Russian Defence Production 2023 - Can Russia keep up with equipment attrition in Ukraine?
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- Опубликовано: 27 май 2024
- The war in Ukraine is one of relentless attrition. While territory usually only changes hands extremely slowly, munitions and equipment and destroyed and consumed at prodigious rates in a fires-dominated slugging match.
In that kind of struggle, the endurance of a military may owe a lot to the pipeline of replacement equipment that supports it.
For Ukraine, that largely means looking into the details of foreign equipment provision and some Ukrainian domestic production.
But for Russia, without as many allies to call on, one of the key factors is probably defence industrial output, a topic which is widely contested in news and propaganda. According to some sources, Russia produces enough equipment to overpower all of NATO alone, acording to those on the other extreme, it produces little of value or quality.
In this episode, I try to dive into Russian data as well as battlefield loss observations to try and get an understanding of where the truth lies. Trying to understand how much equipment Russia may be producing, and what that means for its ability to sustain a long, hard-fought war.
Patreon:
/ perunau
Caveats and Corrections:
All normal caveats and disclaimers apply (yes including the non-reliance and non-financial-advice provisions, please don't trade defence stocks based on YT videos)
At one point a slide refers to it being 'reported' that the Russian defence budget has already spent 1T Rubles on salaries in the first half of 2023 - It is important to clarify that the inclusion of statements as 'reported' does not represent endorsement of their accuracy. I have no solid information on paid out salaries and allowances in Russia in Q1&2 2023
Reading/sources:
Julian Cooper (published in SIPRI) - RUSSIA’S MILITARY EXPENDITURE DURING ITS WAR AGAINST UKRAINE
www.sipri.org/sites/default/f...
Julian Cooper (published in SIPRI) -IMPLEMENTATION OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERAL BUDGET DURING JANUARY-JULY 2022 AND SPENDING ON THE MILITARY
www.sipri.org/sites/default/f...
Shoigu saying the SDO in 2023 will be 1.5x 2022
rg.ru/2022/11/30/shojgu-v-202...
TASS on Septmber 2022 budget submissions
tass.com/defense/1514879
Rostec - supply of Tu-160 engines
rostec.ru/news/odk-postavit-m...
Medvedev saying things:
tass.com/defense/1526773
tass.com/defense/1666259
Putin 2.7x figure
tass.com/politics/1631641
Borisov on the Russian defence sector:
vpk.name/news/613140_borisov_...
Chemezov interviews:
rostec.ru/news/mikhail-mishus...
vpk.name/en/755227_sergey-che...
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
Institut Action Résilience Research piece
institutactionresilience.fr/p...
The 1,500 T-90M and T-14 thing
en.topcor.ru/33467-military-w...
Jamestown foundation pieces (by Pavel Luzin)
jamestown.org/program/russias...
jamestown.org/program/russian...
Rosstat industrial data:
rosstat.gov.ru/folder/313/doc...
rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediab...
Reuters reporting on military production
www.reuters.com/world/europe/...
Pavel Luzin (for FPRI) - Russia's military industry forecast 2023-2025
www.fpri.org/article/2023/04/...
Destruction of the Minsk
kyivindependent.com/uk-defens....
Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Russian Defence Production 2023
00:01:34 - What Am I Talking About
00:02:47 - Assessing Defence And Industrial Production
00:10:11 - Budgets
00:17:38 - Corporates And Workforces
00:23:27 - Output Measures
00:27:54 - What's Going On In The Russian Data?
00:31:45 - Russian Equipment Patterns
00:50:40 - The Drone Effort
00:58:26 - What About Sanctions
00:59:55 - Endurance And A Changing Russian Army
01:03:08 - Scenarios And Failure Points
01:08:09 - Conclusions
01:09:58 - Channel Update
This should hopefully be the last video produced under 'living out of suitcase' circumstances for at least a little while. Thanks for bearing with me as I worked through all that.
This episode is a bit of a 'back to basics' for the channel, in that is more focused on data and how we might interpret it, but given most of you have been here for a while I hope you can enjoy and get a lot out of it.
I also mention this in the video but I'll put it here just to head off the inevitable question - yes, looking at Russian production is only ever going to be half the equation, you have to look at Ukrainian attrition and resupply as well to fully understand what's happening. As long as there's some interest I'll be doing exactly that in the near future - though I am likely to hold off until we know the fate of the additional US funding authorisation for Ukraine that's likely to be debated this month.
Thank you all for your engagement as always, and I'll see you again, next week.
King
Get some rest man, you deserve it
maybe take a quick TI gaming break, or anything else from Hooded Horse, really. its all quite good stuff
Always worth the wait.
Sounds like a plan 👍🏻 see you next week 🇦🇺🇺🇦
Mate, I’ll take your living out of a suitcase videos over the rest of the internets highly produced wild speculation. Seriously I can’t stress enough how much I appreciate your consistency and honesty.
'The age difference between the oldest and newest russian tank is probably too much for even Leonardo DiCaprio' lmao
🤣😅
0:57
Early belly laugh on this one
Savage.
Stone cold killing right there😂🥶
Gonna pretend like I didn't just sit here waiting for this to drop for the past 2 hours
Same
Sorry mate, sometimes it's a quick process getting these up, and sometimes the tech doesn't play ball.
Same lol
It's just going to make you appreciate it more 😂
@@PerunAU I appreciate your impressive work ethic, but we're definitely joking. Thank you as always for the great content
Despite the potentially dry subject matter, this is a real return to form for you.
Data driven conclusions by someone who's qualified. Love it.
Shit is great to watch when I'm going to bed. At dialysis. Or wanting something to play when I'm doing stuff. I'll miss tidbits but usually replay the video again.
I'd like to see how he voices and writes the scripts.
He's just as qualified as anyone here it's all estimated guess work.
@@holdforth724Explain.
@holdforth724 technically accurate, however, it misses the serious amount of research that goes into making each video
@@parrib1488 These videos are biased towards the Ukrainian side though so not very good journalistic integrity. Facts are often made up and conclusions made at a whim.
Mate, from an old South African / Aus, let me congratulate you on your presentations which are always way, way above anybody else's. Right in there is true Aussie humour as well.
Please keep up the great work.
Thanks again mate.
"the Machine Spirit does not like dividing by zero"
_furiously chants in binary_
I feel some NaNs going off. xaxa
Some guardsmen: Hey what’s 3 divided by 0?
Calculator Servitor: (explodes)
In which minute?
@@eget4144 45:39
Ever since I understood the weakness of my flesh, it disgusted me.
Nothing like an hour long defence economics PowerPoint to kickstart my Sunday errand run.
It isn’t an errands run, it’s a personal logistics build up of mission critical material (:
Excellent opportunity for afternoon coffee
....erm....the Marder and Leopard 1 are also not the latest in tank production, are they :p
@@buschtaxi75driver55 footage available supports this message
The Marder is not a tank at all, it is an IFV. And so what? The point of the video was to analyze russian data and the lies and truths around it. No one pretended that Ukraine has top modern stuff on every front.
