Peter Zeihan: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization
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- Опубликовано: 22 авг 2024
- Was 2019 the last great year for the world economy? For generations, everything has been getting faster, better and cheaper. Complex, innovative industries were created to satisfy consumers, but are we at the brink of not being able to sustain ongoing demand?
Geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan asserts it is only a matter of time before major changes will start to unfold that will affect how we manufacture goods, grow food and produce energy. Additionally, the list of countries able to sustain this model is much smaller than you might think.
Zeihan issues an urgent call to avoid what he sees as a catastrophic ending and maps out what the “next” world will look like.
Notes
This program is supported by the Ken & Jaclyn Broad Family Fund.
Photo by Barton Wilder.
December 2, 2022
Speakers
Peter Zeihan
Author, The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization; Twitter @PeterZeihan
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I like how Peter puts all these pieces together. I've heard about many of these issues repeatedly since the early 2000s, but they way he weaves them together and his almost "story teller" type analysis and outlook is quite captivating and interesting. Enjoy his lectures immensely.
If what Peter is saying is true about the end of the cold war why was NATO always intent on advancing closer and closer to Russia? Why was the number one threat to NATO Russia? Why was Russia, who according to Peter was no longer a threat, not allowed entry into NATO? That one act in itself proves Peter is wrong. And because of that all other theories must be questionable at the very least.
He does a really good job of convincing people that certain things are linked because he doesnt tell the whole story.
The world is starving for non-political and non-narrative creating content and information. Thank you!
Interesting way of looking at things
Everything is political.
@Aristocratic Rebel except politics, which is manipulation and force
Non political politics, non narrative narratives, and non content content.
Don't quit your day job Einstein.
Non - narrative? Russia and China are about to collapse and the USA is fantastic? Sounds like a narrative to me..
Why do organizations insist on having 7 introductions before getting to the point
GHW Bush wasn't voted out of for wanting a conversation on the "New World Order", it was "Read my lips , No new taxes" and then going back on his word and Ross Perot as a third party candidate.
I think Peter could have made the point differently, Bush's message was not well received, though the neocon agenda continued
Bush promoted disaggregation of Europe - the current proxy war in Ukraine is directed in part at economic weakening of Europe.
@@casteretpollux hi Cass..thanks.. did not know that..I will check it out!
Bill Clinton was backed heavily by the Democratic party and he had a crazy charisma that I believe is what got him elected. The man lied under oath during questioning about his affair with M.L. and he talked his way out of it and then was voted in for a second term. It was absolutely unbelievable. Hillary Clinton and Obama ruined the Democratic party and now Biden is doing the same.
It was 2008.
Peter Ziehan is the genius who explains life in the 21st centruy to all of us!
He's a pop culture analyst.
@@johnsmith1474 That's good, because we're not lookin' for arcane culture analysis.
you spelled "schiff" wrong
Zeihan tells the story that America will always come out on top. It's a fantasy
I like the analysis, but he does not take into account the recent innovation in Hot Fusion power that has been disclosed by the mainstream media. Cold fusion is also a reality as well which the media does not disclose, but I know for a fact that the US navy has an actual patent for a cold fusion reactor. This will make dependency on fossil fuels unnecessary. Fusion power alone has huge beneficial implications for the future.
I never get tired of hearing Peter’s insights. Very solid analysis.
You like Peter's insight, I've only listened to a few minutes and it is nonsense. His criticism of Obama, and Obama thinking he knows best... is in accurate analyses.
@@sebastianwrites Well, there are certainly things I take issue with like Russia needing to control the gateways. Is that really important in an age of nukes? I’m not sure.
Relieved you feel that way!!!
high school drop outs love this guy
Peter is like a stopped clock being read by captain obvious
Dude don’t have to interrupt because Peter is a perfect interview. He will keep topics very brief.
Peter needs to go on lex Friedman or Joe Rogan podcast. More people need to hear this stuff.
Like what? He's talks about exploding gas prices in EU for example. Ok. But since this interview they have fallen to pre war levels. So basically he was wrong. We could in fact replace Russian gas with LNG and it's not 6x pricier...
Hes an entertaining man and he brings a unique perspective, but one shouldn't be too naive. He sells books and speeches. And he does that well. That the EU, a millenia old civilization, or China a multiple millenia old civilization, just collapse into nothingness is unlikely to happen.
He was just on Joe Rogan this week!
@@ravenconnolly5368 i know, I saw! I was stoked!
Great information… Peter Ziehan
is like an macro encyclopedia. Really interesting discussion.
Stop feeding the ego!
Bravo, Peter Z! The future looks like a positive place. Justice is coming for a lot of people.
No kidding
Mr Zeihan explains the global economy very well.
Perhaps-but he can't see any other paradigm outside of capitalism or ones already tried. I mean, if the system failed globally its going to fail locally.
Why does Google Cloud have an "editorial director"?
I thought cloud services were supposed to be a platform, not a publisher.
