Elon Musk says Tesla Optimus robot should cost less than $25,000
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- Опубликовано: 14 май 2024
- Elon Musk says Tesla Optimus robot should cost less than $25,000
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Hi Sam..so good to see you are doing so well after your ankle surgery. Re:robots:I live alone and someday hope to get one of these robots to help me stay in my home when I get older. I have to say that this stuff blows my mind. Love your videos and your optimism. There’s too little of that around these days! Keep up the good work!😊
Before you get too excited, watch a bunch of dystopian videos about robots (Dust channel, for example) where the manufacturer controls the robot, or the robot develops independent thought, or so on. Careful what we wish for!
Basic payments will be inevitable as more ai and robots take over jobs. We are moving towards the Startrek future
Nope, this is just to boost tesla stock. Robot won't take over anytime soon. Remember Boston Dynamics?
@@benjaminpease5297 Governments won't always be controlled by humans if AI systems are much smarter than us which many experts believe they will be within 3-5 years. And even if humans are in charge, they will most likely be manipulated by AI entities in the shadows. Also new currency systems or hyperabundance of building innovations that transform how humans live, are likely within 5-20 years (depends on how exponential the technology gets, it's hard to predict). Like how we have roads but don't pay to drive on all roads, we could just make buildings at a 100x-1000x rate than normal and find new bioengineering ways (tree-houses+combined with other materials/futuristic materials) could enable some way to make it easier to live for free or 1000x cheaper houses.
We could print 3D organs already, I think there has to be some bio+architecture solution in the near future that makes it easy to build homes for anyone (if you just own the land idk). If AI really becomes smarter than all humans combined, it will come up with very creative solutions for us, that will transform every system that we have, in ways that are unrecognizable or unpredictable. Imagine like we travel back in time to the stone age and show them a cell phone, and all our technology...it will be like that (50% chance at least)
@@miti4045BDs robots are vastly inferior to Optimus.
@@miti4045 tell us you don’t know anything that’s going on in the artificial intelligence space without telling us you don’t know what’s going on
@markhartung1190 Your Startrek future may look like, shacks and food stamps for most unemployed workers, which are then replaced by robots. I am not sure, normal people can get more out of this, as large profitable robot producing companies can tip any legislation in their favor and extort countries against each other for lower regulation and taxition.
It's coming to the western world, already pretty well developed in the eastern world, too late to object. UBI is inevitable. Where we might have some input is deciding which jobs the robot workers are assigned to. Maybe start with the ones no one wants to do -- agriculture, hospitality, waste collection and management, nursing home staffing, mining. See Mike Rowe for additional ideas.
Received Fsd 12.3.2 a few hours ago! Trip to market was nearlyperfect. Go Tesla!
Musk has a different attitude to risk. As his SpaceX endeavours show - in particular with the giant Starship rocket which catastrophically performed on its first launch, was mostly a failure with its second launch and just recently the third launch was almost a complete success. Musk encourages failure - which he sees as essential to rapid progress. Given this - I expect Musk to introduce the robots very soon - in the full knowledge it will fail.....but improve rapidly.
Yep. Fear of failure is how not to improve rapidly. Though early adoption will be quite messy.
@@Me_Caveman Improve rapidly? Musk is 7 years behind schedule on Tesla FSD. And 5 years behind schedule on getting to Mars. He is full of it.
Failure gives us data for future success.
@@ChickensAndGardening Don't count your chickens before they hatch? FSD 2019 Hahahahahahah
109%
I would be willing to spend 25,000 on a robot that will do the vacuuming the dusting the washing the dishes and all the rest of the boring household chores that we have to do!
I am gonna gift it to my mother.
they would be market under the "honey do" brand name.
If it can do the garden, I'm first in line 😊
Seems like you want a robot to do the wife duties. ....hmmm what else could it do?
When the robots are making robots this world will get weird.
That's already happening on advanced CPU's
Rocket ship builders, and bottranauts next
The initial low volume maybe assembled with Optimus robots to improve the capabilities, however, Dedicated automatic equipment will be used as it is much faster, when used in high volume applications.
