How reliable is China's economic data? | DW Business
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- Опубликовано: 25 янв 2024
- China's National Bureau of Statistics has vowed to punish officials for falsifying economic data - warning that anyone caught fudging the numbers would be "found, investigated and dealt with." The warning comes amid mounting skepticism about the veracity of China's official data.
The video features analysis from Derek Scissors, Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
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#China #economy #statistics
“We know that they are lying, they know that they are lying, they even know that we know they are lying, we also know that they know we know they are lying too, they of course know that we certainly know they know we know they are lying too as well, but they are still lying. In our country, the lie has become not just moral category, but the pillar industry of this country.” ..... Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn
Good quote! China is definitely lying, but not nearly as much as Russia....which lies about pretty much everything.
Guy who got cancer treatment in prison under the USSR btw
Please compare the US, China and Germany in GDP, import, export, industry production, electric consumption data.
The most intuitive thing to consider is electricity consumption and taxes! China's electricity consumption and taxation have both increased!
This year's foot in mouth award goes to.....
It means the internal fiddling of the statistics is to such an extent that they are not meaningful or believable by even domestic organisations
Same goes with the US
@@ChristoffelTensors their growth rate is already very slow currently
Ok wumao @@ChristoffelTensors
@@ChristoffelTensors the us does not falsify economic growth data. It can't really do that, there are checks and balances put in place, to make sure it doesn't.
@@hiruzenmonofuke7344 Bruh 15% of the gdp calculations are called “imputations” please be serious.
The U.S. is literally adding roughly $2 Trillion in new debt every year right now, just to hold off economic recession...but China is somehow doing worse.
6:39 "Xi does not want a thriving private sector" - first time I've heard a commentator say that. Explains Xi's crackdown on multiple industries, but does he realistically think that the state can provide the growth for the economy?
He doesnt know what he's talking. Like most China experts, they are a dime a dozen. Despite trade tensions US businesses sent the strongest ever delegation late last year to Shanghai for the China International Trade Expo. While 500 European firms took part. VW recently invested more than a billion dollars and shifted their ev production from Germany to Hefei China. They know that's where the action and future of ev are. Risk staying at home and die a slow death. No leader in his right mind will leave the entire economy to be run by the state.
And u have proof otherwise
just like in the west, the fight against "COVID" was worse than the disease itself !!!
I think Xi isn't afraid of a thriving private sector. He's afraid of a thriving private sector outside of party control
XI jinping anti private sector policies have been a topic amongst China analysts for 2-3 years now.
We have no idea what he truly thinks, which is a huge problem from multiple angles.
All we can tell from afar is that he believes in. "Stability". People who knew him before he became unapproachable say he is traumatized by the cultural revolution and obsessed with avoiding any semblance of unpredictability.
“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and Chinese government statistics.”
On a scale of 1 to 1, one being the most likely and 1 being the least likely, how likely yould you say the US changed the way they calculate inflation in order to hide that they are already in recession?
yes,all the Chinese infrastructure are fade, all amde by paper, including houses,HSR, all goods exported to your country, mare than half of the commercial ships are made by China including the owners all over the world, they required China to make paper ship so China can cook their GDP numbers, how smart you are, Chinese felt so happy that thier rivals has people like you.
Hope you will be able to convince the US about this.
Then you will really contribute to the World Peace.
Mark Twain approves this message.
Where are all these new roads, bridges, hydroelectric dams, airports, coal plants, subways and high speed rail the Chinese built coming from?
DW, you are always so clear and complete. Thanks for being a reliable searchlight.
Interesting. A good, well-focused interviewer, with a knowledgeable, succinct interviewee. Warmest compliments. Thank you. :)
This commentator apparently knows his stuff
Know how to speak is not necessarily knowing nor telling the whole real truth. That has always been the US and western skills in twisting and turning true facts to suit their agenda and own benefits. That's how they maintain their hegemony and the world already knows about all these tricks .
‘Apparently’ is the right word.
EXACTLY! We all should get used to the nasty word recession concerning China's economy.@@Zei33
@@Zei33 here, take ur 50 cents.
Yeah, he knows a lot, and if you keep in mind he that he is speaking from an American perspective with all its associated ideology behind it, it is indeed a very interesting interview.
The question is how reliable is EU and US economic data ???
Very
Ha ha … very funny?!
Look it up. It's not some secret like in China.
I know it’s not like China ( although I really don’t) but I guess you are 16 years old and still believe that Santa exists
Very funny. Crazy how they report recessions. Why would they be able to do that.
It is impossible for any country with this size of economy to grow faster each year. So the question is how fast the increase rate drop and where it stabilizes.
true. its the law of large numbers. we should see if this is a trend over a period of years, or not
Amazing guest, thank you DW and Derek.