Typically when factories are asked to multiply output (I've been there) headcount increases don't necessarily scale with output, mostly due to industrial automation, and specialist jobs being restricted to day shifts and existing specialised staff able to cope with increased output. This is especially true the further a department is from manufacturing, such as sales, marketing, legal etc. Night shifts are the first way to scale production when there's an immediate need of substantial expansion. You also prioritise output more than you would normally, as opposed to quality, long term improvement projects, quality of life improvements, etc. There's also the possibility that these factories were not operating at high utilisation and ramped to max utilisation, that's quite typical. Investment might also be increased into things like outsourced maintenance contracts, expedited shipments of supplies and product, and other things that increase production but not necessarily efficiency or headcount. Additionally, it's not uncommon for unskilled labour to match experienced staff productivity levels on assembly lines within 6 months - 1 year. There are very few metrics in a factory that scale closely with production. Revenue, power consumption, and quantity of shipments are the main ones. Having said all that, you would do very very well to quadruple output with a 20% headcount increase.
"Having said all that, you would do very very well to quadruple output with a 20% headcount increase."
If the factory runs for the sake of purely producing profits yes.
But the Russian military industry runs to ensure the safety of the nation.
In peacetime, a lotof that industry essentially runs either at a loss or at very small profits.
Because they have a BIG chunk of surge capacity as part of the system.
Russia began to massively ramp up the military industry in April last year.
By June they were running many/most current factories on triple shifts AND ramping up the production per shift. For simpler gear, by the end of 2022, they had increased production by over a magnitude.
Then early 2023(and maybe late 2022), they started opening up new production lines and factories from mothballing.
Start of 2022, they were producing less than 100 T-90 per year, sources vary wildly on the exact number, some claim as low as 20-30(even less has been suggested by some less reliable sources).
By April 2023, that production line was stated to have reached the ramp-up goal of a thousand per year.
And now they're PROBABLY starting up a T-80 factory from zero to roughly the same rate of production. Predicted to reach that production before end of the year.
So, if the most lowballing figures for for pre 2022 production happens to be true, by early next year, Russia will have increased its tank production by over a hundred times in less than 2 years.
AND, that includes upgrading the T-80 model produced to one with completely upgraded electronics and the same new turret that the T-90MS uses.
@@DIREWOLFx75 You're free to believe those numbers if you want to. But if you do, I don't know why you're here on this channel.
You’re forgetting that these Russian factories have been producing far below their maximum of 4000 tanks per year of the Soviet times.
@@DIREWOLFx75 pretty much every single thing you jsut wrote is made up and has no basis in fact
@@DIREWOLFx75You honestly believe they're producing 1000 T-90s a year? You must be hitting the CIA grade LSD! 😂🤣😂🤣
I can't work out how you can repeatedly deliver such well prepared presentations every week, it's an astounding achievement. The humour spinkled throughout always cracks me up, from the whole emutopia vs kiwiland scenario to the thermal death of the universe and now leo's dating habits. You are a true champion.
He speaks a lot, but never says anything. Never commits to an opinion. Technical jargon salad isn't analysis.
because its a psy-op likely prepared by a "think tank"
@@nickcharles1284 What is what news should really be, invites you to think for yourself, and delivering a balanced account.
There is no analysis. And what does 'balance' mean, or supposed to signify. What you mean is accurate reporting. Perun's does not provide analysis - whereby we might have a metric by which to judge his conclusions - ha simply tosses a salad of information and stats and states a bunch of What Ifs, and 'What needs to happen'. And of course his perspective is completely clouded by bias in favor of the idea that Ukraine could prevail. This concept was and is divorced from reality. Had he been objective, he would have predicted Ukraine's loss. But he has no understanding of European politics, culture, or Russian or Ukraine history and culture, and a completely detached concept of what Russia's military was capable of'; much less what motivated Putin to do what he did, and is doing. He also bought into the fantasy of the military might of the United States, and its method of war being able to be applied to a war against an equal opponent - on the other side of the planet. @@zimsonh4332
@@nickcharles1284 TL;DR: "He doesn't say what the russian propaganda claims, therefore he is bad at this."
Today begins the era where, whenever I take a beer out of the fridge, I will not be able to close the door without thinking or announcing "I have produced one beer."
Ha! I'm really looking forward to driving my productivity numbers far higher over the summer.
As a homebrewer with my own keggerator I need to do this so hard.
Aaaand here he is! Your work ethics never cease to amaze. Cheers from Poland!
@@u2beuser714do you know why you're nephews and not friends?
Because one doesn't get to choose one's family.
Ano wincyj, Panie wincyj Peruna :P
When the Poles praise your work ethic… you may have a good work ethic…
It's "cease". "Your work ethics never cease to amaze". Cheers to Poland.
@@zlozlozlo thanks!
"...the conversion rate between rubles and US dollars has jumped around more than a kangaroo on redbull over the last couple of years..." educating and entertaining as always
Poor Danny Ric gotta hate his recent streak of bad luck
Wouldn't "kangaroo on cocaine" be better since it crashed so hard?
That's doesn't change a lot since Russia pay workers in ruble and by it's own domestic energy and resources in rubles, not dollars, which continue to flow in the same numbers to Russia
@@mrobocop1666 but when trading with other countries, usually it is the US dollar that is the preferred currency
@@_wayward_494I doubt very much that Russia, India and China are trading with each other in USD
Glad that Perun finally accepted that we're all here for the deep dive into defense economics and didn't bother to be surprised at why we're all waiting for a new video every week
"Russian soldiers and Russian factory workers ultimately do not work for free."
Somewhere in Russia, Medvedev just had a really good idea to relieve some pressure on the budget!
And then he sobered up a bit and remembered that doing so would likely spark *another* revolution…
@@Muljinn Well.. if he can outsource some production to Xinjian, maybe the Uyghurs will build stuff for Russia for free.
russia should bring back serfdom
Factory workers maybe but the reason they offer such huge salaries to the soldiers they sign up is because they don’t expect them to live long enough to have to pay them.
Honestly I feel russian financial capacity will run out before industrial capacity. It won't matter if rubble plunges. The bank of Russia can't sustain its current measures.
“Producing more weapons than the military needs…”
This could also point to lack of personnel in the military.
Yes and no. I have an answer but I can't explain rn
Edit: Okay greatly since the start of the year the Russians have been on a recruiting drive each month getting at least a thousand volunteers and these volunteers would be placed into training.
Not only that, large numbers of irregular units have be made throughout the war Wagner obviously which is still operations in Russia just being sent to the four winds it it's members intergrated into other PMCs, The Chechens since they are mostly military police with a view actual special forces within them.
Storm Z the convicts who are the real cannon fodder as when the Russians see their positions at risk the Storm Z are sent to man them as long as possible and retreat but it doesn't have a few assault like elements due to former prisoners getting back into service due to bad behaviour in Russia( the first convicts that were freed after Bakhmut, thus more prisoners joined).
Militias and PMCs all who which have signed loyalty contracts to the Kremlin. While these are irregular units many tactics used by these units are being replicated by the Motorized Rifleman and Tankers. Add the drive to increase the number of Russian number of contract soldiers from 1Million to 1.5 million. This has meant large amounts of rubles as Perun also suggests and a call up of reserves.
Russians have suffered losses of course yet while they've suffered losses of material and trained men these losses have yet to cause a major panic in the Russian center being Moscow, St Petersburg as recruiting is down there, political reasons mostly. The losses in artillery due to wear and tear, counter battery is causing the Russians to re-think much of their fighting.
Firstly precision firing is important now as a simple drone can help co-ordinate artillery fire as I've watched multiple Videos of Ukrainians and Russians due this for the past summer the Russians have been doing the most as soon as a car, IFV, Tank and other vehicles are seen and trench positions being shelled that has stopped due to counter battery. Due to the Soviet legacy North Korea stockpile of shells can remove the problem of needing shells in a few months but if Western analysts are to be believed the Russians have the capacity to make more ammo.
