When I was starting to play Animal Crossing, I swear I dug up a golden hole with 5,000 bells. I have never seen it ever again and haven't heard news about anyone else getting it. I didn't take a screenshot either because I didn't know it was rare at the time. I am now starting to wonder if it ever really happened :')
I actually graphed the turnip prices in Nooks Cranny for a while (for at least a few months i think) just for fun. And I found that to reach an EXTREMELY high selling price (500+ bells) happens about every 3 ish months. Ofc, this only counts the data through my Nooks Cranny, so it could different throughout everyone's islands. Also, if anyone wanted to know, turnip prices tend to rise over a course of 3 days, hitting the peak on the middle day, usually in the afternoon. The peak could be as low as the price you bought turnips at and most of the time (according my island prices) the week after your prices hit a high, the next week will be filled with completely low prices. Just thought this was cool to share lol :)
… if you bury 30K every time, you’re still technically losing money. if for every 10K you bury, you’re guaranteed to make 30K, you’re still losing the opportunity to make 90K for every 30K you bury instead of 10K (over the course of three days) and don’t get lucky (making 90K from one tree). this is of course with the assumption that planting 30K is a lot for some players who aren’t multi-bellionaires
@@micahedgehill494 To elaborate. You have a guranteed 20K profit with 10k bells. But, if you bury 30k, you have a 70% chance of gaining a profit of 0 which averages out to be 0 bells. You also have a 30% chance to gain a profit of 60K bells. This really means you have an average of earning only 18K bells if you bury 30k, but of course, you only have the outcomes of 0 or 60k. If you do even more math, I've worked out that if you get 2 or less days where you triple, you effectively lose money. However, three or more, and you gain money. I dont quite know how to work out specific percentages, but I do know that having a profit of 120k is most likely, resulting in a net loss of 20k because you couldve gained 140k.
To anyone who wants to figure out the exact stats, you just have to figure out how many permutations fit into every combo of profitable and neutral days and then do some compound probability. I just dont know how to find out how many permutations there are of a specific combination, only that there are 8 combinations and 128 permutations.
Ah yes, smacking rocks with a shovel for research. There seems to be nothing you won't do in this game. I don't think there's many people who would go to that extent.
@@queenkatara7861 interesting. i didn’t read thru the whole thing but is there anything abt cliff flowers? i’m born in october and my cliff flowers are mums, which are in season in october. i did start my island this month (i restarted) and mums aren’t available in july
@@avoii So the cliff flowers are your native flowers. The sister flowers that you sometimes see on mystery islands are determined by the month you started your island. So for me, my native is roses as a June baby and I sometimes see pansies on mystery islands as I started my island in the month of April.
I want to share that my starting villagers were Bam & Shari And then I saw that Jacksepticeye also had the exact same starting villager combo Thought I had a special connection with the dude through that 0.055% chance🙏
@@butters6795 All I really know is that you can't donate fakes to the museum. I think some of them do weird things at night but I've never displayed a fake on my island or in my house so I don't really know.
@@butters6795 You’ve already gotten your questions answered but some fake paintings can be haunted or have… dubious things on the back of them. Take that information as you will.
2:59 This is Sable erasure To any new players: Once you get the able sisters shop, make sure to speak to Sable every time you drop by! Just speaking to her once is enough, and after a certain amount of days she’ll actually start having conversations with you! Hope this is useful information
I have Ketchup and I was looking for Erik… didn’t know they had the same birthday. At the end of the day Ketchup is adorable and she will never leave my island
For the first few months, it was guaranteed that Leif, Kicks & Saharah would visit every week leaving only two slots for other Villagers. I tracked my daily visitors for a while & at one point it had been *eight weeks* since Flick had last visited my island (I believe the “Leif, Kicks & Saharah” routine changed some time around June/July 2020, at least according to my list).
