What's the Rarest Thing that can Happen in Animal Crossing New Horizons? (Part 2)

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  • Опубликовано: 27 июл 2024
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    Continuing the theme of finding rare events in ACNH, we shift our focus towards things like island layouts, turnips, and more!
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    Part 1: • What's the Rarest Thin...
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    Gamingchibix's Thread: / all_possible_default_m...
    Turnip Prophet: turnipprophet.io/
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    0:00 Introduction
    0:34 30 percent
    1:55 7.14 percent
    4:21 2.5 percent
    6:08 1.11 percent
    7:10 1.22 percent
    9:10 1.05 percent
    10:27 0.055 percent (check pinned comment)
    11:16 0.0028 percent
    13:45 Ad
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    Animal Crossing New Horizons Guide to JULY! Bugs, Fish, Events and More! (Northern Hemisphere) • Animal Crossing New Ho...
    I Let This Flower Spread for 1 Year... (Animal Crossing New Horizons) • I Let This Flower Spre...
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    #AnimalCrossingNewHorizons #AnimalCrossing #ACNH
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Комментарии • 1,7 тыс.

  • @courtneylawrence6268
    @courtneylawrence6268 3 года назад +8802

    The rarest event that can possibly occur is Isabelle actually having useful announcements.

    • @armadillolizard101
      @armadillolizard101 3 года назад +273

      Dangggg, why you gotta do Isabelle like that

    • @pembrokelove
      @pembrokelove 3 года назад +375

      Isabelle’s TV habits are super important!

    • @GoddessSixx
      @GoddessSixx 3 года назад +34

      Hahahaha this!

    • @iamjohnporter67
      @iamjohnporter67 3 года назад +101

      Isabelle is so useless in this game. Don't try to defend her.

    • @bestinfinity1
      @bestinfinity1 3 года назад +49

      @@pembrokelove yea that means she has time off when we turn off the game or get out of the resident services

  • @jjgamer3606
    @jjgamer3606 3 года назад +5080

    What about the chance of Timmy and Tommy actually selling the items you want for your decorations

    • @spinda1970
      @spinda1970 2 года назад +93

      0.00000000000001

    • @Vicky-fi3yr
      @Vicky-fi3yr 2 года назад +35

      LOOL it took me like 3 months to get my cranny to sell a simple panel

    • @FriskyD.
      @FriskyD. 2 года назад +35

      Or the gold hole being in a spot where a tree would actually look nice

    • @amymacdonald2453
      @amymacdonald2453 2 года назад +2

      @@spinda1970 YES

    • @sunsetgaming6283
      @sunsetgaming6283 2 года назад +6

      Oh then I must have the best island because I always think I like everything

  • @Chad_sprout
    @Chad_sprout 3 года назад +2985

    the rarest event is getting a actually good villager in your campsite.

    • @shaylacoles7452
      @shaylacoles7452 3 года назад +37

      I got Marshal and Julian from my campsite but didn't take Julian or I wouldn't have been able to get Marshal.

    • @Chad_sprout
      @Chad_sprout 3 года назад +16

      yeah ive gotten okay ones, but its hard to get a good villager

    • @shaylacoles7452
      @shaylacoles7452 3 года назад +24

      I got 2 gorilas in a row once-

    • @Chad_sprout
      @Chad_sprout 3 года назад +3

      I've also had Zell, sadly got rid of him for lily

    • @shaylacoles7452
      @shaylacoles7452 3 года назад +4

      @@Chad_sprout ugh lucky lily is the best phroggg

  • @hencethepointofrice
    @hencethepointofrice 3 года назад +1793

    When I was starting to play Animal Crossing, I swear I dug up a golden hole with 5,000 bells. I have never seen it ever again and haven't heard news about anyone else getting it. I didn't take a screenshot either because I didn't know it was rare at the time. I am now starting to wonder if it ever really happened :')

    • @Dagnel
      @Dagnel  3 года назад +385

      Possibly... I've never seen it personally though!

    • @TheArtfulAxolotl
      @TheArtfulAxolotl 3 года назад +124

      It has happened to me before but I never got a picture

    • @danyhunselar9654
      @danyhunselar9654 3 года назад +24

      There is such a Spot every day once!

    • @pringlemcfly
      @pringlemcfly 3 года назад +13

      Same I think

    • @fatemashahjalali684
      @fatemashahjalali684 3 года назад +17

      They removed to maybe

  • @joenamath5480
    @joenamath5480 3 года назад +823

    Ah yes, smacking rocks with a shovel for research. There seems to be nothing you won't do in this game. I don't think there's many people who would go to that extent.

    • @Dagnel
      @Dagnel  3 года назад +101

      thank you hall of fame Jets quarterback Joesph Namath, very honored!

    • @ChristSavez
      @ChristSavez 2 года назад +1

      I don't know if he is real

    • @obamacare4262
      @obamacare4262 2 года назад

      @@ChristSavez woooo, wily?

  • @peppycrossing2796
    @peppycrossing2796 3 года назад +475

    Ok but am I the only one really interested the factors affecting the native flower of your island now 😂😂 never knew that

    • @Dagnel
      @Dagnel  3 года назад +50

      Yeah, I'd like to see how it works exactly!