Interesting theory . . . . 😂
One of Peters better interview presentations
He was great on joe Rogan
Thank you guys. This was brilliant. We need more of this.
Seconded. Excellent discussion.
More of what ? Fantasies ? Like men get pregnant? Lol ? These guys are so full of BS
@@brentmcgee1534 I wonder what Biden has done that he is praisig him for? I cant think of anything
Interview starts at 4:00
☝️ the hero we don't deserve
Thanks. What an insight
This guy is the perfect example of someone who LOVES listening to himself talk.
Love the Middles Ages , Renaissance and Enlightenment connections. He is right.
“We’re not going to suffer as much as the others” Never mind the drug addiction epidemic, homelessness ( from drug addiction and mental illness), broken families, “culture war”, poor education, lack of young people going into trades and vocations instead of getting college degrees with no good career path…….
Still better than others. Sad but true.
We have unlimited food and oil. They can manage 😊
@@cooldudecs We have first world problems, but some politicians are trying to kill the golden goose.
And at any one point in U.S. history, we could replace each of those listed problems and issues with something of equal societal importance and impact. But still...would likely be better than the other countries in comparison. I guess having 'some' problems is better than 'all' problems.
Yet, still doing better than anyone historically. Good but not perfect, nobody is
We need people like him more than ever
A fact on early globalisation and empire. The colourful clap board houses of St. John's Newfoundland which were in the British Empire, briefly independent, then Canada from '49 were built with coal shutes to take the stuff tipped down to basements with small fire places built for coal, not the local wood, with coal shipped from English Lancashire coal mines and Newcastle across the Atlantic. Yet they had pine and birch trees in millions on their doorsteps.
That's hilarious
Birch can be good firewood. Pine is a one way ticket to a chimney fire.
Here beginneth the lesson on how to sell fridges to eskimos and coal to Canadians who live in pine and Birch tree forests.
Coal has far more energy per kilo. The stove can be stoked in the morning and burn all day. People were struggling to stay warm and alive. I burn spruce and pine in my wood/ cookstove. It doesn’t burn long before needing to be fe. It will not burn all night. If I lived off grid, i would have a coal stove.
My parents' house in New York State has a coal chute. Coal and wood are not equal. When I was a kid, we had a wood stove. Much of rural America still has wood stoves.
every time I listen to Peter Ziehan I cannot stop listening and now Quentin Hardy is great for feeding the discussion.
What a fantastic discussion..I rolled my eyes at a hours time but found this to be a fantastic, informative ,educational discussion. Thanks guys for a great show.
Don't take too much faith into what he discussed. There's reasons to be skeptical. Also, the interviewer was not apt.
@@EBDeveloper What reasons? True,all that they say will happen may not pan out. Esp if nuclear Weapons are brought out.
@@earljohnson2113 Peter spoke about nuclear weapons in a different interview and has definitely thought about it a great deal, eve within the context of the was conflict in Ukraine. It's not an oversight.
I tend to think that nuclear weapons wont be an issue. Nothing indicates it would be. Not unless someone invades Russia. Russia wont use them offensively and nobody is threatening to invade Russia, and likely wont.
@@christopherbelanger6612 How do you know that ? You don't know what Russia will really do. Neither does Pete.
@P A I rolled my eyes at an hours time to watch the show. Duh
BASF is investing $780 million in Louisiana and $10 billion in Guangdong, China.
They better change their mind.
Why?
Me zeihan should be a Disney script writer
Outstanding program this year by The Commonwealth Club. Hard to imagine better closer than Mr. Zeihan.
Super interview with Peter Zeihan. He’s a shot of black coffee when it comes to the political spin drunkin news we get from all our media no matter what country. What a lot of commenters miss is the man has written three diff books. And he’s been off the mark a few times but the reason he’s so in demand is because his analysis of the geo political situation is on more often than off.
There aren't windy places in Europe? Dude, there is a reason the windmill is a national symbol of the Netherlands.
Such a nice discussion! We need much more of this today!
How do you see the disparity of ship building capacity in the USA Vs China? We used to be a shipbuilding nation but now we cannot even build enough ships for our own Navy and have to get them from Italy (Constellation Frigates)
Block the straits and China does
the self aggrandizing stops and the actual interview starts at 5.21
The conversations around tables this Christmas were going to be interesting in most parts of the world anyway. Peter Zeihan is talking about the end of Christmas as we currently know it!
Many thanks for hosting Mr. Zeihan. His comments are always worth listening to.
I don’t think this man understands China very well. He seems to believe the trope that China is ruled by one when the facts are that China allows much more input from its people and has many smaller leaders trying things on small scale.
If we look at China and compare it to the US we see a country with high speed trains and more housing then they need compared to crumbling infrastructure and homelessness in the US. Now I know this could be turned around in the US but I don’t see anyone actually doing anything about it while China has built for the future while the US is crumbling.
Everyone keeps telling us China is crumbling but it continues on while the US is fine yet continues to slide on life expectancy, infrastructure and equality. Those aren’t good signs for democracies. I guess we shall see.