I finally got the rarest combination on my island a couple weeks ago. Got both of my birthday twins on my island, and I didn't even mean to. 🤣 Octavian was auto filled as one of my first 10 last year, and I found Norma while villager hunting for Maple.
Part 1: ruclips.net/video/KBAgEh3Ur_M/видео.html Follow on Twitch! twitch.tv/Dagnel Edit: I've learned that I made a mistake in calculating the starting villager combinations. While there have been 75 total jock villagers in Animal Crossing, only 55 are in New Horizons. This changes the odds of a specific combination to 0.075%. Thanks to user Quiverson for pointing out this error.
These videos keep making me think up a lot of questions for the game. What is the rarest item for example? The most useful, and useless resources for building? What is the rarest fish or bug, and what is the best and worse things that can happen in game? I hope these questions get answered one day and many more
With the introduction of Quinn and Tiansheng, and the return of Faith (who is a big sis-type now) and Ace, there are now 26 big sis villagers and 57 jock villagers, bringing the total probability of getting, say, Teddy and Tammy as a starting villager pair to 0.067%. You would have to reset about 1493 times to get a specific pair.
YAYYY on your last video i commented about me getting two specific villagers as starters (i got roald and cherry) and it’s in the video!!! that was basically the only rare thing that happened to me lol (besides weather stuff)
there is a 0.000000144375% chance of that happening if my math is correct, all you have to do is multiply the percents shown in the video together (and it has to be a percent on the calculator) if you want to know anything else similar to this in this video or the previous video, just do this!
I've been colecting data from rocks for like almost 300 days now (please don't ask why), it seems like the probabilities for each material (for today) are as follows: rocks - 49.42% iron - 34.67% clay - 15.19% gold - 0.72% Even after so many days they vary by a significant amount. For example these are the values from two weeks ago: 49.36%, 34.79%, 15.13%, 0.71%. I have no idea what the programmed values are, i had my guesses, but the experimental values always diverged from them over time. For now I believe it could be like: 49.5%, 34.5%, 15.25% and 0.75%, but i have no proof for that apart from what I've calculated and what seems natural to me.
I’ve got a few ideas: 1. The chance of getting the Master Angler achievement (fishing 100 fish in a row without fail), but by catching the same exact fish each time. 2. The chance all 3 items Timmy and Tommy have at the back of the shop would be the same color. 3. The chance of encountering a sick villager at home and a villager with a flea infestation (not at the same time, just how often it will occur for either).
There must have been. The thing is that there are two kinds of nights with shooting stars: -the ones when shooting stars may spawn (as well as Celeste), but not necesarily often -proper meteor showers, when shooting stars spawn non-stop and Celeste is guarranteed. If there isn't any other news, Isabelle will make an announcement about it, and villagers may comment on it too So it is perfectly possible that you saw Celeste in a night with like, four shooting stars per hour (I'm making up the numbers), but they are still there in case you want to farm the zodiac fragments. She will show up no more than once a week when you get shooting stars and, if you get them twice in a week, when you get the heavier shower. The showers happening depends also on the season and some other stats.
@@armintargaryen9216 I have gotten a proper shooting star night because isabelle announced it and the villagers talked about it, but celeste wasnt anywhere on my island. Did I look wrong or is this actually possible?
When I generated my island, it had two south river mouths and the island was sort of evenly split into four chunks, the two river beginnings on the top met at an intersection near the middle of the island, and spilt into two which both ended at the bottom. As far as I can tell, it is not on the graph of islands shown in the video. That makes me officially cooler than literally everyone else.
I got a suggestion, although not rare, but what are the odds of lost items happening or sick villagers happening? I’ve never heard about that discussed.
I got the same exact island layout as my old island after resetting and re-rolling the layouts just 3 times. The rivers, residential service location, and airport location and color were all the same. I lucked out.
So far, for me. I got a campsite villager the day one of my villagers was packing her stuff. The campsite villager picked my moving villager, and I was so glad. I barely had any nook mile tickets to go hunting for a decent or good villager.
