Didier Sornette: How we can predict the next financial crisis
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- Опубликовано: 16 июн 2013
- The 2007-2008 financial crisis, you might think, was an unpredictable one-time crash. But Didier Sornette and his Financial Crisis Observatory have plotted a set of early warning signs for unstable, growing systems, tracking the moment when any bubble is about to pop. (And he's seeing it happen again, right now.)
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It's ridiculous how many ignorant people come here not to dialogue with knowledge but to nitpick a respectable academic of his accent, which is not even that strong.
Trang Vương
Usually people with an accent understand at least two languages.
His French accent is thick as fucc tbh tho
What has accent got to do here?
Lol… Sornette is one of my professors at ETH Zurich. Everyone here loves his accent.
I've been familiar with Prof Sornette's work for many years. He is one of few geniuses working in academia today. What a pleasure it was hearing him speak.
speak the truth even if your voice shakes! this guy delivers an EXTREMELY important message here.
"double, double, toil and trouble, fire burn and cauldron bubble..."
That's what I imagine Ben Bernanke et al to be saying during closed door Federal Reserve meetings.
What an amazing person he is. He is very knowledgeable in his field and on other fields as well. He is very fluent even though english isn't his native language. He is smart, confident and athletic. Seeing him makes me believe there are many great people in this world.
Thanks.. explains a LOT...
Well done... peace
Awesome talk! Reminds me of Hari Seldons Psychhystorie. :)
would love to see NNT's reply to this.
There was in fact a debate on Taleb'MOOCs channel
While I agree almost anyone can spot bubbles. Knowing when they are going to pop is very important.
I know someone who saw a major bubble in our economy, knowing when it popped Gold prices would shoot up he heavily invested in gold. After many years he finally sold the gold for a loss. About two years later bubble popped gold went through the roof.
Knowing the pace of the bubble, knowing exactly how unstable it is. Is very important.
Each person interacts with nature, and risks encountering the dragons of nature at any time.
you can predict the next financial crisis by asking the US federal reserve when are they planning to have one.
Very thought-provoking.....would love to see what he suggests for the emergent increase of general interest rates in the world's largest mrkets.
Why is it on planet with millions of RUclips users this lecture has only been watched 140K times ??
If you are having a hard time with his accent there is an option to turn on closed captioning at the bottom of the video.
Le diapo de la présentation est-il disponible quelque part ou au moins les sources ? merci bien
Yes.
So relevant right now
Wonder if he could apply his systeme on the global warming... id love the see the forecasting on that.
Interesting point.
but wouldnt we pop the bubble by detecting and measuring it? if someone had did this in 2005-2006 and announced that real estate market is over valued and had proven this then the crisis would have begun 1-2 earlier that it did.
Planet Money has some great episodes on bubbles and economic forecasting.
thx
at time 9:29 no index (readable) of left side of graph....what...trillions of USD? also I came here to see a circuit diagram of the hardware he uses.....where is that?
any prediction about bitcoin bubble?
The factors that determine a crash are 2 things. Supply & demand.
2008 mortgage brokers giving record number of "NINJA" loans.
Next......
Interest only loans... reaching over 51% of all mortgages will be the tipping point. At this rate it will be 2020! People buying houses they cannot afford.....SIMPLE. impressing other people will cost you dearly!
The system has grown so much and become so complex, it became organic.
Ask Rockefeller family, they are planing those ahead
exactly. best comment on here
The dragon king in Chinese myth is nature. Not just nature as in, the woods, or animals. It is the order and the power and the chaos of the natural forces for the Universe. It is the impersonal Einsteinian god of Physics. It is the power of unknown forces. It is highly unpredictable, very patient, incredibly powerful and in the long run, indomitable. You may be able to surprise the dragon king once or twice, but he adapts. It is very hard to beat him more than once.
