Poker Hands With Doug Polk - Phil Galfond Faces Big Bluff By Billionaire
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- Опубликовано: 7 авг 2016
- Fearless businessman Bill Klein takes a remarkably aggressive line against internet legend Phil Galfond. Was it a good play, and will Phil look him up?
Poker Hands is a series in which Doug analyzes televised hands and shares his thoughts. New episodes are uploaded every Monday.
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Made a mistake guys, I think I thought the flop was KJ4, not KJ2. Pretend its a 4 with me and I will add a note to the video
Love your videos man! Keep em coming!
The flop was J92 dude :D
You also went in depth on What Galfond thinks Klein could bluff and listed some QsXs hands but Galfond holds the Qs so he's blocking those bluffs too, weighing Klein heavily into value
Hey Doug, may I get your thoughts on Galfond's raise sizing on the turn? I do believe it was way too small but I'd like to hear what you think please :)
Doug, don't know if this has been mentioned, but it is a very important thing to consider for constructing a range.
The first guy who bet out with AJ is very likely to have had a jack given the way the hand went down. That likely blocker info should be added to the formula for the range Phil is constructing. If the first guy has 75% of having a jack, the combos of j9, and j2 are much less likely. This info I believe makes the river a clear call for Phil.
Great analysis Doug. The thing that most impresses me about your videos is how respectful you are to all players, even pros who are often disparaged and recreational players. You give everyone credit for being a thinking player, and even if you disapprove of a play, you never speak ill of the player himself. Your good example is appreciated.
Love these type of videos, keep up the good work
I love these. Keep em up! Thanks!
Okay so Doug is making premium poker content unlike everyone else. A lot of poker players talk about giving back to the community and while a very small fraction do, Doug actually nails it. Bravo!
Very clear thinking and even an insight to his deciding to go against the high level analysis he understands all too well to send a message to his opponents creating a metagame that may be losing in the short run.
Great! So much valuable information, thank you!
havent even watched the vid yet but already know i want more of these!
Really surprised you didn't discuss Galfond's sizing on the turn. I feel like because Galfond raised so small on the turn, he should be calling river because Klein is more likely to call with all of the decent draws he can have in his wide defending range from the straddle. If he had gone with 75-80k (which seems better IMO) on the turn I think he can safely fold this river.
Yeah, turn sizing is the mistake from Galfond. River is basically a call only because he priced the bluffs in.
@@pahakuutti yes phil mentioned that he made a mistake counting how much was in the pot when he goes over this hand with joe ingram thus the wrong turn raise sizing
If phil didn't have the queen of spades, he would call.
He should’ve raised to $100k.
New to your channel. Loving the commentary and the breakdown. Being a micro stakes grinder I think I am learning from these videos. :-)
Excellent analysis Doug...loving these videos.
Not sure if you're taking suggestions, but I'd like to see an analysis of the hand you played against Negreanu in the one drop where you had 99. Also would like to see an analysis of the hand between Seiver and Hachem on the Big Game where he donk led into him on a paired board.
Great video! You're one of the few people that explains strategy in a really easy way to understand. Please keep these up. :)
15:45 was waiting for this the whole vid. The factor of "holy fucking shit look at the stakes we're playing" was key in this pot. This gets snapped off on 50NL+ online.
StillTrying2Help Why do you want to start an argument where there isn't one? So Phil Galfond can be bluffed off huge pots by donk betting big a river that pairs the board. I'm not an expert on gto but Phil folded the top of his range to a river donk bet, that's like GTO 1on1. He made a scared, clearly exploitable fold, end of story... 15:45
In my 1-2$ game straight would shove on the river instead of folding. Lol
Hey Doug nice vid, could you do some OtB's hands in the future, please?
nice video doug, very clear and get to follow logically.
Heya Doug. One thing I noticed is that Galfond is holding the Queen of spades, which again reduces the number of flush draw combos Klein can have on the river. You mentioned the possibility of Klein having Queen high flush draws so it looks like that got overlooked - just a bit of feedback. Love the channel, keep it up.
Was that Norm MacDonald?
y
Doug: whats up with youtube, feel like a lot of videos by you are hidden from your channel. are all videos by you available on your main channel? seem to find hidden gems like this one sometimes that i dont see otherwise. anyhoo, good job!