    • @avoii
      @avoii 3 года назад +2

      nope ur not the only one🤣

    • @avoii
      @avoii 3 года назад +7

      @@queenkatara7861 interesting. i didn’t read thru the whole thing but is there anything abt cliff flowers? i’m born in october and my cliff flowers are mums, which are in season in october. i did start my island this month (i restarted) and mums aren’t available in july

    • @queenkatara7861
      @queenkatara7861 3 года назад +7

      @@avoii So the cliff flowers are your native flowers. The sister flowers that you sometimes see on mystery islands are determined by the month you started your island. So for me, my native is roses as a June baby and I sometimes see pansies on mystery islands as I started my island in the month of April.

    • @deffokeerith
      @deffokeerith 3 года назад +1

      Omg, I see u on froggy crossings videos so muchh

  • @MminaMaclang
    @MminaMaclang 3 года назад +493

    I've always thought that Animal Crossing is such a great way to teach basic statistics and probabilities.

    • @Brando2301
      @Brando2301 2 года назад +36

      Such a great way to teach basic gambling addiction in my case...

    • @RGC_animation
      @RGC_animation 2 года назад +1

      @@Brando2301 "You see! I once got my 99,999 Bell tree to triple once! So it's worth it!"

  • @kuwuryz4765
    @kuwuryz4765 3 года назад +387

    I want to share that my starting villagers were Bam & Shari
    And then I saw that Jacksepticeye also had the exact same starting villager combo
    Thought I had a special connection with the dude through that 0.055% chance🙏

    • @Bttns_Twine
      @Bttns_Twine 3 года назад +3

      I had Bam and Shari too!

    • @angelreilly8312
      @angelreilly8312 2 года назад +7

      SCREW YOU SHARI 🤣

    • @CatsForTheCatGod
      @CatsForTheCatGod 2 года назад +2

      I had Boots and Shari! Boots I love, Shari got booted 🤣

    • @Peter-nj8lv
      @Peter-nj8lv 2 года назад +4

      @@angelreilly8312 god I hate Shari too lol

    • @kllxenq
      @kllxenq 2 года назад +1

      I got Ursula and hamlet-

  • @OlDoodX
    @OlDoodX 3 года назад +508

    You could also just bury 30k everytime, 'cause the least you can get back is 3x 10k. If you lucky tho, you'll get 3x 30k. So you basically never lose.

    • @a_thxna
      @a_thxna 3 года назад +22

      wait- dats true

    • @micahedgehill494
      @micahedgehill494 3 года назад +96

      … if you bury 30K every time, you’re still technically losing money. if for every 10K you bury, you’re guaranteed to make 30K, you’re still losing the opportunity to make 90K for every 30K you bury instead of 10K (over the course of three days) and don’t get lucky (making 90K from one tree). this is of course with the assumption that planting 30K is a lot for some players who aren’t multi-bellionaires

    • @SkaterDoodx
      @SkaterDoodx 3 года назад +17

      So basically if you bury 30k you will make 30k back put in the form of 3 10k bags and so planting that will result in a loss of potential money?

    • @krekire4152
      @krekire4152 2 года назад +47

      @@micahedgehill494 To elaborate. You have a guranteed 20K profit with 10k bells. But, if you bury 30k, you have a 70% chance of gaining a profit of 0 which averages out to be 0 bells. You also have a 30% chance to gain a profit of 60K bells. This really means you have an average of earning only 18K bells if you bury 30k, but of course, you only have the outcomes of 0 or 60k. If you do even more math, I've worked out that if you get 2 or less days where you triple, you effectively lose money. However, three or more, and you gain money. I dont quite know how to work out specific percentages, but I do know that having a profit of 120k is most likely, resulting in a net loss of 20k because you couldve gained 140k.

    • @krekire4152
      @krekire4152 2 года назад +5

      To anyone who wants to figure out the exact stats, you just have to figure out how many permutations fit into every combo of profitable and neutral days and then do some compound probability. I just dont know how to find out how many permutations there are of a specific combination, only that there are 8 combinations and 128 permutations.

  • @jstnee
    @jstnee 3 года назад +241

    I actually graphed the turnip prices in Nooks Cranny for a while (for at least a few months i think) just for fun. And I found that to reach an EXTREMELY high selling price (500+ bells) happens about every 3 ish months. Ofc, this only counts the data through my Nooks Cranny, so it could different throughout everyone's islands. Also, if anyone wanted to know, turnip prices tend to rise over a course of 3 days, hitting the peak on the middle day, usually in the afternoon. The peak could be as low as the price you bought turnips at and most of the time (according my island prices) the week after your prices hit a high, the next week will be filled with completely low prices. Just thought this was cool to share lol :)

  • @sarahwick6514
    @sarahwick6514 3 года назад +1120

    My starting villagers were Sprocket and Rocket. I think that’s fun.

    • @avoii
      @avoii 3 года назад +10

      lol

    • @lynndoesntexist
      @lynndoesntexist 3 года назад +14

      yoooo I started with Rocket too! I love her!

    • @msanonymous9577
      @msanonymous9577 3 года назад +5

      mine were Sprocket and Mira :)

    • @skyejacobs
      @skyejacobs 3 года назад +4

      Mine were Dom and Reneigh

    • @georgiammt2025
      @georgiammt2025 3 года назад +1

      Mine were sprocket and Tammy :]

  • @chandler2581
    @chandler2581 2 года назад +155

    I once had Redd show up three consecutive weeks with all fakes. I don't know what the odds are of that but it wasn't fun.

