Quick update. Since recording this video, at least one HOF voter has revealed their Beltré-less ballot, meaning Beltré won't be a unanimous HOFer. You can read more here: www.telegram.com/story/sports/mlb/2023/12/21/bill-ballous-hall-of-fame-ballot-includes-just-manny-ramirez-a-rod/71997515007/
Unfortunate. I don't understand why some voters are like this, and also why there's no minimum number of guys voters have to vote for. I think 3-5 guys have to be voted for minimum.
@@zmr3352I agree with the 5 vote minimum, but I aslo agree with not automatically voting for someone just because its obvious. I might use the vote for Beltre (because hes gonna get in regardless) on someone thats bound to get less support. Someone like Torii Hunter or Mark Buehrle or Matt Holliday.
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@@FoolishBaileyGreat breakdown this year Bailey. One question I have if you would be so kind: Lou Pinella in the Veteran’s Committee got one vote away from the sounds of it. Should he be a Hall of Fame manager? As an M’s fan, I can’t wait till next year when Ichiro and Felix hit the ballot. Also, an idea someone mentioned in the comments that someone suggested: You and a couple other baseball RUclipsrs could all could do a mock simulation ballot over the years to see what Hall Of Fame you would all come up with.
James Fields hit Coco Crisp with a pitch at the first MLB game I ever attended as a child, which caused a bench clearing brawl and began a lifelong love of the sport for me. I will always be indebted to him for that.
Manny should also be remembered for giving us the greatest HR call in history from the Asian league he played for “that ball is long gone just like the exgirlfriend… never to return”
Nah, theres too much to nitpick with Ichiro. He should be, but I dont think he will. People will mention he didn't get to 60 WAR, he didn't hit for much power or draw a lot of walks, etc. And not everyone would count his Japan league stats as much as they should either. He had 4500 hits in his career. He was an elite defender, he ran well, he was a clubhouse leader, obviously he should get every vote. But I don't think it will be unanimous unfortunately. Compared to him though, Pujols has 700 home runs, 3000 hits, 100 WAR, he won the world series, he won a bunch of MVPs, there's really nothing to say against him. He even stole 100 bases.
@andrewbloom7694 All fair and accurate points. But Ichiro SHOULD still be unanimous 🤣 to come here at 27 years old and tally: ROY, MVP, All-Star Game MVP 2007, 10 consecutive 200 hit seasons (major league record), 262 hits in 2004 (single season record), 10 consecutive gold gloves, 10 time All-Star, and the first Japanese born position player to play in MLB, good grief man. The Pete Rose of the 2000s. In what universe is that not a fkn unanimous HOFer? And yeah.. Pujols.. he can be DOUBLE unanimous 😉
He should be but if Beltre won't be, I don't think Ichiro will be. Someone will nitpick the lack of home run power, walks or high OPS for his career, especially as a corner outfielder
Mariners fan here. Ichiro should make it in in ballot one, but I wouldn’t expect it to be unanimous. Some sabermetric voter may not vote for someone with a bWAR of exactly 60.0.
@@andrewbloom7694You serious, bruh? Tuffy Rhodes hit 13 homeruns in the MLB but 464 in Japan. A HOF candidate since he had so many AAA+ homeruns, right?
From 1998-2007, Jones had a gold glove EACH SEASON, 4 time all star, 3 times top 10 mvp votes, won every award except mvp in 2005, and always had AT LEAST 26 Home runs and 84 RBI's during that span per season. As a DEFENSIVE player. Tell me how he's NOT a hof
Let me make the case for Bobby Abreu, my FAVORITE PLAYER OF ALL TIME. Abreu got on base via hit, walk, or HBP 3979 times in his career. That’s good for 49th all-time. Here are the non-hall-of-famers in the top 50: “Cheaters:” Pete Rose, Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Rafael Palmeiro, Gary Sheffield, Manny Ramirez Future First Ballot HOF: Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Adrian Beltre That’s it. Everyone else is in. Just to name a few, some notable players outside the top 50 are hall of famers Tony Gwynn, David Ortiz, Fred McGriff, Ichiro, and future hall of famer Todd Helton. Abreu was elite at getting on base. In my opinion, he should be treated similar to a player with 3,000 hits. He got almost 2,500 while walking at least 100 times in 8 straight seasons. Abreu is 25th all-time in doubles, 20th in walks, stole 400 career bases at over a 75% success rate, had 2 30/30 seasons and 9 20/20 seasons, maintained almost a .300/.400/.500 slash line through his prime which lasted about 12 years, won a gold glove, and had a career 128 OPS+ through the height of the steroid era. He was durable, playing at least 150 games in 13 straight seasons. I think Abreu is overlooked unfairly because he was never an MVP candidate and his elite plate discipline prevented him from getting 3,000 hits. Think about it: if he had a lower walk rate/OBP, he might have gotten 3,000 hits and been first ballot while being a WORSE player. Abreu was a clean player in a steroid-riddled era and deserves to be remembered. THANK YOU
That's a great point, totally missed Staub! I think it's a neat stat. For example, Ichiro basically crawled to 3,000 hits playing way past when he was a good player. He's still well behind Abreu in times on base, which I think would surprise a lot of people. No disrespect, Ichiro is a clear hall of famer as well. I think 4,000 would be pretty good "automatic induction" territory similar to 3,000 hits. Though the existence of Rusty Staub certainly makes me question that now lmao.
I thought Abreu was a HOF when he retired, kinda forgot about him for a while, and hearing Bailey talk about him in this video made me look at his Baseball-Reference and go "hmm". After further review, I don't see why he's not even really close to making it. Consistent stud hitter with a great peak who was overlooked for MVP by the same guys who gave Jeter 8 billion Gold Gloves. Abreu should definitely be in.a
Any Twin's fan that is saying Mauer isn't a HOFer is just angry the guy made a lot of money, even though the owners are one of the richest families in baseball.
Foolish, I want to invoke the character clause in the positive direction for David Wright. It is so hard to quantify the value of his leadership abilities but, with a Hall of Fame trajectory and a universal praise for his intangibles, I feel that he deserves to be a Hall of Famer in the 6th-10th ballot years.
the counterargument as it stands for mauer as catcher is pretty simple; those ten seasons as catcher was a dominant stretch only cut short by injury. i think gaming a hall of fame case on the basis of Mauer’s full career would make sense if he switched to first base becauae, idk, he felt like it, but it wasn’t; it was concussion risks. that peak is a hall of fame peak. i think if you’ve spent your life at catcher and then are made to move from catcher due to health reasons, it’s valid to view him within his seasons as a catcher. on a purely objective level, is he the most sure grand slam 100% hall of famer ever? no - but i honestly haven’t seen a lot of people saying that. ALSO MORE TWINS FOR THE TWINS GODS! WE GOT OLIVA IN! THE NICK PUNTO PLAQUE IS COMING SOON! WE’RE MOVING THIS THING FROM COOPERSTOWN TO BLOOMINGTON PARK!
I definitely like Mauer for HOF, but it makes an interesting debate when you look at other comparable catchers. You've got Posey, Posada, and Molina like 10 WAR below him, but then they all stuck around at catcher. Posey was dominate but quit early, Posada was a consistent power hitter (for a catcher) and on a dominant team, and Yadi remained a defensive gem before and after his peak .I'll also mention Bill Freehan, since he's basically a slightly longer career Posey. Mauer is the better overall hitter than them all, but is it really fair to compare him to full time catchers if that's what gets him into the hall? Considering the wear and tear of the position, It feels like it might become an issue of "if you want to be a HOF catcher, just be a good hitter and switch to DH". Again, I still support him getting in, but I think it's a big enough issue to warrant a more broad discussion.
I agree that Bobby Abreu deserves to get continued consideration, so I'm glad he's getting votes (honestly, if I'm voting for Utley, I should be voting for Abreu too). There are several players in the recent past who never got multi-year consideration they deserved (Kevin Brown, Kenny Lofton, Jim Edmonds, etc.)
How did Jim Edmonds not get multiple years? Dude had almost 400 homers, hit .280, had an OPS over .900, and one of the best defensive CFers ive ever seen. Thats a crime.
Lofton had the misfortune of retiring after 2007, and appearing for the first time on the incredibly stacked ballot of 2013 (someone should take a retrospective look at that ballot; there were six players who got 5% for the first time, every player on the Era Committee last year except Albert Belle was there, there were a total of ten players who have since made it to Cooperstown, and the ballot in 2013 was so stacked that nobody was elected).
