I really love your videos. The production is great, the content is excellent and I especially appreciate the way you get straight to the topic at hand and present your material in a concise and effective way. Thank you!
@James Fondren It's one of those things where it sends a clear message to the in position player that you're not just going to let them run you over. The value of sending such a message is clear for all to see. Imagine it was a bully in real life who was picking fights with you and then, eventually, you punched him in the mouth. Even if he wins that fight, he's going to be less likely to pick on you in the future and he'll look for easier marks. Playing back at somebody from the blinds has a similar effect.
Really liked the psychology part. Ive always noticed that but it's been more prevalent online because the number is visible. However there is a psychological element to how much you leave behind as well. If you only have 500 and bet 400 vs 220 that also does something psychologically. Theres lots of different variables in this area and while i always take those elements into consideration i usually choose based on gut and flow.
Hey splitsuit! Today I was in a home game where i knew every player in the table. Since the game hadn't started yet I could seat anywhere. Then I started wondering if I prefered to have position vs fish or good players. What are your thoughts on this? Does it even matter?
My theory: Villain had Q 9 maybe suited. He bet a lot on the flop because he was attempting to charge people on a draw or just get rid of them. Hero not betting the turn gave him a free card to go for a full house. He might have called a turn bet. There was still some chance his opponent didn't have the flush and he still had the possibility of getting a full house. The river heart greatly reduced the chances his opponent didn't have a flush, so from his perspective two pair was an almost certain loser so he folded.
Hi James, what is the name of the apps/software for that table hand stimulation you're using. To assign position, hand, chips, stack size, pot...Thanks
Andy, a couple of points: If you're astute enough to identify that the pre flop limpers are being isolated by the raiser then your A10 is probably the best hand. But if suspect he's doing that you don't need a hand as strong as yours in this scenario. If you 3 bet you probably take it down preflop. But flat calling lets the raiser dictate the action, gives calling odds to the limpers and everyone has position on you - all of which are bad. I hate building pots for other people. Say that flop is rainbow and not hearts you'll be forced into folding, most likely the best hand, to ANY bet from ANYBODY.
Can't imagine what the passivish reg could have been playing other than a Q9 or med pocket pair e.g. 88 or worse that whiffed the flop but tried to steal. Would play the same "standard" call preflop... but the flop is a perfect opportunity to protect your donking range... donking here will help u get paid off huge when u catch sets and two pairs OOP. Your thoughts splitsuit?
Doesnt make sense that AA, KK, AQ would take that line preflop. As for suited hearts would bet the turn or call the river (or both). Maybe a really weak flush ... something like 52h or something of the sort.. even that is hard to imagine with the preflop and flop line.
Never underestimate live players' ability to do strange things. Trying to put people on tight ranges because of their "line" is a big mistake. And tons of players check a flush in position so they can "trap".
I've been watching James for 20+ years.I bought lots of his training materials they were all great without exception.. I went from a losing player to 14bb ph playing the highest stakes. Lots of decent players refuse to play with me. Thank you, James. I would have 3b b4 flop for 65 then chk raise all in on flop. I always ask: what do i need to be doing to win the most? in the hand I was ahead of both villains by 75% to 13% and 12%/ before and after flop when you add fold equity it becomes a no-brainer to go all in of flop
This video is quite sensational, 3betting pre flop, shoving on the flop... I would never shove on the flop (as there rlly woulnt be any fold equity) but considering the combos i guess it makes sense
Hey James,do you think after this cleverly sized river value bet/blocking bet,we can ever fold to a jam?A jam most of the times reps boats or better imo in such a spot.It may makes us look exploitable but how gto are the villains in 2/5 live so we can proffitably call a jam on the long run?
I think it’s interesting to also think about the way people treat physical stacks of chips into the bet sizing psychology. SplitSuit mentions some “key” pain point thresholds, but it doesn’t consider “going under” buy-in’s and 100BB. Since we can’t see the physical stack, it’s hard to know, but many players here could have a black, some green, and a full rack of red at the start of the hand. In choosing a bet size, is it not worthwhile to consider that the opponent may fold if his stack would fall underneath the $500 key size (rack of red) if he calls and loses? So in that exact river spot, maybe bets above $340 get more folds than $300-325 because that slightly smaller size will still leave opponent with 100BB if he calls and loses.
Nice video. One question about your suggestion of donking the turn.... What else are we leading the turn with, other than monsters? Seems like we could donk with flushes and 22, but what else would we donk with here? If I was the passive-reg, I think my instinct would be to fold to any donk bet after 2h comes out (assuming the blind hasn't been pretty aggressive historically).
I would also donk the turn with AhQ because if a h comes on the river I'm most likely not getting called, with KhQ because if a h comes on the river I can't bet because I'm most likely only going to get called by Ah, and also with all my full houses and trips with a h. So that makes a bunch of other hands.
I think we are only being called on the turn by flushes, the rare 99 full house, and quad 22. After I made up an optimistic check-raise range (4.6%), I see some logic in leading. I came up with 0.6% that would lose and only 0.3% that would beat us; the vast majority of the time they would simply fold (2h is probably the worst possible card for their range). So I can see an argument for betting here, but I can also see the argument for checking to trap or induce a bluff.