"found, investigated and dealt with" - really scary stuff
Ll conjecture of biased Western press. USA economy is booming and unemployment is only 4% yet just about every second announcement is about a top US company laying off 20 000 workers at a time. And if the top economy in the world is booming how come they can only mange 2.5% annualized growth. So who is fooling who here. Also China does not have 34 trillion debt
I'm hopeful for India but his opinion on the increased interest into investing into India is correct. Great guest.
😂😂😂😂 good joke
It makes sense to invest in India over China.
China is a communist hole that hates democracies and only country the size of China capable of handling China is going to be India. So either the money west has been pouring in goes into India, or the world ignores India and India sides with China and Russia in the future, which is bad for the west anyway.
This is why India is now the new China, and unlike China, a functioning democracy which doesn't hate the world.
Even Li Keqiang, the econ head, said it's for guidance and that the figures are unreliable...so more of a target to reach, at all costs, if officials want to keep their posts. He looks at electricity consumption, rail cargo and bank lending instead. M2 money supply is probably better than lending data. Post covid, better to look at retail sales, air travel and the property market.
And u have proof of that ? He never said that
If you look at electricity consumption, an interesting fact is, in the past 20 years, China's electricity consumption has increased four times, while the United States has almost zero growth.
@@cjh903 14 billion tons of CO2 vs. 6 billion for the U.S. Be proud! China numba one!
@@zacksmith5963 He told an ambassador before Li became VP.
Falsifying data? How relaible is Germany's pandemic figures, or VW emission figures?
Classic whataboutism. The VW emissions and German pandemic are not under the lens in this video. Stop deflecting.
@@vikashchandra9917classic pajeed nonsense
Pajeed talk like this
India best achievements so far
India's Hunger index
2013: 63rd rank
2022: 107th rank
India's Happiness index.
2013: 111th rank
2022: 136th rank
India's press freedom rank
2013:79th
2022: 150the the fourth pillar of worlds largest
democracy is no more
India's unemployment rate
2013:4.9%
2023:7.5%
Unemployment rate never increase in growing
economy.. india is growing only on paper and by
loan
India's Debt
before 2014: ₹55 lakh crore
2023: ₹155 lakh crore
India's GDP from 2004 to 2014:
$709 billion to 2.04 trilion (almost triple)
India's GDP from 2014to 2024:
$2.04 trillion to 3.6 trilion (expected)...not even
double
Very enlightening! Great anchor and commentator.
Anchor is the impressive one here with all of the info
Any provincial bureaucrat who has been sending misleading data would instantly make himself suspicious if he suddenly changed it now.
He could blame it one someone else. Easy.
what they did is to adjust the previous figures down so it boosts this year numbers then they do it again the next year. They think no one is going to look back to last year numbers but in there are people who noticed what they have been doing for monthly, quarterly and yearly reports.
It doesn’t matter. The old rule was “give me positive data”. The new rule is “give me positive data AND don’t lie”.
Anybody that isn’t pro-authoritarian will see the issues with that.
Even worse, their predecessors sent in bad information. Now its a game of musical chairs to see who gets caught, but they have no choice since bad results will be harshly punished
Really good and informative interview. Keep it up!
China loves hiding
@@cinpeace353better than ccp's😂
@@BigFaceOfTheKnownUniverse Depends on whether you want hear what you want hear or you want to understand the real world. It is just like news about Ukraine is winning in recent years. It makes you happy with what you want to hear.
@@cinpeace353 Nah, it's based on actual evidence, but nice try.
@@Djamonjawhy don't u prove it . Waiting
Very interesting dude. Would love to see more of him.
awesome commentator, actually some clear toughts!
Actually chinese economy may be inflated by about 40% -50% real chinese economy could be 12-13 Trillion $ and Indian economy is understated by 40-50% , real Indian economy could be well over 6 Trillion $ , so its a crazy world we live in 😅
dream on
India has the biggest economy in the world.India is 100 years ahead of the world.India even has more toilets than the rest of the world thanks to Modi.
yea yea India make everything by mouth, China make things by hand 😌😌😌
Chinese economy reflects itself the moment you enter china. Can't be said for India 😂😂
By hand and in sewer oil, all Tofu Dreg projects. Amiright 50 cent army? @@chunhinlam
Interesting interview.
not realy
Drop in imports, drop in exports, but growth in GDP... suuure....
China economy was doing well during Covid due to the huge demand of electronics and medical goods in the world. You might recall the crazy shipping cost at that time. The Chinese export was 2500bn USD in 2019 and increased to 3316bn in 2021 and 3380bn USD in 2023. Post covid and after Ukraine war, China never has the sky-high inflation in other countries thanks to its own vast manufacturing base and cheap energy imports from Russia, and this is why China GDP is growing in its own currency with close to zero inflation. The Chinese GDP is doing relatively poor in USD has more to do with Forex as the US government has to raise interest rate to fight inflation. People just can't understand the basics of economy.
