Many thanks to those of you who voted for the continuation of this series - though don't worry, I'll be looking at some of the close runners up soon enough. I do want to stress that the ranking system is not at all scientific and is based entirely on some partly subjective criteria I settled on, but I would very much like to hear whether you agree (or not) in the comments below. And yes, I think it's important to call out places where Russian technology is effective and impactful - which I think is very much the case in some system categories. Thanks as always, and all the best!
Ever pondered the question what must go wrong within a society to create conditions that lead to war? What would be a thesis for a 'universal' root cause that is responsible? And if that thesis exists (IMHO doubt that, at least for mainstream sociological sciences) - why isn't humanity capable to use that knowledge successfully to avoid violent conflict?
Looking forward to the PowerPoint on the efforts in managing aging stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction. As well as the challenges of modernising them.
About 'un-scientific' systems: You have to start somewhere and you suggestions are not only easy to understand. They are still stratospheres above anything available on RUclips, the Middle-Earth that most of us are likely to inhabit for the foreseeable future. You come up with 'rules of thumb' that means that I have yet to hear a military strategist on RUclips that I couldn't follow. That is no small feat, Perun. And if you want to expand your rules and schemes I suggest that you check in with, or run it by, Anders Puck Nielsen. He seems to have a wonderful nack of casually mentioning things that takes all us mere mortals three levels deeper than everybody else can. And as a visual person, I beg of you, please keep up the graphs, and visual models and figures. Again, getting EVERYBODY to understand the first 70% percent of any subjects complexity in ONE hour is no small feat.
"You should never underestimate the ability of a slav and a heavy vehicle to conquer almost impossible ground terrain." ~Perun, war logistic specialist
I just realized you can find hundreds of YT videos showing American farmers recovering their tractors stuck in the fields, but almost none from Eastern Europe…
@@rok1475 Whose side are you arguing for here? Are you making fun of Americans cuz they get their equipment stuck often and need to recover it? Are you on the side of Americans saying they are very good at recovering? Are you making fun of Eastern Europeans because they cant unstuck their equipment? Are you on the side of Easter Europeans because they just dont their equipment stuck in the first place? ??????
The single biggest game changer for _conflict in general_ is the weaponisation of commercial Drones. Not only for the Ukrainian war but warfare in general. And since commercial Drones are readily available for even non state actors, it's changed irregular warfare more than anything since the RPG, prehaps even more, you can't buy a RPG readily as a civilian. Commercial Drones will be used by terrorist cells for assassination, and by State actors pretending to be non State actors. One thing is for sure, future veterans will be getting their PTSD triggered back home by kids flying Drones overhead.
This statement should come with a big asterisk cosidering relatively light EW invironment in Ukraine (both Ukraine and Russia are mainly using fairly limited old Soviet capabilities with Ukraine being given modern wesern systems quite sparringly and modern Russian systems just don't work as advertised). There are much less videos of successful Palestinian drone attacks against Israel (apart from first days of the war when HAMAS caught IDF with its proverbial pants down).
As a citizen of a NATO member nation I can confirm that the stick used by Ukrainian troops to take down a Russian drone was a NATO stick. The story behind the stick is that my backyard garden was facing repeated assaults by the local rabbit tactical battle group, and while many battles have been fought with all sides taking significant casualties, the conflict escalated to an unacceptable level with the introduction of sticks. While the risk of mutual destruction was real, thankfully cooler heads prevailed and a peace agreement was successfully negotiated. The rabbits would retain some access to the garden with the assurance that they wouldn't consume all of its resources, and all parties agreed to stick disarmament, shipping all sticks to Ukraine's ministry of defense.
Perun doing another absolutely basic 101 lecture...on topics never experienced before. A Perun' video on ANY subject is definitely the easiest way to get a solid grasp on ANYTHING before everybody else. Dear Perun, your ability to grasp and promote complex, new ideas in easy and fascinating ways is bordering pure wizardry. I say this with some confidence because you swipe this old, though much praized, educator off his feet.
Perun follows a well-established format for getting info across - Tell em what you're gonna tell em. Tell em. Tell em what you told em. That might sound goofy but it's a very good method.
@@nicholasogburn7746watch and listen to the video, Perun compare sea warfare without mines ,hydrophones(active, sonar) and depth charges is like enabling wallhacks and godmode for ww2 subs. Because you can't find them, nor attack them. Without either, sea warfare would've become submarines on both sides of a conflict trying to sink as much and more tonnage then the enemy.
The US Army's decision to abolish the EW career field as part of modularization was not particularly wise. They are trying to rebuild this, but is hard.
I always appreciate how polite Perun is in these presentations. "Now before I school you all on 'game-changing' weapon systems, lets just have a quick refresher on the concepts you'll need to understand in order to fully appreciate the schooling you're about to receive on 'game-changing' weapon systems". Very considerate.
Quick note about Killjoy: While yes, militarily it makes little sense apart from being an oligarchs make money quick scheme or a good propaganda effort, it nonetheless has a decent impact, which lies in one of its shortcomings. When any particular MiG-31K takes off, it can be seen by radars, and an alert is sounded. On one side, its tactical merit is already lowered, on the other - you have a button with which you can shut down Ukrainian civilian and military activities as everyone heads for the shelter anywhere from a couple of minutes to 3-4 hours if the plane also refuels mid-air. In practice, of course, many civilians (myself including) frequently ignore the air alert from a MiG, but that can't be said about the armed forces, as they have to stop what they're doing and take shelter. You can judge the impact yourself, but in my opinion, it at least deserves an uptier just for this unintentional outcome.
@@murphy7801It's not about reducing the morale but rather about paralyzing the society. E.g.: in my home city Kyiv all public transport halts due to the safety protocols whenever a damn Mig is up in the skies. You can go ahead and use your imagination to determine what influence does it have on a 4 m megapolis. At least the Uber drivers are profiting, lol.
The stalemate situation with game changing equipment cancelling each other out reminds me of the Y2K bug. Expert IT technicians worked around the clock to make sure airliners didn't fall out of the sky and all the lights wouldn't go out and when those things didn't happen, due to their hard work and diligence, instead of putting them on a pedal stool everybody said, "Huh! What a damp squid!".
Oh dear god... I lived through that stupidity. After it passed without anything happening everyone crowed "SEE?! It wasn't shit." completely ignoring the fact that every single industry had been preparing for this for YEARS. Your systems were patched. Things were replaced. They weren't just thumbs up their ass ignoring the problem and then when their efforts panned out they got zero credit for preventing something in a way that was almost invisible to the common person.
My mom was one of the old-school COBOL programmers who both caused the Y2K Bug and spent 1997 & 1998 re-coding systems to fix it. Nothing Iike creating your own career demand. 😁
The true gamechanger are Perun's lessons on defence economics and how they shape my creation of D&D campaigns and story settings :D You bet every kingdom and evil warlord have a clearly defined supply-chain and let me just say - Dragons may be battlefield game-changers but (like nukes) being able to feed and afford one is no easy task.
Depending on what alternatives the settings offers, I can imagine them also being excellent reconnaissance assets. Anything that can fly and defend itself against common threats while doing recon sounds like it'd be a great force multiplier for a low-tech army.
@@PerunAU Usually the role of air-reconnaissance falls to rangers and their pets. Evil goblin rangers with pet night-owls/bats offering night-time recon capabilities are an unwelcome surprise for most players - with evil wizards and druids handling real-time battlefield communications via magic mirrors/water-bowls. Dragons could of course be used as reconnaissance assets, but they're much too valuable and useful in the role of close air-support and air/ground dominance units - their only real counter being small spec-ops teams(high-level hero parties) or enemy dragons.
Sad to hear that the video on battlefield medicine didn't perform as well as expected, it was interesting and it is an important subject, though maybe less exciting to the audience than talking about big hardware and things going boom 😞 But but very wholesome of you to decide to compensate for that on the charity front. Thanks for the excellent work as always. Lest we forget.
I wouldn't be sad. This series of comprehensive reports/commentaries Perun has produced so far is rightfully going to be a go-to reference on on the Russian invasion of Ukraine for years to come, if not decades. No other media source (that I know of at least) offers the same combination of weekly, focussed, intelligent, impeccably researched and occasionally humorous narrative. The viewing numbers of every one of Perun's publications will only grow. And deservedly.
So, I literally just posted a facebook post about how RUclips has just started to suck because it had gotten to where it would just reccomend sensationalist garbage and sponsored content. My good sir, you just made me eat my words, because this is the first bit of good, informative, well put together content in a while. Bravo. Here's the like, comment, and share for the algorithm. Should get you out there more, and hopefully will get me more recommendations like this.
I work in a plane engine factory in Spain (ITP), I only work on civilian planes, but we also do Nato jets. I love your work, your videos are probably the best analysis i have seen about the war. Thanks for your work and hope you the best. Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦 🇪🇸
The problem with discussions about EW is the same as ABMs, you are incentivized to not talk about it, and in fact you are rewarded for downplaying your capabilities and penalized for being honest or exaggerating them.
For me these 1h+ power point presentations while I'm indulging myself in my usual Sunday afternoon scale modelling session have become sort of a pleasant ritual. Thank you very much for your hard work, the information you're providing with absolute clockwork precision and incredible consistency are simply invaluable. 🎩
@@coolersmoke My interest is WWII planes and modern jets, especially US Navy and Vietnam War era but I've seen railroad dioramas that are legit works of art! Happy modeling and regards from Italy.👋
I think when it comes to game changers in war, the biggest I can think of is when Dr. Halsey handed the AI construct called "Cortana" to Noble 6 during the battle of Reach. She called it a Latch-Key discovery, but it's still essentially a game changer.
