Want to see more examples? This video goes through 6 preflop all-in examples and shows you how to calculate the EV in all of them: ruclips.net/video/LkOhbn81Q_o/видео.html
And always are there some fool with 0,1% of luck and river always be that one card for him. I can be pro but there is always some fool that calls you all in with 6 9 suitedand hits three of kind orsometh8ng better against your KK or AA
The maths in poker isn't that hard because more often than not you are dealing with the same scenarios over and over again and in most cases the math has been done for you elsewhere. Very rarely do you need to do the math at the table, most situations should be covered in your study away from the table, and when you are at the table it's more about feel based on the theory you've learned away from the table.
I installed 4 days ago and after a few tables I could tell something fishy was going on. People getting rivered all the time and beautiful hands (straights, flush, full house). Betting with a set was really scary.
@@9charlie84 First of all, I've been playing for years and never saw something about a badge. Second of all I've cashed over 60k and know some other good players that have cashed more than that so you probably just suck at the game
I understand the math. It’s the “over a period of time” thing that usually gets in the way of this mathematical approach. Many folks gone broke because they ran out of money before they ran out of time.
I’ve always started small, begin with 10$ betting tables and keep that money there slowly growing and occasionally take money off it if you need to buy something (assuming it’s reasonable). If your money collapses then you only have to spend 10$ to try and rebuild it
Without an understanding of Bankroll management you just wont make it, you can be the best player on the planet , the Lebron of poker , you will mizerably fail!
The tricky part here is that EV over millions of hands is tough for any human being to consistently stick with. When you factor in tilting and misreading ranges this equation becomes quite skewed especially for the average player. I agree with everything he said but keeping with these principles is extremely difficult when you take into all of the variables that the average player endures. When I say average player, I mean recreational players not trying to make a living, but trying to enjoy themselves while making some money at the same time. Just be aware of what kind of player you are before you apply these principles whole heartedly. Just my 2 cents...
True. That is reality. But with the knowledge of odds, we can instinctively understand correct plays and this gives us an edge over this that do not even consider these mathematical principles.
@@Drew_Guitarist Gday Drew, thanks very much for pointing that out. I'm rec player with ambitions of going pro in two years from now. At one stage I was thinking just get better at reading people's ranges, then I won't need to rely on EV calculations as I can simply choose correct plays. Yes, this will give us an edge! Cheers
If you practice this equation at home hundreds of times, I promise, you’ll be able to do it in seconds. Hardest part is memorizing equity for the hands you place them on during a live game. No calculators allowed at the table. I’m no Rainman, but I believe it’s possible to memorize equity if you’re tenacious enough.
There is one part of this that I am struggling with. I understand how this can be proven mathematically if we could be certain about our opponent's range. But how can we be certain that our assumption about his range isn't wrong? For example, what if A-J & K-Q wasn't truly in his range? Wouldn't this completely throw off our calculation? And what about someone who is trying to play like Phil Ivey & puts in a 5th raise preflop holding 5-2... How do we put him on a range? Do we just say that his range is any 2 cards?
This video demonstrates how sophisticated poker players play poker and why they win more often than amateurs. They are playing at a totally different level of complexity. It also explains why most of the pros take a long time to make a decision whether to call or fold. I never this type of calculus was going on in the background of most hands.
This is a great video, and does a wonderful job explaining this concept. At the end of the day though doesn’t this just come to put more money on good hands, and less money on bad hands?
Ok but how do you figure out what the win and loss percentage will be without a site like pokerstrategy? And how do you know which range of hands of our opponent to consider?
Elly Rust watching you oppenents play for a while will help you understand their ranges and tendencies. With practise you can become more educated on good (+ev) or bad (-ev) spots.
I read that most of the range vs range stats studying happens off-game, also in more common situations experienced players will simply "know" a play is good EV because he/she has run into it countless times
The biggest key to all of these strategies is sample size. If youre a rec that plays every once in a while variance can wreck using an ev strategy just because the number of hands can struggle to balance the beat in close ev spots.
I have been playing poker for only 4 days and I really love it, but got to admit this is scary. But your videos are such a great help! Thanks for all the free videos you are offering us.
If you calculate Rake, it might not be profitable to make that call. Also, in order to reduce variance, its better to let some equity goes. It might not seems optimal on the long run, but it stabilize your bankroll and your psychologic and this is +EV.
In my opinion the correct form is: EV_FOLD = -$1 EV_CALL = -$0.72 EV_CALL - EV_FOLD = +$0.28 It means for this specific situation for long term, if you call, you will lose $0.28 lesser. In the other word, you will lose in both cases but it's better to call to lose lesser.
If you're still confused, check out a statistics course. Concepts like EV and law of large numbers can be applied to a wide range of problems outside of games
Thanks for your videos James, these are very helpful! I have a comment about situations like these when it comes to tournament poker. I understand that most of these videos will suit cash games more than tournaments. If this situation happened early in a tournament is this still a call? Is it worth getting into a coin flip situation? For tournaments is it wrong that I think folding here is +EV? I just feel that calling and winning < calling and loosing thus busting out of a tournament that I could have gone deep in. Please share your thoughts on this!