Yes. The U.S. has low-speed trains running over bridges with homeless tents underneath.
Fantastic interview Quinton!! Peter was an awesome guest!
I find it fascinating, that Peter essentially never discusses India. A country, with a larger population than China, growing at a faster rate, and yet it never makes any of his presentations.
India is very nationalistic and old Soros hates that
Been watching Zeihan just about every day from his daily blog and catching presentations like this online, and my question is what he see's world population stabilizing at.
Quote from him on a Chris Williamson podcast (Pretty sure it was that) "If I'm right, we've already peaked in population."
Yeah, the world's population from here on out will only shrink.
-2B from what we are now
Definitely, both birth rates and fertility are falling rapidly, Scotland is already below sustainable level.
@@judithmackay7158 Agreed. but you hit too low, having read all his books etc, roughly first world countries are healthy demographics (if I remember right)
US
France
Sweden
New Zealand
(not first but) Argentina.
ALL of the rest of the European countries are well below sustain, Most are in massive decline. And the list above... most of the rest of the world is way past decline
$60k median income across the board requires we drop to 1.5 billion. 80% decline.
First time I've heard Peter do a full talk. He seems to know geopolitics in everything else I've seen him discuss, but being allowed to meander, it's also apparent he's full of shit.
It might be hard to get incredible improvements in transportation costs by using water if the Mississippi becomes too dry to float a barge a lot of the time.
Occasionally we have droughts. Occasionally we have floods. Stick around, it'll get better.
@@brianboggs7455 Climate change is changing everything. Stick around MAYBE it will get better.
If, Ifs and Buts were fruits and nuts...
Well you know, the thing...
Lol I think you've been watching a little too much CNN. It's been only a month since your comment and now we have way too much water.
English-speaking technical capacity in Mexico and South America is an absolute great thing, and it is already happening. It would be a shame for those countries to leave such a great market as IT outsourcing on the table, and I am glad they are not. It is so much easier to work with people in your own time zone or close to it.
We don't get enough high-level assessments like this. Unfortunately, with the education levels, it seems most people can't understand it.
I have watched a lot of Peter's interviews. They are really interesting but I couldn't get rid of a nagging feeling that there is something missing or something warping the truths which he states.
Then I realized what was missing: the biggest danger are not the changing physical conditions which Peter points out, but the inability of us, collectively, to react such changes rationally.
Politics, culture, and the way people socialize and interact has become so deranged and polarized that I can't see anyway that we can predict the crazy things people are persuaded to believe in order for people who want power to maintain it.
For example, when various global systems collapse, will Americans accept closer relations with Mexico despite the obvious advantages or necessity, or - more likely - will opportunistic politicians trying to cling to power continue to encourage them to burn the house down, and then double down by blaming the following damage as further "evidence" that they they need to keep on burning?
Good point. Also one more element is missing. The "elite". What I mean, is deep state + few of those elite clubs, like wef.
Very thought provoking book. He definitely had a very different perspective than Ray Dalio in his new book. Mr Dalio makes the argument about China's rise and the US decline while this author gives very compelling arguments that that may not be the case.
I know right. I love reading Ray Dalio as well. It's so interesting both Peter and Ray are so smart and intellectual and yet have such divergent thought on China.
Well, only one is being paid by CCP
Every high school student should be made to read his book or attend several lectures so they can see for themselves the world as it will soon become.
Knowledge is power.
I recognize that Peter indicates that cheap (low-interest) capital is going to be limited. But I think you have to seriously consider AI and automation will make a big difference. I look at 80’s Japan, but with computing power, as an example.
Social ills be damned.
You need young people
Gomer Pyle valid point. Elon Musk mentioned that if you can spawn robots as human beings then your cap on GDP is basically unlimited. So for that matter as long as GDP per capita grows, whether that is robots or humans, then you still have economic growth, which allows investments, which allows current systems to continue.
@@TokyoTaisu It won't cost anything to build robots. Lithium and cobalt will magically appear on the Earth.
@@Mike-fx4nu I'm not well read into the systems that enable robot production. Same as EV? Lithium and Cobalt? Afghanistan and Congo?
Why would he say we haven't had a president for 12 years?
Seems now would be the time we truly don't have a functioning president.
cringe
Despite the national debt, the dollar is basically the cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry basket.
There just is no other options.
BRICS is busy creating other options.
And starving is the best choice when stacked against cyanide.
Strange how politicians & business leaders don't understand the change from post-World War Two to post-Cold War
What is your view on authoritarianism and totalitarianism?? Everything you said seemed factual and fair EXCEPT remarks on Biden and Covid policies..
Very interesting presentation, one of the most interesting I've heard. When Peter says China will be unable to run any economic system we know of, what does that mean on the ground? Massive population die-off until it's balanced? Would that event be enough to change the Chinese Gov., or would not even that be enough to change how the country is run?
Even assuming Peter’s apocalyptic scenario plays out as he predicts, which is by no means certain or even likely, it probably won’t end up in hundreds of millions of casualties - humans are mobile after all and other countries won’t just stand by and do nothing.