Sundays would not be Sunday without the weekly Perun presentation of stuff we didn't know we needed to know 🙂 but turns out to be vital! Modern warfare has become more and more lethal, meaning that attacking is harder than defending, as unfortunately Ukraine have found out this Autumn. Thank you.
Dear Perun: WOW! Just simply WOW! Right before my eyes you develop coherent systems and theories, yet undremt of, by me at least. I learn of the massive role of systems I've hardly heard of before. And I'm politely asked to comment as a an equal. Despite your utterly proud Colonial appearence you really are quite a gentleman. Ment in the deepest respect. I've already contributed my two bits elsewhere by suggesting that you cooperate with my compatriot Anders Puck Nielsen, as the only improvement I can imagine. And your Great War references touched me deeply. As a Dane I lost family from the Danish minority of Southern German Jutland forced into and dying in Imperial German Forces on the Western Front. And gained some grandfathers with shellshock. Lest we forget. Imagine that it takes an Aussie to remind me. Tears in my eyes. And sending more funds, over and beyond your promise. You don't have to excuse doing the honorable thing. I wish more people did. As I said, dear Perun, you really seem to be much more of a gentleman than your broard, joke-cracking, Colonial irony lets on. Bless you, lest we all forget doing honorable thing to our ability.
Neptune: Prevented Ruzzian fleet from threatening the southern coast with gunfire or invasion. Arguably a “game changer” to the extent that it made a seaborne invasion unrealistic. KA-52: Very useful for Ruzzia in opposing Ukraine’s counteroffensive in summer of 2023. But the reason it was able to be so effective was the minefields slowing down the advance and forcing tanks and AVs to move slowly in column formation, and sometimes disabling them. Ukraine moved air defenses closer to the front and changed tactics to compensate for this (and the minefields in general). Prior to this, the Ka-52 was just a pretty good attack helicopter that was only available in very small numbers, and 70% of them have been lost. The game changer was deep/dense minefields, not helicopters. HARM: Useful, but limited when used from MiGs because it can’t operate in its most effective modes due to incompatibility, and doesn’t have the targeting advantage of better Western radars and radar warning systems. This should become much more effective when used with F-16s. F-16: Too early to tell, but it should be a difference maker. It will allow Ukraine to strike back at the Ruzzian fighters that have been taking pot shots across the border, and it will enable Ukraine to use NATO weapons much more effectively. While the models Ukraine is getting aren’t the most updated, they’re far better than Ukraine’s 1980s vintage Mig 29s and better than most Ruzzian aircraft when you look at actual performance and not just advertised maximum Ruzzian specs under very particular idealized conditions.
@@augustuslunasol10thapostle that's a claim, not a proven fact. And you would be wise not to underestimate the enemy, never. Plus, the F-16 will likely not face the Russian fighters, but the Russian AA defence system and network...
@@knoll9812Provided they come with at least AIM-120C7s. The D model is our crown jewel so there's no way they're getting that one. And chances are the F-16s will be used mostly for DCA close to Kyiv and CAS for frontline troops.
That picture of the mobile tank jammer. Covering everything with ERA isn't a meme, it's a way of life. The cope cage has ERA. No idea how effect it is, but that is really packing on the kg. I wouldn't mind a dedicated episode on the super basics like MRE, field kitchens, boots armour, boots, and its evolution. Or how logistics works, how do you coordinate getting something where Amazon won't deliver.
As a counterargument, e could say that javelins and TB2s were a game changer simply because they allowed the war to go beyond the first few weeks. Without those systems, Using would have been quickly defeated and never have gotten the lukewarm support it currently enjoys.
I believe Javelins, employed in high numbers, single handedly saved Ukraine. A few infantry with Javelins in a platoon can take out a whole armored column with tens of millions worth of equipment, and experienced personnel, which is insane.
Thank you, Beau of the fifth column, for recommending this channel at the beginning of the war. And thank you Perun, for your reporting and analysis on this war, with clarity and detail in depth. Slava Ukraini!
Yes, a 1 hour ppp for my Sunday, love it 🎉 Thx for dilligent work. And may Denmark and all the free world step up support for Ukraine and sactions against Putin’s state
Vi spilder vores tid og skattekroner på en krig der ikke er vores i hver forstand. Er selv halv ukrainer med rødder i Odessa. Amerikanerne ejer os og tvinger os ud i en situation hvor alt først bliver ensformigt i sådan grad det via diverse markedsmekanismer kan manipuleres til at der er så stor forskel mellem rig og fattig at middelklassen nærmest udryddes, og hvem er så vores ubetingede overlords? De få amerikanere som havde midlerne til at bestikke, undskyld, jeg mener “lobby”, deres politikere. Disse politikere bestemmer i forvejen hvad Brussels politikere har at skulle have sagt, hvilket vi ofte i forvejen brokker os over- se dog det større billede for helvede.
Loved the video! I am surprised to hear that the medical video was not received as well as your usual videos. I really enjoyed it. As always thank you and the team for all the hard work!
It's an accepted military phenomenon that medical is not a primary focus and always takes the back seat to other systems unless the saving of life is the actual mission in a country's decided commitment to a war effort
While I'm interested in the subject, I'll admit I didn't watch that video for a reason that maybe others will share: it has to mention that people are hurt in war. While sounds like stating the obvious, but issues remain victimless crimes until faces are put to them. Even when talking about things that go boom and knowing that "going boom" often will mean dead and injured people, there's still a comfortable level of distance away. You can talk about them in terms of efficacy for dollars and destroyed equipment and enemies routed. Bone-shattering injuries and violent deaths aren't necessary to account for.
Such information is crucial to armed conflicts and wars, i am a former soldier trained by NAT0 and EU officials trainers, they gave us adequate and efficient training that can help to fights effectively, conventional war has changed into electronic warfare drones and unmanned, thank you perun for the great contribution, appreciated much.
Perception is weird - this wasn't a topic that I voted for, so I was instinctively disappointed to see that it was the video of the week. At the same time there hasn't been a Perun video I didn't like - so I just have to get over my tribalism, sit back, and enjoy the powerpoint like always
Год назад+10
I'd nominate counter-battery radar as one of the most consequential systems not yet mentioned (and general). Lots of enemy tubes have been going away. Hard to say how much of this is friendly ISR vs counter battery radar, but it's clearly a major factor.
Well, this is going to be fairly intense. As we came out of the GWOT with a whole lot of preconceived ideas, Ukraine turned everything on its head as a whole other type of warfare. A weird mix of WW1 with Vietnam era soviet armour, smart phones, missile campaigns and off the shelf drones to show everyone just how crazy it can get.
@@randomwarehouse4702 When Ukraine hauled out the twin linked Maxim guns with a red-dot on them, we might have reached peak milsurp... course, trusting soldiers with horse drawn anything is enough to give me a deep seated, somewhat irrational fear of what happens next
I think we sometimes get carried away with this. The war in Ukraine is very much shaped by Ukrainian and Russian capabilities. Especially strong GBAD paired with weak SEAD/DEAD. It seems like people draw over-broad conceptions about warfare from any given conflict.
@@deriznohappehquite Its somewhat vastly different from the air-superiority and in some cases, complete air dominance that happens in western doctrine. Like even in smaller western military forces the airforce tends to have a fairly massive budget set aside for capable aircraft.Even down here in the south seas banana bending country of Australia we dump a lot of cash into the airforce and its subsequent weapon systems hanging off them. I won't say its shocking, but it is a little jarring that things like SPAAG has come back with a vengeance when it was all but considered largely outdated 30 years ago and there hadn't been much time given to it in terms of R&D. There's still some trickling in with various companies like Rhinemetal but not nearly as much as say, MANPAD's get funded, but they're still popular in Russia as combination gun-missile systems. In their own way as anti-drone systems, I suspect they might get a bit more attention given to them by the western MIC as a budget-oriented solution to keeping drones out of your airspace.
"Like the time Ukrainian troops, reportedly, took down a Russian quadrotor through the high-tech expedient of throwing a stick at it... As far as I can tell, there's no available data on whether or not it was a NATO-supplied stick, but no doubt the use of such dangerous and advanced weapons on the battlefield can only lead to further escalation. "
I am reminded of the critical nature of accurate adjustable wrist watches with see in the dark hands during WWI. Because without them a great deal of offensive combined arms arty tactics were useful.
Commenting just for the RUclips algorithms because I don't know how else to thank you for these deep dives and incredibly insightful analysis. Keep going, and thank you.
I think one of the things that’s missing from this series are counter battery radar. Those systems have allowed Ukraine to achieve artillery parity or even temporary artillery superiority when engaging in combat operations with the Russians. It is Ukrainian counter battery that is halting russian offensive operations.
Thank you for another great video and greetings from Finland. It is a "what if" and there are multiple problems with it, but I would like a video from you for What if stuff would have been provided earlier and in greater numbers. Many many people with myself included have been annoyed of how slowly capabilities have been provided to Ukraine and in how small numbers. There must also be historical cases of armies looking back at conflicts and assessing what they should have done differently and those would be interesting to hear too.
