Should We Fold This Flush? | Ask SplitSuit
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- Опубликовано: 21 сен 2024
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In this tournament hand, Hero flops a flush from the BB. SplitSuit looks at this multi-way pot considering the math, hand ranges, hand combos, and more. James uses the strengths of Equilab to determine, if Hero is as far ahead or behind as he might think.
If you're looking for a glimpse into improving your understanding of hand ranges & equity percentages, this is a great place to start!
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Just a cooler my man, nothing you can do
Only if the tightest player ever shoved in that situation would I fold. But I'd call a loose player in that situation any day. Especially if I had him covered.
This is a really tough spot but in a tourny..MP2 doesn't have the nuts often. He more likely has a draw to the nuts. Plus, the big one for me is that I loose 1/2 my stack but still right in the average stack to the table. So I go down to 20k or go to 60-80k. I am not folding here. You rarely get spots to gamble & not bust in a tourny. So...I'm ALL IN BABY!!! lol then I quickly move on to the next hand. Still got plenty of chips.
Excellent video. I love when you really stress the importance of not putting a player on a hand but a range of hands. I would always call because an over limper will have a lot of small suited hands that we crush. Those Ax rags tho fit his range too, but still have to call IMO
Chad Moore thanks Chad!
James thanks alot for posting my hand your analysis seems to be on course with mine in the given spot. The reason I thought that he had a flush was that my image in this room is as a big nit. So for him to jam over my lead out and a raise is very strong IMO, and was the main factor to my even considering folding. Thabks again for your time and input.
Chris
You had a very good hand reading thinking he would have a flush 70 to 80% of the time as your image is a big nit. Impressive analysis.
easy call. no guarantee youre going to win every time with it, but easy call.
I think call is also correct since I feel like it's actually less likely the nutflush would shove?!? Like if I was in the position of the nutflush I probably would have just called and hoped for a reraise by hero or more action on the turn?!?
It was a very weird shove. I would never think nut flush could shove here. More equity in just a call.
raise reraise, hes gonna get atleast 1 call with a shove. waiting/slow playing/baiting makes you look strong
Yeah no
@@cyruslever586 Result oriented reply
I don't know but I think this is a fold, there are two player and I don't think they will reraise with nothing in a multi way pot, I would just fold and lose some chips not half my stack, if it where 1 vs 1 that would be OK to call but if he has a LAG HUD, otherwise if he is a TAG, nit player I would fold 100% for half my stack in that situation, it depends of the player tendencies and his range in that position/situation/bet size, if it is the first time he 4bet or go all in obviously fold if he has done it sometimes before with nothing to strong you should consider continue, but that is a tough decision nice situation. Thanks.
As played, easily leaning towards folding it. I don't even think you should have a leading range on this flop, unless you're a terrible player. Almost the entire deck is a good turn card if it checks through / check-call. 2, 7, 8 are great cards - they might make/rep trips, and you have the nut bluffcatcher in a 5-way pot. Offsuit 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, T, J all give them either strong straights or gutshots + flush draws. Offsuit Q K A give them strong top-pair / two-pair. Finally, if you show weakness, they will definitely overvalue small flushes, allowing the pot to grow easily. Why choose this terrible line and donk-call-off-cold-3bet-shove like a fish? Why play scared poker with an only 17% chance (at best) of catching a bad turn card?
Hey split, I don’t think MP2 would raise all in against a bet and a raise with just 2 pairs or sets on such coordinated flop, especially when having those pairs or sets makes it more likely for others to have the flush. I’d assign 1/3 probability each to A-high or K-high flush, and 1/3 to everything else for MP2. If I’m MP2 I just think it’s so likely for Hero or MP1 to have a flush that I wouldn’t do this with pairs.
It is one of those brutal tournament situations.
In any 5 way limped pot, in tournaments, I'm already throwing up a little bit, because this is often what happens, 2 giant hands collide and there is nothing you can do. In 5 way limped pots I almost don't want to hit anything.
Just as an observation:
Q T of clubs is of course a super great made hand, however, any legitimate hands that stack off, should not be drawing dead.
I'm not saying I'd fold, I'd say it is a crying call every time, because it is essentially putting a huge pot in the hands of the dealer.
In a tournament after working so hard to do everything I can to avoid allowing the dealer to decide who wins, here we are in a situation where there is no decision, and it sucks.
