When Will The Winds of Winter Be Released?
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- Опубликовано: 4 июн 2024
- It's a question that's as old as time by this point. Join me as we try to pinpoint when exactly George R.R. Martin will finally release the fabled sixth novel in the A Song of Ice and Fire Series, The Winds of Winter!
0:00 Introduction
0:54 Optimism in the Fanbase
1:57 What Do I Think?
4:49 Best Case Scenario
7:40 Mathing Release Dates
11:52 Final Thoughts
Music by Scott Buckley - released under CC-BY 4.0. www.scottbuckley.com.au
All images belong to their respective owners. Images used under fair use.
#GeorgeRRMartin #ASongOfIceAndFire #GameOfThrones #WindsOfWinter 
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Do you agree with my assessment? Let me know when you guys think The Winds of Winter will be released!
tomorrow. i think it will be released tomorrow
@@MasterMote well it's either tommorow or "When the sun rises in the west and sets in the east. When the seas go dry and mountains blow in the wind like leaves. When your womb quickens again, and you bear a living child. Then the Winds will release, and not before"
@@Wolltazar and i shall remind you of the words of house Stark "winter is coming"!
@@MasterMote it is, but like in Westeros, nobody really knows if it’s in a month or a decade
If you want to read this book, you'll need to write it yourself!!!
2040: George R. R. Martin promises he's still working on Winds of Winter despite being dead for 10 years
I suppose we can also conclude that "A Dream of Spring" will forever be just that: a dream
100% :-( At this point, it is a fact. Unless GRRM will designate an heir or a group of heirs in his last will to finish the ADoS.
My take is, if a worldwide pandemic and numerous lockdowns couldn't help George finish winds, then he never will. We can only hope he has sufficient works and notes for another nominated author to finish the series. (Hope I'm wrong).
We probably needed 3 pandemics, as horrible as that sounds, before George would even get close to completing the book
Not likely to ever happen. According to George he has explicit instructions for his estate that would block anyone from finishing his books.
@@coreyhamby2989
I really hope he shifts on that before he dies. It really wouldn’t be cool to shit on millions of people like that.
@@coreyhamby2989 I believe those laws are only for like 80 years or so, just like the first disney movies are getting public property somewhere around this time.
@@sanderkoekkoek9866only 80 years? We'll all be dead by then who cares😭
A day May come,when the procrastination of george fails,when he will forsake his lazyness and break all bounds of delay. But NOT THIS DAY
Some day... but not this day indeed 😭 Thanks for watching by the way!
An hour of wolves and shattered shields when the age of the Lannisters come crashing down....BUT IT IS NOT THIS DAY..
This day he sleeps!!
By all the Old Gods and New that you hold dear, I Bid You
RISE! GEORGE OF THE WEST!!
A day may come when you must forsake bad grammar and spelling for good.
I know this is a joke but TWOW delay reason is anything but for procrastinating and laziness.
GRRM been working on a tons of projects and novels and shows and movies other than TWOW. plus he dosent owe us to finish the books, we don't deserve it. It's his works and his life.
@@xvor_tex8577exactly, george set a standard for himself of near perfection. People should see his writing process that can be found on the internet, he rewrites a ton until he is content with it. Laziness would be to simply write whatever to simply get done with it as early as possible (like d&d).
12:22 - This is such a good point that most overlook. Creative writing can't be measured with math. Martin could knock out the remaining pages in a day, a weekend, or a week (or not at all). He could decide what he has written so far is garbage and scrap it all. The progress updates are helpful but the best thing would be a completed book.
This is such a load of crap. Fans have been waiting on George R.R. Martin to finish this book for over 10 years and all we get is the creative process can't be measure with math? How about with money then? Like paying someone or a few people to finish the book for him, he can review/advise their work, and even if it's not 100% the way he would have done it, he knows he must publish it for the fans and then repeat the same process for a Dream of Spring. It's pretty clear by now that he rather be working on everything else, but The Winds of Winter and even if he is working on it everyday, why the hell hasn't his editor told him to wrap it up five years ago? If he's in a perpetual loop of writing, revising and rewriting then the book will never come out, especially if he's not doing anything to improve his very flawed process.