Strip your own military bare to send somewhere else to be destroyed and watch your local foreign policy problems suddenly start to get worse. Would hamas have launched the attack into Israel if the US hadn't have had all eyes on Europe? Every nation with interests across the globe would start to see their influence eroded particularly where strategically critical resources are concerned. France and its uranium consumption for instance
@@jamesgornall5731There's a seed of truth in what you say, but it makes big leaps in logic. I recommend watching the episode from Perun about Finland and there was decent amount mentioned in one of the recent ones too but which, escapes my mind. Finland has sent a lot of stuff to Ukraine despite having comparable border with Russia with fraction of the population. We have also been maintaining defense and increasing it too. Our focus is to turtle things out and not power projection. On USA and its gaze: They try to focus on the whole globe and looking at the situation and history of Gaza, it seems that this sort of thing was inevitable. Desperation and no solution in sight. Taking advantage of distraction is definitely a thing though. I would like to send a moment cursing France but I'll pass on it for now. Strategic resources and uranium do not mix that well for how abundant uranium is. Extraction of it through is highly concentrated mainly for political reasons. There are good videos on uranium reserves on the internet if you are interested.
@@jamesgornall5731 France has enough uranium stored within it's borders for decades of operating all their reactors, not to mention diversified sources. All the idiot journalists proclaiming a disaster over losing 30% of your imports of something that you can get from hundreds of sources readily and have stores of that will last for decades is ridiculus. Uranium is not oil. You don't need a lot of it (by weight/volume), and it's source isn't concentrated to a few geographical areas like oil.
This one is easy : there are many, many factors that put together can actually explain the apparently slow deliveries to Ukraine. First was the uncertainty. A lot of Western commentators predicted a very rapid fall of Ukraine under the mighty boots of the unstoppable red army, in like 3 weeks-ish. While those people were not in the military chain, and definitely talked out of their behind, they were kind of right about the perceived strengths of the 2 belligerents (is that the correct term in English ?) And giving a lot of equipment to a country that was going to be invaded meant arming the invader with possibly some of your high tech last toys, or just more ammunition and guns... Never a great plan ;) Second, there were deliveries that were not publicly disclosed at the time. From what I know, France delivered some equipments before the 2022 invasion, after the 2014 invasion and annexation of Crimea (that is still lost for Ukraine to this day). Helmets and body armours, ammunition and ATGMs. That only became public after a year of conflict, but was not incorporated in the figures of "deliveries for Ukraine" of the 2022-23 (and soon 24) war in Ukraine. If other countries did the same, I don't know about. The non divulgations of those deliveries was also a way to try to keep open channels (for France) with Russia, to try to appease Putin and avoid conflict escalation as much as possible. From past history, we know what happens when a country feels isolated and desperate after a war in Europe (Germany after WW1, for example) This have France a bad press in the Slavic countries because they believed France was showing signs of "pro-Russia attitude", while it was actually trying to prevent war. It failed, but at least Macron tried, even if Putin was in fact just playing him. Third, there is the issue of availability of materiels. When your army is just mostly stationed in your home country, you can actually give some unused equipments to an ally in need. But some armies are heavily deployed outside. Again, France as an example. At the time, more than 50% of its armies were deployed in operation (anti-piracy on Eastern African coats, several missions in the middle-east and west Africa, protection of its outerseas territories...) it was using its equipment extensively and only had in reserve, well its reserves for time of crisis. It had to evaluate what they could spend (for how long before it was replaced) and what they just really needed. Again, some countries may have had the same issues, but some didn't (like Germany) and still took their sweet time to agree to give anything. Because fourth, those equipments are expensive and sometimes are the best high tech pieces a country can produce. You don't want to give that to anyone for free, especially when the technology inside is cutting edge and took a lot of time and investment to develop and master. There are some indication that the new ATGMs and SRAA missiles developed by Ukraine are in fact copies of equipments they received, disassembled and copied. That means IP is being stolen and it is pretty clear that this new modern missiles (and more, like thermal or IR sights) will be exported at a very competitive cost, no R&D having to be reimbursed, basically cutting the market shares (and the survival) of the company that provided the original equipments. Fifth, I'm sure there are more reasons, but I need to read what I wrote again (on my mobile) to avoid repeating myself too much XD...
I think weapons are only game changing when introduced in sufficient quantity and variety. You cannot just dump a bunch of machine guns to whom before were civvies 5 minutes ago and expect their combat efficiency to go up drastically, are they more effective in combat? Sure, but they're still fresh, unskilled and would most likely still fail at attacking once their enemy readjust their threat assessments and strategy. Giving them training, logistics, tanks, body armors, intelligence and equipment and they might commence a successful attack.
Look at us Germans in WW2...V2 rocket, first assault rifle, Tiger tank etc. but not in sufficient quantity and with to much variety which makes repair and maintenance difficult..
@@Rellana1And the production of which was vastly enabled by ten to twelve million forced and slave laborers using stolen materials from their conquered territories.
@@stevewhite3424 And that's relevant to this discussion how? The guys on the battlefield (on either side) aren't likely to waste their time evaluating the weapon system on how (im)moral the production process is. It's not like the Allies shirked from using slave soldiers; yes, it's euphemized as 'the draft' and 'conscription,' but it's still forcing people into a deadly situation they didn't choose.
Whenever I hear One of Perun's jokes, I cannot help but imagine him in a massive lecture hall briefing military officials and all of them doing little Beavis & Buttthead laughs.
Yesterday was Armistice Day, when the Entente Cordiale signed an armistice with the remaining Central Power, bringing the fighting to an end on the Western Front. Didn't end the war though in practical terms, certainly for people basically anywhere east of the Rhine. I also had the opportunity to hold a pistol for the first time. They are rather heavier than you probably think they are, about a kilogram for a fairly small object. A couple of other semi automatic rifles as well, and for the first time used a sling with it. The range turned out to be closed so we had to go back and lock the guns up again but at least it was good practice for my muscle memory to always keep tabs on where you point the gun and keeping your finger off the trigger. It seems though that some Russian politicians need to learn this lesson.
Getting close to half a million subscribers! and well deserved! Your content is top notch as always! And yea, hard agree on the EWAR being a gamechanger, similar to a laser-based hardkill system (if/when it exists), both bring the cost of an interception down massively to help fight against asymmetric threats
As a sensor operator in a military life all be it a different type of sensors (acoustic) and a network guy in civilian life I found this interesting and in some ways validating. As usual a very well done and informative video, D72A, (any Collins class friends can explain)
If memory serves, i caught your first Ukrainian War video within 48 hours of upload. Thank you for maintaining your focus on this existential confilct. Unfortunately, i sense that viewership figures per episode will correlate with munitions made available. As a barstool cynic muttered to me ... 'a dirty bomb outside the Hermitage Museum is worth more than 30,000 Ukrainian light infantry.' Russian costs in this war must quickly become both undeniable and extreme. 'Rus' of legend is only ever defeated from the inside out
I would like to say, that the smartphone is a gamechanger as well. Never has it been easier to share information. Never has it been easier to violate OpSec. Never was it possible to be at war and skype home. Never was it easier to make, produce and distribute propaganda. Also it enables the most drones to work properly.
Perun I must inform you that as an honorary Aussie, my wife is gonna send me back to the US if I stay up late again due to these uploads. Please mate, I kinda like it here.
Get reset to lose your assets. I married a Ukrainian in Ukraine and kept her there, because Australian women are notorious for destroying your wealth then taking 25 percent of your income until kids are 18
Gonna watch your medical vid now because you mentioned it. Thanks for being transparent and thanks for your content Perun!!! Been sharing you far and wide since you started making Ukraine content
Have you considered uploading these as audios on podcast apps? Me and many other listen to them in the background, and some podcast apps give much better ad revenue than RUclips.
As usual, an amazing analysis. “Game changer” is one of those terms that doesn’t have a specific meaning and is used depending on the context. On one hand and at the highest level, it applies to things that change the very nature of war and may not be directly obvious. Consider railroads. The book “Engines of War” describes how the introduction of rail in the nineteen century had a major impact on how wars were fought and logistics affecting both tactical and strategic doctrine. I’m not sure if there is an equivalent in this war unless you consider general surveillance capabilities (Satellite, drone, video). Not only are the combatants able to see where the adversary is in real time, but to have large amounts of information about the effectiveness of their efforts. Essentially this is the first “smartphone war”. Game changers also may have a shelf life as the opponents adapt to their introduction. German submarines ran rampant in WWII until the introduction of counter measures such as Huff-Duff and Hedgehog mortars. I don’t think they make them any less of a game changer because of that because it does force the opponent to counter them or to employ it themselves. Sometimes the game doesn’t change abruptly. The introduction of the tank in WWI didn’t really change the game until WWII nor did the airplane. Even in WWII horses were being used to haul artillery, though the day of the horse cavalry had passed with the introduction of machine guns and armor.
Subs were really more of a game-changer in WWI than WWII. Of course they had a great effect in WWII as well, but everyone knew they were a threat due to the experience with them in WWI. The reason they ran wild in 1941 is that Britain was counting on having France’s navy covering the Med, and allowing the Royal Navy to focus on the Atlantic. It also didn’t think it was going to have to fight Japan, at least not so soon. Britain had enough escorts for the scenario it planned for, just not for the one it ended up facing. And even still, Britain was never close to being out of WWII because of the u-boats. However, it really was about 60 days from being knocked out of WWI in 1917 due to the u-boats before improved countermeasures plus US involvement turned the tide.
31:00 correction: it was found that during high seas during a storm the moskva's air defense simply didn't recognize wave top missiles inbound. the 'distraction' is literally a 'red herring'
It’s genuinely insane that Russia failed to destroy TB2s immediately after the war started. By all means the TB2 isn’t a bad drone but it should have been rocked by any modern army with solid air defense.