Such a weird rationale the villain had shoving with the nuts. most of the time the hero folds and can only really call with the second and third nut flush. King high flush draw might call, but in reality the villain lucked up with a hand that called. I don't think villain is shoving all in with low flushes right there to a bet and a raise in front though. Villain seems inexperienced. If I was the villain I would have definitely called the re raise on the flop and tried to get more bluffs at me and I think I could have gotten hero to call me if he stopped betting. especially since the hero was first to act and probably would have bet again on the turn, who knows, maybe I could have gotten the guy who re raised on the flop to come along as well, unless he had absolute air. Love the videos! Wish I had you as a poker coach!
He made stacks get in as soon as possible and doubled up, his plan was clearly to get value from flushes and one card flushes and in the worst case he picks up the pot plus loose guy's chips
@@majorbob7211 I disagree. I think he was a mediocre player that loved his nut flush, and didn't for a second think he was betting for value from weaker flushes. He certainly didn't even consider that he would cause sets to fold, which are all in the range of the opener and raiser postflop. My guess is no plan, hero lost to variance though he made the correct mathematical call.
I was in this kind of situation. I hit flush after flop. At the river card, again another same suited card came. Guess what? Another player had only ace suited.
This isn't that rare, I reckon I see this happen maybe once per week.
Why does mp2 rip the flop, after a continuation bet AND a raise, with the nuts?
I wouldn’t expect that big made flush to shove as much anyways so they could extract value on future streets
right with you, I think the villain was not a strong player and didn't think it through.
If your going to fold your best hands and the top of your range what are you really going to continue with??
dude, super videos ! keep it up !
sssalexsss07 thanks!
Thanks so much for your insight James. The reason I thought he most likely had a flush here is my image in that poker room is as a big nit. So I lead ,get raised he in turn jams on the guy who originally raised me. To me that signifies alot i f strength, thats why i was 70% 80% sure he had a flush
This is a classic example of someone being results orientated. It's the same bs you get about people who question whether it was right to go all in with a short stack holding JJ. After there has already been a raise.
In a ring game I would call. In a tournament situation like this I would fold (after much hair pulling). Does anyone risk their tournament life on one hand with an all-in bluff against a raise into two people and a rereaise? With a 14BB win vs a potential 31BB loss? In a ring game that might make sense, but in a tournament? Remember: tournament chips are not 1:1 money, so a straight EV calculation will give you a false reading. Playrer is deep enough to wait for another opportunity that is more clear cut.
At least someone thinks like me. Taking in account the icm and the risk reward ...that is an easy fold
I lost with a flush JT against a K7 flush yesterday. Was rather costly.... The third flush card came on the river. I called the potsize bet of villain. I figure, you just can’t be that exact in putting someone on a hand in the given time online. Call with your good hand and hope for the best. If he would have shoved, I would have folded, but he probably knew that. He may have been unsure if I hold the ace. You win other pots the other way around, that’s poker.
Should HERO have reshoved instead of calling?
I honestly think you over simplify it here. In everything but a 1$ unlimited rebuy, a fold should at least be considered here in my opinion.
Yes, vs MP2 we probably have the equity to call, but what about MP1? My guess is that MP1 can have all the sets and higher flushes as well, and this probably lowers our equity to 30%-40%. So the question is, do we really need to risk 30bbs in a slight +chipEV call when we only commited 2 bbs postflop?
In some games it's certainly a call, but in others it's more or less a snapfold for me. Remember that this is a 3bet on the flop and we are not even closing the action, adding to that, the times we are behind, we are drawing dead with no redraw.
MouZeWarrioR ** since MP1 was described as loose I assume his raising range has plenty of hands that will either raise/fold, or raise/call and we are in good shape. Since hero has seen MP2 play A♣Xx like this before...I can't imagine folding with 30bb starting stacks. But the deeper the stacks are, the more I consider folding...
Kevin Bailey Versus ONE opponent. On my screen it locks like there are TWO opponents. Try getting a big +EV shove versus two ranges, I dare you
Kevin Bailey You can't say that MP1 doesn't have value hands in his range, it's rediculous. He might fold a big chunk of his range, but that isn't the same thing as always folding
Kevin Bailey I don't care what he folds, I care about what he calls with. And no, James didn't really touch on MP1 range at all
Tell me, is sets+all reasonable flushes reasonable for MP2? Is sets,all reasonable flushes,AcXx,KcXx,99+ a reasonable range for MP1? Congratulations, you are 31.5% versus thoese two ranges
Why would he jam with AXcc?? This is just a cooler because the villain should never shove in this spot with the nuts. But perhaps that was his strategy; conceal the nuts by making a dumb bet?
