Flywrench hero arc made me so happy, it went from being the worst possible option to creating the most creative solutions for every level he was selected.
There is actually a way to determine the percentage of this. You would need to figure out which characters work for each level and multiply the fractions until the end. The odds are probably pretty low. I could calculate this if I really wanted to but I haven't even gotten 106% yet. There is probably someone willing to calculate this though
Actually chance of getting any character 3 times in a row is more like 0.51%, because doesn't metter who will roll first, but if you considered that you only count Runman, than it's 0.045% like you told in the video. Apart from that nice vid man!
Actually considering the fact that he completed 100 levels (and ~100 rolls) the odds are more like 40% Here's my maths, I hope it works out bc it's 04.30 and I'm tired. 1-0.0051=0.9949 (find probably of it not happening) 0.9949^100=0.60 (raise to the power of the rolls) 1-0.60=40=40% (find the probably of it happening)
@@theunholybanana4745 yea, if you consider that he did 100 tries, then your even more right. But as a little correction, there more like 98 rolls, bc he needs 3 rolls to be same, and 99 and 100 roll are already impossible to get 3 in a row, but still yea, everything else good i think
In another comment, I wrote that I made a computer simulation and reached the conclusion that there is a more than 90% chance of getting the same character 3 times in a row.
I’ve actually never played Super Meat Boy, but for some reason these videos have been so up my alley! They make me wanna play it more than anything else I’ve ever seen
for the moment at 10:00, Selection bias is important. You wouldve seen any streak of 3 characters as significant, so it only becomes 14*14, as the first could be anyone. This leaves you with an actual chance of 1/196. You wouldve had a 50/50 with same luck for a knife from cs cs go
Was looking for comment like that. Completely agree. Also funnily enough, there are exactly 196 possible 3-level streaks in light and dark challenges combined, so 3-hero-streak would happen 1 time on average if someone were to repeat such challenge. Meaning odds weren't quite lottery winning here. It was pretty likely to happen. (not guaranteed, but likely)
Congrats on beating it! Some levels were probably hell, but still, this shows off your skills! I recently got obsessed with this game, thanks to you! But again: Congratulations!
The final video :3 Time for another big chonky comment. 1:03 Ogmo actually can slide under the sawblade there. 3:02 I haven’t tested this level (it looks impossible with headcrab), but my friend’s spreadsheet also suggests it is impossible. So hopefully not a wasted Band-Aid! 7:53 ‘like headcrab’, poor fella, always so slandered! He can do this level: ruclips.net/video/vWZW4OYhDVs/видео.html 13:10 This was actually my friend’s method during his deathless attempts of dark rapture. Flywrench, whilst a bit tricky in some places, can really help cheese stuff. 15:36 HEADCRAB SLA- oh wait, no, you’re right… this level is actually notorious for being impossible with quite a few characters (which I would have seen you mention if I hadn’t paused just now). Fun fact, it is the SOLE level that alien hominid cannot do. Ogmo’s only two failures are this level, and 4-3x (the fast lava rising one). Ayyyy congrats on beating the challenge! I was gonna say near the end, surely Jill could outrun it, as headcrab is slower and can do so! XD Amazing series!
I could feel the pain you felt with that final level. Imagine knowing it is possible but it's very precise, that would put me on edge, also great video you get five stars!!!!!
10:00 Actually, that is the odds of rolling the same specific character three times in a row. So each character has those odds of being rolled three times in a row at any given moment. The odds of rolling a character (any character) three times in a row at a given moment is 1/196 or .51%
From the Forgotten Abyss and the Plains of Dark, the anti boy watches as yet another story concludes without even a mention of his accursed name. Tofu Boy, a character so stupid and tedious he could not have been added to the randomizer challenge, lay forgotten. As he should.
Watching this series made me want to play super meat boy, and I’m so glad I did it’s one of the best games I’ve played as of recently. Keep up the epic videos 👍
A good way to calculate the percentage chance of getting a run with no rerolls needed would be to figure out what levels are impossible with what characters. Like the speed block level has a roughly 35% chance of being beaten without a reroll, vut being 65% impossibe. Just do that for every level and calculate from there. Rather than just smashing your head into a wall over and over again.