I think I would have put Klein on a house too. The way he came over the top of Croak's bet on the flop. Then continued to fire on the turn. The call on the turn after Galfond's re raise. Then, the 150K nonchalant bet ont he river after the boat came available.
The old veteran played the Aggro flush draw to perfection
I actually think Bill Klein played this hand very well. When Galfond raises turn he pretty much only had QT, where as Klein can have lots of boats, and he'd be playing 2 pair/ sets the exact same way. Klein has J9, 9s, 2s, KJ and MAYBE JJ (altho only 1 combo obv.)
Good play imo and fold is prob good too vs range/ player.
Hey Doug, you kept referring to the flopped two as a four later in the hand analysis.
Subbed. Maybe because it was a Phil Galfond vid lol
When Doug is talking about 44 and J4 im very confident he is mistaking the 2 on the board to be a 4 by the way so he actually means J2 and 22 (same thing really) just so nobody is confused over him talking about 4's.
Also he says the old guy can have Qx of spades but Galfond holds the Q of spades so blocks that hand.
I'm just pointing out the obvious with these two points - all in all a very good video probably made in a fairly short space of time so little mistakes understandable. Great video.
Your right
hey Doug can you do the hand Scott seiver vs Joe hachem from THE BIG GAME (Seiver was talking about crazy poker play with AE JONES and talks about the min bet, 3 bet and then immediately does it!). Thanks
AWESOME SHOW MAN!!
really like the Video, my question however is, wheter the boat is in galfonds range or not. i would say it definitely is, and if so, is the 150k bet from klein still this good?
klein's a beast...he's always making plays like that.
What Klein did is fairly common in PLO too. Both players will obviously have Broadway and you can "float" and represent stronger hands with the right action and run out.
It's hard when top players analyse hands without being a little results orientated. And I feel they have to say they'd probably station as you don't want players thinking they can bluff you. I liked the play- by- play analysis overall though. Good work.
Good video!
Please do a plo review or review your bluff against antonius at the aussie cashgame :D
Where can I find that? :D
Plz make a vid explain the sick bluff u pulled on PA in Aussie million super high roller cash game 2014
100% I will do something with that hand at some point.
+Doug Polk Ha Really looking forward to see it
@@TacoBully wheres the video
One thing I think got under the radar is that Bill is very active in terms of reading players' demeanors at the table. Particularly from the turn onward, he's constantly glancing over at Phil. At 9:30... Phil's expression is... pretty apprehensive of seeing the J on the river. Maybe this helped Klein pull the trigger on the bluff.
Also, really glad you're starting this segment. The only thing similar is The Poker Guys who are frankly terrible. It's great to have a real high stakes top player go through notable hands like this. Cheers Doug.
Can you try to do a PLO hand review? It can add something new to the table...
10:31 = "What else could you have called with" ?
A flush draw Phil, a flush draw ... ( with the thought to rep a House if the board pairs and he misses his flush )
but, to be fair, even Antonio ( 9:57 ) thought Bill had called the turn with a set and then done the old - "I have to bet for value now that I've hit my House, in case Phil checks back.
So Phil has to think "Did Bill call with a flush draw, or a scared set?
So, we must surmise, that both Phil and Antonio didn't think that Bill had it in him to donk the River with a missed Flush.
Oh Dear! - the Donked River is "always " a big hand!
Ha ha!
PS
I love these videos Mr Polk ( Doug, if I may? ) - absolutely brilliant!
This is the danger with "table image" when constructing ranges. People can play against their table image. Old people can run bluffs, young people can nit up.
While credit goes to Klein for pulling off an incredible bluff, a lot of credit goes to Galfond as well. Apart from the turn bet sizing, he played the hand perfectly, IMO. When Klein raises flop, he is truly representing sets and 2 pairs and that story continues till the river. So I actually think Galfond's fold is pretty brilliant. However, the main reason for some credit to Galfond is how he handles himself when (a) the Jack shows up on the river and (b) he gets shown a bluff. Both those things are bound to tilt 90% of the players but he handles himself with grace like the mild mannered guy that he is.