Before we get carried away crafting a precise turn donk range - what range does V likely have after XRing the flop? Of those hands, which does he likely fire the turn with vs check back out of fear? (if we need to add bluff combos, starting with JT and then 9x combos makes sense to me)
The optimistic/loose range for the passive villain, I gave above as 4.6%. But more realistically, I think he has 22, Q9s, AQo-KQo, KQs, KhJh, JTs, JTo, 87h, 76h, 1 combo of 99 (2.5%). If this was 1/3 rather than 2/5, I think I'd tighten the range further. Of those hands, I think he would bet the turn with 99, 22, KJh, 87h, 76h, and JhT ( which is 22% of the range) and check back the rest. By betting, I think we just make the JT fold.... I guess I'm thinking there isn't much difference in EV between the leading or checking the turn here.
You could be leading trying to rep hearts. Players do this all the time. As soon as the flush comes in after playing passively they fire on that card. So having it in this scenario is pretty solid I think
Think we are solving here for a spot that should never come up. Vs a Solid Reg he should be ISO - 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q8s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, A8o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo i think. So think only play is to 3bet. About the MAJOR NUMBERS do you have any more information about it? Some link i could look up. Cheers and love your videos :)
Split, I always love your analysis and your certainly a better player then me, but do you ever advocate for flatting pre? Seems like your first piece of advice is to three bet everything playable.
Thanks Peter! And for sure, there are plenty of solid spots for flatting. But unsurprisingly, a lot of the spots people send me are "help, my passivity got me into trouble!" and it just becomes an underlying theme.
Why was the check on the turn bad? I don't see what he would call that he wouldn't bet. Maybe KQ but that's about it. I do however think there are some weird hands which he could attempt to bluff with if we just check.
The $25 preflop raise is technically an isolation raise, not a 3bet. A 3bet is the first re-raise preflop, and since the Passivish-Reg only limped, there was no chance to 3bet. Does that make sense?
I think pot fraction breakpoints are way more relevant then the actual numbers. If you bet 45%-55% pot they will round it to 50% It's a very bad thing to do consistently against goo players if your all your bluffs are slightly too small and your value bets are slightly too big.
I don’t see why we think the Solid Reg would never fold to a flop checkraise from hero or why it would be so unprofitable. As it turns out he folded to a checkraise from the “passivish reg”.
I would start by saying that this hand is played like a "standard" hand, but there are a lot of things I think players should consider here and maybe start implementing different ideas when it comes to these types of hands (A10s, KQs, maybe even QJs). The first thing I would look at is the 3 point hand indicator. 1 point: Am I in position? 2 point: Do I have the lead? 3 point: How strong is my hand and how can I make some money by playing this hand? Do I even make profit by playing? Now the answer to the first question is easy: no. Well, that is not very good. Can I do something about it? Well probably not. I am in very bad position and my choices and flexibility when it comes to the flop/turn/river are very limited. Ok, it is not the worst thing in the world let us move to point 2. Do I have the lead? Well, no. There was a limp and an isolation that we believe seat 8 has been doing a lot. Ok. So am I really looking to play out of position and without the lead with 2 people? We can probably safely say that seat 5 always calls this bet and we will be seeing a flop. Again I stress out of position without the lead! And with 2 people in the pot. Not even heads up! Not something to write home about. Every hand, even aces would rather see the flop heads up. Because all of our hands miss roughly 66% of the time, we will be check folding here like a lot. But ok, so lets look at our hand. Point 3: our hand. Our hand looks very nice. A10s. Ace high, kind of connected and suited. Ok, so this is a playable hand. But how do we play it? Well, again going back to this we are out of position, without the lead, with 2 players in the pot and will check fold about 66% of the time. I don't know about you, but I don't feel like that is a money making spot for me. So how can we change it? We cant chance points 1 and 3 but point 2? Sure. And why not? If we are a solid player, our 3 bet range is likely going to be AQs+/99+. Maybe AJs, depending on the game. Ok, not a bad range. But why not make it a little bit wider? Why not throw A10s, A8s, KQs these kinds of hands? Especially if we are OOP. This not only makes it tricky when we 3 bet later, so our opponents cant just put us on a tight range, but also gives us opportunities to be more aggressive and win pots even without a flop. But what if we 3 bet and get 4 bet? That's fine, then we have an easy fold. Easy decision. Isn't that what poker is about? Making decisions easier? If I 3 bet to like 120$ here and get shoved on or raised to 380$, then I easily fold. That is ok. Way better then to call 25$ (a little more than 1/5 of the 120$) and check fold most flops. And what about when the flop comes A,6,7? K,10,5? So we have about 77$ in the pot, we probably cant fold top or middle pair (if we do then why are we calling?). So it looks like we will be facing an around 50$ Cbet. Ok, we call. But we are playing kind of scared. Does he have a set? 2 pair? Are we check folding the turn? Do we check raise bluff the turn because we don't know what to do? (BTW the investment before the turn is around 75$). We have to think here. Is this a spot where I would rather buy information for 120$ or be kind of not knowing for 75$? And that is not counting the turn bet and/or river bet. I just cant see myself making money in this spot. And the worst thing is that there are no easy decisions on most turns/rivers. And if he is a solid reg, well then my chances get even slimmer. Let us see what happens when we go for a 3 bet here. Seat 5 will probably fold. Unless he is set mining here when he limp calls a 3 bet with 66/77/88. If that is a case I would not classify that as a reg. If he managed to limp a premium hand, we will here about it. He will limp 4 bet and again an easy fold? Don't we all love easy