T Dude. You really expect someone who was a busy as Doug has time to reply every day, let alone to a joke comment that has been running on every single video for years? Be realistic. He’s a douche? Do you know the guy? Im pretty sure Neeme doesnt think so because they are personal friends and he has said more than once that much of the hate for Doug Polk is unfounded.
Jacobson was ninth here with serious chip deficit to chip leaders, and eventually he won it...WOW And the hand, the way pre flop, flop and ESPECIALLY TURN were played, Newhouse knew he was against overpair to his tens... He wanted to make Tonking fold on the river with that overpair on board where top card paired but with so much money invested Tonking basically had to call...
i dont think this was a range merge. the turn bet indicates that he felt much beaten with his 10s but wasnt shure. i think his initial plan was to get away with that blocker bet and check the river in position. but sadly for him he changed his mind once the last jack came. he thought theres a big opportunity and was pretty much shure he is beat. the call however is only possible with some history in advance. im pretty confident we would see queens folding against a new player. it really looked like a scared and weak little jack that became confident with that river help
Old thread I know, but that doesn't make sense. Why would he go all-in if he thought that's what his opponent had? He'd still win at showdown with pocket 10s. No, I think he knew his pocket 10s were in bad shape, and that's why he turned them into a bluff.
@@iamamishits a reasonable take but i just have to go back to his reaction at the end of the hand. He flipped his hand over like he thought it was good and only reacted when Tonking tabled his hand. Only that board some players could call down with Ak-99…
I don't understand the turn bet. What is he trying to accomplish? Is he trying to get value out of the AK, AQ, 77-99 hands? It seems like a feeler bet where everything that beats you(or has a lot of value against you) calls, and everything that you beat folds. The shove on the river is also interesting, as he now beats a lot of draws on the turn (that he was giving an amazing price to) and he has great showdown value. A Jack almost always leads that river, so it seems to me like he is trying to get QQ+ to fold, or he is doing it for value. Maybe he thought that QQ+ will always lead that turn, as the turn was pretty much a blank, so he thought his TT was good.
My theory, for what it's worth (not much). Due to the PF and flop action he puts Tonking on a big pair AA-QQ. On the river he correctly figures Tonking is going to check/call. His only chance to win the pot is over bet at the tight player and hope he doesn't figure it out. Tonking probably calls him because of his action on the turn. Without the fishy turn bet the bluff probably works.
I like Tonking's check on the turn a lot. When your 3bet pre is followed up with a bet/call on the flop, you need to do something to balance your range on the turn - you can't just always check weaker hands and always bet top pair + hands. This is almost certainly why he checked, not because he was afraid that he was behind (fwiw I've played with Tonking quite a bit and he's a much better player than a lot of people give him credit for). I think this spot in particular was a great opportunity to take this line - Tonking's image was tight/ABC at this point as Antonio was eluding to in the commentary. Newhouse probably folds to another bet on turn more often than he normally would because of this. So a check/check on the turn followed up with a value bet on the river probably has a better chance of getting value. Not to mention that checking the turn may also induce Newhouse to spazz with a hand like TT xD
Balance Schmalance. He loses value from worse hands (given that Newhouse should really be checking back TT and worse), the pot is huge, and he gives his opponent a chance to catch a free card with some Ax hands, his check sucks.
The free card is not really a big deal, since you're basically only worried about 3 cards (aces), and it's not even that likely Newhouse has an ace. Newhouse's most likely hand is what he had (middle pocket pair), and like Tom said, there is a better chance he calls a river bet after c/c turn than calls a turn bet, and almost definitely not calling three barrels, since that would just look so strong given the way Tonkin played it and the fact that it is 9 handed still at the Nov. 9.
+Evan Elsaesser He´s not only giving aces a chance but all the midpairs too so yeah its a big deal especially considering the pot is like 12 million on the turn. Not too likely Newhouse has an A? How about AQ which is definitely in his range, AJs. Maybe even a scared AK. Almost definitely not calling 3 barrels? He is 100% not snap folding the river when another J runs out. Tonkin could have lost value on the turn and got lucky Newhouse decided to turn his hand into a bluff, end of story.
I think the weird thing about this hand is that he could have almost only done this on the river if he knew his opponent had him beat but would be in a touch spot when you think about it. Because what value is he getting from a hand calling him on the river? Any boat snap calls, and the next best hand that's calling is an Ace high to go with the two pair, which isn't calling unless it's for a small bet like he did on the turn. Other than that the only hands beating him are 44 or any suited 4, which is super unlikely. So Newhouse almost had to do this knowing he was bad at showdown, but that his opponent didn't have a J because no lower pair is calling him except maybe 9s, meanwhile the only hands he is squeezing are ones like QQ KK AA. All other possible hands he has beat at showdown or snap call.