As for your question, the party may as well survive even the most nightmarish scenario, as it’s just too deeply entrenched in its power base in Chinese interior - if you’re baffled at the way rural Russians support the Ukraine war, you’ll be even more dumbfounded by the blind devotion rural Chinese have for their rulers.
However, I don’t see coastal regions remaining under centralized control of the party in that scenario. They are educated and thus don’t really share the mindset of the people of the interior, are fickle and dependent on economic growth and as such may secede or become totally autonomous in all but name.
Most likely though they’ll double down on fanaticism and militarization of the whole society just as they’ve done in 1960s and 70s. Culturally, the Chinese are not likely to revolt unless the economic realities are awful to the point of mass starvation, and even then it may not be enough - see the Great Leap Forward.
Globalization should mean things like Egyptians making bronze with tin from Cornwall, not Egyptians having a military alliance the Hittites.
Military more profitable and unfortunately those in power are corrupted with greed. :/
Egyptians carry metal swords into battle, manufactured.
Mr. Hardy, thank you. While Mr Zeihan repeats himself charmingly, it is the occasional interviewer who helps also with shining a light on particularly interesting areas of his chiaroscuro musings.
I cannot think of anyone who has a better read on geopolitical reality. Superb!
So much of this goes so far over my head, and it's exciting. I have a lot to learn and am enjoying every second.
It helps to listen to counter arguments. However, Peter’s analysis almost always comes out on top. We’ve been raised on a diet of China is ten feet tall which isn’t the case.
@@jerryjessup9192 Ray Dalio. I don’t find him persuasive. But then I’ve come to the conclusion that part of the Pivot to Asia/China is ten feet tall argument is a resource grab by the Air Force and Navy. I’m not saying China isn’t a threat, but I think it’s overblown.
Who provoked the potential collapse of the German industrial model? What's the difference between being reliant on Russian gas or being reliant on US expensive LNG... The US can't compete on price so they blow-up NordStream2?
I enjoyed his appearance on Joe rogan so much, I decided to search out more of this guy. Good stuff
Who makes the machinery that produces the silicon chip and is the machinery of various refinement and manufacturers?
With everything going on right now, the best decision to be on any creative man's heart is having a profitable investment strategy.
Investing is the code for having a successful financial life, investing with the right expert would free you from modern financial slavery.
Investing in crypto now is really cool especially with the current price in the market for now
I definitely agree this current DIP is a huge opportunity to buy the DIP and also high volatility to yield more profit for day traders
I wanted to trade crypto but got confused by the fluctuations in price
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Lack of trade discipline is the primary reason for in day trade losses. It is estimated that nearly 80-85% of day traders end up losing money in the stock market
I have read and listened to Peter Ziehen based on the advise of a friend I respect. While he does say some interesting things he seems to be geared towards telling a American business audience what they want to hear. That they will come out on top without any effort based on geographic factors.
How would most Americans discern if this was true or false! It does NOT pay to be the harbinger of bad news... An economic blockade is an ACT of War --- the way USA is going will most likely cause WW3 which is what USA is begging for anyway inorder to avert an end of USD hegemony. The problem with this is that nuclear escalation is inevitable & China is unlikely to allow USA to attack (nuclear) first. Those who accept Peter Zeihan's comments on Russia & Ukraine I highly recommend Scott Ritter & Doug McGregor (just 5 mins) will expose JUST how strong Russia is & how weak USA is in reality! Ritter & McGregor are American patriots NOT being paid to speak they do not how to lie!
His narrative is based on the selected audience that pays for his biased viewpoints - which are not supported by reality. U picked this up but most sheeple listening won't, and believe he is a guru (LOL).
@@hlim431 Scott Ritter has two guily pleas in regards sex related offenses with what he thought were underage girls and served both probabation for the first offense and prison sentence for the second offense.
Douglas McGregor was rejected as amabassador to Germany by the US senate over numerous racist remarks and other unwise statements.
@@christophermills9289 Ritter was the guy who called out fake WMDs way before the Iraq invasion even happened.
He testified in the senate regarding these assertions. Senator Joe Biden told Ritter that he was making accusations against people far above his pay grade. Ritter was later proven to be absolutely correct. The establishment despises him for that.
Ritter was set up, tried on false charges with no witnesses. The American justice system is built to support the American establishment and the superempire hegemony. Any means necessary will be used against those viewed as threats.
At least Ritter is free, unlike others like Assange and Snowden.
As you noticed, zeihan is not a threat. He's contracted to team America. MacGregor as a free agent, is also somewhat threatening to the establishment. But Ritter actually challenged, beat and made a mockery of the establishment in its most hallowed hall. Think about that....