You are very welcome Tim. A +EV situation is a +EV situation, regardless of whether it's in a cash game or MTT. That being said, in MTTs, SNGs, etc. you do need to consider the one-life-to-live mentality and gauge whether taking a thin + EV spot is best...or if your overall edge in the tournament is great enough where you should pass on a super thin + EV spot, even though it's technically + EV. That's the whole artform of tournament poker...balancing + EV plays with optimal plays given the exact parameters of that stage of a tournament
i know this is old but it's a great question so i wanted to contribute to the debate (even though im no expert). i think that in a tournament the villain would have a way smaller range because he's only got that one chance to win aswell. so unless he's a total maniac he'll probably only go all in with premium pairs
fanicia42 if that's the case (that the range is smaller), the video gives you the tools/formula to plug in that new range and get a correct EV. These videos are all about teaching a framework, and in this case you can just plug in your range assumptions into the math and get your exact answer :)
Good explanation. Now, couple this with PROPER BANKROLL SIZE for correct game, I'm the long run you should be a winner, break even at best. Want to get to +EV quicker as a beginner? Stop chasing runner runner IMMEDIATELY.
When do we need to calculate the actual EV? Would it be suitable to just use the equity to pot odds to calculate if its a positive EV call and act accordingly?
I want to ask you what do I have to do if I flop a top pair but the flop is draw heavy?When do I have to make a protection bet? What type of flop is good to make that move? I was thinking that a protecion bet on a draw heavy flop,if the opponent has some kind of projects , would be called because if we bet 80 % of the pot is a good call statistically with a project: ex.pot size 100 we bet 80 and the opponent calculates his flush draw EV = 0.35 * 260 - 0.65 * 80 = 91 - 52 = +39 .Can you give me hints about when and how to do a good protection bet? Waiting for your reply, I thanks you for all your videos and comments.
Awesome, really interesting video. Unfortunately, I don't understand how you decide your opponents range of hands or what "sevens plus" and "king queen plus" means. Could you explain that please?
Chris Cavani thanks Chris! 77+ means a player holds 77 and all pairs bigger (so 88, 99...KK,AA). And KQ+ means a player holds KQ and AQ. If you want to learn more about hand reading, SplitSuit is hosting a webinar on this exact topic soon that you'll want to checkout: www.splitsuit.com/hand-reading-webinar/
Thats so fucking interesting. I just started to try to learn about the Maths and Strategy behind poker. I would have never thought how complex this game actually is.
Nic Turuk in short. You’re going to guess. The longer you’re at the table and the longer you play with specific people you can put them on a range of hands, based on their actions, bets and their showdowns. Then you need to know your win % based on the range you put that person on.
No, this is not bs, this is how it's done. If you're playing with some crazy guy with crazy hands like that, you are probably playing with amateurs. It is really hard to play against amateur because the range they are playing is often really wide, and is because of that we have cases like the Hellmuth's "He called me with a Q 10, honey" meme. But as Chris said, if you are playing for a long time with this "funny fcker", you will be able to discover that he plays those hands and because of that, the range for this "funny fcker" will be really wide. But the math is the same. You don't need to believe me, or believe Chris Leung tho. If you need to hear the same thing we are saying, but from a pro, search for Negreanu's tips videos, he post it often.
great stuff ! what's the best ways to estimate an opponents range ? generally, will you play tighter against 'erratic' players, that could get lucky ie- don't have a well founded range..? how to play fish/players; suss them out over the long term ? thanks ! :))PO
when you say milllion hand s you say that for instance in this example if you have this hand ace queend with this all in raise...that hands might become different days and on diferrent tables right??
It's crazy how when I was in school math bored the absolute hell out of me until teachers started using cards and dice to explain it. I didn't care about the area under a curve, but I definitely cared about how likely it is I roll a 7 or how good K-K ran against A-Q.
Awesome graphics and explanation. I have an app in which you input the number of players on the hand, your cards and the table cards and then calculates two percentages; Win% and Equity%. What's the difference between Win% and Equity% ?
Simple and straight to the point! Thank you so much!! Great material! Two questions though: When you say that we have to practice EV calculations, do you mean in a session review or during the hand? It seems easier to select some hands and analyse them by EV perspective to see if we acted correctly, is that right? Also, if I'm in a hand and make decisions based on good pot odds, would it mean +EV decisions automatically?
you look ugly. but to answer your question if you study this stuff outside the session then youll find spots where that studying is applicable. nobody calculates their actual EV. you guesstimate based on opponents range, your hand, and the board
Brilliant video James. Thank you very much for imparting your wisdom. Just one question: Are there any particular ways you'd recommend practicing EV calculations?
In terms of practical training, is it your goal to memorize all the results of your equity calculation so it becomes instinctual when you're at the felt?