The past few weeks have involved me coming to terms with the fact that Jose Bautista is probably not even going to receive a single vote or stay on the ballot for a year, but it makes me feel good to at least see him get narrativeballed by Baily.
Adrian Gonzalez’s Padres tenure secured him in my heart as one of my favorite players of all time. I grew up as a Padres fan in Illinois thanks to my father being from San Diego, and we would end up seeing them in Milwaukee in 2010 and in St. Louis on Opening Day, 2011. I was so mad he wasn’t a Padre anymore; only got to see him once. Seminal moments of my childhood. Anyways, this is a massive block of text, and TL;DR hearing kind words about him at the tail end of this video made me very happy. Thanks for the content you make.
This year's ballot really asks how we value peak vs longevity. It's some of the post-PED era's best that were cut short by injury. I personally am inclined to reward overwhelming peaks over just hanging around being maybe average.
The question I have given that peak vs longevity is brought up these days is what players would not have been put in the Hall of Fame if peaks were all we ever went off of, and all the data we have now was understood, accepted and available from the jump?
I can understand your point but being good for all of your say 18 year career as opposed to being great for 7 is better to me or at the very least equal.
@@deathminder9206In my opinion if you are great for five years at least, then we are talking about a great peak, and personally I favor peak performance. Though above average play for a more lengthy period (say 17 years or longer) can certainly outdo a short but dominant peak, but that play must be sustained for long periods. Also, there are some who I’d call Hall of Very Good. Those being the players who have the top peaks not in Cooperstown at their position; sabermetrically in particular (ex: Nomar Garciaparra and Troy Tulowitzki for shortstops). Players who I think should have gotten more consideration than they did (ex: Lou Whitaker). Players who made the Hall of Fame who I personally wouldn’t have put in (ex: Jack Morris, Rabbit Maranville). And those who got to the end of their writers ballot eligibility after 1990 but aren’t in Cooperstown are also Hall of Very Good in my book (ex: Mickey Lolich, Dale Murphy, and among those on this ballot, Sheffield will do so and Vizquel also will likely do so in a few years). I say 1990 because there were position players who didn’t even get to 35 WAR and stayed on the ballot through their eligibility, and who would be consensus one and dones now in all likelihood. Could that be fair to argue?
I would say since Hack Wilson is in the HoF David Wright should be too, he was also a similar player at least offensively until his career was derailed at age 30
@@GalacticRepublic_CT-1977 if Howard doesn’t get hurt or come up late at 25 he easily hits 500 homers and is hof dudes prime was insane hitting 58,48 47,48,33, homers and 140-150 rbi in those 5 years is insane
@@frankanuzzi9740 I know, that’s why he’s my all time favorite. Just saying that as a little kid I thought he’d easily be there, but I was wrong because he was never the same after the ACL tear
Mauer also checks those other boxes that voters look at (and are supposed to look at) regarding character and whatnot. Squeaky clean record and persona, only one team and that team being his home team on top of it, didn’t punch Phil Cuzzi in the nose even though it absolutely would have been warranted.
If you are sympathetic to Mauer's injury, then Mauer is a first ballot Hall of Famer. If you are not, then he is a Hall of Famer that gets on before he falls off the ballot. That is all there is to it - Foolish used the term, but didnt actually properly account for it in his analysis. Poor form, Foolish. Poor form.
Hi I posted this last year but I’d like to see how a group of baseball fans given the same rules and criteria as the writers would do in creating their own HOF. Start at like the 1980 ballot and run through their own ballots. Then see how their results compare to the current HOF when they get to the current year or 5 years beyond.
Suggestion: Since you labeled David Wright a Hall of Very Good career. I would be curious to hear what players at each position you would consider Hall of Very Good. Edit: In my opinion there are four types of players that I would consider to have had a “Hall of Very Good” career: 1. Those who should have been given further consideration and did not get it (ex: Joe Nathan, Lou Whitaker) 2. Those who made the Hall of Fame that I personally wouldn’t have put in (ex: Jack Morris, Rabbit Maranville) 3. Players who reached the end of their writers ballot eligibility after 1990 (ex: Dale Murphy, Tommy John, and on the current ballot Gary Sheffield and possibly Omar Vizquel; as for others, we’ll see). And 4. The best five or so peaks at each position among those not covered by 1-3 (ex: Nomar Garciaparra and Troy Tulowitzki).
I believe somehow someone convinced the voters to put in practically the entire New York Giants team in the hall, look up the New York Giants and you will see names like Freddie Lindstrom in the HOF when there is no way he honestly belongs, along with many others from that Giants team
Frankie Frisch actually helped 6 of his old teammates in, 1. Freddie Lindstrom 2. Chick Hafey 3. Jessie Haines 4. George "High pockets" Kelly 5. Travis Jackson 6. Dave Bancroft All of these guys have careers that were good, however not nearly Hall worthy
@@GamesSavedMyLifeOf those players, I would argue that Bancroft and Jackson are closer to being a Hall of Famer than the other four; their career WAR totals are in the 40’s, with Bancroft having a total as high as 7.4 in 1921. High Pockets is the worst of those players by sabermetric stats. For perspective, his career WAR total of 25.6, as a first baseman primarily, is lower than Joe Nathan; a reliever that went one and done a couple years ago (one who should’ve gotten another look, and I’d call Hall of Very Good for that; but the point stands). Of the others, Hafey in particular deserves mention for having a 133 career OPS+, and averaging 151 over 1927-1931 (a stretch where he came two points of OBP short of averaging .300/.400/.500 over five seasons)
Rabbit Maranville is an interesting case because he was not a controversial selection at the time and he was considered to be an elite shortstop by contemporaries It did take him a while to get in Probably got in because he was a generational great in fielding, as in Luis Aparicio/Mark Belanger/Ozzie Smith/Andrelton Simmons level great I guess if you are truly elite at something it gives you a 50-50 shot of getting in
My soft criteria for HoVG would be roughly this: 1. 35-50 WAR with good acolades/ postseason; reflects a player who was probably exceptional for a short period of time but took too long to develop or got injured or whatever. 2. 40-55 WAR with weak acolades/ postseason; reflects a player who avoided setbacks and generally played well for a very long time, but was rarely if ever a standout. These numbers are of course a bit flexible. That said, at fewer than 30 WAR, you just didn't produce enough over your career to be in this discussion, and at a scandal-free 60+ WAR it's really hard to find a way to say you're not a true HoFer.
@@Karmy. So? David Ortiz was known for his violent ejections and dugout tantrums, including that time where he smashed a telephone up right next to his teammates, and had dubious connections to PEDs (which probably weren’t legit but other Hall-caliber players have been excluded for those exact connections). And the man was a no-doubt First Ballot Hall of Famer. Not defending the slide, but many Hall of Famers have done worse and not had it held against them
Jack Morris has a Career ERA that starts with a 4 and no hardware like MVP or Cy YOungs but he's a Hall of Famer because the BBWAA is so blatant in it's favoritism it's insane.
Some older voters are of the mindset that players who performed the game’s biggest moments should be in on that alone. Morris I’d say is a Hall of Very Good caliber career.
You really should be invited to join the BBWAA given your writng quality and overall reach and success. I'm still outraged that you couldnt even get a pass for the winter meetings!
I really appreciate your analysis of Utley. He was my idol as a teen, was lucky to see him play into my late 20s. He was the guy that you love to have on your team but would hate to have to face. Old school, ran as hard as he could regardless of the score. Sacrificed his body on the reg. He really was the second best player behind Pujols from 2005-2009. His defense was severely underrated considering he came up playing on astroturf at the Vet. Once he got on grass everyday, the guy always made the fundamental plays. I think he especially was robbed of a gold glove in 2014. He was a late bloomer in his development, although he was also blocked at second base by Placido Polanco. And obviously, the knee injuries really hurt his chances. It was still nice to see him get a few good seasons in coming back from that. I’ve read that Utley had to learn how to reposture his body to stand, walk and run differently to take the pressure off his knees, which was due to his body type. Other players have had to do this as well, Jose Reyes being one of them. Anyways, yeah, would be great if he gets in!
As a twins fan there's a lot of grumpy old people that don't like Mauer around here so the reaction you got was probably people who have had to deal with the grumpy people too much and just instinctively yelled at you.