2:55 Well KK is a weird case (sort of) and let me explain: Although yes, he does show up to your island every Saturday but you have to at least have 3 stars on your island and he would come to your island to play the intro song of the game (which is called “Welcome Horizons”) and there is a few instances where he won’t show up on Saturdays if either another NPC shows up at the plaza and there is no way the KK can preform or if there is a Fishing Tourney or Bug Competition that day and if either of those was the case then the day after (being Sunday) is when he shows up.
I wasn't aware that you could get more than 10,000 bells from the Bell Trees. I thought they had just permanently changed it from the 90,000 in the older games lol
that’s odd, i think there are 9 npcs that rotate in a cycle? for example this nine days u could have (in order) leif, kicks, cj, redd, saharah, gulliver, flick, gullivarr, and label. (excluding daisy mae and kk) which means you cant have the same within the nine day cycle. (i’m not sure abt this part, i’m not a expert.) however, i think it could be possible that redd is last on ur cycle of 9 days and the beginning in the next 9 days edit: oh no i just watched thru the vid but the game does count time traveling backwards as a new day so idk?
I started playing ACNH ever since it was released. Renée (the rhino) and Buck were my starter villagers. At first, I thought Buck was ugly and Renée wasn't really my type. Later on, Renée left my island but Buck was still there, and honestly that happened around the time where I started to appreciate both of them. I actually had lots of pretty cute and beautiful villagers on my island, but non of them were my dream villagers. Now, I have all my dreamies, except Judy, and I'm not in a hurry to get her, Buck is still in my island and I'm planning to stick to him for the longest time possible.
Okay yall, hear me out. It might just be a placebo effect but I have found that if I am carrying gold nuggets in my inventory (I normally carry all materials for crafting) I strike wayyyy more gold than when I'm not carrying gold.
Rewatched this video six times and only just now noticed the brief police siren when you mentioned hitting 1,312 rocks. Extremely clever and made me choke on yogurt this past watch.
According to animal crossing fandom your native flower is based on your (the resident representative's) birth month and the sister flower is based on when you start playing but Hemisphere might still be a factor so for reference : Sothern Hemisphere island. Birth month March. Start month June. I ended up with lilies as my native flower and mums as my sister flower.
Just rewatched this video. Realized when he was talking about island generation, he showed my EXACT 1 to 1 starter island when he was generating islands himself
2:40 I immediately recognized my island layout here (it’s the 6th one on the South River mouth list, with the dong shaped lake on the third level of elevation) 😂
wanna talk about low chances? this past weekend i asked kk to play whatever song he wanted, and he played kk country. THEN i asked him again and he played..... kk country again? i guess he just really wanted me to appreciate the song more
I'm a dumb turnip so i'm prolly wrong but maybe heavy shooting stars can happen multiple times in a row? If so than that would probably be real rare :D
I just looked and realized I was able to find my exact island layout on that chart! I noticed where the peninsula was, where the dock was, the two river mouths, and my resident services! I would love to know if maybe people even had that same layout as me to see how creative we got with it (By the way I absolutely hate where my Peninsula is, it’s like never gonna get used lmao)
With money trees, I always bury 30,000 bells because then there’s a chance for 3 bags of that amount. If you don’t get the 3 backs of 30,000, you still get that amount worth back anyway
Some suggestions for another installment could be calculating the chances for a certain clothing item/set being sold at Able Sisters. Or calculating the chances of a certain furniture color variation(s) being at your Nook's Cranny or Redd.
I’d argue that 11,000 is the safest bet for bell trees since there’s no real loss if it doesn’t take and it’s still big profit if it does. So for full profits: 10,000 for 20,000 gain. Risk: 11,000-29,999 partial gains all failed 30,000+ buries will be loss.
10:32 I got way too excited when I saw this, Plucky and Antonio were my first villagers on New Horizons I still have Plucky but I’ve moved Antonia out what I mildly regret because I miss him.