From what I understand, and I'm very new still studdying, is that you generalize your opponantes range and memorize the odds of a handful of generalized ranges and go from there. Please anyone correct me if I'm wrong. I have no clue what I'm doing haha. With experience you might note down a few hands and how they were played to later put them in a solver which might be helpful if you face the same situation again.
Do you have a video that takes into account the effect of rake on your EV and ranges you play? I play in some 5%-10% uncapped rake games. With the hand you showed with AQ, I would fold in a real game given the range you assigned the villain, due to the rake (47% chance win vs the range you assigned, and 45% pot odds). Although, there are other considerations like image where sometimes you have to give action to get action with your monsters.
+MOOOMIX we don't discuss rake a ton because it's so variable and usually not too huge of a factor. That being said, in a 5-10% UNCAPPED RAKE game the rake will bury you. If possible, avoid that game like the plague since it's not long term viable.
I have no idea (prevideo) of this EV. If I say I have an un-worded feel. But I can teach you about "pase" as you can guess, once someone starts one. They all follow it, leading to an all around bluff control
At 3:05 it sez that "in the long run" results will come back to expected value. This is sorta true. In the infinitely long run, actual value and expected value will meet an infinite number of times -- but they will also go infinitely far apart, guess what, an infinite number of times. What the video does not tell us is, how long is the long run? The answer is, it varies. You're welcome.
How accurate can I reasonably expect a hand range to be? And wouldn't wild players completely ruin EV since they don't have an easily predictable range?
So, when you are in the tricky range and can not calculate it at the table, wouldn't be folding be the correct play; thus limiting your played hands to those situations where you are pretty sure you have a positive EV?
@ThePokerBank But we are calculating these numbers in our head, and we are estimating the percentage change of winning [by estimating the range of hands our opponent will play], What if we are off by 3% in our calculation (which is not too far off for an estimate); now the EV is minus 17 cents (.45 x 13 = $5.88) - (.55 x 11 = $6.05). At the beginning of our poker playing career, can we really be expected to nail down [i.e. estimate our change of wining] the chance of winning with less than a 2% margin of error, so that we know when such a close bet is profitable (+EV)?
Isn't your position an important variable. Whose to say everyone else folds? Let's say another person with a similar range calls/raised doesnt that drastically reduce your ev?
In this case a similar range in what's basically a heads-up means that statistically both players will have the same chance of winning the pot for value. BUT bear in mind that there's nothing in the EV formula that takes into account the other player's hand/s. It's only calculating YOUR expected value based on YOUR hand. You need to look at other factors when deciding whether you want to call, fold or raise from there based on what other players are doing (like what position you're in)
It's actually a fair point and something that no poker video or book seems to cover, in close ev situations your probably ought to be folding because of the rake. I think this is the reason a lot of good players struggle when they play online or go to the casino after crushing a local non raked game. If you need 3 to 1 to call in a raked game and you are getting exactly 3 to 1 to call then you should fold because the rake makes it negative ev.
Hi James, do the 11$ don't matter in the formula? We can win 24 instead of 13$. That would make the EV 5,45$. Or does EV ignore the money we can win back ?
Only money you've previously put in the pot gets included in the $W. Money you have not previously put in (like the $11 in this example) would only get accounted for as risk and not as reward. I hope that helps!
How does this work when you’re not the final better in the round? Like you can’t tell how much you’ll win if there are more people left to bet after you?
Yes. Am example would be if you're big blind in a SnG, and the very first hand every single player goes all in. Even if you have pocket Aces, almost guaranteeing 2nd place and it's corresponding prize might be better than calling. One reason would be to limit variance, and another could be if the prizes are somewhat flat.
Great video. Only in this case "Rake"! So I would fold. I like your simple analogy that if it's a diffucult spot the +-EVs are marginal. Perhaps they can be avoided before becoming an expert.
Pot odds are just the price the pot is laying you right this moment...an EV formula would keep things like implied odds intact as well. And you can use the advanced EV formula for multi-street events and we made a video about it here: ruclips.net/video/ym1774AC5Ww/видео.html
ofcouse it would, but thats more of a matter of knowing your opponant, is he/she a very loose player who plays every hand? or would your opponant only do this with pocket aces? plus, how much is $30 to that player? it is a whole lot of difference when his stack is $600, when you more easily put $30 in the pot than whenever your stack is only$50. this is why there is no best strategy to poker, there is a matimathical side to poker but there is a psychological side as wel
I tell you what matters Experience and Instinct, Aggresive style, bluffs and good folds. We are not playing mathematicians at Poker.These equations only work over millions of hands played not tournament play
If you plan on playing and studying over the next year, could you set a reminder on your calendar to come back to this comment on August 23, 2019 and see if you still agree with what you wrote?
James (SplitSuit) yes sure I play all the time over the last 5 years. Over the course of a year I’m around £1500 up taking into account losses. You play with educational gambles and reads instinct and bluffs that is the game. If I was a geek mathematician like you I would win nothing. Some of the biggest hands I won are based on taking a chance when the stakes are very high. Your whole theory works on millions of hands played that it will balance out. Well let’s say you play just 50 hands then you are screwed. In that 50 hands it may well not balance out. I don’t know any top player that would start working out equations in their head. If you had all that going on it would throw you off your game. A lot of reading the game is reading people. It’s all about experience instinct and knowing when to fold. Honestly forget equations that’s just dumb.