Russia's problem was their success oriented approach in the opening days. All those columns hit by TB2 does drones were advancing, as ordered, in 'administrative columns' - what you do when driving around your own territory in peace time. There was no air defence because they were told that the only things flying in the sky would be Russian. Why? Because they assumed the initial air and missile strikes, plus airlifted VDV units, would destroy and disrupt Ukrainian forces to the extent that these columns would face no resistance (and be greeted as liberators). The really shocking thing is just how long it took for them to react to reality and accept that none of this was actually the case.
@@PhillS303And if Ruzzia were to ever do something really stupid and start a war with NATO, I suspect it would TRY to go into it with air defenses ready, only to find that those air defenses really don’t work that well when your enemy has hundreds/thousands of stealth aircraft, thousands of cruise missiles and rocket artillery rounds, and world-leading EW capabilities and signals/satellite intel.
I'd argue that another vital layer contributing to battlefield transparency and enabling the kill chains is the communications software. Ukraine has things like Kropyva and Delta that allow drone operators and other intelligence assets to relay found enemy positions and units to commanders and artillery teams in a clear, precise, and swift manner, so that the new information can immediately be integrated into the larger battlefield picture, and acted upon.
Given Russia's failure to take out telecommunication infrastructure in the opening days, smartphones WERE a game changer. Every civilian with a phone was an intelligence agent.
"And, of course, if you have the information gathering and network, but no or insufficient fires, well then you might learn everything there is to know about a potential threat, and not be able to do anything about it. Sorry if that hits a bit clsoe to home for any academics in the audience." You called it, close to home & story of my life.
I'd be interested in an entire video on electronic warfare if you can find enough material for a full video. It's such a crucial part of the new way of war but there's really not a lot of content about it out there.
An unverified comment i saw somewhere claimed that the reason Russia is willing to modify MiG-31s for ground attack is because they have a shortage of components to repair the radar system and so the platforms can’t be used in the traditional manner.
I think it's dangerous to underestimate militarily (or para) repurposed commercial, even consumer or prosumer grade processing and sensor hardware. A crapton of this stuff is plenty capable of serving thst purpose, and it's usually very easily available in very large quantities. The large userbase often mean most kinks are already ironed out, open source software and firmwares make it fairly easy to repurpose, and there's thousands of commecial supply channels that can be exploited ad manipulated even under heavy sanctions. In contrast, domestically assembled military grade stuff can be much more difficult to keep up, because most countries don't produce the discrete components, there's hundreds of types going into many designs, and you might be stuck for months or years if you lose access to any number if them because many of those chips are special purpose and often very low volume, making it much "easier" to restrict access in practice because there might only be one or a few manufacturer and no real dual purpose. This is obviously a simplified and on the nose example - but while you can probably redesign and find a way to rework around the issues with military special design - finding someone else to sell you a few thousand raspberry pis a week is probably much faster and easier. Especially if you grase some palms, or just use take 2 days to transition to some of the many dozens of chinese spinoffs.
With regards to Starlink. Not only would Russian's attacking the satellites be an act of war, but you also have to attack many of them to have anything more than a minimal effect. Maybe even thousands of them, depending on what you are trying to do. Meanwhile SpaceX is launching them at a rate that is probably about 40ish / week. Until Starship comes online, then it will be hundreds / week.
@@florianschneider3982don't laugh too hard from what the US military personnel allow to view spaceXs war room it's highly likely that the US wouldn't be able to break the system either. Without the ability to physically capture the staff and equipment
@@florianschneider3982 sorry only public source I have seen was near the start of the war when a US service man( General I think)was interviewed about starlink and he was saying they are doing things in real-time with have never even thought of we have a lot to learn , this was of course before either musk went insane or the democrats black listed him for not being woke and pro union.
Thing is though there have been no game changers really. I think things like hypersonic weapons will ultimately make a difference if they can be produced at scale but if you assess the war as a whole you can see it is still down to time honoured elements like logistics, strategic resources and an industrial base. Same reason why the Germans lost on the eastern front really. They picked a fight with an enemy who had access to basically limitless strategic resources and an industrial base. That's what counts not wunderwaffe.
Russia converted 10 valuable MIG-31 in order to fire Kinzhal missiles - of which they produce only 4 per month. That is... interesting. Even by Russian standards.
I feel like it's probably just an assumption that if there's a bunker or building or something it's going to have a large concentration of a high ranking officers.. as is tradition in Russia, something about the Pacific fleet in the Soviet era.. giant roll of paper.. something something.. etc..
It's important to remember that when David fought Goliath, he was using a tried and true guided missile launcher system that was effective to mass produce and supply ammo for.
I simply love these kinds of video discussions even if you didn't talk about hypersonic magic markers, steal ballpoint pens, or the complete elimination of can openers from modern MREs.
Brilliant as per usual. One gets used to excellence far too easily. I have the greatest respect for the effort it takes to create the analysis and then translate it into such accessible presentation.
Many thanks to those of you who voted for the continuation of this series - though don't worry, I'll be looking at some of the close runners up soon enough.
I do want to stress that the ranking system is not at all scientific and is based entirely on some partly subjective criteria I settled on, but I would very much like to hear whether you agree (or not) in the comments below. And yes, I think it's important to call out places where Russian technology is effective and impactful - which I think is very much the case in some system categories.
Thanks as always, and all the best!
Ever pondered the question what must go wrong within a society to create conditions that lead to war? What would be a thesis for a 'universal' root cause that is responsible? And if that thesis exists (IMHO doubt that, at least for mainstream sociological sciences) - why isn't humanity capable to use that knowledge successfully to avoid violent conflict?
Truly loved the other suggestions, too. Thanks for the continued Education and Entertainment!
further proof that Perun > Veles
Looking forward to the PowerPoint on the efforts in managing aging stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction. As well as the challenges of modernising them.
About 'un-scientific' systems: You have to start somewhere and you suggestions are not only easy to understand. They are still stratospheres above anything available on RUclips, the Middle-Earth that most of us are likely to inhabit for the foreseeable future.
You come up with 'rules of thumb' that means that I have yet to hear a military strategist on RUclips that I couldn't follow. That is no small feat, Perun.
And if you want to expand your rules and schemes I suggest that you check in with, or run it by, Anders Puck Nielsen. He seems to have a wonderful nack of casually mentioning things that takes all us mere mortals three levels deeper than everybody else can. And as a visual person, I beg of you, please keep up the graphs, and visual models and figures.
Again, getting EVERYBODY to understand the first 70% percent of any subjects complexity in ONE hour is no small feat.
If anyone could cover "uniforms, ration packs, body armor, or encrypted comunications" and keep the attention of an audience, it would be Perun.
Well, we know that Russian logistics, supply, suppirt. body armor and comms discipline are dog shyte, as Perun might say.
Kind of lacking in covering uniforms, ration packs, and body armor though.
He could talk about supply chain logistics and we will still click onto the video.
Yes, your troops not dyeing of exposer might help.
I zone out almost instantly when i hear this guys condescending voice
"You should never underestimate the ability of a slav and a heavy vehicle to conquer almost impossible ground terrain."
~Perun, war logistic specialist
Some needs to make this into a t shirt
I just realized you can find hundreds of YT videos showing American farmers recovering their tractors stuck in the fields, but almost none from Eastern Europe…
@rok1475 It also has to do with the kind of trucks each side drives.
@@ΣτελιοςΠεππας it also has something to do with the skills of the operator.
@@rok1475 Whose side are you arguing for here? Are you making fun of Americans cuz they get their equipment stuck often and need to recover it? Are you on the side of Americans saying they are very good at recovering? Are you making fun of Eastern Europeans because they cant unstuck their equipment? Are you on the side of Easter Europeans because they just dont their equipment stuck in the first place?
??????
Hooray! Time for powerpoint!
Agreed!
Word!
Thats my reaction everytime 😊
@YukiOnTour you Excel at Microsoft puns
Amazing that I can look forward so much to a PowerPoint. What is wrong with me. 😁
The single biggest game changer for _conflict in general_ is the weaponisation of commercial Drones.
Not only for the Ukrainian war but warfare in general.
And since commercial Drones are readily available for even non state actors, it's changed irregular warfare more than anything since the RPG, prehaps even more, you can't buy a RPG readily as a civilian.
Commercial Drones will be used by terrorist cells for assassination, and by State actors pretending to be non State actors.
One thing is for sure, future veterans will be getting their PTSD triggered back home by kids flying Drones overhead.
I think we’ll see counters to civilian grade quadcopters proliferate pretty rapidly.
This statement should come with a big asterisk cosidering relatively light EW invironment in Ukraine (both Ukraine and Russia are mainly using fairly limited old Soviet capabilities with Ukraine being given modern wesern systems quite sparringly and modern Russian systems just don't work as advertised). There are much less videos of successful Palestinian drone attacks against Israel (apart from first days of the war when HAMAS caught IDF with its proverbial pants down).
@@deriznohappehquitethere's plenty already, including small arms fire. The question is one of cost and constant vigilance VS cheap and everywhere.
Next fear is full automation of said drones, which can mean several possible troubles for humanity.
A bit like dynamite, I guess...
As a citizen of a NATO member nation I can confirm that the stick used by Ukrainian troops to take down a Russian drone was a NATO stick. The story behind the stick is that my backyard garden was facing repeated assaults by the local rabbit tactical battle group, and while many battles have been fought with all sides taking significant casualties, the conflict escalated to an unacceptable level with the introduction of sticks. While the risk of mutual destruction was real, thankfully cooler heads prevailed and a peace agreement was successfully negotiated. The rabbits would retain some access to the garden with the assurance that they wouldn't consume all of its resources, and all parties agreed to stick disarmament, shipping all sticks to Ukraine's ministry of defense.