I always bury 30k bells. I'll either get the same amount back in a few days or a profit of 60k. Of course 20k would be far more reliable but 3 is an honorary even number like 5, with 2 being an honorary odd number.
9:20 funny thing, i was watching this and saw the bottom right one and thought "hey that kinda looks like my island". then i looked closer and realized it IS my island. i chose it since i loved resident services lining up with the docks lol
I never knew Celeste only appeared when there is shooting stars I’ve seen her about 3-4 times and I’ve always struggled with stars now I’m mildly upset that I missed out :(
The animal crossing guide book does state that there is a 1% chance on home island and mystery island of getting gold nuggets but blue bloons have an 8% chance at gold nuggets
In Animal Crossing, there are 23 Uchi (or "Big Sister" if you're uncultured), and 76 Jock characters. If you keep resetting your island, there's a 0.057208238% chance that you'll get your preferred Uchi/Jock combination. Now, what if you want to get your preferred starter animals AND Fruit/Flower combinations? Using Dagnel's math of 2.5% for the flowers and fruit, there's a 0.143020595% chance of getting your favorite uchi, jock, flower and native fruit....I really hope I did that math right.
As someone who's also working on a computer for 8 hours a day 5 times a week, Definetely can relate to eyestrain. All my screens (phone included) have a heavy orange tint and have brightness and contrast set to 0 😅
This was such a fun video to watch while tediously resetting my island for the right combination of map layout/fruit/airport color/dock size. Thank you.
One time I needed the emergency service and it wasn’t resetti answering, it was DON. It had different lines, voice, EVERYTHING! it never happened again, but my friends didn’t believe me at all when I told them. It said resetti was on a vacation
When I first started playing I didnt know about the bell system of burying bells, and I buried 99,000 bells (I wasnt rich either) and for the first 2 times I did it I got 3 times the amount but I remember being devastated when I only got 30,000
to add to your specific fruit and flower combo you can also factor in the nook miles ticket random flower and fruit (1 of each per island on every ticket island, these odds could get worse with kappn)
It's not a guarantee to get a visitor who didn't visit the previous week. If Saturday has a special event, KK will take up the Friday slot. If you have a birthday, KK will take up the slot on the day of your birthday. If you have a birthday that week and also a special event on Saturday, KK will take up two slots, so you'll get only 3 visitors that week. I really really hate KK.
actually heres something abt the first event mentioned ; each island has a specific day where if you plant more than 10k, you'll get the same (x3) amount you planted mine for example was either wednesday or thursday, i remember i had signs for it and everything trying to figure out which day guaranteed more than the usual 30k bells although it is possible for your island to have more than 1 day where you can plant and get back more than 10k. its a bit time consuming, but its worth it IMO
![Felix "Unfair" | [Stray Kids : SKZ-PLAYER]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/Oswujxm2Ag0/mqdefault.jpg)
What about the chance of Timmy and Tommy actually selling the items you want for your decorations
0.00000000000001
LOOL it took me like 3 months to get my cranny to sell a simple panel
Or the gold hole being in a spot where a tree would actually look nice
@@totodile987 YES
Oh then I must have the best island because I always think I like everything
The rarest event that can possibly occur is Isabelle actually having useful announcements.
Dangggg, why you gotta do Isabelle like that
Isabelle’s TV habits are super important!
Hahahaha this!
Isabelle is so useless in this game. Don't try to defend her.
@@pembrokelove yea that means she has time off when we turn off the game or get out of the resident services
When I was starting to play Animal Crossing, I swear I dug up a golden hole with 5,000 bells. I have never seen it ever again and haven't heard news about anyone else getting it. I didn't take a screenshot either because I didn't know it was rare at the time. I am now starting to wonder if it ever really happened :')
Possibly... I've never seen it personally though!
It has happened to me before but I never got a picture
There is such a Spot every day once!