Superutubeking wait wait so you telling EV is not necessary in poker? Probably pot odds the same yes? And the last I don’t think that you have to have good bankroll management. All what I need is to make right calls and bluffs and folds, like you interpreting this looks like you making your decision by how you feel about player and what cards is on deck. Man he’s explaining poker is long run game and only by luck you won’t go far.. so math is necessary to play pots where your EV+.
Want to see more examples? This video goes through 6 preflop all-in examples and shows you how to calculate the EV in all of them: ruclips.net/video/LkOhbn81Q_o/видео.html
This is by far the most clear and concise explanation of EV I've heard. Well done and thank you very much.
yessir
*all in*
Me- hold on let me whip out my calculator real quick
😂😂😂😂😂😂
Lol
It's actually legal to do that. And smart. But you won't do it because it's too funny 😅
Jeez finally somebody that can explain the fundamentals... thumbs up, faved, subbed....
Yeah, good luck getting out your computer during a live game. This is only for people who play online and, even then, it's kind of stupid.
David ummmm... no, just fucking no.... holy fuck, please don’t breed...
@@chrisgolden1162 No Chris! We want people like him at the poker table.
David whale
@@renoraider9817u not fooling anybody, your not a winning player. Get a life
The more I learn about this game the more I get confused.
@@AG-ur1lj ahh yes the classic, losing player comes to a comment section and pretends he's a winning player. Sad
U gotta play more instead of "learn" more
And always are there some fool with 0,1% of luck and river always be that one card for him. I can be pro but there is always some fool that calls you all in with 6 9 suitedand hits three of kind orsometh8ng better against your KK or AA
I thought people would just understand this before even learning poker. It's like just looking at a balance and telling if 1 side outweighs the other
😄
It wasn't til I started learning poker that I wished I'd listened to my maths teacher more.
Tony England lol no joke
The maths in poker isn't that hard because more often than not you are dealing with the same scenarios over and over again and in most cases the math has been done for you elsewhere. Very rarely do you need to do the math at the table, most situations should be covered in your study away from the table, and when you are at the table it's more about feel based on the theory you've learned away from the table.
+Tony England I see you replied to this, but your comment has disappeared, but I can read it from my email, do you still want a response?
24magiccarrot I would like to talk with you more I want some poker friends :)
@@24magiccarrot I realise this is a very late reply but yes, I'd love a response. I have no idea where my comment went!
"In the long run, the math will bring everything back to EV."
Never played on PokerStars, huh?
In pokerstars +ev also depends on if you have the bigger stack 😂
I installed 4 days ago and after a few tables I could tell something fishy was going on. People getting rivered all the time and beautiful hands (straights, flush, full house). Betting with a set was really scary.
When the Jokerstars RNG chip goes into Entertainment mode!
@@9charlie84 First of all, I've been playing for years and never saw something about a badge. Second of all I've cashed over 60k and know some other good players that have cashed more than that so you probably just suck at the game
cenifh are you sure that you didn’t play 6+ hold em?
I understand the math. It’s the “over a period of time” thing that usually gets in the way of this mathematical approach. Many folks gone broke because they ran out of money before they ran out of time.
I’ve always started small, begin with 10$ betting tables and keep that money there slowly growing and occasionally take money off it if you need to buy something (assuming it’s reasonable). If your money collapses then you only have to spend 10$ to try and rebuild it
This is why BRM (bankroll management) is key too =)
Without an understanding of Bankroll management you just wont make it, you can be the best player on the planet , the Lebron of poker , you will mizerably fail!
The tricky part here is that EV over millions of hands is tough for any human being to consistently stick with. When you factor in tilting and misreading ranges this equation becomes quite skewed especially for the average player. I agree with everything he said but keeping with these principles is extremely difficult when you take into all of the variables that the average player endures. When I say average player, I mean recreational players not trying to make a living, but trying to enjoy themselves while making some money at the same time. Just be aware of what kind of player you are before you apply these principles whole heartedly. Just my 2 cents...
True. That is reality. But with the knowledge of odds, we can instinctively understand correct plays and this gives us an edge over this that do not even consider these mathematical principles.
Yes. But this video makes a great explanation of what EV is in a single instance against random villain's range.
Which is exactly why if you can study and master this, you're gonna make some money
@@Drew_Guitarist Gday Drew, thanks very much for pointing that out. I'm rec player with ambitions of going pro in two years from now. At one stage I was thinking just get better at reading people's ranges, then I won't need to rely on EV calculations as I can simply choose correct plays. Yes, this will give us an edge! Cheers
If you practice this equation at home hundreds of times, I promise, you’ll be able to do it in seconds. Hardest part is memorizing equity for the hands you place them on during a live game. No calculators allowed at the table. I’m no Rainman, but I believe it’s possible to memorize equity if you’re tenacious enough.