I love David Wright, however if Don Mattingly isn’t in the hall, Wright can’t be either, that being said, I probably would vote for both because it was so clear how dominant they were before injuries.
The Mauer candidacy is the most interesting to me. He clearly was the best player at his position for an entire decade, and you usually expect those players to get in. But the shorter career, position switch, and lack of postseason success will probably hurt him. I also think his candidacy will be an interesting preview of how Buster Posey gets treated down the road
I grew up in Minnesota, and I will certainly preface my argument with an admission of that bias. However, I feel like Mauer’s value goes somewhat under appreciated because of a lack of longevity. My counter argument though is that catchers take a beating by simply manning their position; and this is something that seems pretty unique to that position. We hear a lot about the physical skill sets that are required to play shortstop or center field, but think of the amount of time that players at those positions spend simply standing still in the field. I don’t mean to minimize the difficulty of playing at either of those spots, but they don’t take a physical toll the way crouching behind the plate does. This is why I believe that valuing peak is more important at the catcher position than at others. Among catchers, Mauer ranks fifth in WAR7 and seventh in JAWS. And the seasons that were used in creating those rankings featured Mauer at catcher more than 75% of the time. I also feel like people who hate on Mauer often compare him to players who never played catcher in the big leagues. I’ve heard him compared unfavorably to Derek Jeter, Ichiro, and even guys like A-Rod and Miggy. Those guys are all legendary players, and I’m not trying to contend that Mauer was better than them, but it’s also an unfair comparison given that none of them played a position as physically tough as Mauer’s. I don’t think that it would be unreasonable to say that Mauer would likely have had a better, and longer, offensive career if he played a different position during his prime. I completely understand what you’re saying about him in this video, but I figure I had to share at least a few thoughts on my favorite player from my childhood.
Mauer should have been moved to 3B day one in MLB to add 5 years to his career. Also, BA is a hollow stat.. RBI's are not hollow. Mauer's RBI annual average? .306/12/80 rbi's. Texas Twins fan.
Gosh Bailey, I’ve been a follower for a few years now and I typically agree with you on 95% of how you talk ball. I do disagree with you on Utley, for a few reasons, but super respect your opinion and I see it- I just can’t wrap my brain around it. As a Mets fan, love everything you had to say about our captain- but I think he’s going to be denied simply due to service time. It’s heartbreaking man, he’s my hero, but I think he’s going to get dropped in a year or two off the ballot.
All I can say is, if Chase Utley gets in, David Wright HAS to get in. Utley played 352 more games than Wright, and only had 108 more hits, 17 more HRs and 55 more RBIs. That's like half of a healthy David Wright season Wright's slash line is better, He was the face of a franchise and beloved by most baseball fans, unlike Utley, and if we're going by "didn't play enough" or "doesn't have enough WAR", then let's take Sandy Koufax out of the hall of fame. The baseball hall of fame needs to stop having such warped standards 🤦🏽♂️
You’re speaking like Utley wasn’t the face of the most successful period of a franchise that had been around for over 100 years. Forget Rollins, Howard, and Hamels. Utley WAS the Phillies from 2006-2012.
I hope Torii stays on the ballot because he played for the Twins and Tigers and I'm a Tigers fan from Minnesota and he was just fun to watch and I like reminiscing about seeing him play.
@@TheGilchrist707Side note about Robinson Cano: He has the highest bWAR in baseball over 2010-2014. He might not be a Hall of Famer, but he also had a really good peak.
@@Sticktothemodelslincecum had 2 great seasons with the rest being nothing special to downwright bad. Chase Utley had 7 great seasons in a row. Utley was way more deserving than Lincecum.
When people say Joe Mauer is. HOFer, you have to compare him to other catchers. Not 1st basemen and Center fielders and 3rd basemen, etc. He deserves to be in the HOF.
the knock against Mauer is having a short career as catcher. He's like the position player version of Tim Lincecum. You say don't compare him to other 1st basemen, but he basically played first and DH'd for half his career.
@thomassexton6783 I do not understand this framing of it, I am really baffled that it's how Baily (who I really respect on baseball) framed it like this. It's kinda irrelevant to the argument, Mauer had around 800 games as one of the best hitting catchers ever and a very good defensive one, his peak from the vast majority of metrics, is worthy of being a hall lf famer, that's what people who want mauer in for. And during his peak, yes sometimes he did DH a bit more then most catchers could/would especially near the end of his career as a catcher...but he was still primarily a catcher those years? It's not like it was ever half and half, he still mostly played catcher and he was still really really great. And sure 900 games as a catcher is a bit low but when it's almost all a hall of fame worthy peak
@@deadhardy But what he's being compared as his, his peak...happened well he was a everyday catcher ? Like honestly what is this argument, I feel like people think it's more of a gotcha then it actually is, or like super semantics almost. People want Mauer in for what he did AS a catcher, when people compare him to other catchers, they primarily use his time as a catcher, no one is under the false assumption that his entire career was a catcher, then view his time where he was a everyday catcher who because of injuries or rest dh'd 20 times a year and played a some 1st base here and there due to injuries. And please don't use lincecum as a comparison, Timmy had 2 elite years and 2 solid ones before being just bad the rest of his career, Mauer played as a catcher a majority of the time for 9 years, where he really only had 1 average season due to injuries (2.1fWar in 2011 where he played 82 games), and almost every other was all star quality.
I am a fourth-generation Twins fan in a hardcore Twins family and as such, I am incapable of judging Joe Mauer objectively, not just because of that but because his career spanned my childhood into my teenage years and so when I say "Joe Mauer was my childhood" I mean that very literally. I personally think he's a first ballot hall of famer, but that's an incredibly biased opinion. I'll say that I think his character and one-team career will help him a lot, especially for more old-school voters who may be less impressed by his counting stats and lack of longevity as a catcher. When it comes to Torii Hunter, he was probably the first player I knew by name and I had his jersey, and when he left the Twins as a free agent to join the Angels I was absolutely devastated. I didn't know that baseball players could change teams and so suffice to say it was a rude awakening.
The Bat Flip by Joey Bats was a huge moment in baseball history b/c it changed the convo on cellies in the game. The No Fun brigade started to lose the fight, and now you see bat flips everywhere
The argument with Joe Mauer is that he’s the greatest catcher in the last 40 years who had a short career half of which he didn’t play catcher for. It’s all about if you feel ok with making that player a HoFer
Idk. Mauer has the HOF catcher vibes, but in terms of value accumulated solely as a catcher I think there are better guys not in the Hall. That being said, I think the Hall has an unfairly high standard for catchers and 2nd basemen as opposed to pitchers, for example.
You mentioned that it's an honor to be listed on the hall of fame ballot. I wonder who the best players never to make it on the ballot at all. I'm just curious where that line is cut.
There are ways to get in for writers for websites. I'd think he has a case because it is writing and editing, and he is one of the more stat guys, so I would hope he gets in.
I understand why Chase Utley might have been seen as a “tool” kind of player, and I especially sympathize with those who are upset at him for the Tejada slide. But outside of that one incident, which came at the very end of his career mind you, Chase Utley might go down as one of the most beloved Philadelphia athletes of all time. An absolute fan favorite of the phenomenal Phillies core that went to two World Series and could have gone to even more. Even if he might not have the best reputation outside of Philadelphia, Utley is absolutely revered in his hometown in a way that Rollins, Abreu, and Howard simply aren’t, and I hope that factor helps his chances getting into the Hall of Fame.
My mock ballot compared to yours: - Carlos Beltrán (only 2nd year, and I still feel like the trash cans should keep him out until at least year 6) - A-Rod, who can very simply @$%# right off (also, I abhor the phrase "girl boss," and I'd love for you to find another way to describe his publicity effort) - Chase Utley because it's his first year on the ballot, and I'm not concerned that he won't get 5% + Bartolo Colón for longevity, pitching 190.33 innings in his age 40 season (2013) with a 147 ERA+ (there's a great Stathead query for you), and the fact that he's one of the most *famous* pitchers of the 21st century + Matt Holliday, towards whom I'm admittedly biased as an STL fan, but I'd hate to see him go one-and-done. His career OPS+ is 132, just a hair under Todd Helton's, and he had a very long peak of 10 years (2006-15) with every season's OPS+ >= 120 and the total average OPS+ of 141. Add in the 2,000+ hits and 300+ HRs, and I think he's got a case better than you presented. + Francisco "K-Rod" Rodríguez because 10.8% is concerningly low for such a good RP.
