Hypersonic Weapons: Overhyped or Superweapons? - threats, challenges & has the USA fallen behind?
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- Опубликовано: 20 июн 2024
- Besides atomic ordnance, perhaps no weapon system commands public and media attention like hypersonics. No other weapon, when used in Ukraine, is basically guaranteed to command a news cycle.
And yet their importance is hotly debated. There are those who argue the US has fallen behind in an absolutely critical field of military technology - and likewise others who argue the entire class of systems represent an overhyped waste of money.
In this episode I try and provide at least an introduction to that multi-billion dollar question...
Patreon:
/ perunau
Caveats and corrections:
All usual caveats with an additional note that we're talking about ongoing, often deeply classified programs, so information quality is notably spotty
Sources & Reading:
Congressional Budget Office on Hypersonics:
www.cbo.gov/publication/58255
CRS on hypersonic weapons:
sgp.fas.org/crs/weapons/R4581...
CRS on Hypersonic Defence:
s3.documentcloud.org/document...
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs:
gjia.georgetown.edu/2021/01/2...
RT on Avangard:
www.rt.com/news/476985-avanga...
ARRW cancellation:
www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone...
2022 Missile defence Review
media.defense.gov/2022/Oct/27...
TASS on Killjoy range:
tass.com/defense/1013794
Putin says Russia leading hypersonics
apnews.com/article/vladimir-p...
Missile Defence Project listing the range:
missilethreat.csis.org/missil...
Raytheon Glide-Phase-Interceptor
www.raytheonmissilesanddefens...
Fars News on IRGC missile claim:
www.farsnews.ir/en/news/14011...
Bulletin of Atomic Scientists on Hypersonics:
thebulletin.org/2020/01/hyper...
CSIS - Complex air defence
csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaw...
Northrop Grumman HBTSS
www.northropgrumman.com/wp-co...
Lora Saalman Ph.D - PROMPT GLOBAL STRIKE:
CHINA AND THE SPEAR
dkiapcss.edu/wpcontent/upload...
Phoenix Testbed project:
www.nasa.gov/centers/dryden/h...
Media saying the US is behind on hypersonics:
www.forbes.com/sites/davedept...
CSIS - Chinese FOBS capability
www.iiss.org/online-analysis/...
Alan Cummings - Hypersonic weapons tactical uses and goals
warontherocks.com/2019/11/hyp...
Reporting on cost of CPS rounds:
defensescoop.com/2023/03/22/n...
S-500 Reporting:
www.janes.com/amp/russia-begi...
Reporting on HALO:
www.navalnews.com/event-news/...
defensescoop.com/2023/04/03/n...
CPS Reporting:
www.thedefensepost.com/2023/0...
www.navalnews.com/event-news/...
Russian media on Sarmat:
sputnikglobe.com/20220522/rus...
PRC team claim reliable communications with Hypersonic object:
www.scmp.com/news/china/scien...
DOT&E Report 2022
www.dote.osd.mil/Portals/97/p...
Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Hypersonic Weapons
00:01:24 - What Am I Talking About?
00:02:33 - What Are They?
00:11:44 - Advantages & Defensive Challenges
00:19:26 - The Problems & Costs (Technical)
00:28:08 - The Problems & Costs (Mission)
00:38:01 - Defensive Options
00:45:15 - National Programs: Russia
00:55:06 - National Programs: PRC
00:58:43 - National Programs: USA
01:06:07 - The State of Competition
01:10:45 - Conclusions
01:11:51 - Channel Update
![Lainey Wilson - Out of Oklahoma (From Twisters: The Album) [Official Music Video]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/1TsZH__etDA/mqdefault.jpg)
Apologies for overturning democracy and changing the topic order, but I think coming out with this now and Ukraine later was the right choice.
As for this topic, I say it in the video but a takeaway I want to emphasise here is that how important existing hypersonics are depends a lot on two things we don't have much information about:
1) How do they actually perform (of all the systems we talk about, only Kinzahl has been seriously observed under combat conditions)
2) How many of them can there practically be?
The US fired hundreds of cruise missiles in 1991, Russia has exhausted multiple waves of PGMs against Ukraine - so keep that in mind when thinking about what might realistically be achieved with the very limited arsenals currently believed to be in service.
Democracy is ded. Rip.
But overall, its good! We understand, it is what it is.
Yay Perun's video again! Weekly milestone.
Thank you!
ASSUMING DIRECT CONTROL...
I think I can cope with the change
Who votes matters less than who counts the votes.
Steel beams don't have to melt to fail AND the earth is round? Some people are learning a lot today
… unless they refuse to.
Steel beam?
@@kwilson5877 like skyscraper support frames, "jet fuel doesn't melt steel beams" is a something conspiracy theorists use to "prove" 9/11 was an inside job. He disproved that theory with basic physics by stating that steal beams don't need to melt to collapse a skyscraper
@@kwilson5877 Stupid conspiracy theory that the 9/11 terrorist attack on the World Trade Center was an inside job because the combustion temperature of jet fuel isn't high enough to melt steel beams therefore the collapse of the building couldn't have been caused solely by the passenger jet crashing into the building. This completely ignores the fact that if steel gets hot, like if it were covered in burning jet fuel, it softens and cannot support as much weight before collapsing, even without melting into a puddle.
@@kwilson5877 The myth that, because the burning jetfuel of airplanes could not have melted the steel beams supporting the World Trade Centre, it was some ridiculous inside job
As a veteran, years of my life have been wasted sitting through pointless and tedious PowerPoint presentations. For me to be excited for an hour long PP presentation speaks volumes about your work. Thank you.
So much death-by-powerpoint. 10 years ago I never would have believed I'd actively look forward to a weekly powerpoint presentation. And yet, a newfound respect for the medium has grown.
Same here, but I would argue if I had a briefer with Perun's sense of humor and accent it wouldn't have been nearly as bad.
I feel like you could’ve worded it differently, especially “For me to be excited by an hour long PP presentation”
@@spess4804 Ah! Someone got it!
Might be useful to mention this to your former officers.