"Here he has high/nut flush 80% of the time, or more."
Ummm, and he's RAISING the flop? Most nut-flushes are going to smooth-call the flop. This way, if the opening bettor has a pocket-pair, with a club, and you call, he'll suspect he's still good. And, if he has a high-pocket-pair WITH a club as "back-up," (say JJ), he might continue being aggressive on the turn, and he's all-but drawing dead.
I struggle to follow this guys videos, so my level is not great but what you've said is exactly what I'd expect. I feel that if it were me and I had the nut flush. if I jam it, everyone folds and I don't get paid.
Does the answer differ if calling and losing would cost you your tournament life? For instance, in a cash game, the math is simple bc the financial implications are immediate. In a tournament though, doubling up is nice, but is it worth it when it means that when you are beat that you have no chance at winning any money at all (or less money if you've gotten past the bubble). It seems to me that there are many more circumstances to consider when making this call in a tournament. Please correct me if I'm wrong for I am here to learn
There's only 2 cards in the whole deck he has to worry about and even if one of them has the Ace or King of Clubs it's likely single club hands. I'd probably call here having over 20k left. The odds of them flopping a flush and having the Ace or King is just to low to worry about in this spot. Plus why would he push all in with the nuts? Most likely he has Aces or Kings or maybe a set and is afraid of the flush draw.
The question is not how do we stand against MP1 or MP2. The question is how do we stand against the maximum of the two.
By their play they both could have a bigger flush.
Another question: Why would someone with nuts flush bet all-in at this spot?
Maybe he did not want to let a bad card rool off and kill action, or maybe he was just really excited, that he had the nuts.
I feel like the South Park "Annnd its gone" meme needs to be inserted at the end of this play.
Ace of clubs 8 off suit you cpuld easily have. Pocket 8's pocket 7's or even a combo draw like 5 6 clubs or 6 9 of clubs
Ship it.
I agree with the call here, but just saying, 6:35 it's not 30 big blinds, it's 70!
Effective stacks are 30BB. Hero has them both covered.
Miguel Waide made a comment below me that I believe is as wrong as anyone can be in this situation. This is the way I would think about this spot. We are c-betting as the big stack, there is no reason for either of our opponents to think we have anything of real value here, it's just a c-bet on a monotone board. The player who raises us could have a pair and a club, but could also just have top pair and be protecting, remember we dont have to have much of anything here. The player who shoves then, must think he is ahead of that raising range, and as Splitsuit shows with Equilab, we are usually ahead of even that shoving range. Also important, alot of times when we are ahead our opponents have little or no outs to beat us. We can knock them both out, and if we are very unlucky and the 3rd nuts are not good, then We are still above starting stack, and in fine position to play on and possibly win this thing... Still.
You have to get it in. There's just such a little chance of two high flopped flushes to hit the board that you might as well call because he can shove with pretty much anything in the range that James assigned him, especially at those stakes. You'll have to be Mike Matusow or Phil Helmuth, Daniel Negreanu to make that kinda fold.
Diavolo222 Not true, I would fold it too and i couldn't believe he didn't. Why? After flop i would raise around 2100. The second player raised me and got rerased. For me it means that I represent top pair+, maybe flash draw+, strait flash draw+, so he has to be comfortable against this range. He unfortunately got rerased too. The third guy's range looks for me like top set, flash with A or K, or flash draw with A. Against this range we don't play well. In best case we are flipping for 50% of our stack. So it is easy fold for me.
Axel Nowaczyk but with this limpi fishy Players there is always the chanc they overestimated their Hands. i play only cash game
:) i play only tournaments. Blinds are 300/600 so this is not beginning of the tournament. I also don't think anyone of them would bluff. I also don't think they are stupid to play for 30BB with garbage. If the third guy would have 10BB i would call, because with 10BB his range is tight and probably he missed this board. I think this is really bad spot.
Probably you have different opinion because you are cash player and you always play with 50-100BB, but tournaments are different.
I have seen Negreanu play so much that I would not see him fold anytime on that flop
Get it in
Hello James,
I have watched plenty of your videos and they are immensively helpful but I still got one question. I just play poker more constructively for around 3/4 of a year and I'm a really tight player. So, I have problems reacting to big preflop bets when I have something like AJ or mid pairs from 77 to JJ. The bets I have to face there are at least 4 BB. It's especially problematic when it's quite unusual for this player or a tell and I then interpret this as if he has a strong hand like AA, KK, QQ, AK... Moreover it's more probable then that he will continue betting and raising postflop, isn't it?
