WHAT IS MATT BERKEY THINKING?!
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- Опубликовано: 28 янв 2019
- In this edition of The Berkey Files, our intrepid hero is making a very deep run in the Pokerstars PCA Main Event. With more than $1.5 million up top, this is a career defining moment. In this crucial hand, he's up against WSOP bracelet winner Tommy Nguyen. Facing a small river bet, on one of poker's biggest stages, can Matt solve for how to not fold a full house?
Take your game to the next level with elite poker training at Upswing Poker: upswingpoker.com/
Subscribe for more wsop vlog, news, comedy, and hand breakdowns. Poker Hands is the show where Doug analyzes live poker hands from tv poker shows such as Poker After Dark, EPT (European Poker Tour), High Stakes Poker, the World Series of Poker (WSOP), the Aussie Millions, WPT (World Poker Tour) the Big One For One Drop, and the PCA (Pokerstars Carribean Adventure). He especially enjoys reviewing hands by popular high stakes pros like Viktor "Isildur" Blom, Fedor Holz, Dan Cates (Jungleman), Tom "Durrrr" Dwan, Phil Hellmuth, Phil Ivey, and Daniel Negreanu. 
Игры
It's 2023 and Doug still loves Berkey so much.
Yup!🤣🤣
He's the gift that keeps giving
Berkey should go all-in in the turn, when the pot has 265k. After Nguyen's 85k bet, Matt has 466k left. If his rival holds AA, KK, AK, or (unlikely) A9, its a cooler; but he must shove with that remaining stack 😎
Glad they’re friends now
who doesnt love berkey
PCA Players: “Did you hear about that lady who made the sick fold with a boat in the $25k?”
Berkey: “Hold my beer.”
Lmao
the lady's fold was way more ridiculous than this haha
"I might even get videos made of how good of a player I am for the hero fold!"
Bad news for ya bud...
@Mike S Yeah it was insane but it logically could've been a possibility. Here, it's really hard to arrive to the same conclusion
She made a great fold. Here, once Berkey decides opp. has an ace in his hand, with 2 spades on flop and 2 aces on board, he's off the rails. Commentators are wrong. Berkey's wrong. Flush draw is more likely than Ace in that guy's hand or KK (wth?!?) etc. They all go far wrong.
Finally, he wasn't put to a decision for all his stack. Had he called and been wrong, he'd still have 20 bigs left.
He’s thinking, “Why is my head so small when my body is so big?”
lol
bro i actually laughed and had to comment. LMAO
Doug I always fold my fullhouses on the river even when my opponent checks and shows 5 high. How can I get better at poker
Coming back to these videos after all this time and all the memes… it is really astonishing how good the breakdown is. If you pay close attention he’s really instructive beyond the current hand. He drops knowledge of what is worth thinking about in different spots. For example when he points out that you might want to bet all your hands on this flop. This isn’t something that’s intuitive to amateurs like me and it gets me thinking. Really great stuff!
There is nobody better at explaining poker than Polk
He does this on all his vids
I want my 3995 dollars back.
I think in spots like this you have to think about what your opponent thinks you have or what your image is this hand. In hands where you are either calling or folding, it's easy to sidetrack yourself into thinking about all the good hands ur opponent could have here like JJ, AJ, AK, A9, KK and not really think ur opponent would bet into u with worse and make a bad fold. From Nguyen's perspective, Berkey has an Ace which he raised on the flop and called turn and is now scared on the river, the ace is probably smaller also since Berkey checked the turn after raising the flop. Since Berkey played his hand like an ace, I don't see how you ever fold a boat here because ur literally beyond ur best hand when u take this line. I'm now realizing how much I've learned from watching Doug videos.
Lol at Chino: “I ain’t gonna lie Tom, I woulda paid you off. I like to sleep good at night.”😂
watching dougs poker channel is like having a gf that has irregular periods. your waiting for a new video then after a while you really start to think he mightve gotten pregnant. then the video finally comes and your like oh ok cool.
Lmao this made me laugh out loud
@Blockchain Tech Would be a bitcoin guy who's gotta ruin the fun with an ill-advised response
I sea what you did they're
Lol 😂
Guess Vanessa Got Pregnant 🤰
Folding on the flop would have saved him 💰. Too easy for opponent to have quads here.
He has spent too much time on Pokerstars.
Of course folding wouldve been east but they bet weak, no action and he just made the choice to fuck up lol #FACTS #TRUESTORY #REALTALK
Ain't no one folding 99 on weak beta and to flop or hit quads is almost impossible but still relevant but he played that hand so bad Doug had to make fun of his ass lol
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Lol, you are right!