    • @jaygay6576
      @jaygay6576 2 года назад +14

      He's really trying hard to rip you off I guess

    • @butters6795
      @butters6795 2 года назад

      what do fakes do?

    • @chandler2581
      @chandler2581 2 года назад +8

      @@butters6795 All I really know is that you can't donate fakes to the museum. I think some of them do weird things at night but I've never displayed a fake on my island or in my house so I don't really know.

    • @butters6795
      @butters6795 2 года назад

      @@chandler2581 ohhh i didn't know he could sell fake art! that's interesting redd is pretty shady tho haha

    • @ivorydoves
      @ivorydoves 2 года назад +3

      @@butters6795 You’ve already gotten your questions answered but some fake paintings can be haunted or have… dubious things on the back of them. Take that information as you will.

  • @Totalcryptid
    @Totalcryptid 3 года назад +71

    Dude this guy is so logical that I can hear the intense music playing as he pushes his glasses up and smirks about to blow my mind

    • @magentasky234
      @magentasky234 2 года назад +10

      And the glasses flash white when he pushes them up

  • @francinesux
    @francinesux 3 года назад +64

    the siren when he said 1312 lmao

  • @brickbot2.038
    @brickbot2.038 3 года назад +169

    I watched a video on getting gold, and it turns out that mystery islands actually have a higher chance of giving you gold ore.

    • @avoii
      @avoii 3 года назад +9

      yep i thought so

    • @lindatannock
      @lindatannock 3 года назад +2

      I've noticed that too!

  • @G1ngerpocalypse
    @G1ngerpocalypse 3 года назад +50

    Two day’s ago I had a campsite village, Redd, Celeste that evening AND Wisp. I was dying. All on one day.

    • @Washoogy
      @Washoogy Год назад

      If you have 3 stooting stars in a week, celeste will only come on one of those days

  • @ConocybeFilari
    @ConocybeFilari 2 года назад +96

    2:59
    This is Sable erasure
    To any new players: Once you get the able sisters shop, make sure to speak to Sable every time you drop by! Just speaking to her once is enough, and after a certain amount of days she’ll actually start having conversations with you! Hope this is useful information

    • @allique__
      @allique__ 2 года назад +12

      Yeah! I befriended her and she’s actually really sweet

    • @Washoogy
      @Washoogy Год назад +6

      You will also get patterns from her if you talk to her for 4-7 days in a row

  • @peppycrossing2796
    @peppycrossing2796 3 года назад +359

    Ironic that the sequel to this is posted on the day Erik and Ketchup share a birthday- does anyone have them both?? :D

    • @Dagnel
      @Dagnel  3 года назад +76

      Not intended, but fun coincidence!

    • @cemiller
      @cemiller 3 года назад +1

      I have Erik and had ketchup on mystery previous island before I start over

    • @EthanTheGamer77
      @EthanTheGamer77 3 года назад +3

      I have ketchup its her birthday

    • @nin06
      @nin06 3 года назад +3

      I have Ketchup and I was looking for Erik… didn’t know they had the same birthday. At the end of the day Ketchup is adorable and she will never leave my island

    • @phantom9840
      @phantom9840 3 года назад +1

      Nikachu used to have them both at the same time but Ketchup moved away

  • @wysteriousmimic1402
    @wysteriousmimic1402 3 года назад +1253

    Rarest thing that can happen in this game? Simple.
    Getting a huge or even a decent update. That's like a 0.000000000000001% chance to happen.

    • @Dagnel
      @Dagnel  3 года назад +162

      Whatever they announced is coming after the 1.11 update better be good. It's ridiculous at this point.

    • @EthanTheGamer77
      @EthanTheGamer77 3 года назад +64

      what people want: a new fun update with lots of stuff and characters
      What Nintendo thinks people want: HAVING FUN IN JULY

    • @bestinfinity1
      @bestinfinity1 3 года назад +12

      @@Dagnel hey so like it seems like people forgot about keeping secret part of updates

    • @aproudpan-da1990
      @aproudpan-da1990 3 года назад +6

      @@Dagnel true, there is supposed to be another summer update soon

    • @sovic2007
      @sovic2007 3 года назад +1

      LOL

  • @atanvardecunambiel8917
    @atanvardecunambiel8917 2 года назад +8

    With the introduction of Quinn and Tiansheng, and the return of Faith (who is a big sis-type now) and Ace, there are now 26 big sis villagers and 57 jock villagers, bringing the total probability of getting, say, Teddy and Tammy as a starting villager pair to 0.067%. You would have to reset about 1493 times to get a specific pair.

  • @miss_jeannalee_20
    @miss_jeannalee_20 3 года назад +105

    I finally got the rarest combination on my island a couple weeks ago. Got both of my birthday twins on my island, and I didn't even mean to. 🤣 Octavian was auto filled as one of my first 10 last year, and I found Norma while villager hunting for Maple.

