Chinese Overconfidence and American Illusions
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- Опубликовано: 29 авг 2024
- NEW YORK, February 6, 2013 - In conversation with analyst Ian Bremmer, Singapore's veteran diplomat Kishore Mahbubani outlines his vision of the next phase of U.S.-China relations and describes a worrisome myopia among U.S. officials.
Watch complete video: scty.asia/W7x2Me
The biggest danger in politics is to live with illusions ... well said! Thank you.
AS A HISPANIC, I LOVE CHINA BUT DESERVE A DEMOCRACY, ALL CHINESE PEOPLE NEED TO BE HEARD....CHINA IS AUTHORITARIAN MEANING THEY WILL TRY TO CONQUER THE WORLD BY ECONOMY....USA IS IMMIGRANTS OF EVERYONE INCLUDING CHINA AND INDIA....WHO WOULD YOU WANT TO WIN?....THEY WILL TRY TO DOMINATE INDIA
@@crlnizaguirre ah shut up cia bot
Mr. Mahbubani is surely one one of the most astute and prescient commentators on China/US relations; first he "nails" problems on both sides; and second he describes them with enough examples so that the viewer can see them also e.g. US refusal to see itself as #2; and third he was able to do this seven years ago.
Why would US see itself as No2 when it isn't?
@@Andy-P USA only no1 in GDP and militer.
Others not
The Chinese are saving their money and working very hard.
@Donald Kasper We don't carry paper cash anymore, not even debit card. Btw we don't even use cellphone to pay any more, it's all facial recognition. Wake up
@Donald Kasper seems like you're still living in the 1960s. Please do a simply youtube search "travel in China," "china's mega projects," "china's cashless pay", you'll see how chinese live their lives today. Go visit it yourself some day.
@Donald Kasper quit assuming and see for ur self
Donald Kasper did i say credit?
Saving their money.... in property
To live with illusions is another word for not accepting REALITY.
"the biggest danger in politics is to live with illusions like that" well said, sir
Kishore was an extremely intelligent diplomat, representing the best interest of Singapore. By clearly explaining the power of China to the west world. USA drafted TPP based on Singapore's idea, which would have benefited Singapore the most. Until Trump was elected.
Though TPP was thrown away, Singapore's position in the world was strengthened. It becomes the bridge between Asia and West. Singapore was selected as first meeting place for Trump and North Korea's Kim. This historic moment was not chosen for no reason. An amazing achievement for a tint island country.
Now is mid 2022, and prof Mahbubani is right in every way.
Very intelligent man! Not like most western countries politician do not know about, when they are talking, like an idiot.
Because they know the truth, but you can't make money from the truth. Lies are more profitable.
He’s absolutely right . Just checked the ppp graphs for past 50 years ....he was spot on. China ppp first with more than he predicted, usa second with about the same as he predicted , third india ....awesome growth ...close to usa . Datelines also close to what he predicted , infact chinas ppp rose much above usa even earlier than 2017
He is a superstar!
This sir is so smart!! Love it
Eye opening and to be though over
This Guy is spot on!!!
A Learnered Guru!!!
China maybe no 1 economy by 2030. Still 9 years away from today ie March 2021.
What a great and wise thinker! 👍👍👍👍
Kishore has been proven wrong. He is the one living in illusion.. looking back what he said 10 years ago..
Kishore, Xi's personal towel boy, has been proven wrong in every debate, in every conversation@@donaldjoseph3903
It is not fair to say that China became over confident because they were asked to buy treasury bills.
His saying is taking action today which was predicted 6 yrs before
Kishore Mahbubani saw the future
Over self-confident is on the US side. To the point that they think they know what political system Chinese people want for themselves. That is arrogance rather than confidence!
Sounds like sour grapes to me.
"USA is #1 and I am not"
Is the undertone I hear in your comment.
The musings of a bitter loser who needs an iron-clad foot in his ass.
Get fucked.
American laziness versus Chinese momentum; American arrogance versus Chinese humility; the bully fighter versus the trained fighter ... who will win?
The individualistic spirit who carves his own path in life, vs. The weak collectivist spirit of a whipped dog who merely follows?
Who wins? Why, the individualistic spirit of the west, and certainly not the weak-spirited collectivist follower who is the meek doormat who others walk on because he is a coward who is constantly apologising for his behavior and has not the courage to speak his mind and assert himself.
@@arminiusofgermania lmao
All that is, is arrogance
Westerners constantly pat themselves on the back and always justify things and never try to understand
I hope you and you're fellow arrogant fools keep that mindset
It's easier to take over individuals than a strong collective unity
@@user-ip8bw7gt2x a collective is easier to manipulate/control. Whereas individuals who think for themselves and who live in a country where they are free to dream, tinker, and innovate develop an advanced society.
the collective is mindless, and doesn't think for themselves, but merely do as they are told by authority, whereas the west questions authority, and thinks independently of central authority.