@@jjamespacbell all they got to do is build the parts and a humanoid or two could probably do the assembly anywhere like in a motel 6 room. the main advantage using any humanoid bots has, is that you can have a more distributed manufacturing setup where small batches of customized configurations can be built alongside routine production.
draconian world
People in the future will prefer robots like Optimus to the cars. Surely there will be possibility to buy software for the robot according to your requests. Do you need a cook? No problem. Do you wish to have a Michelin restaurant(s) cook? No problem. Do you need a bricklayer to build or reconstruct your house? No problem. Do you need an electrician? No problem. If you buy software for 3 proffessions, the 4th will be free of charge. Do not hesitate and buy all just NOW! 😀
There will be a marketplace for robot add ons ;-)
I predict self driving cars will get bored with going left, right, backwards, and forwards. They’ll briefly consider going up and down and when that doesn’t work, they’ll resort to lurking in parking garages. You’ll be able to make good money going and cheering them up
I expect we'll have to hire analysts for our AI cars and robots to save them from having hurt feelings.
You demented diode
(Prof Zachary Smith)
Stick to making OTHER predictions please
you mean flying cars
The Roadster will be able to go up and down a little 😉
Replacing humans in factories and service industry will be pretty significant, eventually. But printing an army of 1 million robotic soldiers is when the world really turns upside down.
God help us!
Puts on ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE REGULATORY AGENT HAT …… oh yeah AND glasses
The machine that builds the machine!
All basic income trials have been overwhelmingly positive in popularity and economic impact, only politics have been in the way. I think the Canadian one is the most recent. Basic income gives the security and opportunities to train for a new job without losing home or starving. It Actually lets people 'pull themselves up by their bootstraps'
You've got some great videos...
Optomus could be charge station attendends to enable autonomous car charges.
25k for bot, 10k for self walk/balance/ 5k for extended range, 5k for dishwashing app but only $35 per month for ars wiping app, if bots take most jobs who can buy the bots?
It would work for me cheers mate
Ina French maid uniform???
Yes it makes sense (UBI) because humans cannot compete with Ai machines therefore for us to go about our daily lives we will need a universal basic income.❤❤❤❤❤
Very interesting
Just proper "pick and place" capability if taken to perfection would revolutionize agriculture to name just one area of production.
Much more helpful there compared to car factories that are already largely automate...
Pretty scary. Thanks Sam, glad you're doing better > surgery! 👍
It sounds brilliant. Rather than charging a market price and competing with a swarm of robot manufacturers, Tesla takes full advantage of their own highly efficient and low cost manufacturing. Then Tesla sells the bots for a price just high enough to return a good margin, which completely undercuts all competitor prices, forcing the competitors to take a loss on every bot sold. 👍
I don't like UBI either but when AI and Bots take 70% of job types out, it is either UBI or revolution.
We’re smart enough to make it work in th south
@@sparkysho-ze7nmSmart enough and the government and corporations being willing are completely different things.
This is very interesting Sam !
sound a bit creepy but yeah Tesla will probably build this
Figure AI (Microsoft, OpenAI and Nvidia) is also on the table in a US context
epic!
Allowing our minds to be used for other creative purposes. One Love❤
Funny, how most people dream of UBI, when the robots are here. I guess, if there is ever any UBI, it will only cover basic needs and lock out these receivers from most of the technical advancements. The only way around this is, to tax productivty increases or to tax (increased) profits, which is totally contrary to the interest of any robot producer/user. And I am quite confident that robot producers will "win this discussion" to the detriment of the most people.
Since you asked, Sam ... I'm all in on Universal Basic Income ... for so many reasons. Here's one: When you lose a job, sometimes you're forced to find another right away, just to keep up with expenses ... and being in a rush won't always lead you to the best choice for a new job. Sure, lots of people will take advantage of the system and do no work at all; but guess what - they already do that! The lazy won't change, but most people will want to find meaningful work ... as long as meaningful work is available. And if meaningful work is not available? That probably means that robot workers are doing quite well, and wealth is still being created ... so ... we all have to work many fewer hours ... count me in!
With world wide deomgraphics collaspe, there will be a huge shortage of workers in less than 20 years. South Korea, China and Russia have the world's lowest birth rate at less than 1 child / adult female. There will be a huge need for Optimus in the very near future.
The future in technology is obviously inevitable.
The world cannot afford paying factory worker 100k per year for very long. Since workers and their union would never accept 70% salary cut ( understandably) and to stop riots and or another mass unrest and or revolutions then Robots are the answer. Robots are coming and coming soon and the world would benefit tremendously from this coming life changing Robots and in my opinion tesla will for sure lead this life changing phenomenon.
Depending upon your politics, people are more upset about losing certain jobs than others.. for example, losing union jobs upsets workers and their families, as does losing truck driving or mining jobs. In both cases, the issue is not automation(inevitable )but making sure that people have decent sources of income within a free society.
