Patek Philippe’s Stunning Decline: Is It the Biggest Loser in 2024?
HTML-код
- Опубликовано: 15 окт 2024
- Patek Philippe Market Update: The Shocking Downturn No One Expected!
Welcome back, watch enthusiasts! Today, we're diving into a jaw-dropping revelation involving Patek Philippe-a brand many believed to be invincible in the luxury watch world. But the latest market data tells a different story, one that may shake up everything we thought we knew about high horology.
Could Patek Philippe, the king of luxury timepieces, actually be losing its throne? The numbers are in, and Patek might be seen as the biggest loser in the current luxury watch market. We’re breaking down the most surprising data points, with Patek Philippe's models taking unexpected hits and a few unlikely contenders rising to the top.
Join me as we explore the hidden stories behind the numbers-which models are struggling, and which ones are defying the odds? From sharp value shifts across the Nautilus, Aquanaut, and Calatrava collections to the surprising rise of stainless steel models, there’s plenty to unpack, and it’s bound to leave you stunned.
This is independent market analysis with no strings attached-no sponsorships, no dealer influence-just the raw truth from an economist who’s passionate about watches. If you thought Patek Philippe was untouchable, think again. The luxury watch market is evolving, and Patek’s position is not as secure as it once seemed.
Don't miss out on these insights that could change the way you see luxury watch collecting. Like and subscribe for more hard-hitting watch market analysis, and make sure to click the bell icon so you never miss an update.
*#PatekPhilippe #WatchMarketUpdate #LuxuryWatches #WatchCollecting #Horology #PatekSurprise #WatchCharts*
Hey I think you have the 5712A Nautilus mixed up with the 7300 24 automatic. I can’t find the 5712 anywhere for less than $80-90K . Always love the content.
I agree that there must been some sort of typo. I almost spat out my coffee when I saw a 5712a could be had for 22,5k.
I agree, when I saw this I was like where? I will go buy that now at that price.
Could be. I do make mistakes. 84 models was a lot of analyze.
I mean the 5712 is an extremely popular patek. It should stand out for any watch enthusiast even if one were to analyse 200 watches. Great work in the video but a GLARING mistake with the 5712, sorry
Ha literally paused to Google 5712 to see if I had missed something.
When watch brands don’t realise their customers are ultimately consumers, they only have 2 wrists and 99% of them only wears a watch on 1 wrist, it’s a matter of time consumers forsake the brand altogether. A watch was never a necessity and never will be one
@@JLim3111 Watch smartwatches commit market murder as their prices continue to fall. A watch is a convenience providing you with information at the turn of a wrist. And once you buy into that convenience you abandon the old. Apple wins almost by default. My grandkids can’t even read an analog clock. Why would they buy a Rolex? They’ll find some other way to spend large amounts of money. IMHO
The real problem with Patek is the wrong people bought them for the wrong reasons. A luxury watch is meant to be enjoyed then passed on, any of my friends and family who own rolex/cartier/patek will never sell.
I would never sell my Patek. But then, I can't justify buying one on my salary.
Unless it’s a black card, I don’t think any credit card will suffice, lol.
Thanks for the work done 👍
10:02 was wrong. Twenty-4 Automatic is not 5712/1A (Nautilus Moon Phase Power Reserve), and 5712-1A is not traded at $22K.
Haha yes, I did miss that in my check.
As always the most thoughtful , well researched & eloquent watch channel around , keep AMZWATCH coming !
Kudos for such a well done analysis of Patek. I have no idea what fancy terms an economist would call what is happening with Patek’s prices on the gray market declining below their retail price, but It all starts with keeping its watches “unobtainium”. Patek makes it almost impossible for a collector to buy a Patek at an AD. Therefore, many collectors are TURNED OFF to the point where we don’t buy a Patek even on the gray market! Apparently there are enough of us collectors have lost interest in the brand, so the prices are falling. I have my eye on a particular Patek that is affordable but is not at my strike price yet.
I feel the same way. I went to their boutique and found that you couldn't try on their models. Maybe you needed to make an appointment? But I got the feeling they wouldn't let me into their club.
@@mywatchjourney6579 Ditto.
Great analysis as always. Obviously the limited numbers made has something to do with those 3 high flyers.
Just more evidence that those who think luxury brands will move away from steel to precious metal only (like the laughable ’Rolex will leave steel for Tudor’ theory) are sadly mistaken.
It is not Patek, or any of these luxury watch brands. It is simply an economic cycle. Collectively, the declining 2024 number is likely the best for these brands when look back several years from now.
I'm going to make a video about why the decline, especially for Rolex, will continue.
As always the most thoughtful , well researched & eloquent watch channel around , keep MAMACOO coming !
got my 39mm with the white dial on the 3-link "Bader" bracelet watch on AMZWATCH 3 weeks ago and am loving it to pieces. Absolute fantastic watch that wears super comfortable on my 6.75 inch wrist. Chose the 3-link over the 5-link bracelet for the toolless quick adjustment. Way more comfortable than my Longines Hydroconquest 41 mm.