Before he started talking I though "Identify bubbles... bubbles always burst"
I'd distill this talk down to extolling the virtues of the Scientific Method as applied to economics & other studies. Mathematics is at its core; research & data acquisition is its fuel. The main benefit here is predictability that allows us, as individuals & societies, to plan for success. Economic theory has certainly missed the mark for most of us because of its ideological basis that obviously needs a make-over to bring it more into the realm of science.
Let him know that he can do great things
The English closed captioning is extremely bad... almost comical. TED - can't you fix that?
I understood him.
now. lets go celebrate
we can't
like that what happened to apple stocks 40% growth
and then crash
Just google FED and austrian economics and you will understand how economy works today and why there are crisis
Explain where the losses went. Was it cash or simply paper? Why does it trickle down? Is the bettor using money that if lost, effects others? Should that be legal then...as it wouldn't be his money?
Any day
Doesn't anyone notice the timeframe(2030-2060) for the massive change for humanity. The year he gives is 2045, which is the same year for Ray Kurzweil's singularity. There are no coincidences.
I'm having one right now. : (
I think the great professor describes characteristics in the market that are manifesting themselves in real-time in 2021. I wonder what 2022 will look like if there is a crash and pension funds cannot make the total monthly payouts to pensioners? Derivatives are so massive that a margin call on a full-scale market collapse would bring down the entire global system. I think this is the impetus of why Russia and China have continued increasing their physical gold and silver holdings. Cryptocurrency is an interesting thought experiment but can be hacked by sovereign nations or priced fixed by central banks. Cryptocurrency currency can be manipulated to strip many of their wealth when bad intentions are the primary goal of bad actors. Excellent short talk by a fascinating professor.
I'd say there's only another 18 months until a good ol' downturn...
Guess what. The dot-com and real estate bubble was both financial crisis forseen by people like Gerald Celente and Peter P. Schift. We already knowed what the next financial crisis will be because we have blown up a bailout bubble to save the other bubbles and never solved the problem in the first place.
We only fed alcohol to a alcoholic, and never tried make him quit his addiction.
I hope not only me has came to quite different conclusion: he put it very simply, mb even too much
Know exactly what ya mean.
I just watched one of these with a boy named sam with a severe disease and i just want to make a shout out to him and if he reds
Its being out for lik 30 min so wat do u expect
it always seemed to me like a lot of people saw the crisis coming and did nothing about it... and the daft governments of europe continued to spend a lot when it was very obvious that economic activity was going way down
Trying to analyze the 07 08 crisis by looking at stocks is incoherent. It was in extremely complicated derivatives and the perverse incentives surrounding the speculative frenzy in those illiquid markets.
There was nothing surprising about the crash of 2008. When you see kids straight out of high school qualifying for mortgages on homes upwards of 250k with no real assets, something is dreadfully wrong, no guesswork involved.
You can't predict the stock market because it's not based on real life resources/services anymore. 95% or more is derivative trading which as far as I understand, it is trading on something which has it's value derived from the value of something else. Clearly this introduces massive amounts of speculation and leads to huge profit gains/losses with little physical changes. Also banks can use fractional reserve banking to make multi-billion $ bets at near 0% interest. Giant Ponzy Scheme.
and did it predict the current crisis?
I didn't know Jason Bateman was French.
It has been a year since this guy bragged about his predictions. He said the Nasdaq was in a bubble in May of 2013. It was around 3530 at that point. It is currently at 4300.
mdueri Now Nasdaq 4931. Didier Sornete is a God!
Did you?
There was responsibility. The governement eliminated regulations, and the banking industry took advantage and proceeded to gouge and ruin individuals. There were indicators for those who were willing to look.
Also, they are working to do it again!
no mention of leading economic indicators like the ISM index.
what he said meant that nobody took any responsibility, not that nobody was responsible for it.
You got me with your fucking fly
Thanks for replying.
Iran and Syria are a few of the remaining countries outside of the grip of the banks.