@@christophermills9289 Scott Ritter was likely punished for being a truth-teller. Ritter's original sin was that he told us Saddam had no WMD. If global elites don't like someone's message, it's a simple matter to conjure charges against them, and every person on the planet will probably be guilty of something. This is how control is sustained. Fear works, and every nation-state knows this. Similarly, now that Elon Musk is bringing free speech to Twitter, suddenly charges against him are appearing. Same with Trump or anyone who breaks the mold of go-along-to-get-along leaders.
I would be interested to hear if someone has a countering point of view.
So long as the U.S. is distracted at home, I don't think there is going to be a soft landing
In fact, I think the distractions at home are going to make the landing very hard
Home is the only matter we should be concerned with. We cannot solve this situation.
The one asset that could put things together after the collapse is a strong and healthy US.
Simply digitize civil wars.
We are so far from a strong and healthy USA however
The need for a certain amount of profit for the top, reinvestment and profit for the shareholders model continues to leave out so many that get removed, laid off or underpaid
This sad model continues though.
Zeihan is a national treasure and needs to be heard. Read between the lines on his narratives about climate change and energy production.
I came to the same conclusions about six months ago. It is nice to hear some confirmation. But I do think I would add to Peter's vision of the future. I think our "re industrialization" of the US economy is going to usher in greater change than we experienced with the Industrial Revolution. The only solution (it may be chaotic) that is realistic and possible that will help us to deal with the demographic inverse age problem -- that would be new technology, AI and robotics.
NO... we do NOT need more AI and robotics... We need MORE JOBS FOR PEOPLE, NOT the opposite. Wake up.
@@kerryaggen6346 Dear John Henry: Think of the Tesla Bot as enabling you to start a business and it will help you get the job done better, cheaper, quicker -- think of it as a tool that will make YOU more productive (and profitable). There are two different world visions. 1) All robots work for Bill Gates and we are all out of work and are slaves. Or 2) we all buy our own robots and compete with each other and get more done for less costs while making more money -- and we do it better. Overall more stuff gets made and done. It is like, 3D printing undoes the centralization of the Industrial Revolution. After all, the national GDP mostly measures what we buy from each other. I am buying an Aptera car with a 1000 mile range, a solar roof for my house, and a powerwall. That gives me a lot more freedom. I can give the finger to the "big oil" companies. With robotics more people will be growing their own much healthier food -- the robots will take the drudgery out of it. I am going to chose door two.
@@colinkelley6493 My point is that unemployment is high now, and will continue to rise as the US$ finally dies, which will be soon. Plus, with millions of new illegal aliens in our country, they are taking the lower paying jobs, thus making even fewer jobs available for Citizens/Legal Residents, exacerbating unemployment issues. Therefore, it makes no sense to increase automation, as that decimates jobs even further. AND, increases the numbers of people who cannot afford to buy stuff, or even pay rent or feed themselves. Thus, it can be argued that FURTHER AUTOMATION (and illegal aliens) MAY ACTUALLY DECREASE GDP...
BTW, GDP is just a number... There are many factors that play into it that cannot be easily measured or calculated. Thus, GDP is NOT the best "measure" of the "health" of a nation's economy, or the health of a nation. Another BTW - according to your emphasis re. GDP, your example results in LOWER GDP, as you're not continually purchasing hydrocarbons...
@@kerryaggen6346 OK. This may surprise you. I actually do not argue with ANY of your bullet points, this is what has been happening -- except I think they may be a little bit behind the times. I too am both saddened and disgusted with the homelessness in blue state big cities -- the crime, the drugs, the constant agitation to mob anger. But I think there is more going on overall. And I have a different take about our immediate future -- the next ten years. Recently, in the last quarter, there have been a lot fewer people falling into unemployment and lot more new hires. Employment is going up? Why? I think there is a trend and a reason behind it. The globalists who control the FED and banking system and much more -- have lost the war in Ukraine with Russia and they have lost their control over China. They are moving into a new kind of war -- an economic war. They are currently moving most of Germany's industry to the US. They are quietly moving the industry they shipped off to China twelve years ago back to Mexico and the US. Mexican laborers are more skilled than Chinese and they work for 1/3 the pay. It looks to me like the "powers that be" have come to the conclusion that to keep our "American Hegemony" going we have to out manufacture and out produce China -- we have to compete with China on a global scale exporting food and goods around the world. We are currently lowering the value of the dollar to help us become a much bigger manufacturing and exporting nation and to give us a positive balance of trade --. which will also help to pay off our national debt. I predict there will be no unemployment in less than a year in America, and no recession. Let the good times roll.
The idea that Trump was not a president strikes me as naive and not the great ideas of a geopolitical analyst expert. In politics he should be neutral but he is is not. Peter believes that a senile man that most of the time can not form a complete coherent sentence is a president wanting policies like BUILD BACK BETTER is so amazing. This is the agenda of the GREAT RESET. A guy like Peter acts as MR KNOW IT ALL and it is very funny. Trump warned Merkel about their oil dependence and now we have the Ukraine war and Germany will have their in industrial base destroyed according to the same Peter. And I agreed. In terms of China and Iran Trump put everything into perspective. Closed the Iran deal that Obama and Germany incorrectly implemented. Iran now is s a big threat according to the same Peter. There were no wars during Trump while Biden created the disaster exit of Afghanistan, the Ukrainian war and the ok inflation crisis and now we have China threatening Taiwan and North Korea challenging both Japan a South Korea on a dail basis.