decisions? We make them in life, why not make them in poker? Ok, so let us say we 3 bet here to 120$ and seat 5 folds. Now we discussed that we are buying information for this money and trying to see of the solids reg isolations is just an isolation or if he has a premium hand. We know what to do if he 4 bets. We fold. But what if he calls? Well then it is ok. He doesn't probably have AA/KK/QQ/AK. Well maybe AK. But our hand probably dominates his range. J10s, KJs all these hands are possibly in his range. Also with maybe pocket 99, JJ etc. Ok so we have the lead (Get the camera Mom!!!!) and we have a pretty good hand. Position sucks but that's life. So the flop is Qh9h2d. Well I don't know about you but that is a flop I like. Way better then Js8s4c. Ok so we have the lead heads up. We bet. There is around 242$ in the pot so maybe around 180$ seems good. If he folds? We won a pot with ace high. Not bad in my books. And if he calls ok, we have an over card, flush draw we can definitely play some turns. Most turns. If he raises? I would probably say ok, if he has a set cool, but the only set that makes sense is pocket 99. QQ I don't believe. He could maybe have KQ with the king of hearts and is trying to scare us. Or maybe JJ that he doesn't know what to do with. Well he has to check raise us all-in and I don't mind putting my money in with the nut flush draw and an over card. Not to mention maybe some backdoor straight outs. The overall point is that all of our decisions are made unbelievably easy if we play aggressively OOP and take the lead. And this flop is also where our decisions are made very easy. Easy decisions = easy money. If we look back at this flop I do not see an easy decision here. The solid reg Cbets almost pot. Ouch. Not a good price on that draw huh? Ok, well we have an over card so maybe we can justify calling with the implied odds that most 2 pairs and sets would pay of our flush. Do not agree with this, but hey, better then nothing. But when seat 5 check raises into 2 people, that is scary. Like I am going through a zombie apocalypse without coffee scary. What do we do? Not only can the solid reg have a hand, but we are not doing at all good vs seats 5 range. Limp call? Q9s, 22, 99,J10. All those hands are there. Well I don't know about you, but I don't like this. Sure we invested "only" 90$ by this point but it is not looking good. Like Trump winning the election not good. See the difference? We paid 90$ and we are scared, If he had paid 120$ we know exactly where we are and we know what we are doing. Here? What if I call and the turn is a 5 of clubs? 10 of spades? Do I check fold? Lead bluff? Check raise all-in bluff against an opponent who check raised into 2 people? Don't think that is profitable at all. Now of course I am happy that hero won some money and the hand turned into an OK hand when we hit the turn, but still. Sure we won money, but imagine if the turn was different. We lose 260$ dollars every time the turn isn't a heart. Probably. And even on an ace, I am not calling a pretty much pot size bet/all-in with seat 5 having a little more than 1 SPR. Another thing is what if he has a set? Well if it is the 2 of hearts, see you stack! So all the times we don't hit we lose 260$, when we hit, we probably win something though I don't know if he stacks of if he sees 3 to flush. Opponents aren't blind at the tables. And all the times he has a set and the board pairs with a heart we are probably losing all of our stack. Losing, losing, not winning the whole stack probably. Not a winning plan to me. In conclusion I am all for the fact that hero won this hand and that is awesome (hey who doesn't like money), but I believe hero got very lucky on the turn, it being a heart and his opponent not having a set. Overall I would rather like to see a different approach to this hand and these hands in general to get out of tricky situations and try to simplify the positon rather than to go into a passive check/call mode when we don't have really any information. Information = money in poker. I believe making decisions that allow us to gain information are more profitable than decisions that I think are more drawn to "we are guessing and don't know what to do in certain spots".
I get that in a passive game with a lot of fish there is very little downside with A10s. If this was a limped pot (4 limpers) then I would just easily call here. If I hit a flush draw I continue. With all those limpers it gives me great pot odds if one of them bet and others call. If I hit an ace and there is betting I easily fold. Top pair, pretty good kicker vs a bunch of players? Easy fold. The issue with this hand though Is that I believe aggressiveness makes us the most money. The problem with this is that we will fold all the time we don't hit anything. Lost 25$. If we hit middle pair or top pair, we kind of have to call (why do we call preflop, only to hit a flush?). So we might lose a lot more on those boards. And the biggest concern of all I have here is the lack of information. If my opponent limps, he can limp 95% of his range. That's not a small amount of cards. The solid reg isolates regulary, maybe 70% of hands when we include hands like 75s, T8s etc. And if I call from the big blind and the reg limp calls I have learned nothing about his hand. In poker I believe we take agrresion not to make money but to gain information, to narrow the ranges of our opponents. Now let us say you are a very smart player and you call my 3bet/4bet with AK. On this flop you are folding to a Cbet. On most flops you are. If an ac comes, surre, you win some money, but I don't usually stack of with top pair ok kicker. So again this play doesn't make you a heap of cash. 67% time you fold, sometimes you float and a small percentage of the time you make money. But again only on an ace. I am not giving you a dollar on a Ks9h5c board. I also have an issue with what you said. I don't want to scare him of with a big 4 bet. But hey if I can take all those blinds with ace high? Don't mind if I do. I hit a flush draw very very rarely and even when I hit the probability that a flush draw materializes and that the board doesn't pair and a 4 flush card doesn't come to chase my opponents away is about 1/100. So I think that doesn't happen often, And if I am playing A10s on just a flush alone I believe I am losing money. And one more thing if this was 400BB deep sure. It is different. But this is like 160BB so I am not sure I would play this thinking I am very deep.