Lol. The issue isn’t paying factory workers too much. It’s the executives making many many many millions. Did you know that before computers and automation (all of which allow fewer workers, higher production, and more way profit) workers were paid a livable wage and could buy a house and a car while one person stayed home with kids. Back then the executive class didn’t make +100x their employees. Technology has massively increased the work output of any individual worker and all that additional profit has ONLY went to the bosses. That’s not enough for wealthy class because their greed still led them to reduce benefits and cut pay. They did increase the money they give to politicians and lobbyists tho. Hmm probably not related to the insulting stagnant min wage and the incredible disappearing taxes the wealthy (don’t) pay.
Do they make pleasure models? Come on, it's what we're all thinking.
Sad world
At least they could teach it to give you a hand job 😂
Didn’t cross my mind
$75 upgrade,maybe $100 with automatic oilers
Humans aren't greedy or deviant/s
I think that robotic aids for the elderly will become a necessity. I'd love a robot that keeps track of my pills, monitors my health 24 hr/day, helping me put on socks and shoes, throwing a microwave dinner in when asked, etc. ... all of this while working 24 hr/day to keep everything orderly and clean. I think that it would pay for itself in about 5 months, considering that many old folks facilities charge well north of $5000/month .
It’s that final 15% of completion of anything, especially new things, that is the hardest and takes exponential time.
Tesla, which I endorse, is no exception to this. FSD is proof enough. Longgggg-promised.
Zero chance one of those bots will soon (if ever) replace the dexterity of a human in a woodworking job like shaping guitar necks for Gibson.
But plenty of other already partly automated jobs (human pulls lever, grabs thing, repeat) are gonna vanish and for a while this may enable plant expansions and retention of skilled/knowledge-enabled workers for more intricate labor and/or bot oversight and management (moving people up the chain on ever-growing chains). But eventually it’s gonna be a big issue.
The bottom line is that China’s labor price is exponentially rising while geopolitical issues undermine manufacturing-investment confidence and the US needs to begin making all (or at least most of) its own stuff again; which seems hard to believe until you look at Chinese demographics; they simply don’t have the numbers to keep going.
I think most of us would love a smart AI humanoid robot. We'd have it doing all our work. It would end up carrying people around and hand feeding them grapes. Perhaps several could be joined together for a moving cabin that takes you to epic views, makes amazing food, plays beautiful music and keeps you in touch with your loved ones. A camping troop of robots. Hey, you 20,000 robots, restore this land and plant healthy food. I for one welcome our robot overlords.
Like FSD, this is still years away.
Send them to south Texas
MF border patrol
I'm okay with UBI. I think everyone who wants to work should be able to work also, so I am against having a minimum wage.
I like UBI if that also includes housing. Then the 90%+ of people who want to improve and move out have a chance before dying on the street. To reach "Star Trek" levels, a replicator is needed. Personally, I believe that a UBI would help because no one wants a 55-year-old Ph.D. with 30 years of experience.
hadnt seen the video of the robot getting out of a tesla,, that might be comical ,, seeing how a tesla can drive itself ,especially at the factory .
this will save companies millions of dollars over the long term you don't need to play these robots, they don't need super, they don't need annual leave or sick leave or anything like that think of how much you would save running a factory if you didn't have to pay workers. Plus you will have fewer accidents due to incompetent human error.
brilliance, help!
Stupid Optimus 25k, blue-collar Optimus 75K, Hollywood Optimus 150k
No jobs, no workers, no customers.
Musk has explained 10% use of the robots, not 100%. Then it would increase capabilites.
But 100% we are not needed, that is what the buzz is.
To get to 10% will maybe be in two years.
Then the capabilites really start to increase.
But outside construction, example, these bots can not do. And work on coastlines and offshore, they cannot do yet.
How about bots maintaining a solar pv set of arrays? Not yet.
Can they help clean up toxic waste sites? Not yet.
How about helping with maintaining aN orchard?
I think I’ve seen a movie about these robots and it didn’t end well for the humans
You know films aren’t real, right?
You know humour right?
Like I keep saying, the profit won't be in the robots, it will be in the required subscription.
He’s factoring the future cost of cars - half of what they are now.
I'm in a similar situation where should I look to increase income? Do you have any advice? What did you do? Thank you
I still say it's all for optics . There is absolutely no reason to have the bot walking around, which they don't do very efficiently, anyway . I'd like to see all industries and service jobs . Then no one has to work, or make an income.
Wow. Under $25,000. I'm going to have to get one to wash my dishes.
Well lots of room for improvement.
When Musk talks about min basic income, i think he realizes the alternative is to, give every robot that works a federal id and make it pay taxes.