Kevin! Love your vids man!
Yes and no, math cannot measure creative writing but can predict it based on past trends. But people change and past trends may not apply anymore, especially in this case.
@@hyperyami396 Kevin's saying that creativity doesn't work at a constant rate, not that George's current rate of progress isn't ridiculous (which it is). I've had days I could pound out 5,000 words on one story and still be ready to tackle all my minor projects afterward. I've also had days I couldn't write a single paragraph except on one really minor side project. But if I tell you I'm writing a book, you can count on me having at least a first draft done within the year. The exact speed may vary from day to day, but a writer should be able to tell you how long a long-term project is likely to take.
@@ceinwenchandler4716 Ok, thanks for the clarification.
It has been 4,433 days since A Dance with Dragons was published, or 12 years, 1 month, and 22 days.
Yeah it’s been a long long time since Dance. I wanted to base the calculation in this video on something concrete though like his quarter of the way update, but yeah it’s been forever
I would wager that it'll be out by the beginning of 2026, but what really concerns me is the likelihood of A Dream of Spring ever releasing
Then you will say 2030 when 2026 arrives.
ADoS will never be released.
22 years waiting on 1 book 😅.
People have been born, grew up, and possibly finished college and had kids before he wrote one book 😂
Basically what I got from this video is that GRRM couldn't care less. Tons of other great book series and we shouldn't be in an emotionally abusive relationship with someone that doesn't care about us enough to at least write 1 paragraph a day. Great video, liked and subbed.
Thanks man! And yes, that is essentially the tl;dw version 😅
‘doesnt care about us’ He doesnt know you and he doesn’t owe you or most of his fans anything.
@@user-ys8bu1li1r george RR martin is deeply unserious. This man just needs to admit that he sucks and will never finish his series. sure, he doesn't owe his fans anything I will give you that. he also needs to admit that he has given up
@@user-ys8bu1li1r Actually he does owe us what he promised. A writer with no word is a pathetic thing.
@@gizzardgizzard3583 stringing people along and ‘leading them on’ so to speak is definitely shitty behaviour to be fair
Sad part is George is going die. And we’re never going to get a full story. And that’s a horrible shame. Because this story is so so good.
no
We're all going to die
I loved the TV show for the most part and I've always been an advocate that books are generally better than their TV or movie counterparts but i don't know if I want to put the time into reading such a long series to never have it finished
@@97ajg I don’t disagree. However the books what we received so far is very good. Far beyond what the show gave us. I would still recommend anyone to read them if your a fan of Fantasy.
Maybe he’ll surprise us
What do we say to the God of Finishing Books? - Not today! :D
Not today! 🥲
A Dream of Spring will not be as complex and important to the story as Winds of Winter. It will most likely serve as one big ending to all the characters in the series. Therefore I believe that he will be able to write it faster than the current book. He will be focusing mostly on wrapping up the story as a whole then maneuvering through complex story and character arcs in the next book after Winds of Winter. It took 17 years for JRR Tolkien to write the whole of Lord of the Rings and that isn’t even half as complex as A Song of Ice and Fire. George RR Martin has given every indication that he intends to finish the series and just like other fantasy writers before him I believe that he has the ability to make it happen in the next few years.
If he's nearing the finish line, he might be quiet about it, so that he could surprise the fans with the book. That's what I would do. Wishful thinking, I know.
I just want winds, we don’t even need a dream of spring, I still got pstd from the show ending, but winds would be greatly appreciated if it finally gets released
It would be really interesting to see how far away the show writers got from George’s original vision. I agree though, Dream is a pipe dream, but as long as we get Winds at least, I’ll be a happy camper
And since it'll be closer to the ending there will be clues and foreshadowing of what could happen so any theories that come out of TWOW could work as a substitute closure to the series
@@theadvocate1 The vision he provided to them for the ending is over a decade old.
With him getting stuck rewriting and his gardener approach, what we get may differ quite a bit from where George thought it would go.
We'll never fully know what they were advised to do and what they ignored unless they discuss it likely decades from now.
