Game changers in Ukraine - Evaluating ATACMS, Lancet & systems that changed the war (or didn't)
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- Опубликовано: 7 июн 2024
- Many weapon systems sent to Ukraine or deployed by Russia have been characterised by at least some commentators as potential "game changers."
From Javelin to Lancet and the Leopard 2, many new systems have been introduced and/or scaled up in use over the course of the war, and some have entered in dramatic fashion (as with the recent ATACMS strikes).
In this episode I review a sample of "game changer" systems, discuss how we might evaluate whether or not a system deserves the title, and figure out what each did, or didn't, do to change the war in Ukraine.
Patreon:
/ perunau
Caveats & Comments:
Correction relating to the stated number of ATGM launchers and missiles in UA in 2022 - the 950 launchers are for relatively modern, long range systems. They exclude thousands of NLAWs, 9K111 and 9K115-2 missiles in UA hands.
All normal caveats and comments apply.
Relevant Reading/sourcing
Credit to all featured twitter post creators including but not limited to - @COUPSURE, @Tatarigami_UA, and @Rebel44CZ
Meatgrinder: Russian Tactics in the Second Year of Its Invasion of Ukraine - Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds
static.rusi.org/403-SR-Russia...
Rusia’s Artillery War in Ukraine: Challenges and Innovations - Sam Cranny-Evans:
rusi.org/explore-our-research...
Stormbreak: Fighting Through Russian Defences in Ukraine’s 2023 Offensive - Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds
static.rusi.org/Stormbreak-Sp...
Preliminary Lessons in Conventional Warfighting from Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: February-July 2022 -Mykhaylo Zabrodskyi, Jack Watling, Oleksandr V Danylyuk and Nick Reynolds
static.rusi.org/359-SR-Ukrain...
Reporting on Javelin April 2022
www.wsj.com/articles/ukrainia...
Featured Warzone article featuring revetments
www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone...
Lancet reported on
www.reuters.com/world/europe/...
www.rferl.org/a/lancet-drones...
The Airbase strike
www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe...
www.businessinsider.com/video...
/ 1711835637211607527
Foreign components in Lancet
www.pravda.com.ua/eng/article...
And the successor:
en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_...
2023 Javelin reporting
www.washingtonpost.com/world/...
Various articles on hyped systems
www.wsj.com/articles/himars-t...
www.reuters.com/world/europe/...
en.topwar.ru/226738-pressa-ss...
kyivindependent.com/ukraine-r...
www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe...
www.forbes.com/sites/davidham...
www.newsweek.com/how-american...
Featured images of artillery cages
www.rferl.org/a/makeshift-arm...
/ ukrainian_m109_with_an...
CSIS on Javelin
www.csis.org/analysis/will-un...
www.csis.org/analysis/saint-j...
Timestamps
00:00:00 - Game Changers
00:01:30 - What Am I Talking About?
00:02:17 - Understanding "Game Changers"
00:08:41 - Javelin (and Other ATGMS)
00:15:50 - HIMARS, GMLRS & TOS-1A
00:26:34 - ATACMS
00:39:58 - the Lancet
00:49:58 - Leopards & Terminators
01:00:47 - Reflecting on "Game Changers"
01:03:07 - Conclusion
01:04:22 - Channel Update
Thank you very much to the Patrons who voted to get this topic produced. As noted, I've stuck to well 'hyped' systems for this video, but if it goes well I'd like to look at much more underappreciated systems that have had equivalent (or potentially much larger) impacts.
I will add a small note on this one (also noted in the description) - when referring to RUSI figures on ATGM counts in Ukraine pre-February 2022, I am referring to modern, long-range ATGMs. The figures do not include short range NLAWs and equivalents, or the numerous but older systems like 9K111 or 9K115 in Ukrainian service or storage.
Mate have some fruit
Hi Perun, how many more Game Changers can the Rustkies take?
Hey perun!
Could you get us a overveiw of the battle of avdivka …? Its a real mess right now and a perun video could solve this!
@@icehelion9788 I don't expect to be able to cover it for another week or two, certainly not until the dust settles a bit and data firms up
Hey Perun, if all the equipment that the west is sending are already 'gamechangers'. Then what do u think will happen when the West really starts to send its big 'gamechangers' like the Apaches, Tomahawks n meteor missiles
As a military contractor, watching your videos has made me look like a damn genius at work. Half the guys don't really even fully understand how the equipment they build fits into a broader picture, they just know their jobs. Seriously, I may wind up with a promotion because of your slide shows.
Good on you for taking the time to keep up with things relevant to your job.
@@Humphreyat86 amen to that! It's something lots of people seem to forget: keep learning, whenever, however.
Weapon manufacturers always appear like sociopathic demons at arms trade shows, where half of their joy comes from the equipment being cool and the other half is they enjoy the thought of how many people it can kill.
@@wile123456This may not be accurate, if they are able to push an opponent back with only material losses it would also be acceptable.
You are doing your job well and you should be awarded for it👊
Despite all those billions of dollars in budget, the US DoD can never dream of catching up to Perun on powerpoints.
Building a 5th (or 6th) gen fighter jet is child’s play. Making an actually useful powerpoint is something no mere mortal has been able to accomplish yet... Perun is a vampire confirmed.
@@nekoJens HOLY HELL That is Funny
Your not lying. Where were you in all of those premobilization briefings and NCOPD.