"hello everyone, my name is doug polk" hahahahahaha.
i feel sorry for people that missed this joke
lmao. I love your videos, Doug. But the word is 'Vulnerable' not 'Vernerable'. :P
This is the second time I've heard you say it. Had to point it out :)
yo doug, lower the intro volume a little in these :)
or make the mic louder
Galfond having the Q of spades in his hand is big in this hand since Galdond knows Klein can't have hands like AQ of spades or Qx of spades which does knocks out a handful of hands that Klein might be fluffing in the river. Also Galfond does have a 10 which makes klein less likely to have hands like 108, 107 or any 10x of spades that Klein was continuing on on this flop. Very tough call to make for Galdond since Klein does look like he has a boat like he is repping. Good hand to analyze and very good play by Klein. I think it's a good gold in the long run with this scenario.
Did you mean 2's when you were saying 4?
And J4 lol
2+2=4
he did mean 22's, 44's didn't make any sense
It all comes down on how often Klein semi bluffs his draws on the flop. His "realistic" value range is basically J9, 99, 22. (J2s: rather less) The third player actually slightly affects ranges: He folded either an (important) J, or (rather unlikely) a FD himself ( both strangely played, - and strong draws might not fold the turn... ) . In general, it ought to be ( with "standard" assumptions) a close call. However, Galfond perceived Klein (Final Table 2015 ! ) to be a nit - as seen, quite wrongly so.
Like patrik antonius hand:) BIG LIKE!
Hey Dougie fresh I got something for you.
1. The players were commenting that galfond might not have been looking at his cards pre when he made it 10k hence tight image not possible.
2. Galfond had the Q of spades 3. Deuces and 4s are not synonymous. I love your videos though.
Q of spades interesting, talk more about it
James Lourenco
The players were saying he was playing a style that would imply he'd make a 10k pre flop raise w out looking - hence he does not have a tight image - I messed up the way I said it but I'm contradicting an important point in his analysis.
Second thing is galfond holds the q of spades blocking the most obvious combo draw bluff so therefore the fold is easier. ... As an aside edit laak says " 10 k" and Klein says "does he even look" ... PG doesn't have a tight image but I did mess up the ore flop open
i would think its not goo to call a straight draw with a flush draw present. at least not 3 way when someone is more likely to have a flush drawn and shallower stacked im assuming cause the straddle
doug can u say how croak should play the flop? Overall, man keep doin this, GJ
Hey Doug, I love your videos, you're doing a great job man. I'd like to have your point of view on my analysis of this hand, that'd be great if you'll find the time to answer me; thanks in d'avance. Here we go: first, since Phil Galfond open-raising is quite wide (maybe 98 suited, 108 suited +, J8 suited +, Q8 suited +, K8 suited +, A3 suited +, J10 off +, Q10 off +, K10 off +, A7 off +, 66+) and I assume will be sticky against two non-professional players in position (he'll stay imo with pretty much all of his range, except maybe weak Ax unsuited and weak J and Q) raising AJ suited for value is the right play. Yes Croak might face some of the time a better hand but this represent such a very thin portion of Phil's range. On the flop, Croak open is very unusual and somewhat exploitable, better would have been a simple Check/call. The call of Klein is a bit wrong on the turn. River he only represents deuces full and Jacks full for value, and he still have many bluffs.
Klein can still have 105, 106, 108, 107, K10, A10 in some cases, A2-A8/9 of spades which represent 14 combos. The value only represents 9 combos. Phil's is given a good enough price and should call in my opinion.
Doug's suggested cutoff range is (22+,A2s+,K8s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,86s+,76s,65s,54s,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo)
no pro defends 90%+ of their open range from the cut-off, no pro folds A2s, but opens A9-A7o in the cutoff, and no pro is folding 55-22 either
With the range I listed above I could see him defending maybe 70%, folding AJo, ATo, KJo, KTo, QJo, QTo, JTo and K8s/Q8s/J8s with a 4bet range of something like QQ+, AK, A5s-A2s, and maybe some KQo
Calling with that much suited crap still seems unwise if the 3-bet is hefty enough. Also they're deep-stacked but there's a straddle so if they were 300 BB deep, it's like they're now 150 BB deep, so defending vs 3-bets wide is more risk for less reward.
you should have mentioned how it's fairly obvious croak had a jack with his lead/call on the flop and sigh/fold on the turn. There's so few combos of full houses Kline can have.. basically 22, J2s, J9s.
I don't think 99 is an automatic 3-bet for Kline preflop, but you make a really good point about Croak. His bad donk bet does scream a hand like AJ/KJ
Who's here after the Galfond challenge??
P.S. Doug, you've come a long way!
P.P.S. LFGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG
No mention of Galfond's sizing on turn??
