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Been on the low serial numbered cards for years. Brady's used to be in dollar bins. Did very well with those. Always looking and, just over the last 6 months or so, have started buying again. Sat out 2020-this past spring. The pricing is getting reasonable, again, at auctions.
When the manufacture creates rare products to push to consumers it typically doesnt go well for long term values in collectibles. The collector drives long term denand, not manufacture.
@Dustin - agree with your analysis, numbered cards have been bashed to hard in past few months. Appreciate the swing back toward the middle ground. As always, buy what you like not what someone tells you to... or tells you not to.
Serial numbered cards are a way to flip even without a PSA 10. If you take a Silver and it gets a 9, you're close to raw but a /50 PSA 9 will still make you more.
For a vet, throw out any card that is numbered over 99. Also throw out all 1/1s which are impossible to collect. That leaves you cards numbered to /5 up to /99. Most sets won't have that many cards. Now for rookies I would expand to anything up to /299. I would also throw out all the autographs and patch cards because those will be kind of expensive to collect. Now you can build a nice collection which will retain its value.
Retain value might still be a stretch. Need to be one of the 5 to 10 best players of their decade to retain any value and that can still be a stretch on most.
Good luck with the Saints. I can't believe a Gold Brady goes for 4-5k. Insane. Numbered out of 10 is rare, but a lot of different gold sets out there. The SSP case hits can have some good value. Zebra and Genesis stuff isn't even numbered, so the print runs can be a guess. But lots of value for the right guys.
I bought mahomes and Brady numbered cards for Pennies just recently when everyone was saying don’t buy serial numbered cards 😂. Love doing the opposite of everyone else I make money that way.
When you say all the serial numbered cards for a set and it comes out to over 1000, it sorta seems like a lot. I thought it was ridiculous how much people were spending on Jordan PSA10s for instance. There over 300 of those plus all the BGS grades and you’d never find nearly that many people that would spend that much on them, so why is the price so high. What I’m getting at is numbering is the same logic. Just because you’re ok with spending an amount on a numbered card, do you really think others would to? Chances are no. Be smart and don’t impulse or fomo buy. We are still in a declining market and I don’t think it’s going to give up any time soon. Thanks for sharing Brother!
The biggest part of the equation to me is #1, which player? As we know, 99% of players won't either be a hobby relevant HOF, a GOAT, and/or player with a collector base, so it makes most cards are usually 'declining' after release. We know the Jordan Fleer rookie is an abundant card but it still commands six figures in a 10. That's another part of the equation of course, how many of the particular numbered card are in a 10 grade, now and potentially in the future? So much nuance! lol
Dustin, this is a great topic. It’s also one of the few topics i honestly don’t have an answer for as I go back and forth all the time on serial numbered cards. It’s really THE question for any ultra modern collector and that’s partly why I stay away from autos, patch and serial cards. I just don’t know how they will be perceived in the long run, so I’m afraid to put any of my budget towards them. That’s why I stick with 80’s/90’s/00’s and vintage because I know how those cards are perceived in the hobby now. Great video!
I like numbered cards. Probably my favorite things to pull when opening packs. One time i pulled a numbered joe Burrow and got it in a psa 10. Probably the best football card ill ever pull honestly lol
Fascinating topic! I’m getting into sports cards for the first time, specifically NFL #’d QB RCs. What are your thoughts on brands like Absolute, Classics, Luminance, XR etc? Can they be as valuable as the Prizms, Select, Donruss Optics etc, especially low #’d?