The growth was drop because of it. There are no contradiction. 😅
South Korea: exports -7, imports -12, GDP growth +1.4
It seems that South Korea’s data is not reliable as well😂
it is not all about import/export. Government monetary policy wins all.
China boost its GDP by building internal infrastructure like bridge, high speed train links to reach their "target" which they fix at the beginning of the year, which is very different how rest of the world does. Many of those infrastructure are not profitable and it is kind of a lost investment.
Kind of hard for GDP to be positive when the largest sector of your economy has been in freefall.
Incredibly good, insightful interview, great questions and just an on-it analyst
🇺🇲💊💊🇪🇺😁✌️
Just had a trip to France. Chinese tourists have practically disappeared compared to 6 years ago when I last went there. It tells a lot about the Chinese economy. I remember when I was a young man travelling to Europe 30 years ago, people would say hello to any Asian face in Japanese. China is going down the same path, if not worse.
how is the economy in Europe?
You saw less Chinese tourists in France, because they now feel foreign countries are not more developed than China.
No loss
It is close to Chinese New Year. Most of them are visiting their hometown. Not a good indicator at this couple months.
even worse
China... # 1 in EV cars, head of BRICS, biggest project on the planet (belt & road), only nation with world class space station, manufacturing capital of the world, major infrastructure projects world wide, 5000 years of recorded history, # 1 in A.I., biotech, science, math, computer, etc. longest uninterrupted history, oldest surviving civilization & richest nation 1500 years ago, as well as the richest nation on the planet today. no other nation can even come close. what china did this last 50 years was ground braking, albeit this next 50 years will be even more astonishing. this next generation is western educated, world traveled & they think outside the box. brave new world indeed...
Falsifying data? How reliable is Germany's Covid data? or VW's emission data?
😂…that’s hilarious. China has been doing this since they entered the WTO.
And u have proof of that
@@zacksmith5963 - The land of cutting corners and make believe! This is China’s motto.
@@donyakusa9187 and u have proof of that ?
yes,all the Chinese infrastructure are fade, all amde by paper, including houses,HSR, all goods exported to your country, mare than half of the commercial ships are made by China including the owners all over the world, they required China to make paper ship so China can cook their GDP numbers, how smart you are, Chinese felt so happy that thier rivals has people like you.
你真的很傲慢，你祖上是贵族吗？
I remember there was talk of China outsourcing intensive labor to other countries and transitioning into a consumer/service market or something like that. Maybe if China didn't behave so aggressively over the last 10 years and instead truly built the B&R into a major labor supply from surrounding countries, it would be a different position than now.
China will never be a lead consumer/service market because they lack the credibility and accountability to go with it. The reason the West is so good at services is because everything is transparent and the data is easily accessible. Then there is a ton of 3rd party agencies like SEC, FDA, CDC, NIH, OSHA, FSIC that are in charge of overlooking everything in between from operations to safety to finances. Services and Consumers markets requires A LOT of trust for it to work efficiently. Consumer and Services doesn't work when corruption is rampant and everyone is trying to cheat and steal from each other. China shot itself in the foot when they decided that lying and cheating results would yield endgame gains and I personally don't think it will ever shake that reputation.
@@zacksmith5963 yet, thousands of Chinese are fleeing China and the Chinese consist of the third largest illegal immigrants coming into USA. For a country that lost, seems like everyone is trying to come to the USA. Wumao, go collect your 50 cent before the funds dry up.
@@zacksmith5963purchasing power parity is a number provided only by china's government and no one else can see the real data. It's made up..nominal gdp is measured by international organizations. Nominal gdp is more accurate and it says the US economy is nearly 10 trillion dollars larger than china's.
@@zacksmith5963 Sure, USA lost. Come and see me in 10 years, China!
Trade wars? Also America does not allow china to purchase any tech companies overseas
They don’t even give numbers in a lot of things anymore.
Surprisingly good briefing
USA doesn't need to raise retirement age, they just need to close the tax loopholes.
That will never happen. The Left have been promising to "Soak the Rich" for generations and yet the gap between the poor and rich has been growing, and its actually been growing faster under Democrat Presidents (Clinton and Obama) than Republican Presidents. Back in the 90's my boss asked me to do a study on what the percentage of Federal Income comes from Income Tax and it was remarkably consistent (within a few percentage points) no matter what the top tax rate was. So yes, the tax loopholes you mention. Basically what types of income are not taxable. The very wealthy make sure that their income is the non-taxable kind.
@@jongrho602 If Americans didn't keep voting for Republicans, Biden has said he wants to put a minimum tax on billionaires WEALTH and make the ultra rich pay their fair share. The only problem is people are so brainwashed by the past they can't see that he actually wants to change things. And before you say that's a lie, he's already passed bills bringing manufacturing and production back to the USA, and actually led the country to a decent recovery from the pandemic. You guys should really be in recession right now because of what Trump did.