But how do we know you're not developing bIoEnGiNeErEd StIcKs in an underground lab? Burden of proof is clearly on you...
"citizen of a NATO member nation"
ROFLMAO
Perun doing another absolutely basic 101 lecture...on topics never experienced before.
A Perun' video on ANY subject is definitely the easiest way to get a solid grasp on ANYTHING before everybody else.
Dear Perun, your ability to grasp and promote complex, new ideas in easy and fascinating ways is bordering pure wizardry.
I say this with some confidence because you swipe this old, though much praized, educator off his feet.
Perun follows a well-established format for getting info across -
Tell em what you're gonna tell em.
Tell em.
Tell em what you told em.
That might sound goofy but it's a very good method.
Perun is very very good at what they do, and I love that they're here. Very few news channels I watch but they're top 3.
It is called "historian". Though some of us suck at delivering the information we have so easily processed.
Pretty sure he briefs politicians for a living.
@@i-love-comountains3850 "they?" He's a real boy, you know?
As a submariner, I fully approve of my platform being referred to as “The tech equivalent of wall hacks and God mode”
WHO SAID THAT?? O.O
@@nicholasogburn7746watch and listen to the video, Perun compare sea warfare without mines ,hydrophones(active, sonar) and depth charges is like enabling wallhacks and godmode for ww2 subs. Because you can't find them, nor attack them. Without either, sea warfare would've become submarines on both sides of a conflict trying to sink as much and more tonnage then the enemy.
@@nicholasogburn7746 7:50 onwards.
I'm 57 blue collar all my life never thought I'd enjoy this type of format but here I am week after week enjoying the information.
The US Army's decision to abolish the EW career field as part of modularization was not particularly wise. They are trying to rebuild this, but is hard.
It sounds like a decision by a genuine idiot!
I always appreciate how polite Perun is in these presentations.
"Now before I school you all on 'game-changing' weapon systems, lets just have a quick refresher on the concepts you'll need to understand in order to fully appreciate the schooling you're about to receive on 'game-changing' weapon systems".
Very considerate.
There are no game-changing weapons systems. Russia is much bigger and will win, so how has the game been changed?
@@gandydancer9710 cope and seethe vatnik
Quick note about Killjoy:
While yes, militarily it makes little sense apart from being an oligarchs make money quick scheme or a good propaganda effort, it nonetheless has a decent impact, which lies in one of its shortcomings. When any particular MiG-31K takes off, it can be seen by radars, and an alert is sounded. On one side, its tactical merit is already lowered, on the other - you have a button with which you can shut down Ukrainian civilian and military activities as everyone heads for the shelter anywhere from a couple of minutes to 3-4 hours if the plane also refuels mid-air. In practice, of course, many civilians (myself including) frequently ignore the air alert from a MiG, but that can't be said about the armed forces, as they have to stop what they're doing and take shelter. You can judge the impact yourself, but in my opinion, it at least deserves an uptier just for this unintentional outcome.
Is that so? In my mind the targets that would justify the cost of a kinzhal are quite limitied that most military targets won't really have to worry.
Hard disagree, we saw this effect with the blitz over London. It didn't reduce moral. It increased it.
@@murphy7801 I don't think its about reducing morale, but to make people and the military waste time.
But is it worth it when you might achieve roughly the same effect with a cheaper system that would have more reasonable targets?
@@murphy7801It's not about reducing the morale but rather about paralyzing the society. E.g.: in my home city Kyiv all public transport halts due to the safety protocols whenever a damn Mig is up in the skies. You can go ahead and use your imagination to determine what influence does it have on a 4 m megapolis.
At least the Uber drivers are profiting, lol.
The stalemate situation with game changing equipment cancelling each other out reminds me of the Y2K bug. Expert IT technicians worked around the clock to make sure airliners didn't fall out of the sky and all the lights wouldn't go out and when those things didn't happen, due to their hard work and diligence, instead of putting them on a pedal stool everybody said, "Huh! What a damp squid!".
Oh dear god... I lived through that stupidity. After it passed without anything happening everyone crowed "SEE?! It wasn't shit." completely ignoring the fact that every single industry had been preparing for this for YEARS. Your systems were patched. Things were replaced. They weren't just thumbs up their ass ignoring the problem and then when their efforts panned out they got zero credit for preventing something in a way that was almost invisible to the common person.
My mom was one of the old-school COBOL programmers who both caused the Y2K Bug and spent 1997 & 1998 re-coding systems to fix it. Nothing Iike creating your own career demand. 😁
pedal stool
now THAT is a boneappletea lol
@@TheActionBastard so.. Y2k was really an ACTUAL problem not just a
'mayan calender' situation?
If you know, you know. @@meinnase
4:51 AM on a Sunday. Perfect time for an Australian to teach an American about European conflicts.
Beautifully put. Europe's colonial chickens coming home to roost.
Interestingly enough he would never make such an arrogant claim.
@stevewhite3424 Bold of you to assume. Please, pick another person you've never met and tell us all what they would or wouldn't say.
XD
The true gamechanger are Perun's lessons on defence economics and how they shape my creation of D&D campaigns and story settings :D
You bet every kingdom and evil warlord have a clearly defined supply-chain and let me just say - Dragons may be battlefield game-changers but (like nukes) being able to feed and afford one is no easy task.
Depending on what alternatives the settings offers, I can imagine them also being excellent reconnaissance assets. Anything that can fly and defend itself against common threats while doing recon sounds like it'd be a great force multiplier for a low-tech army.
@@PerunAU Usually the role of air-reconnaissance falls to rangers and their pets. Evil goblin rangers with pet night-owls/bats offering night-time recon capabilities are an unwelcome surprise for most players - with evil wizards and druids handling real-time battlefield communications via magic mirrors/water-bowls.
Dragons could of course be used as reconnaissance assets, but they're much too valuable and useful in the role of close air-support and air/ground dominance units - their only real counter being small spec-ops teams(high-level hero parties) or enemy dragons.
As a fellow DM, why do you give me such evil ideas?
Sad to hear that the video on battlefield medicine didn't perform as well as expected, it was interesting and it is an important subject, though maybe less exciting to the audience than talking about big hardware and things going boom 😞 But but very wholesome of you to decide to compensate for that on the charity front.
Thanks for the excellent work as always.
Lest we forget.
I wouldn't be sad. This series of comprehensive reports/commentaries Perun has produced so far is rightfully going to be a go-to reference on on the Russian invasion of Ukraine for years to come, if not decades. No other media source (that I know of at least) offers the same combination of weekly, focussed, intelligent, impeccably researched and occasionally humorous narrative.
The viewing numbers of every one of Perun's publications will only grow. And deservedly.
The academic joke was so subtle yet probably one of the best he's made so far lmao
So, I literally just posted a facebook post about how RUclips has just started to suck because it had gotten to where it would just reccomend sensationalist garbage and sponsored content. My good sir, you just made me eat my words, because this is the first bit of good, informative, well put together content in a while. Bravo. Here's the like, comment, and share for the algorithm. Should get you out there more, and hopefully will get me more recommendations like this.
I work in a plane engine factory in Spain (ITP), I only work on civilian planes, but we also do Nato jets.
I love your work, your videos are probably the best analysis i have seen about the war. Thanks for your work and hope you the best. Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦 🇪🇸
Friemdly reminder: you may want not to advertise your current defence-related work openly.
Perun: "Unless you count balloons the TB2 has destroyed more aircraft than the f22 raptor"
F22: "Would you intercept me? I'd intercept me"
"You got to eat?!"
"It smells like BITCH in this airspace!"
Ha ha ha that is a quote from Christopher Griffon hahaha
@@skankhunt9078 It has evolved into a running joke about the f22 on HabitualLineCrossers' channel
The problem with discussions about EW is the same as ABMs, you are incentivized to not talk about it, and in fact you are rewarded for downplaying your capabilities and penalized for being honest or exaggerating them.
For me these 1h+ power point presentations while I'm indulging myself in my usual Sunday afternoon scale modelling session have become sort of a pleasant ritual.
Thank you very much for your hard work, the information you're providing with absolute clockwork precision and incredible consistency are simply invaluable. 🎩
A man after my own heart. I'm usually repairing an OO gauge loco and absorbing :)
This is exactly the type of demographic I imagine listening to this content unless it's job related.
@@coolersmoke My interest is WWII planes and modern jets, especially US Navy and Vietnam War era but I've seen railroad dioramas that are legit works of art!
Happy modeling and regards from Italy.👋
I think when it comes to game changers in war, the biggest I can think of is when Dr. Halsey handed the AI construct called "Cortana" to Noble 6 during the battle of Reach. She called it a Latch-Key discovery, but it's still essentially a game changer.
Thank you for your work Perun, always appreciate it.
Sundays would not be Sunday without the weekly Perun presentation of stuff we didn't know we needed to know 🙂 but turns out to be vital! Modern warfare has become more and more lethal, meaning that attacking is harder than defending, as unfortunately Ukraine have found out this Autumn. Thank you.
Dear Perun: WOW! Just simply WOW!
Right before my eyes you develop coherent systems and theories, yet undremt of, by me at least. I learn of the massive role of systems I've hardly heard of before. And I'm politely asked to comment as a an equal. Despite your utterly proud Colonial appearence you really are quite a gentleman. Ment in the deepest respect.