Such a brilliant play by Klein because he knows Galfond is always raising sets on the flop so he cannot have a full house
Did phil not screw up the turn raise size?
thank god its not blocked
its pretty funny to see everyone saying its a clear call when they can see everyones hole cards and watch the action go down.
I love Doug’s commentary... always. But I must remind myself, and others.... there is a huge difference between commenting when you see the cards... and playing live when you don’t!! HUGE!! INSURMOUNTABLE DIFFERENCE!! To his credit, Doug does pretty damn well when he plays live. But keep his “observer comments” in perspective. That is all. See you girls at the felts!
If you play poker for a long time it's not hard to not let the opponents cards Influence your thoughts, the only real difference is simply keeping a clear head and remembering all the different things to think about in the moment
galfond have the Queen of spade blocker
lets get some plo content
Hey Doug, Wasn't Bill getting the correct direct pot odds on the turn? He's calling $40k into $160 with 20% equity. 4:1 == 4:1, no?
Surely holding the Qs makes Galfonds hand a fold.. surprised you didn't mention it?
Doug, don't you think that it's a call on the river for galfond, if he's repping QT than klein should always c/r his boats on the river, seeing as how galfond is always r/f the river with that straight?
Even more, with Klein's image people at that table will always be folding the straight on that river and after that action, making it
much more logical for a boat to c/r river
The only hands that are value hands that are going to be checked back on the river by phil are mostly cancelled out two pair and draws that are likely to try and bluff the river, so in no way does Klein's lead make any sense unless he thinks that Galfond wont be folding the sr8 on that river to a big bet...
Great video
I still see all the hands but KJ factoring out, and would call.
You definitely should do durrrrr's huge bluff vs Ivey. Very interesting what your thoughts are on both of them plays.
Hey Doug, great vids, but I think it would be better if you didn't talk like if you are following a script (you probably are), but you get it, try to be a bit more natural, overall, very good content, keep it up.
I don't think it's a script. That would be a long script. He's just trying to speak clearly and professionally. I have no problem with it.
I don't think it's a script. That would be a long script. He's just trying to speak clearly and professionally. I have no problem with it.
seems as if it's pretty natural to me. just think maybe he's slowing down speech to speak more clearly but not from a script.
yeah it seems fine for the most part, just giving my 2 cents and my personal opinion
Dawg fair enough
Klien's raise on the flop made Galfond believe Klien had 2 pair, I normally raise on the flop with 2 pair
Is Klein really getting close to direct odds? He is getting 3:1 on his call (unless I missed something), so he needs to be good 25%. But he can be fairly sure that only his flush outs are good here, so with 9 outs he has 18% equity. He might be getting some implied odds, but I don't think he's really getting much, since his flush drawout will be pretty obvious to Phil. As far as direct odds, unless I'm missing something, he definitely doesn't seem to have them.
I'd like 10% I'll still watch your great videos whatever
How good is norm macdonalds commentating here
Phil Galfond made a correct fold, even though Bill Klein played above the rim to make that bluff. In an overwhelming majority of cases, a tight elderly amateur taking that line would almost certainly have filled up on that river. Bill Klein though is a far better player than PG gave him credit for, otherwise he wouldnt be making second place on the big one for one drop with all the superstars in attendance.
Should've prolly ran your epic bluff on Galfond instead of Antonius, Doug ;)
10:42 He did not bet into 100k, there were 198k in the pot.
Je K nice comment
Also Klein might not even raise straight draw+ flush draw so have to take that into consideration. Obv he did but maybe he lost prev hand and was playing looser I dk.
I don't blame Galfold for folding. Klein is prob folding most draws on the turn. QT is out of the equation cause he would have 3bet the turn. Any K doesnt make sense cause he would not donk bet the river for value. KJ wouldnt raise the flop. Phil has Q of spades in his hand so that eliminates a lot of combo draws. Klein played this like J9, 22 and maybe 99. Only bluffs are Axs and maybe T8. Im assuming Klein doesnt play wild like durrr or isildur. Tough spot but it's fold imo.
2022
wouldn't amature go crazy on the turn with two pair or better?
isn't Glafond's turn raise too small ?? shouldn't it be like 110 k..??
very nice bluff mr Klein. Is it just me or does Bill Klein look like he's bluffing with his hand covering his mouth? :D
i think that's his default move, whether he's bluffing or value betting
nothing about phil's tiny sizing OTT?
