In my experience the mercy system for drops is direly insufficient - it kicks in way too late, its increments are miniscule, and then it resets to zero at the first possible drop. The jar system was way more consistent and in my opinion more preferable.
BOOOOM!!!!! Proof is in the pudding!!!! Thanks so much for doing it at a larger scale than what most of us could do. The developers can go pound sand. DB Preacher FTW! Players validated!
@@realLagMaster based on their responses that I have documented in emails from them, they're 100000% standing behind the changes, saying they work. They say it sucks to have bad runs and they will happen, but good runs will happen too. Clearly most players (and now backed up by data), there are clearly MORE bad runs than there are good runs. It's going to take a huge # of players to complain, and STOP spending, for them to even sniff at the thought of reverting imo. Hope I'm wrong, but i don't see that happening.
@@realLagMaster % The absurd system change exist because the ones who call the shots for Tacticus requisitions are bunch of soulless execs who only care about money and has no passion toward 40k at all. Which is why they don't bother to deliver a product that an average 40k Fans can enjoy
Thanks DB:) Very interesting. I actually think the mercy system is good in principle - allowing higher percentage reward streaks. I've enjoyed some really beneficial results with it. But I also think the mercy system ramps up too slowly at its start (with campaigns, and req scrolls especially!).
This mirrors my own experience. Farming legendary materials has been productive, but common - rare far less so. Since some of these are much more needed, especially to early game, these changes are bad. The predictability of the jar system was slow and steady. You didnt spend 60 energy and feel jibbed.
I'm glad you made this video going through the math. It basically validates everything I've been feeling since the new update dropped. The buckets sucked because it guaranteed you fails over a long period of farming and the pity sucks because it kicks in way too late and is useless for low rarity items.
Blunt math. Appreciate you taking the time to do it. That statistical deviancy away from intended targets is wild. No wonder it 'feels' off. *Edit* Whole other topic but thats encroaching on false advertising which some countries (EU, Aus) take very seriously considering the crackdown on gambling in mobile games over the last few years.
Great video. Thanks for making this data sheets. Any chance you can make some graphs for xp in the game. Content creators don't talk about how broken xp grind in tacticus. My progress constantly halted by books. It's insane how hard it is to lvl up your characters in this game.
I'm going to stop. Because I can't get my dopamine hit randomly and sufficiently. Waiting 20h to farm something and have ZERO reward, come back the next day to have 2 is breacking me. The devs think big numbers. But as a player I care about the randomization of only the last 20 pulls.
How about a combination of jar system and mercy system? Set number of guaranteed drops with the rest having the mercy system applied? The mercy system wouldn’t trigger for the guaranteed jar ones, just the not guaranteed ones.
Ultimately, it does not matter. Because what matters is player experience. A bad streak feels a lot worse than a good streak feels good. Especially if you started with the bad streak, in which case the lucky streaks barely register! And that is terrible game design.
I'm happy that you are getting roughly the same numbers as I am. Especially with common mirror results, I have over 1,000 observations and the (low) rate falls outside 1 standard deviation. Everything else is a bit low (just like you found with 100 observations) excepting elite rates which are higher than expected (yay, good!). Uncommon mirrors started off too low, then gradually raised up but didn't hit their advertised rate until I had over 500 observations (roughly 30 days). I have done almost no testing on non-mirror and non-elite campaign drops, so I'm happy to see that you did. I do hope they revert to the jar system again, but hope is the first step on the road to disappointment.
Yeah I am really curious to see if there are any changes coming with the next patch. It feels like they made changes, but they haven’t improved the system in any way.
I notably went 2 out of 24 on indominus elite 39 recently over a week thats less than 10% but other legendarys elites especially not from indomitus elite been more reasonable its been better lately.
First of all thanks for grinding through this Preacher! One statistical thought: isn’t the negative deviation even worse than you calculated? If I am not mistaken you counted the „post mercy“ upgrades and compared to the a priori probabilities given by the devs. Now the latter are unbuffed which means the post mercy buffed outcome should be much better than the initial number given for any first pull?
Thanks. I could bet my left arm that common/uncommon are now worse than in jar system. And as we all need all rarities this could translate into players now needing more energy. Also I personally can swallow misses on legendaries much easier than on commons…
The charge the dev. made was kind of silly. What the players wanted was higher drop rates, not a more complicated system. It would, therefore, have been much simpler to address the issue by increasing the drop rates by 5-10% in the existing system than to develop a completely new system with a very complicated math behind it. The devs doesn't seem to have the drop rates for this very complicated system figured out.