serial numbered cards are mass produced as well, they can just be specifically quantified into categories (colors, names of design, auto, patch, etc.) - whatever the differentiation there is - people just pick the preferred "variation" and model (manufacturer, release category, whatever) - demand still matters, and current demand is typically declining vs multi-year future demand post-release; today's new card darling is old in 8-12 months - vintage differentiation is grade and POP report, and if you go really deep, go look at singles that are not graded and evaluate what the condition might be if graded
@@TheSportsCardDad - I think you're onto something that people talk about, but only at a very superficial level - I'm not as close to the issue as modern card collectors, but I think spending time with this topic would be hobby invaluable for you or another content creator -mainly because there are different generations of serial numbered cards in the various sports, and there are different levels attached; now blend in the notion of on-card vs sticker auto; patch + or - auto, and then the most interesting variance for patches, the number of colors; for people that are not strong with math, a 1 of 5 and another 1 of 5 cannot be equivalent; then try and confront popularity bias of the card itself, the player, the manufacturer, the cost of wax on release, and the series from the manufacturer - that's a mega stacked game of how can anyone figure out relative value, particularly with basic guesses at initial prices for singles; the price sticks and builds a baseline, or the price folds - hats off to the modern buyers - it's more guesswork than anything as to value - serial numbered cards are not new, the variations are the twist
The non-numbered will be the first to drop. Then the higher print #'d parallels and less desirable set/players. I think the top tier players will hold on in the desired sets. The problem is players and sets slowly become less desirable over time.
This how I look at it too, I won’t spend any money on a card that isn’t numbered and standard on how low the #erd card I get all depends on the year of the product
I've been selling cards at National..and now in😢 Dallas area. ..numbered cards are hot. And of course ..ho hum..NFL QBs.. 50..to..200...a card..seems to sweet spot. Big money cards are dead..
Perfect timing, mentioned this in my live yesterday. I’ve got someone coming on to talk about this in more detail in a week or so. He is the one who worked with me for my video on this same topic a few months ago. 1100 is a lot. You need to factor in all other products across all other years. It’s a mess.
Sounds good, I’ll check it out. 1100 is all relative, depending on demand. And as I said towards the end, which sets/products will have demand down the road? Probably not many of the Panini products, but I do think Prizm will hold up. But we’ll see!
@@TheSportsCardDadif you want to have a chat on it I’m more than happy to discuss. I’ve raised the same concerns about panini product and what might happen moving forward.
Base cards are a multiplier for numbered cards. There is a spreadsheet that I use for baseball that helps purchasing and selling. Im sure it can be apllied to other sports as well.
The only true scarce rookie cards are the ones that are expired redemptions. You cant pull them from boxes anymore... maybe fee backdoored but that's it
Interesting take! One of my favorite cards on the wish list is the 93 Skybox Simpsons Matt Groening auto card (original art). They were only available via redemption
Theoretically ghsefall into the sunken submarine category as the procuder could release an 'expired redemption' megaset or chase set, cleaning out a warehouse shelf
People gravitate towards Mantle's first Topps card vs his true 51 Bowman RC. I'm not saying it will... but if that plays out for Brady his first Topps Chrome Refractor is out of 599. His first Topps finest refractor is out of 250. His first Topps pristine refractor is out of 349. All low serial numbered cards, even lower in PSA 9/10 grade. For less than $5k you can buy all 3 in PSA 9. Or you could buy two Bowman chrome rookie cards which have been graded over 10k times. I'm betting the serial numbered first Topps products will outperform the Bowman Chrome rookie cards.
Looks at historical sales of licensed numbered cards they always go up in value and significantly up in value in a psa 9 or 10. Same for bgs. Recently many cards have come down but that’s because stimulus has ended credit is harder to get and m2 money supply is being burned off. Also we are in a quite recession. But going back to the 90’s numbered and limited supply licensed cards are way up. Low pop count will always be sought after by investors and upper class collectors that will always be the case it will never change. If you have three thousand rookie base prizm psa 10 cards of the same player the value of that card will go down. Its easy to understand.
Question for you though, if a card is a non-rookie, and they put 1000 parallel cards out for that player every year for 10 years, what do you consider the print run? is it 1000 or 10,000? Do you think a collector 10 years down the road is going to value any particular year any differently or feel the need to collect all 10 years of that player? If a buyer in 10 years wants a player's gold Prizm /10, how many cards will he actually have to choose from?