Wonder if all this talk about him stationing this allways at higher stakes is som form of advertising
I think Phil should fold flop. bet and raise in front, he has a straight draw on a flush board. there are way better spots. and the donk bettor can sometimes have flopped sets so he can get 3 bet which sucks. after he does call and spikes the nuts on the turn his raise size is awful. he's laying 4 to 1. he polarized his range with his raise so he should be raising larger. which incidentally would have won him the pot, even if the rest of the hand plays the same. his turn raise gets called and board pairs and donk bet 3/4 now it's an easy call. because of the turn raise being larger, J9 can't have called, you know he doesn't have KK because of preflop, why would KJ raise the flop? J2 seems unlikely, so it's either deuces full or the numerous flush draws which missed. Phil galfond outplayed himself here.
Very unlikely Klein has a boat. Croak clearly leading out on flop protecting his J means it less likely Klein holds J9 & even if he does he's not calling Galfonds reraise on the turn with a J9 holding. When Klein leads the turn this is crucial because as Galfond has called 2 bets ahead of him on the flop it's highly likely that he holds Q 10 & Klein knows this as he's (Klein) a very clever player.Klein would not have led the turn had he flopped a set but would have checked called any turn bet hoping for a paired board being aware that Galfond very likely has turned a straight. Klein has to lead on the river whether he's bluffing or not which makes the call a bit harder but I'm pretty sure I would be calling there as Kleins most likely holding is some type of missed draw. It's very hard for Klein to have 99 or 22 there & JJ can be almost certainly eliminated ( Croaks lead) as can J9( by calling Galfonds turn raise).
Good observation about the card removal due the Croak leading, with this in mind I think it should be a call, even with Galfond holding the Qs (otherwise, without the Qs, I think Galfond probably would call anyway).
Klein knows Galfond almost certainly has Q 10 & is raising the turn to protect from the flush draw. He also knows the other guy must have led the flop with a J so if Klein did indeed have J9 he would have 3 outs only on the river & would therefore be unable to call Galfonds raised turn bet.
I think against a amateur this is a call. It is likely he has hand like aj jq and j10 and played it this way. If he had set, jk or j9 , he probably have reraised you on the turn. But again it is a close call.
Even deep stacked, isnt it kinda fishy to overcall a raise with a draw ? Wondered about that the first time i saw that hand and especially that Galfond did that.
He doesn't close the action, the initial better still can raise, he has only 6 instead of 8 nut outs, meaning also reverse implied odds against possible flush that come with Ks or 8s.
Also kinda face up that he is drawing and difficult to get paid off maximum on later streets, so to me this call looks strong -ev ? How can this call be justified ?
I wonder if Galfond's raise could've been a bit bigger here. Maybe raising 15-20k more than what he did.
at 6:28 it says Galfond has 75% and kleine has 18%. but that is 103% total...?
That's 93%. And the remaining 7% is for the split with a Q on the river.
***** but it should be 100% total right?
Obviously. And it is; 75+18+7=100
***** oh yes you're right
Rip norm Macdonald!
i think galfond is more a plo player than a nlh player....or at least at that time...i think most of the other players usually played on poker after dark/ HSP they would' ve made that call...
People donking, making bad calls, catching a lucky river then just blind bluffing and winning is tilt city to watch.
Now I remember why I stopped watching HSP back in the day. Damn that announcer is horrible (Not Doug, the other guy.) =P
How many value hands can klein really have here? JJ,99,KK would most likely 3 bet preflop... leaves us with 9 combos of J9, and 3 combos of 22(which he may decide to 3bet pre) - so 12 or so combos of value hands....
6 combos J9
pretty sure there is 9 combos J9 he can have care to explain?
oops nvm lol it is 6
East for me to say but I think it's a bad fold. if I am wrong tell me why otherwise what your video says.
RIP norm
A jack is « vernerable »
easy fold for galfond with the Qs in his hand he blocks many to combos that could be bluffing here
you choosing the best ones what to do you think of the commentary
Antonio is great
Phil blocks Qxss bluffs. maybe thats one of the reasons he folded
He obviously has pocket twos
please pick a phil hellmuth hand
I dont understand the min raise from PG on the turn..why not just shove on him and make him pay to see the spade
hes never calling off with a draw and T high
also shoving the turn makes his hand look extremely face up or polarized, i guess both?
2023