I've watched a lot of your videos Doug and I have to say ( from my limited perspective on Poker ) I've learned the most from your summation of this hand. Thank you
Lee McDaid - Donegal 60fps This dude took me from a break even player to profitable from the free videos alone. The number one takeaway I got from them? Bluff more. Bluffing is the absolute nuts.
What do you think about Tonkings turn play? Should he just move in after the bet? Newhouse only had 10 million behind. He can potentially represent an AK or AQ that is bluffing and get called by Jx.
I have just had an idea, and I think you will like this, Doug! Given the nature of these videos - being about poker - and your surname being Polk, you could call this series Polker hands? Just a thought :) Scott
Hello! I have a question. I get why you say 8-7 voor Van Hoof is too loose, but could you explain why it would be better to make that move 5-3 suited, or 5-7 suited?
Seems hard for Newhouse to rep the Jack. Most Jacks are checking the turn back trying to get to showdown with the way the hand had played out to that point. As Doug said, a four cant really be in Newhouse's range with the way the hand was played pre. I think Newhouse just went a little haywire here with an odd bluff line.
Vab hoof raised correctly ... he might had inflat the pot with just a min raise just so that his opponent if happen to have big hands , it will eleminate 1 opponent . In additonal if his opponent has weak hand , he can take down the flop preflop or even post flop ... He is just using a min amount to inflate the pot in hopping of opponent eleminating each other
hey doug great video as usual. excited about poker news. wanted to say i really enjoy your content and i think its cool that you share you poker knowledge.
I don't think Newhouse thought he was bluffing judging by how quick he flipped his hand and his bet gave incredible odds making it hard for villain to fold.
If I were you I would religiously make videos with Daniel Negreanu in the title - these seem to get the most views. Great video as always and good luck Doug!
Hi Doug great stuff! Why do we want to make our opponents indifferent to call or fold on the river? Shouldnt we try to influence villains decision on the river with our sizing and our line depending if we want a call or a fold? Seems more profitable( when playing mtts and its unlikely the villain is gonna learn how to exploit you in a short period of time)
Newhouse was in no way shape or form bluffing this river. Tonking's hand makes much more sense for it to be AK/AQs than Qs+. Given how tight they say Tonking has been playing, I doubt he has very much Jx at all when he 3Bets vs this action in front of him oop. After the flop action, Newhouse has around 14.5M behind which is less than pot and doesn't lead jam or check raise all in. He check calls a 1/4 pot size bet with barely any chips behind. When the board pairs the J on the river, we already as Newhouse think that Tonking has very little Jx that 3Bets Preflop and given his passive line on the turn given the SPR I believe that as Newhouse we should eliminate all combos of Qs since Qs should be a clear bet on the turn and shouldn't be looking to trap unlike Ks and As so now we are left with 1 combo of Js, 6 of Ks, and 6 of As vs 4 combos of AQs and 16 combos of AK. So 13 Combos that beat us and 20 that we beat that can hero call with this SPR on the river. Even if we assume that they trap Qs as well then it is 17 Combos that beat us and 20 Combos that we beat. This is all assuming that As and Ks are trapping 100% of the time on the turn/river and AK/AQs are betting once on the flop and check calling vs this small bet on the turn. This is also assuming that AQo is not in our opponent's 3Bet range even tho it very easily could be given that the original raiser is opening like crazy with all sorts or trash. If Tonking is 3Betting AQo as well then u probably can put AJs in there as well. Let's make the 3Betting range AJs+,AQ+,Js+ and no suited connectors/low suited Ax as 3Bet bluffs given Tonking's play style so far in this situation. So now for Value/Traps Tonking has 2 combos AJs, 1 Combo Js, 6 combos of Ks, 6 combos of As = 15 Combos of hands that beat us. This is also assuming that AJs plays this had this way on the turn which is imo not very likely. For hands that we beat there are 16 combos of AK, 16 combos of AQ = 32 combos of hands that we beat that might hero call river given the SPR. Even if we assume that they trap Qs as well then it is 19 Combos that beat us and 32 Combos that we beat. Not trapping Qs=15 Combos that beat us and 32 COmbos that we beat. Tonking played it horribly imo and got lucky that Newhouse had 10s and was smart enough to go for value when his opponents hand looked most likely to be Ace high that wanted to get to showdown. Someone tell me that Tonking wouldn't play AK/AQ the same way he did in this hand. 3Bet Preflop, 1/3 pot bet on flop, check to check/call vs small bets and check/fold vs bigger size bets, check river hoping to showdown Ace high on 2 pair board. If Tonking had AK in this spot and Newhouse checked the river like Doug says to do then Doug would be telling us that he should Jam river since his opponent looks really weak and can sometimes get called by Ace high. Just look at Newhouse how he flips his hand over so fast thinking he is winning for sure. Tonking kind of Nit rolled him on the river and Newhouse knows it. I think Tonking in this hand hoped Newhouse had a Jack after the flop and turn then got cold feet when the Jack hit the river and his whole plan of trapping a Jack blew up in his face and he didn't know what to do. Obviously any non Ace, King or Heart river and Tonking probably Snap calls if Newhouse jams.