I would never fold that full house!!
Probably that’s why I have been losing many tournaments, because I find it so hard to fold to them son of a b*tchs when they trying to bluff me!!
I just go ahead and jam!! “All in” son b*tchs!
the surprised look on Nguyen face hahaha
Glad you covered this hand I was watching live and for sure wanted more analysis
Parkour!
Same and I knew Doug would do a vlog about it sooner or later as soon as he mucked.
Doug should do analysis on your awesome degen PARKOUR!
PS Joey is a mush.
"That dog looks like shit"
Hahah parkour hands with Doug
Since I read this in your voice I can’t tell if this comment is sarcastic or not
“if you’re interested in learning how to not fold full houses” HAHAHAHA
What a god awful fold. He under-repped his hand on the turn and river so of course the other guy can be bluffing or value betting worse.
Exactly! He set a trap and the guy stepped in it and then he didn't close the trap. Did he forget his own strategy? What the heck happened.
Ya, I don’t know why he thought “I can only beat KQs and Q10s”. First, I don’t know if he would bet KQs on the turn; I think you should probably be checking that hand on the turn-Not only do you only lose to an ace, but if he has a flush draw, you want him to make it. And if he doesn’t have that, the only hand he’s likely calling with is an Ace. So, why not check…
So that leaves Q10s …
But, Berkey’s hand looks like it has to be either Ace-rag, or KsXs.
So, of course the guy is gonna bet a flush. And there are a ton of combos for that. Plus, I think those spade combos with no showdown value seem likely to bet the turn after getting checked to; Especially since it looks like Berkey was just giving up on the turn.
Great vlog yet again! Keep up the good work. Best poker channel on RUclips.
chris kramer don’t think this is a Vlog! But it’s a good video
It's just v. No log.
Well since I believe he is logging someone's hand and it is a video. Well it would be considered a vlog.
brown nose
chris kramer Does Dougie have any polyps he should be concerned about?
Prime example to me of overthinking . Over calculating. And thinking you know way too much and or way more than your opponent
"If you're interest on how to not fold full houses, go to upswingpoker.com" Best advert of 2k19
Step 1. Make a full house
Step 2. Do not fold
Luke, I think I need a more in depth analysis on how that is done.
First thing I said watching this live, "oh man, dougs going to love this one" haha
Got this in my recommended today, what a timing
Doug Polk , I don't need to boost your ego but, I am a none poker player in my 50's, I really enjoy your persona and your channel. The enthusiastic way of describing the game. I have been a poker fan from the Daniel, Ivey and yes Hellmuth beginning days.. Thank you for the vlog
I had played Nguyen at the deepstack in Vegas in 2010. So happy to see him on TV.
How much does the "never fold a full house" module cost?
its free
bout tree fiddy
T175K
Free.99
$500 a month
I am preparing for my first ever "big" money poker tournament. The tips I have gotten from your videos have been golden. I've learned so much from you! Thank you very much!
I'm pumped!
Results?
Subscribing to your RUclips channel has been one of the best decisions I've made in the past couple months lol. Your content is the perfect balance of quality production; it's very funny, educational, and completely engaging. The poker community will suffer a great loss when (or if) you retire. Thank you so much for the laughs, and for the lessons.
Sincerely,
A scrub trying to git gud
12:15 mark....the main point Doug makes here is gold imo and overlooked by Berkey here for sure. This may be one of the biggest nuggets for tough river spots with strong hands that are reasonably vulnerable.
Yo Doug, I am a new viewer (3 weeks) and fairly new poker enthusiast (1 year) 9 years younger than you, just wanted to say, I thoroughly enjoy your vids and I can't wait for the next one!
Yoooo! That sign off was hilarious!!! your a savage 🤣🤣🤣🤣
Lookin' fresh Doug. Thanks for the content! Keep it coming.
Hahahah Nguyens face when he was taking the pot after Matt said he only beats Q10 spades..... he was like "Jesus I was bluffing?!?"
Great to see you back doug!