Peter changes positions every day. Does Peter approve of Hunter Biden deals with China and Ukraine ?
Trump was a manager, Obama was a public ideology operator and Biden is a reactive. None of them are presidential if truth be told when compared to historical figures.
Thanks for bringing this up, loved 99% of the interview until Biden gets brought up as "a president that's trying" (to stay alive?) while Trump gets thrown with the bath water
Well said.
Every time Peter speaks he always points out how well the USA is positioned for the future, economically, demographically, etc.
Have to keep in mind it's also usually comparatively to the rest of the world. The US is still I'm sure in for some amount of pain and certainly turmoil, but is positioned to do alot better than everyone else.
@@chickenfishhybrid44 yes, both the US and Canada are energy and food secure countries. We have a much better chance of survival.
He's also a proud American.
@@obtuseangler768 indeed.
It's not just the USA, but North America in general. The rest of the world can rip its guts out in the chaos of the next 20 years, but North America will be just fine.
@@obtuseangler768 This, plus Mexico, and probably plus much of Latin and South American because of their proximity to the US and Canada. Look forward to a very strong trade alliances between these countries in the nearish future.
The guy from Google added in the bit about problematic future for "the unvaccinated" WHO WOULD HAVE THOUGHT.
"Biden is trying" he says! Trying to get himself dressed? Trying to figure out what day it is?
Wish I had caught this live to ask a question. What's to stop Putin simply burning off his excess oil to stop the pressure building up back to the permafrost Wells?
this is my problem with analysts, sometimes they underestimate people's adaptability
Could they really just burn off that amount of oil? That's millions of tons of oil. That will cause an ecological disaster, which they may not care about, but which will certainly bring about a massive war in Euro-Russia.
@@77goanywhere they wouldn't have to burn off everything, they'd reduce the flow to the minimum without freezing and just burn off whatever they can't sell in the far east. Maybe they'd do it in some of the uninhabited areas of Russia
Although Russia is exporting less oil and gas, they are still exporting a lot.
Russian gas is still reaching Europe, but now in the form of LNG. Russian oil will still reach EU/G7, but via middlemen or refined as petroleum, diesel and so on.
@@pettahify just as oil kept flowing from Iran and reached the US in the 70’s
This guy totally blew up his credibility when he assessed Biden as a comparativey competent President.
Thank you for this thought provoking interview.
Peter does great work giving insights to how the world works, I think my only criticism is that Peter doesn’t look at how profoundly technological changes influence the world. Analyst of the past never saw the green revolution, fracking, or even fairly obvious things like trends like the internet having the impacts they’ve had. A lot of these issues could be resolved in a blip and our input/output calculations could change dramatically.
True but can anyone predict those black swan events...
China just needs to build some pipelines to the middle east and its problem solved. They can do it.
What a fabulous interview. Congratulations to you both.
FABULOUS MY A$* HAHAHAHAHA LOL 😂😂👍👍👍
@@dannytadashi4235 just 2 men lost in life talking and providing negative solutions. the guy on the right is smiling while saying "hey things are getting worse"... "wow look how interesting it is that things go badly"... "smile"... sick reality we live in. very lost with no direction.
@@xadion6866 agreed 😃👍
@@xadion6866 agreed 😃👍
Don’t mess with the Zeihan. Go back to his old RUclips’s and his predictions and calls are quite spot on.
To Peter all I have to say is FJB !
Was President Xi able to finalize a $50B trade deal with Saudi Arabia wherein the dollar was discarded in favor of the Chinese Yuan as the currency the Saudi's would accept and if so, what if any implications are there for dollar hegemony?
US or India could just blocade the Strait of Malacca. No more oil for China.
I am listening to Peter for a while now, he tends to be unrealistically biased when it comes to China or Russia.
@David Moody i am not saying that China and Russia are flawless countries. All countries have flaws in their system. So I don't strongly disagree with you. My point is, Peter tend to ridicule and mostly underestimate, I believe intentionally, others. This make his views in my opinion less objective. What I am saying is, take his opinions with a grain of salt!
@David Moody keep dreaming
His ideas are primarily based on demographics.
Thank You for your service and hard work. Merry Christmas! Glad I found you...
Where can one find Peter zeihans current videos?
I was laughing out loud at how "Europeans are innovative about restricting migration". We are in the middle of the largest single spike of external migration into Europe in recorded history. Does Peter not read the papers?
Thanks for noticing. As a denizen of comment sections, I notice most comments end up fawning over the program. I appreciate kindness, but notice there's not much critical thinking.
Refugee flows and by-the-book immigration are different things. For someone from say a country like Mexico to be able to immigrate to Germany is very difficult.