I’m not a fan of the books, but from the outside, I always wonder. Isn’t the publisher looking kind of bad about this book not being released? Why isn’t the publisher kicking him in the pants and saying “hey, you said you’d have a book. Where our damn book!?”
I’m sure George’s publishers have pushed him about this book many times over the past 12 years; however, both they and George know that George has leverage here. It doesn’t matter whether the book is released sooner or later, Winds will go on to sell millions. Especially because there are way more fans now than there were 12 years ago
At a certain point, an author, or a project, becomes more powerful than a publisher. ASOIAF still sells well, and if and when there are future books,, they will sell like crazy with virtually no marketing. If I were the publisher, I would write off ASOIAF in GRRM's lifetime, anyway, and work with him on any future books he cares to turn out, which will also sell well, no matter what they're like.
New word of House Fans: "Winter never comes!"
I'm in the "WINDS is never coming" camp, unfortunately. Or, if it does, it won't be the penultimate book because I really don't think George can finish the story in just 2 books. I've been involved with Preston Jacobs's fanfic project, and it's really opened my eyes to just how many threads there are and how much of the story has to be condensed in order to get everyone back in Westeros for the Others. (Or the "Second Dance of the Dragons," or Dany's possible madness, or whatever other plot points need to happen.) In my opinoin, George will never finish the series--but we could see a Wheel of Time-style conclusion where someone else steps in the do it for him, and maybe they'll make the call to split WINDS and DREAM into 3 or more installments.
Good video, though it's always a bummer to think about this topic for too long, haha!
Hey thanks for watching and for your comment! Yeah it’s absolutely crazy how big and complex these books have gotten. I don’t envy George one bit for needing to unravel this large labyrinth of plots. At the same time, I’m of the camp that if he didn’t know how to unravel these threads, he shouldn’t have introduced them in the first place.
I’m looking forward to the fanfic though ! I’m sure it’ll be very well put together and a decent consolation if George doesn’t get Winds out
George is willing to do everything but his job
July 2033 is bizzare. 22 years to write a single book. He will definitely get a Guinness Record for it. And if it's true, his original fans from '90s and '00s would be hitting their 50s or 60s. Damn...
Really thoughtful take - appreciated the call to action to try out other series. Glad RUclips recommended your channel!
Thank you! And yes, so many other good series out there!
You know what, I personally have invested in this novel so much time and money and I'm 95 %sure we won't ever see the last two books. George just doesn't care it seems like maybe he signed some kind of contract with HBO to never release his version of the ending.
George, if he really wants it, could get on a roll and make it his only focus, release it in a year. He could also give up on the book. There’s no way to know.
It is true the George is not our "Byt$%". It is ALSO true that George is really letting down most of his loyal fan base. I understand theres a creative process but this seems an
excessively LONG amount of time. 12 years and counting for just ONE BOOK!😅
As someone who has seen the TV show, not read the books, but has read other series and many honking long books generally: yes, I agree. GRRM has written himself into a corner. ASOIAF already has more characters than War & Peace, which took Tolstoy six years to write, and which he only finished because his copyist/editor/wife Sophia kept him on track. The only way GRRM can finish now is if he takes on a co-writer or two, works with them intensely, and sets goals and benchmarks towards a satisfying ending. In other words, stows the "gardener", and becomes the "architect". But will his pride let him? Doubtful.
My theory is that George had already finished writing Winds and much of Dream of Spring, but the book was very similar to the later seasons of the show, and when George saw how people reacted to the ending he had to discard everything he wrote and start from scratch so that people will like his books better
I believe this to be the case, as well as his involvement is other projects taking away from his progress with ASOIAF. I'm sure the fan reaction to the show influenced his decision making for the books, George is aware of what people are saying.
Lolz people who say this don’t understand how George works
That just doesn't really plot with what we do know I'm afraid, or the timeline of how much we knew he had written at certain points. George knows that the reason the show botched it is because they just drew the most direct lines to the story end points he gave them, without the context and consideration that would have made those points satisfying. George had a huge amount of distractions post-2010, and if he's anything like me - competing priorities and hectic schedule can completely wreck the ability to be productive, and once you get into bad habits, they are hard to get rid of. The end of Dance is already so far from where GOT was at the end of season 5 - I highly doubt he would scrap an entire books worth of storylines that don't resemble anything in the Show.