Not gonna happen
6:08 was a fantastic description of the Chinese stock market.
Really excellent DW. Thank You so much!!!
Bot
The Ministry of Public Security of China issued an important reminder:
If you are out of town recently, please don’t argue with others. If the other person is... a stock investor, no one can help you!
how reliable is DW's interview
Compared to what baseline?
FT? Since that's kinda the gold standard, I would say less.
Compared to -pick a random Chinese outlet? Pretty much the gold standard itself.
@@MikeJones50911 Deutsche Welle is very credible. They once said that Putin will fail, Russia has no artillery shells, and sanctions will have a devastating blow to the Russian economy.
DW, like every other NATO media, is never reliable when it comes to political things.
@MikeJones50911 DW News is consistently reliable and credible for what ? For own political interesse, yes. For others, like war report or economic data from other nations, absolutely wrong.
Peter Zeihan has been nailing this point over thepasr few years. Bring him on too.
Peter is a doomsayer. He correctly identifies issues ( like many others have ) but then proceed to overblow their consequences and the ability of protagonists to adapt.
Peter zeihan ramblings😂😂😂😂
Australia is a tiny economy compared to China. It takes the Australian Bureau of Statistics over 60 days to complete and publish quarterly GDP data. How a country as large and complex as China can publish data in such a short period of time is mind boggling
The Chinese are much more efficient than Australians.
They have 5 G, quantum computers, super computers, that are among the fastest in the world. Don't compare a lightweight that still does not have stable internet beyond your cities, with a superpower.
Who knows? The only thing you know for sure is that their numbers are forever to serve political purposes and needs at the time.
Seeing is beleaving. What i see now in germany is from one crisis to another crisis. Maybe this DW bias news can make some germen feel a litrle bit better until tomorrow's electric bill come to knock the door. 😂😂😂
5:55 "Peking"! That threw me off for a second.
Her mentality is still stuck in 1800s.
What's peking? Pigeon?
Central authorities need accurate data if they are massage it. You can't cook the books if you're working with cooked data.
They use accurate data but don't report accurate data.
No they dont. The regional authorities are every bit as corrupt as the central.
Like all crooks they have 2 sets of books.
It's microwave reheated data.
@@fba90130 Sounds like they have 3-4 sets of books and are trying to get down to two 😅
It like Goebles saying that if anyone lies, he will be annoyed.
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is following this very informative content cheers Frank 😊
This guy is more of an actor than an analyst. He is reinforcing some DW narrative than analysing. The contradictions and lack of context is glaring.
He's spot on actually, sorry you don't like hearing it.
@@Djamonja I actually agree with him about the Chinese economy slowing down. Unfortunately this is in a context of a global economic slow down with the worse collapse happening in the west. I even agree that Chinese GDP numbers are made up but GDP numbers for all countries are made up the same way. If you had some economics background, you would understand and I could explain it to you or you might have noticed the contradictions yourself. Hey, believe what you want.
Or go read up on the fundamentals of economics and the concept and history of money and the USD. And when you have a masters degree on it, we can have an intelligent discussion. And you can see through these half truths and BS.
@@olderchin1558Sorry but stop using whataboutism here. The us statistics agency as an example is not controlled by any one political party. Thats why it reports recessions. Crazy isnt it.
@@olderchin1558 whats collapse in the "WEST"? Please provide your insight.
@@seimassmirda Which country would you like to discuss or you are familiar with ?
The lady was so disappointed that she did get what she expected to hear.
Lmao they always bring in experts who dance around the topic, never say what everyone knows. apparently no one told them about how derek scissors presents XD He is straightforward to a fault.
It comes down to saving face. The moral negatives of lying about the data are secondary to how they appear to a global audience.
would it be too late to discuss "reliable" of China economic data or since when did DW or CNN or BBC believe the numbers falsified ?
First person I've heard say that China is in economic decline after the short term.
USA and EU investors have not lost confident in HK/China. The insituitions are being legally forced not to invest in China. For business investors, plenty of small and medium sized businesses are getting in to these places to invest and grow.
People in HK/China have already lost confidence upon economy...e.g. HK people are exchange all their savings into USD!
They say that NOW after it's been 30 years of making up Numbers, from population to GDP...
Source ? Proof ??
We went to my father in law’s small town for spring festival this year. I do feel that youngsters roaming on the streets become much less this year then last year. Maybe they had returned to big cities for job opportunities.
why do you care about the accuracy of China data?
People generally like to call out liars so that others know whom to trust.
1990. The Economist. China's economy has come to a
halt.
1996. The Economist. China's economy will face a hard
landing
1998. The Economist: China's economy entering a
dangerous period of sluggish growth.