Personally : 1. I don't like 3-betting preflop here as I think ATs play too well multi-way to use as a squeeze and too poorly heads-up against villains 3-bet calling range. Also, having to fold when we get 4-bet is disastrous. 2. I don't like leading flop as when we do that it's NEVER with a nutted hand, leaving us open to 3-bets. 3. Similarly, I don't like shoving to passive-regs bet as what does that achieve? We dominate most of their draws on this board so there's not really a need to fold out their equity. All we do is get crushed when they call with a monster, win the same value when they call with K/QXh and lose value when they fold. 4. We should shove river. That's the size we'd use with our bluffs, so we should do the same with our value.
I might be being results oriented, but I don't see why we put the strong reg on a strong range. Isoing from the cutoff he probably has 88+, any suited Ace, KJ+, KTs+, QJ, JTs. Also, he's going to c-bet most of his air on the flop. So I think there's a case for raising to 200 and planning to fold to a jam as we wouldn't be getting the right price against a jamming range.
I personally don't love a lead on the flop. If you incorporate a lead here, I think you'll find it way too hard to stay balanced. Your range when donk betting the flop will consist of a lot more draws than made hands. This means opponents can take advantage of your weaker range and raise. Ultimately, I think donk betting opens you up to potentially playing a huge pot out of position against 2 players. If you get raised after leading the flop, you're not loving life. Just my opinion. Would interested to hear thoughts.
I don't understand why you count combos when you're talking about bluffs vs value. The combos of bluffs will always be higher than the combos of value because of the obvious fact that all hands miss more than they hit. You always talk like 'there's only 3 combos of this set, mathematically he never has it because there's a million combos of bluffs' but that's just the nature of sets, they are a scarce resource but they're always played strongly. I understand the benefits of combo-based thinking in other aspects, but not this one. I'm also kind of surprised you strongly championed donk betting on two streets in this video. Were you trying to sell a course on donk bets when you made this video?
I agree!I see this in a lot of his videos,the villian has 5 million bluff combos and only a few value combos.Even on a flop of Q 7 2 rainbow we can find tons of bluff combos if we want,AKs,JTs,KJs,89s,65s,9Ts,34s,86s,even A7s,A2s,small pairs,total air. In most of his videos the V is a maniac betting all these combos and he advises to stack off a lot with mediocre hands,Why shove against bluffers,then you blow them off thier bluffs which is daft!And when they are not bluffing you are crushed. In the GTO,pio solver world his advice would be great but average guys are not playing as maniacal as this,the general pop are way way underbluffing
No point 3 betting from the blinds with mediocre hands,3 betting ATs with force A9-A2 to fold and better hands will call,KTo-Kxo will fold too.Better to 3bet a more polarised range when out of position I think hero played this well,no good going apeshit with a flush draw like some donk in a 20$ tourney against a "passive " guy that suddenly checked raised a flop.if you have him as passive then why suddenly have him as a mad bluffer maniac
I don’t like a preflop 3bet. You’d have to make it ~$105, and a solid reg (that isolated from the CO and is facing a 3bet from the BB-a position most decent hands flat) is only going to continue with decent pocket pairs and AX that has you crushed.
You do get the passive reg to fold though, I think a 3bet is okay. I just don’t like it with the solid reg, as you’re essentially hoping to take it down pre, or you need some serious help with the flop
Villain had Q9, it's the only hand that makes sense. And I don't agree with leading the flop here, or reraising on the flop, because if he happens to really have Q9 he shoves and you don't have the equity to call. I like donking the turn however, that makes much more sense.
@@davidmustaine997 the donk suggestion is terrible you want to check range on this turn and the sizing suggestion is even worst try to find bluff that you're leading obviously you can't because passivish has a lot of flush on this turn and that is why it's just bad to lead turn. As for sizing i mean common 320 really, even fish will consider it as a jam and psychology behind why x amount would be treated like x amount i mean really. If you wan't to win money at poker stop watching people who makes assumption on how other people think and start watching people who are talking about poker strategy as a whole my two cents
I really love your videos. The production is great, the content is excellent and I especially appreciate the way you get straight to the topic at hand and present your material in a concise and effective way. Thank you!
hero IS the passivish fishreg.
@James Fondren It's one of those things where it sends a clear message to the in position player that you're not just going to let them run you over. The value of sending such a message is clear for all to see. Imagine it was a bully in real life who was picking fights with you and then, eventually, you punched him in the mouth. Even if he wins that fight, he's going to be less likely to pick on you in the future and he'll look for easier marks. Playing back at somebody from the blinds has a similar effect.
@BrilliantBible7 what!?
I really enjoyed your analysis of major numbers. I've been looking for more of this kind of stuff to add to my game.
Ive watched all ur videos. glad ur putting more content. Please keep em coming.
Thanks John!
Really liked the psychology part. Ive always noticed that but it's been more prevalent online because the number is visible. However there is a psychological element to how much you leave behind as well. If you only have 500 and bet 400 vs 220 that also does something psychologically. Theres lots of different variables in this area and while i always take those elements into consideration i usually choose based on gut and flow.
Hey splitsuit! Today I was in a home game where i knew every player in the table. Since the game hadn't started yet I could seat anywhere. Then I started wondering if I prefered to have position vs fish or good players. What are your thoughts on this? Does it even matter?
With what hands!? do you balance the suggested leading lines
Hey James, why are you suggesting to donk after flop? Isn't that something that fishes do?
Really helpful, lot of information. Thanks!
Love it James
My theory: Villain had Q 9 maybe suited. He bet a lot on the flop because he was attempting to charge people on a draw or just get rid of them. Hero not betting the turn gave him a free card to go for a full house. He might have called a turn bet. There was still some chance his opponent didn't have the flush and he still had the possibility of getting a full house. The river heart greatly reduced the chances his opponent didn't have a flush, so from his perspective two pair was an almost certain loser so he folded.
