ARK's Tesla Valuation | The Brainstorm EP 51
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- Опубликовано: 15 июл 2024
- Curious to hear our take on Tesla? This week, Autonomous Technology and Robotics Director of Research Sam Korus and Associate Portfolio Manager Nick Grous are joined by ARK Director of Investment Analysis & Institutional Strategies Tasha Keeney and ARK Research Associate Daniel Maguire to discuss ARK's latest Tesla valuation model.
If you know ARK, then you probably know about our long-term research projections, like estimating where we will be 5-10 years from now! But just because we are long-term investors, doesn’t mean we don’t have strong views and opinions on breaking news. In fact, we discuss and debate this every day. So now we’re sharing some of these internal discussions with you in our new video series, “The Brainstorm”, a co-production from ARK and Public.com. Tune in every week as we react to the latest in innovation. Here and there we’ll be joined by special guests, but ultimately this is our chance to join the conversation and share ARK’s quick takes on what’s going on in tech today.
Key Points From This Episode:
00:00:00 Intro
00:00:07 ARK Invest Discusses Updates To It’s $TSLA Valuation Model
00:03:49 ARK Forecast: 90% Of Enterprise Value & Earnings Will Be Robotaxi Biz In 2029
00:07:56 Unpacking The Unit Economics Of The Robotaxi Business
00:10:50 ARK Invest Discusses Updates To It’s $TSLA Valuation Model
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Disclosure: arkinv.st/39rzF94 
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I have had my Tesla going on 5 years I volunteered to let Tesla to observe my driving all of that time. The progress of FSD has been amazing.
They do it all the time anyway.. 😊
Up until last year I was all in with Tesla stock. I did move enough into MSTR so I could make a HUGE premium on covered calls to make up the drop, in Tesla, since 2020. I will be buying it back. I still believe in the Tesla mission and their awesome products. They really are the most forward thinking company on the planet!
Same here. Mstr had been incredible
I actually think tesla will use optimus robots to charge robotaxi
I actually think tesla will use optimus robots to build more optimus robots
A fool and his money will surely be separated.
Tesla purchased a company that specialized in wireless inductive charging company last year.
Hows that? You dont need a robot to drive another robot (robotaxi essentially being a robot wheels).
@@carensimon4236 you can’t argue with Elon Incels, it’s just crazy. Ark has also lost a shot ton of money and pay no attention to Tesla competitors, there’s companies that literally have robotaxi’s on the road right now.
Okay guys, a few comments. Much of America doesn't spend $30K on a car. Get out of NY (or where ever) and smell the roses. As we have all heard for years is: 80% of the market buys vehicles which are $25K or less. So acceptance won't occur until the $25K EV is widely available AND the charging infrastructure is built out in middle America for the masses. Most of us don't own homes with solar panels. Before you get upset, I am a long-term Tesla investor and a huge advocate. I fight the good fight, daily.
Secondly, why would I not buy FSD and make my vehicle available 100% of the time (less time for daily maintenance). The money generated should be more than what I pay for a ride for the time I need a ride. My life is not configured so rigorously that I have known time-frames, in advance, when I need my car.
Thanks for all the great work!! It is most appreciated.
Get with the program it's called Model 2 .. or whatever..$25k less
Average selling price of new vehichles in usa is already above $45,000 in 2024. Good luck finding any new car in usa under $30,000.
@@yehimstone5492 look at a new Camry or buy used. It didn't take long to find it. Exactly one query.
Be careful not to mix new car prices with used car prices. The average purchase price of a new car in the U.S. in January 2024 was about $47k; it was only _used_ cars that averaged $27k. The question is, to reach that lower end of the market, will we get there first by depreciation or by cheaper new models, or will robo-taxis come on fast enough to make it a moot point?
I’m in… I have a Model Y and will make mine accessible to others under the right payment model
It's always funny to watch ARK talking about Tesla valuation 😁
Why?
@@TheOukeren they are good at telling jokes
Agreed FSD has really improved but I feel ARK is a bit over their skies on the price target. I’ll be pleasantly surprised if they’re right.
They were right. Once.
@@markdc1145They were also wrong many times
Tesla may begin to offer Robotaxi services through private fleet operators like Revel that already have vehicle maintenance and charging infrastructure in use. These private fleet operators could also possibly assume some of the liability and insurance costs for the service.
Same car culture here in Australia and the other thing is people don’t trust autonomous driving, we still don’t have FSD. Will take a large shift in mindset and building trust.
I think a fast charging mobile service would be handy.
How often do you drive over 250 miles a day?