Actually the Javelin has a range of over 7'500 KM since it has been delivered from america to ukraine and used there to destroy tanks.
This makes me sad. By placing our country in a bad spot Sweden has limited the range of an NLAW to a mere 1267km. Those are rookie numbers compared to the superior Javelin . Does this mean that cargo ships and trucks count as launch vehicles?
@@macharim don't worry, you can always deliver NLAWs to South Korea to increase the range
Simply drive your trucks in circles a few hundred times to extend the range.
@@macharim You simply need to start a proxy-war in East Asia and supply NLAWs there.
@@Appletank8 Bonus: That's good for the GDP too!
You know a program is expensive when the B-2 and B-21 are called "far cheaper alternatives"
Yep. A hypersonic missile is roughly as expensive as a fighter plane.
@@bluemarlin8138 roughly as expensive and single use.
@@bluemarlin8138 tbf tho, if we want a more comprehensive comparison, a fighter jet's initial purchase price gets dwarfed pretty quickly by lifetime costs. The CBO estimates a 12 plane F-35A squadron costs 670 million USD per year, that's around 55 mil per plane to operate (140 in "direct" costs are ones from the combat unit, 230 in "indirect" costs from supporting units, 310 in "overhead" which is administrative).
A B-2 squad is at 2 billion annually.
By way of comparison, a Minuteman squadron (aka ICBM squadron) is at 520 mil, which is one of the closest equivalents I could find to what could be annual costs for a hypersonic vehicle keeping in mind a nuclear weapon needs a lot more costs in making sure the weapons are secure, communications are rock solid, radioactive shit isn't leaking everywhere and needs an expensive silo that could plausibly survive a nuclear blast (for second strike).
www.cbo.gov/publication/57088
@@chinguunerdenebadrakh7022 The F-35 costs less to operate per hour than many 4th-gen fighters. The high price of the initial deployment cost per flight-hour is as misleading as the unit cost of the first production units. F-35B excluded, perhaps. The -B is like a helicopter vs. a fixed-wing aircraft in complexity.
@@Markle2k You're gonna have to take it up the Congressional Budget Office, they calculated it. Btw, F-35A has the same "direct" annual costs as a F-15 (both 140 per squadron), it's only the indirect and overhead that drives it up (400 total for F-15, 680 for F-35).
Yay, PowerPoint time!🎉
Yhay
Pp
Words I never, ever thought I'd agree with, but here we are!
📊😍📈
Hell yeah!
"And so if the only thing you are worried about is speed, then Yuri Gagarin was actually a hypersonic payload." That had me dying Lol
How does one say, “Damn straight!” in Russian?
But completely true by that standard! I love it!
In Soviet Union, hypersonic missile is you!
@@robland3253 that’s it - you win.
A clever comment, but if this had you dying of laughter perhaps therapy would be in order.
Poor Pvt. Conscriptivich. On one hand, he is simultaneously the most lucky and unlucky person in hypothetical existence. On one hand, he is given all the worst jobs and tools, but on the other hand, he always makes it out alive regardless of whether the mission was a success or not.
"Just like in training video!"
"shoot them like watermelon"
Luckily, Private Conscriptovich has Sergeant Bicepski to keep him safe!
In mother Russia only the state make it out alive.
He needs to learn from Pvt. Kleptomaniacovich and make some money off of stealing copper wire
The us developments remind me very much of the f15 program, where it was developed to outclass something they thought might exist, but ended up dramatically outdoing the reality of that threat
The result of which is still one hell of a weapons system
That is certainly possible, but I prefer that everyone remains righteously scared until we are very certain of our lethality.
@@jmlatimer That kind of "over-future-proofing" is one of the reasons F-15 is still a relatively contemporary platform.
If you're going to make something, might as well make it right the first time.
Like the SR71, F-117A and F-22 which all been at least a decade ahead of any rival planes. But I guess that times of glory are over. US schools and universities are a joke outside the US now and from the 10 most famous research facilities on this planet 0/10 are in the US and 10/10 are in China.😂
Perun would say that China specs in tech while the US specs in nothing.😂
When more than 66% of defence spending goes into Wallstreet your military gets really expensive.
Avangard has one huge benifit, the money allocated for it can be syphoned of to produce some really impressive yachts, without the shortcomings of a actual weapons system having to be deployed _and failing_ in combat.
It would only be used in a WW3 scenario, and the traditional ICBM's can do the mission while the yacht owners don't have to worry about the repercussions of the program not living up to the hype... on a dead planet.
This 💯
Here is the problem with this.
Avangard goes on existing ICBM (the one whose core reason to exist is because Russia can't maintain their current SS-18s). Instead of 10 MIRVs it's 1 Avangard.
@@Poctyk yeah, but who's going to end the world? All our yachts are there!
Hey man, I get paid a whole lot of money to work maintenance on those boats.
Trickle-Down economics are REAL!
@@malloc7108 A lot of them have been impounded. Maybe their owners think the world is no longer worth living in.
"If you have mastered really advanced technology, like boats"
I love your sense of humor
I hit that part and nearly had coffee coming out of my nose ;)
3000 fishing boats of Japan
@@richardarriaga6271 Japan is very deep in the navy tech tree
@@marcogenovesi8570 Russians once got freaked out over Japanese fishing boats... in the North Sea over 100 years ago. Turns out they were British fishing boats. May rank 2nd in Russian misadventures once the Ukraine war is done.
@@richardarriaga6271 They have good reasons to be freaked out by Japs, they nearly sunk their whole East fleet in Tsushima Strait back in the early 1900-ish. Russia has quite a few blunders over the years it's not straightforward to make a ranking
In regards to to the V2 Project mentioned in 4:52 in the video. They were absolutely the German Manhattan Project and they almost certainly cost as much. I had the honor of doing some volunteer work there with a Youth Camp. We spent 2 weeks clearing one of the bunkers for the project at the main V2 facillity. During that time we got pretty familiar with the entire project. Lets just say this. Germany cleared an entire island, so large it has 2 villages on it today, to the Project. They built hundreds of bunkers, fuel storage facillities, a top modern coal power plant (So modern the DDR would run it up until its collapse), roughly 9 years of funding, and research, railroad infrastructure, roughly 10,000 personnel to man the damn thing. And that was everything they granted only to the Peenemunde rocket site. This is not counting sites such as Mittlebau Dora. People think that the V2 rockets were some late war desperation project from the Germans. But that isn't the case. The Germans were investing heavily in Rocketry since 1936.