Great explanation. im wondering what will be quick shortcuts that one can think on the spot situation. any tips?
This simplified EV for me so much, thank you
There is one part of this that I am struggling with. I understand how this can be proven mathematically if we could be certain about our opponent's range. But how can we be certain that our assumption about his range isn't wrong? For example, what if A-J & K-Q wasn't truly in his range? Wouldn't this completely throw off our calculation? And what about someone who is trying to play like Phil Ivey & puts in a 5th raise preflop holding 5-2... How do we put him on a range? Do we just say that his range is any 2 cards?
You need to assume opponent's range then calculate EV, that means you can't be certain what real EV is but it helps with decision-making
This video demonstrates how sophisticated poker players play poker and why they win more often than amateurs. They are playing at a totally different level of complexity. It also explains why most of the pros take a long time to make a decision whether to call or fold. I never this type of calculus was going on in the background of most hands.
This is a great video, and does a wonderful job explaining this concept. At the end of the day though doesn’t this just come to put more money on good hands, and less money on bad hands?
I have to say your videos are amazing and the information is gold. Thank you so much
Thanks Jack!
Made me not want to quit poker with yoir videos especially this one. Very clear and in depth and informative. Thank you.
Thanks Reborn!
Ok but how do you figure out what the win and loss percentage will be without a site like pokerstrategy? And how do you know which range of hands of our opponent to consider?
Elly Rust watching you oppenents play for a while will help you understand their ranges and tendencies. With practise you can become more educated on good (+ev) or bad (-ev) spots.
I read that most of the range vs range stats studying happens off-game, also in more common situations experienced players will simply "know" a play is good EV because he/she has run into it countless times
Finally a good poker channel to subscribe
James once again great video, find all your videos very informative and useful in my day to day grind keep up the good work .
Thanks Scottyt
The biggest key to all of these strategies is sample size. If youre a rec that plays every once in a while variance can wreck using an ev strategy just because the number of hands can struggle to balance the beat in close ev spots.
Regardless you wanna make the most optimal play though
Amazing video! Super clear, the graphics are simple and function! Easy to understand.
+JP Foster thanks JP!
"The math is simple", proceeds to use an equity calculator...
Great video that cleared up all my confusion. Thank you!
I have been playing poker for only 4 days and I really love it, but got to admit this is scary. But your videos are such a great help! Thanks for all the free videos you are offering us.
+Mell Snow you're very welcome Mell. Welcome to the wonderful world of poker!
dont start with this. theres a lot of basics you should learn first. just keep this in mind but dont actually worry about it yet
Care to share these first points of study?
Thanks
FK93209 starting hands,position,betting lines,board reading
If you calculate Rake, it might not be profitable to make that call.
Also, in order to reduce variance, its better to let some equity goes. It might not seems optimal on the long run, but it stabilize your bankroll and your psychologic and this is +EV.
I appreciated Eeore explaning this
In micro stakes cash games their range here would be AA, KK, AK, and AQ suited. Generally not much else when they open shove
Great video; thanks. I like the way you explain it while using the visuals.
+Cheryl Means thanks Cheryl!
learning statistics and probability outside school is just 10x better
In my opinion the correct form is:
EV_FOLD = -$1
EV_CALL = -$0.72
EV_CALL - EV_FOLD = +$0.28
It means for this specific situation for long term, if you call, you will lose $0.28 lesser.
In the other word, you will lose in both cases but it's better to call to lose lesser.
interesting
any good resources you know explaining this concept?
Playing it kinda fast as loose with the term “not too bad”....
Fold is -1 in the aq example.
You’ve already spent the money, it’s a sunk cost
If you're still confused, check out a statistics course. Concepts like EV and law of large numbers can be applied to a wide range of problems outside of games
Thank you, easy to understand for the layman.
Cheers!
Thanks for your videos James, these are very helpful! I have a comment about situations like these when it comes to tournament poker. I understand that most of these videos will suit cash games more than tournaments. If this situation happened early in a tournament is this still a call? Is it worth getting into a coin flip situation? For tournaments is it wrong that I think folding here is +EV? I just feel that calling and winning < calling and loosing thus busting out of a tournament that I could have gone deep in. Please share your thoughts on this!
You are very welcome Tim.
A +EV situation is a +EV situation, regardless of whether it's in a cash game or MTT. That being said, in MTTs, SNGs, etc. you do need to consider the one-life-to-live mentality and gauge whether taking a thin + EV spot is best...or if your overall edge in the tournament is great enough where you should pass on a super thin + EV spot, even though it's technically + EV. That's the whole artform of tournament poker...balancing + EV plays with optimal plays given the exact parameters of that stage of a tournament
James (SplitSuit) Very Well Put!! Thanks for your reply!!