While bullets and guns are both in abundance and being made the Soviet Union made at least 5 million AK74s and various platforms so I don't think there will be much cause of panic since the Russians can make more of those. Kalishnakov Concern and Zenitco are working closely with elite units in of the armed forces for upgrades and specialized parts ( optics, rails etc). Even units have from the other regions in Russia have been sent to Ukraine mostly I'm seeing alot of Naval infantry(Marines, Sailors and Spetsnaz elements) both from Caspian sea, Black Sea and Pacific operating in Ukraine mostly squad battalion level.
VDV units while massive loses have occurred are still operating I guess fighting in the Kremmina forest gave alot of guys time and experience as all summer in that direction the Ukrainians have been on the defence I was expecting offensive actions but not a thing there.
And other VDV units have been deployed and units attrited have mostly be replenished with less trained men I guess taken from units in Russia or The ground forces ( VDV are rapid deployment units so it makes sense to just send a good infantry man the parachute training might be reserved for later.
I guess this is how the Russians have conducted their manpower problem this entire summer cause else wise you'll be having massive collapses in multiple sectors besides Bakhmut and Robotyne.
Look at a map of the combat areas fortified positions included and you'll see what I'm talking about it took all of this I mentioned to hold the line and be on the attack in Luhansk.
"An entrenching tool can be used as a weapon, right dimitri" - "uh, in a pinch?" - "Perfect, Davyid, start the stamper and switch the dies, we got an order for 2mio tools!!" (And thus, every battalion got 10k entrenching tools, most were scrapped for their wooden handles for fire, the metal sold back to a metal plant. The logistics battalions were overloaded and couldnt transport everything, leading to the assumption the recipients were full on capacity and not in need of more)
Sounds like a good spin: "We're not loosing too many troops or have issues mobilizing new ones, our military industry is outproducing our military needs."
It's just propaganda talk
Or they're building things that the military can't use, like coastal defense pre-dreadnoughts, hence "more than the military needs"
I am amazed that Perun puts out such high quality researched videos on RUclips every week.
I dont understand why a country would want to bring out its production of equipment numbers while at war. Is it not beneficial to hide those numbers from your enemy?
As a government-employed insurance company auditor, I thoroughly enjoyed this presentation, especially the first 30 minutes or so. I almost went looking for my pocket protector.
Aaaand this is the first loser of the day that writes the typical fake bs “as a…@ comment on RUclips.
🤣
👏
Pootin and his cronies use pocket protectors.😅
While listening to Kraftwerk, I'm the operator
With my pocket calculator
"I'm about to talk about what is no doubt everyone's favorite topic on RUclips: budgets, production indexes, and corporate reporting." **heavy breathing** **reaches toward the 'Like' button**
I'm sorry, I gave up budgets, production indexes and corporate reporting years ago.
Now I don't want to be kink-shamed but budgets, production indexes, and corporate reporting sounds.... very exciting.
In summary: at current Russian loss and replacement rates (assuming the Ukrainians can keep it up and are also supplied at the same level or better by Western friends), Russia will have completely emptied their useable stockpiled heavy equipment (tanks/artillery/BMPs etc.) by the end of 2024. By that stage, they will likely have ramped up production/refurbishment capacities a bit further, but are still looking at trying to fight the war in 2025 onwards with less than half the current resupply/replacement rates that they have been going through so far - if the war lasts that long. That said, this doesn't mean that the Russian army will grind to a halt, just that they may shift to using more LIGHT equipment (drones etc.) which are easily imported or manufactured inside Russia, INSTEAD of heavy equipment. The Ukrainian army is likely to do the same, for slightly different reasons (lots of improvising, and saving heavy gear for when it will actually make a difference). So the war in Ukraine is evolving further into being an odd mix of WW1 (infantry in static lines defended by trenches) and WW3 (drones, satellite imagery, etc.)
By 2025, Ukraine won’t have any more military age men to conscript, and their army will be on its last legs in terms of manpower. Even if the West supplies weapons then, I don’t see them making use of it. If they do, it’d be suicide, they could advance but at that point, Ukraine is finished. They’ve lost their demographics, and their country will never recover. The excess women will probably find husbands in Europe, and the remaining men/women family units will be too small to repopulate Ukraine given its already pre-war appalling fertility rates. Ukraine may retake their land, but they will be a small country in population size.
I very much expected this once the initial bumrush phase of the war stopped, we saw the same with Iraq-Iran in the eighties, eventually it was back to WW1 style combat as equipment ran out.
@mitchellcouchman6589 Where exactly are you getting this idea that the entirety of the NATO alliance countries cannot produce war materiel?
@mitchellcouchman6589 So your argument has shifted from NATO having no spare industrial capacity and 'few remaining places to draw tanks and materials from' to, NATO needing an abstract amount of time to continue producing munitions at a higher rate than standard peacetime operation.
You are weird and I'm dismayed that I genuinely can't tell if you're just mucking about or genuinely trying to push some misguided narrative, idiotic as the world is getting.
It could have been different, but Ukraine is one. Weaklings and cowards will look at IT and do nothing. Their production situation is even worse. and is this their war? Yes, and expensive. Let only some Ukrainians die, the taxpayers of the USA and the EU do not pay, isn't that the main thing! It's just ridiculous! suckers who will never go to war themselves talk about when Russia will run out of steam. Russia will build up a huge army by 2025. When Ukraine breaks down, does it make sense to stop at it if there are such schmucks around? I think not.
Thank you for educating America's youth Perun 🙏. Every episode I turn you on and you educate my class for 2 days 👏
Please keep teaching our youth about these very relevant topics. My Schools didnt teach nowhere near enough Soviet/ Post stuff
Ah, here is the highlight of my day! I’m finding that intelligent commentary on this topic is rare. Thank you for cutting through the propaganda with a sensible analysis.
Cutting through the propaganda? You sure you're watching the same video as me?
Do elaborate.
@@footlongfabotypical smug Internet comment. Not a hint of a concrete point. Why even waste the time to write it?
@@footlongfabo Yeah, this guy is just another pseudointellectual propagandist looking for clicks from the Russophobic fascist crowd that Western mainstream propaganda media riled up over the past couple of years.
@@footlongfabo- Yup. We’re all sure, comrade. Join the club. It’s nicer over here.
The level of research you do and the excellent analysis is just amazing. Plus you find a way to make it humorous and entertaining. One of my favorite YT channels ever. Thank you
The graphs, statistics, and conclusions drawn from them were really awesome. I know it’s tough to get this stuff, but more of it is definitely welcome!
I think the biggest challenge for Russian production is the fact that the nature of the war is constantly changing. We saw the most important weapons go from javelins, to cruise missles, to drones, to soldiers, to artillery, to air defense. What they begin to prioritize and focus on in the near future may be less important.
True, they could make cruise missiles ata rapid rate and it kind of wouldn't matter, because most would get shot down before reaching their targets, and it seems Russian intelligence is very patchy, so they often don't hit anything of value or miss.
I think the changes do happen (partly) due to the existence of the prior 'important' weapons. So because there are Javelins, armoured vehicles keep distance and stay covered. So drones jump in to kill them dirctlt. Also artillery is combined with drones, so vehicles in general get more vulnerable over distance too. So infantry gets more used. Then anti drone air defence appears and gone are the times of taking out single vehicles via drone, you now have to hit the storage or repair shops far away from the front. Time to shine for the cruise missile.