DoD is PowerPoint Purgatory.
He is Australia's true wonder weapon, this is why he is banned from doing videos on his homeland.
"When you're trying to pack 900 submunitions into a single ATACMS missile, there's exactly zero room left for moderation or chill."
Quote of the month!
**Adds to list of Perun-isms**
And says that it is dumb is just begging for trouble
Sry for being dull, but I could actually do without the dry jokes. Regardless, *excellent* research/analysis besides that.
*checks timer* less than a minute in and I'm already LOL.
@@soderstadion77doesn't actually impact the presentation overall, mind you. I'm sure you can either get over it, or go pretend to be extra important in some boardroom somewhere.
The fact Perun can get almost 3/4 of his subscriber base to watch his hour+ long videos in a day’s time is pretty crazy. That shows that the content he is releasing out there for us (for free!) is truly next level.
I would love to see the viewer retention stats on how long people are actually watching the entire thing and thanks Perun for creating a community such as this!
Well, TBF I mostly listen while doing other things and only look briefly when the slide chances.
I for one may take up to 3 days to watch one of Perun's videos, but I always watch until the end because there is no better resource for this kind of analysis.
There’s only a handful I haven’t watched in their entirety. I do sometimes have to split them over several days, though.
I'd like to see what happened to the Switchblade drone in Ukraine. It was talked about by almost everyone, then 2 weeks after deployment, it was completely forgotten about.
Most likely got used, but you can’t expect much from limited numbers of glorified mortar with guided payload. Numbers are kinda important - compared to the insane numbers of drones used and lost in combat there, Switchblades were quickly overshadowed by masses of improvised machines. Plus I find whole Switchblade buzz as part of PR from their manufacturing company. At the same time Ukraine got plenty of Warmate loitering munitions and Flyeye recon drones from Poland... and contrary to Switchblade, it is buying more.
The small switcheblades were deemed to weak and expensive by Ukraine, but they really liked the bigger 600 model. Ukraine is building tons small kamikaze drones themselves now, somewhere I read 300$ a pop compared to a couple thousand for the small switchblade.
Forgotten headlines might be a nice topic to follow up upon: What happened to the Russian insurrectionists that suddenly popped up in the Russian territories?
@@onlymediumsteak9005 Fun Fact: Apparently, one of the Kamikaze drones that Ukraine is creating is, among other things, their own copy of Russia's Lancets. The drone's name is the "Perun"
also ground based brimstone
I would argue that from all of the systems we have seen so far, it is the humble consumer FPV drone that is the best candidate for the title of 'game changer'. The combination of minuscule cost, versatility, effect on morale of opposing forces wondering whether the distant buzz is a hornet or something with quite a bit more "sting", efficiency, the struggle and investment of both sides desperately searching for a suitable countermeasure, effect on enemy logistics and the sheer potential of where this technology can lead if scaled-up and refined is something, in my opinion, historically unheard of.
The subtext/context, literally the one thing he continued to repeat, without giving it a category of its own. But to be fair, it was Armenia 2018? that introduced that weapon.
I tend to agree.
@@up4openA little before that, actually. They started popping up in Iraq & Syria in the 2010s. And Iran’s used small drones to attack Saudi oil facilities.
Historically unheard of? What about guns?
@@horstnietzsche1923firearms took centuries to refine to their full potential. Drones may mature to their potential in a couple of decades at most
And another. An indisputable battlefield game changer for the Allies in 1944. Penicillin. A massive force multiplier. Not every war weapon goes bang!
Right on!
I've seen the number that 50% of injured russian soldiers that were treated (not counting the ones executed or that took the easy way out as they knew no help was to be expected), were amputated.
For the WW2 US Army it was 2.5%.
And it could be argued that the real 'game-changer' was not the P-51 Mustang but rather the effective fuel drop tanks that it could carry. It was a good airplane, but it could only have the range to escort the bombers with the drop tanks.
@@Duke_of_LorraineYou get less permanent casualties meaning more men back on the field. It’s perfect
@@enriqueperezarce5485also an effect on morale. You'll be more risk-adverse if you know you have higher risks of death or being permanently crippled (for some reason I don't think discarded mobiks will get bleeding-edge mechanical limbs)
Dude you are great at writing. Everyone is talking about your research and informativeness, but your god-like writing deserves as much credit
Chill. He is capable in writing. God-like this simply is not.
@@HanSolo__I think he was referencing the name
@@HanSolo__
God ain't real.
@@jeckjeck3119 Small "g" god.
@@HanSolo__ Perun = Slavic thunder god. Though interestingly enough a quick Google search for 'Perun' returns this channel as the first hit :-)
Weaponised and recon using cheap civilian drones on a massive scale certainly caused a few eyebrows to be raised in my opinion
I keep having nightmares of containers full of short range, anti personnel, infrared seeking drones that deploy, loiter, land and recharge their batteries.
we could very well be looking at this centuries land mine in terms of its impact on the battle field, as they get more deadly and likely more autonomous as time moves on, clearing up area's littered with drone mounted ordnance that's still "on mission" after the fighting comes to a stop is not going to be a particularly nice experience for those tasked to do it.@@ricardokowalski1579
The videos of drone-dropped grenades and PG warheads have been interesting, but I think the use of commercial drones for ISR at the small-unit level could indeed be called a "game changer". It makes aerial recon (sometimes with thermal sensors) so immediately available it can make or break a company, platoon, or even squad's mission. The importance of those individual missions fades in the overall context of the war as a whole, but are still important in the context of the way it's become a war of attrition.