    • @Shabbs
      @Shabbs 2 года назад +5

      No offense but.. I read Percy Jackson and the charecter Octavian sucks and now I have a grudge against the villager

    • @miss_jeannalee_20
      @miss_jeannalee_20 2 года назад

      @@Shabbs oh no.. that's next on my list of series to read. Is my poor Octavian about to be ruined for me? 😭

    • @thesprawlingdentisteffigy
      @thesprawlingdentisteffigy Год назад +1

      @@Shabbs oh god ive now made that connection in my brain and i want to cry, octavian was the one cranky villager i wanted, send help

  • @joshuagrahambrown
    @joshuagrahambrown 2 года назад +26

    For the first few months, it was guaranteed that Leif, Kicks & Saharah would visit every week leaving only two slots for other Villagers. I tracked my daily visitors for a while & at one point it had been *eight weeks* since Flick had last visited my island (I believe the “Leif, Kicks & Saharah” routine changed some time around June/July 2020, at least according to my list).

  • @carsondarnell9130
    @carsondarnell9130 2 года назад +49

    I wanna see the stupid rare chance of having a perfect island (aka: the fruit, flower, layout, and villagers you want)

    • @ivorydoves
      @ivorydoves 2 года назад +1

      I’m not doing the math but I’m pretty sure that’s one of the rarest things in the game to happen. Like ever.

    • @Starnet234
      @Starnet234 2 года назад +6

      there is a 0.000000144375% chance of that happening if my math is correct, all you have to do is multiply the percents shown in the video together (and it has to be a percent on the calculator) if you want to know anything else similar to this in this video or the previous video, just do this!

    • @Starnet234
      @Starnet234 2 года назад +4

      this is also not including the specific airport, pier, secret beach, and peninsula locations, or specific airport color chances

    • @carsondarnell9130
      @carsondarnell9130 2 года назад

      Wow that is an 8nsane chance, thanks for the info!

    • @thesprawlingdentisteffigy
      @thesprawlingdentisteffigy Год назад +1

      lmao i want apples, hyacinths, the island with the heart shaped pond, and my starters to be dom and pashmina

  • @DragonTamerLeilah
    @DragonTamerLeilah 3 года назад +94

    I always bury 10k bells in the money spots but one time I got 3 99k bags instead! I know I didn't accidentally bury that amount either because I always reset if I bury the wrong amount.

    • @tmttlwatpwtd
      @tmttlwatpwtd 3 года назад +9

      also, it doesn’t matter if you bury a ton, the amount of bells you can get from one bag on a bell tree caps at 10k. i learned this the hard way by accidentally burying 31k one time lokt

    • @tmttlwatpwtd
      @tmttlwatpwtd 3 года назад +1

      lol*

    • @milkflys
      @milkflys 3 года назад +25

      @@tmttlwatpwtd did you not watch the video? he explains there's actually a 70% chance of the tree capping at 10k. 30% of the time it doesn't.

    • @tmttlwatpwtd
      @tmttlwatpwtd 3 года назад +6

      @@milkflys i was going to correct myself but i couldn’t find my comment. it was a simple mistake, chill dude.

    • @juniper5604
      @juniper5604 2 года назад

      you can only get up to 90k on one tree I believe, this was in new horizons?

  • @Topbeehler
    @Topbeehler 2 года назад +13

    These videos keep making me think up a lot of questions for the game. What is the rarest item for example? The most useful, and useless resources for building? What is the rarest fish or bug, and what is the best and worse things that can happen in game? I hope these questions get answered one day and many more

  • @leedlemylee
    @leedlemylee 3 года назад +44

    Wait. I thought Celeste shows up whether there's shooting stars or not? I've definitely had Celeste on my island without shooting stars...

    • @armintargaryen9216
      @armintargaryen9216 2 года назад +15

      There must have been. The thing is that there are two kinds of nights with shooting stars:
      -the ones when shooting stars may spawn (as well as Celeste), but not necesarily often
      -proper meteor showers, when shooting stars spawn non-stop and Celeste is guarranteed. If there isn't any other news, Isabelle will make an announcement about it, and villagers may comment on it too
      So it is perfectly possible that you saw Celeste in a night with like, four shooting stars per hour (I'm making up the numbers), but they are still there in case you want to farm the zodiac fragments. She will show up no more than once a week when you get shooting stars and, if you get them twice in a week, when you get the heavier shower. The showers happening depends also on the season and some other stats.

    • @seungmivy1082
      @seungmivy1082 2 года назад +3

      @@armintargaryen9216 I have gotten a proper shooting star night because isabelle announced it and the villagers talked about it, but celeste wasnt anywhere on my island. Did I look wrong or is this actually possible?

    • @papayapineapple3645
      @papayapineapple3645 2 года назад

      @@seungmivy1082 this is definitely possible since it happened to me too

  • @Dagnel
    @Dagnel  3 года назад +30

    Part 1: ruclips.net/video/KBAgEh3Ur_M/видео.html
    Follow on Twitch! twitch.tv/Dagnel
    Edit: I've learned that I made a mistake in calculating the starting villager combinations. While there have been 75 total jock villagers in Animal Crossing, only 55 are in New Horizons. This changes the odds of a specific combination to 0.075%. Thanks to user Quiverson for pointing out this error.

  • @danielblumowski34
    @danielblumowski34 2 года назад +43

    I've been colecting data from rocks for like almost 300 days now (please don't ask why), it seems like the probabilities for each material (for today) are as follows:
    rocks - 49.42%
    iron - 34.67%
    clay - 15.19%
    gold - 0.72%
    Even after so many days they vary by a significant amount. For example these are the values from two weeks ago: 49.36%, 34.79%, 15.13%, 0.71%. I have no idea what the programmed values are, i had my guesses, but the experimental values always diverged from them over time. For now I believe it could be like: 49.5%, 34.5%, 15.25% and 0.75%, but i have no proof for that apart from what I've calculated and what seems natural to me.