@@WhatAreYouNew Lol so u are saying Tonking is a pro... nice 1 genius. This hand shows the opposite. Too bad in 2019 morons are given a voice so I have to talk to people like you.
If i was in Tonkings shoes i might of had to put a nice size bet on the turn maybe even shove, but given the way he check calls and checks river id have to lean towards a call for showdown cause at tht point my hand is under reped even though its a huge mistake if im wrong i think puting in the call and a short prayer would be the best choice!
nope, he described his thoughts in an interview afterwards. He put Tonking on that sort of hand, and saw the J on river as "an opportunity". He said if the river had been a brick he would've checked.
Hey Doug, have you ever considered putting the title of the series "poker hands" in the video title? I think it would help to make things less confusing
Ok this isn’t just another tournament it’s the main even final table with HUGE pay bumps after a 4 month delay I am folding my way to 8th ( unless I get aces ). Then after I pick up another $200k. I go for the win !
I think if a third heart hits the river instead of double-pairing the board, it's a worse spot for Newhouse to bluff. How many heart draws does Newhouse call flop and lead turn with? A2, A3, and A5 hearts are better three-bet candidates preflop than calling raise and three-bet, so it's hard to represent those. A6 through A9 hearts should have folded flop or before. AQ and AK hearts should be three-betting preflop. That leaves AT hearts as the only hand that could maybe take the line of call pre, call flop, and bet turn of all the ace flushes. KQ, KT, QT, and maybe T9 hearts also could take that line. So that makes 3-5 hands that make a flush on the river versus all the bluffs that take that line. Seems like over-bluffing to me, and if this bluff was spotted, the flush bluff seems even easier to call.
Thanks Doug, its always interesting to listen and learn. Hello from Saint- Petersburg Russia. I hope than one day i will win some major tournament, so far my best score is just 1k$ lol but i play micro limits and play in free time..)
i think i've heard him say he makes some slight exploitative adjustments but all in all he likes to stick to a more theory based style that he knows is good.
u explain that 87 off is way too weak and perhaps he should mix it up with 53 suited or 75 suited, but isn't it true that a suited hand only gives you a 2% advantage over non suited? or is that misinformation? i heard that somewhere and found it hard to believe, but it always stuck with me. great videos btw
copy and paste from above: They're all bad hands, but at least 53s and 75s can flop monster draws. Also Imagine the BB is afraid to 3Bet and only does so with AA, KK, QQ, AK. Let's say they flat with hands like: JJ-99,AQs-ATs,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,AQo-AJo,KQo 87o has 31.6% equity while 53s and 75s have 34.7% -----> So yes, it's a 3.1% difference, but 3.1% is 6.2% ROI (return on investment)
Yeah we see it as bluff cuz we know both players card's Doug, but if you put yourself in his position you'll be betting here thinking u have strongest hands y right cuz jack went on river that means hes less likely to have jack, tonking could easyl be calling here with A5's or AK AQ A10 KQ....i think newhouse did great play here. Keep up good work polkerinho
I don't think so. I think Doug was saying that GTO wise it was a bad bluff by Newhouse cuz TT is way too high in his range and if he's bluffing TT there, he'll be way over bluffing, plus he has decent show down value. For Tonking I think Doug was saying it was a tough spot but if you think your opponent is over bluffing then it's a call.
So Newhouse's all-in was the wrong decision but it was his only way of winning and immediately after the result Polk says it was a tough decision for Tonking.
I disagree on this one. Newhouse knew his only way to win the hand was jam and that's what he did. He could also be repping pocket Kings or pocket Aces.
IMO newhouse will almost never have a jack in this spot.. I think he would ck behind the turn 100% of the times.. I dont see mutch sense in beting a jack in the turn, when u have 14kk behind and the pot 16kk, and the vilain range its so strong. He could easily check shove the turn, and what would you do? so imo he should always ck the turn with the J.. thats why its a easy call on the river.. What do you think Doug??
