU than when there were 6 and he was playing against Nguyen
Thank you for making this video. I was beginning to think I was the only one on Earth that believed what you just explained.
Hopefully the next video is about Vayo vs Josephy.. This set over set hand. Seems like it was foldable hand. Ty Doug.
Hey doug, what acctually happened on that 2x QC board in the cash game, any fallout or anything like that?
Doug, listen pal I've been thinking... You should maybe consider naming this segement - Polker Hands?
Hey Doug, I enjoy a lot your poker hands analysis, I think it would be great if you could this on a hand that we don't know everyone's holdings.
thank you doug. was waiting for you to go over this hand haha. absolutely agree. he took that line against this opponent to add bluff ranges into his opponents range. when he calls on the turn im pretty sure he has to call on all the brick rivers... 5d being one of them.
I like how the stream footage you have is of higher quality than wsop posted on their YT channel
Epic RUclips channel Doug these hand analysis are much appreciated
OMG I literally burst out laughing at 2:13 LOL
i did too =D
lmao wasn't expecting that at all
The "are you f*** kidding me" face of Doug :D
did that actually happen?
Yes, and they didn't notice until the hand was over (Doug won with a bet on the flop). Had to give the chips back.
I don't understand why he really never looked at Nguyen during a lot of hands. He made not attempt to pick up any physical tells.
I agree. This is a leak with a lot of great online minds. They are so focused on the purely analytical side of the game that they miss out on important info here. Of course there is always the danger of misreading a live tell but it can give you some tendential info and help you in close spots.
Such a joy to watch these shows Doug ... ! :-) Keep it up !
I remember being so frustrated watching this. Vayo clearly missed several opportunities.
Why frustrated? Were you rooting for Vayo? Really?
been waiting for this.
you the man Doug.
Thanks dude!
Love your stuff Doug. Most poker vids are boring or spergy. Yours is very topical and fresh.
- insert here the polker hand joke -
Hey Doug, how about an analysis of the hand played by Ruzicka when he triple barrel bluffed with AKo to end his WSOP Main Event run? I gained a lot of respect for Ruzicka. I can probably count on my hand the number of times that I've emptied the clip with three streets of aggression after 3-betting with AK and blanking on every street. I'd love to hear your thoughts about barreling with overcards after entirely missing the board.
Also, I remember you 4-betting with AQo in the Aussie Millions cash game against an opponent holding JJ, and you fired two bullets after missing the board pressuring the villain to fold. Of course, that king on the turn connected strongly with your range. You must have considered that the villain wouldn't have called your flop bet without an unpaired hand so AK or KQ were likely out of his range. AA, KK, and QQ would have 5-bet shoved on you, so it seems that you put your opponent on a pair like 99-JJ after his call on the flop. Would you have fired a third bullet on the river no matter what? I'm guessing that the stack-to-pot ratio committed you to continuing the story.
Is it optimal to barrel on every street in 3-bet pots with overpairs like AA, KK, and QQ to balance a strategy if I'm also triple barreling when I miss with AK or AQ?
I have to love the pressure he is asserting here. Perhaps Vayo had a plan to ry and trap initialy and then got scared. What I think is if you call the turn the only river card you could fold would be an ace or a king but even then would he ship. I watched this several times what does Vayo think Qui is reping, set? Another great video Doug!
Do a cribs episode!! we wanna see dougs house and car!!
"I might want to consider going smaller because of how tight Vayo was playing in the big blind" This doesn't seem like a good argument to me because Vayo is not a reacreational player and his big blind defend range is going to factor in his opponents open size and become wider as a response.
great video, Doug. your hand review videos improve each and every time!
and for the record im calling my Q9 down 100% of the time unless the flush or a J of better gets there, go ahead and call me results oriented.
this fold is bad, and you should feel bad. nice video doug, you made me think a lot about the balance of my hands, i can say you help me to get a step in the poker thinking. thanks. and ah, you ever think about calling that polker hands?
thoughts on going all in on the turn if you are VAYO? basically to protect and a bit of value, there's a lot of bad cards on the river and pot is big enough.
hey doug, can you please explain why you said that when he bets 80% of the pot OTR you have to continue with a little over half of all your hands? because our range OTT was strong flush draws, combo draws and 9s, and there are way more draws combos than there are 9 combos and we are of course folding busted draws on the river. So, could you please explain what you meant? Thx a lot for the video!