Same I think
They removed to maybe
the rarest event is getting a actually good villager in your campsite.
I got Marshal and Julian from my campsite but didn't take Julian or I wouldn't have been able to get Marshal.
yeah ive gotten okay ones, but its hard to get a good villager
I got 2 gorilas in a row once-
I've also had Zell, sadly got rid of him for lily
@@Chad_sprout ugh lucky lily is the best phroggg
I actually graphed the turnip prices in Nooks Cranny for a while (for at least a few months i think) just for fun. And I found that to reach an EXTREMELY high selling price (500+ bells) happens about every 3 ish months. Ofc, this only counts the data through my Nooks Cranny, so it could different throughout everyone's islands. Also, if anyone wanted to know, turnip prices tend to rise over a course of 3 days, hitting the peak on the middle day, usually in the afternoon. The peak could be as low as the price you bought turnips at and most of the time (according my island prices) the week after your prices hit a high, the next week will be filled with completely low prices. Just thought this was cool to share lol :)
Bless your heart for this😂❤
I've always thought that Animal Crossing is such a great way to teach basic statistics and probabilities.
Such a great way to teach basic gambling addiction in my case...
@@Brando2301 "You see! I once got my 99,999 Bell tree to triple once! So it's worth it!"
You could also just bury 30k everytime, 'cause the least you can get back is 3x 10k. If you lucky tho, you'll get 3x 30k. So you basically never lose.
wait- dats true
… if you bury 30K every time, you’re still technically losing money. if for every 10K you bury, you’re guaranteed to make 30K, you’re still losing the opportunity to make 90K for every 30K you bury instead of 10K (over the course of three days) and don’t get lucky (making 90K from one tree). this is of course with the assumption that planting 30K is a lot for some players who aren’t multi-bellionaires
So basically if you bury 30k you will make 30k back put in the form of 3 10k bags and so planting that will result in a loss of potential money?
@@micahedgehill494 To elaborate. You have a guranteed 20K profit with 10k bells. But, if you bury 30k, you have a 70% chance of gaining a profit of 0 which averages out to be 0 bells. You also have a 30% chance to gain a profit of 60K bells. This really means you have an average of earning only 18K bells if you bury 30k, but of course, you only have the outcomes of 0 or 60k. If you do even more math, I've worked out that if you get 2 or less days where you triple, you effectively lose money. However, three or more, and you gain money. I dont quite know how to work out specific percentages, but I do know that having a profit of 120k is most likely, resulting in a net loss of 20k because you couldve gained 140k.
To anyone who wants to figure out the exact stats, you just have to figure out how many permutations fit into every combo of profitable and neutral days and then do some compound probability. I just dont know how to find out how many permutations there are of a specific combination, only that there are 8 combinations and 128 permutations.
Ah yes, smacking rocks with a shovel for research. There seems to be nothing you won't do in this game. I don't think there's many people who would go to that extent.
thank you hall of fame Jets quarterback Joesph Namath, very honored!
I don't know if he is real
@@ChristSavez woooo, wily?
Ok but am I the only one really interested the factors affecting the native flower of your island now 😂😂 never knew that
Yeah, I'd like to see how it works exactly!
nope ur not the only one🤣
@@queenkatara7861 interesting. i didn’t read thru the whole thing but is there anything abt cliff flowers? i’m born in october and my cliff flowers are mums, which are in season in october. i did start my island this month (i restarted) and mums aren’t available in july
@@avoii So the cliff flowers are your native flowers. The sister flowers that you sometimes see on mystery islands are determined by the month you started your island. So for me, my native is roses as a June baby and I sometimes see pansies on mystery islands as I started my island in the month of April.
Omg, I see u on froggy crossings videos so muchh
My starting villagers were Sprocket and Rocket. I think that’s fun.
lol
yoooo I started with Rocket too! I love her!
mine were Sprocket and Mira :)
Mine were Dom and Reneigh
Mine were sprocket and Tammy :]
I want to share that my starting villagers were Bam & Shari
And then I saw that Jacksepticeye also had the exact same starting villager combo
Thought I had a special connection with the dude through that 0.055% chance🙏
I had Bam and Shari too!