From my chair the overall use of drones and the bang for buck they provide in this war (Not calling it a conflict) is the true game changer here.
Modified civilian drones started to become popular in Syria & Iraq about a decade ago. They also saw some use in the Armenia-Azerbaijan war, I believe. This is the first time they’ve really started being used at scale, though. They’re provide many/most of the benefits of stealth technology without using any. They’re just so small that trying to track them electronically would require you to recalibrate your systems in a fashion that would make it impossible to distinguish between signal and noise. Other than that your best tool is the Mark I eyeball. Some police forces have started training raptors to hunt nuisance drones, but that’s not very practical in a military setting.
Key thing is - numbers and sustainability. When I hear repeated news about double whammy on heli bases in Berdiansk and Lugansk, my main question is - where is the follow up? List of targets is most likely long for everyday fire missions, so it can only mean that again symbolic numbers of missiles and slow delivery.
What happens is that the opposition reacts to the introduction
Agreed on that issue, which is reminiscent of the general lack of scale on some of the other systems that have been sent or used. The introduction appears to have been done correctly - an efficient high value strike prior to adaptations being made. But the question is what the ongoing availability will be.
The issue here is range. These bases that are close enough for the heavy cluster missile are far and few but the loses incurred there by launching by surprise were absolutely devastating. Just like the first HIMARS raised absolute hell when they first arrived. But once Russia will have moved or adapted the loss will greatly diminish. However the effect would still be there and the system will most likely pivot to hit the next best thing.
For the GMLRS after dumpstering ammo depots it was command posts, then bridges or troop concentrations. Nowadays it's the above plus counter battery. You never really run out of things to shoot, you just find different ones. But it's not because it's not killing things as often that it's not just as effective preventing said things from being used as liberally as they did beforehand
@@PerunAU you should make a video about what sort of state Ukraine will be in when this is all over, irrespective of the outcome, maybe make a chart describing how much worse the situation will he with every passing month, those civilians (chiefly female) who left will have made new lives before too long after all, the highest quality ones anyway.
I suspect "lightning warfare" tactics of pressing an advantage isn't something we're going to see often in Ukraine by either side. I suspect in this case that Ukraine figures the risk of trying to mount an attack is too great with no more benefit than waiting some weeks because Russia isn't going to be replacing the lost helicopters soon or ever so if Ukraine prepares more for a winter attack, it'll happen with less uncertainty.
"This was one vehicle that very clearly wasn't going to be back." Thanks again. Used to be my job as an analyst to produce and deliver an entertaining & insightful hour long powerpoint once a month, on a specialist topic I lived and breathed... Usually took around 2 working days. I thought I was good... And then you start consistently producing highly entertaining, educational and appropriately funny presentations once a week, in a Sunday, in your own time. Hats off to you 😊.
No Sunday is complete without a Perun presentation. Thank you for providing us continually with such high-value information. Your capacity to produce these on a weekly basis at such high quality is impressive.
I remember reading of how the Aztecs, in desperation, resorted to their wonder weapon to defeat Cortez and his conquistadors - a weapon that had always brought victory in the past. This was the Quetzal Owl warrior. Basically, a man dressed in a chicken suit.
Hey! Don't knock the chicken!
The Aztec failed to see that by having their god/emporer kidnapped by the Spanish the Spanish just kneecapped every Aztec wonderweapon going forward.
In god we trust.
In god we.. Wait what god? The roman gods and their greek equivalent? Judaism? Islam? Chriatianity? Buddaishm? Taroism? What god is real and what is not? I can't trust this made up stuff with made up rules thanks.
Have we found out yet why it suddenly stopped working?
I am glad you're still covering the war in Ukraine, since all the mainstream media jumped off the "Ukraine War" ship and went onboard the "Middle East intrigue " ship
I for one was amazed how fast he got his Israel vid out, even tho he had already been working on it
If you think that's bad, just wait until the current administration decides that support for the ukraine war is hurting their re election chances. No political party is going to risk losing its control over a war. 3000 miles away in which we are not active participants. It is not a Democrat or Republican thing. It's just a "who controls" thing.
Political power is the most amoral resource there is.
@@stevewhite3424Lol get out of here Trump.
@@stevewhite3424You're assuming the majority of Democrat voters don't support aid to Ukraine?
@@stevewhite3424it’s far from a “losing” stance. Americans are losing interest in general but only 29% of Americans are actively opposed while 46% still are in favor, according to a recent Reuters poll in October.
And quite honestly most Americans are still of the opinion that America is simply shipping cargo containers of cash to Ukraine, as opposed to the reality of sending 30yo systems to be disposed by Ukraine, via the method of a land-air-sea sinkX into Russian equipment.
Democrats may eventually attempt to clarify that position with Americans, while Republicans will continue to push the narrative that Ukrainian government is uniquely corrupt and unworthy of support.
29:22 DARPA tried already. There was a sniper rifle that featured bullets with course correcting fins. It was called the EXACTO. While it worked, I believe it was just too expensive to produce.