What program are you using to display these hands? If you don't mind me asking
PT4 with a custom replayer. Live hands are converted to allow them to be imported into PT4
Hi James, what is the name of the apps/software for that table hand stimulation you're using. To assign position, hand, chips, stack size, pot...Thanks
Hey Steven. It's PokerTracker 4 with a custom replayer theme.
Andy, a couple of points: If you're astute enough to identify that the pre flop limpers are being isolated by the raiser then your A10 is probably the best hand. But if suspect he's doing that you don't need a hand as strong as yours in this scenario. If you 3 bet you probably take it down preflop. But flat calling lets the raiser dictate the action, gives calling odds to the limpers and everyone has position on you - all of which are bad. I hate building pots for other people. Say that flop is rainbow and not hearts you'll be forced into folding, most likely the best hand, to ANY bet from ANYBODY.
Love me some late night split vids babyyy!
Can't imagine what the passivish reg could have been playing other than a Q9 or med pocket pair e.g. 88 or worse that whiffed the flop but tried to steal. Would play the same "standard" call preflop... but the flop is a perfect opportunity to protect your donking range... donking here will help u get paid off huge when u catch sets and two pairs OOP. Your thoughts splitsuit?
Other than Q9, in order of most to least likely: AQ, suited (hearts) connectors, KK, AA.
Doesnt make sense that AA, KK, AQ would take that line preflop. As for suited hearts would bet the turn or call the river (or both). Maybe a really weak flush ... something like 52h or something of the sort.. even that is hard to imagine with the preflop and flop line.
Never underestimate live players' ability to do strange things. Trying to put people on tight ranges because of their "line" is a big mistake. And tons of players check a flush in position so they can "trap".
If u know a 2-5 game where AA or KK is played like this please let me know where that is... I would gladly move out there.
Twin River
I've been watching James for 20+ years.I bought lots of his training materials they were all great without exception.. I went from a losing player to 14bb ph playing the highest stakes. Lots of decent players refuse to play with me. Thank you, James. I would have 3b b4 flop for 65 then chk raise all in on flop. I always ask: what do i need to be doing to win the most? in the hand I was ahead of both villains by 75% to 13% and 12%/ before and after flop when you add fold equity it becomes a no-brainer to go all in of flop
This video is quite sensational, 3betting pre flop, shoving on the flop...
I would never shove on the flop (as there rlly woulnt be any fold equity) but considering the combos i guess it makes sense
Yea kinda situational
Amazing videos.
Good Video! What kind of Software do you use for this presentation? It looks very smart to me and I'm looking for something similar
Thanks Soren! PT4 with a custom replayer. Live hands are converted to allow them to be imported into PT4
James (SplitSuit) Oh okay! Thank you
Hey James,do you think after this cleverly sized river value bet/blocking bet,we can ever fold to a jam?A jam most of the times reps boats or better imo in such a spot.It may makes us look exploitable but how gto are the villains in 2/5 live so we can proffitably call a jam on the long run?
I think given the price, you just have to pay it off. It really doesn't take any combos of "f*** it" from V to make calling profitable.
I think it’s interesting to also think about the way people treat physical stacks of chips into the bet sizing psychology. SplitSuit mentions some “key” pain point thresholds, but it doesn’t consider “going under” buy-in’s and 100BB. Since we can’t see the physical stack, it’s hard to know, but many players here could have a black, some green, and a full rack of red at the start of the hand. In choosing a bet size, is it not worthwhile to consider that the opponent may fold if his stack would fall underneath the $500 key size (rack of red) if he calls and loses? So in that exact river spot, maybe bets above $340 get more folds than $300-325 because that slightly smaller size will still leave opponent with 100BB if he calls and loses.
Nice video. One question about your suggestion of donking the turn.... What else are we leading the turn with, other than monsters? Seems like we could donk with flushes and 22, but what else would we donk with here? If I was the passive-reg, I think my instinct would be to fold to any donk bet after 2h comes out (assuming the blind hasn't been pretty aggressive historically).
I would also donk the turn with AhQ because if a h comes on the river I'm most likely not getting called, with KhQ because if a h comes on the river I can't bet because I'm most likely only going to get called by Ah, and also with all my full houses and trips with a h. So that makes a bunch of other hands.
I think we are only being called on the turn by flushes, the rare 99 full house, and quad 22. After I made up an optimistic check-raise range (4.6%), I see some logic in leading. I came up with 0.6% that would lose and only 0.3% that would beat us; the vast majority of the time they would simply fold (2h is probably the worst possible card for their range). So I can see an argument for betting here, but I can also see the argument for checking to trap or induce a bluff.
Before we get carried away crafting a precise turn donk range - what range does V likely have after XRing the flop? Of those hands, which does he likely fire the turn with vs check back out of fear? (if we need to add bluff combos, starting with JT and then 9x combos makes sense to me)
The optimistic/loose range for the passive villain, I gave above as 4.6%. But more realistically, I think he has 22, Q9s, AQo-KQo, KQs, KhJh, JTs, JTo, 87h, 76h, 1 combo of 99 (2.5%). If this was 1/3 rather than 2/5, I think I'd tighten the range further. Of those hands, I think he would bet the turn with 99, 22, KJh, 87h, 76h, and JhT ( which is 22% of the range) and check back the rest. By betting, I think we just make the JT fold.... I guess I'm thinking there isn't much difference in EV between the leading or checking the turn here.