But as soon one of the prior weapons starts to disappear, the gap will enable the enemy to use some of the prior tactics again.
This makes it even worse for Russia, because not only will the new "game changer" will get obsolete soon, they still need to continue to produce it, to suppress the Ukraine of playing the old game again.
@@nils9853 Attrition will make it difficult to counter-rotate your forces against the enemy arsenal, since you'll already have suffered losses.
Well russians are doing good on drone department and artillery department. I see their fpv drones crew taking out Ukrainians everyday they're getting very good same for artillery crews but theri tank crews are still shit bcz most actual trained vrew is already dead . Their ifv , tanks and apc department is severally lacking. If it was not for gaint trench system they dug along with mines Ukrainians would have taken over northern front easily. Atleast russians learned somewhat maybe little too late though
The nature of the war is that Ukraine is getting its shit kicked in and that hasn't changed in a couple months.
I never really expected Russian industrial output to be compared to Enron but here we are
You can't Enron everyone all the time forever 😢
Russia out-Enron's Enron.
You can't fool me sonny, it's -turtles- Enron all the way down.
@@sixstringedthingthat's good; took me a sec, but that was witty AF. 👍🏻
Yes, loved that one too.
Anyone else watch these twice? 1st watch = opening up a birthday present... 2nd watch = playing with it 😊
I watch about three full Perun videos a day. Yah.. lots of re-runs
This is where you shine! The news cannot or will not analyze like this. You are the only person on RUclips I will listen to for over an hour. Thanks.
that was a terrific report, and it reminds me of one of my favorite quotes from Winston Churchill, "Americans can always be trusted to do the right thing, after they have tried everything else." We should not be giving equipment piece meal but by the buckets full. These drone issue has been a growing problem for years and our military is still not taking it seriously. Charles
Pump out the mines, I think Thatcher can't argue now.
You don't get it. We don't want Ukraine to win quickly, and this whole video demonstrates why. A long war grinds down the Russian economy and military to the point where it will never recover. A quick victory just lets them re-arm and try again in 10 years.
at some point we may see russians dig up marshall plan equipment US donated during WW2 fighting against ukraine.....
@@zacklewis342hows that solving ukrainian troops KIA/wounded which cant be replaced? that seems weakest link in this, assuming food, medicine, lethal equipment and so on keep flowing.
@@effexonThe US don't care about Ukrainians u fool.
this weeks gem "like a kangaroo on Red Bull" Thankyou yet again for all your hard work, another fascinating 70 odd minutes .... Slava Ukraine
I was riding my motorcycle alongside a kangaroo the other day. I was doing 42kmh and the kangaroo was hopping at the same speed, very relaxed. It’s amazing how efficient they are at speed. 🦘🇦🇺
On tank losses by month, we should also take note of what units on the Russian side. Besides the 4th Guards and 200th Arctic, which were the T-80 units in the western areas, there were roughly 7 brigades with a battalion each in the Far East units. Two of them were Naval Infantry Brigades, units that have been shown to preform better and often get put in the thick fighting just like with the the VDV. Some of that loss data may be more reflective of T-72 units being mauled and pulled out of the line and the trend over time of them pulling more and more units from far flung districts to the front. I doubt this explains most of the loss data change, but we should be mindful of that.
Are you talking about the 4th Guards Tank Division, part of the 1st Guards Tank Army?
The 1GTA is "tired and shagged out after a long squawk". (If unfamiliar with that status, it's worth a search.)
Sending MBTs to the front without a rather perfect, active anti ATGM system must be called "pointless Kamikaze". A crazy waste of men, first of all.
If Russian generals had used youtube, they could have known that(If Merkavas are roasted by Kornets, what will MILAN do to the T72s ?) . Instead they bought a new BMW for their missus from the embezzled funds.
@@frankgerlach4467 That's an oversimplification by far. Tanks are still incredibly valuable battlefield assets. There's a reason Ukraine has asked for them by the hundreds. No system is survivable, but in the words of Chieftain: ask not what you can do to the tank but what the tank can do for you.
It's not that Russian generals don't know the risks. It's that they probably didnt think a war would actually happen and if it did that Ukraine would just roll over. The classic kick in the door and it all comes down attitude.
Как танк т80 Алёша подбил 4 единицы и вышел из боя
11:22 "...defense spending was increasing faster than any other category except for internal security."
Dear lord.
Something not considered is the Russian requirement to guard the borders and coasts…in other words, you can’t count the entire Russian Air Force - unless you assume they are going to have zero planes guarding the Chinese border, for example.
This is a later addition.
The point of my post, is that many analysts do a gross assessment of military equipment, etc. when comparing sides, particularly in this war.
Short answer, even if Russia has 5x the air force or number of tanks that Ukraine does, it cannot devote 100% of its forces toward the invasion of Ukraine, unless it doesn’t want to fly any planes elsewhere, or guard the borders with the 13 other countries it touches upon.
On the other hand, Ukraine can and will devote 100% of its’ military capability to the defense of the nation.
Even so, Russia has been drawing down its entire military. I read a while back that the occupation garrison in Koenigsburg is down from 6,000 troops to 500. It is said that the boy scouts from Estonia could march on St. Petersburg unopposed.
I’ve watched with interest the huge explosions during Ukraine’s “shaping” exercises.
Who knows how many of each thing has been destroyed in those explosions?
There is no visual evidence so Orin can’t count it.
I hope the attrition is much larger than we have photos or video to confirm.
Those were some huge explosions in Crimea.🤷🏼♀️
I was wondering what has happened to the military readiness of Eastern parts of Russia. Have they been stripped of modern equipment or experienced manpower? Are we going to see some kind of opportunistic attack or rebellion?
@@otterylexa4499 ask the JDF intel division, THEY KNOW
@@otterylexa4499opportunistic CCP attack? Well it would have to replace the oil and mineral losses they currently enjoy if they were to reclaim _‘east Manchuria’_
China won't try anything with Russia since they know they would get turned in to radioactive dust just like nobody else would invade Russia officially
"Given the difficulty of addressing Russian defend production, I'm going to treat this a bit like a murder mystery." I don't know if "murder mystery" was an intentional double entendre or not, but some solid wordplay from my favorite Aussi.
LazerPig said something like "if russia doesn't show it, they don't have it " and i think that's true
Russia begging North Korea for a discount on ammunition says alot…
As does Russia asking for the tooling to make it themselves ... and North Korea refusing to supply it.
There is a good reason for the influx of t-80s. The T-80s use a turbin engine that was only used for the T-80s. So parts for them were not in demand. Ergo they were not stolen or borrowed by private industry or active units. Meanwhile the T-72 uses the V-92S2F or basically V-2 engine. A decent diesel engine with good power. Engines that were used in all t72 tanks plus ....mines, factories, state farms, small power plants etc across the USSR. So the demand for parts to these engines after 1991 remained high but supply was irregular. Ergo why not alot of t72 are comming out of reserve depos. Any new parts and engines are directed to t90 production rather than reviving the plundered t72 depos.
Depots and resupply stations are being raided. Last number I know of Ukrainian troops raiding about of 21 depots.
I wouldn't ever describe the V2 Engine as good past 1960.
Hmmm, don't understand why Chinese factories aren't secretly supplying spare parts to Russia for stuff like the diesel engines...