That sounds like a DARPA thing to do. 🙂 I’m not knocking DARPA, btw. The DoD gives them a certain amount of money every year & lets them play in their sandbox. They expect 90%+ of their ideas to fail. It’s the one-in-ten or twenty that work that make it worth the expense…
DARPA has got to be what happens when you give /k/ engineering degrees and weapons labs
Seen comments of a couple of leopard crews who got blown up and any one of them said pretty much the same thing: "we are still alife thanks to this tank" sometimes they where salvagable later on sometimes not which is the same for any other tank i would guess.
If you want to train a tank crew to best possible state, it take a while. Them having been trained, gotten experience using that sort of tank and then surviving the tank been blown up, will gurantee them being able to use a replacement straight afterwards. So in that sense german efficiency is a thing ^^.
Only 5 Leopard IIs out of 71 sent have been damaged beyond repair. The other damaged Leopard IIs (10-15) have been repaired and put back into service. The reason you don’t usually see Ruzzian tanks being put back into service once knocked out is that they have that nasty habit of exploding and launching their turrets, whereas Western tanks are built specifically to prevent that.
@@bluemarlin8138Dude five where taken out in one day.
The ones that didn't make it back were unavailable for comment.
@@mitchyoung93 dark, not wrong, still dark
My pops made javelins. Spent the better part of his career making the sensors and guidance. He’s never been more proud to see the actual product he made with his own hands get used for their intended purpose. RVS of Goleta sends its regards to Russian armor.
And this random internet dude who has followed (and been thoroughly pissed at) Putin's antics in Ukraine since early 2014 sends your pops his regards!
@@Snagabott right there with you brother. As a Ukrainian American I followed this since before I went to college. Sad to see the war unfold proud to see my nation step up to fight autocracy. Together we will win.
@@NilessternerThe war ended last year, by the way.
????@@PancakeProduct
Help Banderite Nazis commit genocide against Russians?
This wonderful man is thanking us for 'engaging with the content' like he's not offering university-tier lectures on very niche but highly topical subjects one after another!
I found the part related to timing very interesting. Unfortunately, for some reason, Ukraine's backers have been blinded by this supposed "escalation risk" - against a country in the course of mobilizing reserves and annexing neighbouring states. This reluctance only serves to prolong the war.
Sending the message (not just to Russia but to the whole world) that nuclear blackmail works is the biggest form of escalation possible.
Nobody wants to admit that the Post-Cold War Pax Americana is over. I’m not saying we should rush into WWIII, just that we need to start thinking about the Russia-Iran-China-North Korea axis more seriously, and be ready to respond effectively when things get spicy.
Russia has been using everything short of nuclear weapons since day 1 of the war. The fear of escalation is mute because Russia will not use nuclear weapons because that would trigger WW3 and the death of everyone.
Giving Ukraine weapons faster and sooner will only shortened this conflict.
I can't bloody wait till Ukraine gets western aviation like F16 and especially Gripen.
Russia (or, more precisely, Poo teen's Russia) has so many times backed off after its red line bluffs that it should be clear by now that withholding help for these reasons is just plain stupid, and ramps up costs in dollars and lives for all parties involved.
@@grahamstrouse1165That is the most imbalanced power dynamic between the western world and those nations you’ve stated. WWII was already imbalanced with Germany and Italy and their minor allies with Japan, vs literal economies that can dwarf them. Unless this new axis gets a swift victory I don’t see how they can win or make public opinion of the war sour, in a war attrition they lose
Having forsaken religion, Sunday mornings are for Perun's slideshows.
Amen …
Thank god I have shit memory, every Sunday I get to be surprised by hour of high quality educational content.
HIMARS in Ukraine _does_ operate 24/7. Each vehicle has 3x teams of trained crew. One team sleeps, one team does general tasks, and the third team operates the system. Then after a few hours, they swap. I believe the awake crews do 2 shifts of 4 hours each, but I'm obviously not certain as to _that_ detail.
So yeah, it's not _seemingly_ 24/7, it's _actually_ 24/7.
God damnit Perun, you cannot drop such absolute units of a quote like you are reading the damn yellow pages.
"Stuffed with 960 cluster munitions, no room left for chill" is a Tshirt-able line if I ever saw one.
Concerning the ATACMS, GMLRS, and FPV/DJI Drones. These systems create dilemmas for your opposition instead of a problem. A problem can be solved or dealt with
effectively. Where if you create a dilemma, it comes down to which solution at the moment will produce the least painful outcome for your troops.
Moving your Command and Control, Ammunitions dumps out of range of these systems preserve your stocks. But, with the way that Russia packages and transports
those supplies, you introduce longer distances, and slower response to needs. The convoys needed to move supplies, become more vulnerable to surveillance and ambush,
further limiting combat effectiveness.
I never thought I'd get jumped by a Tier list in a Perun video. Great work as always, and I'm really looking forward to your drone video.
..Thanks for the update…Very interesting information…💙💛💙
Perun really is that one teacher who acts old and boring at first but just randomly drops the most in-tune and cool references all the time
Gepard was worth a mention, although not on the battle field. Drone elimination seems to have been a success. How much resource would have been diverted to damage control without it?
Gepard’s been very useful but I think we need a smaller, faster gun system for dealing with low-cost drones. Honestly, a fleet of modified Hilux’s with 20mm in the beds. Some shrapnel protection & upgraded sights would probably be fine.