You could be leading trying to rep hearts. Players do this all the time. As soon as the flush comes in after playing passively they fire on that card. So having it in this scenario is pretty solid I think
Think we are solving here for a spot that should never come up. Vs a Solid Reg he should be ISO - 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q8s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, A8o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo i think. So think only play is to 3bet. About the MAJOR NUMBERS do you have any more information about it? Some link i could look up. Cheers and love your videos :)
Why is donking the flop better than check calling here?
I like how you nudge us to think out of the norm btw.
Another opinion is the hero just got the max from some combination of QXh. However a raise flop seems the play or a lead there.
I’ve been in this similar situation and I’d likely just fold. Sucks but the Solid Reg is too much to deal with.
would you lead as a default Doctor Swiney? Appreciate all your help brotha. You are taking me to the next level where I can profit at 1/2.
Today's lesson is titled "When slowplaying, expect to get less than max value"
Lol
Split, I always love your analysis and your certainly a better player then me, but do you ever advocate for flatting pre? Seems like your first piece of advice is to three bet everything playable.
Thanks Peter! And for sure, there are plenty of solid spots for flatting. But unsurprisingly, a lot of the spots people send me are "help, my passivity got me into trouble!" and it just becomes an underlying theme.
was it Andrew Neeme?)
Why was the check on the turn bad? I don't see what he would call that he wouldn't bet. Maybe KQ but that's about it. I do however think there are some weird hands which he could attempt to bluff with if we just check.
i think a lot of tournament players could play a lot more hands in cash game style its sooo innovative!
Question about terms: wouldn't the $25 be the threebet?
The $25 preflop raise is technically an isolation raise, not a 3bet. A 3bet is the first re-raise preflop, and since the Passivish-Reg only limped, there was no chance to 3bet. Does that make sense?
Wow, response from Caesar! I am trully honored.
I like to think I'm much nicer than Caesar =) Have a great week Titan!
And yes, that does make sense.
Hope to see you live one day sir. Before then, I'm sure I'll ask questions in other videos.
Andrew the Calling Station LUL
Postflop raise had me putting villain on the two red kings. He’s more likely to have Jh Th than a sticky Q at that point.
I think pot fraction breakpoints are way more relevant then the actual numbers.
If you bet 45%-55% pot they will round it to 50%
It's a very bad thing to do consistently against goo players if your all your bluffs are slightly too small and your value bets are slightly too big.
You're right, if he's calling 260 he's def calling 385
4:10 $348, leave yourself with about $150 looks like a bluff. Unless it’s live and they don’t notice how many chips you have then $388
I don’t see why we think the Solid Reg would never fold to a flop checkraise from hero or why it would be so unprofitable. As it turns out he folded to a checkraise from the “passivish reg”.
so, all in all, andrew is a calling station
I would start by saying that this hand is played like a "standard" hand, but there are a lot of things I think players should consider here and maybe start implementing different ideas when it comes to these types of hands (A10s, KQs, maybe even QJs). The first thing I would look at is the 3 point hand indicator. 1 point: Am I in position? 2 point: Do I have the lead? 3 point: How strong is my hand and how can I make some money by playing this hand? Do I even make profit by playing? Now the answer to the first question is easy: no. Well, that is not very good. Can I do something about it? Well probably not. I am in very bad position and my choices and flexibility when it comes to the flop/turn/river are very limited. Ok, it is not the worst thing in the world let us move to point 2. Do I have the lead? Well, no. There was a limp and an isolation that we believe seat 8 has been doing a lot. Ok. So am I really looking to play out of position and without the lead with 2 people? We can probably safely say that seat 5 always calls this bet and we will be seeing a flop. Again I stress out of position without the lead! And with 2 people in the pot. Not even heads up! Not something to write home about. Every hand, even aces would rather see the flop heads up. Because all of our hands miss roughly 66% of the time, we will be check folding here like a lot. But ok, so lets look at our hand. Point 3: our hand. Our hand looks very nice. A10s. Ace high, kind of connected and suited. Ok, so this is a playable hand. But how do we play it? Well, again going back to this we are out of position, without the lead, with 2 players in the pot and will check fold about 66% of the time. I don't know about you, but I don't feel like that is a money making spot for me. So how can we change it? We cant chance points 1 and 3 but point 2? Sure. And why not? If we are a solid player, our 3 bet range is likely going to be AQs+/99+. Maybe AJs, depending on the game. Ok, not a bad range. But why not make it a little bit wider? Why not throw A10s, A8s, KQs these kinds of hands? Especially if we are OOP. This not only makes it tricky when we 3 bet later, so our opponents cant just put us on a tight range, but also gives us opportunities to be more aggressive and win pots even without a flop. But what if we 3 bet and get 4 bet? That's fine, then we have an easy fold. Easy decision. Isn't that what poker is about? Making decisions easier? If I 3 bet to like 120$ here and get shoved on or raised to 380$, then I easily fold. That is ok. Way better then to call 25$ (a little more than 1/5 of the 120$) and check fold most flops. And what about when the flop comes A,6,7? K,10,5? So we have about 77$ in the pot, we probably cant fold top or middle pair (if we do then why are we calling?). So it looks like we will be facing an around 50$ Cbet. Ok, we call. But we are playing kind of scared. Does he have a set? 2 pair? Are we check folding the turn? Do we check raise bluff the turn because we don't know what to do? (BTW the investment before the turn is around 75$). We have to think here. Is this a spot where I would rather buy information for 120$ or be kind of not knowing for 75$? And that is not counting the turn bet and/or river bet. I just cant see myself making money in this spot. And the worst thing is that there are no easy decisions on most turns/rivers. And if he is a solid reg, well then my chances get even slimmer. Let us see what happens when we go for a 3 bet here. Seat 