Like it can work 24 hours a day, it will be recycled at 20 years and never collect any benefits, nor have unrepairable disabilities or dependents.
I would think that many parts of the Teslabot would be able to be made of recycled plastics for major cost and weight savings.
Pretty cool to get it to drive a tesla
Dream on Elon.
Robots making robots 😮
Presumably the price is to undercut the Chinese robot which quoted in January 2024 “Priced at $30,000, Kepler’s Forerunner is equipped with intelligent hands boasting 12 degrees of freedom, and its entire body possesses a total of 40 degrees of freedom”. Then there is the recently demonstration of the new robot called H1, created by the Chinese company Unitree, just claimed the humanoid robot speed record of 3.3 meters per second, or roughly 7.4 mph and can backflip. Basically, we are likely to see a rerun of the Tesla against BYD Ev war but this time with robots 🤖.
Tesla has no reason to try to even undercut China on a humanoid robot Chinese made humanoid robots will never be able to legally operate in the United States. It’ll be a national security issue. We’re not gonna have millions of humanoid robots from a communist country operating in the United States.
Degree's or freedom and walking speed mean little. How many useful tasks can it do? How does it learn to do new ones? The form factor is only a tiny tip of the iceberg before one has a useful robot.
@@TheEvilmooseofdoom watch the video that was released.
The cost will fall dramatically as it will be largely robots making robots with little himan work. You can use a lower level non automonous robots building a auitonomous humanoid robot. This underpins Tony Seba's prediction of super aboundance. Yes we will need standard income and housing for everyone, You choose to do meaningful work as humans will always want interaction to simulate their minds.
Following his latest quotes - it won't cost 25k at start)
I'm not sure why Sam would say Tesla wants to increase their margins by robot labor. As it is no secrets that China too develops robots to replace the labor force. So isn't this just a long game on the price war that's going on? So it will bring down the costs for cars too, not just keep them up for better margins. but it's a matter of some years I guess.
governments are working towards common
If Must says its going to be $25,000... By the time its a thing. The real cost will be $120,000.
Then you have to hope its built better than the cars hes making.
Initially, these bots will be a productivity enhancer for human workers in lieu of a direct replacement. If a human worker can direct 3 bots --- you get an exponential increase in productivity. That leads to real wealth creation and increase in living standards.
...maybe hopeful thinking?
Th age of abundance is surreal
Where is the real wealth creation and increase in standard of living when they put in smart scanners and smart payment points in stores and 1 human watches 8 customers and the machines cash out?
Who will buy cars without jobs ?
We work to live, not the other way around.
What a time to be unemployed!
Don't worry soon they won't need you to work and you won't be able to live because you won't have any money.
@@adus123 that's sounds like the conditions before the French revolution. Do you think they want to see their heads rolling?
@@RonnyBubke Your words not mine. What solution do you suggest? People need to work to earn a living if Robots start replacing Mundane jobs like low skilled jobs. What do you think is going to happen?
@@adus123 the products will be produced by the robots. Products equal money. There are two options. Either companies will be heavily taxed or companies belong to the state.
What I find incredibly stupid isa that these robots are built to take-on human shapes, if it's the same robot that should do manufacturing functions. It's like 1960's movies where aliens look like humans but with tinfoil wrapped around them. Robotics just don't work that way.....but old Hollywood "futuristic" movies does.
25k seems like a lot.
150 pounds of electronics, servos, frames, panels, and batteries. This stuff is in the 50-100 buck per pound range. That is a ballpark of $4500 to $9000 at scale.
It depends on the value it can add to a manufacturing system. If it can replace 3 or 4 people (working 24 hrs a day, 7 days a week) and does as good a job, it's paid for itself in a few months. Sorry, humans.
@ChickensAndGardening
Yeah... and it will happen quickly.
This is a reasonable price for factory robotics/CNC.
That seems like the best category for comparison.
Retail $25k and a $100 a month subscription...
Tesla will make so much mlney.
Imagine a robot that can search the internet on a particular subject, then start a RUclips channel and repeat what it just learned. 😮it would be amazing!
You don't need a robot for that. Just need AI. More software than hardware
…….. an it’s split personality play devils advocate
My house is going to be much cleaner! When will they be available at Best Buy?
The Butlerian Jihad is only a few decades away.
I don’t think so Sam, the robot for $20K US is a pipe dream. I think initial price will be closer to $80-100K.
Why? Tesla can make cars for under $35,000 and a robot is far smaller and simpler than a car….why would it cost more?