Sums up the guy: the way he slams his cards down like a little punk after he sees 10's. He can say what he wants but he had no idea if he was beat or not
Ok both players are sick here. Easy can someone have hand like J or why not pocket 4. But in fact he is maybe read him body langugues. When you bluff you are usually little more nervus. However in live poker is easier to unterstand a bluff than to make a great bluff
On tonking checking the turn why do you assume hes checking because hes scared? In my mind hes checking to simulate giving up because hes bluffing to induce a bet. Yes you agree? No you dont?
Its rare hes going to induce a bet on that board after Newhouse calls flop, if Newhouse had played the hand correctly it would have gone check check , check check and Tonkin ends up losing value, as it turns out he got lucky Newhouse bet turn and decided to turn his hand into a bluff...
2:38 is 53 suited really better to play than 78 offsuit though? Lol. This comment threw me off. How is 53 suited a good example of a hand that would be better to play than 78?
![YoungBoy Never Broke Again - Missing Everything [Official Video]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/dTYeMZGzOzw/mqdefault.jpg)
I wish Dougie Fresh was still doing poker hands. I'd love to see some Jacobson's hands from this FT
Heck ! I wanna see him breakdown the hands from WSOP 2022 main event
@@tomdickandharry9848 I already asked him via Facebook. Can't be done due to poker go having exclusive rights 😔
Well Martin played perfect so what’s to analyze? Lol
Doug if you review PLO hands will you call it PLOKER hands?
Imagine his name when reviewing badugi...
Badougi lmao
He’s suc( a douche he won’t respond unlike Neeme
T Dude. You really expect someone who was a busy as Doug has time to reply every day, let alone to a joke comment that has been running on every single video for years?
Be realistic. He’s a douche? Do you know the guy? Im pretty sure Neeme doesnt think so because they are personal friends and he has said more than once that much of the hate for Doug Polk is unfounded.
Jacobson was ninth here with serious chip deficit to chip leaders, and eventually he won it...WOW
And the hand, the way pre flop, flop and ESPECIALLY TURN were played, Newhouse knew he was against overpair to his tens...
He wanted to make Tonking fold on the river with that overpair on board where top card paired but with so much money invested Tonking basically had to call...
Felipe Lumo
New house would have bluffed Tonking out of the pot if he never inflated it with the turn bet.
We're back for another episode of 'Polker Hands'!
once again love the editing :D, since you started adding joke here and there into "poker hands" the videos are pure perfection..
Suck em up
This chanel is so underrated it's crazy.
That was an ICM explosion
I like 11:50 he looks like he's playing with chips.
huh
Triple Range Merge (GONE WRONG)
i dont think this was a range merge. the turn bet indicates that he felt much beaten with his 10s but wasnt shure. i think his initial plan was to get away with that blocker bet and check the river in position.
but sadly for him he changed his mind once the last jack came. he thought theres a big opportunity and was pretty much shure he is beat.
the call however is only possible with some history in advance. im pretty confident we would see queens folding against a new player. it really looked like a scared and weak little jack that became confident with that river help
I don't think you understand what triple range merging is, you might want to bone up on your theory
asdf
i know what it means, but iam not shure if you take it serious or not. for to many this is actually a real thing
TheTimmyd54 good for you, keep going one day the quadruple will be doable
do more hands from HIGH STAKES POKER SEASON 4 , 5 . bested poker filmed in history
The look on Mark's face when he saw the queens was clear shock. I think it's apparent based on how he played he thought his opponent had AK AQ or 99
Old thread I know, but that doesn't make sense. Why would he go all-in if he thought that's what his opponent had? He'd still win at showdown with pocket 10s. No, I think he knew his pocket 10s were in bad shape, and that's why he turned them into a bluff.
@@iamamish agree.
@@iamamishits a reasonable take but i just have to go back to his reaction at the end of the hand. He flipped his hand over like he thought it was good and only reacted when Tonking tabled his hand. Only that board some players could call down with Ak-99…
I don't understand the turn bet. What is he trying to accomplish? Is he trying to get value out of the AK, AQ, 77-99 hands? It seems like a feeler bet where everything that beats you(or has a lot of value against you) calls, and everything that you beat folds.
The shove on the river is also interesting, as he now beats a lot of draws on the turn (that he was giving an amazing price to) and he has great showdown value. A Jack almost always leads that river, so it seems to me like he is trying to get QQ+ to fold, or he is doing it for value. Maybe he thought that QQ+ will always lead that turn, as the turn was pretty much a blank, so he thought his TT was good.