1999. Bank of Canada: Likelihood of a hard landing for
the Chinese economy.
2000. Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails hard
landing risk coffin.
2001. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas: A hard landing in
China.
2002. Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks a
Soft Economic Landing
2003. KWR International: How to find a soft landing if
China..
2004. The Economist: The great fall of China?
2005. Nouriel Roubini: The Risk of a Hard Landing in
China
2006. International Economy: Can China Achieve a Soft
Landing?
2007. TIME: Is China's Economy Overheating? Can China
avoid a hard landing?
2008. Forbes: Hard Landing In China?
2009. Fortune: China's hard landing. China must find a
way to recover.
2010. Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China.
2011. Business Insider: A Chinese
2012. American Interest: Dismal Economic News from
China: A Hard Landing
2013. Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China
2014. CNBC: A hard landing in China.
2015. Forbes: Congratulations, You Got Yourself A
Chinese Hard Landing..
2016. The Economist: Hard landing looms for China
2017. National Interest: Is China's Economy Going To
Crash?
2018. CNN: Forget the trade war, China's economy has other big problems
2020. Economics Explained: The Scary Solution to the
Chinese Debt Crisis
2021. Global Economics: Has China's Downfall Started?
2022. Cathie Wood: China's COLLAPSE Is FAR Worse
Than You Think
2022. Business Basics: China's Economic Crisis, GDP is
Crashing, Protests Everywhere. China's financial crisis is
Here.
@@lwwells so who should be trusted? US ? DW?
@@jianlili164 I’d say none of the above.
because China is asking for investments and partners
I just saw some two foxes telling other foxes that the grapes are sour, since none of them can get a taste of the grapes.
haha, i like your humor!
Taste which grapes? Chinese? All we have are Chinese grapes, and they’re good!
Why don't you ask who reliable about the figures from USA?
‘Derek Scissors’ - Bob Mortimer would be proud of coming up with that name 😂
When I was in New Brunswick I heard a story about billionaire K.C. Irving
(one of the richest men in Canada if not in the world at one time).
Someone said that Irving would go through wastebaskets
after office hours in the businesses he owned looking for documents
that would indicate what was really going on in those businesses
as opposed to what he was being told by his managers.
He owned so many businesses that he couldn't possibly run them all himself
but he didn't trust his managers to necessarily be telling the full truth
when he asked them how the businesses were doing.
I guess too many times his managers would just say,
"Oh, don't worry boss. Everything is going great. No problems at all".
Any time there is a hierarchy in business or in government
there is a chance that those lower in the hierarchy will
try to cover up problems and give a rose coloured view
of how things are going in the region or department they control.
What manager or politician or official wants to tell their boss
that things are going badly?
Deflation, rising unemployment, high debt and an real estate crisis but still 5% GDP growth. I really doubt it.
The most intuitive thing to consider is electricity consumption and taxes! China's electricity consumption and taxation have both increased!
And the struggle of the stock market
why don't you invite Gordon Chang?
Massive drop in investment , falling exports , falling manufacturing, little service growth , debt bubble burst , crashing property market , hard to see where the growth is coming from
They dont waste billions sponsoring warfronts. That's a huge saving.
The anchor seems really interested.
At least China is still a productive country. Not like others in Europe. If you visit China, you can see people are much more energetic than most of other countries. Chinese people don't waste their time on RUclips :)
😂 thats the most hilarious thing ive heard this year so far, you know they cant use youtube without paid VPN right??????? you know what is baidu and weibo?????
Free Brendan Kavanagh!
Don't touch the piano!!!
Tell him to get a regular job. Instead of leeching off the Chinese tourists.
“Communist China”, “ Reliable”, “Data”- what a contradiction
While the German economy is declining, why don't we discuss whether China shows real economic growth data... probably nothing...🤷🏻♂
Bingo
I have just relocated from Beijing to Germany having lived and worked there for 11.5 years. We even had our own company there and we have deep rooted connections into China for more than 30 years. To our experience and insights what we have now in China is not a plus in GDP, may it even be as low as the 2.4 stated by the commentator, but rather had steadfast recession. Everything is in the minus, literally everything. There is no plus whatsoever. All taxes are in the minus, all import and export data are on a downward trajectory, the house prices are collapsing, the entire construction industry is in a massive decline, the production industry is down, factories are closing all over the board, even the raw materials and commodities affiliated with the battery and solar industry have declined signifficantly. Hence:THERE IS NO PLUS IN GDP! We all need to get used to the "r-word" concerning the Chinese economy. Yes, recession. Let's all say it out loud: RECESSION.
Thank you for sharing your first hand experiences.
This is also what I hear from friends in Beijing. I also talk to people in the provinces (3rd and 4th tier cities). Doesn't seem to be that bad there, but then those were place which did NOT have a major boom either. Salary levels in those places did not exceed 2000-3000 Yuan for common people.