Great stuff! Could you also discuss what bet sizing you would like in the next vids?
hey doug, love your videos.
what do you think nguyen should be KXs and QXs bottom range in that position that he's got alot of chips and can apply preasure?
i ask it because i think that the answer is in that precived range of nguyen's bottoms KXs QXs.
besauce i think that from the action it's very hard to find bluffs in nguyen range, and he can't also bet thin for value hand like 78ss,65ss.. because that's what he's try to get value from by the river, because matt can't call any AX hand that are not boats (and it's not sure that matts call hand like 78ss in the turn)
so i think nguyen bottom range for value vs good player should be QXss. so this is nguyen's precived range from my state of view -
KK,AKs,A9s,KsQs,AdJd,KsTs,QsTs,Ks8s,Qs8s,Ks7s,Ks6s,Ks5s,AKo,AdJh,AcJh
assuming that nguyen not bet all his AJ in the turn (thing that actually increase matt's equity in the river) matt got 38% equity. meaning that matt got an easy call.
but if it's another player that has to open thighter and fold hands like Q8s, K8s (that also block some of matt's calling range in the river if he calls turn with 78ss) it seems that matt should fold (if it's very hard to find bluffs)
because then his equity drops to 18.8% against this range -
KK,AKs,A9s,KsQs,AdJd,KsTs,QsTs,AKo,AdJh,AcJh
and his break even call is 24%.
what do you think about that doug?
is there any parts of that equation i'm missing?
will be happy to know what you think about that,
thanks, and keep making thoese great videos,
guy.
Love Chino getting in a little commentary on the hand at the end. "I'd have to pay you off, I like to sleep at night... That's why Berkey's the best"......ROFL
Folding 99 here means you are folding 100% of hands here. Can’t imagine ever folding the best hand in my range.
Great video Doug definetly on your A game on this as is the norm. Thanks for the video.
It’s cool that you created such a cool community! Just missing you in poker games 💔
Doug man that's exceptional content. Thanks
if your not check shoving the turn then be prepared to call a value bet on the more dramatic river card. going to the river, means you've decided to let a card hit that adds hands to the beat me column. your opponent is betting every hand including missed against your check on the river. end the drama on the turn and take the chip gain.
Check shoving that specific turn is absolute suicide. But yes he needs to be calling the river.
The description is amazing. Can Matt solve for how to not fold a full house?
Nice video! Would love to see you analyze the KT vs QT hand as well.
I tend to do this. When I make a better than average hand, I assume my opponent MUST have a hand with similar strength if he's making strong plays. I'm learning to think about the entire range that he could be betting for value, and also what he might think I have.
keep em coming man
knew this one was coming , my God.
Nice work Doug! TY
Yes! More Truth about my favorite game ever. God bless your success brother
I don't think it's as bad of a fold as everyone is making it seem.
1)There are way more full house combos then flushes when the guy is raising from UTG+1
2)Berkey probably realizes based on sizing and the way the hand went down that it's never a bluff (what can he be bluffing with 7-8 hearts? after betting flop and calling a check raise then barrelling turn & river. No chance
3)As for flushes: the K-Q or K-10 spades will most likely check the turn. So that leaves Q-10 spades. Pretty much the 1 value bet he beats as played. Yes sometimes he might have 10-8 spades or some other small flush but those are less likely since he raised from UTG+1. Also, you don't expect him to bet all his flushes on that board because he has to be legit worried about a full house or bigger flush. IMO it turned out to be a bad lay down in this specific hand but I think it might actually be +EV in the long run. Berkey is no dummy.
Totally agree! Also, the 9s was on the board so Nguyen can't even be valueowning himself with that combo
@@ScottHedley yeah sorry meant to say 10-8 spades. Thanks for pointing that out. Just corrected it.
@@kcc1762 I posted a comment on here 24 minutes ago stating my thoughts on the hand (very similar to yours).
its an awful fold
But, it was a bluff, lol...
Watching this after the 99 vs q10 Polker episode with Dan Coleman.
I think one of the things that wasn't talked about is the hand Berkey would have defended the BB with. I think he would have flatted A2-A5 suited as a standard defend against an early position raise. 22 through 88 would have defended and all of those hands would have check raised the flop. So I agree with Doug that while Matt Berkey had the lowest possible full house he was ever going to have... he was significantly ahead of the early position opening range based on that run out.
nguyens mouth is tiny LOL
im fuckin dead
And dry. And purple.
All Nguyens are handsome, tbh
You suck at being a good person.
wonder how hard it is for him to eat dog with that tiny mouth
the end was savage :D
Like a circle in a spiral, like a wheel within a wheel
Never ending or beginning on an ever spinning reel,
Like a snowball down a mountain, or a carnival balloon,
Like a carousel that's turning running rings around the moon,
Like a clock whose hands are sweeping past the minutes of its face,
And the world is like an apple whirling silently in space,
Like the circles that you find in Matt Berkey's poker mind.
Yo, where you at Doug? Started watching your videos right when you stopped. Forgot about ya
Remember when Doug Polk made youtube videos?
The Berk did himself in with his own attempt at trapping. That helped induce Nguyen to bet more aggressively. That helped Berk decide that his hand was beat.