Thank you and good bye
knompf thanks for watching! As for your question, keep working on your postflop game so you don't feel uncomfortable giving an extra 1-1.5bb raise action preflop.
split suit do you play poker? you talk about the micros alot and you play hands well but might be unbalanced? would you be a winning player at $ 10 20 plus,
clear call especially when you have both players convered and are ahead here the majority of the time.
I dont know, i would have folded, he was in position so he had seen all the previous action, very likely that hero or mp1 had a flush, so when he sees that much action he is going to value bet a lot with k9 and aces combos .The fact that he was in position when he shoved and that he isnt very loose says a lot.
Moreover SB could also have a better flush A3 or K3
"Hero needs to make a decision at this point".
He really doesn't.
Can't fold that hand. It's not the nuts, but it's a Monster hand onto a very rare flop. Happens about 1 out of ever 120 flops with 2 suited cards. You may not make a better hand in the course of an entire tournament, so if you are folding here, is that really good game theory? No
im never folding here eventhough I no longer play poker
Wait... if you don’t play, why do you watch these?
I get raised preflop with AKo so I 3-Bet he pushes I call he has K2o I am all happy we hit the K on the flop, nothing on the turn then hit the 2 on the river... when life gives you bull
Math doesn't explain why the villain would jam without the nut flush.
Exactly... You have to ask yourself what sort of hands would he re-raise all-in there. It could always be a stone cold bluff, but if that's not the case I think most players would be fairly cautious if they didn't have the A or K of clubs.
It's true that I tend to be a bit more conservative than most players, but I'd probably just take my loss of $1.5k and live to fight another day. The calculus is different if it's a 2-way pot, but with it going 3-ways, you've got to figure one of them has got ya.
Even If I was part psychic, I still call here.
Exactly , it's like folding KK pre flop
Staying in a hand just because you have pretty cards is a big and expensive mistake, making moves that make sense is the key to success in poker.
Tristan Lamarca
lol
Tristan Lamarca
Folding coolers is a ticket to Hooverville.
The whole point of the video and equity calc was to mathematically show that CALLING was the move that makes sense.
If the villain is loose, going by the word of the player, then you are ahead and with that much in the pot you have more than enough odds to call.
Old video, but folding here seems criminal
Should we write first?
WargameProductions up to you =)
If u believe in yr read, fold might be good
Yeah, probably...
his thumbnails always remind me of blue balls for some reason
I dont understand. Ok, I know mathematically this is a correct call, but isnt it ok to fold too in this spot. Yeah, I know math is a fantastic tool, but sometimes math isnt enough.
This isnt a bragging historie. It was a 3 handed cashgame playing 1/2. I had 64s and raised preflop to 6. Flop was 852. I was pretty happy with this flop so I CB in pos I think it was like 10. I got called and turn showed a 5. I have been playing against this player for a long time and I knew he could call anything just to see what I was gonna do later. I decided to CB the turn too and ended up betting a little over 20. He then called and the river was a 3. He checked again and I bet like 50. He then reraised me to 150 and I just got the feeling I was beat. I folded and showed my hand. He then got a little mad because I didnt call with such a good hand. He had 55 btw. Then the other player said that I at least should have called.
Point is, should you call just because the math tells you or should you trust your instinct?
+Aleksander Larsen if the math isn't going to persuade you, I'm not 100% sure what would.
+The Poker Bank You missed the point of my post. Do you ignore instinct and play math 100% of the time? Do you call even if you have a gut feeling you are beat just because math is in favor of calling? Is this not a valid question that deserves a serious answer.
Your bullshit answer about "if the math isn't going to persuade you, I'm not 100% sure what would." is just a joke. Sorry, but it is. Im not saying math isnt important. Poker is mostly about math, but in the heat of the moment you cant break down all the numbers like in this movie. My opinion and point of my post is that shouldnt instinct be a factor too in cases like this? The math is on your side, but it doesnt mean it has to be by much.
Again please dont give me a bullshit answer. Im not doubting the value of math.
+Aleksander Larsen most players let their instincts turn decisions into binary ones (so your instinct told you that villain must only have the nuts in your 64 hand, so you folded). Instinct can influence your range assessment, but it's rarely a binary thing where villain either YES has the ultra-nuts or NO does not. Instincts are also built from our experiences, which for most poker players is super small and negatively-impacted by the fact that people remember outliers more often than they remember mild information. Players also have self-serving biases and use instincts instead of math to try to prove something (and let's be honest, it's easier to make an instinct play than it is to make a complex math decision).So the non-bullshit answer is use math as your framework and instincts (within reason) to build a precise range of hands.