Tim H Thanks, and you are very welcome
i know this is old but it's a great question so i wanted to contribute to the debate (even though im no expert).
i think that in a tournament the villain would have a way smaller range because he's only got that one chance to win aswell. so unless he's a total maniac he'll probably only go all in with premium pairs
fanicia42 if that's the case (that the range is smaller), the video gives you the tools/formula to plug in that new range and get a correct EV. These videos are all about teaching a framework, and in this case you can just plug in your range assumptions into the math and get your exact answer :)
Good explanation. Now, couple this with PROPER BANKROLL SIZE for correct game, I'm the long run you should be a winner, break even at best. Want to get to +EV quicker as a beginner? Stop chasing runner runner IMMEDIATELY.
When do we need to calculate the actual EV? Would it be suitable to just use the equity to pot odds to calculate if its a positive EV call and act accordingly?
I want to ask you what do I have to do if I flop a top pair but the flop is draw heavy?When do I have to make a protection bet? What type of flop is good to make that move? I was thinking that a protecion bet on a draw heavy flop,if the opponent has some kind of projects , would be called because if we bet 80 % of the pot is a good call statistically with a project: ex.pot size 100 we bet 80 and the opponent calculates his flush draw EV = 0.35 * 260 - 0.65 * 80 = 91 - 52 = +39 .Can you give me hints about when and how to do a good protection bet? Waiting for your reply, I thanks you for all your videos and comments.
Lastellaofficial You might want to watch this video first: ruclips.net/video/ZweW1bmiYLU/видео.html (since it dispels the focus on "protection bets")
Awesome, really interesting video. Unfortunately, I don't understand how you decide your opponents range of hands or what "sevens plus" and "king queen plus" means. Could you explain that please?
Chris Cavani thanks Chris! 77+ means a player holds 77 and all pairs bigger (so 88, 99...KK,AA). And KQ+ means a player holds KQ and AQ. If you want to learn more about hand reading, SplitSuit is hosting a webinar on this exact topic soon that you'll want to checkout: www.splitsuit.com/hand-reading-webinar/
Great, cheers!
How do you think of a person's ranges on the spot
What kind of sandwich they had at the table and how loosey goosey they were eating it. The more loosey goosey, the bigger the range.
U just see what hands they win with . Because a person who always wins win aces will always bluf a few times u just gotta catch em on the bluff lol
How is equity calculated?
Would you suggest using ‘universal’ ranges(GTO) to start.. adjusting based off of play/information found ..?
Thank you James. You are the greatest!👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏
Thats so fucking interesting. I just started to try to learn about the Maths and Strategy behind poker. I would have never thought how complex this game actually is.
Wow you are soooo good at explaining things. Thanks so much.
Equity 47% means will win or tie 47% of the time ,win rate will be around ~42% with pokerstove or ~44% with equilab. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
Maybe yes maybe no, because nome of the flops doesnt have tie
I have noticed occasionally I run well and win a lot but most often just get bored and frustrated with rubbish cards and missed flops.
Don't look at the cards after folding, helps a lot with tilt management
@@marialuiza1122 Yes,nothing worse than folding a gutshot and hitting it on the river hahaha.
Ur always Gunna fold and get amazing hands and wished u stayed in . Never worry about that
Fast forward 2022. Calculating EV is the least of concerns in playing poker.
What is of highest concern?
Realizing that this is what my teacher is talking about in my stats class right now
Same math, just different applications 👍
What about the rake? Wouldnt it give the hand -ev?
This is where you start! Nice video mate
+Beer-Grinder thanks!
How do you decide your opponent's range of hands you should use to calculate equity?
Nic Turuk in short. You’re going to guess. The longer you’re at the table and the longer you play with specific people you can put them on a range of hands, based on their actions, bets and their showdowns. Then you need to know your win % based on the range you put that person on.
No, this is not bs, this is how it's done. If you're playing with some crazy guy with crazy hands like that, you are probably playing with amateurs. It is really hard to play against amateur because the range they are playing is often really wide, and is because of that we have cases like the Hellmuth's "He called me with a Q 10, honey" meme. But as Chris said, if you are playing for a long time with this "funny fcker", you will be able to discover that he plays those hands and because of that, the range for this "funny fcker" will be really wide. But the math is the same.
You don't need to believe me, or believe Chris Leung tho. If you need to hear the same thing we are saying, but from a pro, search for Negreanu's tips videos, he post it often.
@Marek Mega that's why you always raise in preflop, keep away the limpers!
@@mathiashls link the video
Based on where that player is positioned at the table.
great stuff ! what's the best ways to estimate an opponents range ? generally, will you play tighter against 'erratic' players, that could get lucky ie- don't have a well founded range..?
how to play fish/players; suss them out over the long term ?
thanks ! :))PO
This is all fascinating but how do I find this specific "fish" at the table?
Very helpful. All your videos are great.
when you say milllion hand s you say that for instance in this example if you have this hand ace queend with this all in raise...that hands might become different days and on diferrent tables right??
Awesome explanation! Thanks a ton!
McGavel1 You're very welcome!
It's crazy how when I was in school math bored the absolute hell out of me until teachers started using cards and dice to explain it. I didn't care about the area under a curve, but I definitely cared about how likely it is I roll a 7 or how good K-K ran against A-Q.