It's a good question Mike, trying to sort through what people will want in the future is tough. But it's clear that interest in non-rookie cards has dramatically increased over the last, at least 5 years, probably more. In terms of value holding up, I think picking players correctly is most important. But who knows, maybe it swings back to only RC's eating up most of the attention etc
... again, 90% of these problems would be solved by card manufacturers publishing its print runs. I have a ton of cards that are /99, /149/299 and they have limited meaning. If there are 20 sets of a player in a given year that are /149, really my card is /2980.
For long term holds, serial numbered is the way to go and you don’t have to spend a lot for them. You can pick up /25, /49, /99, /199 of potential superstars like Luka, Tatum for $10-30@. Try to get RCs (might be too late for Luka now) or 2nd year. Gold /10 rookies are much more expensive but you can still get 2nd year gold at the $100 price range. They don’t come too often but I get them when they show up.
If I had a dime for every time I heard the rumor about the Mantles being housed in a submarine at the bottom of the Hudson, I’d have…a dime ;) Sponge Bob down there collating ‘52 Topps sets.
Case by case basis.. I think truly numbered cards that have a unique aspect might gain/hold value with collectors in the long run…. On the flip side the way most numbered cards are I think is sort of gimmicky and long term collectors won’t care about /99, /75, /199, /500, /49 etc.. when the only thing different is the color of the card or the bordering.. I just don’t think collectors in 20 years will look back on todays /25 low number card with actual 25 rarity when it’s just the same picture as the base card but blue colored
Collectors want serial numbered cards so manufacturers are supplying them. Long term most of it is junk that nobody is going to desire in 10 or 20 years.
I disagree with some of this. Parallels are something I continue to not understand. I feel like if you put a number on anything the investors are going to buy it no matter what the difference is, even if it is stupid. For the life of me, I cannot understand why a Justin Jefferson rookie card in a packer green parallel color sells for so much money. *I just vurped in my mouth just thinking about it.*
I have no problem with serial numbered cards, yes, they do hurt the projected value of the base card and or colored base card that is not serial numbered. Numbered. I don't like it when there's multiple one of ones. Also I would like to see the one of one change.
I would not touch most serial numbered cards, it's going to be said what where people thinking is going to be the common phrase in the not too long future.
Thanks! What we are going to see is that over time, modern card serial # cards of players who retire wo any chance of reaching HOF status will plummet and reach a floor, to be replaced by the "new" prospects/hyped players. A never ending cycle. My game will be PC what I like,,,,,and sell, sell, sell everything else. Nothing will ever be "rare" in the modern era, @ 30 sets per and approx 500 # serial cards per subject - 10-20K of a player per year depending on sport of serial # cards is laughable. Everyone needs to have fun and enjoy what they do,
I remember when you did a video that hated in serial numbered cards and now this video loving serial numbered cards. What’s next? Hating on graded cards? Go ahead and make that video. You’ll get a ton of views!!!!!
There’s a lot more nuance to this topic than you’re saying here. I’ve never said I hate all serial numbered cards, it all depends on which ones/which players/which years etc, We all know most players don’t work out, so most serial numbered (as well as base cards) for most players will most likely decline in value from inception
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Definitely going to check it out!
Apologies, the audio was a little fuzzy today. Frank is on it! lol
Dustin: Me, myself and Frank
Been on the low serial numbered cards for years. Brady's used to be in dollar bins. Did very well with those. Always looking and, just over the last 6 months or so, have started buying again. Sat out 2020-this past spring. The pricing is getting reasonable, again, at auctions.
When the manufacture creates rare products to push to consumers it typically doesnt go well for long term values in collectibles. The collector drives long term denand, not manufacture.
@Dustin - agree with your analysis, numbered cards have been bashed to hard in past few months. Appreciate the swing back toward the middle ground. As always, buy what you like not what someone tells you to... or tells you not to.
Serial numbered cards are a way to flip even without a PSA 10. If you take a Silver and it gets a 9, you're close to raw but a /50 PSA 9 will still make you more.