Good mix of humour and blue sky thinking. Well done Team Ark👍
A point not being talked about is the robotaxi vehicle appeal to women and parents. As a single mother fighting cancer and living in NYC, I struggled with getting my then 12-year old daughter around to her activities. I was loathe to put her alone in a ride share (where allowed) due to her vulnerability. Not only was it physically exhausting to get her around but my immune system was shot and public transportation germs could literally have killed me. Considering the female safety issue re: riding alone with a male versus a robotaxi, can be an unspoken market opportunity. I would pay a premium to remove that safety risk for my teenage daughter and even myself.
these videos always end so abruptly I get whiplash 😂
He’s right that in the US the relationship with one’s vehicle is at a different level but as economic poverty grows people will become less attached and transport will and already is becoming utility.
Fees, taxes, insurance and the cost to buy or lease a vehicle is already too high for approximately 12% to 15% of US occupants of driving age.
Insurance: Current Ins. Co's often use odometer readings to validate usage and what is the split between FSD "uber" driving and personal use driving. I've had to show my odometer reading the last couple years to keep insurance rates at a lower level.
Renting out your Tesla will need to net at least $0.50/mile for the owner to break even. That is taking into account recharging, maintenance, depreciation and taxes (yes Uncle Sam will want a percentage of your car income).
So it’s not a slam dunk!
Tasha, from where can I download your calc. model?
from Arks website
In Cancun, taxi drivers also have the Uber app. They answer both types of calls.
So in the Robotaxi situation, a driver could make money both driving his own car, plus managing his Robotaxi. If the Robo needs charging, he's already out there to handle it.
Thx
So, if autonomous dirving represent 90% of valuation.... if that doesn't work in 2-3 years, is tesla only worth $40 (PE = 10)?
good question...I would like an analysis of the stripped down version of Tesla so I can weigh my risks better. I guess I gotta learn how to calculate it myself.
I think the bigger picture was missed. Assuming there is big money in robotaxis as is suggested, very quickly what is likely to happen, is that big business will start buying up robo capable cars in far greater number than the folks putting their personal cars into the robo network. That will in turn affect the balance of supply/demand, and will drive the cost of new vehicles up significantly, in the same way we have seen housing prices shoot through the roof, since Wallstreet investors entered the market-the cost of housing overall is now jacked-up an near unaffordable for first time buyers. Likewise soon the average joe/jane wont even be able to afford any car, and at best have no choice other than to use robo taxis within their budget. But no question Tesla benefits from all this.
Where I live inn the west, most households own two vehicles. So if you can get to work for $1 per mile you can leave your commuter car home Or only own one car the family car or “rent” your car out to Tesla as a Tesla Cab instead of cutting in the employers parking lot. Also the cost of parking at the air port is insane, a lot more than $1 per mile to get to the airport.
If you tow something with a Tesla, assuming you have to disconnect the trailer each time you charge ?? To get close enough.
Most Superchargers now have drive through chargers
I love everybody's enthusiasm and I really enjoy the technology introduced by Tesla. But I have a problem with the idea that everybody's going to love to put strangers in their cars. Imagine the scenario where you go on vacation for a week and you let your car make money for you and you come back to a trashed vehicle. I don't think I would be comfortable having strangers in my car.
Insurance.
I thought the same and then I remembered two things:
1. In Europe, we already have car sharing programs where private people can put their car to rent by other people. It’s a hassle, but for people that are financially tight, it can be worth it
2. The camera in the Tesla will indeed reduce the risk of it happening.
And as said by the other comments, insurance will also help alleviate the pain
Optimus will eventually replace factory workers at gigafactories saving millions in labor costs.
Great to hear from a clever Irish man 🇮🇪
If I assign my car as a RoboTaxi and it becomes disabled during the rental who is responsible for the passenger, the repairs needed etc? Not just financially but for any fines etc?
TSLA UP!
The Tesla robotaxi fleet will initially be majority private-owned at first, fleet owned in the mid-term, and Tesla owned in the long term. With Optimus, there will be no reason for Tesla to transfer the profits of fleet ownership to private equity-owned fleets, when Tesla still covers the insurance. For the robotaxi models, those will end up going straight into the Tesla fleet, to monetize daily for years.
Ms. Keeney, if the cars become robo taxis 45% of the time, will they ace out us regular owners when we need to charge?
Possible that the charging will be wireless!