SCREW YOU SHARI 🤣
I had Boots and Shari! Boots I love, Shari got booted 🤣
@@angelreilly8312 god I hate Shari too lol
I got Ursula and hamlet-
I watched a video on getting gold, and it turns out that mystery islands actually have a higher chance of giving you gold ore.
yep i thought so
I've noticed that too!
I once had Redd show up three consecutive weeks with all fakes. I don't know what the odds are of that but it wasn't fun.
He's really trying hard to rip you off I guess
what do fakes do?
@@butters6795 All I really know is that you can't donate fakes to the museum. I think some of them do weird things at night but I've never displayed a fake on my island or in my house so I don't really know.
@@chandler2581 ohhh i didn't know he could sell fake art! that's interesting redd is pretty shady tho haha
@@butters6795 You’ve already gotten your questions answered but some fake paintings can be haunted or have… dubious things on the back of them. Take that information as you will.
Dude this guy is so logical that I can hear the intense music playing as he pushes his glasses up and smirks about to blow my mind
And the glasses flash white when he pushes them up
Two day’s ago I had a campsite village, Redd, Celeste that evening AND Wisp. I was dying. All on one day.
If you have 3 stooting stars in a week, celeste will only come on one of those days
2:59
This is Sable erasure
To any new players: Once you get the able sisters shop, make sure to speak to Sable every time you drop by! Just speaking to her once is enough, and after a certain amount of days she’ll actually start having conversations with you! Hope this is useful information
Yeah! I befriended her and she’s actually really sweet
You will also get patterns from her if you talk to her for 4-7 days in a row
Rarest thing that can happen in this game? Simple.
Getting a huge or even a decent update. That's like a 0.000000000000001% chance to happen.
Whatever they announced is coming after the 1.11 update better be good. It's ridiculous at this point.
what people want: a new fun update with lots of stuff and characters
What Nintendo thinks people want: HAVING FUN IN JULY
@@Dagnel hey so like it seems like people forgot about keeping secret part of updates
@@Dagnel true, there is supposed to be another summer update soon
LOL
Ironic that the sequel to this is posted on the day Erik and Ketchup share a birthday- does anyone have them both?? :D
Not intended, but fun coincidence!
I have Erik and had ketchup on mystery previous island before I start over
I have ketchup its her birthday
I have Ketchup and I was looking for Erik… didn’t know they had the same birthday. At the end of the day Ketchup is adorable and she will never leave my island
Nikachu used to have them both at the same time but Ketchup moved away
For the first few months, it was guaranteed that Leif, Kicks & Saharah would visit every week leaving only two slots for other Villagers. I tracked my daily visitors for a while & at one point it had been *eight weeks* since Flick had last visited my island (I believe the “Leif, Kicks & Saharah” routine changed some time around June/July 2020, at least according to my list).
I finally got the rarest combination on my island a couple weeks ago. Got both of my birthday twins on my island, and I didn't even mean to. 🤣 Octavian was auto filled as one of my first 10 last year, and I found Norma while villager hunting for Maple.
No offense but.. I read Percy Jackson and the charecter Octavian sucks and now I have a grudge against the villager
@@Shabbs oh no.. that's next on my list of series to read. Is my poor Octavian about to be ruined for me? 😭
@@Shabbs oh god ive now made that connection in my brain and i want to cry, octavian was the one cranky villager i wanted, send help
Part 1: ruclips.net/video/KBAgEh3Ur_M/видео.html
Follow on Twitch! twitch.tv/Dagnel
Edit: I've learned that I made a mistake in calculating the starting villager combinations. While there have been 75 total jock villagers in Animal Crossing, only 55 are in New Horizons. This changes the odds of a specific combination to 0.075%. Thanks to user Quiverson for pointing out this error.