@@grahamstrouse1165 Having some kind of radar/lidar integrate with a fire control computer (that can calculate lead based on velocity and trajectory) would be ideal. The problem with drones is that they're small, and in WWII machine gunners had great trouble manually scoring hits on much much larger air planes.
@@andersjjensen WWII light anti aircraft fire was basically throw as much s**t into the air in the direction of the bad guys as you can. If you shoot something down, bonus, but your primary job was to scare the pilot sufficiently that he missed.
that approach these days is very bad over populated areas, at least Gepard rounds self-detonate if they miss @@gwtpictgwtpict4214
The concept behind Gepard is a winner, but they are too expensive, being large and armored, intended for frontline battlespace. For a more versatile version, the Israeli General Robotics Pitbull is a much cheaper solution. Sadly, even Israel has not appreciated the genius behind the Pitbull, as they should have had hundreds of these around the Gaza border. Instead Israel had only a few older automated guns, some of which were taken out by drones which they should have, and Pitbull would have, taken out.
That picture of the helicopter silhouette with the burning airfield was incredible. Reading the translations from russian wasnt all that moving, but listening to them, there was pure terror in those voices, I mean I'm sure I'd sound that way as well. But just no idea wtf just destroyed everything around them, and without warning.
One thing to note about your P-51 example, the P-47 actually had enough range to fully escort American bombers if they had drop tanks, however the Air Force's "bomber mafia" thought the bombers were capable of escorting themselves and refused to order drop tanks for the P-47. The P-51's massive range was due to the use of drop tanks, as well as better fuel efficiency due to the smaller airframe. The main reason why the P-51 became so dominant was that it was significantly cheaper than the P-47 and other USA fighters. The channel Greg's Airplanes and Automobiles has an excellent series on the P-47 for those who want to know more.
When talking about weapon systems that didn't pass the hype test but had an impact on the battlefield, I think it would be interesting to take a look at the swedish CV90 IFV. That thing passed under the radar mainly because of the american Bradley deployment, but it seems it became a solid asset in the current offensive strategy in the south. Ukraine received something like 50 units, and then recently signed a deal with Sweden to jointly produce 1000 more, so I assume they liked the sample. Given that current assault operations are led by small infantry teams supported by an armored vehicle, and since Europe seems to deliver its MBTs in negligible quantities, the CV90 seems like a major contender to rebuild the bulk of Ukrainian armored forces.
And where,when and how are they preparing to build a 1000?😂😂😂
By the way it was taken out by an RPG7 LOL
My guess is that CV90 is a dual purpose contract. It's an ally maker and a cost discussion. Even if the US made Bradley at the same cost, the shipping rates and repair crew distances are a hinderance.
I heard Ukraine really liked Australian Bushmaster IFV's as well,but not sure how many of those are on the battlefield.
@@danielmlinar4892 Yeah, and your average BMP gets a hole blown through it by a .50cal, your point?
CV90s are stealthy and heavy firepower, not invulnerable.
@@danielmlinar4892woah, the anti tank weapon destroyed an infantry fighting vehicle? Stop the fucking presses.
Gotta be honest the little drones are the true gamechanger. They don't allow the enemy to concentrate troops unseen, thus making mass assaults pretty much impossible
Don’t forget the amphibious drones , & they were a definite game changer . Your reports are great , well spoken, & usually very conclusive to say the least. It’s apparent that a lot of time & thoughts go into these , along with great production , sound quality & clarity . I watch everyday for new posts to appear. Great job
I definitely would request follow up sequels. Patriot, Storm Shadow/Scalp, and Western IFV's deserve some love. Perhaps M777 as an honorary mention.
Plus an "overhyped bust" sequel would be great. Lookin at you Kinzhal.
Great work as always Grand Master P.
Don’t forget the Ruzzian “terminator” tank, which was promptly terminated as soon as it appeared in combat.
But Armata is good tank, u can only find "combat approve" and propaganda with non stop spinning turret...
Kinzhals were overhyped for sure, however, shouldn't be underestimated - they are still capable of going through most of our air-defence systems, unfortunately. Only patriots seem to somewhat consistently intercept them, but the damage from the intercepted missile is still considerable.
@@mateuszzimon8216 Due to new innovations in hydraulic technology, the Russian space force has recently begun to use the usually unmanned T-14 Armata turrets as G-force trainers for Rossiya Astra Militarum grunts
We don't even know any of that really. We hear Russians claiming that 100 out of 10 missiles hit and from Ukrainians that they shot down a 100 out of 10 missiles. Truth is in the middle and like most weapons it does it's job but nothing game changing. Same goes for Terminator. It is very good in urban and forrest combat but shit out in the field.@@MrMich1lol
One thing about the "efficiency" metric is that your own troops are also expensive, at least for first world militaries like the US. Using a Javelin on a technical may be overkill and expensive, but having one of your guys get shot by the MG on the technical because you decided *not* to use the Jav is more expensive.
Great video. Appreciate all your work. The selection of your topics and the thoroughness in their coverage is of the utmost professionalism. I am adding myself to your patron page. Please continue your great work.
As a Brit, it was pretty much always clear that handing over barely more than a dozen of Challenger 2s was never meant to meaningfully impact the war in of itself. More that is was a political act of breaching a dam of uncertainty by being the first to step over a threshold. If the UK hadn't taken this step, then how long would it have been for Germany or the US to take said first step? You could then argue that this - along with Storm Shadow/SCALP - accelerated the provision of other subsequent systems.