One friend is running a small chain of restaurants in Heilongjiang. Modern Dinner style, profesionally managed. So far they break even, people always have to eat. But they stopped investing now and say that many many other family owned restaurants are dying.
I believe you.
These factors look HORRIBLE... and that is what leaks out.
China contributes roughly 1/3 of world’s growth, it’s almost certain if China is in recession today, then Germany and many other western countries would have already in recession for a while.
By the way, IMF forecasted China’s GDP growth in Nov 2023 was 5.4%, up from 5% from previous months. And of course, IMF is not based in Beijing, they mustn’t know what you know in first hand.
China’s trade surplus in 2023 was $823 billion. It was $877 billion in 2022.
I keep waiting for him to tell me about this “Heisenberg” guy and blue meth.
Xi Jinping: Do you want China’s economic growth rate? Come on, I'll find someone to draw it and send it to you!
The Ministry of Public Security of China issued an important reminder:
If you are out of town recently, please don’t argue with others. If the other person is... a stock investor, no one can help you!
1990. The Economist. China's economy has come to
a
halt.
1996. The Economist. China's economy will face a
hard
landing
1998. The Economist: China's economy entering a
dangerous period of sluggish growth.
1999. Bank of Canada: Likelihood ofahard landing
for
the Chinese economy.
2000. Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails
hard
landing risk coffin.
2001. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas: A hard landingin
China.
2002. Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks
a
Soft Economic Landing
2003. KWR International: How to find a soft landing in
China.
2004. The Economist: The great fall of China?
2005. Nouriel Roubini: The Risk of a Hard Landingin
China
2006. International Economy: Can China Achieve a
Soft
Landing?
2007.TIME:Is China's Economy Overheating? Can
China
avoid ahard landing?
2008. Forbes: Hard Landing In China?
2009 Fortune: China's hard landing China must find a
way to recover.
2010. Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China.
2011. Business Insider: A Chinese
2012. American Interest: Dismal Economic News
from
China: A Hard Landing
2013 Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China
2014. CNBC: A hard landing in China.
201 5 Forbes: Congratulations, J You Got Yourself A
Chinese Hard Landing
2016. The Economist: Hard landing looms for China
2017. National Interest: Is China's Economy Going To
Crash?
2020. Economics Explained: The Scary Solution to the
Chinese Debt Crisis
2021. Global Economics: Has China's Downfall
Started?
2022. Cathie Wood: China's COLLAPSE Is FAR Worse
Than Vou Think
The message: why worry?
👍🏻 The official 🇨🇳 data are completely crooked since a long time for one single reason: real estate.
Very simple when you finish building new homes/apartments you declare the value per sqm that you want and multiply by the nb of sqm even though none of these apartment has been sold !!! And they have been advertising apartments at 1000-2000 USD/sqm in remote regions when these apartments have technically no value. In my view not more than 100-200 USD/sqm. So 10x more than real value… so if you multiply by 100.000s of apartments built then you understand.
Some more they have been literally forcing people to relocate in these apartments by cutting down on their access to school for their kids, medical coverage and so on… people got into heavy debt that they will never be able to pay back !
Another 5 years and disaster will strike anyway.
Another 5 years? China experts have been predicting their demise since their nineties. One expert wrote a best sellers book and put a definitive date of 2001 as the year of collapse. More 2 decades have since passed. This expert is still highly regarded and sort after for the next definitive date.
But, why, oh why were they able to hit GDP targets by +/- .01 for years and years?
Unimportend!What they have to do is to implement a good social safety net and pension system!Retierment age should get up every 2 year one year until its around 64 of age!
first you have to assume those numbers are factual
They lied for over 40 years😂
How can you be in a deflation period and have a 5.2 percent growth in 2023? How?
economic forecasting is about trends, and the trend doesn't look good for China exports. Hard to know about internal consumption, but with the size of their internal market, I wonder why they even care about exports.
Deflation make things cheaper and consumers will be buying more, and hence growth.
@@leezhieng that is not how it works usually
Reporter got the grin of a jackal while asking about GDP fall of China.....😂😂
But how reliable is the US economic data ?
The USA's data is far less reliable. The USA publishes GDP number that takes the current quarter and assumes the same growth for the next 3 quarter and calculate the growth in one year in the future, and it doesn't take consideration of inflation. That's where your Q4 rate of 3.3% and Q3 rate of 5% comes from. And guess what, Q4 YOY inflation is 3%! So it means zero actual GDP growth. Yet, western media like DW just take it, plaster it on the headline, no question asked, no controversy. And for 2023, USA's tax collection is down, export down, manufacturing PMI has been in contraction for much of the year, electricity usage is down. You tell me there is 5% GDP growth with 5% inflation? All I can say it magic fair dust numbers. And the stock market doesn't indicate real economic performance when the valuation of the entire stock market is all up.