I challenge you too look at overall immigration rates and rates into specific areas, relative to other regions. When he makes comments like that, it’s based on data analyses and extensive study of the subject matter with people throughout Europe. Headlines are often at odds with reality or trends, and like to cherry-pick alarmist tones for ad revenue.
No, he’s right. It is because of the vast numbers of migrants moving into Europe that Europe is getting innovative about restricting migration.
@@AsianDudeX01 He really bypassed discussing what will happen now that we have a wide open southern U.S. border that allows terrorists, drugs, thieves, and totally broke people unvetted into the U.S. It is rediculous that he did not eleborate on what it will do in the immediate future to our economy. Is this Joe Biden's America?? Remember it was Democrats who fought for slavery back in the civil war and after.
Great interview with Zeihan. What's up with the dark lighting under Peter's eyes? It almost makes him look like a nice gentle Sith Lord.
Overhead lighting, look at the shadows on and under his collar. Time for the ring light and blue yeti. That beige background tho... looks like jail.
a fool's talk
I was cringing at this. I would like to help him with better lighting and background but he is way too popular to listen to me, an unknown photographer.
this is the kind of info. we need & not available on ANY national or international media, thanks
Peter forecast an influx of foreign capital looking for a safe harbor. My question is won’t that offset the loss of boomer capital?
Good point. With the amount boomers are set to suck out of the system in pensions, Healthcare etc. I suspect he doesn't think foreign investment will rise to that level.
It already has. It also American policy
What a great interview! I think one option Peter hasn't considered is a peace in Ukraine. It won't take long before Russian oil and gas starts flowing to Europe.
This was good. Dunning Kruger always gives the best interviews. 👍
Oh man. That was good!
Wait a minute ...
Thank you for this video. Mr. Zeihan is truly a wonder.
Subscribed.
Great interview!
Shows how important it is to do our own research and educate ourselves.
This is looking at the situation without taking all aspects into consideration.
Peter, thank you so much for your continuity of care in your discussions of global dynamics. Thank you, Quentin, for your insightful questions and comments. My best wishes to you both for this discussion. Stay safe and be healthy. Diane Dean
Once upon a time, America was the most powerful industrialized nation in the world. Everything we purchased said Made in USA.
And with the rise in American Mass Production came the rise of our Working Class and Middle Class.
No more.
For the past several Decades, American Big Business Owners have been firing their American Employees by the Millions and then have shipped their factories -- along with our latest Manufacturing Technology -- to China, where Chinese Big Business Owners pay their peasant workers ten cents on the dollar.
So you know those jobs are never returning to our shores, the political promises of our politicians notwithstanding. But you already know that.
And with the Loss of Mass Production came the loss of our Working Class and our Middle Class and the Rise of Mass Unemployment and Underemployment.
Now everything that we buy from WalMart, BestBuy, Macy's, AutoZone, Target, etc. now states Made In China. Indeed, China has become the global manufacturer of choice, if truth be told.
Blame whom we wish, but we can thank American Big Business Owners and the Wall Street Banksters for that.
Ethnic Minority Groups have been in North America for over 400 years, yet few of them have escaped their Homeland of Origin. Originally coming from Primitive Societies, most ethnic minorities have NOT been able to rise to the White Average on Educational and Income Attainment
-- even after all these many Centuries in North America.
Here is the Problem:
To Blame this on Racism, while Convenient, is a Trap.
It argues that Only When/After Racism Is Eliminated, will minorities then be able to rise to be on Par with the White Majority in educational parity and income parity
-- But not before...
But that can be a convenient -- (and an often used) -- excuse for rationalizing Subpar Academic Performance, plus subpar performance in other areas.
According to Peter, American only imports 6% of our needs so it’s not really a significant issue.
I personally witnessed greedy out of state owners working with New York investment bankers sell off New England manufacturing sites one after another. Greedy Fortune 50 corps. selling several small town established factories because they wanted to boost the shareholder values (and their own pocket). Greed destroyed much of our manufacturing economy. It was heart breaking.
@@jimgriffiths9071 From your perspective, it was "greed" that was the key motivating force that caused the relocation of these manufacturing sites. From a more nuanced perspective, it was actually "survival instinct" that was the cause. If management had decided to stay in New England, the first event would be the firing of the CEO as they lost market share to outside competition. Then the entire management team. Then bankruptcy as their costs exceeded revenues. Many of those textile facilities first moved to the South and then overseas. The only way they might have survived in New England is if we had a Socialistic government and economy but then the whole country would eventually go bankrupt.
@@italukr wrong. Precision manufacturing. We had training funds and below market financing for new tooling. It was pure greed.
The thing I like about Peter’s talks is that he’s reminded me of history I’ve long forgotten in favor of all the empty propaganda stuffed into my head since the commencement of the internet Information Age.