I've already contributed my two bits elsewhere by suggesting that you cooperate with my compatriot Anders Puck Nielsen, as the only improvement I can imagine.
And your Great War references touched me deeply. As a Dane I lost family from the Danish minority of Southern German Jutland forced into and dying in Imperial German Forces on the Western Front. And gained some grandfathers with shellshock.
Lest we forget. Imagine that it takes an Aussie to remind me.
Tears in my eyes.
And sending more funds, over and beyond your promise. You don't have to excuse doing the honorable thing. I wish more people did.
As I said, dear Perun, you really seem to be much more of a gentleman than your broard, joke-cracking, Colonial irony lets on.
Bless you, lest we all forget doing honorable thing to our ability.
ruclips.net/video/7rBlVnc_DEw/видео.html
Your videos have really been the "game changer" when it comes to conflict RUclips this past year. Thanks for making every Sunday exciting.
I'd argue there's still room for a 3rd episode of this series as we've still not covered Patriot, Neptune, KA-52, HARM, and with F16 still on the way.
Neptune: Prevented Ruzzian fleet from threatening the southern coast with gunfire or invasion. Arguably a “game changer” to the extent that it made a seaborne invasion unrealistic.
KA-52: Very useful for Ruzzia in opposing Ukraine’s counteroffensive in summer of 2023. But the reason it was able to be so effective was the minefields slowing down the advance and forcing tanks and AVs to move slowly in column formation, and sometimes disabling them. Ukraine moved air defenses closer to the front and changed tactics to compensate for this (and the minefields in general). Prior to this, the Ka-52 was just a pretty good attack helicopter that was only available in very small numbers, and 70% of them have been lost. The game changer was deep/dense minefields, not helicopters.
HARM: Useful, but limited when used from MiGs because it can’t operate in its most effective modes due to incompatibility, and doesn’t have the targeting advantage of better Western radars and radar warning systems. This should become much more effective when used with F-16s.
F-16: Too early to tell, but it should be a difference maker. It will allow Ukraine to strike back at the Ruzzian fighters that have been taking pot shots across the border, and it will enable Ukraine to use NATO weapons much more effectively. While the models Ukraine is getting aren’t the most updated, they’re far better than Ukraine’s 1980s vintage Mig 29s and better than most Ruzzian aircraft when you look at actual performance and not just advertised maximum Ruzzian specs under very particular idealized conditions.
@@bluemarlin8138 f-16 are technologically more advanced than like 90% of the Russian airforce so it should just slap the shit out of them
@@augustuslunasol10thapostle that's a claim, not a proven fact. And you would be wise not to underestimate the enemy, never.
Plus, the F-16 will likely not face the Russian fighters, but the Russian AA defence system and network...
@@bluemarlin8138agree the f26 will not be a game changer but will will cancel out Russian airforce overmatch.
@@knoll9812Provided they come with at least AIM-120C7s. The D model is our crown jewel so there's no way they're getting that one.
And chances are the F-16s will be used mostly for DCA close to Kyiv and CAS for frontline troops.
That picture of the mobile tank jammer. Covering everything with ERA isn't a meme, it's a way of life. The cope cage has ERA. No idea how effect it is, but that is really packing on the kg.
I wouldn't mind a dedicated episode on the super basics like MRE, field kitchens, boots armour, boots, and its evolution. Or how logistics works, how do you coordinate getting something where Amazon won't deliver.
Thank you for your hard work Perun, you taught me so much about logistics and military procurement. Keep it up power point man 👍
As a counterargument, e could say that javelins and TB2s were a game changer simply because they allowed the war to go beyond the first few weeks. Without those systems, Using would have been quickly defeated and never have gotten the lukewarm support it currently enjoys.
I believe Javelins, employed in high numbers, single handedly saved Ukraine. A few infantry with Javelins in a platoon can take out a whole armored column with tens of millions worth of equipment, and experienced personnel, which is insane.
Great vid Aussie. Keep up the great work. #StandWithKiwiland #StopEmuAggression
#Emuland: #IndoctrinatesDeepSleeperAssasinDucks. #InsertsIntoKiwilandAtNightByStealthDolphin.😅
“The economic efficiency of setting money on fire, so Spacemail would probably raise billions from investors”😂
How to destroy venture capital in one simple sentence
There's been a surprising amount of attempts at mail by rocket. I think it was The History Guy who made a good video about it.
@@apc9714 the only problem is sometimes they get it right...and that sometimes can make them rich.
Thank you, Beau of the fifth column, for recommending this channel at the beginning of the war.
And thank you Perun, for your reporting and analysis on this war, with clarity and detail in depth.
Slava Ukraini!
Yes, a 1 hour ppp for my Sunday, love it 🎉 Thx for dilligent work. And may Denmark and all the free world step up support for Ukraine and sactions against Putin’s state
🇩🇰. We'll do what we can. F-16 crews training in Denmark as we speak. And could have been a year ago, had the US allowed.🇩🇰
Eh? Denmark is one of the countries that has done the most.
Vi spilder vores tid og skattekroner på en krig der ikke er vores i hver forstand. Er selv halv ukrainer med rødder i Odessa. Amerikanerne ejer os og tvinger os ud i en situation hvor alt først bliver ensformigt i sådan grad det via diverse markedsmekanismer kan manipuleres til at der er så stor forskel mellem rig og fattig at middelklassen nærmest udryddes, og hvem er så vores ubetingede overlords? De få amerikanere som havde midlerne til at bestikke, undskyld, jeg mener “lobby”, deres politikere. Disse politikere bestemmer i forvejen hvad Brussels politikere har at skulle have sagt, hvilket vi ofte i forvejen brokker os over- se dog det større billede for helvede.
@@PalleRasmussenmaybe he is from Denmark himself and starts with his own country?
@@sjonnieplayfull5859 if he is, he knows very little. As I wrote; Denmark is amongst those that has done the most.
"Whenever Theory and Practice go up against each other, Practice has a way of yanking the book out of Theory's hands, and punching him in the face."
Loved the video! I am surprised to hear that the medical video was not received as well as your usual videos. I really enjoyed it. As always thank you and the team for all the hard work!
It's an accepted military phenomenon that medical is not a primary focus and always takes the back seat to other systems unless the saving of life is the actual mission in a country's decided commitment to a war effort
While I'm interested in the subject, I'll admit I didn't watch that video for a reason that maybe others will share: it has to mention that people are hurt in war.
While sounds like stating the obvious, but issues remain victimless crimes until faces are put to them.
Even when talking about things that go boom and knowing that "going boom" often will mean dead and injured people, there's still a comfortable level of distance away. You can talk about them in terms of efficacy for dollars and destroyed equipment and enemies routed. Bone-shattering injuries and violent deaths aren't necessary to account for.
Western Australian here. About to eat dinner when this dropped.
Perfect timing.
I'm Irish, just finished a late breakfast
i am greek and just finished eating lunch
Such information is crucial to armed conflicts and wars, i am a former soldier trained by NAT0 and EU officials trainers, they gave us adequate and efficient training that can help to fights effectively, conventional war has changed into electronic warfare drones and unmanned, thank you perun for the great contribution, appreciated much.
Perception is weird - this wasn't a topic that I voted for, so I was instinctively disappointed to see that it was the video of the week. At the same time there hasn't been a Perun video I didn't like - so I just have to get over my tribalism, sit back, and enjoy the powerpoint like always
I'd nominate counter-battery radar as one of the most consequential systems not yet mentioned (and general). Lots of enemy tubes have been going away. Hard to say how much of this is friendly ISR vs counter battery radar, but it's clearly a major factor.
Well, this is going to be fairly intense. As we came out of the GWOT with a whole lot of preconceived ideas, Ukraine turned everything on its head as a whole other type of warfare. A weird mix of WW1 with Vietnam era soviet armour, smart phones, missile campaigns and off the shelf drones to show everyone just how crazy it can get.
Radar synced Tachanka when?
@@randomwarehouse4702 When Ukraine hauled out the twin linked Maxim guns with a red-dot on them, we might have reached peak milsurp... course, trusting soldiers with horse drawn anything is enough to give me a deep seated, somewhat irrational fear of what happens next
I think we sometimes get carried away with this. The war in Ukraine is very much shaped by Ukrainian and Russian capabilities. Especially strong GBAD paired with weak SEAD/DEAD.
It seems like people draw over-broad conceptions about warfare from any given conflict.
@@deriznohappehquite Its somewhat vastly different from the air-superiority and in some cases, complete air dominance that happens in western doctrine. Like even in smaller western military forces the airforce tends to have a fairly massive budget set aside for capable aircraft.Even down here in the south seas banana bending country of Australia we dump a lot of cash into the airforce and its subsequent weapon systems hanging off them.
I won't say its shocking, but it is a little jarring that things like SPAAG has come back with a vengeance when it was all but considered largely outdated 30 years ago and there hadn't been much time given to it in terms of R&D. There's still some trickling in with various companies like Rhinemetal but not nearly as much as say, MANPAD's get funded, but they're still popular in Russia as combination gun-missile systems. In their own way as anti-drone systems, I suspect they might get a bit more attention given to them by the western MIC as a budget-oriented solution to keeping drones out of your airspace.
@@randomwarehouse4702what about FT-17 with C-RAM turret?