Regarding the question of how does a driverless car charge itself...no one brought up the expected mileage of such vehicles in a day. How many miles does a taxi cab driver do per day on average, and does that equal the amount of mileage a Tesla can do on a full charge? If the average miles driven in the US for personal vehicles is 40 miles...then perhaps a taxi is 200 miles at the most and so a fully charged car doesn't need to worry about charging as a huge problem. It will be a small percentage of cybercabs that run in to this issue, and a Service Center style solution could fill that gap...or a roaming and staffed Tesla Service vehicle to charge a car. But again this seems so unlikely because this is going to take off in cities first...for many years, surely not in rural areas where charging stations and service centres may be less abundant.
I appreciate the contrarian/skepital takes on the panel
Hi Sam!
still driving my 1983 Ford Capri here in U.K. and will keep it but have a CyberTruck on order for when they eventually arrive here.
Bright young minds!
Is there another channel where Ark discusses other companies in their funds? Like Quantum-SI (QSI) and MarkForged? I'd like to hear updated information on their speculation/analysis.
@@markindy862 QSI's Tech "digests" viruses and dissects proteins. What are the practical use cases outside of the obvious?
How about the regulator side of things? Ultimately they decide Tesla’s future ?
New house Tasha? heheheh. Nice!
Auto taxis should have slow acceleration n top max speed of 80 mph
It’s not clear whether Tesla will provide us access to the in-cabin camera. We’d need this in pursuing reimbursement for a trashed car.
People are still using threads?
Tesla even with even FSD 12.3.3.6 is absolutely fabulous. I have implicit trust in this version but still follow Tesla standards of observation.
I'm so cool that I don't just have Optimus, I have Optimi! 🤣
This feels like a teenage boy fever dream. It is way more likely that cheaper EVs eat the market and Uber just drops pricing.
I like nick, id hang out with him at parties
No doubts Robotaxi wiil succeed on the technology front. What about societal acceptance, esp. due to dispacement of ride sharing jobs?, where many are already underwaged and overworked to churnout a lackluster wages🤔
What about the human side of things? Majority of people don't want to share their car as they see it as a private space. I see this more for fleet owners or Uber drivers, private citizens will have less than 30% uptake renting out their car. Personally I would buy two cars and have one robo taxi 100% of time.
A lot of talk on robotaxis future value what about talk about the future design of cities based on robotaxis which support robotaxis adoptions
If (when) CyberCabs start rolling, and if Tesla owners can choose, or better yet define their own "client pools, then a blend of CyberCabs (CCs) and privately owned units is most likely.
Human nature being what it is, a concerned owner could, for example, limit their client pool to the Church Ladies' Auxiliary or the Soccer Moms Carpool Club. CCs would be for people who aren't in a client pool. A CyberTruck could be assigned to neighbourhood homeowners for their hauling needs and friends & family members. *Family* pay? TANSTAAFL, bitches!
(And UBER / LYFT for the luddites, natch...)
Why didn’t you guys talk about battery swap that is taking over? ooooo cause Tesla failed at it but NiO mastered it! NiO let’s go!
Maybe Optimus as an attendant at the super charging stations at first until wireless charging get better.
Basic assumptions: It's what? 35% of the adult population does not own a vehicle? Only what? 2% of the vehicle owners buy a new car in any given year?
I wouldn't want anyone driving in my car so happy for it to sit unused 95% of the time. Similarly, I dont want people staying in my house (Airbnb) Still there will be many that go with this and will need to actually with AI coming for everyone's jobs.
Still so much 'Tesla is a car company' thinking, which is depressing. I suggest MUCH more emphasis upon the Tesla Megapack business and VASTLY getting the customers to PAY UP when their equipment is installed. The proof that 'it works' has been proven over and over again and again and there should be zero tolerance for 'tests' or extended evaluations, which only delay payment and wind up being a useless, expensive Tesla subsidy of the client. Let's get this revenue booked ASAP and not dragged out over years.
Bang Robotaxi
Zoox?
Sorry, but Robotaxi without battery swap makes no sense. It’s almost comical how hard you guys try to avoid saying the “SWAP” word. Hiring someone to plug in the cars? In 21st century? You were literally one step away from proposing to reinstate child labour.
I mean I know Tesla could be a bit salty because Nio made battery swapping work, but not even mentioning battery swapping as a viable alternative kind of makes me question your analyst skills: you either intentionally avoid taking about it which makes me question your professional integrity, either you don’t know about battery swapping solutions, which makes me question your professional abilities.
Tesla should give all buyers of their cars free supercharging for life just for Tesla owners make it special. It’s peanuts anyway.
maybe these "experts" should analyze ARKK's valuation instead. Stock market at an all time high and the ARKK fund is down 8% year to date. Something doesn't seem right here. Tesla, the largest holding of the fund, up 50% in few days, HOOD and COIN up huge for the past year, and this fund is down 8%? I really think that something nefarious is happening here
tsla 330 eoy
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 NIO Swap already autonomously.