True, although if Ukraine had been able to launch the counteroffensive in early spring instead of having to wait until summer for equipment, then the minefields would have been a quarter as deep/dense, and Ukraine might have been able to break through quickly as originally planned. If Ukraine had broken through Ruzzian lines and gotten into tank-on-tank maneuver battles, then a dozen Challenger IIs could probably take out a hundred or more T-72s before being knocked out. And that’s not even counting the Leopard IIs, Abrams, Bradleys, CV-90s, etc.
@bluemarlin8138 bruv, this isn't a war movie, a modernized t-72 can easily take out any western tank. Tank on tank battles are all about who spots who first and who holds the positional advantage, which usually favors the defending side... none of this even matters in reality because 99% of tanks get destroyed by FPV drones, mines, artillery and ATGM's...
Quick addition, UK actually sent 28 Challenger II's, plus support variants. Its not really well known because the decision and the announcement that the pledge had essentially been doubled was pretty much pulled off very low key. By the time we knew it had happened the vehicles were, to my understanding, already in country.
I know 28 vs 14 isn't exactly game changing numbers wise, its essentially a company plus a few spare vehicles, but it is worth pointing out if only for accuracies sake. The announcement was made in March this year, or thereabouts, and was pretty much announced by a low key Army source rather than a big announcement by the politicians... Hence why its been missed by so many people.
As far as I know it was categorically rebuked by the UK government.
Though smoke and mirrors are to be expected.
lmao, it is interesting seeing 'my side' propaganda in real time. Though I suppose sunak *really* needs any win he can get.
One of the best times of the week! Looking forward to this one mate.
You never fail to bring a calm, rational and balanced view to very important topics. Thank you Perun, until next Sunday, be well.
I never miss these videos and am never disappointed. Would absolutely love a video on “game changing” abject failures.
This is by far the most important informative, enjoyable and downright spot on content that we need to hear about certain actions and monetary value in a strategic since the world insecure, you analyze situation’s flight just recently more often. Thank you so much.
Thank you again Perun for your outstanding work. You continue to fill in the gaps that media finds too boring to explore but are oh so pivotal to understanding the greater picture of events.
Really happy I found this channel. Really great research, and some quality humor.
This has been the highlight of everyone of my Sundays for a year and a half now. You are incredible, and what you have accomplished is amazing.
Analysis of the marginal and net impact of an intervention? With a military focus? By the famous RUclips Powerpoint man? My inner economist and stats nerd is beyond excited.
I went with Direct Impact, Efficiency of Impact & Holistic Impact for YT, but I really wish there was demand for "how to draft a business case for a weapon system" videos
@@PerunAU I can't speak for others, but I would binge a series like that so hard...
@@PerunAUWe are indirectly investors, naturally we should know what we are up against.
@@PerunAUI think you might find that there is.
I want it :)
Perun, another brilliant and timely video. I always feel smarter after watching your videos, not just for the intelegent content in PowerPoint but also for your witty and smart comments. It would like to see a follow-up video.
As always, your content is levels above and beyond most of the channels I mark as Not Interested. Thanks for clearing up the incorrect and often dangerous free information out there. Well done Perun. What can we expect when you hit 500 k subscribers?
As usual, your video is one of if not my favorite that I have watched this week. Well thought out, researched and very informative. Thank you.
Odličan kanal, pozdrav iz Hrvatske :)
Another great vid Aussie! I look forward to your power point every Sunday morning. Thank you for all the hard work you do to put out such a polished product every week. #StandWithKiwiland #StopEmuAggression
Thank you for continuing to put out some of the most comprehensive, level headed and reasoned analysis, where you show your sources and methodology. I'm the sort of person who entirely would watch hour long defense economic slideshows, but I'm glad to see I'm not the only one, and I'm even more happy to see that you're still putting in the same stellar level of work as always. The entry covering combat medicine has been one of the stand outs in my opinion.
Excellent video thank you. It seems that GMLRS & ATACMS have acted as shaping factors on the Russian army - severely disrupting supply logistics, command & control & aviation. The Beredyansk airfield strike does seem to be the strike of the war. Incredible damage to Russian helicopters which now have to move back 170km, reducing time on target by 50% at least.
Knowing Russian incompetence and corruption, it will be more than 50%.
I suspect that many, many militaries are doing similar, detailed evaluations on a lot of the systems and tactics being used.
Excellent video as always, all the best to you as well Perun.
Great content, scientific approach 👏
Scientific? Rigorous, yeah. Science, no.
Thank you for making my Sunday morning a staple of watching a video of yours!
I look forward to listening to these videos every week. I won't say they satisfy my thirst for data (I'm not sure anything could), but they go a long way to satisfying that thirst while providing excellent context, and a witty delivery that is dry as dust when it needs to be.
I would like to see a sequel to this in the next 6 months to a year as I figure that's when you'll have enough data to make a reasonably sensible/complete follow up, but who knows? As Michael Kofman likes to say, "Warfare is contingent."
“Oh man wouldn’t it be hilarious if Perun made a game changer tier list?”