The collective can only survive, and endure, but not truly live to their full potential because they are chained to everyone else.
The trained fighter who has all that experience while the bully fighter runs over unarmed civilians in tanks.
I don’t know how to promote my videos to those who want to learn Chinese.
I’ve spent about 100,000 hours studying English humor and Western culture. My native language is Chinese. I teach Chinese language in jokes and pictures.
Laugh and learn.
This guy is smart!
Great. Fairly well put it. Doing the math further, by World Bank and IMF economists, by 2100, Indian economy will be about the same as Chinese economy, both will be about twice the size of the US economy, or, put it another way, more than the combined size of today's G7...
Actually, as far as I know, the smart US political leader all know about this, and these honest people have one problem: How can you get elected after you play honest?...
This is one reason why the public are dumbing down, more and more ignorant about the world....
One good example is the New Gulf bridge, between San Francisco and Oakland, California ( Highest specifications for bridge in the US) contracted Chinese for the steel engineering modular component, got the blame by the public, all the elite circle in the US knew why ( no US engineering capacity , if trying, the cost and schedule would be ridiculous), all they were willing to say in public was that they could not find enough welders...
That's why I don't believe in democracy at current point, that's why Plato didn't believe in democracy, his teacher Socrates was killed by the ignorant democracy. Democracy is like a dangerous wild horse, when the people aren't educated enough to ride it, it can get you hurt all over and you won't get anywhere
socrates made himself unpopular with the demos, by speaking for the elite. he was allowed to flee the city, everyone had 24 hours to get out of town, and chose to die. he was old. democracy can not be perfect, but look around you, which kind of oligarchy has a better track record.?
Al Loomis
no system is perfect, and every system always starts out good, but in time they lose their core and start to corrupt, there is no superior system, there is only systems that suit better for specific society in a specific time, the problem I have with democracy is once a democratic system starts to corrupt, it's almost impossible to reform and change because you would be going against the people. Yes most oligarchy is bad because they corrupt much faster but because the power is in the hands of few, they are also easier to be overthrown and start over. Even democracy, in this era, could easily turn into oligarchy using media as means to make people think the way they want them to, I've traveled and talked to lots of different kind of people around America and can see that very clearly, people in this era doesn't want to spend the time to do their own research and thinking, they rather watch a 30min long video or news as basis for lots of things and are extremely against listening to different perspectives. Im not bashing democracy by any means, Im only saying that democracy doesnt work in this era as people are too easily manipulated by politicians, easier than ever.
@@cks2020693 The democracies fought two world wars to protect democracy. Autocratic countries fought to destroy it.
Overconfident is a over statement
How about USA going down to no 3 by 2050 - from India 😂😀😎🙏
That is also happening. And China may become no 2 by 20XX, replaced by India. Let's see if China can react rationally or repeat the same mistake the U.S is making.
The Great Convergence: Asia, the West, and the Logic of One World
Why bother to be number 1 or number 2 ? Statistically , there is no difference between #1 or #2, You can be #1 in one area, but #2 in others . It is not worthwhile to start a war or trade war just because you are #2 , because after the war you maybe #4, or even #10. The best strategy is being comfortable with #2, enjoy it , and at the same time work hard through fair competition to be #1 again, I did not mean to compete with dirty mean like what we are doing now , but confess that we have problem, and we need to improve ourselves, instead of blaming others for our own mistake . A country and people who can not rethink and do self improvement can never be #1 again
Hello Prof.Kishore Mahbubani👑👑👑❤❤❤💚💚💚💝💝💝
wow, what a great prediction
Reality in 2020 is exactly the opposite of what he mentioned in this video. Yeah buddy, we should just believe you.
Yeah well maybe when Americans wake up and smell the coffee they might feel like “oh look not everyone feels like they have to speak English. Maybe I have to see myself as not the center of the fucking world. The worlds greatest football player was just the top of the American leagues.”
What he said then holds today
This guy is a true leader.
Has the disparaging differences become worst since then?
Comon saying when you are number 2, try harder, this is what China still doing quitely
@Donald Kasper by your basis India would be most weakest country in the world. Is it?
@Donald Kasper
The GDP of China is no. 2 in the world. The GDP per capita of China is ranked 72 in the worId. That is why China is still a developing country. However, the cost of living in China is much lower than that of America.
About China, I really hope Chinese go back for the ancient Chinese wisdom..
以小事大者霸 以大事小者王
And not just as lip service..
The chinese come to the states because it is better here than in china.
Work together is the best
It's really great
fast forward to 2017, Donald Trump ladies and gentlemen
@SDD41 Who used exact same blame game propaganda against Japan in 1980s before signing Plaza accord. Americans are fully and dangerously brainwashed.