"Like the time Ukrainian troops, reportedly, took down a Russian quadrotor through the high-tech expedient of throwing a stick at it... As far as I can tell, there's no available data on whether or not it was a NATO-supplied stick, but no doubt the use of such dangerous and advanced weapons on the battlefield can only lead to further escalation. "
Time for the Australians to start supplying sticks
Boomerangs!
@@tarmor21 Err we prefer to call them reusable s'tralian patriots.
Babe! Wake up! The new Perun just dropped!
This has to be one of the best videos. Genuinely informative, thoughtful and entertaining.
Cheers.
I am reminded of the critical nature of accurate adjustable wrist watches with see in the dark hands during WWI. Because without them a great deal of offensive combined arms arty tactics were useful.
Commenting just for the RUclips algorithms because I don't know how else to thank you for these deep dives and incredibly insightful analysis. Keep going, and thank you.
I think one of the things that’s missing from this series are counter battery radar. Those systems have allowed Ukraine to achieve artillery parity or even temporary artillery superiority when engaging in combat operations with the Russians. It is Ukrainian counter battery that is halting russian offensive operations.
Brilliantly articulated. Carry on Mr Perun.
Thanks again for your amazing work. You make my sunday worth it again and again
I fall asleep every night to perun videos. That’s not a draft of how boring he is, it’s a testament to how great his videos are. The absolute 🐐
Thank you for another great video and greetings from Finland.
It is a "what if" and there are multiple problems with it, but I would like a video from you for What if stuff would have been provided earlier and in greater numbers.
Many many people with myself included have been annoyed of how slowly capabilities have been provided to Ukraine and in how small numbers. There must also be historical cases of armies looking back at conflicts and assessing what they should have done differently and those would be interesting to hear too.
Strip your own military bare to send somewhere else to be destroyed and watch your local foreign policy problems suddenly start to get worse. Would hamas have launched the attack into Israel if the US hadn't have had all eyes on Europe? Every nation with interests across the globe would start to see their influence eroded particularly where strategically critical resources are concerned. France and its uranium consumption for instance
@@jamesgornall5731There's a seed of truth in what you say, but it makes big leaps in logic.
I recommend watching the episode from Perun about Finland and there was decent amount mentioned in one of the recent ones too but which, escapes my mind.
Finland has sent a lot of stuff to Ukraine despite having comparable border with Russia with fraction of the population. We have also been maintaining defense and increasing it too. Our focus is to turtle things out and not power projection.
On USA and its gaze: They try to focus on the whole globe and looking at the situation and history of Gaza, it seems that this sort of thing was inevitable. Desperation and no solution in sight. Taking advantage of distraction is definitely a thing though.
I would like to send a moment cursing France but I'll pass on it for now. Strategic resources and uranium do not mix that well for how abundant uranium is. Extraction of it through is highly concentrated mainly for political reasons. There are good videos on uranium reserves on the internet if you are interested.
@@jamesgornall5731 France has enough uranium stored within it's borders for decades of operating all their reactors, not to mention diversified sources. All the idiot journalists proclaiming a disaster over losing 30% of your imports of something that you can get from hundreds of sources readily and have stores of that will last for decades is ridiculus.
Uranium is not oil. You don't need a lot of it (by weight/volume), and it's source isn't concentrated to a few geographical areas like oil.
This one is easy : there are many, many factors that put together can actually explain the apparently slow deliveries to Ukraine.
First was the uncertainty. A lot of Western commentators predicted a very rapid fall of Ukraine under the mighty boots of the unstoppable red army, in like 3 weeks-ish. While those people were not in the military chain, and definitely talked out of their behind, they were kind of right about the perceived strengths of the 2 belligerents (is that the correct term in English ?) And giving a lot of equipment to a country that was going to be invaded meant arming the invader with possibly some of your high tech last toys, or just more ammunition and guns... Never a great plan ;)
Second, there were deliveries that were not publicly disclosed at the time. From what I know, France delivered some equipments before the 2022 invasion, after the 2014 invasion and annexation of Crimea (that is still lost for Ukraine to this day). Helmets and body armours, ammunition and ATGMs. That only became public after a year of conflict, but was not incorporated in the figures of "deliveries for Ukraine" of the 2022-23 (and soon 24) war in Ukraine. If other countries did the same, I don't know about.
The non divulgations of those deliveries was also a way to try to keep open channels (for France) with Russia, to try to appease Putin and avoid conflict escalation as much as possible. From past history, we know what happens when a country feels isolated and desperate after a war in Europe (Germany after WW1, for example)
This have France a bad press in the Slavic countries because they believed France was showing signs of "pro-Russia attitude", while it was actually trying to prevent war. It failed, but at least Macron tried, even if Putin was in fact just playing him.
Third, there is the issue of availability of materiels. When your army is just mostly stationed in your home country, you can actually give some unused equipments to an ally in need. But some armies are heavily deployed outside. Again, France as an example. At the time, more than 50% of its armies were deployed in operation (anti-piracy on Eastern African coats, several missions in the middle-east and west Africa, protection of its outerseas territories...) it was using its equipment extensively and only had in reserve, well its reserves for time of crisis. It had to evaluate what they could spend (for how long before it was replaced) and what they just really needed. Again, some countries may have had the same issues, but some didn't (like Germany) and still took their sweet time to agree to give anything.
Because fourth, those equipments are expensive and sometimes are the best high tech pieces a country can produce. You don't want to give that to anyone for free, especially when the technology inside is cutting edge and took a lot of time and investment to develop and master. There are some indication that the new ATGMs and SRAA missiles developed by Ukraine are in fact copies of equipments they received, disassembled and copied. That means IP is being stolen and it is pretty clear that this new modern missiles (and more, like thermal or IR sights) will be exported at a very competitive cost, no R&D having to be reimbursed, basically cutting the market shares (and the survival) of the company that provided the original equipments.
Fifth, I'm sure there are more reasons, but I need to read what I wrote again (on my mobile) to avoid repeating myself too much XD...
@@stitch77100 yes, this
I think weapons are only game changing when introduced in sufficient quantity and variety. You cannot just dump a bunch of machine guns to whom before were civvies 5 minutes ago and expect their combat efficiency to go up drastically, are they more effective in combat? Sure, but they're still fresh, unskilled and would most likely still fail at attacking once their enemy readjust their threat assessments and strategy. Giving them training, logistics, tanks, body armors, intelligence and equipment and they might commence a successful attack.
Look at us Germans in WW2...V2 rocket, first assault rifle, Tiger tank etc. but not in sufficient quantity and with to much variety which makes repair and maintenance difficult..
@@ravanpee1325tiger was an over rated overweight POS, no amount of them would have helped
@@ravanpee1325 and quite often deployed before the flaws in the initial design were worked out.
@@Rellana1And the production of which was vastly enabled by ten to twelve million forced and slave laborers using stolen materials from their conquered territories.
@@stevewhite3424 And that's relevant to this discussion how? The guys on the battlefield (on either side) aren't likely to waste their time evaluating the weapon system on how (im)moral the production process is. It's not like the Allies shirked from using slave soldiers; yes, it's euphemized as 'the draft' and 'conscription,' but it's still forcing people into a deadly situation they didn't choose.
Whenever I hear One of Perun's jokes, I cannot help but imagine him in a massive lecture hall briefing military officials and all of them doing little Beavis & Buttthead laughs.
Yesterday was Armistice Day, when the Entente Cordiale signed an armistice with the remaining Central Power, bringing the fighting to an end on the Western Front. Didn't end the war though in practical terms, certainly for people basically anywhere east of the Rhine.
I also had the opportunity to hold a pistol for the first time. They are rather heavier than you probably think they are, about a kilogram for a fairly small object. A couple of other semi automatic rifles as well, and for the first time used a sling with it. The range turned out to be closed so we had to go back and lock the guns up again but at least it was good practice for my muscle memory to always keep tabs on where you point the gun and keeping your finger off the trigger. It seems though that some Russian politicians need to learn this lesson.
Very eloquently put.
Perfect timing
There was a time when a powerpoint presentation was guaranteed to send me to sleep. Now, I can't wait for Perun's presentations.
Getting close to half a million subscribers! and well deserved! Your content is top notch as always!
And yea, hard agree on the EWAR being a gamechanger, similar to a laser-based hardkill system (if/when it exists), both bring the cost of an interception down massively to help fight against asymmetric threats
Brilliant analysis. Grateful the Aussies on our side. If we tap this.
As a sensor operator in a military life all be it a different type of sensors (acoustic) and a network guy in civilian life I found this interesting and in some ways validating. As usual a very well done and informative video, D72A, (any Collins class friends can explain)
If memory serves, i caught your first Ukrainian War video within 48 hours of upload. Thank you for maintaining your focus on this existential confilct. Unfortunately, i sense that viewership figures per episode will correlate with munitions made available. As a barstool cynic muttered to me ... 'a dirty bomb outside the Hermitage Museum is worth more than 30,000 Ukrainian light infantry.' Russian costs in this war must quickly become both undeniable and extreme. 'Rus' of legend is only ever defeated from the inside out
I would like to say, that the smartphone is a gamechanger as well. Never has it been easier to share information. Never has it been easier to violate OpSec. Never was it possible to be at war and skype home. Never was it easier to make, produce and distribute propaganda.
Also it enables the most drones to work properly.
Thank you for giving us an update on charitable donations. I very much appreciate your transparency.
Perun I must inform you that as an honorary Aussie, my wife is gonna send me back to the US if I stay up late again due to these uploads. Please mate, I kinda like it here.