Because Germany wasn't allowed conventional artillery, they went with missiles instead. Initially it was an army project.
🤺🪖😉
Don't forget all the slave labor they worked to death in the process - several tens of thousands from what I remember
The missiles still weren't good for shit lol
@@treyebillups8602 Yeah. That's blunt, but pretty accurate. V1/V2 didn't really accomplish any useful strategic objective, despite being massive industrial scale R&D projects. Germany basically ended the war with a neat tech demo from their missile program. They didn't have a good way to get targets for it, and if they did the technology of the time wasn't very precise. So you could just kinda vaguely lob V2's at large cities and hope that had some strategic effect.
A modern military with GPS guidance and spy satellites to find targets would have a use for V2's. Germany didn't.
@@treyebillups8602 And thank god for that. Because what if they had been ? What if the Germans had found in their rocketry program what the US found in the Manhattan Project ? I shudder to think about that fate.
Hypersonic Blockchain - the ultimate military and private sector jargon initiative.
No one is talking about the most lethal weapon in the room - Perun's top-notch sense of deadpan humour...
The Earth is not flat :D
Flat earther: earth is flat!
Perun: then why can't we cover all airspace with one big radar?
Flat earther:
@@ericdavidson1043 ilö remember that one
Yeah, he really kills. ;-)
'Top-notch sense of deadpan humor'
He's an Aussie. It's what they do.
Aerospace engineer here, you did a great job of making the "rocket science" accessible to a wide audience. Thank you for your work!
Well, it's not brain surgery. ;-)
@@jamielondon6436 or rocket surgery
Another example of just heating metal to cause structural failure is the twin towers collapse on 9/11.
@@jamielondon6436 proud to have got that…
@@jamielondon6436 it's not music theory ;)
So 4 days after this video, a hypersonic was shot down... the Perun curse continues
As the video said. Kinzhal is not an actual hypersonic missile. It's an air launched ballistic missile.
@Dr. Osterman The Russians call it a hypersonic cruise missile, the public calls it a hypersonic cruise missile, fir all intense and purposes it is a hypersonic cruise missile.
@@fogrepairshipakashi5834 The experts doesn't though. That's the problem.
believed to be a patriot defensive system the culprit unless it’s a pure luck but very unlikely.
Only if you believe Ukrainian Propaganda! I note no photo was produced to demonstrate that the Patriot battery survived. That’s rather telling!
The fictitious nations of Emutopia and Kiwiland have truly developed a lot of lore. I'm still not entirely sure about the episode where they were all teleporting around like crazy but the nuclear deterrence scenario is much more at home and comfortable.
Fictitious?
@@garyc1384 No countries shaped like that exist.
Teleporting?
I've got to say: there hasn't been a single Peru defense video I haven't watched.
I'm always so happy about the new release.
I notice the same, in spite of having Perú in the channel name, there hasn't been a single video about Perú.
Same here
Just as meme, Perun should do a video about the defence posture of Peru.
Yup. Every one has been gold.
@@Icipher353 Or Llamatopia.
24:40 The SR-71 is just one of those planes that awes you even if you just set eyes on it, not even knowing what it can do. It's an instant "America, F-Yeah" moment.
Looks something Batman would use.
The part that blows my mind: it flew in the early 60's! Meaning it was designed in the late 50's.
@@CDSAfghan
Using imagination, slide rules and books of tables.
Most engineering problems can be overcome application with enough money. Don't recall if I heard that or its an original. Either way its true, however the practicality questions may torpedo the desire.
@@CDSAfghan From designing the first fighter to fly over 400 mph (P-38) to cruising at Mach 2 within less than 20 years is wack to think about from Kelly Johnson's experience
By far the single best , most descriptive , and easy-to-understand war historian I've ever indulged in!
Thanks
The US had a hypersonic surface to air missile in the 70s called Sprint, it was a relatively short range missile meant to shoot down ICBMs in their terminal phase and was pretty good at it mainly because it used the neutron flux from it's own nuclear warhead to fry incoming warheads that were close to it so it did not need to be near as accurate as modern missiles. Sprint moved at mach 10 and when a top speed it glowed so brightly that it could easily be seen from the ground even when it was at high altitude.
This legitimately sounds like something from Star Wars
Sprints are real??? I’ve only heard of them from a game called “High Fleet.”
@@peterni2234 Have fun:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sprint_(missile)
@@jeffbenton6183 Thanks!
Takes link and does a goofy ahh run into the distance*
Sprint was created when DoD finally realized the various Nike systems (Ajaz, Hercules and Zeus) could be overwhelmed by pure numbers. Sprint II system was finally cancelled with the cancellation of Project Safeguard in 1976. The Soviet response to simply overwhelm the system with many nukes as well as develop Soviet MARV systems also raised questions about how really effective the system would be if needed. I will also note that Sprint was able to solve the Hypersonic sheathing issue you describe by simply boosting the communications strength between missile and ground.
Not only am I fascinated by the information you present, I'm also pretty sure that these videos could easily serve as examples of how to make and deliver presentations in virtually any category.
Beautiful work as always, and a great learning experience. Thank you sincerely.
Delivery is very crucial, and that is not easy to learn and copy. Think of the similar phenomenon of acting and actors. Perun has the talent! The slides are rather basic summary talking points. It's because it's Perun delivery, that he gets the intrest and 405'000 subscribers and continually attract new subscribers at a stunning speed, given that it is not essentially "light entertainment content" at the core, that he is serving.