It's why Libya, with previously the worlds second highest standard of living, was taken out.
The human race is being farmed en masse under the guise of democracy and commercialism, stirred with religion.
The 1st step towards freeing ourselves is to alert people to what is really happening.
Luckily, the people ARE the power and our awareness and non-compliance is all that is needed.
If you find him hard to understand, it's probably because you don't get to hear other people's accents too often, making this more of an issue about you. He's obviously French and has a French accent, but he's not CHOOSING to speak like that- as with everything, learning to master a language takes practice.
How to predict it: listen to Ron Paul
How to prevent it: elect Ron Paul
Did he say that the global population crash will occur within 2030 - 2060??
promises more than he delivers
Bubbles are hard to predict, very hard actually. If you believe you can see a bubble before the market, just go short a bunch of stocks whenever you see one and make millions.
If bubbles were easy to see they would not exist.
I enjoy watching TED-Talks a lot. However, it shows also how much the way you speak counts, not only (if not more than) what you have to say. I'm not an economist so I cannot judge his ideas, but I find it hard to listen to. You can see how hard it is for him to make a point :(
Good extrapolation is not a stright line, but a curved one, at 3:44.
Didier Sornette is a professor from ETH Zurich, one of the best universities in Europe.
All those dislikes because the cowards/sheeple can't handle the truth xD
Click-bait title for the video could be the cause for the dislikes. The good prof is only saying HE can predict. The video is NOT a "how to" about predicting the next crash. Of course people will be pissed for wasting their time.
Anthony Bell
are you a pshyic?
seems like u think u are!
maybe u should make a vid. claiming to predict the next crash
joy of the day to you!
The papers are out there. He explains that ideas behind the papers.
The ideas are what matters. A simple way to predict movements in finance is by definition non-existent.
this is not true 1 minute of googling brings you right there: arxiv.org/abs/1108.0099
My lawyer once said that in court. He said " you can't handle the truth."
In his life
Fuck can someone just tell me when the next financial crisis is?
13:38 - Why does the graph of the Chinese bubble stop at 2009? This talk was in 2013 and data is pretty easy to get. That makes me suspicious that this is a bit of a curve-fitting exercise. Though he does say this is 'just the third or fourth act' so maybe the financial bubble indeed goes in pockets of predictability. These so-called non-linear transitions are interesting.
I still have Sornette's book on stock market crashes and power laws, it motivated me to take up finance in the first place.
Cutting a 17 min TED talk about bubbles short: Bubble Genisis = Low Interest rates. Bubble maturity/ pop = Interest Rates rise. 17 min of tedious research compacted. Thank me later.
The only way to predict the next financial crisis is to learn how to read the minds of those who pull the strings!!
It's going to be the student loan bubble. I'd give it a few years until it pops though.
But collapses are perfectly predictable. They always happen.
To predict the next financial crisis, just watch the Keiser Report on RT :)
check out zerohedge
So i take it you never had to borrow money for a house, education or to start a business ?..
Schrodingers's cat will argue otherwise.
By observing and 'predicting', you change the outcome thus ensuring unpredictability.
Central planners have been trying this for decades and all they've done is manage to incite ever increasing amplitudes of volatility. The derivative of what they're doing is eventually going to hit a parabolic infinity. That's when the cat is both dead and alive.
Predicting humans is pure fantasy, even when they're controlled.
The French should know this intimately
This guy actually advocates that "Quantitative Easing" and Austerity do not work and do not address the systemic central problem.
Heu guys, did you know the "Sornette" is a polite way of saying bullshit in french? I think it explains this video.
2015-2016; or maybe this year (2013)
This year the feelings start and it will take 3 to 4 years to work out relative to the macro (election cycles) and micro (your discrete choices)
What I have heard is that the next recession will be caused by the manufacturing industry (maybe bad 6sigma practices???)
Note: the ocean of economics will always have frothy bubbles, just make sure your boat is not over a natural gas bent, where lack of buoyancy will make you sink.