Im a cynic, so i think they’re just BSing everyone. When such simple alternatives exist, it just shows to me that theyre using this current method for their own gain, the game has been getting grindier and grindier after all
Diamond 3 is already a tall order for a player to commit the grind and they decided players deserve a more painful process to raise their units to Silver/Gold 1
I don't understand why the Devs decided to overhaul an upgrade drop system in a way that no one wanted or asked for, and made it worse in the process. I guess it's more "fun" for them to write new code than to go back and implement all of the QoL changes that players have been begging for forever.
I did a quick statistical check on your data, to see if the results were within the 90% confidence interval. You can use an online calculator with a sample size of 100 (except regular legendary at 50) and x successes, to calculate a range that the actual drop rate is 90% likely to be within. For example, your 54 uncommon drops from regular campaign missions suggests the actual drop rate is 90% likely to be between 45.3% and 62.5%. The Proposed Reward% in your video is 61%, so the official drop rate falls within the confidence interval on that sample. Overall there were two results where the official drop rate falls outside the 90% confidence interval. Your drop rate for common upgrades from the mirror campaign implies the drop rate should be 67.9% to 82.9%, so the official 83% is just outside the range. Similarly, your drop rate for legendary upgrades in the elite campaign implies the drop rate should be 42.3% to 59.6%, with the official rate of 41% just below. With 21 tests, on average 2.1 of them will fall outside the 90% confidence interval due to randomness. So statistically the results aren't at all surprising. However, you really notice when you get a run of say one uncommon drop from eight early Indomitus battles, and probably mentally skip the good luck when you get six common drops in a row, so psychologically the new system feels worse, even if it is overall an improvement in drop rates. The other thing I found surprising was just how much some of the percentages are better than the base% value shown on the dice. Rare drops from regular campaigns were 20%, now the effective drop rate is 33% for example
Yeah I’m very well versed in statistics, this video was made using practical methodologies as the community can absorb it more easily. I agree with everything you wrote here though.
I hope they revert as well. Even if it does balance out on a larger scale it still means some people are unlucky and others are lucky. This give the game the perception of being unbalanced. Negative Perceptions, true or not, can lead to a loss of players if not correctly quickly.
I don't think it balances out on a larger scale, I think they did their math on a larger scale which players are unable to duplicate. They should've done their math at realistic numbers to test the system instead of saying "over 100,000 rolls, this is actually better!" We don't roll 100,000 times, we roll 3-10 times in most cases. I could be wrong, but since the numbers are legitimately off, I think it's a reasonable theory as to maybe what happened and what could be the solution.
Thank you for all the pulls you had to do and the video. My experience from this morning: 20 pulls for a common item, 4 items… Not exactly 75%. The jar system was more fair , especially for medium/ low level players that don’t have a lot of energy or unlocked elite campaigns. Mercy system could be ok for the shards but not for the items. Furthermore there was a change in the chance of getting orbs in onslaught mode. For a slightly higher chance to get legendary shards from scroll pulls I now get far lower chance to get an orb. Remember when you were assured to get one every onslaught run? So I can’t develop all my other characters now…. Without orbs all my shards are useless. There should be a balance otherwise I won’t be able to continue upgrading to keep up with the increasing difficulty of the battles whatever my units. Even Calgar at iron1 can’t stand against hordes of grots Gold1 .
I actually like the changes from a elite zone level. Ive noticed i get much more double drops for rares, shards, and epics on elite nodes. Only occasionally do i notice a dry streak on mirror or etc. However, i can see newer players getting shafted by these changes. While i would like the changes to stay for veteran players, eomething needs to give for newer players. My thoughts are after the first miss, you get a boost in frop rate, scaling up to 100% until you get a drop. Additionally, the pitty of 2-3 materials per regular nodes should be reinstated ( i hated when i got only 1 or 2 charscter shards when starting, it really slowed the game to a crawl since i could not progress eithout waiting days. This shouldnt be the case when you start a game like this. ) Hopefully they start taking the new player/invoarding experience seriously sooner versus later. As it stands, this game is volutile, and is not setup for a long term player engagment and retention.
Thank you so much for making this video, such a GREAT video. All of the Mercy kicks in WAY too late. Each attempt should increase the % by 150% of the probability. Example: 20% and don’t get the Upgrade Attempt 2: should be 30% Attempt 3: 45% Reqs are underwhelming too. Guarantee should be 100% after 200 Summons.
Awesome stuff thanks. Really interesting as always. I’ve not analysed my results but it feels like elite nodes are a bit better and others a bit worse after the change. Interesting how many of the nodes are giving less than they should statistically. I remember your other video on requisitions where most of the probabilities seemed to be just a little off against the player. It is gambling and it feels like they’re stacking the deck just a little. In general the mercy system is just absurdly mean so as to be almost worthless. Having something rubbish is worse than nothing for making people moan. No Christmas bonus at all somehow feels better than some free paperclips.