5 will probably fold. Unless he is set mining here when he limp calls a 3 bet with 66/77/88. If that is a case I would not classify that as a reg. If he managed to limp a premium hand, we will here about it. He will limp 4 bet and again an easy fold? Don't we all love easy decisions? We make them in life, why not make them in poker? Ok, so let us say we 3 bet here to 120$ and seat 5 folds. Now we discussed that we are buying information for this money and trying to see of the solids reg isolations is just an isolation or if he has a premium hand. We know what to do if he 4 bets. We fold. But what if he calls? Well then it is ok. He doesn't probably have AA/KK/QQ/AK. Well maybe AK. But our hand probably dominates his range. J10s, KJs all these hands are possibly in his range. Also with maybe pocket 99, JJ etc. Ok so we have the lead (Get the camera Mom!!!!) and we have a pretty good hand. Position sucks but that's life. So the flop is Qh9h2d. Well I don't know about you but that is a flop I like. Way better then Js8s4c. Ok so we have the lead heads up. We bet. There is around 242$ in the pot so maybe around 180$ seems good. If he folds? We won a pot with ace high. Not bad in my books. And if he calls ok, we have an over card, flush draw we can definitely play some turns. Most turns. If he raises? I would probably say ok, if he has a set cool, but the only set that makes sense is pocket 99. QQ I don't believe. He could maybe have KQ with the king of hearts and is trying to scare us. Or maybe JJ that he doesn't know what to do with. Well he has to check raise us all-in and I don't mind putting my money in with the nut flush draw and an over card. Not to mention maybe some backdoor straight outs. The overall point is that all of our decisions are made unbelievably easy if we play aggressively OOP and take the lead. And this flop is also where our decisions are made very easy. Easy decisions = easy money. If we look back at this flop I do not see an easy decision here. The solid reg Cbets almost pot. Ouch. Not a good price on that draw huh? Ok, well we have an over card so maybe we can justify calling with the implied odds that most 2 pairs and sets would pay of our flush. Do not agree with this, but hey, better then nothing. But when seat 5 check raises into 2 people, that is scary. Like I am going through a zombie apocalypse without coffee scary. What do we do? Not only can the solid reg have a hand, but we are not doing at all good vs seats 5 range. Limp call? Q9s, 22, 99,J10. All those hands are there. Well I don't know about you, but I don't like this. Sure we invested "only" 90$ by this point but it is not looking good. Like Trump winning the election not good. See the difference? We paid 90$ and we are scared, If he had paid 120$ we know exactly where we are and we know what we are doing. Here? What if I call and the turn is a 5 of clubs? 10 of spades? Do I check fold? Lead bluff? Check raise all-in bluff against an opponent who check raised into 2 people? Don't think that is profitable at all. Now of course I am happy that hero won some money and the hand turned into an OK hand when we hit the turn, but still. Sure we won money, but imagine if the turn was different. We lose 260$ dollars every time the turn isn't a heart. Probably. And even on an ace, I am not calling a pretty much pot size bet/all-in with seat 5 having a little more than 1 SPR. Another thing is what if he has a set? Well if it is the 2 of hearts, see you stack! So all the times we don't hit we lose 260$, when we hit, we probably win something though I don't know if he stacks of if he sees 3 to flush. Opponents aren't blind at the tables. And all the times he has a set and the board pairs with a heart we are probably losing all of our stack. Losing, losing, not winning the whole stack probably. Not a winning plan to me. In conclusion I am all for the fact that hero won this hand and that is awesome (hey who doesn't like money), but I believe hero got very lucky on the turn, it being a heart and his opponent not having a set. Overall I would rather like to see a different approach to this hand and these hands in general to get out of tricky situations and try to simplify the positon rather than to go into a passive check/call mode when we don't have really any information. Information = money in poker. I believe making decisions that allow us to gain information are more profitable than decisions that I think are more drawn to "we are guessing and don't know what to do in certain spots".
I get that in a passive game with a lot of fish there is very little downside with A10s. If this was a limped pot (4 limpers) then I would just easily call here. If I hit a flush draw I continue. With all those limpers it gives me great pot odds if one of them bet and others call. If I hit an ace and there is betting I easily fold. Top pair, pretty good kicker vs a bunch of players? Easy fold. The issue with this hand though Is that I believe aggressiveness makes us the most money. The problem with this is that we will fold all the time we don't hit anything. Lost 25$. If we hit middle pair or top pair, we kind of have to call (why do we call preflop, only to hit a flush?). So we might lose a lot more on those boards. And the biggest concern of all I have here is the lack of information. If my opponent limps, he can limp 95% of his range. That's not a small amount of cards. The solid reg isolates regulary, maybe 70% of hands when we include hands like 75s, T8s etc. And if I call from the big blind and the reg limp calls I have learned nothing about his hand. In poker I believe we take agrresion not to make money but to gain information, to narrow the ranges of our opponents. Now let us say you are a very smart player and you call my 3bet/4bet with AK. On this flop you are folding to a Cbet. On most flops you are. If an ac comes, surre, you win some money, but I don't usually stack of with top pair ok kicker. So again this play doesn't make you a heap of cash. 67% time you fold, sometimes you float and a small percentage of the time you make money. But again only on an ace. I am not giving you a dollar on a Ks9h5c board. I also have an issue with what you said. I don't want to scare him of with a big 4 bet. But hey if I can take all those blinds with ace high? Don't mind if I do. I hit a flush draw very very rarely and even when I hit the probability that a flush draw materializes and that the board doesn't pair and a 4 flush card doesn't come to chase my opponents away is about 1/100. So I think that doesn't happen often, And if I am playing A10s on just a flush alone I believe I am losing money. And one more thing if this was 400BB deep sure. It is different. But this is like 160BB so I am not sure I would play this thinking I am very deep.