The only potential quibble I have: is Perun underestimating the effectiveness of "smoking accidents" in his chart? Smoking accidents appear to be far more numerous and effective than anticipated in the war plans. Even seemingly well protected and high value targets appear vulnerable to careless smoking habits.
True, but a smoking accident is very cost effective.
Even if it burns down Putins underwear closet 6 months from now, with zero casualties, its still worthwhile.
That it somehow explodes ammo depots and flagships/high tech aircraft is a huge bonus.
The chart is not about average value achieved, but rather minimum target value needed to justify the method.
Hello Perun, you received a great compliment here : "A Strategic Analysis of the Russo-Ukraine War | Richard Iron CMG OBE" as being the best reporting on the war. Bravo.
I love this channel because it’s not just the short attention span of only 8 or 9 minutes for all the other videos. i’m only in adopted Aussie but as a yank it is nice to hear the fellow Aussie talk about the topic of geopolitics which I am quite passionate about in a more extensive ways regarding equipment of military defence and offence.
There are plenty of long form videos (of an hour to two hours) out there. Not “all other videos” are 8 or 9 minutes. There’s also even more 20 - 40 minute videos. Believe me, there is no lack of long form videos. The vast majority aren’t worth watching for a variety of shortcomings. In general, the shortcomings are that they aren’t worth the time spent. But if it’s on a topic that interests you, you click and find out. (And you also might learn the true level of your interest in a topic. It turns out I’m not as interested in armored fighting vehicles as I thought I was.)
And there are quite a few good channels if you’re willing to put up with wading through a lot of garbage. You also learn whom to avoid.
But my point is that if you haven’t found other long form channels that you enjoy, you haven’t put in the work.
Yeah, I love this channel, too. But the thing is, I don't _want_ to watch long videos. I subscribe to too many channels as it is! And there's only so much time in a day.
Nevertheless, I'm always going to stop what I'm doing and watch Perun _anyway._ These are just that good! (And his gaming videos are great, too, but that's something many people do well.)
I'm not particularly interested in military stuff, either. True, the invasion of Ukraine has increased my interest, but from a relatively low starting point. But as you indicate, there's a lot more in these videos. Really impressive!
“A steel beam doesn’t have to melt in order for something to catastrophically fail”
9/11 conspiracy theorists: LALALA NOT LISTENING!
Kudos to Perun for releasing this almost exactly a week before Ukraine shot down a Kinzhal with one of their new Patriots. When discussing the intercept, I'd have been a lot less informed if I hadn't seen this video.
Just like i wrote under this video. People believe Ukraine without even questioning for a second. I like how people accept it like an absolute truth. Now they "shot down" a hypersonic missile with an air defense system that couldn't even shot down simple houthi missiles in Saudi Arabia.
@@AliAli-et7zy sigh. this is why you always lose war
@@NiaArifah-br6cr who's "we"? I'm not Russian and besides Russia doesn't even lose. If you think they do, then stop watching BBC. It's US that nearly lost all wars after WW2.
@@AliAli-et7zy People believe it because it's very believable. Because the Kinzhal is not actually the kind of hypersonic missile everyone is so afraid of. It's a ballistic missile and fundamentally unimpressive. That's explained within the first 20 minutes of the video. Shooting down a Kinzhal wouldn't be miraculous or some kind of new hidden ability. It would've been exactly what was expected.
@@FranklinW People believe it because people are mostly morons who are ready to believe every bullshit that downplays Russia. Lol and i love how people like you talk shit about every equipment from Russia or China because it's not from US. Just because your daddy US can't make one successful test with trillions of money doesn't mean every hypersonic missile is overrated or "not what we know". I also like how US says nothing about Russian or Chinese hypersonic missiles being "overrated" or "fake" but fanboys like you talk shit while knowing nothing. It's like USSR and China accepting US moon landing but morons deny it calling "fake footage". You literally believe a corrupt, liar country's "proof" of shooting down a hypersonic missile with mach 10 speed by an air defense system that has max 4.1 mach speed which couldn't even shoot simple missiles by houthis in Saudi Arabia. The same country made you believe the "ghost of kyiv" bullshit and I'm sure you're one of the people who fell for it. I don't even think it's miraculous but shooting it with an air defense system that can't even shoot down simple missiles by Ukraine? Now that's bullcrap.
And of course since media is controlled by US, they use this as advantage to make morons without any knowledge believe bullshit like this and they hide how their "unmatched" F35 that's been made with 1.7 trillions dollars got tracked and shot by a Soviet era air defense system over Syria.
The kinzal is untouchable......oooops, back to the drawing board.
I work on short range ballistic systems and we found the biggest advantage to a HGV to be lateral movement -- it is generally inadvisable to maneuver a ballistic projectile side-to-side because you will very likely lose control of it. However, you can maneuver and manuever all the way from launch to target up and down, and this allows some resistance to ABM systems. HGVs are great in that the adversary cannot predict the intended target because of lateral movement, while with ballistics you generally have an idea it's going to hit something somewhere in a straight line. Primary disadvantage was too far of a minimum target distance -- very hard to make HGVs for SRBMs and TBMs because of minimum range in the high 000km range.
There has been some fairly newly published stuff that addresses what you're saying.... New concepts like re-orienting fins in an "X" rather than a cross and positioning whatever you're using to maneuver towards the front and not at the rear. A lot of that is probably only recently possible due to advances in microelectronics that make adjustments faster and more granularly than what was possible before.
@@tonysu8860 It's far easier to review an existing system like the F-35 or B-52 than a new system like a B-21, a hypersonic missile...or their combination.
TBF for the nuke vs V2 comparison, it's the combination of both techs that really changed the game.
Yeah, imagine the Cold War without rockets.
How so? Only one of those ended WW2, and it was dropped from a propellor powered aircraft to do so.
@@techienate well, the nukes would be still carried by planes, making them way less threatening.
I mean easier to shoot down. If stuff like radars, electronics etc. still developed like in our timeline.
@@BucketBoatable Planes with nukes are still very threatening due to stealth.
@@deriznohappehquite
I could already tell you that there would be a lot more B-2s and SR-71s if planes were the only ways to deliver nukes.