Applause.
2022 now he is under investigation. Xi just kills his opponents.
No nation at the top had ever accepted no 2 position willingly. And Chinese know that.
That’s why China promotes the idea of ”shared future of mankind”. If humans cannot unite together, the history will always repeat itself.
@@apei281 Unite together under Xi and authoritarian China - I think not
Looking back Mr Kishore is/was wrong about US China relation.. he underestimates US power and resilience.
i really want to know what the book name is anyone knows?
I know this is 7 years ago but I think it is "Has China won ?"
Prescient.
Went directly to the comment section, and I wasn't disappointed. It is interesting to see how people like @Donald Kasper wasting their time typing BS comments. They could have instead worked harder to make the America great again. How much energy was wasted on those pointless arguments.
It is not a shame to be number 2, as you has chance to be no. 1 again. It is a shame for not seeing this though.
While I respect Kishore, it is plainly not true that US relies on China while selling their treasury bonds. China only holds around 5-6% of those. Most of the bonds are hold domestically. Ironically, China buys the treasury bonds using its foreign reserves it has been able to accumulate when keeping RMB down. On the other hand, the US account for almost 20% of Chinese exports. This relationship is clearly not a fair two way street.
@kl wies Deficit is not the main issue. The main issues is to get America back to manufacturing using robotics like Germany and Japan did. Anyway, stupid fool like you not realise China cannot exports if USD1=4.5 Yuan.
@kl wies You are stupid fool. Not just Trump. The whole Washington is behind Trump trade war on China.
If China very advanced like Japan, why China not peg USD1=4.5 Yuan ? Please give an intelligent answer if you got the brains.
49 american are in illusion.
Look when people will Hate less to, Each other then, OUR CREATOR will Solve our so many Big Problems.
There is Ghost banning on the videos of this guy. Really sucks.
What do you think of China claiming territories within the 9 dash lines? Do you think that this is action of righteous and wise country?
I want to hear Kishore's view on that too. He will be very careful on what to say to his biggest "client".
Go gold goal CHINA...😎😎😎🖒🖒🖒
So here's the problem with his analysis. His analysis depends on a static situation which is always fundamentally an error. For instance,due to robotics and artificial intelligence the utility of low-cost manufacturing in China is going to disappear and factories are going to be located close to markets.
so for instance those Apple phones made in China will no longer need be made in China but in fact it will be shaped cheaper to make them in robotic factories in the US because there will be no utility to cheap labor and the major cost will be transportation and inventory.
Similarly, the u.s. is only really running a deficit because of the baby boom retiring. When this demographic fact passes through the American system the us will go to huge surpluses and will no longer need outside funding.
So what this guy has done is described the current situation accurately but not describe the future at all.
finally and it should be mentioned although he mentions it not even if by allusion to it,environmentally the u.s. is rapidly improving and the American environment already the best in the developed world is getting better more rapidly than any other developed country. China, already with a fabulously polluted environment is getting rapidly worse. China is hugely overpopulated whereas the US isn't.these factors will affect lifestyle and quality of life in such a way that the US will permanently be able to attract the brightest in the past while as I have already heard complaints from expatriates about lifestyle quality in China.
In other words he's done an analysis based on very limited factors which is completely static and shallow.
Have you been paying attention recently? China has been shifting to automation and been cutting down on pollution. They're the biggest sponsors of green tech and are rigourously implementing them. Their electric bus fleet in Shenzhen alone is larger than any other city in the world.
Then there's the issues regarding moving jobs back to the US. Those jobs are lost forever. The only way to bring them back is to set the rest of the world aflame. Mexico as of now is three times cheaper than Chinese manufacturing, yet the jobs stay in China. The reason is that China has developed the infrastructure to procure materials, manpower, produce a product, and ship it out quite efficiently. For start ups this is invaluable. A mew product can be made in bulk within weeks of the first order and expand from several thousand units a day to hundreds of thousands a day with no hassle with everything done in house. Their ability to start production is insane. In a world where your new product may be outcompeted quickly, speed is essential. No country thus far can match it.
See the current trade war. The manufacturing jobs have moved to Vietnam, not Mexico or the US, and hey are already having trouble. Sure their economy is growing. Traffic jams and delays in shipping are also increasing. The infrastructure is not there and much of the production happens in China with the final assembly done in Vietnam to obtain the 'Made in Vietnam' tag to avoid tariffs. China is the world's factory until someone can match the physical and human infrastructure China had spent 40 years building.
@@eugeneng7064 www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/heres-why-we-should-never-trust-china-on-climate-change
The millennial generation is huge too and a lot of them are living in tents, and cars and even living in the street as well as heavily in debt. Even if production moves back to America, use of robotics will mean these people will continue to live in poverty. If Donald Trump has another term, not many people will find America attractive. Europe and Japan will be more attractive.