Three point seven
how dare you doubt US data?
comparison with the US shows a feeling of inferiority
It reports recessions and its not controlled by any one political party. So figure it out.
Nevermind how reliable china economy is just worry about your own economy
Yes this.
They’re the second largest economy in the world, the largest exporter, second largest importer. They’re a very important player in the global economy so analysis on it is important
Chinas economy is so big that its infuences the whole world!
What is the name of this analyst? He is brilliant!
Hard to believe that a real person would say that. He was horrible. And I'm pretty sure the name was also there.
I didn't know that there are actual anti-china bots...
Analysts are a dime a dozen. We need more hands-on experts who not just cam talk impressively but can also make things happen and keep the wheels of industry turning. I doubt he knows how to replace a light bulb.
How you raise the retirement age without causing a lot of grief is you announce that in 2044 the retirement age will go up most of the people in retirement right now will be dead by then to be blunt
Yeah but that would be a problem for the next generation of leaders so why would they announce it now
So gdp is actually lower in 2023 at 2.4% instead of going higher. That would be closer to reality given the downturn of foreign invetment and divestment in China by global companies while other countries increase production to take up China's slack
No growth only lies
Source ??? Proof ???
If it was so bad, why would you worry about it?
They are best human😂
This commentator has so clear and unbiased prospectives
I almost laughing falling out of chair. EURO Zone ,German barely struggle to reach GDP 0-1%, but busy body and nosy to pointing at the country with GDP above 5%. 🤣
Sorry guys, I made a mistake. I am a bit optimistic about euro zone GDP..It is not 0-1%, it is -ve, recession to 1%... keep up the good work European!
Because recessions are not allowed to exist by the bureau of statistics lol?
I'll have Number 5 please, Ginger beef with oyster sauce over rice and a side of egg foo young.
Cleverly, finally after 15 mins he ends by saying reported gdp doesn't even really matter.
Industrial electricity consumption decline Our industry is fine, industrial electricity consumption increase is about to collapse
21 years in China, one promise, no one grew the last 4 years, all business is down a minimum 50% since 2019, everyone
CIA bot?
@@DBGE001 no, having seen constant bankruptcies of suppliers, the empty unfinished shells of semi-finished apartments and the extreme level of unemployment is easy to understand. No one I know is better of now than 2019 and no one has seen growth
@@peterseth3296 semiconductors and DJI is a tiny fraction of China export dependent economy. Millions are being laid off for a reason and that is no growth or losses, not exactly what happens in an economy growing 5%. Look no further than steel production to see the real numbers, always a good barometer on economic activity
Lol, your ignorance or lie is so obvious. There are no need to spread bad narratives and try to contain China if that's the case. We all know renewable and EV are growing for sure. 😅
@@peterseth3296semiconductor increased because it had to. China was cutoff from the “good stuff” for misuse.
The answer is about as reliable as everything else they claim.
But Volkswagen sold 3m autos, Mercedes sold 0.8m autos, BMW sold 0.8m autos in China
Probably it is just as reliable as your honesty.
byd sales 3m autos in 2023 idk where do you get that statistic
@@mastertrend4685
The downside of the locate governments reporting inflated GDP that they would have to contribute a certain percentage of their gains to the central government. I wonder how that work.
"Best case?" More like "fantasy" case!
We might never know whether a data is true or not. No matter where it came from. But most viewers also tend to selectively view the data that fit their own set of default narrative. We call this as "confirmation bias"
I actually think the question of how much China actually grew is a leading question because I don't even think their economy grew. I think the real question that needs to be asked is if China's economy grew or if it shrunk.
I actually think the question of how much China actually grew is a leading question because I don't even think their economy grew. I think the real question that needs to be asked is if China's economy grew or if it shrunk.
That's why we teach our kids not to lie. The truth will always win.
Well, the over 30 years of China economy is bad narratives is still have audience. They are not giving up even the truth wins. 🤣🤣
Honesty is always the best policy until something better comes along.
so, China lies for over 30 years? or you are telling your kids false info?
@@cinpeace353 yeah, just look at their stock market... and booming real estate. Everyone is a millionaire by doing food delivery and picking trash. I wish I was born there. It's like heaven. 😆
@@Laggie74 You sound like not knowing there are boom and bust in markets and delivery people in other parts of the world. Try look around the real world. 🤣🤣
Might as well ask if JP Morgan has done anything illegal lately........
I am Chinese, just to tell you the truth, the whole nation feels the vigorous economic development, for example, I bought a thousand lottery tickets and won 200 million in the Mark Seven.
Really, in Guangzhou, any job you find pays a monthly salary of no less than 100,000$
Fun fact:China economy is bigger than 4 Germanies 😅
fun fact: Chinas population is (officially) 18 times bigger than Germanies.