Doug can you analyse your 98ss vs Matt kirk's 42 in the super high roller cash? Thought it was a super interesting hand especially with Kirk on your left
C'Mon, Doug. Tell us how you REALLY feel.
Just kidding! I think you're super thoughtful about a game it's really love, and I always appreciate authenticity. If I weren't an NYC musician with no money I would TOTALLY hire you as coach.
Keep doing what you do,
Kk
Hey Doug, is calling the big turn bet always the play here? is there an argument for shoving?, given the size of the pot, Nguyens bluffing frequency and being able to equity to draws?.
Nice video man. Kinda random but what's your dog's breed? He's epic
One strategy is to let the other guy keep bluffing into as you said by check-calling every street. However, what’s wrong with check-raising the flop? Win the pot on the flop and don’t put yourself in a guessing situation for your tournament life when he jams the river. Sometimes when you slowplay, you end up trapping yourself. The mistake Vayo made is that he played his hand like he was chasing a draw or had a 2 or 4. Qui didn’t put him on a 9 and so he jammed the river. But when you under-rep your hand, you have to realize that the opponent has bought your under-rep and jammed when the 5 hits the river, thinking he’s good. Vayo got Qui to do exactly what he wanted, but the moment was too big for Vayo and he folded under pressure. He was just too conservative. If he knows that about himself, he should check-raise big on the flop when he knows he’s good and move to the next hand. It’s pointless to trap your opponent if you never spring your trap.
Once again the World Champ is not necessarily the best player in the world but the one with the biggest balls. Compared to you Doug i would imagine Nguyen has only a small fraction of the knowledge you have but he uses bullying tactics to push his opponents around. Heads up you would absolutely destroy him ...no brainer. You will find that all the GREAT players have an intellect higher than normal...aka Ike Huxton, Phil Galfond etc etc.
I've always asked myself what happened when you saw the 2 Queens of clubs on the flop?
Did u quit the game? did the players in the game make any conspiracy theory of someone cheated afterwards?
Hey Doug, would Vayo check shoving the turn be a bad play? Is Nguyen often bluffing the river on missed hands? I don't see any hands stronger than Q9 that Nguyen could have that would check down the river.
If he does that he would only get it in against Nguyen's value range. There are not many draws to protect against so that would be a bad play IMO
this hand will haunt Vayo for the rest of his life
yes with the 6 million doller on the conto
Yo doug who do you dislike the turn sizing? Makes sense to go big with Tx and over pairs?
Is this river call range the same for cash games: if someone bets 80% pot call a little over 1/2 of your hands on the river?
Hey Doug, from an MDF theory perspective, would you be calling approximately the top 55% of your turn calling range on the river?
never seen someone play so bad heads up, like how did Vayo get so far if played that bad, man he must of ran real good, heads up showed all his weakness
helps if you suck out on AA with AK allin pre 2/3 times, order up sets against top/top and generally run like god with 200 players remaining lol
Zed vayo is the epitome of the internet poker player that doesn't want to take risks. Sometimes in poker you just gotta go balls to the wall
Hey Doug, I often hear you relate the size of a bet (taking into account the pot) and say that because of the sizing you should call with x% of your hands. Then you explain how to choose between the potential hands you would call with. What math are you doing exactly to come up with the percentage?
Hey Doug, you're awesome; I love your sense of humour! Just wondering what happened with the hand where there was 2 x Qc? Was the hand dead? I've never seen that!!!!
Hi Doug, would it not be an option for Vayo to bet the river to defend his hand knowing his opponent barrels a lot?
Just to let you know I don't just throw punches when you say looney toons nonsense, excellent analysis! WP
Wow 2:16 was intense. Also, is 4:02 an original mistake by ESPN or a tribute from Doug to Esfandiari's two 9s of clubs ?
Yea, while I was watching the heads up battle live, I kept wondering what your video analysis would be on many of these hands. _"Hm, what would Doug say about this hand? :-)"_
Hi Doug, what type of bronzer are you using? It look nice...
Has to be the best final heads up in the main event in the past 10 years!!
9:33 any thoughts on NG checking his cards on the river ?