Ok.
Second reply
Hmm... interesting... time to forget in 3 minutes
this isn't pinned...
These videos keep making me think up a lot of questions for the game. What is the rarest item for example? The most useful, and useless resources for building? What is the rarest fish or bug, and what is the best and worse things that can happen in game? I hope these questions get answered one day and many more
With the introduction of Quinn and Tiansheng, and the return of Faith (who is a big sis-type now) and Ace, there are now 26 big sis villagers and 57 jock villagers, bringing the total probability of getting, say, Teddy and Tammy as a starting villager pair to 0.067%. You would have to reset about 1493 times to get a specific pair.
the siren when he said 1312 lmao
ACAB for the win
YAYYY on your last video i commented about me getting two specific villagers as starters (i got roald and cherry) and it’s in the video!!! that was basically the only rare thing that happened to me lol (besides weather stuff)
Thanks for the idea!
Also you have a kid cat plate on your wall!? That's so cool!
It's a Kid Cat stitch someone made for me!
@@Dagnel What a treasure!
I wanna see the stupid rare chance of having a perfect island (aka: the fruit, flower, layout, and villagers you want)
I’m not doing the math but I’m pretty sure that’s one of the rarest things in the game to happen. Like ever.
there is a 0.000000144375% chance of that happening if my math is correct, all you have to do is multiply the percents shown in the video together (and it has to be a percent on the calculator) if you want to know anything else similar to this in this video or the previous video, just do this!
this is also not including the specific airport, pier, secret beach, and peninsula locations, or specific airport color chances
Wow that is an 8nsane chance, thanks for the info!
lmao i want apples, hyacinths, the island with the heart shaped pond, and my starters to be dom and pashmina
I've been colecting data from rocks for like almost 300 days now (please don't ask why), it seems like the probabilities for each material (for today) are as follows:
rocks - 49.42%
iron - 34.67%
clay - 15.19%
gold - 0.72%
Even after so many days they vary by a significant amount. For example these are the values from two weeks ago: 49.36%, 34.79%, 15.13%, 0.71%. I have no idea what the programmed values are, i had my guesses, but the experimental values always diverged from them over time. For now I believe it could be like: 49.5%, 34.5%, 15.25% and 0.75%, but i have no proof for that apart from what I've calculated and what seems natural to me.
I’ve got a few ideas:
1. The chance of getting the Master Angler achievement (fishing 100 fish in a row without fail), but by catching the same exact fish each time.
2. The chance all 3 items Timmy and Tommy have at the back of the shop would be the same color.
3. The chance of encountering a sick villager at home and a villager with a flea infestation (not at the same time, just how often it will occur for either).
im sorry... FLEAS? 😳
@@XxCupcakeHoarderxX yep. Didn’t you know that various villagers can have a flea infestation?
I appreciate the time it took you into putting this masterpiece together.
Thank you!
Wait. I thought Celeste shows up whether there's shooting stars or not? I've definitely had Celeste on my island without shooting stars...
There must have been. The thing is that there are two kinds of nights with shooting stars:
-the ones when shooting stars may spawn (as well as Celeste), but not necesarily often
-proper meteor showers, when shooting stars spawn non-stop and Celeste is guarranteed. If there isn't any other news, Isabelle will make an announcement about it, and villagers may comment on it too
So it is perfectly possible that you saw Celeste in a night with like, four shooting stars per hour (I'm making up the numbers), but they are still there in case you want to farm the zodiac fragments. She will show up no more than once a week when you get shooting stars and, if you get them twice in a week, when you get the heavier shower. The showers happening depends also on the season and some other stats.
@@armintargaryen9216 I have gotten a proper shooting star night because isabelle announced it and the villagers talked about it, but celeste wasnt anywhere on my island. Did I look wrong or is this actually possible?