His trap worked and then he forgot he set it.
Berkely's c raise on the flop was great, and that's what makes his river fold so awful.
"They just always have it" "GTO is for morons"
Great video sir, thank you.
How exactly do you fold when the flush hits? I can understand making a super tight fold to an off suit jack, depending on the tournament situation, but to assume he is not going to bet a flush there is ridiculous..
How many flush combos does Nguyen realistically have here? He opened +1. I think this is the only combo he shows up with. KsXs is checking the turn usually I think. Js and 9s are on the board. I think this is a good fold.
Just revisiting this 4 years later....
If Berkey can get suckers to pay him $4k for poker “coaching” props to him.
Hi Doug, I understand that raising 99 here is good since Berkey doesnt block an A. My issue is which hands we can use as bluffs? Just seems like raising a flushdraw gets pretty awkward, so would you balance here by raising QJ of hearts, blocking AQ, AJ and having backdoors?
Duh
Xr a low fd is fine, or a hand like 22 or 33. Basically some hand that can improve vs continues
Be quite cool if you did a video review of 'The Professor, the Banker, and the Suicide King: Inside the Richest Poker Game of All Time'.
Just would be interesting to get your heads up knowledge of how the game went down, and if either side made any mistakes.
Okay, I have to ask, I see some tournament players on their phones during play, what are these players doing on their cell phones? Calculating odds? Checking the stock market? Are there limitations as to what you can do at the table with an electronic device?
Hi, Mr. Polk! May i recommend a hand analysis on Calacanis vs Negreanu?
I remember i was watching that poker .. that guy going oooohhh daddy. I was like what the fuck... but to see doug polk edited it with the tom dwans face. I literally nearly pissed myself laughing
It's hard to critic his play in this situation only because of the perceptive opening range. Most people that late in a tourney are not going to be opening Q10 suited from EP, so he is definitely putting him on AX. A bigger boat is way more obvious here. That being said I would never have folded because even if he loses the pot he is still in the tournament. Yes very short stacked but still.
Ay yo, poker gangster back on the hands
LMAO at seeing a DNegs ad on a Doug Polk video
Sometimes you just have to go broke
Dont really like the turn check. Think you should barrel small. Especially with the 2 fd.
There's only 3 - 5 combos of flushes that got there really (kq k10 q10 87 76 - the last 2 are iffy and some people fold these but on a 100 or so bb - you may wanna include 56ss in there too tbh).
Ak - 6 combos.
Aj - 6 combos.
a9 - 1 combo
kk - 3 combos.
Other ax probably check the river given the action.
In the end, it's still a call (5 combos vs 16 - you are getting the correct odds to call but ICM etc - ceebs checking the other players' stacks etc). But not as bad as you think
You forgot AA and it's 2 combos of A9 (which you counted in your final tally) so it's 17 value combos total. I think most would agree that the king high combos should very often check the turn. If we are generous and say he bets those combos 50% of the time that makes it 17 value combos vs 4 bluff combos (by your reasoning). This would make it a fold. Additionally, Berkey is gonna have all the AJ and A9 here so he does have better hands to call with. Now maybe we can argue that his opponent is playing aggressive and opening 87 of spades or 67 of spades as you have but he shouldn't be betting the river vs Berkey's range with those holdings. I mean, what is he hoping for? He'd have to think Berkey was checkraising this flop with some Ax combo that decided to get sticky on a terrible run out. I think Berkey gave more thought to this hand than Doug has (not surprising given that he was in the spot and Doug wasn't). Good, tough fold imo. Made more so because he did it on TV where he has to know he will look foolish if he's wrong.
Hey Doug! If jungleman would make a challenge like Tom Dwan did a long time ago with the same rules would you play against him if you would get an offer? Love your content. Best regards.
Hei, Doug. Can't it be the case that there are too many hands that beats mine while too few that I beat?
There are some ranges computations to do before calling every time the opponent may be betting a worse hand.
Love this series the Berkey Files! He plays so goofy wonder when he’s going to go broke
Lol @ the Irony of watching Daniel Negreanu commercials on a DP video. More Rake More Better...
NEVER miss an episode of The B-Files!
I remember watching this live....such a bad fold smfh
He Berkeyed himself.
Lol this popped up in my recommended today
If add up all the combos of value that beat you and all the combos of value that he bets that you beat plus bluff combos and even a couple airball bluff combos given the action. Even with a really good price I think its about a 50/50. Either way there is a ton of possible combinations for both players on this board which makes it very difficult to make correct decisions.
Make hero calls, not hero folds. Unless the guy is 100% pure nit.