Yeah in the past, we were pretty much spot on with the variance, even after 100 pulls. Now it’s wildly all over the place. I imagine everyone is having a very different experience with 100 pulls. It’s a weird system to have chosen
I don’t think the system as is such is odd. A set % chance every time is fine even if it does give the possibility of long bad luck streaks. Statistically there’s some poor sod out there who’ll never get a single thing without the mercy system. It’s just the implementation seems suspect. As you say, the % are off and it doesn’t just seem to be observation bias where you remember the bad times more than the good. The jar system did at least even out the good/bad luck and seemed to work ok so no idea why they made a change nobody had asked for instead of all the other things people do want. Well, actually yes of course I know why! If you’re not too bored of stats by now, any chance you could do an analysis on the drops from Onslaught? My biased observation is that orbs don’t drop anywhere near as often as they should.
Glad I am not alone and I have raised a ticket for it. The response was hard to take that they are looking into it but it will feel hard when I am in an unlucky streak. I was get 20% drop chance on uncommon artificial vertebrae I.e 2 in 10 drops which almost made me give up on the game!
Already Tried 60 pulls ever since the requisition update and I can only say that Snowprint did a splendid job for making Tacticus unpalatable for average 40k Fans. Good job on Snowprint for making people kept hating their Studio and products even more
My experience. Leggy seems to be OK, not better, not worse. The rest... The problem with the new system is if you draw 10.000 times, you will be very close to what the developers stated. But this game sometimes only needs a couple of items to be pulled of one type and then move on and there you might get really unlucky and only pull on the mercy drop and thats complete garbage. They should increase the mercy counter after the first fail from lets say 20% to 55, then 80, then 100. So its a bigger Chance after the first fail already. hope this gets corrected soon. ill bet one bottle of wodka it will take more then a year though
With Mercy, I've pulled 1 uncommon out of 9 tries on Mirror. Ive also pulled 3 Legendary items in a row on Elite, a day after 3 fails in a row on the came node. Does not feel great. I prefer to get rewards 60% of the time rather than a 60% chance each time.
Even if this averages out over a bigger data set, the result is it feels much less satisfying. I don't like the way they are making "fun" feel more like gambling. I'm going to stop my son playing until things change. I get the reqs are gambling but they were so rare. This is a core / daily mechanism of the game. How much Dev time spent on this when we've been waiting so long for the reork and another campaign...... Not impressed 😢
For me it feels like a + Dev Update and a - Player Update. 12 trys to get 3 Uncommen items my Personal Record. My other negativ Record is 50 Requisition Drops with only Grey Rewards... I am cursed i think😅
So a chance for common item is 75% both on regular and early Indomitus and the only difference is the cost of a raid? Am I right? So why you have +2,7% difference for early Indomitus but -4,3% for the regular? Maybe because 100 raids is too small amount to base any conclusions on it.
statisticaly speaking... the bigger the sample the more accurate the results... if u had done i.e. 1000 pulls from each node then the "result" numbers would be closer to the percentages... if u had done less pulls i.e. 10 from each node then we would expect to see statistic anomalies ... we could pull 10 or 9 lege in a row for example... i assume that game devs have the ability to test the mechanism with larger samples and decide if its accurate or no... sorry for any typo... english is not my native language...
What this means is that newer players will be even more screwed in a game that doesn't allow new players to catch up. With character releases nearly every two weeks, the requisition pool is garbage, especially with MoW being part of it too and cluttering it up. But new players have nearly no chance of pulling legendaries, are farming in the regular nodes until they unlock elites and with lower farm rates, they are even slower catching up. If I were to join tacticus now instead of nearly 1.5 years ago, I think I wouldn't even bother.
It's been almost 5 weeks of this and they have not really addressed it. Shameful behavior both in how this was implemented (no one was really asking for this) and the complete lack of empathy or action to correct this. I use Tacticus Planner and only hit elites unless there isn't an elite. Common drops are ridiculously bad from elites. I routinely get 3-4 drops per 30 energy. Uncommons are bad but not as bad. Rares feel ok because you always get something. Epic I don't have a good feel for. Legendary though, way more than the old system IMO. I still get shutout but it is rare and 2 for 30 energy is more common than 0 for 30.
I think we will see in the patch notes if it has been addressed or not, they are generally a bit quiet on topics like this even though they are working hard behind the scenes
I dont know how broken that system can be, sometime I will get 10 Common on the same stage, sometime around 3 or 4. Im currently farming like a mad Hound Ahriman, and for 90 energy I usualy get on average 8 or 9 Ahri Shard...