I just wrote a computer program. 100 million parallel universes playing 100 levels with randomly chosen characters. In well over 90% of them, the same character is chosen 3 times in a row. This is nothing like unboxing a knife! If you can get the same character 17 times in a row, THEN you are ready to unbox a knife. Edit: My initial simulation had a bug and calculated a 75% chance.
9:50 I think the better probability to calculate here is "what are the odds you got any character three times in a row at least once during this run". That's 1-(1-(1/14)^3 * 14)^98 = 39% I can explain the math in more detail, but you can intuitively think of it like this: the odds of you not getting 3 of any character in a row for a given string of three levels in a row is very high, but the odds of that occuring for every one of the 98 sets of three levels in a row is not nearly as high Or, to use your CS:GO analogy, if you open one crate, the odds of you getting a knife-type is very low. But if you open 98 crates, the odds of you not getting a single knife-type item is much higher. Also, the odds of a getting a knife in a single attempt is roughly twice that of getting any SMB character three times in a row.
You are close, but not really correct - you are forgetting that probability of 3 equal characters in consecutive triplets is NOT independent. You can check it for 4 levels: your logic gives probability of 391/14^4 when the correct answer is 378/14^4. To get the correct value, we need to solve some recurrent equations: let P(n,1) be the probability of n levels without a triple and different characters in last 2 levels and P(n,2) the same but with equal characters in last 2 levels. Then P(2,1)=13/14 and P(2,2)=1/14. Those recursive equations hold: P(n+1,1)=13/14*(P(n,1)+P(n,2)) P(n+1,2)=1/14*P(n,1) After a lot of linear algebra we get a crazy precise result of P(n,1)=((13-14B)*A^(n-1)-(13-14A)*B^(n-1))/(14*(A-B)) P(n,2)=P(n,1)=((13-14B)*A^(n-2)-(13-14A)*B^(n-2))/(196*(A-B)), where A=(13+√221)/28 and B=(13-√221)/28. Precise probability of at least 1 triple in n levels is therefore 1-P(n,1)-P(n,2)=1-((14A+1)*(13-14B)*A^(n-2)-(14B+1)*(13-14A)*B^(n-2))/(196*(A-B)). B is actually almost 0 so for higher number of levels (5 or more is OK) the second part of the numerator is negligible and we can very precisely approximate the probability of at least 1 triple in n levels as 1-0,9997*0,9952167^(n-2). For 100 levels this gives ~37,5%. But do not forget that he has actually played 200 levels, so it should be ~61,3%. So it is more likely that you get at least 1 triple than not! 😀
I found these last night and watched them and couldn't find part 2 and then it was here today. I'm glad I got to watch all 3 videos shortly after eachother.
10:00 wrong. What you've calculated is a chance of rolling one and only one specific character 3 times in a row. But there are 14 and any character is viable for roll 1. In short you have 100% chance of rolling any character for roll 1 (duh) and about 0,5% chance for getting that character 2 more times in a row. It's a little more than 1 in 200 and with the amount of rolls you've done so far it's not much of a stretch.
The music sync of the balls at 4:36 is just immaculate, was that intentional? Anyways, i got my first ever controller a week ago and i REALLY got into super meat boy, which is why i got here, and you sir have my subscribe because that was awesome!
So, the best way to see if a 0 reroll is Theoretically possible first requires knowing how many characters can beat each level. If a level can be beaten by all 14 characters, then it is ignored in the equation. After finding that info out, multiply all the fractions together to get the final odds.
love your channel, voice overs, and everything else! quick piece of feedback i def felt a little icky about “more bullets than an american classroom” joke like i said, love content but that joke just felt a lil off to me
I want a version of this but with the other characters, like Pink Knight, Tim, Spelunky, Ninja (not Meat Ninja) and Gish. If you didn't know those that's because they are for console versions of the game. Like for Nintendo Switch. They are replacing: Naija, Josef, Headcrab, Captain Viridian and Steve. Some of them are really weird, because they don't REALLY replace other characters like Ninja. He's replacing Steve for 100 bandages, but I have no idea what his ability is. Really would appreciate it tho! ❤ Edit: On the console versions there's also no Runman
so when I made that comment about this but with super meat boy forever, I didnt know that every character in that game works the same with the exception of Tofu boy, and that video sounds like an april fools video now.
ok so, take the characters and pick out the ones that can beat the levels, we will use steve and meat boy, next we will divide 12 by 2 , which is 6 , we then square 6 by 120 and see the results. ( I might be totally wrong so take my words with a grain of salt.