Personally :
1. I don't like 3-betting preflop here as I think ATs play too well multi-way to use as a squeeze and too poorly heads-up against villains 3-bet calling range. Also, having to fold when we get 4-bet is disastrous.
2. I don't like leading flop as when we do that it's NEVER with a nutted hand, leaving us open to 3-bets.
3. Similarly, I don't like shoving to passive-regs bet as what does that achieve? We dominate most of their draws on this board so there's not really a need to fold out their equity. All we do is get crushed when they call with a monster, win the same value when they call with K/QXh and lose value when they fold.
4. We should shove river. That's the size we'd use with our bluffs, so we should do the same with our value.
Only hands that make sense for passiveReg are KJh and maybe JJh, TTh.
KK WITH KH 100000%
I always go on tilt when i fold and would be monster would of floped
The preflop call is fine, check raise the flop, barrel down any turn and river. Done.
I have
I might be being results oriented, but I don't see why we put the strong reg on a strong range. Isoing from the cutoff he probably has 88+, any suited Ace, KJ+, KTs+, QJ, JTs. Also, he's going to c-bet most of his air on the flop. So I think there's a case for raising to 200 and planning to fold to a jam as we wouldn't be getting the right price against a jamming range.
Why would you want to raise/fold pretty much the highest-equity hand within your range? If you XR/fold this hand, are you only continuing with 2pr+?
it's not just AT... it's ATs ;)
I'd bet 440-490 on the river
Why. At that point youre ai or not with that size unless youre trying to be tricky
I personally don't love a lead on the flop. If you incorporate a lead here, I think you'll find it way too hard to stay balanced. Your range when donk betting the flop will consist of a lot more draws than made hands. This means opponents can take advantage of your weaker range and raise.
Ultimately, I think donk betting opens you up to potentially playing a huge pot out of position against 2 players. If you get raised after leading the flop, you're not loving life.
Just my opinion. Would interested to hear thoughts.
James Day I think you're giving low stakes live pokers way too much credit for considering your range when you lead there at all.
"This means opponents can take advantage of your weaker range and raise." Assuming that's true, can they withstand a re-raise?
AT is a raise-fold imo
Make a video where you play online poker
I don't understand why you count combos when you're talking about bluffs vs value. The combos of bluffs will always be higher than the combos of value because of the obvious fact that all hands miss more than they hit. You always talk like 'there's only 3 combos of this set, mathematically he never has it because there's a million combos of bluffs' but that's just the nature of sets, they are a scarce resource but they're always played strongly.
I understand the benefits of combo-based thinking in other aspects, but not this one.
I'm also kind of surprised you strongly championed donk betting on two streets in this video. Were you trying to sell a course on donk bets when you made this video?
I agree!I see this in a lot of his videos,the villian has 5 million bluff combos and only a few value combos.Even on a flop of Q 7 2 rainbow we can find tons of bluff combos if we want,AKs,JTs,KJs,89s,65s,9Ts,34s,86s,even A7s,A2s,small pairs,total air.
In most of his videos the V is a maniac betting all these combos and he advises to stack off a lot with mediocre hands,Why shove against bluffers,then you blow them off thier bluffs which is daft!And when they are not bluffing you are crushed.
In the GTO,pio solver world his advice would be great but average guys are not playing as maniacal as this,the general pop are way way underbluffing
No point 3 betting from the blinds with mediocre hands,3 betting ATs with force A9-A2 to fold and better hands will call,KTo-Kxo will fold too.Better to 3bet a more polarised range when out of position
I think hero played this well,no good going apeshit with a flush draw like some donk in a 20$ tourney against a "passive " guy that suddenly checked raised a flop.if you have him as passive then why suddenly have him as a mad bluffer maniac
economics is the study of production, distribution and consumption of resources.
Psychology is pricing isn't really part of economics
Well, we are talking about V's consumption of our bet...
I don’t like a preflop 3bet. You’d have to make it ~$105, and a solid reg (that isolated from the CO and is facing a 3bet from the BB-a position most decent hands flat) is only going to continue with decent pocket pairs and AX that has you crushed.
You do get the passive reg to fold though, I think a 3bet is okay. I just don’t like it with the solid reg, as you’re essentially hoping to take it down pre, or you need some serious help with the flop
Villain had Q9, it's the only hand that makes sense. And I don't agree with leading the flop here, or reraising on the flop, because if he happens to really have Q9 he shoves and you don't have the equity to call. I like donking the turn however, that makes much more sense.
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2nd
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one of the worst hand analysis i've seen in a while
Why? What would you do different. It’s been 3yrs but still
@@davidmustaine997 the donk suggestion is terrible you want to check range on this turn and the sizing suggestion is even worst
try to find bluff that you're leading obviously you can't because passivish has a lot of flush on this turn and that is why it's just bad to lead turn. As for sizing i mean common 320 really, even fish will consider it as a jam and psychology behind why x amount would be treated like x amount i mean really. If you wan't to win money at poker stop watching people who makes assumption on how other people think and start watching people who are talking about poker strategy as a whole my two cents