My theory, for what it's worth (not much). Due to the PF and flop action he puts Tonking on a big pair AA-QQ. On the river he correctly figures Tonking is going to check/call. His only chance to win the pot is over bet at the tight player and hope he doesn't figure it out.
Tonking probably calls him because of his action on the turn. Without the fishy turn bet the bluff probably works.
I agree, I think a turn check back followed by the river jam may have been what I would have done.
I like Tonking's check on the turn a lot. When your 3bet pre is followed up with a bet/call on the flop, you need to do something to balance your range on the turn - you can't just always check weaker hands and always bet top pair + hands. This is almost certainly why he checked, not because he was afraid that he was behind (fwiw I've played with Tonking quite a bit and he's a much better player than a lot of people give him credit for).
I think this spot in particular was a great opportunity to take this line - Tonking's image was tight/ABC at this point as Antonio was eluding to in the commentary. Newhouse probably folds to another bet on turn more often than he normally would because of this. So a check/check on the turn followed up with a value bet on the river probably has a better chance of getting value. Not to mention that checking the turn may also induce Newhouse to spazz with a hand like TT xD
Balance Schmalance. He loses value from worse hands (given that Newhouse should really be checking back TT and worse), the pot is huge, and he gives his opponent a chance to catch a free card with some Ax hands, his check sucks.
The free card is not really a big deal, since you're basically only worried about 3 cards (aces), and it's not even that likely Newhouse has an ace. Newhouse's most likely hand is what he had (middle pocket pair), and like Tom said, there is a better chance he calls a river bet after c/c turn than calls a turn bet, and almost definitely not calling three barrels, since that would just look so strong given the way Tonkin played it and the fact that it is 9 handed still at the Nov. 9.
+Evan Elsaesser He´s not only giving aces a chance but all the midpairs too so yeah its a big deal especially considering the pot is like 12 million on the turn. Not too likely Newhouse has an A? How about AQ which is definitely in his range, AJs. Maybe even a scared AK. Almost definitely not calling 3 barrels? He is 100% not snap folding the river when another J runs out. Tonkin could have lost value on the turn and got lucky Newhouse decided to turn his hand into a bluff, end of story.
Yeah... worrying about giving a 2 outer a free card is not a major concern.
Evan Elsaesser When the pot is 12m and you lose value from a call it is.
I think the weird thing about this hand is that he could have almost only done this on the river if he knew his opponent had him beat but would be in a touch spot when you think about it.
Because what value is he getting from a hand calling him on the river? Any boat snap calls, and the next best hand that's calling is an Ace high to go with the two pair, which isn't calling unless it's for a small bet like he did on the turn.
Other than that the only hands beating him are 44 or any suited 4, which is super unlikely.
So Newhouse almost had to do this knowing he was bad at showdown, but that his opponent didn't have a J because no lower pair is calling him except maybe 9s, meanwhile the only hands he is squeezing are ones like QQ KK AA. All other possible hands he has beat at showdown or snap call.
I love it when the end is not how you expected it to be!
Nice analysis as always Doug. Could you discuss the hand from this final table between Van Hoof and Larrabe KTo vs 98o?
Scott Barnett Nope. 👎
I've watched a lot of your videos Doug and I have to say ( from my limited perspective on Poker ) I've learned the most from your summation of this hand.
Thank you
Lee McDaid - Donegal 60fps This dude took me from a break even player to profitable from the free videos alone.
The number one takeaway I got from them? Bluff more. Bluffing is the absolute nuts.
What do you think about Tonkings turn play? Should he just move in after the bet? Newhouse only had 10 million behind. He can potentially represent an AK or AQ that is bluffing and get called by Jx.
One video every day... I like it! 💪
Also table dynamics made this an easier call. Newhouse's image was pretty reckless. Hence Tonking saying "If it's not the main I snap".
In Tonkings place, is it reasonable to check shove the turn with QQ+ and flushdraws?
I am loving the hand analysis video my man, great work. Do you have any recommended reading for trying to improve my game?
I have just had an idea, and I think you will like this, Doug! Given the nature of these videos - being about poker - and your surname being Polk, you could call this series Polker hands? Just a thought :) Scott
Hello! I have a question. I get why you say 8-7 voor Van Hoof is too loose, but could you explain why it would be better to make that move 5-3 suited, or 5-7 suited?
This was probably the best final table I ever saw.
Seems hard for Newhouse to rep the Jack. Most Jacks are checking the turn back trying to get to showdown with the way the hand had played out to that point. As Doug said, a four cant really be in Newhouse's range with the way the hand was played pre. I think Newhouse just went a little haywire here with an odd bluff line.