Nah the way George talks about the ending it really doesn't seem this way. He's been open about saying it'll be different for ages.
Fans: finally the final book
George: actually I have another in the works, a dream of spring
Fan: sure you do buddy
It will come. Even if grrm doesn’t finish it it will still have enough source material to be finished by another writer. Dream of spring is another matter.
Everyone might as well mentally edit down “A Dream of Spring” to just *A Dream* because that’s all it’s ever going to be. Also, “The Winds of Winter” will *NEVER* come out in any truly completed form. I donated all my ASOIAF hardbacks and have completely walked away from George RR Martin. I’m done with him. He’s getting old, his ego has definitely gotten bigger and he’s not being honest with his loyal, longtime fans.
On the plus side: I’m rereading *The Silmarillion* and starting back in on *The Dresden Files* newer books. George messed up, many of his longtime fans are bailing, forever.
Thank you for the video.
That was a really great video, thank you. I do hope George can finish this series. I am old too and I feel the passage of time more urgently too.
Can you imagine if he released both Winds and Dream simultaneously and they were glorious, shiny and chrome. What a day that would be. Ain’t happening tho - we’ll not even see tWoW.
Ive yet to find an author that writes like George. Dune was the next best thing I found and I love every book but I have yet to find a fantasy author (Outside Tolkein) able to grip me the way George does.
Definitely same.
Have you ever tried Brandon Sanderson by chance? I would highly recommend his Stormlight Archive if you haven’t heard of it.
There are other great series out there IMO, but yeah, the amount of lore and branching labyrinthine plots within the ASOIAF series is extremely interesting and definitely unique to George
Wheel of time anyone? 😂
@@larshoogenboom1817 Good but not the same. Follows more conventional fantasy tropes, although breaks them in its own way and does its own really unique worldbuilding.
I like to think he has them wrote and all and has it written into his will that the books may be released whenever he passes so he doesn't have to deal with any backlash.
Sub number 89! love the content, you have a good voice and script for these. great insight as well to the nuance of the whole situation.
Thank you! You’re too kind!
“The silver lining is that George, who is notoriously easily distracted by every Hollywood project that comes his way, now has less things on his plate”
Stannis: Fewer.
I think we might get Winds of Winter, but I’ve still tried to come to terms with the fact that Dream of Spring will never be finished. I hope that GRRM will go back on his declaration that he won’t let another person finish the series in the event of his death.
- But what about 'A Dream of Spring' his fans cried in agony?
- When the sun rises in the west and sets in the east, George said sadly. When the seas go dry and mountains blow in the wind like leaves. When my ability to write quickens again, and I bear a complete story. Then you will receive A Dream of Spring, my sun-and-stars fans, and not before.
Fans are already writing it for him (Preston Jacobs Fan project) and I wouldn't be shocked if they finished before him.
I’ve heard great things about Preston’s fanfic. I know there’s a couple other fan completed Winds books out there as well. If George truly never finishes, then I definitely would not mind if publishers just grabbed these fanfics and published them as canon
@@theadvocate1 That would be a somewhat comedic ending to the saga, knowing George's stance on having someone posthumously finish the series. Even if they remain unpublished, knowing that fanfiction endings exist and are better than what George has written by simple merit of actually existing is kind of sad/funny.
When the seas go dry and mountains blow in the wind like leaves.
When the sun rises in the west and sets in the east
Never. People have got to start accepting this possibility.
I don't think you can extrapolate from the time it's taken since 2011, I think there's a huge possibility he was largely done some years ago (say 2016) and then he scrapped everything since he wasn't happy with it and got distracted with GoT Show stuff
I wish he'd just print whatever he's currently got. Make it more than 7 books if needed.
I could not agree more. George is getting stuck on this whole, “ASOIAF NEEDS to be 7 books” when everyone around him has accepted the fact that this story has grown too big to be encapsulated in just 7 books.