I don't know why I find it funny that you call the white obstacle 'salt' in Rapture/Dark Rapture when those are clusters of maggots / maggot infested pits
@@CrisRipper Ahh ok got you. I didn't notice he referred to the maggots as salt maybe he just assumed it was the same type of object as in the salt factory without paying much attention or something lol. Honestly I didn't realize they were maggots either until you pointed it out in this comment haha
for you to get the top 7 best characters for each level (basically almost ensuring no reruns) meat boy, ogmo, the kid, jill, viridian, naija, and meat ninja, that would be a 1 in 1.049365e-108% chance of winning without any reruns
I know that super meat boy forever are just skins with no special habs like the first game but it would be fun make this challenge in the sequel (if tofu boy appears it would be kinda funny)
Flywrench hero arc made me so happy, it went from being the worst possible option to creating the most creative solutions for every level he was selected.
Yes he got his redemption arc, such a reliable guy
He really is, Flywrench makes part of the salt factory dark world levels easier
THATS MY BOY RIGHT THERE!
I almost inhaled my tea on your third spin with Runman. The washing machine with too much soap joke had me dead to rights
10:22
@@Jenb1317110:59
10:55
10:40
Lads you don’t need the time stamp three times
I love how at the beginning of this series flywrench was a dread to see but by the end he was a hero
24:53 "more bullets then an American classroom" lol
💀
NAHH
@@Visitantedo.youtube2friestube (your pfp looks like a 🍟 with the RUclips logo imprinted as the brand
The tragedy and CATHARSIS that I felt in that final level was unmatched. Thank you for making these challenge videos, they're great.
Mr. Iceberg!?!?!?
There is actually a way to determine the percentage of this. You would need to figure out which characters work for each level and multiply the fractions until the end. The odds are probably pretty low. I could calculate this if I really wanted to but I haven't even gotten 106% yet. There is probably someone willing to calculate this though
The madman went through hell and back with a wheel to get through the dark worlds. What a legend.
Actually chance of getting any character 3 times in a row is more like 0.51%, because doesn't metter who will roll first, but if you considered that you only count Runman, than it's 0.045% like you told in the video.
Apart from that nice vid man!
Actually considering the fact that he completed 100 levels (and ~100 rolls) the odds are more like 40%
Here's my maths, I hope it works out bc it's 04.30 and I'm tired.
1-0.0051=0.9949 (find probably of it not happening)
0.9949^100=0.60 (raise to the power of the rolls)
1-0.60=40=40% (find the probably of it happening)
@@theunholybanana4745 yea, if you consider that he did 100 tries, then your even more right. But as a little correction, there more like 98 rolls, bc he needs 3 rolls to be same, and 99 and 100 roll are already impossible to get 3 in a row, but still yea, everything else good i think
@@Happy_Flappy_ I added the 2 rerolls back tho so it goes back up to 100
In another comment, I wrote that I made a computer simulation and reached the conclusion that there is a more than 90% chance of getting the same character 3 times in a row.
@@Tumbolisu i think you mean that there is a more than 90% chance of NOT getting the same character 3 times in a row
Today we learnt that Flywrench is not as bad as one might think! His abilities just barely make him capable.
I’ve actually never played Super Meat Boy, but for some reason these videos have been so up my alley! They make me wanna play it more than anything else I’ve ever seen
for the moment at 10:00,
Selection bias is important. You wouldve seen any streak of 3 characters as significant, so it only becomes 14*14, as the first could be anyone. This leaves you with an actual chance of 1/196. You wouldve had a 50/50 with same luck for a knife from cs cs go
Was looking for comment like that. Completely agree.
Also funnily enough, there are exactly 196 possible 3-level streaks in light and dark challenges combined, so 3-hero-streak would happen 1 time on average if someone were to repeat such challenge.
Meaning odds weren't quite lottery winning here. It was pretty likely to happen. (not guaranteed, but likely)
Been loving the series! I especially like the pacing of your voice overs.
Congrats on beating it! Some levels were probably hell, but still, this shows off your skills! I recently got obsessed with this game, thanks to you! But again: Congratulations!