Short answer: yes Long answer: since it's a probability, then it means that if we built a graph on the number of successes for all the players, we would see extremes on the sides, so there will be small amount of players getting all the upgrades and some amount of players who will get only one upgrade from 10 runs. This breaks game economy, as there will be "marked by system" players who are just too lucky and progressing too quickly and, more importantly, there will be number of players, who will drop the game after few days of not getting upgrades at all. Simple fact of this "lower bracket" existing turns this game into casino
This. It doesn't help that the probability is set for the large enough number of iterations. Since individual players will not be doing enough "pulls", some of them will get very, very bad results. Jar system was not perfect, but it was reliable and fair.
The biggest issue is the lack of campaign so you just can’t upgrade many characters like the blood angels since they have only few battles… Also the mercy system is broken. I very much doubt the % for the drops are true, it’s probably 10 to 20% less than what they show. I did many tests and it’s just not right.
Oh man, YOU DEFINITELY LOSE PROGRES BETWEEN SESSIONS!! That's what is most broken on this No Mercy system! I had so many times 87 + 17 % after 5 failed attempt on common and depleted energy and when I came back, puff everything lost!!
Drops have gotten so much worse. Sure, one day a week you might get 6 rares from a ten raid, but i noticed that i get far less common upgrades from raiding now. As for reqs, nothing has changed. I got 5 shards so many times , why is 5 or 10 shards an option for something so hard to acquire? Snowprint are getting the GW complex
I've had better luck with legendary and epic drops with the new system. Rare, no change (100% for elite missions). Common and uncommon, far worse luck.
Farming Calgar in normal campaign, got 7/10 shards 2 days in a row. This was not possible with the jar system (got 6/10 one time, following getting a 0/10 on the previous day). I think the new system just needs a tweak to the numbers that would take the number of raids possible for the day into account. If the drop rate is 75% in a normal campaign and you got zero on your first 3 raids, the mercy system should make it so the next 7 have a 100% drop rate.
In my experience the mercy system for drops is direly insufficient - it kicks in way too late, its increments are miniscule, and then it resets to zero at the first possible drop. The jar system was way more consistent and in my opinion more preferable.
For me too 100%
I dont have problems with randomity, but not like how it works. All in all it feels worse
When I get 4/10 with 83% chance it's really disappointing
Yeah, I hate statistics 😂😂
or 1/10 with 40%
Yeah, 83% is broken. I think tfhis should be called No Mercy!
BOOOOM!!!!! Proof is in the pudding!!!! Thanks so much for doing it at a larger scale than what most of us could do. The developers can go pound sand. DB Preacher FTW! Players validated!
Hehe, yep, that’s what I thought too!
Devs are human and wanted a better system. They failed, but if we properly argument it I am sure they will revert.
@@realLagMaster based on their responses that I have documented in emails from them, they're 100000% standing behind the changes, saying they work. They say it sucks to have bad runs and they will happen, but good runs will happen too. Clearly most players (and now backed up by data), there are clearly MORE bad runs than there are good runs. It's going to take a huge # of players to complain, and STOP spending, for them to even sniff at the thought of reverting imo. Hope I'm wrong, but i don't see that happening.
Devs are human… all the more reason to doubt their words considering their repeated dumb actions lol
@@realLagMaster % The absurd system change exist because the ones who call the shots for Tacticus requisitions are bunch of soulless execs who only care about money and has no passion toward 40k at all. Which is why they don't bother to deliver a product that an average 40k Fans can enjoy
Thanks DB:) Very interesting.
I actually think the mercy system is good in principle - allowing higher percentage reward streaks. I've enjoyed some really beneficial results with it. But I also think the mercy system ramps up too slowly at its start (with campaigns, and req scrolls especially!).
Yep, I think it’s safe to say that we should hope for tweaks this coming patch notes
If they want to keep it that way, make mercy system trigger faster and make it slightly more sufficient.
That definitely seems to be the overall ask from the players
This mirrors my own experience.
Farming legendary materials has been productive, but common - rare far less so.
Since some of these are much more needed, especially to early game, these changes are bad.
The predictability of the jar system was slow and steady. You didnt spend 60 energy and feel jibbed.
That’s basically what I think. I feel they made a mistake changing the jar system. Over the long term, it was spot on
I'm glad you made this video going through the math. It basically validates everything I've been feeling since the new update dropped. The buckets sucked because it guaranteed you fails over a long period of farming and the pity sucks because it kicks in way too late and is useless for low rarity items.