Wow, awesome analysis! Want to see more please! Thanks for doing this!
Vab hoof raised correctly ... he might had inflat the pot with just a min raise just so that his opponent if happen to have big hands , it will eleminate 1 opponent .
In additonal if his opponent has weak hand , he can take down the flop preflop or even post flop ...
He is just using a min amount to inflate the pot in hopping of opponent eleminating each other
hey doug great video as usual. excited about poker news. wanted to say i really enjoy your content and i think its cool that you share you poker knowledge.
I don't think Newhouse thought he was bluffing judging by how quick he flipped his hand and his bet gave incredible odds making it hard for villain to fold.
that was a sicker call!!!
If I were you I would religiously make videos with Daniel Negreanu in the title - these seem to get the most views.
Great video as always and good luck Doug!
'What Daniel Negreanu might think of this FT-shove! - gone sexual'
QuestKing Haha! I meant it's GTO to review even more Negreanu's hands, but I like the way you're thinking :)
Really love your paintings in the back! You should def start to sell copys of them!
Not sure what the legality is like on selling posters with other peoples likeness
It's not :)
These are awesome. Thanks, Doug!
What books do you have in the background? I'd love to give them a read
Hi Doug great stuff! Why do we want to make our opponents indifferent to call or fold on the river? Shouldnt we try to influence villains decision on the river with our sizing and our line depending if we want a call or a fold? Seems more profitable( when playing mtts and its unlikely the villain is gonna learn how to exploit you in a short period of time)
love your posters man
great show too, highly entertaining and great info also :)
Doug is the BEST!!! Keep it up!!!
$10,000,000!!!! that should get a ton of views... lol that is some slick polker action.
It couldn't be more sick.
Newhouse was in no way shape or form bluffing this river. Tonking's hand makes much more sense for it to be AK/AQs than Qs+. Given how tight they say Tonking has been playing, I doubt he has very much Jx at all when he 3Bets vs this action in front of him oop. After the flop action, Newhouse has around 14.5M behind which is less than pot and doesn't lead jam or check raise all in. He check calls a 1/4 pot size bet with barely any chips behind. When the board pairs the J on the river, we already as Newhouse think that Tonking has very little Jx that 3Bets Preflop and given his passive line on the turn given the SPR I believe that as Newhouse we should eliminate all combos of Qs since Qs should be a clear bet on the turn and shouldn't be looking to trap unlike Ks and As so now we are left with 1 combo of Js, 6 of Ks, and 6 of As vs 4 combos of AQs and 16 combos of AK. So 13 Combos that beat us and 20 that we beat that can hero call with this SPR on the river. Even if we assume that they trap Qs as well then it is 17 Combos that beat us and 20 Combos that we beat.
This is all assuming that As and Ks are trapping 100% of the time on the turn/river and AK/AQs are betting once on the flop and check calling vs this small bet on the turn. This is also assuming that AQo is not in our opponent's 3Bet range even tho it very easily could be given that the original raiser is opening like crazy with all sorts or trash. If Tonking is 3Betting AQo as well then u probably can put AJs in there as well. Let's make the 3Betting range AJs+,AQ+,Js+ and no suited connectors/low suited Ax as 3Bet bluffs given Tonking's play style so far in this situation. So now for Value/Traps Tonking has 2 combos AJs, 1 Combo Js, 6 combos of Ks, 6 combos of As = 15 Combos of hands that beat us. This is also assuming that AJs plays this had this way on the turn which is imo not very likely. For hands that we beat there are 16 combos of AK, 16 combos of AQ = 32 combos of hands that we beat that might hero call river given the SPR. Even if we assume that they trap Qs as well then it is 19 Combos that beat us and 32 Combos that we beat. Not trapping Qs=15 Combos that beat us and 32 COmbos that we beat.
Tonking played it horribly imo and got lucky that Newhouse had 10s and was smart enough to go for value when his opponents hand looked most likely to be Ace high that wanted to get to showdown. Someone tell me that Tonking wouldn't play AK/AQ the same way he did in this hand. 3Bet Preflop, 1/3 pot bet on flop, check to check/call vs small bets and check/fold vs bigger size bets, check river hoping to showdown Ace high on 2 pair board.