And to your other comment, Sanderson has previously stated that he wouldn’t finish George’s story. He said he would not be a good fit for writing the story’s more brutal/sexual elements, in addition to his and George’s writing styles being radically different
I don’t think it makes as much sense to extrapolate from the earlier years of writing Winds. He was learning to deal with his newfound fame from the popularity of the show and all the additional opportunities that arose because of that. Also with procrastinators it’s easier to do nothing in early phases when you feel like you still have plenty of time or you can hurry it out when crunch time comes (see all his way over optimistic estimates about finishing.)
He does seem to have allowed himself more distractions now, so I wouldn’t be too optimistic, but I think he’ll be able to progress at a stead rate and as he gets nearer towards the end it will be more motivating to finish. I’d guess 3-4 years unless there are big unexpected distractions or mood shifts.
It's a story that cannot be concluded.
At this point, I would honestly be ok with George deciding to make a blog post outlying what events happen and how the last two books end (I wrote a fan fic of this hypothetical blog post. Posted it on a couple of the major fan fiction websites, and even printed and stapled it. Stuck it on my shelf right next to my copies of the books :))
Was wondering recently what the timeline could have looked like with no Bravvos arc, Arya and the Hound meeting up with Sansa, Nymeria and her wolfpack, and Lady Stoneheart, Tyrion getting to Dany faster, no Young Griff, Varys dying in Kings Landing, no Dany returning to the Dothraki Sea, and no Robert Strong. Heck, how about this: Winds of Winter (the last book in this scenario) is published in 2017, and season 7, the last season of the show, is released in 2018.
I love George striking. It is such a good sign of support.
True. On top of that, I’m sure it’s more personal to him as well seeing as how he has friends affected by this strike
Do you guys know if there is or were another book ever have been so anticipated?
In my lifetime, the only one that comes to mind is Harry Potter: The Deathly Hallows. Hype for that book was stratospheric at the time
Its more than time to accept that hes essentially retired. The book will eventually come out. But for now he clearly isn’t interested in working on it, which is fine. People often overlook how complexly written the books are and I can only imagine how difficult it is to write, especially without motivation or passion which he clearly now lacks.
I hope the story does get the real ending it deserves. But I also am not going to pressure or deludedly and persistently nag for it like some fans do. Its interesting to theorise and predict how long the wait but allow it to be.
I’ve also reached this mindset since I posted this video. I’m not going to rush or nag the man but it’s clear Winds will not be releasing anytime soon, if not anytime within George’s life
Currently reading the expanse franchises and it’s so good!
It’s clearly never getting released while George lives
Do you think the slow progress is also due to method by which George writes? Isnt he using a 30 year old Macintosh or something similar? That means no spell checker, punctuation corrector, etc. So George has to manually go through and correct typos and misspellings, cant cut and paste speedily. That could make him X5 slower. And who knows, he might have even lost hundreds of pages due to crashes.
Let's look at the bright side. George has a blueprint of exactly what not to do because of the show.
Anyone looking for something to read and keep you busy while waiting for Winds to come out. HIGHLY recommend The Knightsbridge series by Ken Follett and/or The Discworld series by Terry Pratchett. Plenty of content there to keep you occupied and excellent reads
“Words are wind my Lord, words are wind.”
Indeed 🥲
I've given up on waiting for this book series to be finished. So I'm now starting to read Conn Igulden's War of the Roses, the original history which inspires Game of Thrornes, it's already finishedI highly recommend it to you all, just remember, it's historical fiction, not fantasy.
Baseless opinion that George is writing more steady than anyone thinks and will not release until after he dies.
everybody who enjoys asoiaf should absolutely read the witcher books
It’s on my list!
I suspect GRRM has simply lost interest in his world, I ran a D&D game 12 years ago and I couldn't care less about returning to the characters from that game or finishing that story. It's done, I've moved on. Martin probably has other stories he wanted to tell, and at his age he knows this is his legacy, whether he still cares or not, and that's probably hard to deal with.