Yep, that sums it up very well! 👌
the Jar system at least gave people a better blueprint to plan their progress, as the % hit rate was almost always accurate, +/- 1
Blunt math. Appreciate you taking the time to do it. That statistical deviancy away from intended targets is wild. No wonder it 'feels' off. *Edit* Whole other topic but thats encroaching on false advertising which some countries (EU, Aus) take very seriously considering the crackdown on gambling in mobile games over the last few years.
That’s very true on the legal issue! Curious to see how things are changed
Great video. Thanks for making this data sheets. Any chance you can make some graphs for xp in the game. Content creators don't talk about how broken xp grind in tacticus. My progress constantly halted by books. It's insane how hard it is to lvl up your characters in this game.
I did a whole video on that topic here: Does levelling to D3 take too long??
ruclips.net/video/_P6TUSm5ExY/видео.html
I'm going to stop. Because I can't get my dopamine hit randomly and sufficiently. Waiting 20h to farm something and have ZERO reward, come back the next day to have 2 is breacking me.
The devs think big numbers. But as a player I care about the randomization of only the last 20 pulls.
Well definitely not the course of action I would go for but you have to be happy in this life with whatever you do brother. This is a game after all!
How about a combination of jar system and mercy system? Set number of guaranteed drops with the rest having the mercy system applied? The mercy system wouldn’t trigger for the guaranteed jar ones, just the not guaranteed ones.
I am very curious to see what happens!
Ultimately, it does not matter.
Because what matters is player experience. A bad streak feels a lot worse than a good streak feels good. Especially if you started with the bad streak, in which case the lucky streaks barely register!
And that is terrible game design.
Incredibly true!
Exactly. The developers not realizing this means they are quite bad at their job.
I'm happy that you are getting roughly the same numbers as I am. Especially with common mirror results, I have over 1,000 observations and the (low) rate falls outside 1 standard deviation. Everything else is a bit low (just like you found with 100 observations) excepting elite rates which are higher than expected (yay, good!).
Uncommon mirrors started off too low, then gradually raised up but didn't hit their advertised rate until I had over 500 observations (roughly 30 days). I have done almost no testing on non-mirror and non-elite campaign drops, so I'm happy to see that you did.
I do hope they revert to the jar system again, but hope is the first step on the road to disappointment.
Yeah I am really curious to see if there are any changes coming with the next patch. It feels like they made changes, but they haven’t improved the system in any way.
Great work for the community 💪🏼
Thank you ❤️
I notably went 2 out of 24 on indominus elite 39 recently over a week thats less than 10% but other legendarys elites especially not from indomitus elite been more reasonable its been better lately.
Oof, that’s the streaks you don’t want
First of all thanks for grinding through this Preacher!
One statistical thought: isn’t the negative deviation even worse than you calculated? If I am not mistaken you counted the „post mercy“ upgrades and compared to the a priori probabilities given by the devs. Now the latter are unbuffed which means the post mercy buffed outcome should be much better than the initial number given for any first pull?
Yeah I realised this after I finished the video… I should have compared to the jar system as well 🤦♂️🤦♂️
Thanks. I could bet my left arm that common/uncommon are now worse than in jar system. And as we all need all rarities this could translate into players now needing more energy. Also I personally can swallow misses on legendaries much easier than on commons…
The charge the dev. made was kind of silly. What the players wanted was higher drop rates, not a more complicated system. It would, therefore, have been much simpler to address the issue by increasing the drop rates by 5-10% in the existing system than to develop a completely new system with a very complicated math behind it. The devs doesn't seem to have the drop rates for this very complicated system figured out.
Yeah I’m not sure why they thought a different system like they have given us would change it. I feel they tackled the wrong goal with this change
Im a cynic, so i think they’re just BSing everyone. When such simple alternatives exist, it just shows to me that theyre using this current method for their own gain, the game has been getting grindier and grindier after all
Diamond 3 is already a tall order for a player to commit the grind and they decided players deserve a more painful process to raise their units to Silver/Gold 1
I don't understand why the Devs decided to overhaul an upgrade drop system in a way that no one wanted or asked for, and made it worse in the process. I guess it's more "fun" for them to write new code than to go back and implement all of the QoL changes that players have been begging for forever.
That’s a great question too. They didn’t really make it better, just different and in my world, you don’t bother unless its better.
I did a quick statistical check on your data, to see if the results were within the 90% confidence interval. You can use an online calculator with a sample size of 100 (except regular legendary at 50) and x successes, to calculate a range that the actual drop rate is 90% likely to be within. For example, your 54 uncommon drops from regular campaign missions suggests the actual drop rate is 90% likely to be between 45.3% and 62.5%. The Proposed Reward% in your video is 61%, so the official drop rate falls within the confidence interval on that sample.