And not in recession unlike Germany
But it's population is almost 14 times that of germany as well
Europe shall not discriminate China because China choose one party system instead of using two party system. One party system let China develop much faster. Nowadays China is much more developed than India, Brazil , Indonesia or other developing countries. Its streets are also cleaner and safer than most developed countries. Its life expectancy is already 2 years longer than US life expectancy and 9 years longer than India life expectancy .
Expressway length in China reach 177,000 kms vs US 76,000 kms and India 4,900 kms. High speed railway length in China reach 42,000 kms vs both 0 kms in US and India. On top of that, China is also number 1 in many fields such as electricity generation, motor vehicle production
(30 million per year), steel and cement production, ship building capacity( China ship building capacity is 232 times greater than US ) while it is nowhere 50 or 70 years ago.
Take life expectancy of both China and US as example. In 1950 China life expectancy is about 38 vs US 68. After 71 years, in 2021 China life expectancy is 78.2 vs US 76.1( latest figure by CDC , US life expectancy dropped by 3 in 2020-2021 period from 79.1 originally). China expectancy increase by 40 years while US increase by 8 years only. China life expectancy increase 5 time faster than US.
Also Look at health care by comparing MMA rate( maternal mortality rate): in 1950 China maternal mortality is 1500 women death per 100,000 birth vs US 100 women death per 100,000 births. In 2021, China MMA is 16.1 vs US 23.8 per 100,000 (the lower the number , the better health care service level) .
Infant mortality rate: in 1950 China infant mortality is 195 death per 1000 birth vs US 26.8 death per 1000 births. In 2021, China infant mortality rate drop to 5 per 1000 vs US 5.4 per 1000 birth.
And people in China retire at 55 years old on average to access pension. About 12 years earlier than US's 67 years requirement while some countries may not have pension at all. It means an American need work extra 40*52*12=25,000 hrs in his life than an average person in China. It also means an American only has 9 years to enjoy retirement while an average person in China has 23 years to enjoy retirement. And it is not means or asset tested when access pension in China. It means you get your pension monthly even you stay overseas, are a multi-millionaire or have another job after retirement. Singapore is another example of one party system. Its gdp is highest among Asia.
An unemployed person in Ireland receives from the government just 2,000 euro less than the average wage in China.
That's cash in hand payment.
Factor in all other unemployment benefits and an unemployed person in Ireland gets more per year than the average fully employed Chinese citizens.
No surprise. The world pour billions into China to rebuild it. Good for the Chinese that they have enjoyed a golden age. But tides come and go. China is so huge that when it starts to move it's hard to stop it. It's moving into the wrong direction now. Steer clear.
@@user-sm9jy2jm1i cost of living is important also. In China, electricity per kWh is about 7 cents Euro for peak hour and 4 cents Euro for off peak hour. That is the money customer need pay. There is no additional charge such as gst, service fee, electricity network charge. How much euro per kWh in Ireland? How many kWh electricity 2000 Euro can buy?
@harrysmith8515
Well, myself personally , my rooftop is covered in solar panels, generating 60% of my energy needs.
My geothermal heat pump gives me heating and hot water all year round.
I've worked hard for my living.
It annoys me somewhat to see people who do nothing get so much.
I guess that's democracy for you.
I guess that's Christianity for you.
A country shall be defined by how well it takes care of the least fortunate members of society.
For a country is just a piece of land without its people.
A tiny % hold the wealth in China.
The average Chinese is dirt poor in comparison to westerns.
Chinese tourists have practically disappeared because they need to de-risk from U$A EU UK.
On the evening of January 23, a Chinese citizen was splashed with chemical liquid on a street in Honolulu, Hawaii.
She was seriously injured, in coma and hospitalized for treatment.
23-1-2024 A South Korea man traveling in Italy was mistaken as a Chinese.
He was provoked by monkey calls and shouting discriminatory words.
He was also robbed of his valuables and sprayed with pepper spray.
Not even a question worth asking. We all know the answer.
The narrative that youth unemployment is due to people refusing simple jobs because of their education does not hold up: total youth unemployment exceeds the percentage of unemployed youth with secondary education.
Hedge funds use satellites to track Chinese power plant output. But issue is Xi sometimes has power plants operate even if no electrical demand.
There are also some interesting estimates based on light output seen from space.
@@zargornsource ???
And xi has switched on the lights even in the day..😂
@@sps6 source ???
@@zacksmith5963 what your source Chinese communist party? 😀
CCP bots, ACTIVATE!
Western Fascism ACTIVATE.
@@yifuhood salty? hehahaha
Cia bot spotted😂😂😂
@@zacksmith5963wumao spotted 😂
the europeppa is mad🌚🌚
would you tell everyone how much money in your pocket ?
If you don’t believe China GDP data or whatever data, don’t smear China. If you have evidence, feel free to share and China will put in efforts to improve.