One thing that we (and by retrospective extension) forgot to account for when predicting HOF'ers is the Tri-State bias. Being a very popular, productive player in the tri-state area gives your HOF case a very real boost. David Wright on Angels or Athletics wouldn't even be a conversation.
Mauer should be in the HoF but I think the fact he was a 1B might hamper him especially given if you look at raw stats. Paul Konerko isn't a HoFer and has better stats. However if Buster Posey is a HoFer I can't understand if you dismiss Mauer.
Knowing what we know now about concussions, is hard to hold the back half of Mauer's career against him. Dude was still a league average hitter when he couldn't see straight cause his bell was rung too hard from a foul ball hitting his mask
@@fortynights1513 Mauer had a severe concussion in August 2013 from a foul ball off his mask. The symptoms lasted for months and he was very sensitive to light and sound. He was at risk of worse outcomes if he suffered more concussions. He never played catcher again (other than his 1 pitch farewell). He did have another concussion in 2018 diving for a ball and retired at the end of the season.
MLB the Show 23 and Chris Singleton going on about "good slider, excellent fastball" and then always going on in the next bat to "reminds me of Johan Santana" and just talking way too long about foul balls and batters being in-between on their timing has poisoned me against Johan Santana (and also tempted me to change every pitcher's slider into a slurve in franchise mode) so Bartolo Colon definitely deserved that 2005 Cy Young
wow stathead looks really useful, but the subscription is a bit pricy. if only there was a code which could provide me some discount of perhaps 20% off the first year
1) The fact that Jim Edmonds was one and done shows how absurdly high the bar is set for outfielders. 2) Someone could defend a continued vote for Vizquel by pointing out that Ty Cobb is in the Hall. He once beat up a disabled fan ... for suggesting that Cobb was biracial.
The one thing I'd say about Beltrán's case is that other 2017 Astros have said that he sort of browbeat or intimidated people into going along with the cheating, which they also say was his idea. Even A.J. Hinch was apparently intimidated by him. If it was just A.J. Hinch saying it it would obviously just be scapegoating to get management out of hot water, and even for the other players it's at least partly CYA but I do think that's a concern for the HoF Committee. Using his stature as a shoo-in Hall of Famer to get younger players to go along with him and threaten their careers if they didn't is pretty ugly if it's true.
Bailey, the Astros video assistant named Beltran as the player who proposed the stealing system. We can’t pretend it’s all circumstantial. And he basically wasn’t punished since he’s an assistant to the GM for the Mets.
People ignore Billy Wagner’s horrendous playoff numbers. He was the left-handed Craig Kimbrel. Dominant in the regular season, but could never trust him in high leverage situations.
@@MM33003Postseason success is great to have, and if Wagner had it he could’ve been in a few years earlier, but playoff failures aren’t a reason I wouldn’t vote for someone.
I think my only slight disagreement with baileys ballot is I probably leave buehrle off. Tim Hudson got bounced the second year on the ballot, and mark buehrle is basically Tim Hudson statistically, so I don’t quite feel like buehrles a hall of famer
Thank you Bailey for accurately describing how the Astros scandal went with Beltran. I am no Astros fan and don’t benefit whatsoever from defending him. That call absolutely came from higher up than him and he was the only player implicated cuz he was the only one that had retired and subject to the sole blame which is just not true.
The way I see it is, if Bonds and Clemens arent in, any other suspected steroid user should not get in, because Bonds and Clemens are miles above anyone else in terms of position player/pitcher
I just feel closers need more love and recognition in the hall. The Hall of Fame is supposed to be the best of the best at their positions to play the game yet closers get shafted. Of the top 10 save leaders of all time, only 4 are in the hall. I'm hoping Kimbrel and Jansen might give the position a boost in years to come and make people reevaluate KRod and Nathan.
I'm glad you mentioned it at 8:26, cause honestly what gave me the ick on Chase Utley is how he played the game. I can't stand that old mentality of "play hard". Chase Utley played so overtly hard that they changed the rules. He ended a young Ruben Tejada's promising career, single handedly, and did it without a care in the world. Clapped as he walked away from a writhing Tejada on the ground. I'd never put that guy on a ballot for that alone. Complete lack of character or care for his fellow ballplayer.
Quick update. Since recording this video, at least one HOF voter has revealed their Beltré-less ballot, meaning Beltré won't be a unanimous HOFer. You can read more here: www.telegram.com/story/sports/mlb/2023/12/21/bill-ballous-hall-of-fame-ballot-includes-just-manny-ramirez-a-rod/71997515007/
An absolute disaster
Unfortunate. I don't understand why some voters are like this, and also why there's no minimum number of guys voters have to vote for. I think 3-5 guys have to be voted for minimum.
This man should have his ballot taken away for voting in obvious steroid guys
The timing of posting it after it came out lolol
@@zmr3352I agree with the 5 vote minimum, but I aslo agree with not automatically voting for someone just because its obvious. I might use the vote for Beltre (because hes gonna get in regardless) on someone thats bound to get less support. Someone like Torii Hunter or Mark Buehrle or Matt Holliday.
Mark Buehrle deserved better for being such a great speedrunner
Petition to start the Baseball Speedrunning Hall of Fame with Mark Buehrle as its inaugural inductee
Hosted by summoning salt
@@thenightrider2121I’m in
That behind the back throw to first should put him in the hof by default
I loved betting on him, especially in afternoon games, it would be over and he would win in under 2 hours
I know the views haven’t been what you’d hoped for (darn hackers ☹️), but this has been my favorite year of Foolish content!! Every video both here and the main channel are instant classics I find myself coming back to again and again. Thanks again and here’s hoping for an even better 2024 🎉
thank you. that means a lot right now
@@FoolishBaileyGreat breakdown this year Bailey.
One question I have if you would be so kind:
Lou Pinella in the Veteran’s Committee got one vote away from the sounds of it. Should he be a Hall of Fame manager?
As an M’s fan, I can’t wait till next year when Ichiro and Felix hit the ballot.
Also, an idea someone mentioned in the comments that someone suggested:
You and a couple other baseball RUclipsrs could all could do a mock simulation ballot over the years to see what Hall Of Fame you would all come up with.
@@FoolishBaileyThe patreon squad has got your back 😤
James Fields hit Coco Crisp with a pitch at the first MLB game I ever attended as a child, which caused a bench clearing brawl and began a lifelong love of the sport for me. I will always be indebted to him for that.
Everytime I see the footage of that brawl I am constantly amazed by how Shield's punch was thrown at a perfect three-quarter arm slot mechanic
Manny should also be remembered for giving us the greatest HR call in history from the Asian league he played for “that ball is long gone just like the exgirlfriend… never to return”
That's honestly the best part of that. Not just the call, but that it was for Ramirez
CPBL
@@蘇東坡-p9u thank you I forgot the league and didn’t want to guess
Bailey mentioned Albert Pujols may be the next UNANIMOUS hall of fame electee. However, I think Ichiro may have next dibbs on that.
Nah, theres too much to nitpick with Ichiro. He should be, but I dont think he will. People will mention he didn't get to 60 WAR, he didn't hit for much power or draw a lot of walks, etc. And not everyone would count his Japan league stats as much as they should either. He had 4500 hits in his career. He was an elite defender, he ran well, he was a clubhouse leader, obviously he should get every vote. But I don't think it will be unanimous unfortunately.
Compared to him though, Pujols has 700 home runs, 3000 hits, 100 WAR, he won the world series, he won a bunch of MVPs, there's really nothing to say against him. He even stole 100 bases.
@andrewbloom7694 All fair and accurate points. But Ichiro SHOULD still be unanimous 🤣 to come here at 27 years old and tally: ROY, MVP, All-Star Game MVP 2007, 10 consecutive 200 hit seasons (major league record), 262 hits in 2004 (single season record), 10 consecutive gold gloves, 10 time All-Star, and the first Japanese born position player to play in MLB, good grief man. The Pete Rose of the 2000s. In what universe is that not a fkn unanimous HOFer?
And yeah.. Pujols.. he can be DOUBLE unanimous 😉
He should be but if Beltre won't be, I don't think Ichiro will be. Someone will nitpick the lack of home run power, walks or high OPS for his career, especially as a corner outfielder
Mariners fan here. Ichiro should make it in in ballot one, but I wouldn’t expect it to be unanimous.
Some sabermetric voter may not vote for someone with a bWAR of exactly 60.0.