@@Noble713 That's a big old "maybe?" since Chinese Type 80 and 96 on paper are using a copy of the V-2 and are still out there.
This is an interesting post. It also explains why they reportedly restarted new T-80 production lines rather than the cheaper T-90s or the Armata lines as some presumed. Spare parts for the T-80 aren't as common so they needed new production of lots of parts anyway, and it's less strain on the rest of the economy to produce them in isolation than to impose on already taxed V-92S2F suppliers.
"Unless they are pulling them out of storage to put them in a cave somewhere as a massive prank..." You got me on that one :D
One of the main objectives of the Ukraine War from the US perspective was to bleed Russia of cold war equipment and future capability. That's really the driving force behind the US's involvement in this war, to weaken Russia permanently. All of the data shown in this great presentation is reinforcing the strategy is working beautifully.
Russia lost that is not a doubt whatsoever. The challenge now is to make Ukraine win.
What would have been the military value of this old crap being now burned ?
The Soviet Union accumulated enough equipment to fight WW3 and continue fighting WW3 for years if necessary. Russia of the modern day has somehow, in the invasion of a country right next door to them thus not requiring to transport that army across the world in the way the United States would have to, squandered it in two years in the invasion of a single country while seeing minimal gains with most of that captured territory having been already captured by rebel forces. It's pretty amazing.
Don't forget that much of said stockpile, due to corruption, has been scavenged, stolen or just never been maintained, so there's astronomical amounts of lost material there.
And lost half it's army in the process
@@mitchellcouchman6589
The Ukrainian military prewar strength was about 300,000 men to Russia’s 1.2 million… they’re more equally matched now that Ukraine is fully mobilized though.
@mitchellcouchman6589 if your BS post had any merit Russia wouldn't have invaded.
"most of that captured territory having been already captured by rebel forces" thats some copium if ive heard it. Ukraine has lost more territory during the period of their counteroffensive than they gained. Its easy to find maps showing this.
Not even a minute in and just want to say there's a difference between production and getting the stuff to the front line. The last mile of logistics can be quite the challenge.
just put it there
Indeed, especially when the Ukrainians are pretty good at targeting this last mile 😎
@@abbofun9022 because that last mile is IN Ukraine
@@abbofun9022
This is, IMHO, how Ukraine wins. First they isolate Crimea which is underway. Once Russian forces are starved (ammo, fuel, large weapon systems) out of Crimea is should not take a lot of assets to keep them out. The Russians would be able to get there by ship.
Once Crimea is secured then concentrate on the rest of the problem. And by then Russian forces are likely to be greatly demoralized.
Hopefully we see an adequate amount of long range weaponry/ammo reaching Ukraine so that they can reach Russian assets during the fall and spring muddy seasons when Russian meat charges are not going to be a problem. As soon as the rains start then take out the roads and railways and finish work on the Kerch bridge.
But something doesn’t seem to be covered is depots and supply stations. Whenever Ukrainian troops capture a weapons and ammunition depot. Shows that the Russian troops can equip them themselves but since the equipment is so far apart from each other, they can’t at the same time. I remember seeing a clip of Ukrainian troops finding over 100,000 AK rifles from a raided depot, also a few thousand rounds of 7.62.39 and hundreds of ratnik uniforms.
He paid a satellite to take a photo? 😆 Perun is a god damn legend. This is what I call analysis
Private citizens can commission satellite imagery. It’s not cheap but it’s not insanely expensive either.
Covert Cabal, or whatever his channel name was (please correct me), has purchased several at different times and counted. Look it up. 🙂
Indeed, Covert Cabal is the supreme deity then
Yep, more proof I live in the future; “…so I paid to task a satellite to take some images.” Because regular video game references weren’t enough, you have to point out that what was once the purview of intelligence agencies alone is now something that anyone, civvies included can just pay to task an imaging satellite.
the amazing quality of your presentations aside, i too want to say how much i love your humor. not to much, not to little, just right! I hope you do *this* forever
I don't know why but "pigeons nesting in the autoloader" had me laughing my head off.
To quote John Oliver: For the love of God, DON'T GOOGLE BABY PIGEONS!
As long as the pigeons aren't having any tragic smoking accidents.
Yes, I realize that vehicles in storage won't have ammunition loaded, but pigeons are also hoarders, so ...
Pigeon poo is really quite corrosive. Quite a bit of work to get a pile of pigeon shit operational
I think it was last week where there was a "fire" at a bearing plant in Russia. If taken offline that has so many downstream effects some people just don't realize how critical a simple bearing is critical to modern life.
Ask the Germans in WWII.
@@michaelwaldmeier1601the Germans moved them to basements, tunnels, caves, wherever. Small mechanical parts are often not the best target, especially today, with additive manufacturing being able to make those parts in the field if necessary. Supply chain and key materials in bulk form that would take time to reconstitute are high payoff targets, particularly in the days prior to precision guidance and targeting, as would be specialized equipment like certain key specialized components of any system. Hence, in the end, we went after petroleum, since that product was, and still is mostly a fixed network with large production and bulk storage facilities. Today, small specialized high tech things like high end chips are embargoed.
Bearings have great bearing.
And bearing imports are sanctioned
Yeah. My scooter got its bearing damaged and it made itself difficult to drive and had been causing a lot of drag.
Go back 50 or 60 years and tell US and Soviet intelligence that a private citizen, an ENTERTAINER, could pay a not astronomical sum to just take orbital photos of their military sites and they would shit themselves.
German, 59. Unfortunately, it is very difficult for someone like me, who does not speak English as a mother tongue, to check these analyses for their truth content. So, in the end, I am content with the fact that the Russian Federation is surpassed by Italy in terms of economic power and that even Italy would probably not be able to stand up to the determined solidarity of Europe, North America and some countries from Asia and Oceania in the long term. This war remains bad and will last for years, but in this banal thought lies for me the certainty that Russian aggression in eastern Ukraine will sooner or later come to an end. Thanks to all who support Ukraine. We just keep going!
Your English usage and understanding is better than half the native born voting population of the US.
@@frankmiller95 I agree.
It is probably more to the credit of the translation programme (DeepL), but because a certain feeling for language is the prerequisite also for good translations, thank you.@@frankmiller95
Yep, and all of which underscores the role of attrition, but most of all, the importance of _Time..._ to get production, manpower, resources, tech supply, etc. to catch up with Demand, Time enuff for Western support to wane... and if all else fails, sufficient Time to simply pave the entire Donbas with mines and trenches all the way to the Sea of Azov.
That is some deep cope, delusion and ignorance, fed by Western Russophobic fascist propaganda. You are a great example of a "basic" European NATO supporter. Enjoy your economic decline, it has only just started.
"Because the Machine Spirits do not take kindly to people trying to divide things by zero." - this one made me really chuckle for a while
You can make a longer videos I don't think anybody would complain.
Love your content man.
I wish he'd do, but IIRC he puts so many hours into them, outside of his standard job, that I don't think it's even an option... and he has a gaming chanel on top of that...
New ! 4 hour PPT to make your Sunday extra special!
Anecdotes ain't data mate, and he has the data, and he's clearly a smart dude. I'm 100% certain he's looking at his metrics and tailoring the length of his presentations around what they say in terms of retention and watch time. Not to "exploit" the audience in any way mind you, simply to ensure that this solid info gets out to as many people as possible.