Get reset to lose your assets. I married a Ukrainian in Ukraine and kept her there, because Australian women are notorious for destroying your wealth then taking 25 percent of your income until kids are 18
Gonna watch your medical vid now because you mentioned it. Thanks for being transparent and thanks for your content Perun!!! Been sharing you far and wide since you started making Ukraine content
First from Pennsylvania, Cheers brother
I was so close to beating you Tor
this is like that one class in college I scheduled in the morning because I actually loved starting my day with it
Have you considered uploading these as audios on podcast apps? Me and many other listen to them in the background, and some podcast apps give much better ad revenue than RUclips.
Thank you, dude. I'm learning so much. I appreciate you sharing your expertise with us so much.
As usual, an amazing analysis.
“Game changer” is one of those terms that doesn’t have a specific meaning and is used depending on the context. On one hand and at the highest level, it applies to things that change the very nature of war and may not be directly obvious. Consider railroads. The book “Engines of War” describes how the introduction of rail in the nineteen century had a major impact on how wars were fought and logistics affecting both tactical and strategic doctrine. I’m not sure if there is an equivalent in this war unless you consider general surveillance capabilities (Satellite, drone, video). Not only are the combatants able to see where the adversary is in real time, but to have large amounts of information about the effectiveness of their efforts. Essentially this is the first “smartphone war”.
Game changers also may have a shelf life as the opponents adapt to their introduction. German submarines ran rampant in WWII until the introduction of counter measures such as Huff-Duff and Hedgehog mortars. I don’t think they make them any less of a game changer because of that because it does force the opponent to counter them or to employ it themselves.
Sometimes the game doesn’t change abruptly. The introduction of the tank in WWI didn’t really change the game until WWII nor did the airplane. Even in WWII horses were being used to haul artillery, though the day of the horse cavalry had passed with the introduction of machine guns and armor.
Subs were really more of a game-changer in WWI than WWII. Of course they had a great effect in WWII as well, but everyone knew they were a threat due to the experience with them in WWI. The reason they ran wild in 1941 is that Britain was counting on having France’s navy covering the Med, and allowing the Royal Navy to focus on the Atlantic. It also didn’t think it was going to have to fight Japan, at least not so soon. Britain had enough escorts for the scenario it planned for, just not for the one it ended up facing. And even still, Britain was never close to being out of WWII because of the u-boats. However, it really was about 60 days from being knocked out of WWI in 1917 due to the u-boats before improved countermeasures plus US involvement turned the tide.
time for the weekly dose of powerpoint lecture!
i can always count on your videos to give a level-headed take on things :)
31:00 correction: it was found that during high seas during a storm the moskva's air defense simply didn't recognize wave top missiles inbound. the 'distraction' is literally a 'red herring'
Finally, the PowerPoint Sunday!
Thank you, Perun
It’s genuinely insane that Russia failed to destroy TB2s immediately after the war started. By all means the TB2 isn’t a bad drone but it should have been rocked by any modern army with solid air defense.
Russia's problem was their success oriented approach in the opening days. All those columns hit by TB2 does drones were advancing, as ordered, in 'administrative columns' - what you do when driving around your own territory in peace time. There was no air defence because they were told that the only things flying in the sky would be Russian. Why? Because they assumed the initial air and missile strikes, plus airlifted VDV units, would destroy and disrupt Ukrainian forces to the extent that these columns would face no resistance (and be greeted as liberators).
The really shocking thing is just how long it took for them to react to reality and accept that none of this was actually the case.
Because if tank and helo rushes are working in Wargame/HoI then it must work IRL, right? RIGHT!? :)
@@090giver090 lol
@@PhillS303And if Ruzzia were to ever do something really stupid and start a war with NATO, I suspect it would TRY to go into it with air defenses ready, only to find that those air defenses really don’t work that well when your enemy has hundreds/thousands of stealth aircraft, thousands of cruise missiles and rocket artillery rounds, and world-leading EW capabilities and signals/satellite intel.
@@bluemarlin8138 lmao even nato itself admitted that it could do NOTHING against a direct russian invasion, keep coping i guess
Whoa, bs-free, unbiased and extremely information-dense stuff. Applauds!
"Have to wait for the sequel a couple of decades later"
My first laugh of the day
Outstanding. This is a must watch for anyone wanting to understand why the war is evolving in manner it has.
I'd argue that another vital layer contributing to battlefield transparency and enabling the kill chains is the communications software. Ukraine has things like Kropyva and Delta that allow drone operators and other intelligence assets to relay found enemy positions and units to commanders and artillery teams in a clear, precise, and swift manner, so that the new information can immediately be integrated into the larger battlefield picture, and acted upon.
Just as I'm going to sleep, will be watching later when I cook dinner. Thank you for all the excellent reporting thus far
Sleep tight.
A humble Smartphone can be considered a game changer considering how it effects information warfare.
Given Russia's failure to take out telecommunication infrastructure in the opening days, smartphones WERE a game changer. Every civilian with a phone was an intelligence agent.
"And, of course, if you have the information gathering and network, but no or insufficient fires, well then you might learn everything there is to know about a potential threat, and not be able to do anything about it. Sorry if that hits a bit clsoe to home for any academics in the audience." You called it, close to home & story of my life.
I'd be interested in an entire video on electronic warfare if you can find enough material for a full video. It's such a crucial part of the new way of war but there's really not a lot of content about it out there.
So would I! I've even emailed Perun directly asking him to :)
Your content remains of incredible value.Thank you.
An unverified comment i saw somewhere claimed that the reason Russia is willing to modify MiG-31s for ground attack is because they have a shortage of components to repair the radar system and so the platforms can’t be used in the traditional manner.
Excellent. Always look forward to new episodes. Bravo Aussie 🥳
Bloody good show from the Prince of Power Point! 👍👍
#Correction... #EmperorOfPowerPoint. We upgraded his formal title of (MS) Office ages ago.
Thank you for the video, Perun
I think it's dangerous to underestimate militarily (or para) repurposed commercial, even consumer or prosumer grade processing and sensor hardware. A crapton of this stuff is plenty capable of serving thst purpose, and it's usually very easily available in very large quantities. The large userbase often mean most kinks are already ironed out, open source software and firmwares make it fairly easy to repurpose, and there's thousands of commecial supply channels that can be exploited ad manipulated even under heavy sanctions.
In contrast, domestically assembled military grade stuff can be much more difficult to keep up, because most countries don't produce the discrete components, there's hundreds of types going into many designs, and you might be stuck for months or years if you lose access to any number if them because many of those chips are special purpose and often very low volume, making it much "easier" to restrict access in practice because there might only be one or a few manufacturer and no real dual purpose. This is obviously a simplified and on the nose example - but while you can probably redesign and find a way to rework around the issues with military special design - finding someone else to sell you a few thousand raspberry pis a week is probably much faster and easier. Especially if you grase some palms, or just use take 2 days to transition to some of the many dozens of chinese spinoffs.
I've been checking my subscriptions all day waiting for this.
With regards to Starlink. Not only would Russian's attacking the satellites be an act of war, but you also have to attack many of them to have anything more than a minimal effect. Maybe even thousands of them, depending on what you are trying to do. Meanwhile SpaceX is launching them at a rate that is probably about 40ish / week. Until Starship comes online, then it will be hundreds / week.
Furthermore, SpaceX appears to be winning the cyber war. The poor Russian hackers who can't win against a private company. 😂
@@florianschneider3982don't laugh too hard from what the US military personnel allow to view spaceXs war room it's highly likely that the US wouldn't be able to break the system either. Without the ability to physically capture the staff and equipment
@@alanrickett2537 Interesting. Can you give me a source for this?
@@florianschneider3982 sorry only public source I have seen was near the start of the war when a US service man( General I think)was interviewed about starlink and he was saying they are doing things in real-time with have never even thought of we have a lot to learn , this was of course before either musk went insane or the democrats black listed him for not being woke and pro union.
@@alanrickett2537No need to break into the system as many back doors have already been built in.
These videos have grown to become a staple of my weekends! I find them enormously informative and entertaining! Keep up the great work 👍
Thing is though there have been no game changers really. I think things like hypersonic weapons will ultimately make a difference if they can be produced at scale but if you assess the war as a whole you can see it is still down to time honoured elements like logistics, strategic resources and an industrial base. Same reason why the Germans lost on the eastern front really. They picked a fight with an enemy who had access to basically limitless strategic resources and an industrial base. That's what counts not wunderwaffe.
Russia converted 10 valuable MIG-31 in order to fire Kinzhal missiles - of which they produce only 4 per month. That is... interesting. Even by Russian standards.
Thank you for this, and most meaningful ending of your channel update closeouts so far: lest we forget.
I feel like it's probably just an assumption that if there's a bunker or building or something it's going to have a large concentration of a high ranking officers.. as is tradition in Russia, something about the Pacific fleet in the Soviet era.. giant roll of paper.. something something.. etc..
Perun, how are you managing to post so many hour long, researched and relevant, videos? Bravo.
It's important to remember that when David fought Goliath, he was using a tried and true guided missile launcher system that was effective to mass produce and supply ammo for.
The missile launcher David used had an unguided projectile. It was the equivalent of an RPG-7.
I simply love these kinds of video discussions even if you didn't talk about hypersonic magic markers, steal ballpoint pens, or the complete elimination of can openers from modern MREs.
Brilliant as per usual. One gets used to excellence far too easily. I have the greatest respect for the effort it takes to create the analysis and then translate it into such accessible presentation.
This is in my top 5 Parun Military Economics Slideshows! Thank you for covering the topic!