The final video :3 Time for another big chonky comment.
1:03 Ogmo actually can slide under the sawblade there.
3:02 I haven’t tested this level (it looks impossible with headcrab), but my friend’s spreadsheet also suggests it is impossible. So hopefully not a wasted Band-Aid!
7:53 ‘like headcrab’, poor fella, always so slandered! He can do this level: ruclips.net/video/vWZW4OYhDVs/видео.html
13:10 This was actually my friend’s method during his deathless attempts of dark rapture. Flywrench, whilst a bit tricky in some places, can really help cheese stuff.
15:36 HEADCRAB SLA- oh wait, no, you’re right… this level is actually notorious for being impossible with quite a few characters (which I would have seen you mention if I hadn’t paused just now). Fun fact, it is the SOLE level that alien hominid cannot do. Ogmo’s only two failures are this level, and 4-3x (the fast lava rising one).
Ayyyy congrats on beating the challenge! I was gonna say near the end, surely Jill could outrun it, as headcrab is slower and can do so! XD
Amazing series!
This video was a joy to watch and you are an absolute beast to complete this challenge. Great work and great video man.
I could feel the pain you felt with that final level. Imagine knowing it is possible but it's very precise, that would put me on edge, also great video you get five stars!!!!!
Hi, stats nerd here, the odds of rolling runman 3 times in a row is (1/14)^3 but the odds of rolling ANY character 3 times in a row is only (1/14)^2
Wow he went through both light and dark worlds with randomized characters
For some reason I love his voice and he gets pissed off or angry
10:00 Actually, that is the odds of rolling the same specific character three times in a row. So each character has those odds of being rolled three times in a row at any given moment. The odds of rolling a character (any character) three times in a row at a given moment is 1/196 or .51%
Yo, next time you should try doing a nuzlocke with the characters, it should be interesting
ALSO ITS OUT, YOU’RE SUCH A GOOD RUclipsR
I don't think so, given how Steve can cheese every level. Unless Steve was banned, or you started from a fresh file. Then it would be interesting
@@TheGamingLegendsOfficial true
@@cheezitlawdcan you provide a link? I don’t see it in this RUclipsrs channel, if so thanks
@@cheezitlawdwait is it the one by chonney24? If so then I think I found it
i keep rewatching the series, it's too good.
From the Forgotten Abyss and the Plains of Dark, the anti boy watches as yet another story concludes without even a mention of his accursed name.
Tofu Boy, a character so stupid and tedious he could not have been added to the randomizer challenge, lay forgotten. As he should.
Watching this series made me want to play super meat boy, and I’m so glad I did it’s one of the best games I’ve played as of recently. Keep up the epic videos 👍
Yeah I’m so happy this is continuing
10:55 that joke was vile 💀
A good way to calculate the percentage chance of getting a run with no rerolls needed would be to figure out what levels are impossible with what characters. Like the speed block level has a roughly 35% chance of being beaten without a reroll, vut being 65% impossibe. Just do that for every level and calculate from there. Rather than just smashing your head into a wall over and over again.
I was waiting for this to come out! Thank goodness it's uploaded!
Heck yes. This video is like, peak Flywrench redemption arc.
I cackled at the Portal joke
24:50 He just had to say that out of all things.💀
I just wrote a computer program. 100 million parallel universes playing 100 levels with randomly chosen characters. In well over 90% of them, the same character is chosen 3 times in a row. This is nothing like unboxing a knife! If you can get the same character 17 times in a row, THEN you are ready to unbox a knife.
Edit: My initial simulation had a bug and calculated a 75% chance.
"But with that probably being some form of child labor" LMFAO
It was funny watching plasmaman pretending that there is a level our lord and saviour flywrench couldn't beat
I can't wait to get this game on ps4 and the first video of this was very good
The too much soap joke make me accedentally swallow a lawnmower
Love your video format, great challenge idea and editing!
Might I suggest, a nuzlocke
God dam your underrated you should do more random stuff like this you do a great job
24:54 mans last words more bullets than in a classroom
9:50 I think the better probability to calculate here is "what are the odds you got any character three times in a row at least once during this run".