If Tonking had AK in this spot and Newhouse checked the river like Doug says to do then Doug would be telling us that he should Jam river since his opponent looks really weak and can sometimes get called by Ace high. Just look at Newhouse how he flips his hand over so fast thinking he is winning for sure. Tonking kind of Nit rolled him on the river and Newhouse knows it. I think Tonking in this hand hoped Newhouse had a Jack after the flop and turn then got cold feet when the Jack hit the river and his whole plan of trapping a Jack blew up in his face and he didn't know what to do. Obviously any non Ace, King or Heart river and Tonking probably Snap calls if Newhouse jams.
awful analysis. pros wouldn't call with A high
TLDR, I think i know more than I do
@@WhatAreYouNew Lol so u are saying Tonking is a pro... nice 1 genius. This hand shows the opposite. Too bad in 2019 morons are given a voice so I have to talk to people like you.
TLDR you didn't even read my post so stfu.
@@WhatAreYouNew Keep slobbering on Doug's knob tho, it is clearly what you are best at.
your analysis is still awful, and you're a tool -- way to go!
Newhouse is not bluffing. Even when Tonking starts excitedly flipping his hand over, Newhouse still doesn't believe he's beat.
really a great hand to watch but i think i would have check back on the turn and call most river bets for showdown
great video, one day i want to be a poker pro like you i love playing. keep doing this content you are the best
Is Newhouse still playing?
Doug please do hand breakdowns from WSOP 2022 main event !!!!
If i was in Tonkings shoes i might of had to put a nice size bet on the turn maybe even shove, but given the way he check calls and checks river id have to lean towards a call for showdown cause at tht point my hand is under reped even though its a huge mistake if im wrong i think puting in the call and a short prayer would be the best choice!
damn, great vid bro , learned quite a bit thanks
I had to skip a Ad for your channel before this video lol.
Great stuff Doug.
Doug, I think maybe Newhouse was thinking he was value betting against Ace high? The way Newhouse showed his hand, he thought he was good.
nope, he described his thoughts in an interview afterwards. He put Tonking on that sort of hand, and saw the J on river as "an opportunity". He said if the river had been a brick he would've checked.
Ace high isn't calling a River shove? How is it a value bet?
Love your vids!
4:44 throwin up those gang signs
Hey Doug, have you ever considered putting the title of the series "poker hands" in the video title? I think it would help to make things less confusing
Ok this isn’t just another tournament it’s the main even final table with HUGE pay bumps after a 4 month delay I am folding my way to 8th ( unless I get aces ). Then after I pick up another $200k. I go for the win !
If a heart falls off on the river. With the 10 of hearts. Does it make it a better bluff? Or is it a non-factor?
I think if a third heart hits the river instead of double-pairing the board, it's a worse spot for Newhouse to bluff. How many heart draws does Newhouse call flop and lead turn with? A2, A3, and A5 hearts are better three-bet candidates preflop than calling raise and three-bet, so it's hard to represent those. A6 through A9 hearts should have folded flop or before. AQ and AK hearts should be three-betting preflop. That leaves AT hearts as the only hand that could maybe take the line of call pre, call flop, and bet turn of all the ace flushes. KQ, KT, QT, and maybe T9 hearts also could take that line. So that makes 3-5 hands that make a flush on the river versus all the bluffs that take that line. Seems like over-bluffing to me, and if this bluff was spotted, the flush bluff seems even easier to call.
That was hard too watch, seeing the best player at the table (besides Jacobson) bust so early. Would have loved to see these two heads up.
Newhouse had the same sort of brain explosion that he had a dig at Anton Morgenstern in the WSOP in 2013
on the footage u can hear the nit say "i would have snap called but it was the main"
Thanks Doug, its always interesting to listen and learn. Hello from Saint- Petersburg Russia. I hope than one day i will win some major tournament, so far my best score is just 1k$ lol but i play micro limits and play in free time..)
Doug, do you always play GTO, regardless of how your opponent plays?
i think i've heard him say he makes some slight exploitative adjustments but all in all he likes to stick to a more theory based style that he knows is good.
Mark's all in posture was so shaky, while Tonking's check on the turn screams strength!
cocaine is a hell of a drug
the all in surely is that his representing a Jack and making a boat on the river
u explain that 87 off is way too weak and perhaps he should mix it up with 53 suited or 75 suited, but isn't it true that a suited hand only gives you a 2% advantage over non suited? or is that misinformation? i heard that somewhere and found it hard to believe, but it always stuck with me. great videos btw
copy and paste from above:
They're all bad hands, but at least 53s and 75s can flop monster draws. Also Imagine the BB is afraid to 3Bet and only does so with AA, KK, QQ, AK.