I can imagine. 27 years of working on the ASOIAF series and I’m sure he feels stuck to the books. Working on other content is his way of therapy from having to write Winds.
I go from acceptance to hopeless optimism back to acceptance whenever a piece of “good news” pops up regarding Winds progress. But yeah, it’s healthy to just move on and only come back if Winds is finished
great video mate
Thank you!
I think GRRM had already finish the series (or at least he has a define plot line). It's just that he doesn't want to deal with al the backlash and negativity that the finale will generate. Doesn't matter how the books ends, controversy will follow and he is old enough to want to live pacefully; so he is working in projects to expand his universe, he propably has already some texts to complement his universe or an epilogue the size of a short book. Some could think this is delulu, but GRRM wants to have a legacy (already has it, IMO).
Yeah I’m sure he’s cognizant of the fact that no matter what he writes, he’s bound to get backlash. But at this point he should just commit to what he has written and make it as good as possible regardless of what people may think of his narrative decisions.
Thanks for watching by the way!
Absolutely not, lol.
When the sun rises in the west and sets in the east.
When the seas go dry and mountains blow in the wind like leaves.
Speaking of other fantasy series that are worth your time, I recommend Joe Abercrombie's First Law trilogy. It scratches that grim and grimey itch quite well, and has some of the best fight scenes I've ever read. And it's completed!
Hey thanks for the recommendation! I’ve actually already read and made review videos on each book from the first First Law trilogy! As you said, it definitely was grim dark to say the least 😅
In one of his blog posts he's mentioned he gets waking nightmares sometimes bc of the book, I figured that if it has gotten to that point we might never see the book or see it but in ten more years as it has become a sort of problem for him
What's your opinion on the recent news given about GRRM's progress on the book this year?
I figured he didn’t write much this year considering we barely received any Winds of Winter updates on his blog, but him having less written pages than last year did catch me off guard.
Unless he asks for help from writer friends to help him finish the book, we’re not getting Winds for a long long time
Unpopular opinion. I don't think he's going to. 💧
I don’t understand how someone like George is able to focus on anything other than his most important work when not finishing it would result in his legacy being gutted.
He’s got writers block. George wants Winds to be his absolute best piece of work and do right by the fans after the disaster that was Game of Thrones. However, him trying to make the book the best it can be whilst trying to navigate the dozens of plot threads he needs to somehow miraculously (and satisfactorily) tie together as the series nears towards its conclusion have caused George to get a heavy dose of writers block.
So he steps away from his computer to work on unrelated projects to get his mind off things and help clear his head. The problem is, George has too much fun focusing on these other tasks because they don’t give him a headache as bad as what he gets trying to unravel the knotted story that is the main series. So here we are 12 years later.
Unless George calls for help from his writer friends to help him untangle and maybe even co-write Winds, then George will continue to eek along through Winds with his usual minimal progress
@@theadvocate1 Thats bs, no one has writers block for 13 years, he's just not being working on TWOW as he should have. The man has horrible work ethic and that will be his legacy's downfall, but at this point that writers block argument is just ridiculous.
Your page calculation is wrong, he wrote F&B during that period, and also did some work on the forth D&E novel
You’re definitely right; however, for this video I was exclusively just focusing on Winds page progress and not anything else
Hooray! Winds of Winter!!! :’)
Great video, a little sad but as you said people aren't math equations. I am praying for George to finish but I think people that bully him are out of line. I have had many years of enjoyment out of his series and hopefully one day I can read then ending but then again Dune never got an ending and thats my favourite sci-fi.
Great job on the vid love finding small you tubers keep up the great work pal!
Hey thanks for the love, I really appreciate it! And yeah, I’m sure he must get heckled in real life about Winds like he does on Twitter. I doubt he’s looking at his Twitter but real life is a whole different beast
Please make more ASOIAF content, seems to be popular for your channel and makes me smile lol.
Thank you! It definitely seems like it! Unfortunately, I feel like I’ve exhausted most everything I can talk about with regards to the ASOIAF series. But def let me know what other videos I could do about the series as I do love it! Thanks for watching
I know the fanbase love opinion and theory videos. Personally, I'd like to get your take on Val. She's such an interesting character, and not enough people talk about the dynamic between her and Jon, and her significance going forward.