Wow. This was explained so well. Thank you bro!
You're very welcome Kia!
Awesome graphics and explanation. I have an app in which you input the number of players on the hand, your cards and the table cards and then calculates two percentages; Win% and Equity%. What's the difference between Win% and Equity% ?
Simple and straight to the point! Thank you so much!! Great material!
Two questions though:
When you say that we have to practice EV calculations, do you mean in a session review or during the hand? It seems easier to select some hands and analyse them by EV perspective to see if we acted correctly, is that right?
Also, if I'm in a hand and make decisions based on good pot odds, would it mean +EV decisions automatically?
you look ugly. but to answer your question if you study this stuff outside the session then youll find spots where that studying is applicable. nobody calculates their actual EV. you guesstimate based on opponents range, your hand, and the board
@@jbaru1211 why'd u do him like that
Adding more _pairs_ to the shover's range _does not_ improve your +EV. However, adding unpaired hands does.
Is there any way to do this calculations quickly? In live poker I really don't know how can I calculate equity this quick
Brilliant video James. Thank you very much for imparting your wisdom. Just one question: Are there any particular ways you'd recommend practicing EV calculations?
For sure! Just play with this free spreadsheet for awhile: redchippoker.com/free-poker-ev-spreadsheet/
but you use equilab here, but that is not an option in live games. so how do you calculate the ev in live games?
Great explanation. Thank you so much!
In terms of practical training, is it your goal to memorize all the results of your equity calculation so it becomes instinctual when you're at the felt?
From what I understand, and I'm very new still studdying, is that you generalize your opponantes range and memorize the odds of a handful of generalized ranges and go from there. Please anyone correct me if I'm wrong. I have no clue what I'm doing haha.
With experience you might note down a few hands and how they were played to later put them in a solver which might be helpful if you face the same situation again.
Do you have a video that takes into account the effect of rake on your EV and ranges you play? I play in some 5%-10% uncapped rake games. With the hand you showed with AQ, I would fold in a real game given the range you assigned the villain, due to the rake (47% chance win vs the range you assigned, and 45% pot odds). Although, there are other considerations like image where sometimes you have to give action to get action with your monsters.
+MOOOMIX we don't discuss rake a ton because it's so variable and usually not too huge of a factor. That being said, in a 5-10% UNCAPPED RAKE game the rake will bury you. If possible, avoid that game like the plague since it's not long term viable.
I have no idea (prevideo) of this EV. If I say I have an un-worded feel. But I can teach you about "pase" as you can guess, once someone starts one. They all follow it, leading to an all around bluff control
At 3:05 it sez that "in the long run" results will come back to expected value. This is sorta true. In the infinitely long run, actual value and expected value will meet an infinite number of times -- but they will also go infinitely far apart, guess what, an infinite number of times.
What the video does not tell us is, how long is the long run? The answer is, it varies.
You're welcome.
How accurate can I reasonably expect a hand range to be?
And wouldn't wild players completely ruin EV since they don't have an easily predictable range?
Not in the long run. Money is won from weak players that play their weak hands too far. Be ready for some wild swings with wild players though.
I completely get it, but I have no idea how you could do this in your head to make decisions.
Practice makes perfect. Not a lot of people are naturally good at calculating things in their heads. Just keep practicing.
So, when you are in the tricky range and can not calculate it at the table, wouldn't be folding be the correct play; thus limiting your played hands to those situations where you are pretty sure you have a positive EV?
Folding would be the *safe* play, but it's easy to slide into being far too nitty.
@ThePokerBank But we are calculating these numbers in our head, and we are estimating the percentage change of winning [by estimating the range of hands our opponent will play], What if we are off by 3% in our calculation (which is not too far off for an estimate); now the EV is minus 17 cents (.45 x 13 = $5.88) - (.55 x 11 = $6.05). At the beginning of our poker playing career, can we really be expected to nail down [i.e. estimate our change of wining] the chance of winning with less than a 2% margin of error, so that we know when such a close bet is profitable (+EV)?
Isn't your position an important variable. Whose to say everyone else folds? Let's say another person with a similar range calls/raised doesnt that drastically reduce your ev?
Law of statistics and probability.
If they can win, they can loose too
In this example everyone else folded and the small blind shoved on the big blind, so he only has the small blind to worry about
In this case a similar range in what's basically a heads-up means that statistically both players will have the same chance of winning the pot for value. BUT bear in mind that there's nothing in the EV formula that takes into account the other player's hand/s. It's only calculating YOUR expected value based on YOUR hand. You need to look at other factors when deciding whether you want to call, fold or raise from there based on what other players are doing (like what position you're in)
Yeah absolutely. I’m probably playing the wrong way but I consider position just as important if not more then ranges and EV
But how do we pedict our opponent range accurately ..as a simply a slightest change can lead to negative ev from positive ev.
How do you calculate expected value of winning?? ie how does equilab calulate it
0.28$ ev but 0.5$ rake lol
Kieu Mi Phan avoid casinos. Play at home with friends
Kieu Mi Phan 1.2$ rake)
It's actually a fair point and something that no poker video or book seems to cover, in close ev situations your probably ought to be folding because of the rake.