@@andrewbloom7694You serious, bruh? Tuffy Rhodes hit 13 homeruns in the MLB but 464 in Japan. A HOF candidate since he had so many AAA+ homeruns, right?
For me this is the most anticipated Foolish Bailey content of the year. Greetings from Finland!
It still surprises me that Andrew Jones isn't in the HoF. Like he said, best defensive player at his position and over 400 HR's. It's a no brainer
He also beats his wife, if you don’t allow cheaters in you shouldn’t allow people with domestic abuse violations
he's also a wife beater
The really bad end to his career probably had some writers keep him off the ballot when that was in recent memory.
I agree
From 1998-2007, Jones had a gold glove EACH SEASON, 4 time all star, 3 times top 10 mvp votes, won every award except mvp in 2005, and always had AT LEAST 26 Home runs and 84 RBI's during that span per season. As a DEFENSIVE player. Tell me how he's NOT a hof
Bailey is inheriting the Mark Buehrle Fan Club president position from Hawk Harrelson
Let me make the case for Bobby Abreu, my FAVORITE PLAYER OF ALL TIME.
Abreu got on base via hit, walk, or HBP 3979 times in his career. That’s good for 49th all-time. Here are the non-hall-of-famers in the top 50:
“Cheaters:” Pete Rose, Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Rafael Palmeiro, Gary Sheffield, Manny Ramirez
Future First Ballot HOF: Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Adrian Beltre
That’s it. Everyone else is in. Just to name a few, some notable players outside the top 50 are hall of famers Tony Gwynn, David Ortiz, Fred McGriff, Ichiro, and future hall of famer Todd Helton.
Abreu was elite at getting on base. In my opinion, he should be treated similar to a player with 3,000 hits. He got almost 2,500 while walking at least 100 times in 8 straight seasons.
Abreu is 25th all-time in doubles, 20th in walks, stole 400 career bases at over a 75% success rate, had 2 30/30 seasons and 9 20/20 seasons, maintained almost a .300/.400/.500 slash line through his prime which lasted about 12 years, won a gold glove, and had a career 128 OPS+ through the height of the steroid era. He was durable, playing at least 150 games in 13 straight seasons.
I think Abreu is overlooked unfairly because he was never an MVP candidate and his elite plate discipline prevented him from getting 3,000 hits. Think about it: if he had a lower walk rate/OBP, he might have gotten 3,000 hits and been first ballot while being a WORSE player. Abreu was a clean player in a steroid-riddled era and deserves to be remembered. THANK YOU
some great points
You cooked
Should we have a career times on base club instead of raw hits?
Also, Rusty Staub will never be in Cooperstown and he’s 46th in career times on base.
That's a great point, totally missed Staub! I think it's a neat stat. For example, Ichiro basically crawled to 3,000 hits playing way past when he was a good player. He's still well behind Abreu in times on base, which I think would surprise a lot of people. No disrespect, Ichiro is a clear hall of famer as well.
I think 4,000 would be pretty good "automatic induction" territory similar to 3,000 hits. Though the existence of Rusty Staub certainly makes me question that now lmao.
I thought Abreu was a HOF when he retired, kinda forgot about him for a while, and hearing Bailey talk about him in this video made me look at his Baseball-Reference and go "hmm". After further review, I don't see why he's not even really close to making it. Consistent stud hitter with a great peak who was overlooked for MVP by the same guys who gave Jeter 8 billion Gold Gloves. Abreu should definitely be in.a
I can’t believe you didn’t mention Home Run Baker on that list right behind David Wright. An all time baseball name.
Any Twin's fan that is saying Mauer isn't a HOFer is just angry the guy made a lot of money, even though the owners are one of the richest families in baseball.
Foolish, I want to invoke the character clause in the positive direction for David Wright. It is so hard to quantify the value of his leadership abilities but, with a Hall of Fame trajectory and a universal praise for his intangibles, I feel that he deserves to be a Hall of Famer in the 6th-10th ballot years.
the counterargument as it stands for mauer as catcher is pretty simple; those ten seasons as catcher was a dominant stretch only cut short by injury.
i think gaming a hall of fame case on the basis of Mauer’s full career would make sense if he switched to first base becauae, idk, he felt like it, but it wasn’t; it was concussion risks. that peak is a hall of fame peak. i think if you’ve spent your life at catcher and then are made to move from catcher due to health reasons, it’s valid to view him within his seasons as a catcher.
on a purely objective level, is he the most sure grand slam 100% hall of famer ever? no - but i honestly haven’t seen a lot of people saying that.
ALSO MORE TWINS FOR THE TWINS GODS! WE GOT OLIVA IN! THE NICK PUNTO PLAQUE IS COMING SOON! WE’RE MOVING THIS THING FROM COOPERSTOWN TO BLOOMINGTON PARK!
I definitely like Mauer for HOF, but it makes an interesting debate when you look at other comparable catchers. You've got Posey, Posada, and Molina like 10 WAR below him, but then they all stuck around at catcher. Posey was dominate but quit early, Posada was a consistent power hitter (for a catcher) and on a dominant team, and Yadi remained a defensive gem before and after his peak .I'll also mention Bill Freehan, since he's basically a slightly longer career Posey. Mauer is the better overall hitter than them all, but is it really fair to compare him to full time catchers if that's what gets him into the hall? Considering the wear and tear of the position, It feels like it might become an issue of "if you want to be a HOF catcher, just be a good hitter and switch to DH". Again, I still support him getting in, but I think it's a big enough issue to warrant a more broad discussion.
I agree that Bobby Abreu deserves to get continued consideration, so I'm glad he's getting votes (honestly, if I'm voting for Utley, I should be voting for Abreu too). There are several players in the recent past who never got multi-year consideration they deserved (Kevin Brown, Kenny Lofton, Jim Edmonds, etc.)
How did Jim Edmonds not get multiple years? Dude had almost 400 homers, hit .280, had an OPS over .900, and one of the best defensive CFers ive ever seen. Thats a crime.
@@zackaryhaselius2226couldn't agree more. He'll probably get in on the veterans committee one day.
Lofton had the misfortune of retiring after 2007, and appearing for the first time on the incredibly stacked ballot of 2013 (someone should take a retrospective look at that ballot; there were six players who got 5% for the first time, every player on the Era Committee last year except Albert Belle was there, there were a total of ten players who have since made it to Cooperstown, and the ballot in 2013 was so stacked that nobody was elected).
The past few weeks have involved me coming to terms with the fact that Jose Bautista is probably not even going to receive a single vote or stay on the ballot for a year, but it makes me feel good to at least see him get narrativeballed by Baily.
I'm not 100% certain that that's a lock. I definitely don't see 0 votes. I hope I'm right
Adrian Gonzalez’s Padres tenure secured him in my heart as one of my favorite players of all time. I grew up as a Padres fan in Illinois thanks to my father being from San Diego, and we would end up seeing them in Milwaukee in 2010 and in St. Louis on Opening Day, 2011. I was so mad he wasn’t a Padre anymore; only got to see him once. Seminal moments of my childhood.
Anyways, this is a massive block of text, and TL;DR hearing kind words about him at the tail end of this video made me very happy. Thanks for the content you make.
This year's ballot really asks how we value peak vs longevity. It's some of the post-PED era's best that were cut short by injury. I personally am inclined to reward overwhelming peaks over just hanging around being maybe average.
The question I have given that peak vs longevity is brought up these days is what players would not have been put in the Hall of Fame if peaks were all we ever went off of, and all the data we have now was understood, accepted and available from the jump?
I can understand your point but being good for all of your say 18 year career as opposed to being great for 7 is better to me or at the very least equal.
@@deathminder9206In my opinion if you are great for five years at least, then we are talking about a great peak, and personally I favor peak performance.
Though above average play for a more lengthy period (say 17 years or longer) can certainly outdo a short but dominant peak, but that play must be sustained for long periods.
Also, there are some who I’d call Hall of Very Good.
Those being the players who have the top peaks not in Cooperstown at their position; sabermetrically in particular (ex: Nomar Garciaparra and Troy Tulowitzki for shortstops).
Players who I think should have gotten more consideration than they did (ex: Lou Whitaker).
Players who made the Hall of Fame who I personally wouldn’t have put in (ex: Jack Morris, Rabbit Maranville).