For a vet, throw out any card that is numbered over 99. Also throw out all 1/1s which are impossible to collect. That leaves you cards numbered to /5 up to /99. Most sets won't have that many cards. Now for rookies I would expand to anything up to /299. I would also throw out all the autographs and patch cards because those will be kind of expensive to collect. Now you can build a nice collection which will retain its value.
Retain value might still be a stretch. Need to be one of the 5 to 10 best players of their decade to retain any value and that can still be a stretch on most.
I’m a firm believer in numbered, there are so many colored non based version , then of course there’s ssp and case hits.
Good luck with the Saints. I can't believe a Gold Brady goes for 4-5k. Insane. Numbered out of 10 is rare, but a lot of different gold sets out there.
The SSP case hits can have some good value. Zebra and Genesis stuff isn't even numbered, so the print runs can be a guess. But lots of value for the right guys.
I agree, even the golds there are multiple years and multiple products. A 15th year Tom Brady gold just isn't very important long term.
@@affirmed_7835 not neccesarily. If the Tom Brady gold is from a new hot set it will do numbers. Think Michael Jordan.
I bought mahomes and Brady numbered cards for Pennies just recently when everyone was saying don’t buy serial numbered cards 😂. Love doing the opposite of everyone else I make money that way.
When you say all the serial numbered cards for a set and it comes out to over 1000, it sorta seems like a lot. I thought it was ridiculous how much people were spending on Jordan PSA10s for instance. There over 300 of those plus all the BGS grades and you’d never find nearly that many people that would spend that much on them, so why is the price so high. What I’m getting at is numbering is the same logic. Just because you’re ok with spending an amount on a numbered card, do you really think others would to? Chances are no. Be smart and don’t impulse or fomo buy. We are still in a declining market and I don’t think it’s going to give up any time soon. Thanks for sharing Brother!
The biggest part of the equation to me is #1, which player? As we know, 99% of players won't either be a hobby relevant HOF, a GOAT, and/or player with a collector base, so it makes most cards are usually 'declining' after release. We know the Jordan Fleer rookie is an abundant card but it still commands six figures in a 10. That's another part of the equation of course, how many of the particular numbered card are in a 10 grade, now and potentially in the future? So much nuance! lol
Dustin, this is a great topic. It’s also one of the few topics i honestly don’t have an answer for as I go back and forth all the time on serial numbered cards. It’s really THE question for any ultra modern collector and that’s partly why I stay away from autos, patch and serial cards. I just don’t know how they will be perceived in the long run, so I’m afraid to put any of my budget towards them. That’s why I stick with 80’s/90’s/00’s and vintage because I know how those cards are perceived in the hobby now. Great video!
The majority of people think 1000 or 2000 is an abundant print run. This means the amount of people in the hobby is that much thinner.
I like numbered cards. Probably my favorite things to pull when opening packs. One time i pulled a numbered joe Burrow and got it in a psa 10. Probably the best football card ill ever pull honestly lol
Fascinating topic! I’m getting into sports cards for the first time, specifically NFL #’d QB RCs.
What are your thoughts on brands like Absolute, Classics, Luminance, XR etc? Can they be as valuable as the Prizms, Select, Donruss Optics etc, especially low #’d?
serial numbered cards are mass produced as well, they can just be specifically quantified into categories (colors, names of design, auto, patch, etc.) - whatever the differentiation there is - people just pick the preferred "variation" and model (manufacturer, release category, whatever) - demand still matters, and current demand is typically declining vs multi-year future demand post-release; today's new card darling is old in 8-12 months - vintage differentiation is grade and POP report, and if you go really deep, go look at singles that are not graded and evaluate what the condition might be if graded
For sure Jay, the nuance in serial numbered stuff is many many layers deep
@@TheSportsCardDad - I think you're onto something that people talk about, but only at a very superficial level - I'm not as close to the issue as modern card collectors, but I think spending time with this topic would be hobby invaluable for you or another content creator -mainly because there are different generations of serial numbered cards in the various sports, and there are different levels attached; now blend in the notion of on-card vs sticker auto; patch + or - auto, and then the most interesting variance for patches, the number of colors; for people that are not strong with math, a 1 of 5 and another 1 of 5 cannot be equivalent; then try and confront popularity bias of the card itself, the player, the manufacturer, the cost of wax on release, and the series from the manufacturer - that's a mega stacked game of how can anyone figure out relative value, particularly with basic guesses at initial prices for singles; the price sticks and builds a baseline, or the price folds - hats off to the modern buyers - it's more guesswork than anything as to value - serial numbered cards are not new, the variations are the twist
Better off buying number cards from the 90s!!!👍
The non-numbered will be the first to drop. Then the higher print #'d parallels and less desirable set/players. I think the top tier players will hold on in the desired sets. The problem is players and sets slowly become less desirable over time.