I think this is the reason a lot of good players struggle when they play online or go to the casino after crushing a local non raked game. If you need 3 to 1 to call in a raked game and you are getting exactly 3 to 1 to call then you should fold because the rake makes it negative ev.
True in my casino game £24 pot would be £1.25 + £1 high hand jackpot.... £2.25 or 9.5% of the pot. 5% capped at 100 isn't too bad IMO.
@@24magiccarrot play tournaments :))
Hi James, do the 11$ don't matter in the formula? We can win 24 instead of 13$. That would make the EV 5,45$. Or does EV ignore the money we can win back ?
Only money you've previously put in the pot gets included in the $W. Money you have not previously put in (like the $11 in this example) would only get accounted for as risk and not as reward. I hope that helps!
How does this work when you’re not the final better in the round? Like you can’t tell how much you’ll win if there are more people left to bet after you?
Such an Insightful Video
How do you factor in the odds of a split pot? Or is that just ignored?
This is great for calling but is there one for betting?
Does it mean that I can use EV only playing Heads Up?
No because you'd still need to figure out your opponents range of hands not everyone plays the same way heads up.
Thank you, very well presented.
Awesome explanation! Thank You! :)
Cash table only? Tournament seems all about the sequence of events that lead to to this hand and announced coin toss
Even if the EV is positive, can the good play be to fold? IF you are big stacked or if you know you are better than other players at the table ?
Yes. Am example would be if you're big blind in a SnG, and the very first hand every single player goes all in. Even if you have pocket Aces, almost guaranteeing 2nd place and it's corresponding prize might be better than calling. One reason would be to limit variance, and another could be if the prizes are somewhat flat.
Great video. Only in this case "Rake"! So I would fold. I like your simple analogy that if it's a diffucult spot the +-EVs are marginal. Perhaps they can be avoided before becoming an expert.
I don't know the rake at other sites, but at 888.com even after rake this would still be a +0.08 EV play.
what the difference between this and pot odds?how do you account for future streets?every card thats revealed changes things, sometimes drastically
Pot odds are just the price the pot is laying you right this moment...an EV formula would keep things like implied odds intact as well. And you can use the advanced EV formula for multi-street events and we made a video about it here: ruclips.net/video/ym1774AC5Ww/видео.html
How much does a pot size matter here? Eg what if he shoved $30.. would that change our decision to call?
ofcouse it would, but thats more of a matter of knowing your opponant, is he/she a very loose player who plays every hand? or would your opponant only do this with pocket aces? plus, how much is $30 to that player? it is a whole lot of difference when his stack is $600, when you more easily put $30 in the pot than whenever your stack is only$50. this is why there is no best strategy to poker, there is a matimathical side to poker but there is a psychological side as wel
Thank you...ths was clear and helpful
Great video
tyty!
how do you simulate the hand? is it manual design or you using an app?
I tell you what matters Experience and Instinct, Aggresive style, bluffs and good folds. We are not playing mathematicians at Poker.These equations only work over millions of hands played not tournament play
If you plan on playing and studying over the next year, could you set a reminder on your calendar to come back to this comment on August 23, 2019 and see if you still agree with what you wrote?
James (SplitSuit) yes sure I play all the time over the last 5 years. Over the course of a year I’m around £1500 up taking into account losses. You play with educational gambles and reads instinct and bluffs that is the game.
If I was a geek mathematician like you I would win nothing.
Some of the biggest hands I won are based on taking a chance when the stakes are very high.
Your whole theory works on millions of hands played that it will balance out. Well let’s say you play just 50 hands then you are screwed. In that 50 hands it may well not balance out.
I don’t know any top player that would start working out equations in their head. If you had all that going on it would throw you off your game. A lot of reading the game is reading people. It’s all about experience instinct and knowing when to fold.
Honestly forget equations that’s just dumb.
See you at WSOP Supertubeking
Dosss no i play for fun , i am not a heavy gambler
But I win enough to enjoy the game
Superutubeking wait wait so you telling EV is not necessary in poker?
Probably pot odds the same yes?
And the last I don’t think that you have to have good bankroll management.
All what I need is to make right calls and bluffs and folds, like you interpreting this looks like you making your decision by how you feel about player and what cards is on deck.
Man he’s explaining poker is long run game and only by luck you won’t go far..
so math is necessary to play pots where your EV+.
Great job!
Thank you for simplifying EV
You're very welcome Thomas!
If we don’t have the strategy poker how I find the present win or lose ???
I'm looking for a way to do this that doesn't involve me pulling out a ev calculator on my phone. Is there a way that i can do this in my head?
Practice between sessions so that you can estimate better in real-time. There isn't really any other way ime.
Great video!
Amazing video!
Great video thanks! Subscribed
what about the other one: EV= POT (that includes your last call) - cost of the call?
it's much simpler
EV=24*W - 11=24*0.47-11=0.28
That formula doesn't correctly take into account the times you lose your call.