That would be the case if ICBM tech either never existed or most likely realistically, banned.
Your comment about ARRW estimated at $15-18M per shot, basically being equivalent to 3 days of inpatient care in an American hospital made me start choking on my beer. That has to be one of the best facetious lines I’ve ever heard!!! Keep it up Perun!!! LOL
Kinzhal hit a power plant somewhat 10 miles from me in March. Yeah, that was loud and a bit terrifying. But the power plant worked the next day when I drove by it 🤷♂️
Yes it was kinzhal probably 😂😂
I love that you went from video games to amazing defense analysis videos you have a real talent for it!
It’s widely believed among the audience here that this is Perun’s day job, he’s quite good at it, and he loves his job to the point where he continues to do it after working hours.
@@MarcosElMalo2
I think that computer games are his day job. This is just something he knocks off for relaxation. :)
Perun, you're really awesome. Coming out with so many different topics with a huge degree of knowledge based on multiple sources.
How do you manage to do that so reliably fast?
Thanks for the compliment - but the trick is I'm working on a large number of topics in parallel over the course of months and then only put the finishing touches on once the research is mostly together and it's a good time to complete a topic.
I also try and hone in on topics or areas I've looked at in the past and already have sources, contacts and a basic thesis on (unless it's something ongoing like the war in Ukraine).
@@PerunAU as a fellow Australian that loves your work I think you are selling yourself short.
On average a video a week for at least a year. It doesn’t matter that each bit of work doesn’t get done in a week. The aggregate effect must be on average a video a week. It’s still a massive undertaking and we are all grateful and impressed.
he's just built different mate , simple as
@@PerunAU i ask myself about twice a week what you do for a living and what your degrees were for you to be able to pull stuff of this quality together on such scale and with such consistency.
Either way: thanks a ton mate. Your content has been a source of clarity and coherence in a time of terrifying confusion.
@@pantalaemon He does… “Stuff like this” professionally for the government of Emutopia. Which should give you a little bit of respect for at least some of the stuff government folks are quietly doing on your behalf every day.
What if you had a railgun launched stealth nuclear warhead, preferably launched from a bipedal all-terrain military vehicle? I hear the project got shut down in 2005 though for unspecified reasons.
I don't think there would be a weapon to surpass that...
!
Great article as always. In terms of detecting HCMs, back in the 90's during the first Gulf war, the US was trying to use the ICBM early warning satellites to detect SCUD launches. They found that they could also pick up jet afterburner plumes. And that was 30 years ago.
Perun the only thing cooler than a hypersonic super weapon is your analysis. I work 7 days a week and this is definitely a highlight of my week
You work 7 days a week?
@@Google_Does_Evil_Now That's a hard choice. For his own health and sanity, I hope he finds a way to carve out a day for himself. Or that it's only a temporary Special Circumstances measure.
...But as the video explored, Hypersonic Weapons get very hot!
1:10:27 "Betting billions on the bling and forgetting the basics has consequences" Ayyyy it's Perun lore with the callback!
I don't know which is funnier. That the unstoppable Kinzhal was stopped by a Patriot defence that was not designed to stop it. Or that, yet again, days after you dropped a video, current events conspired to make it outdated 😅. Love what you do mate, keep up the good work!
fake news
@@Maverick-ur2vp lmao cope harder
Klitschko has revealed to BILD journalist that they stopped something 1-1.5m long. Kinzhals length very close to 8 meters.
@@ahwo7520 American military officials say the Patriot shot down a kinzhal. Cope and seethe ;)
@@jonnyj. 6 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Well... The results of the kinzal (sp?) missiles vs. Patriot SAM is clear: the Russian hypersonic wrapons aren't magic and were shot down successfully.
Truth 👏
Perun, thank you for making this stuff comprehensible to us all! Your video is a highlight of my week :)
I deeply love how dry Parun's sense of humor is. He makes a joke and I need water while giggling
I think quite the opposite. It's often unqualified and not necessary as it ruins the flow of the presentation.
@@MicroageHD I have a feeling your sentiment isn't shared on a broad basis here😏
But maybe that is just me...🤷♂️
@@MicroageHD Most people don’t really like a boring, bone dry hour long presentation. If it’s just information I rather just read it, as reading is much faster than speaking. For instance reading a book as opposed to listening to an audiobook. Reading it takes up far less time.
@@MicroageHD how does it ruin the flow?
I used to slip ridiculous BS comments into 8 hour training classes to 1/ see who's awake mentally 2/ liven up dull but necessary material. A good speaker or instructor can throw utterly ridiculous stuff that will be caught by anyone not brain-dead or sleeping. Otherwise you may as well use a robot.
This is the only channel covering military subjects that I trust the analysis from.
Thanks for taking very complicated and often convoluted topics and presenting them in a way that a 65 year old carpenter with a GED can almost follow.Really look forward to and enjoy all of your videos.🖕🇷🇺❤️🇺🇸
I'm glad that you are watching. Tell your people about it - an educated and interested population (I'm talking real education, not merely passing examinations) is a huge factor in protecting our liberties.
"Hyper velocity projectile" or "Gun launched guided projectile" was originally developed for the electro magnetic gun project but was later adapted to fire from the mk45. A round can be fired from the 5inch mk45 every three seconds and guides itself to intercept the ballistic, hyper velocity or ordinary anti ship missile. Defence against ballistic or hyper velocity cruise missiles has already been developed and is ready to be fielded (if not already).
I assume if it comes out of a MK45, which has a muzzle velocity of maybe 760 m/s (1700 mph, so less than mach 3), so it'll have a hard time landing a hit on a high mach target.
It's well and good that something exists, but the reality is that hard problems are hard. If such performance characteristics are enough for us go around saying "we've developed a solution", that's not going to be any more truthful than Russia saying "we developed a threat". In both cases, I'll believe the claim when I see it in action.
Now, "defense against ballistic or hyper velocity cruise missiles", that certainly does exist (SM-3, SM-6). It's just that it comes out of a VLS tube, not a 5 inch gun.