  • @Businessman_Justin
    @Businessman_Justin 3 года назад +62

    This is what they call "quality content"

  • @phyllojoe5346
    @phyllojoe5346 3 года назад +34

    Also you have a kid cat plate on your wall!? That's so cool!

    • @Dagnel
      @Dagnel  3 года назад +8

      It's a Kid Cat stitch someone made for me!

    • @phyllojoe5346
      @phyllojoe5346 3 года назад +2

      @@Dagnel What a treasure!

  • @FinkipGirl
    @FinkipGirl 3 года назад +128

    I got a suggestion, although not rare, but what are the odds of lost items happening or sick villagers happening? I’ve never heard about that discussed.

    • @marianarosenthal1582
      @marianarosenthal1582 2 года назад +1

      I got them both recently

    • @guacbird
      @guacbird 2 года назад +4

      i really like your whisper profile picture

    • @magentasky234
      @magentasky234 2 года назад +8

      I've just had 3 lost items within a week. I had a bag last Saturday, a book yesterday, and another book today.

    • @kaitomybeloved3126
      @kaitomybeloved3126 2 года назад +4

      To those replying to this comment: this person knows the events are common, they want to know the odds.

  • @alanacarroll2989
    @alanacarroll2989 3 года назад +65

    The rarest event is Nintendo actually giving a good update with the other half of the game they neglected to include...

  • @fellowhomosapien9830
    @fellowhomosapien9830 3 года назад +35

    YAYYY on your last video i commented about me getting two specific villagers as starters (i got roald and cherry) and it’s in the video!!! that was basically the only rare thing that happened to me lol (besides weather stuff)

    • @Dagnel
      @Dagnel  3 года назад +5

      Thanks for the idea!

  • @ElTeeger
    @ElTeeger 3 года назад +205

    I appreciate the time it took you into putting this masterpiece together.

    • @Dagnel
      @Dagnel  3 года назад +12

      Thank you!

  • @Skeletoonz
    @Skeletoonz 2 года назад +29

    When I generated my island, it had two south river mouths and the island was sort of evenly split into four chunks, the two river beginnings on the top met at an intersection near the middle of the island, and spilt into two which both ended at the bottom. As far as I can tell, it is not on the graph of islands shown in the video. That makes me officially cooler than literally everyone else.

  • @melikets2060
    @melikets2060 2 года назад +2

    6:02 Southern Hemisphere, Jan 14th, Roses

  • @drewheld9297
    @drewheld9297 2 года назад +7

    My highest turnip price ever was 657. I knew that the chances of that were small, but I didn’t know they were THIS small

    • @killercore007
      @killercore007 2 года назад +2

      Lowest I've gotten was 32. Yes, 32.

  • @niqchus
    @niqchus 3 года назад +54

    Tbh i found it odd how i have had Redd last tuesday and gonna have tomorrow too??? (I time travel occationally, bc i am rebuilding my island)

    • @jamiegreenberg8476
      @jamiegreenberg8476 3 года назад +5

      ill be lucky if i get him at all and he always brings the same like 2 things I hate it I NEVER get statues

    • @avoii
      @avoii 3 года назад +2

      that’s odd, i think there are 9 npcs that rotate in a cycle? for example this nine days u could have (in order) leif, kicks, cj, redd, saharah, gulliver, flick, gullivarr, and label. (excluding daisy mae and kk) which means you cant have the same within the nine day cycle. (i’m not sure abt this part, i’m not a expert.) however, i think it could be possible that redd is last on ur cycle of 9 days and the beginning in the next 9 days
      edit: oh no i just watched thru the vid but the game does count time traveling backwards as a new day so idk?

    • @niqchus
      @niqchus 3 года назад +1

      @@jamiegreenberg8476 for me it's pretty much 3 same paintings and random likely fake one :D

    • @niqchus
      @niqchus 3 года назад +1

      @@avoii that makes sense tho. :0

  • @FlamesOfTheRuined
    @FlamesOfTheRuined 2 года назад +5

    I’ve got a few ideas:
    1. The chance of getting the Master Angler achievement (fishing 100 fish in a row without fail), but by catching the same exact fish each time.
    2. The chance all 3 items Timmy and Tommy have at the back of the shop would be the same color.
    3. The chance of encountering a sick villager at home and a villager with a flea infestation (not at the same time, just how often it will occur for either).

    • @XxRoseBudsAJPWxX
      @XxRoseBudsAJPWxX 2 года назад

      im sorry... FLEAS? 😳

    • @FlamesOfTheRuined
      @FlamesOfTheRuined 2 года назад

      @@XxRoseBudsAJPWxX yep. Didn’t you know that various villagers can have a flea infestation?

  • @katw9858
    @katw9858 2 года назад +2

    8:21 i loved the little police sound ;) overall a very nice video! That's Quality content :D

  • @vacantile
    @vacantile 2 года назад +14

    I got the same exact island layout as my old island after resetting and re-rolling the layouts just 3 times. The rivers, residential service location, and airport location and color were all the same. I lucked out.