This how I look at it too, I won’t spend any money on a card that isn’t numbered and standard on how low the #erd card I get all depends on the year of the product
I've been selling cards at National..and now in😢 Dallas area. ..numbered cards are hot. And of course ..ho hum..NFL QBs.. 50..to..200...a card..seems to sweet spot. Big money cards are dead..
Perfect timing, mentioned this in my live yesterday. I’ve got someone coming on to talk about this in more detail in a week or so.
He is the one who worked with me for my video on this same topic a few months ago.
1100 is a lot. You need to factor in all other products across all other years. It’s a mess.
Sounds good, I’ll check it out. 1100 is all relative, depending on demand. And as I said towards the end, which sets/products will have demand down the road? Probably not many of the Panini products, but I do think Prizm will hold up. But we’ll see!
@@TheSportsCardDadif you want to have a chat on it I’m more than happy to discuss. I’ve raised the same concerns about panini product and what might happen moving forward.
Base cards are a multiplier for numbered cards. There is a spreadsheet that I use for baseball that helps purchasing and selling. Im sure it can be apllied to other sports as well.
The only true scarce rookie cards are the ones that are expired redemptions. You cant pull them from boxes anymore... maybe fee backdoored but that's it
Interesting take! One of my favorite cards on the wish list is the 93 Skybox Simpsons Matt Groening auto card (original art). They were only available via redemption
Theoretically ghsefall into the sunken submarine category as the procuder could release an 'expired redemption' megaset or chase set, cleaning out a warehouse shelf
Thanks for the shout out to my video!
Of course! 👌
People gravitate towards Mantle's first Topps card vs his true 51 Bowman RC. I'm not saying it will... but if that plays out for Brady his first Topps Chrome Refractor is out of 599. His first Topps finest refractor is out of 250. His first Topps pristine refractor is out of 349. All low serial numbered cards, even lower in PSA 9/10 grade. For less than $5k you can buy all 3 in PSA 9. Or you could buy two Bowman chrome rookie cards which have been graded over 10k times. I'm betting the serial numbered first Topps products will outperform the Bowman Chrome rookie cards.
Looks at historical sales of licensed numbered cards they always go up in value and significantly up in value in a psa 9 or 10. Same for bgs. Recently many cards have come down but that’s because stimulus has ended credit is harder to get and m2 money supply is being burned off. Also we are in a quite recession. But going back to the 90’s numbered and limited supply licensed cards are way up. Low pop count will always be sought after by investors and upper class collectors that will always be the case it will never change. If you have three thousand rookie base prizm psa 10 cards of the same player the value of that card will go down. Its easy to understand.
Question for you though, if a card is a non-rookie, and they put 1000 parallel cards out for that player every year for 10 years, what do you consider the print run? is it 1000 or 10,000? Do you think a collector 10 years down the road is going to value any particular year any differently or feel the need to collect all 10 years of that player? If a buyer in 10 years wants a player's gold Prizm /10, how many cards will he actually have to choose from?
It's a good question Mike, trying to sort through what people will want in the future is tough. But it's clear that interest in non-rookie cards has dramatically increased over the last, at least 5 years, probably more. In terms of value holding up, I think picking players correctly is most important. But who knows, maybe it swings back to only RC's eating up most of the attention etc
Great video Dustin, I appreciate you breaking it down simply and showing love to both serial numbered and on serial numbered cards 👊🏼
... again, 90% of these problems would be solved by card manufacturers publishing its print runs. I have a ton of cards that are /99, /149/299 and they have limited meaning. If there are 20 sets of a player in a given year that are /149, really my card is /2980.