That's 1-(1-(1/14)^3 * 14)^98 = 39%
I can explain the math in more detail, but you can intuitively think of it like this: the odds of you not getting 3 of any character in a row for a given string of three levels in a row is very high, but the odds of that occuring for every one of the 98 sets of three levels in a row is not nearly as high
Or, to use your CS:GO analogy, if you open one crate, the odds of you getting a knife-type is very low. But if you open 98 crates, the odds of you not getting a single knife-type item is much higher. Also, the odds of a getting a knife in a single attempt is roughly twice that of getting any SMB character three times in a row.
You are close, but not really correct - you are forgetting that probability of 3 equal characters in consecutive triplets is NOT independent. You can check it for 4 levels: your logic gives probability of 391/14^4 when the correct answer is 378/14^4.
To get the correct value, we need to solve some recurrent equations: let P(n,1) be the probability of n levels without a triple and different characters in last 2 levels and P(n,2) the same but with equal characters in last 2 levels. Then P(2,1)=13/14 and P(2,2)=1/14. Those recursive equations hold:
P(n+1,1)=13/14*(P(n,1)+P(n,2))
P(n+1,2)=1/14*P(n,1)
After a lot of linear algebra we get a crazy precise result of
P(n,1)=((13-14B)*A^(n-1)-(13-14A)*B^(n-1))/(14*(A-B))
P(n,2)=P(n,1)=((13-14B)*A^(n-2)-(13-14A)*B^(n-2))/(196*(A-B)),
where A=(13+√221)/28 and B=(13-√221)/28.
Precise probability of at least 1 triple in n levels is therefore 1-P(n,1)-P(n,2)=1-((14A+1)*(13-14B)*A^(n-2)-(14B+1)*(13-14A)*B^(n-2))/(196*(A-B)). B is actually almost 0 so for higher number of levels (5 or more is OK) the second part of the numerator is negligible and we can very precisely approximate the probability of at least 1 triple in n levels as
1-0,9997*0,9952167^(n-2).
For 100 levels this gives ~37,5%. But do not forget that he has actually played 200 levels, so it should be ~61,3%. So it is more likely that you get at least 1 triple than not! 😀
I found these last night and watched them and couldn't find part 2 and then it was here today. I'm glad I got to watch all 3 videos shortly after eachother.
"More bullets than an American classroom" -Plasmaman123 2023 😂🤣
great video and i love the portal refrence as portal is one of my favourite game
yeaaa a sequel :D
and i was cheering for you to win the level and congrats you did a great job in the levels:D
15:20 the most intense part of this video
10:00 wrong. What you've calculated is a chance of rolling one and only one specific character 3 times in a row. But there are 14 and any character is viable for roll 1. In short you have 100% chance of rolling any character for roll 1 (duh) and about 0,5% chance for getting that character 2 more times in a row. It's a little more than 1 in 200 and with the amount of rolls you've done so far it's not much of a stretch.
24:50 thats crazy 🤣🤣
I wish you would show full replays, it's interesting to see how many made it just how far
YEAAHHH, Keep it up my man!
I love how the thumbnail shows meat boy getting more bandages every time, which kinda represents the suffering of plasma
15:39 i actually completed this level with naija, so its possible
i was looking foward to this one.
gonna wait for you to beat a sequel of the meat boy with this challenge :D
24:55 in this level, if you go to left and come close to the wall, when the saw blades starts to rise, they don't hurt you
After watching all 3 videos I finally will give you the sub you got my respect my friend! also greetings from germany ;)
YESSSS, I HAVE BEEN WAITING FOR THIS
Great video, I think the kid is the best character personally.
this was very funny! Love this.
"More bullets were flying around this level than an american classroom"💀
The music sync of the balls at 4:36 is just immaculate, was that intentional?
Anyways, i got my first ever controller a week ago and i REALLY got into super meat boy, which is why i got here, and you sir have my subscribe because that was awesome!
So, the best way to see if a 0 reroll is Theoretically possible first requires knowing how many characters can beat each level. If a level can be beaten by all 14 characters, then it is ignored in the equation. After finding that info out, multiply all the fractions together to get the final odds.
holy shit good job this is crazy how you did it
I like how in the thumbnails each time you go farther into the harder levels he more mutilated meat boy looks.