>next slide is perun’s wunderwaffe tier list
I love this channel
Don’t take this the wrong way please bc I love your content but your delivery and just the whole vibe make you the perfect thing to listen to while I’m working or driving . The occasional joke delivered in a cadence that would make a professional meeting head jealous is just the icing on the cake. So glad I discovered you through animarchy, you’re one of the creators whose content I look forward to and whose catalog of past work I’m still trying to tackle. Love it as always, greetings from texas, p.s. we aren’t all crazy rightoids, some of us are just crazy
Great Video. Loved that you even include the really recent atacama attacks
WOW
Great episode, exquisite. Perun at it's best 😊❤
I look forward to my Sunday morning Perun. This topic is so relevant to the entire history of warfare ... from antiquity. It speaks to the general tread with so many systems that have been hyped and then slowly found their place.(chariots, cavalry, elephants, stirrups, various stages of armour, armoured ships [monitors], dreadnoughts, submarines, chemical warfare, tanks, aircraft, helicopters, ICBMs, Tony Stark's ironman). I personally find it more interesting to track the sequential reasons when the hype turns into complete failure. War is the pinnacle of an unforgiving reality check.
The catch with Wonder Weapons: First you need Wonder Recon to identify Wonder Targets to point them at in real time.
Some of the best PowerPoint skills I've seen. Very clear presentations. Hopefully this series can come to a close soon.
My friend...some of your analogies are alone worth the watch. You do a amazing job with your analysis and I love the sense of humor mixed in. Keep it up!
We appreciate all that you do. Great vid as always.
I am surprised Storm Shadow did not get a look in. That may not be a game changer, but it has had good impact in redefining the Baltic theatre in as much as turning Crimea into a contested zone for the Black Sea Fleet and it's command and control infrastructure
Perun always deliver.
I always reference your powerpoints to colleagues or students.
Many thanks!
Love the video! Thank you and the team for all the hard work!
This is already an hour long video, but there are some notable systems absent. Storm Shadow/Scalp for one. Then the Shahed drone for Russia which has been fielded in far larger quantity than Lancet and probably destroyed far more and then the Gepard as a gamerchanger vs Shahed and cruise missile strikes. Additionally the PzH2000 as one of the major self-propelled western Artillery systems and key enablers of the Kherson and Kharkiv offensives. Furthermore, various missile defense systems where the most hyped was probably Patriot. Lastly Bradleys and Marders were extremely hyped with many people talking about how Bradleys destroyed more tanks in Iraq than Abrams did.
On a final note, while not classically a weapon system, consumer type drones are probably the most deserving of them all. They have been transformative in virtually every role they are used in and are produced and consumed in massive quantities.
For good info on air defense try "habituallinecrosser." He is a bit political and a lot of his stuff isn't air defense, but he is US military trained in air defense, so once you weed through the chaff, he has good info.
One point he made was an attack by 5000 Hamas rockets and only 1000 were intercepted. He pointed out that if 5000 rockets are fired and only 1100 went to areas with interception capabilities, shooting down 1000 is pretty good. Not shooting down rockets outside your interception asset's range is not a system failure, it is a failure to have enough systems.
Shahed and Lancet aren’t really comparable. Shahed is basically a terror weapon that is easily detected and shot down, but forces Ukraine to devote air defense resources to guarding against it, and it sometimes gets through in less-defended areas. Ruzzia is resorting to using it only because they’re trying to preserve their stocks of cruise missiles. It may have destroyed more as far as amount of explosives on some target, but it simply lacks the precision and survivability to be a serious threat to smaller military targets, much less vehicles. Lancet (aka “discount Switchblade 600”) is quite good at taking out small and/or moving targets though. Although it appears Ruzzia’s supplies of them aren’t that high.
Bradleys, Marders, Leopards, and Challengers probably would live up to the hype if Ukraine is ever able to manage a major breakthrough and engage in maneuver warfare, and probably get a little air power. They’re just vastly superior to their Ruzzian counterparts. But no tank or IFV is going to dominate against artillery and trench lines if it has to navigate through 500m-deep minefields and doesn’t have air support to suppress or destroy enemy artillery and choppers. That said, even when knocked out, these Western vehicles have usually saved the lives of the crews (because they’re more valuable than the equipment), and most of them have been able to be salvaged for repair. In contrast, Soviet T-series tanks tend to explode, killing their crews and preventing any possibility of repair.
@@bluemarlin8138 There's zero evidence to support the superiority of Western armour, in fact the video evidence seems to suggest the contrary. Most are death traps and light up like firecrackers when hit with drones or artillery. Salvage isn't happening which is why Ukraine has to continually beg for more tanks and IFVs. Thousands have been fielded and they've all been destroyed.
Replace "western" and "ukraine" with just "russia " and you are correct @@MrGunwitch
I'd love to see you do a deep-dive on sanction busting, seems like the subject is right up your alley.
Thank you very much Perun ... another excellent and entertaining video, and your humor was on overdrive. Much appreciated and needed given everything going on.
Another excellent video! Relevant, interesting, informative and entertaining 👏
The big difference between Historical wonder weapons and Ukrainian wonder weapons is the Ukrainians are usually getting a very mature technology ready to go, with all the bugs ironed out.
To use the example of the WW2 German Comet rocket fighter, if it had been refined for a decade and was on its 5th block upgrade, and was mass produced with good quality control, it might well have been a game changer.