Even if his entire audience doesn't mind, the RUclips algorithm punishes any format changes. Uploading at similar times on similar days with similar video lengths is how you get in with the algorithm
They better not
Me: Finally, wrote the last word on my master thesis. coming home at 1 am, just want to chill and have a cold one
Also me: OH BOY! A one hour lecture about logistic? LET´S GOOO
Yep grandma agrees, and congrats.
I recently started a MBA program, and as a result I am taking an accounting class for the first time in my life. Having learned some of that knowledge has completely changed the impact of your videos for me, and dramatically increased my comprehension of the topic.
I think it would be a great service to your audience if you made a video going over some of the basics of the accounting equation - assets, liabilities, equity, revenues and expenses, gains and losses - and how those items relate to defense economics.
Just as an example, having knowledge of assets vs income makes your discussion of reactivated equipment classification much more impactful and enlightening.
The Russian drone production and likely contribution of China is the real issue and appropriately pointed out. This is scary, especially as the west is sitting on its tush... I'm sure Ukraine fully understands this. I don't know why our leaders don't. It's both baffling and excruciatingly frustrating to watch
At the same time, people are buying cheap Chinese drones for Ukraine. China is profiting from both sides, but giving Russia a bit of an edge with cheaper drones, but don't want to give them a kill code on Ukranian purchased Chinese drone because they will lose a customer.
maybe your leaders are not good guys, they lieka long war so they wana keep Ukraine jsut afloat and in it
I have to say this is something I've wondered for a while. For the west it might make sense to drag the war out. If Russia is forced to exhaust it's soviet stockpiles then Nato will no longer have to contend with it as a serious threat and will be able to divert a higher percentage of it's forces to countering/ deterring China. They have Russia right where they want them. In a position where they can beat them without having to declare war on them@@wawaweewa9159
I believe that the US recently announced a massive drone program appropriately called replicator.
@@wawaweewa9159yes let us treat russia like it's a literal child. Absolve it of any blame for this war
Quick survey: what do you think do US intelligence analysts do with these presentations? A) put them in CIA layout and present them as their own, B) give the presentation with the sound muted, C) just hit play and walk away.
They take the transcript, fill in the numbers they have and present it as their own.
"Sending constriptovich and then the T90Ms can roll" send me rolling xD
Thank you so much for all your videos.
I really like how you present the challenges for Ukraine and not make it feel like the war is totally one-sided, but still make your support for Ukraine known and explain Ukraine’s win-conditions
Its a shame russian production does not get attacked more
It's a shame not burning USA bases worldwide, then London, Paris, Washington and NewYork at minimum.
The sheer size if Russia is a bane and boon, bane because their air defense has to cover a large area leaving gaps to be exploited like Ukraine does, and book because the distance means less assets can reach them and the dispersion makes targets them difficult
The reasons this doesn't work can fill a whole one hour RUclips PowerPoint presentation... That's a lot of reasons.
In this conflict, the Ukrainians are using some resources inside of Russia to attack such infrastructure... even if it isn't the Ukrainians per-sè
That would be a rather extreme escalation, which obviously goes against Ukrainian policy/strategy or they'd already be hosing off Storm Shadows into Russia proper rather than restricting themselves to hitting militarily important targets in Crimea. They're continue to let Vlad be The Ones Who Escalates, and world opinion is largely on their side because of this. ;)
The big unknown is that nobody knows how huge the stockpiles were Russia inherited from the Soviet Union. The second unknown is, nobody knows how much was lost to neglicence and decay, sold on on the black market, expended in Chenchny, Syria and Ukraine pre-22, and how much was given to "friendly" dictatorships all over the world. But remember: this arsenal was intended for use in a WWIII. And Russia blew a significant part of it on Bakhmut.
Oh man....
That is right. But using old stockpiles has its downsides besides of decay. Take tanks: They are using tanks constructed or even build in the 50s now. They had other ammunition types than those of later years. So a new logistic problem is on them. Than there is also the problem of training the people on such things. And lastly, those tanks are even easier to destroy than those build in the 80s.
It's a pretty solid bet that a large chunk of the 'military support' that Russia is rumored to be seeking from North Korea is just a return of some of the stuff they've shipped to them over the years.
1. The Soviets lied about their production rates and quality for years. On everything. EVERYTHING. 2. Soviet stuff was in fair to average condition in the 80's. In the 90's it was abandoned, gutted, and stolen in large numbers. Not much changed until around the Georgia invasion. Those tanks and guns in the fields, have been through 35 russian winters, or more, on average, with at least a decade of near complete disregard. ... The west needs to remember that 1. Ukraine is being bullied for trying to join the EU and NATO, this is an insult and a threat. 2. The longer Ukraine has to wait for gear to get its land back, the more Putin looks like a reasonable leader, this war looks like a good deal, and the closer the west gets to seeing if the Kremlin was joking about Poland and the Baltics next.
@@up4open Just one addition to your list: The Ukraine had atomic weapons from the soviet era. When they split from the USSR, people where concerned and several nations gave security "guarantees" when Ukraine will give those weapons to the Russians.
If the Ukraine still would have had those weapons, Russia would never dared to attack.
As much I know, at least these nations gave guarantees: Russia, USA, GB. Russia just did not care about commitments they made just some decades ago. They do not care about truth or right and wrong. They just care about power and (unearned) profits.
Now the big question: How much better is the West today?
A nation which really was committed to the guarantees it once gave, could/should have said: You are attacked in blatant disregard of given commitments, we give you the weapons (back) to defend your self (atomic weapons). Instead the US and other countries are very eager to not "donate" to much, to not give more than the own military is willing to give away (much old stuff, easily to replace).
Well you can in fact increase production 3 fold with 20% increase of workforce if that workforce goes into reviving closed down production lines with existing tooling. For things like artillery+shells and old tanks refurbishing it's quite possible especially as the base before that would have been very low. Now this doesn't mean they produced much in absolute terms, but in relative it can sound impressive and may even be factually true in some cases.
This is what you do best. No one else compares with this.
My wife and I enjoy watching Perun's deep dive videos together. We both have something bordering on an obsession watching channels devoted to following the progress of Ukraine's brave fight against a terroristic invasion. Even as the months roll by, our interest hasn't waned. Slava Ukraini! 💙💛✊
Have you seen the kings and generals series in Ukraine? I would recommend it if you haven’t!
On*
Damn, you have a cool wife
@@ianrau6373 kings and generals??? nooo. He has A LOT of bias. if you want a non-biased approach then you should really be watching historylegends. Kings and general shouldn't be covering the war in my opinion. his bias overshadows his reason
@@j2ax136 True historylegends is non-bias but idk to perun though
I didn't know budgets, production indexs and corporate reporting was my favorite thing, until I met you. The PowerPoint GOAT.
Everywhere I go... I see defense economics...
You see Economics, of which Defense is but a part. Supply and demand. Capitalisation. The flow of dollars and cents driving pretty much everything we do collectively as a species.
It's fucking wild isn't it? I'm in my mid-40's and largely self-educated, ditched the Australian public school system before getting my HSC (Higher School Certificate), and I never thought I'd be this into Economics of all bloody things, nor find Defense Economics this fascinating and crucial to how the entire world works. Perun has opened my eyes to a whole bunch of stuff.
Great job on the channel. Happy to hear things are getting better for you!
Amazing episode, I loved the dive into Russias own figures and what we can learn from them.
As somebody with an degree in economics myself I know the theory (which is why last episode was less interesting) but I lack the data.
You always manage to present everything in a relatable way, there is never a questionmark about: "wtf is this conclusion, where does this number comes from, how can he make this assumption" or stuff like that.