I can tell you that most major US REITs have moved to industrial
Well, In my mind, the jury has been out regarding Peter’s presentations that I have watched over the last year. Is he someone who actually is what he is made out to be, a prognosticator of the near and medium term who brings in demographics, industry, energy, and geopolitical insights to tell a compelling tale? The very fact that he is doing this on this RUclips Channel, tips the balance for me to be skeptical of his predictions. I have never seen a particularly believable guest on this channel. His tendency to present his predictions as if the were a metaphysical certitude to occur is where my skepticism in Peter was seeded, but it is upsetting to no longer feel that he is a good source for info, because his schtick and his charisma is a hard pair to match for sheer entertaining world events.
Troll much ?
Well said, and I agree with much of it. I think he does miss the diversity of human response to changing pressures. But then that is a problem with all simulations or speculations about the future. The more one wishes to model a system, the finer the granularity must be. And I don't think he is even modelling his predictions. I think he is generalizing his observations into behaviors that seem obvious to him.
For example, while he is predicting the death of globalization, he completely ignore the rise of globalist organizations, such as the WEF that is training state leaders to behave in non local manners. That alone is a wild card influencing nation state behavior in a non-democratic way, and with not accountability or responsibility. We have yet to see the damage the WEF, under the auspices of a new climate religion to save the planet, will cause while claiming to save the planet . . . No one is asking "For Whom?"
Couldn't have said it better myself. I hope he is correct as he is incredibly entertaining to watch, but his certainty is unsettling.
He tipped his hand when he claimed Biden is a good president. Ha ha ha .
@@mdgeroy Yeah. That goes a *LONG LONG* way to destroy he credibility in general . . .
For all his many great insights, Zeihan seems to have a blind spot: he is incapable of seeing people as individuals. They are components of systems and centers, driven by pressures and forces outside of their control. But in the real world, sometimes an individual just says, "no." Sometimes a whole lot of individuals, without coaxing or coordination, say, "no." And that can change everything.
As an addition to @Andrew Bobb's point, there is very little place for philosophy and ideas in his worldview, although maybe he ought to be asked this by interviewers.
He sees some Americans as individuals, and most people behaving in blocs, because that’s reality. The US is a fairytale compared to the rest of the world. If someone has a solidified American experience into their adulthood, it’s extremely difficult to even begin to understand the world, let alone the United States itself.
Wow. Thsnks
For the most part people behave predictably. That’s what Zeihan is tapping into.
@@mangonut exactly, you can’t predict what any one person will do in certain circumstances, but you can pretty reliably predict what large numbers of people will do in those circumstances
Maybe businesses could invest their record profits into manufacturing instead of stock buybacks?
Maybe workers could get higher wages and first world healrhcare.
It would be interesting to hear an expert's take on the future of agriculture with (a) a reduction in available labour (population & immigration decline) and (b) Climate Change (different weather conditions, animal migration, crop die-off where no longer viable, crop growth where not previously viable).
In the UK we have had a massive number of farm closures due to supermarket price cutting to the bone and lack of labour (a Brexit own-goal). We're also finding increased diseased rates in some crops and wild-fires causing issues for some farmers, but we're producing English wine in larger quantities, and even in award-winning quality.
Long time Zeihanalyst here.
P.S First! 😎
Not only the USA, but in UK, the suburbs or villages are often more prosperous and are seen as better places to bring up families.
many times disproven by urbanists that american style suburbs are good
Not anymore. In many American cities, suburbs have been degrading for two decades. So have the ones ringing Birmingham, London, Paris, Amsterdam, Frankfurt, etc. LA, Seattle, Chicago, Milwaukee, Buffalo, Boston, NYC, Philly, Cleveland all have degrading suburbs.
37:32 How OLD is this documentary? It really bothers me that You Tube doesn't have a "published date" anymore (it may not always be exactly accurate to info contained in a video but would give some insight). Anyway, the 1 child policy in China was adopted in the 1979 ~ not 4 years ago ~ at least from now. OH, that was a blip, but now you know in case you didn't. ha ha.
Yes! They should ALWAYS state a published date. Drives me crazy!
@@tomingrassiaimages8776 It seems You Tube just deliberately stopped publishing the date posted within the last few months. Documentaries should have the date imprinted on the films in a corner.
Correction: Globalization is not dead. Instead, Americanization is dead
Predictions are often based in the sin of Pride. Over time we come to base our ego upon our predictions. In order to support our ego we assemble people around us who agree with our predictions. Predictions then become an exercise in ego building not in predicting reality.
I admire Mr. Zeihan admitting where his predictions haven’t been exactly accurate. He seems to be managing his ego outside of his predictions. A business professor once said you always need one person in the room who will tell you when you’re wrong. Your ego will treat him as if he is a lunatic. The lunatic often represents reality outside of your ego. Ergo you have become the lunatic (See Putin, Xi, etc…).
State Chattel are bred & conditioned to become aware when it is "too late". See 1979 report to POTUS on greenhouse gases.
My chattel knows what I tell them, "My sheep hear My voice" & even Alex Jones knows to mark his targets while singing along with Jesus-lingo.
As if there were no pride pleasured with notions "We are all gods, Children of the Most High God" appointed as sacred literature.