Overall there were two results where the official drop rate falls outside the 90% confidence interval. Your drop rate for common upgrades from the mirror campaign implies the drop rate should be 67.9% to 82.9%, so the official 83% is just outside the range. Similarly, your drop rate for legendary upgrades in the elite campaign implies the drop rate should be 42.3% to 59.6%, with the official rate of 41% just below.
With 21 tests, on average 2.1 of them will fall outside the 90% confidence interval due to randomness. So statistically the results aren't at all surprising.
However, you really notice when you get a run of say one uncommon drop from eight early Indomitus battles, and probably mentally skip the good luck when you get six common drops in a row, so psychologically the new system feels worse, even if it is overall an improvement in drop rates.
The other thing I found surprising was just how much some of the percentages are better than the base% value shown on the dice. Rare drops from regular campaigns were 20%, now the effective drop rate is 33% for example
Yeah I’m very well versed in statistics, this video was made using practical methodologies as the community can absorb it more easily. I agree with everything you wrote here though.
My stats knowledge clearly miles away from yours but are you saying it’s actually working as intended but feels worse? If so, nice job Snowprint!
@@Kumquat666 That's a good summary. It's actually better, but feels worse!
Thank you DB, legedary items are a pain to farm now, L X orbs too....
Everywhere we are hitting gates blocking our paths!
I hope they revert as well. Even if it does balance out on a larger scale it still means some people are unlucky and others are lucky. This give the game the perception of being unbalanced. Negative Perceptions, true or not, can lead to a loss of players if not correctly quickly.
Losing streaks are more painful than winning streaks and so it’s tough to balance a game in reality!
I don't think it balances out on a larger scale, I think they did their math on a larger scale which players are unable to duplicate. They should've done their math at realistic numbers to test the system instead of saying "over 100,000 rolls, this is actually better!" We don't roll 100,000 times, we roll 3-10 times in most cases. I could be wrong, but since the numbers are legitimately off, I think it's a reasonable theory as to maybe what happened and what could be the solution.
Great video and thanks for making it; it 100% matches with what my gut perceived but I had no real way to prove anything.
You are very welcome! Let’s hope we see changes coming!
Thank you for all the pulls you had to do and the video. My experience from this morning: 20 pulls for a common item, 4 items… Not exactly 75%. The jar system was more fair , especially for medium/ low level players that don’t have a lot of energy or unlocked elite campaigns. Mercy system could be ok for the shards but not for the items. Furthermore there was a change in the chance of getting orbs in onslaught mode. For a slightly higher chance to get legendary shards from scroll pulls I now get far lower chance to get an orb. Remember when you were assured to get one every onslaught run? So I can’t develop all my other characters now…. Without orbs all my shards are useless. There should be a balance otherwise I won’t be able to continue upgrading to keep up with the increasing difficulty of the battles whatever my units. Even Calgar at iron1 can’t stand against hordes of grots Gold1 .
Yeah I am curious to see how they fix it!
I actually like the changes from a elite zone level.
Ive noticed i get much more double drops for rares, shards, and epics on elite nodes. Only occasionally do i notice a dry streak on mirror or etc.
However, i can see newer players getting shafted by these changes. While i would like the changes to stay for veteran players, eomething needs to give for newer players.
My thoughts are after the first miss, you get a boost in frop rate, scaling up to 100% until you get a drop. Additionally, the pitty of 2-3 materials per regular nodes should be reinstated ( i hated when i got only 1 or 2 charscter shards when starting, it really slowed the game to a crawl since i could not progress eithout waiting days. This shouldnt be the case when you start a game like this. )
Hopefully they start taking the new player/invoarding experience seriously sooner versus later. As it stands, this game is volutile, and is not setup for a long term player engagment and retention.
Yeah I think the numbers tweak you recommend definitely could move things into a better direction
Thank you so much for making this video, such a GREAT video.
All of the Mercy kicks in WAY too late. Each attempt should increase the % by 150% of the probability.
Example:
20% and don’t get the Upgrade
Attempt 2: should be 30%
Attempt 3: 45%
Reqs are underwhelming too. Guarantee should be 100% after 200 Summons.
Thank you for the kind words! ❤️
Awesome stuff thanks. Really interesting as always. I’ve not analysed my results but it feels like elite nodes are a bit better and others a bit worse after the change.
Interesting how many of the nodes are giving less than they should statistically. I remember your other video on requisitions where most of the probabilities seemed to be just a little off against the player. It is gambling and it feels like they’re stacking the deck just a little.
In general the mercy system is just absurdly mean so as to be almost worthless. Having something rubbish is worse than nothing for making people moan. No Christmas bonus at all somehow feels better than some free paperclips.