And if Ukraine was using the very first prototypes of ATGM's and long range surface to surface guided rocket artillery, they may not have been as effective.
[*Neptune anti ship missiles excepted - they are a new model of an established concept. Still their effectiveness was surprisingly good].
It's not new wonder systems, it's that this is the first real chance for some systems to get a real 'work out' against a modern military in a contested battlespace instead of the West having a turkey shoot against a greatly outclassed foe.
Agree 100%, except that if the Germans had been refining the Komet for a decade such that it became a major threat, then the US and Britain would have actually gotten serious about fielding their own jet fighters much earlier (because you can’t really keep hundreds of jet fighters a secret even in the 1930s). Yes, the Meteor and P-80 both entered service in small numbers late in the war, but the Allies barely gave the jet programs any resources until very late in the war. The outcome was a foregone conclusion by fall of ‘44 and they were able to counter the German jets with numbers and tactics, so there just wasn’t any urgency.
Of course, the obvious concern is that Ruzzia would be able to develop countermeasures to these weapons and share them with its nefarious allies, thereby reducing our future effectiveness. But as has been well-documented, these are mostly older versions of NATO weapons which have either been upgraded or replaced entirely since their production. And of course, the US/NATO can observe any Ruzzian countermeasures or potential areas for improvement and respond accordingly. And they simply have much more money and a much larger industrial base (plus better tech) with which to make such improvements than Ruzzia does.
Interesting, thought provoking content, as usual. Thanks for what you do, Perun.
Your stance on the Hilux v. Tomahawk seems intuitive enough. And yet...
(Great presentation, as usual. Thank you so much for your incredibly consistent top tier output! )
First time here, and honestly, this was an amazing video, would absolutely love to see more of these.
IT's interesting seeing the hype for things, vs how they preform
To be fair to the terminator, they’re only between 10 and 20 of them built for the Russian military and that’s not enough to make an impact, or survive the inevitable attrition long enough for them to remain as a presence on the battlefield. If the Russians actually managed to follow their own doctrine and use these things in combination with tanks, they might get some use out of them but I don’t see that happening.
Plus, systems don't become effective unless used in a critical mass by people who've used them long enough to use them right.
I understand the perceived advantage of using an unmanned or lightly-manned vehicle with lots of guns in an urban combat situation, but a glorified IFV with some extra guns is just a big target in that situation. Why would Ruzzia waste a tank chassis and manpower on this when it’s already losing 10x as many tanks as it can produce? The purpose would be served much better by small armed robotic vehicles like the US has, which are hard to hit and can be fielded in large numbers. I must assume that it’s just the usual Ruzzian obsession with wunderwaffen.
My Weekly Sunday starter. Thanks!
Awesome analysis and detail. Thank you so much for your hard work.
I loved closing on Bling and Basics! Excellent video as always!!
My only question is, will the atacms lead to the deployment of helicopter cope-cages?
😂 Reactive Armor ftw!
Or stacking tires on the rotors?
Thanks perun. Hope youre well
Thanks mate, big few weeks but doing fine
May I just say that this is my favorite channel ever ❤ please keep up the amazing work!
No time for sleep…Perun uploaded!
Favourite aussie slideshow man: have your engagement for the algorithm!
Always appreciated mate
@@PerunAU It's well deserved for all the effort you put into your presentations. Your work is well appreciated
Always interesting! Your videos have become part of my Sunday routine. Coffee and Perun! Thank you. ❤
I thank you perun for your dedicated, knowledge by offering and putting together in episodes, wishing you safe and successful future 🙏.
(love your content keep up the good work)
This was very interesting and i would definitely like to see a follow up about both overhyped systems that turned out to be a bust as well as those that were missed but you consider to be a gamechanger. Thank you!
Great stuff Perun,as always!👍
Great topic! Would enjoy seeing future videos along this line.
It was interesting listening to the description of BMPT and the drawbacks, particularly around crewing; your words would imply that a Defence organisation need to include the initial training costs and the ongoing costs of certification within the sustainment budget (i think you mentioned something similar in your procurement video). This would imply that the force should be able to break down their training cost by a capability to truly assess the ongoing sustainment effort. Of course, it would get a bit murky when considering common skills across multiple capabilities.
What kind of fun listening to this man.
I don’t know what kind of University gave him diploma 😂
Your video releases are literally the most consistent part of my weekly routine.
Another fascinating weekly dose of education. I particularly like the many very brief snippets of humour embedded (often as a single word) into sentences. Stop paying close attention and you'll miss them. E.g the reference to the Russian media budget in the section on the Terminator. Thanks again @PerunAU .
'Zero room left for moderation or chill.' 😂 Perun , you're the best!
I like how the new way to get rid of old and unwanted equipment is to just send it to the nearest warzone instead of recycling
I would rather it be disassembled, I can't speak for others. Here is a 'need,' and here is a 'tool.'
"New?" You must have been sleeping during the whole cold war I guess.
@@legoeasycompany more than 51% of the US was born after Reagan's first election, Boomer.
@@up4open763 wack, I get to be part of the worst generation
Thank you Perun. Again...., outstanding as always mate.
You consistently deliver high quality information. Thank you Perun.
Thanks for the latest video. It's 12 midnight here & wondering whether to listen now & be tired tomorrow, or try while driving tomorrow. The sensible approach would be tomorrow. Nah.
I had to click it, myself!