Daniel needs a better light in his toilet cubicle.😉
So many assumptions without any data. Tasha has been wrong for years now. 90% valuation of Tesla from FSD also ignores optimus and energy. She is doubling down now with questionable models.
Y no NVDA?? 🤔🤔
It's overvalued. Going to $50.
TSLA - how much is failure worth?
I own a Tesla Model Y and TSLA - so I'm 100% qualified to guess what TSLA is worth.
elon wants $56 billion dollars for creating a mess of a company.
The BOD could have hired ALL 500 CEOs of the S&P 500
and paid each $112 million for that money
So let's face that elon and the entire BOD don't have my interests at heart.
Here are the current failures of elon in no particular order:
1) BEVs (100% Battery powered vehicles) are dead worldwide. 4 things killed them:
a) Range anxiety - 1,000 miles is needed, and 300 is the going average
b) Charging anxiety - elon got piggish and opened the Superchargers to anyone - that was the #1 thing going for Tesla
c) Depreciation anxiety - elon holds firesales all the time and the same Model Y I bought 2 years ago can be bought today for $25,000 less - in the meantime the price of the battery has gotten $1.700 cheaper, so elon knows the BEV is dead
d) Complex operation - owning a BEV is 2X more complicated than owing an ICE car
2) The Cybertruck is a 100% total failure - 8,000 have been made and 4 recalls so far. I had reservation number 1,3xx,xxx and last week, Tesla notified me I was next in line to buy the $120,000 truck. That means 1.3 million ticket holders passed up buying the Mad Max truck
3) FSD (Full Self Driving) is a 100% flop - it was NEVER designed for ANY human to use in ANY Tesla. elon needed billions of dollars and billions of human-driven miles to train FSD for the RoboTaxi/Cybertruck. There is NO way that cops and the courts are going to allow me to sleep behind the wheel with FSD and my neighbor in his Ford can't
4) The RoboTaxi needs FSD to be at SAE Level-5 self-driving level - that's an easy 10+ years away.
5) The 18-wheeler Tesla Semi is a 100% failure - nobody is going to spend the money and time needed for permits and electrical substations built for a fleet of these things. 2 weeks ago, Ryder, the largest leasing company of Class 8 trucks, released their analysis of the Tesla Semi, and it costs 2X as much as a fleet of diesel trucks and it won't buy any to lease.
All in all, TSLA is a zombie - the walking dead with rotting flesh stinking up the market.
ARK is just pumping to stock to dump it.
assuming all of the above is true at the moment, we still have a chance for things to turn around. You still have FSD software which ppl are willing to buy even if they can't fall asleep behind the wheel, Elon can stop having fire sales when interest rates go back down, batteries can get better, the cyber truck can be "improved" both in price and in features, etc etc. Plus you didn't mention other revenues like energy business and robots. Do you think Tesla will fail there as well?
@@trina2100 Humanoid robots like the Tesla Terminator will never coexist in human society.
So that is a failure already.
Why?
Because ALL human societies hold the individual responsible for their actions.
How do you hold a 250-pound steel robot with self-learning capability responsible
if it finds a way to be 5% more efficient but accidentally kills a human once in a while?
You can't, and ethics doom ALL humanoid robots to work on the moon, Mars, or the inside of a septic tank. No way will steel robots intermingle in any human group.
and the idea of the elon Terminator taking jobs from voting tax-paying citizens to become wards of the welfare state for the rest of their lives is insane - robots don't vote nor pay taxes.
Apple has the right idea - their robot is going to be small and cute, and another iPhone
where thousands of software and hardware developers add utility to the bot.
Rumor has it that the Apple bot is why Apple dumped the car idea - 1000X more profit.
This does not make any sense. Robotaxis will never displace personal ownership of cars unless this industry and the government make car ownership so expensive via some dystopian means. Barring complete ban on personal ownership of cars, this will be just another taxi service not much different than Uber/Lyft; the major difference will be a cool effect being driven an autonomous vehicle and, likely, lower cost. These analysts live in their own dystopian bubble which is, frankly, very evident from ARK funds performance.
All this "best" science in the business and ARK is still down from your self defined invest horizon of 5 years. You should be ashamed of yourself.
If aliens come . Mars will be very valuable. Tesla stock 👎
TESLA SOON WILL BE A $1000 A SHARE
Crap fund
Do you base your strong assertion on your ability to code, historical lack of performance or some other reason?
Guys, Elon has been asking you to post these videos on X. Why not do it?
Why don't you do it
I dont take investment advice from 30 year olds - sorry