@@nickolas474 HPV's fired out of 5 inch guns have a muzzle velocity in excess of 1000 m/s. Plus due to the projectiles incredibly low drag profile, the round has incredible velocity retention. It also has the advantage of being a lot cheaper than a missile.
Of course one of the fundamental problems of trying to intercept hypersonic missiles is also a fundamental problem of trying to guide hypersonic missiles themselves, that is, getting the guidance electronics to survive the insane heat the missile has to put up with. This is especially challenging with any radar guided missiles, its so great that hypersonic missiles are so far limited to using inertial navigation or GPS, which is not to great against a moving target.
Wasn’t that the same round that was canceled due to high unit costs for the Zumwalt, or is this a different one?
@@jonathanpfeffer3716 No, that was a GPS-guided 155mm/6-inch round. The round actually only ended up being prohibitively expensive because the Zumwalts’ production run was cut down to 3 ships. That meant a lot fewer shells were required, and without a large production run across which to spread the cost of development, the unit price went through the roof. Same with the ships themselves, to a lesser extent.
@@jonathanpfeffer3716 no, different round. The Zumwalt used the 155 mm AGS round, which was a guided artillery round, but one still fired by conventional propellants.
The hyper velocity projectile came from the railgun project, and unlike with the AGS, a modified version of the HVP can be fired from regular 5 inch naval guns.
Now it is planned for Zumwalts to eventually receive railguns, but the railgun project has stalled due to barrel wear issues, at least for the moment anyway.
Patriot vs Kinžal 1:0
Commander of UA airforce, Mykola Oleščuk, confirmed interception of the Kinžal rocket over Kyiv on the 4th of May, 2023. After initially denying it for opsec reasons, they confirmed shooting the missile down on 6th of May.
So much for "no counter"...
Fake news. USA have different sistems for fast rockets. Patriot is not made for that.
@@drzavnalutrijaThe Patriot is made for shooting down ballistic and cruise missiles
@@rick7424 stop trolling bot , first educate yourself, Kinzal is not balistic or classic cruise missile. You write something just to write, and it is always stupid
Excellent strategic reasoning; sound technical analysis; first-class snark. Three thumbs up!
I fully agree that the primary measure of program effectiveness is the coolness of its acronym.
“In-patient care in a US hospital.” Well played, sir. Well played.
lol, obviously it’s not that expensive for a few days.
Idk if your going to see this but:
Could you do a video about Moldova? I feel like it's important that more people understand Moldova and the situation there and how it's relevant to Ukraine and Russia. If you do see this and don't care for Moldova, I still want to thank you for your hard work every week and I'm looking forward to more.
That's a very good idea, hope he sees your comment.
FSB is effective in coercing and bribing the former serf class. The best antidote is a vigorous educational system. Like sunlight fixes fear and darkness.
Love how you paid homage to the very first “All Bling No Basics” video at 1:10:30 in this one. Those little Perun Easter eggs warm my heart. Great video as always mate 🤟🏽
Hey Perun,
I want to say many many thx for your hard work and amazing Videos that you put out on a weekly basis.
I Have been Hooked from the very first Video you did over year ago , and your uploads have become the highlight of the week.
I learned a lot from your work and are always hyped when a new Video comes out. And like any great content i also re-watched all your Videos multiple times , just because there is always so much stuff to learn and see, that a single watched isn't enough to capture it all.
Furthermore your "cold" rational thinking approach , gave me a much needed source of sanity over 2022 which wasn't the best for me , so your Videos has not only done unbelievable work for educational matters but also for me on a personal Level , and for that i am very great-full.
Cheers
~Thel
I hit that like button with hypersonic speed. Keep it up ya legend
After watching Perun-Videos for more than a year now, I have to ask this question: How cost-efficient are Hypersonic Weapons?
Depends what you're firing at and the Pk. I wouldn't recommend firing one at an enemy Toyota Hilux..
@@PerunAUhey, man, it's worth a lot to me...
If you use one to cripple or kill a carrier, probably very cost effective. If you use one to take out hardened air defense sites, maybe cost effective? If you use it to blow up apartment buildings or cause temporary disruption to power utilities, not very.
@@PerunAU Well, there's a good chance the Hilux would survive that.
@@JB-pu8ik Seems to me that ideal use for hypersonics (if you can get em to work) are as antiship missiles. I'm not sure what ground targets you could use them for in an efficient manner...
You really should have a merch store with the amount of shirt-able quotes you churn out.
"Yuri Gagarin was a hypersonic payload" would make for a awesome design.
I have to say, it has been enlightening to hear Perun talk about what hypersonic weapons are _suited_ for, and compare that with how the Russians have been hyping up and _actually_ been using their Kinzhals (mainly against apartment buildings). It makes it clear that Russia sees the Kinzhal as a weapon of terror.
10 million dollars and how many apartments? I personally count 14🤷♂️
love your emutopia and kiwi land examples
F*** Bearland though.
They sound like a**holes.
Well, this video aged interestingly. Kinzhal failed its first actual test, it appears.
Stealth bombers definitely seem like a better investment for the US. They do basically everything that hypersonics do in terms of no-warning strike capabilities only they can carry far larger payloads and you can use them a second time, and a third, and so on for as many decades as the thing can be kept flying
I love listening to you when I do paperwork at my gas station.
You make my crazy job tolerable.
My co-workers just don’t get it.
Their loss!
I appreciate your recognition that sources need to exist. Good vid, your clarity is refreshing.
Shoutout to Ukraine for studying up on their perun videos and shooting down a Russian hypersonic missile this week
Funnily enough, I actually wound up writing a Steam guide for using the mk. 37 in the game Cold Waters just because so many people had complaints about it. (Essentially, just fire two torpedoes, use your wires to put them on opposite ends of the target, then make one torpedo use active homing and get the target sailing at full speed in the opposite direction... directly into your second torpedo.)
Hammer. Anvil.
Every warfare wins with deception.