Let's say they flat with hands like: JJ-99,AQs-ATs,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,AQo-AJo,KQo
87o has 31.6% equity while 53s and 75s have 34.7% -----> So yes, it's a 3.1% difference, but 3.1% is 6.2% ROI (return on investment)
Yeah we see it as bluff cuz we know both players card's Doug, but if you put yourself in his position you'll be betting here thinking u have strongest hands y right cuz jack went on river that means hes less likely to have jack, tonking could easyl be calling here with A5's or AK AQ A10 KQ....i think newhouse did great play here. Keep up good work polkerinho
Newhouse needs to step up a limit where his bets will be respected.
lol
So GTO-wise this was a bad call from Tonking b/c he has better hands in his range that he can call river with: AJs, AA,KK??
I don't think so. I think Doug was saying that GTO wise it was a bad bluff by Newhouse cuz TT is way too high in his range and if he's bluffing TT there, he'll be way over bluffing, plus he has decent show down value. For Tonking I think Doug was saying it was a tough spot but if you think your opponent is over bluffing then it's a call.
Owneddddd
I m not sure i understand, but u agree with bluffing with TT Doug right?
Mark Newhouse knows he's beat 99% of the time IF he gets called on this river. Therefor, the all in is a bluff.
But Doug didnt make it clear enough
He does not.
Teo Teo He says it, just not directly :) - Esfandiari did sort of say it at 10:00
But you're right, he could have said more directly.
Just joking guys he was clearly mad inside with that move, and kept repeating it :>
Once tonking called the turn, Newhouse should have checked back river hoping he has AK! River shoving the tightest nit who 3 bets made no sense!
Miss spoke at the end, tonking had queens
when you say at 13:30 that he shouldn't be bettng his tens here because it's to high up in his range, you mean that he shouldn't be BLUFFING his tens.
Polk, why dont you call this Douger hands?
tbh and not being results oriented after Newhouse reaction I guess I would call.
You should call it Polker Hands!
lol tonking is such a callingstation
Sharkzz1 even thou he won, I think that was a horrible call!
On your bike Newhouse, on your bike.
nice call by honky tonk
So Newhouse's all-in was the wrong decision but it was his only way of winning and immediately after the result Polk says it was a tough decision for Tonking.
He could have checked back and shown the best hand. Unlikely, but better than the spew that occurred.
I disagree on this one. Newhouse knew his only way to win the hand was jam and that's what he did. He could also be repping pocket Kings or pocket Aces.
do poker players play different live than online aside from making moves off reading ppl
IMO newhouse will almost never have a jack in this spot.. I think he would ck behind the turn 100% of the times.. I dont see mutch sense in beting a jack in the turn, when u have 14kk behind and the pot 16kk, and the vilain range its so strong. He could easily check shove the turn, and what would you do? so imo he should always ck the turn with the J.. thats why its a easy call on the river.. What do you think Doug??
Sums up the guy: the way he slams his cards down like a little punk after he sees 10's. He can say what he wants but he had no idea if he was beat or not
holy shit. what a fucking call!
The thumbnails look better with the click bait imo
If he had the jack he would have value bet. Prime example of when all in shows weakness.
he shoulda check raised that turn to 12mill
see mark newhouse his face when he heard call he did not look happy so clearly in his mind was a bluf
doug polk fish of fishes!
Damn didnt know Jacobson started 9th when he won
Ok both players are sick here. Easy can someone have hand like J or why not pocket 4. But in fact he is maybe read him body langugues. When you bluff you are usually little more nervus. However in live poker is easier to unterstand a bluff than to make a great bluff
On tonking checking the turn why do you assume hes checking because hes scared? In my mind hes checking to simulate giving up because hes bluffing to induce a bet. Yes you agree? No you dont?
Its rare hes going to induce a bet on that board after Newhouse calls flop, if Newhouse had played the hand correctly it would have gone check check , check check and Tonkin ends up losing value, as it turns out he got lucky Newhouse bet turn and decided to turn his hand into a bluff...
2:38 is 53 suited really better to play than 78 offsuit though? Lol. This comment threw me off. How is 53 suited a good example of a hand that would be better to play than 78?
No one has a response to this??? He said 53 suited and 57 suited are better hands to open with from the hijack than 78 offsuit
what about changing the title to 'Sick POLKER Bluff! ALL IN With $10,000,000 On The Line'
next hand> Politano call with 72
it is still a very hard call on the river
I am not sure if even Newhouse knew by himself if he was bluffing or valuebetting...
Dude, hahaha. No wonder they are at the FT and you're not. Great vlogging skills though, I enjoyed
Dude, hahaha. No wonder he’s a millionaire off poker and you’re not.
Why make a giant bluff in 9th?
imo it was a value bet
James A. Garfield stop