@@tunissaadia8064 Your post is pure ignorant fantasy.the millennials are prospering the way the rest of the United States is as it has the highest growth rate in the developed world.you're referring to college University debt but foreign students flood our universities all too willing to pay to get the best education in the world.
your comment that you're up in Japan look better in to the Future shows you really have no understanding of what's going on because both Europe and Japan have incredibly high rates of complicit national debt due to aging populations and slow economic growth.
@@eugeneng7064 have you been paying attention or do you just have cognitive issues?China was just found to be the worst polluter in the world emitting huge amounts of a chemical which is very destructive to the environment in which has been outlawed for a decade.switching to automation will not solve China employment problem you've missed the whole point.
I have daily life American citizens their view about Chinese are rather quite positive, like smart, hardworking, disciplined docile.but the problem is the Americans foresee their empire will be finished by China rise.nothing wrong with that also chine population is 4 times the USA.but it’s American elites I’ll. Wish for China to be. A st. O o.
The problem is not ordinary Chinese people. CPC leaders are the main problems to the world. They are stubborn want to defend their power, wealth, status by hook and by crook.
When China Currency start Using in US then we will know. Not his country any way, Do we have to try to prevent it happen , Or some one just accept and get along. life end, If you know Chinese culture. Then It is not illusions,
Obey the party. Freedom is slavery. War is peace. Love is hate.
Such is the backwards world of communist china. They even adopted capitalism because it works, and being a humble and meek little fool just gets you stepped on. The chinese are resentful because being a bully, and an asshole gets results and makes things happen.
I hope Trump knows this
no he won't, he tapes trade war on google, he will just get results after filtering which are anti Chinese, maybe he even doesn't think about this, he's playing golf LOL
Course he don't. Honest people can see through lies, and deception. He has the courage to speak out against the corruption.
I didn't know Mr. Been is a China expert.
peperzine
Mr Been?
China change alot. indeed
.
Without marthir no good hand in money term. for muslim southworld
Is robin break the china money dam
2021, chinese overconfidence is overrated
I dont believe this video is six years old
This guy is so naive, praising a snake, soon to be an octopus.
Trump has ruined that trade. So, your book is wrong.
". . . . I discovered that no American political figure, can have words coming out of his mouth, expressing the United States as number 2 in anything...."
The eyes were blurry from all the mist being produced by the soup being boiled so much. Now the soup is not boiling much anymore and everyone can see the bottom of the pot. It looks rusty and rotten. But you keep on talking about rise of China.
The US does not need China to purchase bonds. Michael Pettis lays it out -
"You cannot run a current account surplus unless you are also a net exporter of capital, and since the rest of China is a net importer of capital, the PBoC must export huge amounts of capital in order to maintain China’s trade surplus. To keep the RMB from appreciating... the PBoC must be willing to purchase as many dollars as the market offers at the price it sets. It pays for those dollars in RMB."
Michael predict the future of China far better than Kishore on America. Now and back when the interview was.
此人心怀叵测欲置我华夏于炭火之上。
你究竟聽完或聽懂嗎？他完全在支持你"華夏"啊。smh
Lol. English?
@@arminiusofgermania lol. Learn a language?
Better do it soon, Your children will be speaking it
@@user-ip8bw7gt2x how do you talk in sticks?
Wouldn't that hurt?
even if china is the biggest economy of the world they still can't produce a great singer like lady Gaga!
ptong226 fuck stinky gaga
ptong226 That is somebody I hope China will Never produce...
Sh$tty music
No one cares about Lady Gaga!
Lady gaga no great
Lol.. Nice one
this guys can't trust because he look mr bean brother we cannot trust his word
lol
An Indian guy holds a Singapore passport talk about China and US Foreign Policy? lol Joke
+CTO so what, he is unbiased, unlike some muricans who may be making your "joke" comment.
So what? Singapore and India are very close to each other. So f-ing what? There are black, CHinese, Indian people with French passports. So? You're an idiot.
Because this guy knows what he is talking about.
He's Indian by race, Singaporean by nationality. He is also a professor in the Practice of Public Policy and Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore. A place where leaders of tomorrow are sent to learn the ways of good governance. Singapore for the record, has for the past 50 years, been the mediator between USA and China. A lot of communication and partnership were done through Singapore's organizing efforts.
You are the joke here talking about his race or background instead of arguing based on the point and logic of his speech. You might as well say he's wearing a blue tie and that's why you think his speech is a joke.
Kishore is from Singapore where there is amalgamation of Chinese , Malay , Indians . Lee Kuan Yew had wanted to build the best civil service he could and put in lots of effort in upgrading its performance. Sosphicated, Efficient , Knowledge Of the world etc. Kishore was one of the beneficiary of that system.