Appreciate how quickly you've been putting the subtitles up! I always wait until they are to really get the most out of your videos - incredible amount of work you put into these, no idea how you do it, but make sure you're keeping yourself sane/healthy and avoiding burnout - what you are doing on this channel is nothing short of a public service for the age of reason.
No idea if you are gonna read this, but I just want you to know that i really appreciate your effort on your videos! They don't really feel like most of the russo-ukrainian war videos, where half of it seems like propaganda, even if it isnt. Your videos are literally the one light at the end of the tunnel that is the night from sunday to monday. Love you and your content
They only seem like propaganda to you because you don't like what you're hearing.
@@SirAntoniousBlock on the contrary, i wish it was as rosy, as most of them paint it
34:00 The difficulty of detecting anything with a background of ocean waves cannot be overstated. Someday they’ll use the ocean’s surface features to generate encryption keys, when they run out of easier options.
as a canadian, hearing aussie power point man make a joke about hockey on the day after the leafs made it out of the first round for first time in 19 years is chicken soup for the sole.
Time to spice up this beautiful Sunday eve with a hardcore powerpoint presentation. What a time to be alive.
58:31 it is really hard to predict were something will land from deorbiting it. there are a lot of different gravitational (the earth is not a perfect sphere), atmospheric and even solar effects that can change your trajectory. if you do want control of a reentry vehicle you usually have to wait until is lower in the atmosphere and at most hypersonic but usually supersonic. if you could predicted down to the meter where something will land from orbit, not only will ever space agency and space company really want to talk to you, the military will aswell. i'm not saying its not feasible, it is for something like a nuclear weapon but for a conventional weapon, not a chance. and if you can control it you might as well just have built a normal hypersonic maneuverable cruise missile, you save money on a rocket launch, you don't have to worry about the missile not working while in orbit and being unserviceable. because you field this system you have to fix the plasma shielding problem, develop the materials to not only last in hypersonic flight but reentry flight and survive the harshness of space. and you have to spend money on an orbital rocket launch, which cost hundreds of millions in some cases. This type of system may sound scary but is wholly impractical. with the weapon being in orbit that means it can be tracked and you give everyone a view of its launch which means it can be intercepted before it has the chance to maneuver.
FOBS is a threat because you make it look like a regular orbital launch. Instead of a launch over the north pole as with a typical ICBM, you launch at the south pole in the same way you would a satellite going into a polar orbit, except it never makes a complete orbit and detonates at high altitude over the target country to cause a massive EMP. It's not designed to be a precision weapon, rather it's part of a first strike.
I would like to see a chart of the number of your abonnents. It is really impressive, how capable you are of fascinating people with hour long power point presentations!
Your presentation skills about incredibly niche and specific topics is insane. I’m always hooked when your videos come out.
Man, great overview. As an MIT rocket scientist in the defense industry, I give this two thumbs up. 👍👍
Ok, one minor note I’d add with respect to time on target (TOT) of subsonic ordnance using alternative launch platforms: One way to reduce TOT is maintain platforms on stations near potential targets. This in turn requires significant loiter & refueling capabilities, as well as sufficient capabilities to provide security for loitering platforms. Obviously these are all capabilities in which the US has heavily invested.
Regarding ARRW: Gee… It almost sounds like Systems Engineering 101 matters, and programs ignore such things at their own (and taxpayers) peril…
Obligatory, "Babe wake up. The weekly hour long wartime and defense economics Power Point presentation has dropped." 😁
It is frankly absurd that 1-hour PowerPoint presentations are right at the top of the content I am most excited to see each week. That damn Aussie dry wit and accent! :)
I enjoyed this deep dive into hypersonic weapons and the like. Great work! Thanks for uploading, and best wishes from Kiwiland/New Zealand!
Another outstanding and entertaining presentation as always.
Also, I want to say just how impressed I am that you manage to keep this release schedule up even whilst travelling. As someone who also travels regularly for work, I know how much the simple act of doing so cuts into your efficiency, just little stuff like having to go to mess or a restaurant for dinner rather than being at your work desk, potentially dodgy internet, or being restricted to a single, smaller, monitor. It does make me wonder what juggleing or prioritisation you do (if any) to make sure the work executed whilst at home is the stuff more difficult to achieve on the road. Either way, top stuff.
“Imagine speed as having a cost” this is fantastic and correct. I deal with variable speed motors for work and have to explain the relation between speed and energy used. In physics, the term is called “affinity law”. The laymen way to think about it is this.
If you walk a mile it takes 12 minutes, you’re pretty un phased by it.
If you jog a mile, it takes 8 minutes and you got your heart rate up
If you run a mile, it takes 6 minutes and you’ll be tired
If you sprint a mile it takes 4 minutes and you’re exhausted.
It takes exponentially more energy to get somewhere faster. This is true in all forms of speed. Miles per gallon, electricity cost, etc
Affinity law states the energy required is the cube of the difference in speed = 1 speed = 1 cost. 1/2 speed = 1/2x1/2x1/2 or 1/8th to go half as fast Or, going twice as fast is 8x more costly. 3 times faster would be 27 times more costly.
These are in terms of energy, not dollars but there is still a “cost”
If it comes to cars, the US completely ignores this and things bigger equals faster equals better.
Meanwhile Dutch bike 1/3 of the distance to reach the same stuff while saving a shitton of money and feeling a lot better.
There’s another point - hypersonics are extremely difficult to steer. Any side load (eg from steering) puts enormous stresses on the vehicle. They are little more than very fast bullets that font fall out of the sky as easily.
Exactly. People don’t realize that when hypersonics are “maneuverable,” it just means pre-programmed turns of maybe a few degrees. They’re not maneuvering like fighters, nor can they detect and evade interceptors.
They have a targeting oval of some 10km radius within which they can home in on a preprogrammed target. They are utterly unable to evade interception, and their reliance on speed to avoid the slow startup cycle of a dormant IADS network is entirely useless in this age when that shit is all algorythmjcally handled.