And those who got to the end of their writers ballot eligibility after 1990 but aren’t in Cooperstown are also Hall of Very Good in my book (ex: Mickey Lolich, Dale Murphy, and among those on this ballot, Sheffield will do so and Vizquel also will likely do so in a few years).
I say 1990 because there were position players who didn’t even get to 35 WAR and stayed on the ballot through their eligibility, and who would be consensus one and dones now in all likelihood.
Could that be fair to argue?
I would say since Hack Wilson is in the HoF David Wright should be too, he was also a similar player at least offensively until his career was derailed at age 30
Look. All I'm saying is - have we seen Foolish Bailey and Foolish Baseball in the same place at the same time? That's all I'm saying.
hands on knees for the utley and j-roll inductions, long time comin
Childhood icons, bro. In my eyes they and Howard were all HOFers at the time. Maybe I was wrong about one of those…
@@GalacticRepublic_CT-1977 if Howard doesn’t get hurt or come up late at 25 he easily hits 500 homers and is hof dudes prime was insane hitting 58,48 47,48,33, homers and 140-150 rbi in those 5 years is insane
@@frankanuzzi9740 I know, that’s why he’s my all time favorite. Just saying that as a little kid I thought he’d easily be there, but I was wrong because he was never the same after the ACL tear
They ought to give you a real Hall of Fame ballot someday, you're one of the most insightful young baseball minds on the internet right now.
Mauer also checks those other boxes that voters look at (and are supposed to look at) regarding character and whatnot. Squeaky clean record and persona, only one team and that team being his home team on top of it, didn’t punch Phil Cuzzi in the nose even though it absolutely would have been warranted.
If you are sympathetic to Mauer's injury, then Mauer is a first ballot Hall of Famer. If you are not, then he is a Hall of Famer that gets on before he falls off the ballot. That is all there is to it - Foolish used the term, but didnt actually properly account for it in his analysis.
Poor form, Foolish. Poor form.
“A rod should’ve known better”
*nodding in agreement*
“Another guy who should’ve known better, manny Ramirez”
That’s enough outta you
a rod is addicted to snorting game used jock straps
Hi I posted this last year but I’d like to see how a group of baseball fans given the same rules and criteria as the writers would do in creating their own HOF. Start at like the 1980 ballot and run through their own ballots. Then see how their results compare to the current HOF when they get to the current year or 5 years beyond.
That would be interesting
I do that with OOTP. I increase the percentages slightly and the ballot number to 20. Just to pick my own hall of fame.
Suggestion: Since you labeled David Wright a Hall of Very Good career.
I would be curious to hear what players at each position you would consider Hall of Very Good.
Edit: In my opinion there are four types of players that I would consider to have had a “Hall of Very Good” career:
1. Those who should have been given further consideration and did not get it (ex: Joe Nathan, Lou Whitaker)
2. Those who made the Hall of Fame that I personally wouldn’t have put in (ex: Jack Morris, Rabbit Maranville)
3. Players who reached the end of their writers ballot eligibility after 1990 (ex: Dale Murphy, Tommy John, and on the current ballot Gary Sheffield and possibly Omar Vizquel; as for others, we’ll see).
And 4. The best five or so peaks at each position among those not covered by 1-3 (ex: Nomar Garciaparra and Troy Tulowitzki).
I believe somehow someone convinced the voters to put in practically the entire New York Giants team in the hall, look up the New York Giants and you will see names like Freddie Lindstrom in the HOF when there is no way he honestly belongs, along with many others from that Giants team
Frankie Frisch actually helped 6 of his old teammates in,
1. Freddie Lindstrom
2. Chick Hafey
3. Jessie Haines
4. George "High pockets" Kelly
5. Travis Jackson
6. Dave Bancroft
All of these guys have careers that were good, however not nearly Hall worthy
@@GamesSavedMyLifeOf those players, I would argue that Bancroft and Jackson are closer to being a Hall of Famer than the other four; their career WAR totals are in the 40’s, with Bancroft having a total as high as 7.4 in 1921.
High Pockets is the worst of those players by sabermetric stats. For perspective, his career WAR total of 25.6, as a first baseman primarily, is lower than Joe Nathan; a reliever that went one and done a couple years ago (one who should’ve gotten another look, and I’d call Hall of Very Good for that; but the point stands).
Of the others, Hafey in particular deserves mention for having a 133 career OPS+, and averaging 151 over 1927-1931 (a stretch where he came two points of OBP short of averaging .300/.400/.500 over five seasons)
Rabbit Maranville is an interesting case because he was not a controversial selection at the time and he was considered to be an elite shortstop by contemporaries
It did take him a while to get in
Probably got in because he was a generational great in fielding, as in Luis Aparicio/Mark Belanger/Ozzie Smith/Andrelton Simmons level great
I guess if you are truly elite at something it gives you a 50-50 shot of getting in
My soft criteria for HoVG would be roughly this:
1. 35-50 WAR with good acolades/ postseason; reflects a player who was probably exceptional for a short period of time but took too long to develop or got injured or whatever.
2. 40-55 WAR with weak acolades/ postseason; reflects a player who avoided setbacks and generally played well for a very long time, but was rarely if ever a standout.
These numbers are of course a bit flexible. That said, at fewer than 30 WAR, you just didn't produce enough over your career to be in this discussion, and at a scandal-free 60+ WAR it's really hard to find a way to say you're not a true HoFer.
I think Utley is the best second baseman of the 21st century. No scandals. No steroids, no trash cans, just 100% bucket getter.
I adore Utley but it’s so obvious to me that Robinson Cano beats him out
No scandal but he had that very infamous dirty slide against the Mets
@@Karmy. So? David Ortiz was known for his violent ejections and dugout tantrums, including that time where he smashed a telephone up right next to his teammates, and had dubious connections to PEDs (which probably weren’t legit but other Hall-caliber players have been excluded for those exact connections). And the man was a no-doubt First Ballot Hall of Famer. Not defending the slide, but many Hall of Famers have done worse and not had it held against them
Jack Morris has a Career ERA that starts with a 4 and no hardware like MVP or Cy YOungs but he's a Hall of Famer because the BBWAA is so blatant in it's favoritism it's insane.
Justice for Dave Stieb
Some older voters are of the mindset that players who performed the game’s biggest moments should be in on that alone.
Morris I’d say is a Hall of Very Good caliber career.
Posting this right after that egregious A-Rod/Manny ballot is hilarious timing lol
You really should be invited to join the BBWAA given your writng quality and overall reach and success. I'm still outraged that you couldnt even get a pass for the winter meetings!
I really appreciate your analysis of Utley. He was my idol as a teen, was lucky to see him play into my late 20s. He was the guy that you love to have on your team but would hate to have to face. Old school, ran as hard as he could regardless of the score. Sacrificed his body on the reg. He really was the second best player behind Pujols from 2005-2009. His defense was severely underrated considering he came up playing on astroturf at the Vet. Once he got on grass everyday, the guy always made the fundamental plays. I think he especially was robbed of a gold glove in 2014. He was a late bloomer in his development, although he was also blocked at second base by Placido Polanco. And obviously, the knee injuries really hurt his chances. It was still nice to see him get a few good seasons in coming back from that. I’ve read that Utley had to learn how to reposture his body to stand, walk and run differently to take the pressure off his knees, which was due to his body type. Other players have had to do this as well, Jose Reyes being one of them. Anyways, yeah, would be great if he gets in!
As a twins fan there's a lot of grumpy old people that don't like Mauer around here so the reaction you got was probably people who have had to deal with the grumpy people too much and just instinctively yelled at you.
All I saw initially was "a breakdown" and that the video was over an hour, I thought Jimmy had finally lost his marbles there for a moment.
I love David Wright, however if Don Mattingly isn’t in the hall, Wright can’t be either, that being said, I probably would vote for both because it was so clear how dominant they were before injuries.
The Mauer candidacy is the most interesting to me. He clearly was the best player at his position for an entire decade, and you usually expect those players to get in. But the shorter career, position switch, and lack of postseason success will probably hurt him. I also think his candidacy will be an interesting preview of how Buster Posey gets treated down the road
Lack of postseason shouldn’t be a factor in my opinion.
@@fortynights1513 I don’t think so either but it often can be for some people
Buster Posey played catcher longer and won multiple rings and a league MVP
Great breakdown, FB. I never knew that Chase Utley’s prime was THAT elite!