Yan Kovalsky I think the snap jam is a more accurate tell.
he snap jammed when he made the Q high flush too
Thanks, I missed that!
Yes, people double checking their cards will almost never bluff, I think Qui knew it and did it on purpose to try to give the reverse tell, just in case... I might be wrong tho.
Great Polker hand. Nguyen got the heart of a lion. Vayo was so passive heads up it was painful to watch at times.
Doug, keep thee great content coming. and two Q Clubs... WTF!?
You should call yourself in this segment "Dougtor Polker.
I appreciate the analysis Doug and the lengths you go to explain the hand. However, I would like to put it more bluntly. Vayo played like a complete nit and this is an absolute CLEAR call in my opinion. Maybe I'm a fish, but I would most definitely be putting the cape on and saying 'fuck it.. call'. FFS your playing someone heads up who claims to be a professional baccarat player and you want to fold a hand as strong as this when he's representing such a narrow range of hands? I really would love for you to do a video explaining how this nit has been described as such a good player, and used to 'crush' online when he was a teen; i see nothing from his final table play that would suggest that.
I think the biggest thing for us small-time punters to wrap our heads around is the concept of blockers. While calling off the mid-pair 9 here seems suicidal, the Q blocker reduces the number of overpairs that villain is repping. That gives us much more reasonable showdown value. Multi-way, I'm folding; HU, I'll throw up in my mouth a little and call.
I think you're spot on on the GTO decision. Calling Q9 and folding 89 is a great way to balance; not certain it's optimal but you're a much better poker player than me so I'll take your word for it (is J9 a call then? it seems like the break point).
That said, there were hands earlier in the match where I felt like he should have called smaller river bets with Q/K high if for no other reason than to send a message that he won't be bluffed EVERY POT.
Those saying that a fold is reasonable clearly didn't watch the coverage. He knew every hand from 30 minutes before an older, and almost all of them were bluffs or bets with the best hand that were also bluffs (say, J8 "bluffing" 56 when neither pair). When your opponent is running you over and you flop top pair, good kicker, get this awesome of a runout AND under-rep your hand the whole way you HAVE to call. I know it's the ME, I know it's your tournament life, but there is no more laddering (which Vayo did phenomenally throughout the rest of the FT, btw), it's either win or Nguyen (rather proud of myself for that one).
BTW - you should really think of calling this "Polker Hands"... It has a nice ring to it.
100% agree with this. I don't know what the bottom of my calling range is but Q9 is such a slam dunk call against this player in this session it's not even close.
MrAndersonmm Q9 no clubs! Against a guys who probably overbluffs flush draws.. So sick to fold a 2:1 spot when in reality you might be good 80% of the time. 7figs equity up in flames ouch
hey doug! I know what the poker range chart looks like, but i dont visualize it during hands in tournaments, should i? would i become a better player if I visualize the chart while playing hands?
tom maginnis yeah! like the way i visualize it is going from A-2
+Alex G (CaptainG) play 1000 sit & gos ull be good.
You don't really have to visualize a hand chart to know what your range is in a given spot. I prefer counting out combos of hands I know I would play this way.
Hand charts easily give a wrong impression of how often you have a given hand in a spot because you have suited combos way more seldom than you have unsuited, and pocket pairs are in between :)
+Molteriet For a beginner best advise is to follow charts initially as a guideline then adjust with exp. In general shove wider than what the charts say.
Molteriet thanks for your advice! that;s kinda what i was asking about. I see a lot of pros using hand charts to study but i dont know if they actually visualize it during a hand or not haha
Qui Nguyen knew that Vayo would be playing by some sort of "the book" a la Tom Marchese and therefore threw "the book" out the window. Even though Vayo was the game theorist, former teen poker genius, etc., Nguyen has probably watched enough Alpha 8 to know what Vayo would be up to. Therefore, Nguyen took a page out of an older book and played his opponent, not his cards. He beat the shit out of Vayo and the heads-up match only lasted as long as it did because Vayo survived a number of all-ins. I'm no poker pro, but I do have three relatively small tournament victories to my name and I won two of them by hammering my heads-up opponent the whole time and just marveling as they folded time and time again, like Doyle Brunson talks about in Super System. So well done, Qui the Vegas Gambler! Sometimes things come full circle and the advantage is back in the court of the old school grinder instead of the teenage online whiz kid.