Great video, very accurate analysis. In my 4.5 years in the game as a watch collector and enthusiast, I collected a lot from MAMACOO I was thinking I was able to get a blue SD but I'm not vip enough, but I'm not giving up. Hehe. Great video.
Love your channel with so many stellar watches! For me the MAMACOO’ watch is my favorite. Keep the videos coming. Thanks.
What is MAMACOO?
Great insight but we must remember with Patek Philippe what’s holding value or still over retail are any variants of the Nautilus and Aquanaut. They are still way over retail in the used market but no where near pandemic hype prices. Everything else in the Patek world is mostly classic dress watches that barely hold value. However in a decade or two these classic Patek models will increase in value in the collector market. The only classic models from Patek that are over retail and hood some value are grand complications watches. Especially with minute repeaters, tourbillions, or perpetual chronographs. These are true collectibles. We have to take in consideration the volume of yearly production for Patek Philippe. Right now it’s all about Patek Philippe entry level sports models that are still in demand but over valued. Patek Philippe know this, they appreciate the free marketing, exposure, but do not like their timepiece sold and traded by people who are just not traditional Patek Philippe customers. They discontinued a few basic sports models because it takes attention away from what they are best known for… Classic high Horology.
All the analysis I've done shows that complications are punished in the secondary market; but it's true that they might appreciate over time. One way to play this would be to buy high complications are current steep discounts and see if they go up in value over the years.
Excellent analysis
Amazing vid!! I remember when the 5980 in Rose Gold was being listed for 450k during Covid 😂😂. Times have changed
Yes, and you can tell from the comments that some people are pretty pissed about their pieces dropping in value.
Do you think serving costs have anywto do with the move away from complications?
What do you mean by 'serving costs'? I personally hate rotating my watches and having to set the date again.
God!!! MAMACOO Who would have thought those gorgeous watches go for that low!!!
I’d buy an Aquanaut at retail. I guess lots of people would.
It's still selling over retail. I would only buy it if you truly loved the watch. It's a lot of money.
Outstanding video.I have to go with the AMZWATCH, especially with that green dial as my favorite
Your analysis is a bit misleading, for example the nautilus did drop but the watches in that collection are usually trading way over retail.
Also, you’re implying that people are turning back to steel, but I highly doubt that’s the case. The steel models are getting rarer as PP gradually moves to precious metals. So this would make sense, the steel cases becoming rarer, raising the prices. While customer demand might be a factor, I think it’s mostly due to short supply.
And finally, like everyone said, you got the 5712 way wrong.
But that doesn't explain why precious metals are dropping so fast below retail. It's overall demand.
In my humble opinion the secondary market has nothing to do with a company's performance and growth. Sure the CURRENT line-up secondary market value, reflects on whether a model gets the approval of the consumers and for sure some models were/are/will be a miss, Patek Philippe models included.The line-ups are massive nowadays and inevitably some models will not fair well with consumers. It is similar with cars for example, BMW for example 20 years ago had 3 models 3series, 5series and 7series, now you get a headache looking at their line-up and obviously some models are a hit and some are miss. And for sure its a mistake for any company or so called investors to believe that anything that comes out will be a hit.
You raise of lot of good points. I don't judge a company because their products lose value on the secondary market. I take two things from this. First, the crazy pricing of the pandemic is truly dying down. However, this image of Patek as being above market conditions is refuted by my analysis. No one is exempt from the reality of consumer demand.
You’re an economist, interesting they really are very good at telling you what has happened ….but I suggest you haven’t got a clue about the future. Nice graphs mate
No one is good at predicting the future. But so far, I'm batting a thousand on the market direction. See my earlier predictions.
These affect real world purchases. I'm not in Patek scale of purchases, but I am looking for a gold Rolex. My local AD was lovely, let me try on gold GMTs, Subs and Yachtmasters. I was offered various models for immediate purchase, even with finance. However, every model was at least 6k gbp more than secondary market. It can only be a matter of time before discounts at Ads return.
Agreed. Let's wait. Those precious metal models are getting hit very hard in the market.
How much for the cost? Exactly.
Where are you getting 5712 A for such a low price? Couldn’t find anything on Chrono’s
All the data comes from Watch Charts on this one
He messed up. He combined the Twenty~4 with the 5712. It’s a pretty stunning mistake from someone pontificating on Patek.
y axis is from 200k to slightly above. with such close indexes, any drop would look more dramatic
It's still a significant drop. And many individual watches have fallen more.
5712…….i think not. Unfortunately
I use to want a Patek because it was a brand that NO one except true watch collectors wanted. Now it’s more popular than Rolex for influencers and the nouveau rich
Most people don't know the name, certainly not the history. But since watches are now jewelry, it's gotten worse with the hype.
@@mywatchjourney6579 I remember seeing my first Patek out in the open. The year was 1996 and I was newbie working at HSBC. I rocked a TT Datejust left to me by my dad (RIP 1995). One of my colleagues complemented my Rolex and said it was a nice watch for a junior associate. I looked down and saw it. Calatrava.
“Trade you straight up!” He chuckled.