Nice that you completed the challenge! Now do Super Meat Boy Forever (The Sequel) :)
for level 5 in rapture you could probably jump between the saws at the bottom with a few characters, would be insanely difficult though
my fav series
You should do this but without randomized characters, you should do every single world without sprinting
24:53 more bullets than what!??!?
I love this guy I can't believe he does this shit
why not include characters unlocked through codes such as ball of goo?
Cant wait for tofu boy! im pretty sure someone made a list of all possible levels with him
13:22 bro really got doofenshmirtz voice...
love your channel, voice overs, and everything else! quick piece of feedback i def felt a little icky about “more bullets than an american classroom” joke like i said, love content but that joke just felt a lil off to me
Error: In the rapture, he called the tsunami of maggots a tsunami of salt
you can do cotton alley and the end by using the level editor (and I think you can also do warp zones)
Yes yes yes!
Ngl Flywrench is better than Head Crab in like 10 ways
I want a version of this but with the other characters, like Pink Knight, Tim, Spelunky, Ninja (not Meat Ninja) and Gish. If you didn't know those that's because they are for console versions of the game. Like for Nintendo Switch. They are replacing: Naija, Josef, Headcrab, Captain Viridian and Steve. Some of them are really weird, because they don't REALLY replace other characters like Ninja. He's replacing Steve for 100 bandages, but I have no idea what his ability is. Really would appreciate it tho! ❤
Edit: On the console versions there's also no Runman
It's not "newer" versions but instead console versions, Xbox 360 was the first version to release and had those characters
You Ware in 20 days ago 97 subs and now you are 3k subs wow keep the challenge going on you will get the popular chanel you are looking for😊
Naija can do 5-5x! Your channel its so good :)
really great video!
this is sick man !
24:50 bro😭💀🔥🔥💯💯🙏🙏
So near the end, with Tofu Boy, why wasn't him included in the run with random characters?
Its impossible to complete 90% of the levels as him.
40 levels are possible,out of like 300. This would add a shitload more rng
Tofu boy is practically designed to make levels impossible, this challenge would be over the second you rolled him
Tofu Boy is TRASH.
@@pineappleudh6561 not exaclty.if you were on one of the 40 levels possible with meatboy then maybe but otherwise,yeah instant gameover
Ah yes portal references my favourite
Awesome, now do tofu boy🤓
The 3rd level in rapture dark world was stupid hard for me. Somehow flywrench was the best option for me. It only took me 45 minutes to beat it
so when I made that comment about this but with super meat boy forever, I didnt know that every character in that game works the same with the exception of Tofu boy, and that video sounds like an april fools video now.
23:18 that’s not salt that’s maggots
Yeah I would like extra maggots on my fries mkay?
flywrench redemption arc
Actually with 5-5x you could’ve beaten it with Josef, but you’d have to go through the walls by using the disappearing and reappearing blocks to do it
24:51 nahhh bro really said that?💀
ok so, take the characters and pick out the ones that can beat the levels, we will use steve and meat boy, next we will divide 12 by 2 , which is 6 , we then square 6 by 120 and see the results. ( I might be totally wrong so take my words with a grain of salt.
I don't know why I find it funny that you call the white obstacle 'salt' in Rapture/Dark Rapture when those are clusters of maggots / maggot infested pits
Actually, in the salt factory, it is salt and you can see it being manufactured. The cluster of maggots appears later in the game.
@@NineTailedNaruto98 I know it is salt in the Salt Factory, I was talking specifically for the maggots in Rapture
@@CrisRipper Ahh ok got you. I didn't notice he referred to the maggots as salt maybe he just assumed it was the same type of object as in the salt factory without paying much attention or something lol. Honestly I didn't realize they were maggots either until you pointed it out in this comment haha
24:50 i didnt expected that
for you to get the top 7 best characters for each level (basically almost ensuring no reruns) meat boy, ogmo, the kid, jill, viridian, naija, and meat ninja, that would be a 1 in 1.049365e-108% chance of winning without any reruns
Im so happy this series is continuing! I love Super Meat Boy and wanted to see if a challenge like this is even possible! 😁
Next video: can you get all deathless achievements with randomized characters ?
14:54 wall jumps
55mins since it was uploaded and im watching it
I know that super meat boy forever are just skins with no special habs like the first game but it would be fun make this challenge in the sequel (if tofu boy appears it would be kinda funny)