  • @bourbonbiscuits8729
    @bourbonbiscuits8729 2 года назад +4

    seeing that turnip trader makes me want to get he game just cause how CUTE they are

  • @kabumek
    @kabumek 2 года назад +2

    4:50 - peaches and roses on my very first town, exactly what i'd desired. i win 😂

  • @TheWjoa
    @TheWjoa 3 года назад +19

    its easier to find gold on mystery islands than on your island

  • @mil87_
    @mil87_ 3 года назад +5

    Those turnip prices really are the shiny Pokemon of Animal Crossing

    • @JYASOYT
      @JYASOYT 3 года назад

      Shiny Hunting but I'm hunting for specific numbers and I'm not shiny hunting

    • @mil87_
      @mil87_ 3 года назад

      @@JYASOYT precisely

  • @IceAngelGaming
    @IceAngelGaming 2 года назад +8

    So far, for me. I got a campsite villager the day one of my villagers was packing her stuff. The campsite villager picked my moving villager, and I was so glad. I barely had any nook mile tickets to go hunting for a decent or good villager.

  • @Aldanaonair
    @Aldanaonair 2 года назад +2

    I started playing ACNH ever since it was released. Renée (the rhino) and Buck were my starter villagers. At first, I thought Buck was ugly and Renée wasn't really my type. Later on, Renée left my island but Buck was still there, and honestly that happened around the time where I started to appreciate both of them. I actually had lots of pretty cute and beautiful villagers on my island, but non of them were my dream villagers. Now, I have all my dreamies, except Judy, and I'm not in a hurry to get her, Buck is still in my island and I'm planning to stick to him for the longest time possible.

  • @no_na_nina
    @no_na_nina 2 года назад +1

    Omg, that lil' sirens sound with the 1312 drops haha 😂

  • @captainchris2
    @captainchris2 3 года назад +11

    KK can visit on Sundays it there is an event in the plaza the day before

  • @Mega11683
    @Mega11683 2 года назад +8

    I always bury 30k bells. I'll either get the same amount back in a few days or a profit of 60k. Of course 20k would be far more reliable but 3 is an honorary even number like 5, with 2 being an honorary odd number.

  • @chelseabradley6205
    @chelseabradley6205 2 года назад +8

    I have been playing for three weeks. During my second week I walked by the largest fish shadow I had ever seen. I got the fish and it was a celocath.

  • @Mysteri0usPuppet
    @Mysteri0usPuppet Год назад +5

    I just looked and realized I was able to find my exact island layout on that chart! I noticed where the peninsula was, where the dock was, the two river mouths, and my resident services! I would love to know if maybe people even had that same layout as me to see how creative we got with it (By the way I absolutely hate where my Peninsula is, it’s like never gonna get used lmao)

  • @Hershewed
    @Hershewed 3 года назад +6

    2:40 I immediately recognized my island layout here (it’s the 6th one on the South River mouth list, with the dong shaped lake on the third level of elevation) 😂

  • @moonbased7796
    @moonbased7796 3 года назад +6

    2:55
    Well KK is a weird case (sort of) and let me explain:
    Although yes, he does show up to your island every Saturday but you have to at least have 3 stars on your island and he would come to your island to play the intro song of the game (which is called “Welcome Horizons”) and there is a few instances where he won’t show up on Saturdays if either another NPC shows up at the plaza and there is no way the KK can preform or if there is a Fishing Tourney or Bug Competition that day and if either of those was the case then the day after (being Sunday) is when he shows up.

    • @jazz5842
      @jazz5842 2 года назад

      He sometimes comes on Friday for me

    • @Washoogy
      @Washoogy Год назад

      Theres no rotating npc’s on saturdays

  • @crossingseason
    @crossingseason 3 года назад +16

    Some suggestions for another installment could be calculating the chances for a certain clothing item/set being sold at Able Sisters. Or calculating the chances of a certain furniture color variation(s) being at your Nook's Cranny or Redd.

  • @lillyrain354
    @lillyrain354 2 года назад +2

    I actually did the flower thing so my starting flowers were Lillies(cause my birthday I think) and the flowers in season were Roses or Hyacinths

  • @softlystab814
    @softlystab814 2 года назад +33

    Okay yall, hear me out. It might just be a placebo effect but I have found that if I am carrying gold nuggets in my inventory (I normally carry all materials for crafting) I strike wayyyy more gold than when I'm not carrying gold.

    • @pumkin610
      @pumkin610 2 года назад +5

      Further research needs to be done on this right now lol

    • @Starnet234
      @Starnet234 2 года назад +1

      one month later

  • @mckennanoakes3410
    @mckennanoakes3410 3 года назад +3

    THE LITTLE ACAB EASTER EGG HAD ME DEAD

  • @Fadzi2342
    @Fadzi2342 3 года назад +3

    I've been getting Redd every week for the past four weeks now. This has never happened before in my time playing every day since ACNH release.

  • @TroyVan6654
    @TroyVan6654 2 года назад +2

    4:10 Um, actually, it's not as simple as "on average every 14 days", because it's actually once every 9 weekdays, not exactly 2 weeks. Remember, there's always someone visiting in back-to-back weeks, so the average frequency must be more frequent than every 2 weeks. The probability of seeing a specific visitor in the 9-animal rotation on a random day is 5/7 (must be a weekday) * 1/9 = 7.94%.
    7:12 1%, says the Companion Guide. Same probability on your own island as on a mystery island. Compatible with the data shown at 8:17 of 16 drops in 1312 chances (p-value = .403).
    11:16 Um, actually, there are *21* possible buy prices and *441* possible sell prices, because both ends of each range are possible. (Try counting from 90 to 110 inclusive; there are 21 numbers total). So the correct probability is .0027%.