I like your pro analysis. But I believe Nguyen knew he checks back he's certain behind and giving the massive pot over !
The summary of , "Qui is an aggressive gambler in a racoon hat" is legendary lol
I think that vayo ei tj out a doubt was thinking that nguyen had jacks or better. I think if he at least min raised the flop, nguyen would most likely went away. Maybe if nguyen Re raises, vayo can tank fold, but I don't think nguyen would have done anything that funky with total air. Nguyen probabky knew the range vayo was in, meaning 1 pair and knew he wouldn't call his tournament off, especially after running him over for pretty much the whole time. Vayo seemed to be waiting on that 1 big Phil Helmuth hand that never came.
What was the ruling on QcQc hand? cant find full video
yo douggers why dont you call it Hand History Analysis and Review with Ph.D Doug Polk? I'm still on tilt about this fold btw
We call him Doctor Doug because he's always operatin'.
If you think your 9's are good to call the turn, what possible hand would the 5 on the river help Qui with?
If you thought you were good, why not bet the river 1/2 pot and if you get raised then so be it, but checking the river when a blank hits seems like giving up.
You didn't consider A3 clubs as a potential hand. Very probable given Vayo saw a similar play on the river when Nguyen rivered a flush
u sincerly looked disapointed in both haha loved it
Decent analysis. How would you "rate" a somehow blocker bet (20 M-ish) by Vayo on the river? A shove by Mr. Win over a bet like that would well be somehow impossible?
That's not a good bet, cos Qui would prolly find a shove, given he'd prolly see Vayo looking weak, making a bet like that.
Haha, thats why I ask Doug and not you.
I assure you Doug would dislike your weak blocker bet too.
Ah yeah, my bet, cause I played the WSOP FT, I 'member.
HI from uk,love your stuff @the minute doug LIKE a BOSS.
loved the video doug. i was playing lodden thinks with a friend and we bet on what you think the percentage of poker players all time are winning players. i have $100 riding on it so would love to hear back from you
2 q of clubs? Where was that? And what happened??
doug, but Qui Nguyen is never bluffing in this spot.
He was shoving 3rd pair for value? Then that makes Vayo's fold even worse.
Nooooo, he is always turning a pair into a bluff in this spot
Just watched Luke Scwartz make the call in same spot here against Romanello in an old premier lge game ,Genius or station ?
Maybe Qui saw Vayo look at his chips during the flop, right before he checked. This can be taken as a sign that Vayo wanted to bet with a 4 or 2 but passed the action to the aggressor. Qui recognizes this and trys to push him off the small pair with two barrels unsuccessfully. Then he binks a 5 on the river, double checks his cards to make sure he is qualified, thinks he is good, and shoves for value.
The only Pair Vayo Needed to actually make this a Great Head Up, was a " Pair of Balls" which he left back in his hotel room with is book POKER FOR DUMMIES 101!!!! Worst heads up ive ever seen!! I wish josephy wouldve gone headsup,!! He played excellent, just got sooo freaking unlucky with that set hand 222-333 againt Vayo the Gayo!! Well, Thats Poker!!!
What about J9? Is the J kicker strong enough to call? Just call J9’s without a club?
Another thing I dont get is that Vayo won the River at the Winstar about two months ago so he has to have some recent experience in headsup spots. I don't know what happened to him but he is not going to enjoy the coverage.
Very good video. Keep it up Doug.
Hey Doug did you have a good time in the DR?
When it's headsup, there is no icm effect. So all ranges are the same as in a cash game.
excellent analysis Doug
thank you for doing this :D
I don't agree with checking the river with the pair of fives. That five rarely changes anything against a player like Vayo. He has a nine so often here and he had been folding all night so pulling the trigger was the correct choice imo.
Doug you should breakdown Robl vs Matt Kirk
In fairness this is why, it is to tough to play out of position. It may sound like a brilliant thing to check and let an aggressive opponent bomb into you. But if he continue firing, its never comfortable, and certainly not with a hand like a pair of 9`s.
Glad vayo lost
Vayo isn't watching Nguyen betting. Nguyen is always looking at Vayo. Nguyen > Vayo.
tremendous analysis doug
Keep up the great work Doug!