His prime only lasted 5 years, then he fell off quite a bit
Strong 5 year prime, if he gets in it will be because of his fielding
@@MM33003i mean it certainly felt longer than that. 2004-2011 that 7 year JAWS is nuts. The only better one in that period was Pujols
I grew up in Minnesota, and I will certainly preface my argument with an admission of that bias. However, I feel like Mauer’s value goes somewhat under appreciated because of a lack of longevity. My counter argument though is that catchers take a beating by simply manning their position; and this is something that seems pretty unique to that position. We hear a lot about the physical skill sets that are required to play shortstop or center field, but think of the amount of time that players at those positions spend simply standing still in the field. I don’t mean to minimize the difficulty of playing at either of those spots, but they don’t take a physical toll the way crouching behind the plate does. This is why I believe that valuing peak is more important at the catcher position than at others. Among catchers, Mauer ranks fifth in WAR7 and seventh in JAWS. And the seasons that were used in creating those rankings featured Mauer at catcher more than 75% of the time. I also feel like people who hate on Mauer often compare him to players who never played catcher in the big leagues. I’ve heard him compared unfavorably to Derek Jeter, Ichiro, and even guys like A-Rod and Miggy. Those guys are all legendary players, and I’m not trying to contend that Mauer was better than them, but it’s also an unfair comparison given that none of them played a position as physically tough as Mauer’s. I don’t think that it would be unreasonable to say that Mauer would likely have had a better, and longer, offensive career if he played a different position during his prime. I completely understand what you’re saying about him in this video, but I figure I had to share at least a few thoughts on my favorite player from my childhood.
Mauer should have been moved to 3B day one in MLB to add 5 years to his career. Also, BA is a hollow stat.. RBI's are not hollow. Mauer's RBI annual average? .306/12/80 rbi's. Texas Twins fan.
Love your content bailey! That has been my favorite year of your content so far!
I can't wait for the boomers who decided that video essays don't constitute legitimate baseball journalism to age out of the BBWAA.
Been waiting on this for 8 years
Gosh Bailey, I’ve been a follower for a few years now and I typically agree with you on 95% of how you talk ball. I do disagree with you on Utley, for a few reasons, but super respect your opinion and I see it- I just can’t wrap my brain around it. As a Mets fan, love everything you had to say about our captain- but I think he’s going to be denied simply due to service time. It’s heartbreaking man, he’s my hero, but I think he’s going to get dropped in a year or two off the ballot.
Adrian Gonzalez is how the first base position was explained to me and I think that’s super accurate.
20:01 Love the "penultimate" redemption arc.
All I can say is, if Chase Utley gets in, David Wright HAS to get in.
Utley played 352 more games than Wright, and only had 108 more hits, 17 more HRs and 55 more RBIs.
That's like half of a healthy David Wright season
Wright's slash line is better,
He was the face of a franchise and beloved by most baseball fans, unlike Utley,
and if we're going by "didn't play enough" or "doesn't have enough WAR", then let's take Sandy Koufax out of the hall of fame.
The baseball hall of fame needs to stop having such warped standards 🤦🏽♂️
You’re speaking like Utley wasn’t the face of the most successful period of a franchise that had been around for over 100 years. Forget Rollins, Howard, and Hamels. Utley WAS the Phillies from 2006-2012.
I hope Torii stays on the ballot because he played for the Twins and Tigers and I'm a Tigers fan from Minnesota and he was just fun to watch and I like reminiscing about seeing him play.
Chase Utley is a peak hall of good guy. Putting someone like him in simply devalues the Hall.
Lincecum has a better argument than him, as does Johan, if peak seasons is his only argument
Disagree completely. He was the best second baseman of the game for much of his career. He's just as good as Cano without the steroid scandal
@@TheGilchrist707Side note about Robinson Cano:
He has the highest bWAR in baseball over 2010-2014.
He might not be a Hall of Famer, but he also had a really good peak.
Lincecum had two seasons at 7 war and not a single other one over 4. He is not Santana or Utley. Not even close. @@Sticktothemodels
@@Sticktothemodelslincecum had 2 great seasons with the rest being nothing special to downwright bad. Chase Utley had 7 great seasons in a row. Utley was way more deserving than Lincecum.
"You can get in on a decade of really really good stuff" (paraphrasing), should've been followed by "unless you're Andrew Jones"
When people say Joe Mauer is. HOFer, you have to compare him to other catchers. Not 1st basemen and Center fielders and 3rd basemen, etc. He deserves to be in the HOF.
the knock against Mauer is having a short career as catcher. He's like the position player version of Tim Lincecum. You say don't compare him to other 1st basemen, but he basically played first and DH'd for half his career.
Half of his games weren’t at catcher though…
@@deadhardy okay, but do you do this for other players as well? Ernie Banks best seasons were as a SS, but he played half his career at 1st base.
@thomassexton6783 I do not understand this framing of it, I am really baffled that it's how Baily (who I really respect on baseball) framed it like this. It's kinda irrelevant to the argument, Mauer had around 800 games as one of the best hitting catchers ever and a very good defensive one, his peak from the vast majority of metrics, is worthy of being a hall lf famer, that's what people who want mauer in for. And during his peak, yes sometimes he did DH a bit more then most catchers could/would especially near the end of his career as a catcher...but he was still primarily a catcher those years? It's not like it was ever half and half, he still mostly played catcher and he was still really really great. And sure 900 games as a catcher is a bit low but when it's almost all a hall of fame worthy peak
@@deadhardy But what he's being compared as his, his peak...happened well he was a everyday catcher ? Like honestly what is this argument, I feel like people think it's more of a gotcha then it actually is, or like super semantics almost. People want Mauer in for what he did AS a catcher, when people compare him to other catchers, they primarily use his time as a catcher, no one is under the false assumption that his entire career was a catcher, then view his time where he was a everyday catcher who because of injuries or rest dh'd 20 times a year and played a some 1st base here and there due to injuries. And please don't use lincecum as a comparison, Timmy had 2 elite years and 2 solid ones before being just bad the rest of his career, Mauer played as a catcher a majority of the time for 9 years, where he really only had 1 average season due to injuries (2.1fWar in 2011 where he played 82 games), and almost every other was all star quality.
What you forgot about Utley is the meme factor via Mac from It’s Always Sunny! “Can we have a catch?!”
I live for these long form foolish Bailey videos
100% will be joining the patreon, Bailey. Top baseball RUclipsr on the platform, man.
Give this man credentials
I am a fourth-generation Twins fan in a hardcore Twins family and as such, I am incapable of judging Joe Mauer objectively, not just because of that but because his career spanned my childhood into my teenage years and so when I say "Joe Mauer was my childhood" I mean that very literally. I personally think he's a first ballot hall of famer, but that's an incredibly biased opinion. I'll say that I think his character and one-team career will help him a lot, especially for more old-school voters who may be less impressed by his counting stats and lack of longevity as a catcher.
When it comes to Torii Hunter, he was probably the first player I knew by name and I had his jersey, and when he left the Twins as a free agent to join the Angels I was absolutely devastated. I didn't know that baseball players could change teams and so suffice to say it was a rude awakening.
The Bat Flip by Joey Bats was a huge moment in baseball history b/c it changed the convo on cellies in the game. The No Fun brigade started to lose the fight, and now you see bat flips everywhere
Because that moment actually warranted a crazy celebration, they hit diminishing returns when the moments aren’t big or they do them too often
The biggest problem with Wrights hall of fame case is his weird dry spell in WAR from 2008-10
nope the biggest problem is definitely the fact that he only played for around ten years
AL OLIVER NEEDS TO BE IN THE HOF. DO A DEEP DIVE ON HIM BAILEY AND YOU WILL SEE HE THAT HE 1000% SHOULD BE
I didn't realize you got 60 war for intentionally bicycle kicked Miguel Tejada.
Nice! Needed something to help me get through this workout. Thanks Bailey!
The argument with Joe Mauer is that he’s the greatest catcher in the last 40 years who had a short career half of which he didn’t play catcher for. It’s all about if you feel ok with making that player a HoFer
I too go to Bobby Abreu's Baseball Reference page and go "Hmmm"
Great vid man, love your content. I would have dedicated a bit more to Victor Martínez...his BB/SO ration is absurd.
Idk. Mauer has the HOF catcher vibes, but in terms of value accumulated solely as a catcher I think there are better guys not in the Hall. That being said, I think the Hall has an unfairly high standard for catchers and 2nd basemen as opposed to pitchers, for example.
utley is probably the best teammate a player could ask for.... but man that takeout slide he did, still makes me hate him
Agreed
One of my most anticipated video of the year
You mentioned that it's an honor to be listed on the hall of fame ballot. I wonder who the best players never to make it on the ballot at all. I'm just curious where that line is cut.