    • @wybs6729
      @wybs6729 2 года назад

      is there anyway to dumb this down?

  • @psyduckrules
    @psyduckrules 3 года назад +4

    The best amount to burry is 30000.
    If you don’t triple it, you get the exact same amount back.
    So you possibly make 90000 with literally no risk.

  • @Sweetest_Red
    @Sweetest_Red 2 года назад +5

    For the 30 percent one, just bury 30k bells, that way you get you’re money back if you don’t hit the 30%, but if you do hit it, you get more money.

    • @chrisanerton
      @chrisanerton 2 года назад +4

      No that would still put you at a net loss theoretically, unless you're just extremely lucky with your dice rolls

    • @ChelsieHx
      @ChelsieHx 2 года назад +1

      bury 30k but in 3 lots of 10k

  • @kayk.5175
    @kayk.5175 2 года назад +1

    Imagine wanting to do math for a game that’s supposed to make you happy, this is what makes your content special lmao

  • @genehayes
    @genehayes 2 года назад +17

    My wife and I both had the exact same starter villagers and island fruit (separate switches and games). I wonder what those odds were...

  • @izzyrodgers05
    @izzyrodgers05 2 года назад +7

    When I first started playing I didnt know about the bell system of burying bells, and I buried 99,000 bells (I wasnt rich either) and for the first 2 times I did it I got 3 times the amount but I remember being devastated when I only got 30,000

  • @doritobandito_1323
    @doritobandito_1323 2 года назад +5

    I actually have an island layout that wasn't on the list! I have an east river layout with a natural star-shaped pond above resident services

  • @callme_dinoVODS8291
    @callme_dinoVODS8291 3 года назад +5

    Why is this so entertaining-

  • @ssshrooms9372
    @ssshrooms9372 2 года назад +7

    I never knew Celeste only appeared when there is shooting stars I’ve seen her about 3-4 times and I’ve always struggled with stars now I’m mildly upset that I missed out :(

  • @Nexility
    @Nexility 3 года назад +24

    I happen to share my birthday with 2 villagers, one of which is on my island. :)

    • @iamjohnporter67
      @iamjohnporter67 3 года назад +1

      My birthday is on the 13th of October and I got Chops as my first campsite villager. FML.....

    • @nin06
      @nin06 3 года назад +2

      I share a birthday with Maddie🙂 on the other hand my sister shares a birthday with Jingle… FREAKIN JINGLE

    • @annatj
      @annatj 3 года назад

      I share my birthday with O'Hare & Rex :)

    • @nin06
      @nin06 3 года назад +1

      @@annatj Belated happy birthday then🥳 I kicked O’Hare out the day after his birthday with a tiny bit of time travelling 😅

    • @annatj
      @annatj 3 года назад

      @@nin06 Thank youuu🥰 Poor O'Hare but at least he got to celebrate his birthday on your island before getting kicked out😂

  • @rhysegozun
    @rhysegozun 3 года назад +4

    As someone who's also working on a computer for 8 hours a day 5 times a week, Definetely can relate to eyestrain. All my screens (phone included) have a heavy orange tint and have brightness and contrast set to 0 😅

  • @cloudyvulpine
    @cloudyvulpine 2 года назад

    9:20 funny thing, i was watching this and saw the bottom right one and thought "hey that kinda looks like my island". then i looked closer and realized it IS my island. i chose it since i loved resident services lining up with the docks lol

  • @user-tx6bc4sq8b
    @user-tx6bc4sq8b 2 года назад +1

    Ok but like
    The piggy selling and buying turnips is just adorable as frick

  • @brickbot2.038
    @brickbot2.038 3 года назад +4

    Hey! Our starting villagers were Plucky and Antonio! I can't believe the odds of them being demonstration for this video...

  • @minskullz
    @minskullz 3 года назад +41

    the rarest thing is probably catching a large shadow fish and turns out to be a gold fish

    • @shahidabegumhousewife9426
      @shahidabegumhousewife9426 2 года назад +1

      For a second I thought you ment a whale and then I remembered that was just a dream and shadows the size of whales dont exist

    • @Fearyfursday
      @Fearyfursday 2 года назад

      I thought I saw one while diving and I got scared lol

  • @urfavavey
    @urfavavey 3 года назад +2

    i was on a froggycrossing stream a while ago and someone lied and said they got tangy as one of their starters but tangy is a peppy 💀😭

  • @gyaradosparty2565
    @gyaradosparty2565 2 года назад

    This was such a fun video to watch while tediously resetting my island for the right combination of map layout/fruit/airport color/dock size. Thank you.

  • @phyllojoe5346
    @phyllojoe5346 3 года назад +10

    I felt VERY uncomfortable seeing you from the opposite side after all the streams
    Also entertaining video!

  • @casuallyartsy5538
    @casuallyartsy5538 2 года назад +3

    oh my gosh you started talking about the chance of getting a specific starting villager combination, and i look up to see the same ones i had!

  • @freepepsicola
    @freepepsicola 3 года назад +2

    Plucky and Antonio were my starters this time around- what's the odds on that?! I gasped when I saw that part of the video.