Yeah in the past, we were pretty much spot on with the variance, even after 100 pulls. Now it’s wildly all over the place. I imagine everyone is having a very different experience with 100 pulls. It’s a weird system to have chosen
I don’t think the system as is such is odd. A set % chance every time is fine even if it does give the possibility of long bad luck streaks. Statistically there’s some poor sod out there who’ll never get a single thing without the mercy system. It’s just the implementation seems suspect. As you say, the % are off and it doesn’t just seem to be observation bias where you remember the bad times more than the good.
The jar system did at least even out the good/bad luck and seemed to work ok so no idea why they made a change nobody had asked for instead of all the other things people do want. Well, actually yes of course I know why!
If you’re not too bored of stats by now, any chance you could do an analysis on the drops from Onslaught? My biased observation is that orbs don’t drop anywhere near as often as they should.
Yeah let me add it to the list, I think that is a good one to dip into because I also wonder how the long term looks like there! Thanks for the idea
Glad I am not alone and I have raised a ticket for it. The response was hard to take that they are looking into it but it will feel hard when I am in an unlucky streak. I was get 20% drop chance on uncommon artificial vertebrae I.e 2 in 10 drops which almost made me give up on the game!
There have been improvements in the latest patch, I’ll do an update around that soon
Already Tried 60 pulls ever since the requisition update and I can only say that Snowprint did a splendid job for making Tacticus unpalatable for average 40k Fans.
Good job on Snowprint for making people kept hating their Studio and products even more
Yeah this hasn’t been their most successful change ever
My experience. Leggy seems to be OK, not better, not worse. The rest... The problem with the new system is if you draw 10.000 times, you will be very close to what the developers stated. But this game sometimes only needs a couple of items to be pulled of one type and then move on and there you might get really unlucky and only pull on the mercy drop and thats complete garbage. They should increase the mercy counter after the first fail from lets say 20% to 55, then 80, then 100. So its a bigger Chance after the first fail already. hope this gets corrected soon. ill bet one bottle of wodka it will take more then a year though
Only if the maths is right in the system ofc
@DBPreacherTacticus true
With Mercy, I've pulled 1 uncommon out of 9 tries on Mirror.
Ive also pulled 3 Legendary items in a row on Elite, a day after 3 fails in a row on the came node.
Does not feel great.
I prefer to get rewards 60% of the time rather than a 60% chance each time.
Yeah I prefer the certainty rather than this system too
Even if this averages out over a bigger data set, the result is it feels much less satisfying. I don't like the way they are making "fun" feel more like gambling. I'm going to stop my son playing until things change. I get the reqs are gambling but they were so rare. This is a core / daily mechanism of the game. How much Dev time spent on this when we've been waiting so long for the reork and another campaign...... Not impressed 😢
Hopefully your son gets to play something nice!
For me it feels like a + Dev Update and a - Player Update.
12 trys to get 3 Uncommen items my Personal Record.
My other negativ Record is 50 Requisition Drops with only Grey Rewards...
I am cursed i think😅
Yeah I don’t think this system helps us!
It's a sad situation how it works nowdays. I am lucky enough to have most elite nodes unlocked so haven't noticed too much bad luck yet.
Yeah that’s so important for us all to be pushing towards!
"the community are unhappy" when are they not?
Well, I can’t argue with that haha
So a chance for common item is 75% both on regular and early Indomitus and the only difference is the cost of a raid? Am I right?
So why you have +2,7% difference for early Indomitus but -4,3% for the regular? Maybe because 100 raids is too small amount to base any conclusions on it.
I have different results because when I raided different items from those campaigns, I got different results.
@@DBPreacherTacticus but what's the difference? 75% chance for one item is the same sa 75% chance for another item.
statisticaly speaking... the bigger the sample the more accurate the results... if u had done i.e. 1000 pulls from each node then the "result" numbers would be closer to the percentages... if u had done less pulls i.e. 10 from each node then we would expect to see statistic anomalies ... we could pull 10 or 9 lege in a row for example... i assume that game devs have the ability to test the mechanism with larger samples and decide if its accurate or no... sorry for any typo... english is not my native language...
Yeah I agree, I’m a huge statistics person, however, they will only get closer to the numbers if the maths is correct
before this system you got on average three shards per day out of 10 raids for getting characters. now i feel they lowered at an average of 2
Yeah that’s a fair assumption
What this means is that newer players will be even more screwed in a game that doesn't allow new players to catch up. With character releases nearly every two weeks, the requisition pool is garbage, especially with MoW being part of it too and cluttering it up. But new players have nearly no chance of pulling legendaries, are farming in the regular nodes until they unlock elites and with lower farm rates, they are even slower catching up.