Hey I’m actually not as well versed on the lore behind Val or much to do about the wildlings in the series. I’ll personally leave that to the ASOAIF experts, but thanks for the suggestion!@@dreamquotes
The worst about this situation is that, I think, many fans are starting to think in an even more cynical way (i don't know if this is the correct term in this case), and believe that George passing away and some other writer taking the wheel from that point on would actually be better.
That is not cynicism, it's realistic.
If George is going to take his time finishing the series, then I’ll take my time reading it
"... A Dream of Spring only a couple year thereafter." He doesn't look like he has a couple of years left. May a red priest resurrects him!
If Winds is split ontwo volumes wich seemed likely on the past and a fact now, the first volume could get out any time, it's a fact now the book would be very difficult two fit if not impossible in a single volume, the only reason not to split the book in terms of release and title is that Martin does not want two probrably because it doesn't have a natural placce for the narrative to split the story without spliting winds by pov, like he did for feast and dance wich he does not want to do, but the book will most likely be split in two, it's just that they will be named winds volume 1 and 2 instead of having 2 diferent titles and will be sold in a boxed set containning both books, that it what Martin said would be his choice for distribution if it can fit in one volume in 2022, having said that if the book is expected to sell a lot of copies maybe they decide to do separate releases, that are less than a year in time, Martin probrably would only agree to release the first volume if he BELIEVED the second to be finished or nearly finnished, and the word BELIEVED is key, it could be possible for winds volume 1 to be released in 2024 if Martin believes he is finishing winds by that year or in early 2025, and considreing he believed he had 400 to 500 pages left in octover of 2022, it could be possible for him to believed that if he writes 200 to 250 pages this year, It's also possible he refuses to realease a first volume until he writes the last page of the second volume, dreams is more complicated, we don't know how long will that book be what projects and other books will he be involved on, and how his age affects him.
A Winds split where both books are still called The Winds of Winter (just part 1 and part 2) would likely be the best solution. He could write as much as he wants until he gets to his desired conclusion without having to be limited by the manuscript page limit. I am sure his publishers would love that too as they could sell them as 2 separate books, but we shall see!
George has stated he is about 75% done with his projected 1,600 page manuscript. With 75% of his 1,600 pages done (75% of 1,600 pages equals 1,200 pages), that means he has 400 pages left to write. At his current rate of writing he is producing 100 pages a year (1,200 page written divided by 12 years). So he has 4 years of writing left to finish the book (100 x 4). Four years is [365 x 4 + 1] = 1,461 days. Adding 76 extra days for editing etc. = 1,537 days. That is a release date of November 23, 2027. Just in time for Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Start planning your 2027 Christmas gift buying with Winds of Winter.
This is not how writing works, but ok
@@claiku It is an estimate of his completion date based on factual data. When do you think he will be done?
I've heard takks that Winds will release in early 2025. And, while that's good, that's two years down the line. And, if Martin follows his current release schedule of ages, then the question is will he live long enough to release Dreams of Spring
George the Lazy first of his name.
What does George says about the release date of Winds of Winter?
NOT TODAY.
Does the strike affect the broadway Summerhall?
Nah. Actors in plays and musicals are governed by the Actors' Equity Association, so Broadway is doing its own thing separate from the WGA or SAG
@theadvocate1 that's what I was afraid of,he really sounded enthused about that project
Now do another video using the same math and the same estimates on when we can expect A Dream of Spring
Lets all collect 2 Billion dollars and pay Stephen King to force GRRM to write
Maybe he just likes the attention of everyone waiting for him , and this books never coming.
I haven’t followed very closely-but is this a potential writers block situation? It’s 12 years now?
Yeah it’s definitely writers block. George gets stuck on a storyline so he walks away from the book to write Hollywood projects. After some time he comes back to the book, resolves that storyline... only to get writers block again on a different thread and procrastinates once more. It’s a vicious cycle :(
@@theadvocate1thanks for the added context!