    • @brickbot2.038
      @brickbot2.038 3 года назад +1

      They were my starters too! (I've never reset the island)

  • @AussieBahstard
    @AussieBahstard 2 года назад +3

    10:32 I got way too excited when I saw this, Plucky and Antonio were my first villagers on New Horizons I still have Plucky but I’ve moved Antonia out what I mildly regret because I miss him.

    • @nurafahz8096
      @nurafahz8096 2 года назад

      Antonio was one of my starters and I still have him and love him so much :D

    • @nightskyshowers
      @nightskyshowers 2 года назад +1

      I got Plucky and Moose, I Don't miss her

  • @ratbrain6991
    @ratbrain6991 3 года назад +4

    Alright, @8:23 that got me pretty good, can’t stop giggling to myself thank u for the pick me up ☺️

    • @Dagnel
      @Dagnel  3 года назад

      Happy to help cheer you up!

  • @Wolfinityy
    @Wolfinityy 3 года назад +5

    I actually had Kid the Cat as my starter villager! I got a different version of him tho so I could have his original interior

  • @damientheincin
    @damientheincin 2 года назад +3

    One thing he forgot: you’re more likely to get gold from a mystery island rock than a rock on your island.

  • @BizVlogs
    @BizVlogs 2 года назад +1

    4:08 “he’ll show up on 7.14% of days. Feel free to debate me on this”
    Each of the 9 NPCs have an equal chance of spawning AFAIK. So even when factoring in the chance they might show up two weeks in a row, and the fact they can’t spawn multiple times a week, it’s doesn’t change the fact that they all have equal probability.
    They all go by the same spawning rules so 100% must be split evenly among them. So each one will show up on 11.11% of weekdays, or 1/9. Weekdays make up 71.43% of total days, so multiplying those two numbers we get that Redd will show up on 7.94% of all days.

  • @itsmechara0426
    @itsmechara0426 3 года назад +16

    The rarest event that can possibly occur is the game updating

  • @tsukiminrai5880
    @tsukiminrai5880 2 года назад +3

    In regards to rotating characters, I think my GF's game was broken then! Because she would get Flick about 4-6 times in a 2 week period when she was hunting for Redd. About 35ish days later he finally shows up once, and Flick had about 15-20ish appearances in that time.. She now hates the character ^^; Lief was about 3 of those days, Kicks and Sahara none, Labelle 1, CJ 5 or 6, and Gulliver/Gulivarr twice.. Or one each... Cant recall ^^;

  • @kalreviews
    @kalreviews 2 года назад +1

    I had Lymen and Plucky as starting villagers... That was a shock when I saw their birthdays 🤣

  • @erickern8314
    @erickern8314 2 года назад +1

    When I started my Island I ended up getting Sprocket and Rocket, which obviously rhyme, but also have the number 4 on their design, I just find it funny

  • @amflippy1134
    @amflippy1134 3 года назад +7

    I thought they just patched the money tree as I used to get three 99k whenever I buried 99k there. Now I just get 1k everytime with any amount buried. I also thought it was because i moved it from where it spawned. Good to know it's actually just by chance.

  • @TheOriginalItsCake
    @TheOriginalItsCake 2 года назад +7

    "That means that getting your specific island layout was a 1.05."
    Me who got the island I wanted on the first attempt and my dream fruit: Well yes, but actually no.

  • @soap6264
    @soap6264 2 года назад +1

    1:20 put it 20,000 bells then if you don't get 3 bags of 20 you still make 10k profit

  • @melsnymphologyy
    @melsnymphologyy 3 года назад +1

    DUDE I WAS CHIL WATCHINNG THE VID WHEN YOU MENTIONED YOUR STARTED VILLAGERS. WE HAVE THE SAME EXACT ONES. NO CAP.

  • @HicusaHyuga
    @HicusaHyuga 3 года назад +7

    i got Redd two days in a row once lol

  • @marshallhorton7154
    @marshallhorton7154 2 года назад +3

    I had turnips and weed selling in the same day, I think it has a 0.0000000001569251% chance of happening.

  • @MAMDOOH75
    @MAMDOOH75 2 года назад +1

    The rarest thing that can happen in animal crossing is Timmy and Tommy not being scammers.

  • @Landmasters
    @Landmasters 5 месяцев назад

    I'd propose a five part series to weigh the chances of getting a world record pace in the games (Pay off mortgage, 100%, etc).
    What turnip prices need to land, what item spawns need to land, what weather, so forth

  • @mauradove
    @mauradove 2 года назад +3

    i think i just got tricked into learning math

  • @Milky_Way5559
    @Milky_Way5559 2 года назад +6

    Here's a question, my first villager from the campsite was Raymond and he's is EXTREMELY rare, what is the possibility of that happening?

    • @softreyna
      @softreyna 2 года назад +6

      There's a 1/36 chance of the first campsite villager being Raymond, since they're guaranteed to be a smug and there's 36 smugs. Raymond doesn't have any special rarity status in-game aside from specific cats being the rarest villagers from mystery islands like Dagnel talks about in part 1, but he's rare on trading sites because he didn't have an amiibo card available until recently and he's in very high demand.

  • @twinbornmoon6927
    @twinbornmoon6927 2 года назад +1

    I’ve never seen the camel
    5:14 shit wtf that’s my birthday

  • @smashbrosguyt915
    @smashbrosguyt915 2 года назад

    The rarest thing ever is actually finding an island open when searching for one and actually mustering up the courage to go to it.