My fellow new associate chimed in
“What the hell? You’d trade your Rolex for that?”
I told him there’s no way he would trade his Patek Philippe for a Rolex!
“What the hell is a Patty Phillips?”
Not everyone was into watches back in 1996 😂
As much as Patek does not want to be defined by the Nautilus & Aquanaut, the way we dress has become much less formal.
The Calatrava, 5172G and PCC are quintessential Patek, but I am a minority.
Maybe Pateks imminent new release is Pateks concession to the demand for sport/casual trend.
I will be very surprised if a reference is released that is in steel and time/date format!
Agreed on the new dress code. I used to wear a suit at work. Now it's whatever.
All dat MAMACOO watches sssssoooooooo gorgeous!
I have never been disappointed since I became a customer of MAMACOO. Their watches are of exceptional quality.
All luxury goods are getting hammered. Happened before, will happen again. For those who have kept their powder dry, opportunities are imminent.
All of these trends are based on aftermarket sales. These brands don’t care, especially when retailers will pivot to selling you pieces underperforming on the after market in order to get the pieces that do perform well. Only the customer loses here.
The brands do care, especially about flipping. And the customers benefit when secondary prices are below retail. At the least, the wait list is shorter.
@@mywatchjourney6579They care about flipping, only to the degree they prefer there wasn’t a secondary market and that customers weren’t encouraged to sell their watches for a profit. Rolex CEO Jean Dufour is quoted saying, “watches are not an investment.”
And they aren’t, secondary market is based purely on demand, “the flavor of the month.” 5167 Aquanaut is a $24k watch, at that height it’s resale value was $100k this drove Patek mad because what happens is the watch is treated like a commodity and the rest of the line is ignored and true collectors lose out. Brands want the secondary market to disappear.
Also, there is no such thing as waitlist, it’s a myth. All authorize dealers go by spend history, if you buy nothing and just wait for an in demand watch you wait forever.
MAMACOO watches are great and affordable!
A clock on your wrist when you can get an Apple & have the time, appointments, blood glucose rating, blood pressure, internet, e-mail and a thousand other apps for less than $400…or you can get a clock for $15,000. And the Apple keeps better time because it’s on line! I have a Timex Expedition. $39.
I do appreciate my smart watch. But the love of mechanical watches remains.
@@mywatchjourney6579 why? What is it about mechanical watches that you love and how do you feel about quartz watches?
I can see that. I just can’t afford it! 🤗 But yeah, if I ever have 10 grand laying around…!
For the same reasons that people spend big money on art. They enjoy the art and being able to afford to buy it is a status symbol.
@@shanghaiffgg I think you’re right. Thorstein Veblen in the 1920s called it “conspicuous consumption”. (The Theory of the Leisure Class). If they dropped the price of a Rolex to $200, perhaps nobody would want it. But charge $15,000- status symbol.
5712 is not trading in the 30’s
a $22k PP is sure an affordable watch even at 40% drop hehe
Yeah, affordable in the world of luxury watches is something else. I started with Casio and worked my way up to Rolex. But I can't justify any higher.
It's called a weak economy. The more expensive watches are going to lose more value. It's just the way it works. But for people like me who like the grand complications and like the gold It's a good thing
Precisely. Economists call it elasticity of demand. The higher the price, the more flexibility in price adjustments.
Who thought they were infallible ?
Most asters bubbled up during Covid and then fell to earth after. Couple this with the bust of luxury spending coming from the Chinese and you have your answer. What this means is that the market is trying to the norm therefore there is no recovery to be had. The correction IS the decline.
You are way off in your comments and analysis 😂 (1) consider that retail prices have increased due to inflation (2) do you homework, some of the models you show are discontinued, btw a 5712A at 22k 😂😂😂 I would love to live in your world.
I always enjoy people telling an economist to study inflation.
I have “real” watches and a lot of them. I have a friend who buys the AMZWATCH we put them side by side and guess what ?! It’s unbelievable!!! I am at the Rolex boutique with her and no one can tell he has a fake
10:01 😅😂
the good days of ultra high margin swiss watches are numbered as consumers smarten up
Clearly, spending money is being directed elsewhere. Also, China is in a deep hole and not coming out soon.
I'm genuinely impressed with how close MAMACOO were able to replicate every aspect of this very very goofy looking classic watch.
No one cares what watch you wear except you. So as the man says, take your time. Buy what you like. Enjoy life.MAMACOO
This video is complete waste of time. Your Y-axis is distorted, because it doesn‘t start from zero. It tells nothing.
Wrong, it starts from the value of the index 2 years ago. When did Patek sell for zero dollars?
@@mywatchjourney6579 you still didn't get it? Now why don't you re-create charts in Excel, one starting like this and other starting from zero. You will see that the curvatures are totaly different. It is not about zero dollar Patek, but about curvature shape.
I really don't like when people make conclusions on non meaningful charts , what is the base you are comparing with .
It's a market index. I think that's clear.
The watch is friggin ugly
I can only afford Rolex watches. PP is way over priced
no ones wearing a 5711 daily.. prove me wrong,, nonone