The answer is NEVER
You forgot to remove the year from your equation when you removed the pages (for the pandemic year of 2020). Removing the year raises the pages per day to 0.142 (not the 0.118 you used).
Hey first of all, thanks for watching the video until the end, I really appreciate it! I didn't show it in the video, but I did in fact take out a year from my pessimistic equation. Removing the 400-page 2020 year from the equation, George would have written 750 pages within the span of 3171 days as opposed to 1150 pages within a 3537 day span. The result comes out to 0.118 pages/day. I certainly hope you're right about him getting on a good pace as he nears the finish line though, We just won't know until he provides another update.
And per your other comment, I am actually looking at a script when my eyes aren't looking directly at the camera. I'm trying to get much better about not having my eyes wander off away from the camera, but sometimes I trip up and have to look at the script to keep me in check on what to say next
@@theadvocate1 You are welcome. Thanks for the clarification on the math. Also, please take a moment and watch yourself on the video - you will see how distracting to viewers it is when you are constantly looking up and to the right. Perhaps you can put the script near the camera so that when you look at it you will still be looking at the camera.
I believe George does not have 1100 pages written. He has 1100 pages on paper, but a lot of these, if not all are rough notes. This is not completed material. Large portions of it can be rewritten or thrown away in the future. He does not have even 700 pages in a fairly publishable shape. If he did he would have announced WInds vol 1.
I will die before GRRM finishes Winds of Winter, but at this point I don't care. Just tell me that poor Jon is resurrected. Well, at least show did that.
I subscribed 😀😁
You are a scholar and a champion and I appreciate you immensely!
Let Joe Abercrombie finish the series and let George enjoy his money 🤷🏽♂️🫤
I started reading this series over 20 years ago. A Dream of Spring will never happen. Unfortunately he's up there in age and not in the best health. I've been invested in this series before Google was a thing. It Takes him so long to release a book I've had to re-read the series twice.
The man has definitely lost his motivation (and perhaps a step or two) with his later ASOIAF entries. After his “still 1100 pages” update in December 2023, I pretty much gave up on ever seeing Winds anytime soon, if not, ever.
I’ve heard great things about Ken Follett’s books though! Will check them out. Thanks for the recommendations!
@theadvocate1 specifically check out the Kingsbridge series. They are totally different than any other novel he's written. Any fan of ASOIAF will love those books
Let’s just hope he gets on a role and gets a good amount done this year.
Bleach (10 years) Samurai Jack (13 years), Shenmue 3 (18 years almost), Avatar 2 (13 years), sometimes it is worth the wait, sometimes not. But Winds of Winter will be released. I know that and since bleach the thousand year blood war, I will never loose hope.
Wheel of time case!
Fans need to realize that they are probably never going to see the end of the story. He’s clearly lost interest in it and has other priories on top of being in late 70s. I don’t think he’s going to finish the series and I think he knows that too
Yeah I doubt the story will ever be finished. I do have hope that we will eventually see Winds though! Just not as soon as people think
@@theadvocate1 yeah winds will definitely drop in some form eventually if he really does have as much done as he says he does. (I honestly don’t even really believe him, I think he has way less done than he says). But a dream of spring is like 1% chance
I have optimism it will be released within the next 1-3 years, A Dream of Spring however.......
I love the guy but honestly I think the only way we’d all get the last two books is when GRRM dies.
Much like what happened with the Wheel of Time series where Brian Sanderson finished Robert Jordan’s unfinished work after he died, I honestly think that GRMM’s last two books would only be finished by a successor.
Whether it’s burnout, loss of passion, or pressure from media and fans, whatever is stopping GRRM from finishing his work is doing a great job and I no longer see a reality where he’ll finish his work during his lifetime.
Hey man, great vid! I’m a newtuber too. Been doing video essays on this kind of stuff as well. Maybe we could collab on something ASOIAF-related some time
The literary failure that launched ten thousand youtube videos.
If it ever is released i intuitively trust your 2029 prediction
Haha better 2029 than never
4 years is gone since last episode of the GOT.... and only House of dragon is in production ( looks like we will not see again heroes of the GOT in new series (