For long term holds, serial numbered is the way to go and you don’t have to spend a lot for them. You can pick up /25, /49, /99, /199 of potential superstars like Luka, Tatum for $10-30@. Try to get RCs (might be too late for Luka now) or 2nd year. Gold /10 rookies are much more expensive but you can still get 2nd year gold at the $100 price range. They don’t come too often but I get them when they show up.
If I had a dime for every time I heard the rumor about the Mantles being housed in a submarine at the bottom of the Hudson, I’d have…a dime ;) Sponge Bob down there collating ‘52 Topps sets.
The same location as Jimmy Hoffa!! Lol
Ahahaha. Hoffa down their tradin ‘52 Topps w/ Sponge Bob. SB: I’ll give you a Mantle for your Eddie Matthews. JH: But the Mantle’s not even a true RC!
Case by case basis.. I think truly numbered cards that have a unique aspect might gain/hold value with collectors in the long run….
On the flip side the way most numbered cards are I think is sort of gimmicky and long term collectors won’t care about /99, /75, /199, /500, /49 etc.. when the only thing different is the color of the card or the bordering..
I just don’t think collectors in 20 years will look back on todays /25 low number card with actual 25 rarity when it’s just the same picture as the base card but blue colored
I've heard that argument about the same picture just different numbering. We'll see!
Collectors want serial numbered cards so manufacturers are supplying them. Long term most of it is junk that nobody is going to desire in 10 or 20 years.
Vintage sports shack, angola, indiana. All friends are welcome.
I disagree with some of this. Parallels are something I continue to not understand. I feel like if you put a number on anything the investors are going to buy it no matter what the difference is, even if it is stupid. For the life of me, I cannot understand why a Justin Jefferson rookie card in a packer green parallel color sells for so much money. *I just vurped in my mouth just thinking about it.*
I have no problem with serial numbered cards, yes, they do hurt the projected value of the base card and or colored base card that is not serial numbered. Numbered. I don't like it when there's multiple one of ones. Also I would like to see the one of one change.
Great video. A good take that's different than what most ppl say.
I appreciate that!
1,100-card overall print run is extremely small.
I would not touch most serial numbered cards, it's going to be said what where people thinking is going to be the common phrase in the not too long future.
Love this video. Great things to think about.
Glad you enjoyed it!
Thanks! What we are going to see is that over time, modern card serial # cards of players who retire wo any chance of reaching HOF status will plummet and reach a floor, to be replaced by the "new" prospects/hyped players. A never ending cycle. My game will be PC what I like,,,,,and sell, sell, sell everything else. Nothing will ever be "rare" in the modern era, @ 30 sets per and approx 500 # serial cards per subject - 10-20K of a player per year depending on sport of serial # cards is laughable. Everyone needs to have fun and enjoy what they do,
First video in a while. They just haven't been pushed to me for whatever reason.
Awesome episode 🤙🏽
The rare is color + # = supply
Great video!
I remember when you did a video that hated in serial numbered cards and now this video loving serial numbered cards. What’s next? Hating on graded cards? Go ahead and make that video. You’ll get a ton of views!!!!!
There’s a lot more nuance to this topic than you’re saying here. I’ve never said I hate all serial numbered cards, it all depends on which ones/which players/which years etc, We all know most players don’t work out, so most serial numbered (as well as base cards) for most players will most likely decline in value from inception
@@TheSportsCardDad I hope so. I hope all cards go to zero. More cards for me!!!!!
I have 1990 cards.
🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Of that one set though.
Right, that’s what I was talking about towards the end. Identifying which sets for which years is also a challenge
Modern #'d stuff is corny. Zero interest
in 50 years base cards will be incredibly hard to find. No one collectes them now, some people even throw them away.
All these parallels are crazy.