I call BS on that
@@dennykeaton9701 your a little late on making that call. This video is 10 years old. The next recession is moat probably government caused via fiscal spending policy problems.
@@tonyotag Time to go to cash?
@@dennykeaton9701 2015 -2016 was the last "recession" (but was not a recession) due to credit market cycles and lower GDP figures. This might have been caused per my first comment above anyway. As of now, building a bar-bell based portfolio is probably better at this time, it is what I have been hearing from many wealth managers on the money management media like Bloomberg, CNBC, etc.... Half in conservative cash or cash like alts with the other half in riskier assets per your age and timeline to retirement profile. This of course depends on what your wealth profile and life-goals are.
At the very least, cash or cash alternatives are better at this time. (If your wealth is not too great, certificate of deposits on retail trading platforms for fixed income is not a bad way to go if you do not mind the lockup period for the cash. Otherwise high yield savings or checking in a bank. If you have more than 250K per FDIC maximum, then maybe US treasuries but depends on political risk. Overall, diversification is the best way to hedge risk.
They do work to lend money, they don't do it because of how humanitarian they are. I know, everyone works for money, but if your job is to make people in debt, you're not nice at all.
How will economists predict the next financial crisis? I assume, in the same way as they predicted the last one. They will cluelessly wait until it happens and than they will explain that such and such lead to this and that and how it all was inevitable and had to happen the way it happened.
It's a mathematical certainty that a financial crisis will occur.
In fact it is occurring RIGHT NOW. QE anyone?
Continual printing of fiat currencies will end in the same way 600 other paper currencies have already gone. They have an average life expectancy of 23 years.
This collapse has been premeditated, foreseen, engineered, predicted for quite some time.
Their job is not to make or force people into debt. It is to give people the option to borrow money, clearly if people are of sound judgement they will only do so when they expect it to better their lives. For exampl i might go into debt to fund my education, without a bank acting as a mediator between those who wish to lend and those who wish to borrow we would be much worse off individually and as a society.
We need to do two things. Start making things the world want's and do it better then anyone else.
Secondly we need to change the days we work. We are slaves of the seven day week.
Meaning M-F 9-5 Traffic,lines,fuel,JOBS,and on and on would all be better off with mixing days off. People tend to like doing the same things at the same time only because of M-F=stress. Money would be spent more evenly,overcrowding finnished.
Capitalism and democracy are fantastic systems within a moral society. And there's the problem. Don't look to socialism or communism to solve that. Pain and suffering flourish even faster under those systems and their corrupt rulers.
What we need is to hold ourselves and our leaders to a higher moral standard; to shun the businesses that fail to behave honestly and responsibly; and to impeach or vote our corrupt politicians.
We also need to think of our neighbour as much as ourselves.
Click the 'Automatic English captions' button below this video if you're having trouble listening to his accent...ALL WILL BE CLEAR
only 5 likes wtf
??
That was just uncalled for. You could've left the man with some dignity. Rude and unnecessary.
LOL... well some-one needed to show this to the Goldman Sacs /JP Morgan cartel..
I hope it doesn't stink there to much... And dont forget to flush the water when you're done D
Most of the people unfortunately have not clue what he is talking about. It's finally all statistics. That's why he doesn't make money with it, it's just a probability. No one will ever be able to predict a complex system with certainty. Most of you folks have never ever actually worked with stocks have you. It's not especially hard to get the basic trends, it's hard to know EXACTLY when to buy/ sell and probabilities are uncertainties and therefore only of little help in this case.
WE NEED A SUBTITLE!
not convinced he was telling the whole truth
So the sovietharvard MBAs will try new ways to create a new great moderation, is this really learning from historiy or is it gonna give birth the mother of black swans?
It will happen within the next 500 million years...
Don't insult a person's whole intelligence on one statement they made perhaps?
lol Bitcoin bubble 2013.