Do you have the ability to join the BBWAA and get a ballot? You deserve one.
There are ways to get in for writers for websites. I'd think he has a case because it is writing and editing, and he is one of the more stat guys, so I would hope he gets in.
Foolish thinks Mark Buehrle is a HOFer. That alone should disqualify him to vote
Look at my boy using the word penultimate correctly (20:00): best character arc of the show 😂
I understand why Chase Utley might have been seen as a “tool” kind of player, and I especially sympathize with those who are upset at him for the Tejada slide. But outside of that one incident, which came at the very end of his career mind you, Chase Utley might go down as one of the most beloved Philadelphia athletes of all time. An absolute fan favorite of the phenomenal Phillies core that went to two World Series and could have gone to even more. Even if he might not have the best reputation outside of Philadelphia, Utley is absolutely revered in his hometown in a way that Rollins, Abreu, and Howard simply aren’t, and I hope that factor helps his chances getting into the Hall of Fame.
It boils my blood that Bobby Abreu isn’t in the hall of fame. The walks go crazy
My mock ballot compared to yours:
- Carlos Beltrán (only 2nd year, and I still feel like the trash cans should keep him out until at least year 6)
- A-Rod, who can very simply @$%# right off (also, I abhor the phrase "girl boss," and I'd love for you to find another way to describe his publicity effort)
- Chase Utley because it's his first year on the ballot, and I'm not concerned that he won't get 5%
+ Bartolo Colón for longevity, pitching 190.33 innings in his age 40 season (2013) with a 147 ERA+ (there's a great Stathead query for you), and the fact that he's one of the most *famous* pitchers of the 21st century
+ Matt Holliday, towards whom I'm admittedly biased as an STL fan, but I'd hate to see him go one-and-done. His career OPS+ is 132, just a hair under Todd Helton's, and he had a very long peak of 10 years (2006-15) with every season's OPS+ >= 120 and the total average OPS+ of 141. Add in the 2,000+ hits and 300+ HRs, and I think he's got a case better than you presented.
+ Francisco "K-Rod" Rodríguez because 10.8% is concerningly low for such a good RP.
One thing that we (and by retrospective extension) forgot to account for when predicting HOF'ers is the Tri-State bias. Being a very popular, productive player in the tri-state area gives your HOF case a very real boost.
David Wright on Angels or Athletics wouldn't even be a conversation.
Mauer should be in the HoF but I think the fact he was a 1B might hamper him especially given if you look at raw stats. Paul Konerko isn't a HoFer and has better stats. However if Buster Posey is a HoFer I can't understand if you dismiss Mauer.
Knowing what we know now about concussions, is hard to hold the back half of Mauer's career against him. Dude was still a league average hitter when he couldn't see straight cause his bell was rung too hard from a foul ball hitting his mask
When did he have a concussion?
I guess he had the Kirby Puckett disease
@@DanielSong39 if I'm not mistaken Puckett's was due to a stroke in his eye that damaged his retina
@@fortynights1513 Mauer had a severe concussion in August 2013 from a foul ball off his mask. The symptoms lasted for months and he was very sensitive to light and sound. He was at risk of worse outcomes if he suffered more concussions. He never played catcher again (other than his 1 pitch farewell). He did have another concussion in 2018 diving for a ball and retired at the end of the season.
MLB the Show 23 and Chris Singleton going on about "good slider, excellent fastball" and then always going on in the next bat to "reminds me of Johan Santana" and just talking way too long about foul balls and batters being in-between on their timing has poisoned me against Johan Santana (and also tempted me to change every pitcher's slider into a slurve in franchise mode) so Bartolo Colon definitely deserved that 2005 Cy Young
Enjoyed your analysis 🧐 keep up the great work 🇨🇦❤️
:cut to a shot of Evan Gattis: "what the hell did I do?!?!"
17:36 I was so confused when I wasnt paying complete attention and he said Ricky Barry
MLB Power Pros legend Joe Mauer
wow stathead looks really useful, but the subscription is a bit pricy. if only there was a code which could provide me some discount of perhaps 20% off the first year
It used to be free
@@DanielSong39It was never free for baseball to my knowledge. But it was free for football and basketball at various points
Matt Holliday's greatest legacy being his two future #1 pick sons is very fun. Loved watching him with STL.
David wright would be like the Tracy Mcgrady of the MLB great peak just injuries.
Ergo if this was Hall of Very Good, he may belong
The mlb hall of fame is a joke@@fortynights1513
haters said you wouldnt drop a 1 hour 3 minute long video on the hall of fame ballot
1) The fact that Jim Edmonds was one and done shows how absurdly high the bar is set for outfielders.
2) Someone could defend a continued vote for Vizquel by pointing out that Ty Cobb is in the Hall. He once beat up a disabled fan ... for suggesting that Cobb was biracial.
The one thing I'd say about Beltrán's case is that other 2017 Astros have said that he sort of browbeat or intimidated people into going along with the cheating, which they also say was his idea. Even A.J. Hinch was apparently intimidated by him. If it was just A.J. Hinch saying it it would obviously just be scapegoating to get management out of hot water, and even for the other players it's at least partly CYA but I do think that's a concern for the HoF Committee. Using his stature as a shoo-in Hall of Famer to get younger players to go along with him and threaten their careers if they didn't is pretty ugly if it's true.
great stuff as always, love hearing your opinions!
I’m with you on Leyland, he’s just a personal favorite in the manager category and glad to see him in the HOF
Bailey, the Astros video assistant named Beltran as the player who proposed the stealing system. We can’t pretend it’s all circumstantial. And he basically wasn’t punished since he’s an assistant to the GM for the Mets.
For just a cup of a coffee a day you can sponsor a hall of fame vibe for Bobby Abreu who should probably be in the hall of fame
People ignore Billy Wagner’s horrendous playoff numbers. He was the left-handed Craig Kimbrel. Dominant in the regular season, but could never trust him in high leverage situations.
Yes because it’s 1% of all his innings pitched. Not a big enough sample size at all to actually matter
@@default0467 it’s 1% of the most important innings he’s pitched
@@MM33003Postseason success is great to have, and if Wagner had it he could’ve been in a few years earlier, but playoff failures aren’t a reason I wouldn’t vote for someone.
I think my only slight disagreement with baileys ballot is I probably leave buehrle off. Tim Hudson got bounced the second year on the ballot, and mark buehrle is basically Tim Hudson statistically, so I don’t quite feel like buehrles a hall of famer
you should try to find the unluckiest batting game (line outs or bad calls) of all time and make a vid cuz i feel like that would be fun to watch
Thank you Bailey for accurately describing how the Astros scandal went with Beltran. I am no Astros fan and don’t benefit whatsoever from defending him. That call absolutely came from higher up than him and he was the only player implicated cuz he was the only one that had retired and subject to the sole blame which is just not true.
It's wild that we're talking about HOF ballots featuring dudes that are my age. Getting old is weird.
WE HAVE BEEN BLESSED
The way I see it is, if Bonds and Clemens arent in, any other suspected steroid user should not get in, because Bonds and Clemens are miles above anyone else in terms of position player/pitcher
I think the unnamed category should be dubbed "The Guys Of All Time"
I just feel closers need more love and recognition in the hall. The Hall of Fame is supposed to be the best of the best at their positions to play the game yet closers get shafted. Of the top 10 save leaders of all time, only 4 are in the hall. I'm hoping Kimbrel and Jansen might give the position a boost in years to come and make people reevaluate KRod and Nathan.
David wright deserves hof
Thank you for giving Shields the love he deserves, loved him on the Rays and could never cheer against him afterwards
I'm glad you mentioned it at 8:26, cause honestly what gave me the ick on Chase Utley is how he played the game. I can't stand that old mentality of "play hard". Chase Utley played so overtly hard that they changed the rules. He ended a young Ruben Tejada's promising career, single handedly, and did it without a care in the world. Clapped as he walked away from a writhing Tejada on the ground. I'd never put that guy on a ballot for that alone. Complete lack of character or care for his fellow ballplayer.
Oh well. That was the way it was at the time. Are we gonna kick out Ty Cobb? He was a massive POS.
Only change I’d make is switching buehrle out with Torii hunter