Hell, the fucking S300 was capable of enturely independent and automated target engagement, against datalinked handed off targets no less, in the mid 80s, and that shit was soviet, who had piss poor electronics. A modern aur defence net can go from completely cold to firing on all target channels inside of 10 seconds, in which time the hypersonic warhead will have done what, 20-25kms?
Nowhere near detection range against a target gliding in the stratosphear, ir worse yet, on a ballistic arc in space, against a background of the great wide nothing.
No amount of stelath is going to hide that shit on a search radar that the defender can hook up to a national grid, or carrier born nuclear reactor.
yeah i was just imagining if Elite Dangerous had wind physics on atmospheric entry and I were to come in at 3000km/s with no restrictions
what would happen to my ship if I were to pull its stick in a direction and boost during my fly.
wouldnt I “capsize” ? like. the wind would immediately apply overdrive to whatever axis I tilted the stick in. i could tumble. I could flip. I could roll. I could spin and fishtail all over the place. I could be in the same situation as being in Ion Jetstream turbulence from a white dwarf or neutron star.
Belly first as my hull rips itself apart on a single turn
I wipe out like a formula one driver, twisting metal and struts off of my craft from the forces of it all, looking like a mangled mess or rung out rag made of steel. spraying my components not on asphalt or tarmac but on the godly indian rugburn of atmospheric friction
until I am a stream of slag streaking through the sky
scattering sparks like stars
smoke of dreams seared by drag
slice strips across a stormy eye
the warp wake wounded winds close shut with a report to a magnitude only god knows
land and air and leave scars of my failed entry to a terraformed mars
The UPSTAGE ABM demonstrated lateral steering accelerations of over 300G with millisecond response times and that was in the early 70s. Airframe limitations on steering are far higher than most people seem to think.
@@trolleriffic Its not ,a matter of acceleration. All missiles casually pull hundreds of G's. Doesntr help you when you are traveling 3 kilometers a second. Its still gonna take half a minute to do a 180.
And a day later the us patriot systems takes out multiple Russians “hypersonic” missiles
Thanks for your work. lately it seems that the longer you are watching any internet resource for information the more BS one finds, so to have clear and intelligent explanations about topics that have been overblown and saturated with lies and propaganda is useful and nice to watch.
“Smoking Accident” holy hell that is a brutal slide 🤣🤣
A scramjet. 'A straight metal tube with some shenanigans going on' that got a laugh. Very Aussie of you.
Since this video was made a Kinzahl was brought down in Ukraine by what was reported as the Patriot system.
A talent for skewering the latest news bubble. Reality has a value of it’s very own.
41:20 That was perfectly delivered, and I really appreciated a bit of humor in the middle of a such discussions.
And then, a few days after this video got released...
BREAKING NEWS: Ukraine downs Russian hypersonic missile with US Patriot system
Perun, your a great educator. I've learn more watchin your video's than I did in some classes. Thank you.
My only knowledge in that field is about a sonic screwdriver that is used by a particular alien race. So this was very informative.
Who?...
Perun, you are amazing. The second best part of your videos is your comment section. The wit and wisdom multiply! Thank you!!❤👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼
Thanks for the rundown, I don't know as much about these things as I should but you just improved that quite a bit
New Perun video? I get there at hypersonic speeds!
47:38 saw a report today 5/5/23 that a Kinzhal was shot down over Kiev.
now the indefensible hypersonic kinzal is just another casualty of over confident,this was believed to be shot down by a u.s supplied patriot system,this further proves that this hyped up tech. can be defeated easily using the current defensive weapons.
saw the photos via news,one of the photo showed the thickness of the armour 150 to 200mm,impressive.
I always love these Hypothetical situations always posed. I could definitely see these situations being possible, but you never make it clear what sides would be taken, and by who. Thank you for that
Truly eye opening concept presented.
Quality of the program is directly connected to the quality of the acronym.
Seeing an older patriot system shot one down yesterday they are overhyped
that's why they are 'hyper'-sonic ;)
I'm consistently wondering how you never run out of topics.
I think if nothing happens in Ukraine and I think of nothing else I have potential content planned for roughly six months out. I just keep all of them tracked centrally, pulling together bits and pieces for each one steadily over time.
@@PerunAU Even when the war ends, people will be studying it for decades to come.
FISH?, Breath?, gills? I must say you are doing a wonderful job. I just checked your show listings, and they look super interesting. Thank you.
Congrats to Perun for his world javelin record
Thanks Perun!
In a way hypersonic weapons could be considered the antithesis of laser weapons, in that one of the main goals of laser weapons is to reduce the cost per shot to the lowest possible amount - just electricity (assuming not a chemical laser).
The problem is that laser weapons are LESS viable than hypersonics given atmospheric limitations.
@Graham Strouse _Different applications._
Once you've got a laser, you don't have to worry about wasting ammunition on a shot, so it will be a logistics game changer. You can fire it at any target regardless of its value, including cheap irregulars.
And a laser defence AA system can't be slowly attritioned over time by, for example, cheap drones. It can only be overwhelmed by too many simultaneous incoming targets (and targets to difficult to intercept, such as hardened missiles).
laser energy efficiency is like around 20% (eg: infrared CO2 laser), meaning we will spend 5x more propellant or fuel to deliver the same amount of energy to our target (as a radiation) compared to a physical interceptor that carries that energy in the form of kinetic (an impactor). It is like if we replace bullets with lasers, we have to carry 5x more gunpowder to convert them to electrical energy to power the laser. The problem being the laser technology we have right now is not yet efficient.
@@xponen guns aren't going to be replaced by lasers anytime soon, but I don't think casbott is saying that. Guns and bullets are basically the cheapest items in military procurement and are extremely effective at what they need to do. Missiles however, are different. They are expensive, complicated, and have a small stock. If laser weapons can replace missile defence systems like the Israeli Iron Dome that would be extremely important. US aircraft carriers have massive power generation capacity, and in a wartime scenario almost all somewhat developed countries would have access to enough electricity to shoot anything that flies, even if it appears expensive, because it's still a lot cheaper than a rocket
@@xponenYou do realize Carriers have a Nuclear power plant right? They overengineered on electricity supply for a reason.