Sam can you do a deep dive on the actual robot factories? How many are built and how many per day being built. Not only Tesla's, others also. Im sure many countries are manufacturing these.
There are no robot factories.
No Sam, Tesla will have multiple flywheels or growth drivers for an amazing future. I count at least 5. What is your number?
Elon is incredible, but... He has two problems, Keeping a schedule and grossly underestimating retail price.
I have $1000 that says the robot costs six figures.
When we have flying cars and humans land on Mars, we might have a robot capable of doing something useful without posing too much headache.
I do think robots, will take over a great deal of work, and other AI systems will take over in areas like accounting, writing, research, even the arts. I expect to see movies produced almost entirely with AI systems in my lifetime Not to mention other forms of entertainment like games and music. This will require humans to adapt, and some form of basic income that reflects the overall wealth of humanity distributed to its members makes sense. Will it happen? My experience is that rich people don’t like to share.
I can see a Skynet and iRobot invasion in 10 years so scarey
The next gen local vehicle might be a rickshaw with an Optimus doing the pulling. Lol
Taking the labour out of traditional work and allowing all humans to work mainly with their brains and have more free time . I get that tesla is ahead but there’s nothing stopping other companies from making robots . And they will . Money is not distributed evenly anyways the system has some huge flaws and moral hazards. Time for a rewrite. What that looks like is have no idea.
These robots are swell… 👍
There will be a lot of competition for robots. Tesla probably won't even be the leaders.
Hope your foot is feeling better mate.
Why would you need a car if you do not have a job to drive too or no income to afford one, if you are replaced by a robot. This could be the end of the human race in the future when robots & ai take over.
I want to watch an Optimus robot learn yoga just by watching
"I'm extremely confident that Tesla will have level five next year, extremely confident, 100%"
with a 99% margin of error
upgrade your optimus battery box today!! install 6 ,4680's for $99.99!!
All well and good but if this thing replaces 50% of the jobs out there who is going to be able to afford one. There will need to be a heavy taxes on the companies using these in order to support all the unemployed people. Yes there will still be jobs about but it won't be for them people who do these sort of mundane jobs.
UBI and robot employee taxation will be required to prevent further extreme wealth inequality and solve human rights and quality of life. Otherwise it will become unstable, dystopian, with wars death and destruction, ecological collapse.
Asimov's robot laws must become law.
Robot complexity and cost can be compared to similar products:
$400 Phone - robot brains and eyes
$300-$600 Battery storage - 2 to 4 kwh
$? EV
$? Drones
The cost will fall fast with mass production, competition, robots making robots
Scary
1:27
Incidentally, I believe that was similar to SMR's model of the end price of optumus after this or next decade
Seems like a reasonable guess
Also, Farzad did some videos with robotics expert guy who, I think had a similar conclusion
The biggest cost would be the custom actuators I think
low audio levels
How ironic tesla product making electric cars for the auto industry, lol. You did it Mary.
Let's name 'em --- oh, I don't know... T-1's?
Tesla will like only lease Optimus to companies at half the cost of a human worker. It will take DoJo to program Optimus for its intended task.
So can anyone buy a robot and rent it out to a factory? Could be a new investment scam....um opportunity. The idea would be take the money you would have spent on collage and buy some robots, put them to work and collect their salary. This lowers capital investment for factories who don't have to buy the robots all at once.
The downside to robots is that they cannot recommend continuous improvements to the process - only humans can do that and that has been one of TESLAs biggest secrets - their HUMAN employees!!!
0:15 why is this surpricing he is removing the use of humans entriely replacing factory works to be fully AI based robots, it means if you are a factory working i would look for another job because many companies will buy these robots if they are a success.
24 hours a day, 7 days a week factory labour. What advantage will cheap labour countries have in manufacturing?
Elon Musk said.... And your own brain stops working it seems
Returning from funeral for a thought that died of loneliness ha
@@sparkysho-ze7nm billions of robots and we'll fly in rockets from city to city where we ride high speed autonomous vehicles in tunnels to the Hyperloop to Las Vegas...
Elon Musk's fantasy world is a fever dream on detox of too much ketamin.
Don't forget that this second industrial revolution with robots and AI will make a lot of people destitute and when Elon was questioned about this in an interview he stated that it is not his responsibility to solve this issue that lies with the government to solve. He is working very hard to create a very nearly complete labour market collapse without any though to any possible solution to putting millions of people out of work. Not a single thought of how these people will be supported are at the very least supported in finding work in other fields which there will be ever less of.
I suspect that’s why Viking mentioned UBI.