I always recommend your videos to everybody - no matter if he is neutral, pro Ukraine or pro Russia. Because your videos always give a lot of valuable information in the most unbiased way possible and with the most data avaiable.
Will everything be 100% correct? No, of course not, that is the nature of war.
But I am absolutely sure that the big majority of everything you present and say will hold true and if somebody will rewatch the videos in 10 or 20 years he will say: Wow, that was some good thinking back then.
I look forward to his videos, big time. The most considered and reliable source of analysis anywhere. It is like my Sunday morning newspaper.
I recall, perhaps incorrectly, that you've mentioned that your area of specialization is military economics. If it is, I wonder if you could at some point (before years have gone by) attempt to assess how much this war is costing, particularly what it is costing Russia in all its aspects. That would be useful and interesting, even if it were limited to Fermi estimates or a survey of analysis published elsewhere.
It will definitely make Russia poorer, slowly but surely. Most importantly, it will produce a generation of cynical and often maimed men. Lots of women who cannot find a man, because so many young men have been killed. It will also slowly, but surely destroy Ukraine in similar ways.
Definitely one of your most valuable videos to date. For sure, nobody is doing this kind of leg work in terms of stat diving.
I only hope someone takes up Oryx's tasks with the same level of quality soon.
Congrats on putting out so much content you can reference your previous lectures as part of the current analysis. Thanks for the video.
Gotta have to thank you mate, your videos are informative and your humour on point and not tone deaf, and your style of presentation is clean and visually appealing with not too much or too little, I've taken inspiration from your presentations for the ones I do in school and I like it, I don't do it to blatantly steal, it's that I find your general style quite good and I wish I could do souch awesome presentations as you
I have to say that what really makes me smile are the jokes that are so carefully sprinkled amongst this very serious subject. Brilliant man.
It's always a delight to hear an expert bring otherwise inaccessible material to light, showing how it affects the course of events that matter to us all. I especially appreciate the wry comments you toss in: they aren't just funny, they make important points vivid and memorable.
I just realized that my favourite dominions 5 youtuber is the same person as my favourite military economy analyst youtuber. The quality of your content is without equal in this field. Keep up the good work, and we will keep watching :)
No. But I am going to really enjoy figuring out the nuances of that "no" by listening to you going into grand detail about it.
If Russia is running out of stuff, how come they're not running out of stuff?
@joshgulrud5635
What is submarine doing.
@@Apjooz Submarines go underwater. Wiki says they have 7 others in the area, and about 60 in total, though they are making more all the time. If you were asking what this particular one was doing at the time, it was in dry dock.
"It's hard to Enron everyone forever" - love that callback.
I don't think that anyone puts as much prep into their vids as you do, Perun. Massive respect!
Lots of people do. The secret is in the quality of commentary/delivery that comes after the research. ;)
I love your presentations about the war. I think I haven't missed a single one since you started posting them. I believe that the traditional approach, of stating a tesis and then going down to the details, works better than the mistery-murder approach.
In any case, thank you very much for sharing.
Definately haven't logged on multiple times today waiting for this. Keep up the good work and thank you from the United Kingdom!
I was wondering if you weren't going to post today. Thank god you did.
If I'm ever going to miss a week I'll absolutely try to get a community post up saying as much. I don't think I've fully missed a week in more than a year and I'd like to keep it that way.
@@PerunAU Your consistency is remarkable. Thanks for making my Sundays so much better!
Always insightful, many thanks! I always start my Monday with tea and a listen of your latest. Cheers!
I have been waiting for an analysis like this. Thank you so much!
Evening all 👍🏻🇦🇺🇺🇦 thank you Perun, love your work mate 👍🏻
This is easily one of my top 5 youtube channels these days
Can't say theres many creators I actively look out for or wait for an upload from, but I see Perun, I click on the spot
Great job as always, I really enjoy this sort of analysis. Keep up the good work!
Wow again the content was informative and broad based. How you do all the research and put it in a package that dummy like me can comprehend and do in a weeks time amazes me.. I plan on seeing your presentation hopefully every Sunday but it must be taxing on you. You really show that you love your work and are truly dam good at it. Haven't miss one yet and please continue to the best of your ability. Truly thank you. DARRIN R.
I'm going to make a complete guess... and say that the T80 is coming online more frequently because they still had enough of the tooling and equipment on hand and in usable condition that they can refurbish the hulls etc then they do for other tanks.
Russia also just announced they will be begin new hull production of T-80s
@@yoyo2598Russia announces all kinds of things: if you're still taking Russian announcements at face value I don't know what to tell you.
37:00 it should be noted that the T-80's reverse speed is a little over 10 km/h. About twice as fast as a T-72, but still very very slow by modern standards.
Leopard 2 and M1 Abrams have over 30 km/h, Leopard 1 still 25 km/h.
The primary reason is that Soviet tank designs wanted a very small transmission to keep their tanks light, small, cheap, and simple (which they actually achieved, relative to their armour and firepower). The alleged secondary one is that they wanted to foster a "forward mindset" rather than "encourage retreat" - I'm sceptical of that being a main reason, but it for example makes the poor reverse speed more acceptable to the political and military leadership rather than presenting it as the weakness that it is.
That is the original 80's era speed. Modernized is supposedly 25 km/h.
The tank being smaller makes it harder to hit because smaller target
@@jagx234 only in that obviously BS propaganda video they made, where they used a car spedometer (which wasn't even shown on camera, they were just "trust me bro") to gauge the tank's speed.
That was on a perfectly flat road and without showing the acceleration... and still clearly nowhere near 25 km/h.
@@T33K3SS3LCH3N I said supposedly for a reason ;) is just a spec on paper, but it's still the spec
@@T33K3SS3LCH3Nwatch the full video, not part of it
For all the CFAs out there, Perun is the Mark Meldrum of defense economics.
I would love to see an episode where you explain your whole peoces of collecting data, summarizing and turning it in a video.
You are very clear, concise, impartial, the content is deep enough to give a good understanding and your lecturing style is brilliant. Keep up the great work!
There is a hint of Molly Meldrum in there as well.
More like this. Its your strong suit and what brought me here. Also just a note --great journalism. In a time where I don't know if WaPo or NYT articles are machine written its great to because to find "real" journalism being down. Cheers mate.
The key to sanctions is significantly hindering Russia over the course of a long war. They will not stop the war, but they will make the war more costly to conduct. I think that the export sanctions are more impactful than the import sanctions. if Russian export revenue declines somewhat, and Russian export profits decline significantly (same number of barrels of oil but less profit per barrel), it will put a great deal of pressure on Russia's economy.
I do hope that the west gets off of its collective rear ends and starts pushing significantly more equipment to Ukraine.