Well 99 should not be checked often on the turn and XR if so, but thinking QTs is a good river valuebet is very silly considering number of value and bluffs UTG+1 can possibly have here. As played, Xfolding 99 on the river is not that bad because we are looking at ~17 possible full house or better combinations , maybe 3 flush combos if villain plays incorrectly and some players simply wont find enough bluffs here to justify our call.
Hi I was wondering if anyone could give me some advice on continuation betting / checking range. Say you are in a situation where you do not want to continuation bet with every hand and want to develop a check range. What kind of strong hands would be good to put into the check range and which should be kept in the continuation betting range to keep them balanced? I know it depends a lot on the texture of the board but I was just hoping for some general advice. Also if you are out of position is it better to just c-bet your whole range? I posed this question on Doug's channel cause I figured people here would be able to answer this (or the off chance Doug himself decides to answer)
Barring detailed info, top pair (Q, K, or A) with weak kicker on a dryish board makes a good hand to check to protect your checking range.
2:05 They have to make a gif out of this lol
a video from doug ?!!?! yeeee
Doug, I don't know if you ever addressed this hand, but what did you think of Selbst's call vs Baumann in the main event, and how would you have played it?
It's just an insane cooler, everyone is and should be going broke in that spot.
why did you stop uploading videos?
Just curious why Berkey wouldn't shove on the turn in this case?
@ doug polk: please make videos about high stakes poker season 3,4,5,6!! your poker chanel is the best on youtube!! KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK!! THX FOR YOUR THOUGHTS AND POKER ADVICES!! GREAT!!!!
Lol great intro lol
Does Berks teach people how to fold the winning hand on his training site?
man doug you seem to know your b ball. you should do some sports talk. I heard you talking about James vs Jordan and i think you were bang on
You got to analyze Hank's trip kings fold vs Heisenberg. Please.
block 6 in the upswing course syllabus : how not to fold full houses ; course length , 5 seconds
Can someone help me
What advantages does having the button do? I've searched RUclips and I haven't found a video
Last to act. Your opponents must act first. You get information first
@@AdamTrupish great thanks
Four years later, Doug's still ragging on the Berks :D
Distribution says call: yes you can have better boats OTR, but you will neither play all your AJ, nore all your A9 this way to the river.
So 99s full might not be the very top of your range, be should be good enough to call with 3/1
Can someone explain why KQs or Kxs will check the turn here and Q10s would raise? Got lost there
That Nguyen guys must be pretty good if he got Berkey to fold what is probably the strongest hand he can have on that run out.
Another amazing video from Doug. I love it👍. I like to watch PCA one of the best live poker tournaments.
Me to have some PCA videos in my channel.
Great breakdown, Doug. Completely agree. The part about this hand that infuriates me the most is that Berkey can call and still have over 20 bigs IF he's wrong. You play the hand weirdly, so Nguyen has no idea where you're at, and then fold for a value bet on the river?? Sure our opponent can have AK or AJ, but he can have so many more hands that we beat. It's a TERRIBLE fold. First guessing. Second guessing. Last guessing.
So many hands that bluff, i hope you can name me at least 5 combos he beats because i dont see it.
@@MBMASTR QTss, KTss, and easily 3 combos of bluffs. The real question is, what is he calling with? A9? Granted, it's a tough run out, but there's only 3 combos KK, 1 combo A9s and 6 combos of AK that beat him, so he doesn't even need 5 combos, he needs 3 since he's getting more than 3:1. Hell, he's almost getting even money to beat value bets, he's close to the top of his range, so meh. I guess villain never floats this flop raise and double barrels when checked to.
now when you say infuriated, do you still mean that off a poker hand that you had no part in whatsoever? Just wanna make sure.
Doug said it himself, value betting this flush is on the thin side. Other than a couple of Qx and Kx of spades combos,
what are these "so many more hands that we beat"? (Kx of spades is checking back turn the majority of the time also)
I agree with you ilove, but one also has to consider the context of this hand. Nguyen was playing great at this time of the tournament and he might even have been the chip leader. Everyone at the table was scared of him by the time this hand was played. So Doug's comments fall into the same category as his "never fold trips" video he had earlier on his channel. I am not a good enough player to be critical, and I agree with the never fold trips or boat conclusion. I just remember the atmosphere at the table at this time was very much in Nguyen's favor and it would be very hard to go against him.
On the other hand, at the time, I felt Berkey should have been more aggressive on the turn to find out where he was at. He could have popped a value bet or a small re-raise with very little risk. Tommy would have had to fold the four flush. Berkey slow playing the turn was his downfall.