If I were to join tacticus now instead of nearly 1.5 years ago, I think I wouldn't even bother.
Yeah, I really do wonder why they don’t open fresh servers for players so that newer players have a level playing field
It's been almost 5 weeks of this and they have not really addressed it. Shameful behavior both in how this was implemented (no one was really asking for this) and the complete lack of empathy or action to correct this.
I use Tacticus Planner and only hit elites unless there isn't an elite. Common drops are ridiculously bad from elites. I routinely get 3-4 drops per 30 energy. Uncommons are bad but not as bad. Rares feel ok because you always get something. Epic I don't have a good feel for. Legendary though, way more than the old system IMO. I still get shutout but it is rare and 2 for 30 energy is more common than 0 for 30.
I think we will see in the patch notes if it has been addressed or not, they are generally a bit quiet on topics like this even though they are working hard behind the scenes
I just want more energy 😂 Wish they would put in more options to get refills
They do love keeping us slowly levelling!
I dont know how broken that system can be, sometime I will get 10 Common on the same stage, sometime around 3 or 4. Im currently farming like a mad Hound Ahriman, and for 90 energy I usualy get on average 8 or 9 Ahri Shard...
I’m curious to see if there are tweaks to the system
Short answer: yes
Long answer: since it's a probability, then it means that if we built a graph on the number of successes for all the players, we would see extremes on the sides, so there will be small amount of players getting all the upgrades and some amount of players who will get only one upgrade from 10 runs. This breaks game economy, as there will be "marked by system" players who are just too lucky and progressing too quickly and, more importantly, there will be number of players, who will drop the game after few days of not getting upgrades at all. Simple fact of this "lower bracket" existing turns this game into casino
That’s basically it. I wish I had access to all the data to understand what they are doing. It doesn’t feel very well tested currently
This. It doesn't help that the probability is set for the large enough number of iterations. Since individual players will not be doing enough "pulls", some of them will get very, very bad results. Jar system was not perfect, but it was reliable and fair.
The biggest issue is the lack of campaign so you just can’t upgrade many characters like the blood angels since they have only few battles… Also the mercy system is broken.
I very much doubt the % for the drops are true, it’s probably 10 to 20% less than what they show.
I did many tests and it’s just not right.
Yep seems to be a problem
Oh man, YOU DEFINITELY LOSE PROGRES BETWEEN SESSIONS!! That's what is most broken on this No Mercy system! I had so many times 87 + 17 % after 5 failed attempt on common and depleted energy and when I came back, puff everything lost!!
That is strange because it wasn’t my experience (as you saw with Kut, that was on consecutive days) I wonder if something else is going on there
i went 2/18 on legendary components today from elite campaigns, and 3/18 yesterday so i would disagree with elite farming being broken
It’s so swingy, that’s not helped!
How can you safely download a PC version of the game?
This is using bluestacks
Google Play Beta on PC seems to work well too.
It's horrible.
1 leg item in 4 days from 2 elite runs a day of 30 energy each.
That is not ok in my book. There has to be a change in this next patch
These items take forever to grind as an earlier player
There is something not quite right that’s for sure
Drops have gotten so much worse. Sure, one day a week you might get 6 rares from a ten raid, but i noticed that i get far less common upgrades from raiding now. As for reqs, nothing has changed. I got 5 shards so many times , why is 5 or 10 shards an option for something so hard to acquire? Snowprint are getting the GW complex
I’m looking forwards to the next patch and hoping there is improvements here
I seriously started playing last night, did i come at a bad time?
Definitely not, this game is so damn wonderful. Check out my beginner guides video playlist, there is some great tips in there!
@@DBPreacherTacticus i wouldnt have believed you if you said yes. lol i cant put it down
I've had better luck with legendary and epic drops with the new system. Rare, no change (100% for elite missions). Common and uncommon, far worse luck.
That definitely matches my findings here
It’s def not new player friendly. Keeping people stuck in the early game is no bueno.
Yeah, they have made changes in the latest patch so we will take a look at this again soon
I got 2/10 for two days straight lol
Ouch!
Farming Calgar in normal campaign, got 7/10 shards 2 days in a row. This was not possible with the jar system (got 6/10 one time, following getting a 0/10 on the previous day). I think the new system just needs a tweak to the numbers that would take the number of raids possible for the day into account. If the drop rate is 75% in a normal campaign and you got zero on your first 3 raids, the mercy system should make it so the next 7 have a 100% drop rate.
Yeah I look long term rather than short term with the drops. Overall, I really work the % and right now we are worse overall with this system