And I hope that Russia will use nuclear weapons
@@user-dl3nc4jx7k i'm sure you do, bot
Russia sell oil and gas to Asia and Latin America above the price cap. To Europe through India as well. It's just doesn't works
Russia sell oil and gas to Asia and Latin America above the price cap. To Europe through India as well. It's just doesn't works
As a german. Why should i put up with the high energy and ridicolous food prices? Im all for ending thr sanctions
I can believe I watched a whole video about a military budget. It's amazing how when you are interested in something, you become interested in all the aspects about it. 😊
I like the Bob Marly reference 😊 My favorite artist
Why did NATO drag it's feet allowing F-16's to enter Ukraine service. Last January they were talking about contributing F-16's by July, now it's not happening until 2024. That's a lifetime in a situation like this
The problem is, you cant just give them to ukraine. They need complex mechanics training, and trained pilots. The training for an f16 fighter pilot takes at least 2 years
@@sH-ed5yf review the question. It takes 6 months to train up and bring them into the fight. Jan 2023 NATO was saying "July 2023 F16's", then nothing happens and now it's September and they are just getting around to starting this so hhe f16's show up for defense in 2025 instead of support for the 2024 offensive. A 6 month delay, digging in your ass about something you already said you'd do, is not training and logistics. Why did NATO sit on these when even December of 2022 they were talking about sending them by this summer. Everyone stop trying to impress everyone with what they think they know about systems and listen to the question being asked. The dumbest thing about my country, the United States, is every arguement about if guns in schools are a good idea or bad has to have 4 or 5 guys talking about AR 15 specs and proper training when tbe question is so far from that aspect the point gets lost.
@@sH-ed5yf million even just said they can train Ukrainian pilots in 3 months, because they are already pilots. So even that 2 year estimate is off. Aircraft maintenance? You fly it to Poland and Germany in between some sorties.
I am not a tank expert, but as I recall the T-72s have a diesel engine which requires a lengthy warm-up period in cold weather. The T-80 has a turbine which does not require a warmup period. So the T-80 is much better suited for cold weather combat than the T-72.
There is always a lot to learn from each Perun video.
I just cried this morning watching old videos about the start of this war. Im glad i can have an unemotional spreadsheet
You have to keep one thing in mind if you are a Russian strategist in Kremlin these days. The United States spent trillions ( _adjusted for inflation_ ) during the Cold War (in defense spending, intelligence, foreign aid to contain Communism, Technology races, etc...) to contain and push back against the Soviet Union. In 2023, the US can effectively not only contain, but cripple Russia technologically, financially and militarily by sending about 50-60 billion dollars worth of equipment to Ukraine, as well as providing intelligence, which is effectively free of charge since the US would have gathered than information anyway regardless of the Ukraine war. On top of that, most if not all of that money goes back into the US economy, since they are mainly buying from their own defense contractors situated inside the US, and the cherry on top is that the production scale of munitions and armament in the US is getting a sizeable boost essentially for free, which the US will surely utilize in the years to come for its own benefit. As long as the public perception in the US is pro-Ukraine, it's not only feasible but beneficial for the US government to keep supporting Ukraine.
American public is not pro Ukraine u dipshį1t Make up your mind.
And US foreign debt is how many trillions now? I just wonder when that can no longer be ignored.
@@odinsrensen7460 It can be ignored for as long as the world believes the Dollar to be valuable, which is for the foreseeable future.
Excellent vid. You mentioned several things I had noticed just by looking at the Oryx loss pages (which apparently will come to an end this month, Sept. 2023). The loss rate of T-80 and BMP-1 has increased quite a bit this year. My hypothesis is two-fold. For the BMP-1, it is low tech and easier to re-activate even if many of them are in sad shape from being left to rot for years in the harsh seasonal changes experienced by the storage facilities. Kind of the reason why old T-62s and T-54/-55s have been reactivated. Their components are not as advanced and require less training for the conscripts that are going to use them. But what of the T-80? It has been criticized for been a fuel hog and a maintenance headache because of its engine. From what I understand, it was used only in certain units at the beginning of the war (please correct me if I am wrong). When the war began, the Russians did not expect it to last very long. When the grim reality set in that it was going to be a long war of attrition, they begin to reactivate stored equipment. Of course, the got the machines that were in the best shape reactivated first. But as the went deeper and deeper into the stored vehicles, they reqired more work and more materials to get them into battlefield condition. The newest tanks, the T-90s, were of limited quantity. I doubt many are left in storage. The T-72 made up the largest percentage of tanks in storage, so there were likely plenty that coyld be reactivated relatively quickly. However, thousands were in poor condition and require significsnt work to get them ready for combat. I am sure many of the "new" T-72s showing up in Ukraine are refurbished and upgraded tanks from storage. I think this is the case for many BMP-1s. Those in the best shape were simply cleaned up and thrown into the fray. Others were rebuilt and some upgraded with the BTR-82A turret. As for the T-80, there were thousands in storage. I am guessing we are seeing more of them now because they were in generally better condition to the majority of T-72s in storage so they are easier to restore, thus we are seeing more of them on the battlefield. My guess is that we will eventually see their loss rate decline over time as their numbers can no longer be replaced with storage vehicles. Will new production tanks reach a point where they can replace loses? Probably not. Will remanufacture of T-72s reach a point where they can replace loses? Probably not, since the ones being hauled out of storage will require increasing amounts of work to get them into working condition. What then? What other relics will we see on the battlefield? The Russians have not yet reactivated any T-64s, though they really don't have many in storage. What other Cold War vehicles might we see? As pointed out in the video, a lot depends on the tempo of combat. If loses continue to be high, anything is possible. I am guessing we will see more BTR-80, -70, and even -60 APCs taken out of storage and used. We're already seeing a lot of "Mad Max" rigs out there with various small calibre guns from all manner of sources mounted on all sorts of vehicles, most importantly the MT-LB. Ukraine is in the same boat, though their McGuyver vehicles seem to be a bit better thought out. There is only so much old western equipment to turn over to Ukraine and only so much to pull out of storage (though the western equipment is in generally better shape). What happens then? Perhaps both sides will look to foreign sources of old Soviet-era and Russian equipment. There are literally thousands of old vehicles of this type around the world and I would guess more than a few nations would be willing to make a little money selling them off. This war could drag on for a lot longer, so it will be very interesting to see what shows up on the battlefield. T-34s anyone?
Why do you say Oryx is going to end after this month? Do you mean they are deciding to stop their efforts entirely?
@@thomaslove6494, the guy who runs it put message up saying he was moving on in October. Maybe someone is taking over, but it looks like it will be done soon.
@@gregwasserman2635 ah I gotcha.... Hopefully someone will take it over.... It is one of the few unbiased sources of info we have...
So one thing about the tanks we need to remember is that ammunition availability matters. If you have a new tank, but no ammo you might prefer to have an old tank and a bunch of ammo. Russians have used tanks as artillery pieces to provide fire support on the battle field. A tank is not a great artillery piece, but when you have a whole warehouse full of ammo, and plan on doing area bombardments, their could be a useful purpose for them.
@@cryptickcryptick2241yes, but it is a short term solution : tank guns wear out very quickly. Something like in the hundreds shots, compared to the thousands for an artillery piece.
Great work Perun - you lend strong analysis and expertise to this sad but inevitable conflict. Slava Ukraini
Well said. Heroyam Slava!
Ah. This ain't the "friends of Russia" annual meeting here?
@@flup350 You can like be a friend of the Russian people and their cultural achievements without being a follower of a genocidal corrupt incompetent like Vladimir Putin. He and his regime are enemies of the Russian people. A Ukrainian victory will help the Russian people achieve freedom.
Thanks yet again, Perun - gotta say I wouldn't have thought I'd be getting a full-scale military/intelligence/economics briefing every week on this war! :)
@PerunAU Hello, love the videos and I can't believe I've been consuming hour-long powerpoint presentations with this much gusto for so long. I understand you're not always under ideal situations for making these videos but I really appreciate the snipping them into chapters, I missed that this video.
Wonderful video Perun, thank you, awaiting eagerly for the next!