+The Poker Bank And this was the answer I was looking for. Not a small answer that was kind of condescending implying that I didnt value math. I have said so several times, math should always be the main factor for decision making. And I agree that instinct is a difficult tool to use because of reasons you have already said. But when do you start to trust instinct? I try to use math/reason in smaller or medium size pots. In big all inn situations and situations you can be eliminated from, personally I feel instinct taking over more and more.
But you make a lot of sense. And its hard to argue about that. But I doubt so many are able to make such complex math problems on the spot when in a hand. That takes a lot of practice. Im far from being that good.
In my 64 hand I had a lot of experience playing against that player. Even if he had a big tendency to bluff big sometimes, he knew I was more than capable of calling the bet leaving me the only option that he had a full house or better. It was pure experience. I know there may not be a lot of situations where you get to play against a player you are this familiar with. But what do you think? In an isolated situation like this should I call even if instinct and experience tells me no? This was live poker btw if that has a factor at all.
+Aleksander Larsen I think your perception of "instinct" is a bit clouded. Instinctual decisions are made based on several factors including: experience (like James has mentioned), reads that you're getting from the player, which is interconnected with experience as it is what will help you decide whether or not you should go with your read, and most importantly and most reliable once you become AWARE of what you are actually doing, MATH. The Math IS what backs your instincts. A lot of the decisions you make on the table is math based and you may not realize this. You mentioned something about "getting the feeling you were beat", well, that was a byproduct of the math you were subconsciously doing. You were using Bayes Theorem without realizing it. And the more conscious you are of this process the better! Poker players has given the word instinct the connotation of it being "magical" or what have you. Fundamentally it is a process and the math is your road-map to help you derive to a sound decision. Happy grinding and stay aware!
This is one of those hands that doesn't need analysis at all imo. Just click the call button you have a high flush... If he's got got you beat congratulations. I'd expect to see the same play with sets, 2 pair, and Aclubs offsuit x by many decent players.
You really could call a set on that board?
I would fold a set but not a high flush there...
@@majorbob7211 I'm with you Bob, I would hate it and fold a set.
MajorBob arguably top set is a better hand to have than a middling flush. If MP1 and MP2 both have flushes then you’re in a decent spot. If one has a flush and one has a set/two pair you’re in an okay spot and if both have sets/two pair you’re in a great spot. Whereas if you have a flush and either has a better flush you’re drawing dead.
I never would have put him on an ace high flush. I mean, why shove with the nuts? It appeared to me he had two pair, a set, or maybe Ac and a pair.
But I'm not a great poker player, so wtf do I know?
moserneely on a 3 club board, there was a raise and a re-raise,
in a five way pot, there could be a lot of good hands, like sets, or in this case the Q T of clubs
villain made a great shove, chances are at least one of those raisers is actually interested in this pot
Vilain made stacks get in as fast as possible and i think he did well
@@darcylindzon I think a good player knows that other good players fold sets to his all-in. He was either a good player and perceived both of the other two as weaker players who would pay him with sets, or he was a weak player himself. If he was going for value against weaker flushes, he was targeting 7 possible combos of hands. It ended up being a great shove, but it was not a good shove. To get the value from sets and weaker flushes, if he calls here, he gives BB a chance to shove, as well as giving both a chance to get it all in at a later street if the turn is a brick for example. I am still learning the strategy of poker, but this is my current understanding.
It would have been difficult, but I would have folded here. Just too obvious you could have a flush, and so would be unlikely to fold, to even the most brain dead loose player. So hence they probably wouldn't be bluffing there. If you can afford to lose the chips, then don't fold, but it's risky, lol.
I think there were only two choices: 1) fold at the very begining, that is - postflop; 2) showe all-in - as happened in the game.
If I flop any flush, I'm not folding.. #donk rules
Hate how the hero always loses in these vids ;( so sad to see every time
yeah i just fold here and conserve my stack, wait for a better spot
If someone is plugging this in while playing it is cheating. That's why internet poker isn't poker
Fold, mp2 shoving here indicates he has the nuts and represents a bluff like a pair with two clubs an ace of clubs. This is negative value call as tons of hands can beat the hero kxof clubs and ax of clubs so fold in this spot
No way you can fold