@@seungmivy1082 this is definitely possible since it happened to me too
This is what they call "quality content"
The rarest event is Nintendo actually giving a good update with the other half of the game they neglected to include...
are you happy now
When I generated my island, it had two south river mouths and the island was sort of evenly split into four chunks, the two river beginnings on the top met at an intersection near the middle of the island, and spilt into two which both ended at the bottom. As far as I can tell, it is not on the graph of islands shown in the video. That makes me officially cooler than literally everyone else.
I got a suggestion, although not rare, but what are the odds of lost items happening or sick villagers happening? I’ve never heard about that discussed.
I got them both recently
i really like your whisper profile picture
I've just had 3 lost items within a week. I had a bag last Saturday, a book yesterday, and another book today.
To those replying to this comment: this person knows the events are common, they want to know the odds.
My highest turnip price ever was 657. I knew that the chances of that were small, but I didn’t know they were THIS small
Lowest I've gotten was 32. Yes, 32.
I got the same exact island layout as my old island after resetting and re-rolling the layouts just 3 times. The rivers, residential service location, and airport location and color were all the same. I lucked out.
So far, for me. I got a campsite villager the day one of my villagers was packing her stuff. The campsite villager picked my moving villager, and I was so glad. I barely had any nook mile tickets to go hunting for a decent or good villager.
8:21 i loved the little police sound ;) overall a very nice video! That's Quality content :D
2:55
Well KK is a weird case (sort of) and let me explain:
Although yes, he does show up to your island every Saturday but you have to at least have 3 stars on your island and he would come to your island to play the intro song of the game (which is called “Welcome Horizons”) and there is a few instances where he won’t show up on Saturdays if either another NPC shows up at the plaza and there is no way the KK can preform or if there is a Fishing Tourney or Bug Competition that day and if either of those was the case then the day after (being Sunday) is when he shows up.
He sometimes comes on Friday for me
Theres no rotating npc’s on saturdays
I wasn't aware that you could get more than 10,000 bells from the Bell Trees. I thought they had just permanently changed it from the 90,000 in the older games lol
Tbh i found it odd how i have had Redd last tuesday and gonna have tomorrow too??? (I time travel occationally, bc i am rebuilding my island)
ill be lucky if i get him at all and he always brings the same like 2 things I hate it I NEVER get statues
that’s odd, i think there are 9 npcs that rotate in a cycle? for example this nine days u could have (in order) leif, kicks, cj, redd, saharah, gulliver, flick, gullivarr, and label. (excluding daisy mae and kk) which means you cant have the same within the nine day cycle. (i’m not sure abt this part, i’m not a expert.) however, i think it could be possible that redd is last on ur cycle of 9 days and the beginning in the next 9 days
edit: oh no i just watched thru the vid but the game does count time traveling backwards as a new day so idk?
@@jamiesprinkbob for me it's pretty much 3 same paintings and random likely fake one :D
@@avoii that makes sense tho. :0
I started playing ACNH ever since it was released. Renée (the rhino) and Buck were my starter villagers. At first, I thought Buck was ugly and Renée wasn't really my type. Later on, Renée left my island but Buck was still there, and honestly that happened around the time where I started to appreciate both of them. I actually had lots of pretty cute and beautiful villagers on my island, but non of them were my dream villagers. Now, I have all my dreamies, except Judy, and I'm not in a hurry to get her, Buck is still in my island and I'm planning to stick to him for the longest time possible.
Okay yall, hear me out. It might just be a placebo effect but I have found that if I am carrying gold nuggets in my inventory (I normally carry all materials for crafting) I strike wayyyy more gold than when I'm not carrying gold.
Further research needs to be done on this right now lol
one month later
Rewatched this video six times and only just now noticed the brief police siren when you mentioned hitting 1,312 rocks. Extremely clever and made me choke on yogurt this past watch.
seeing that turnip trader makes me want to get he game just cause how CUTE they are
According to animal crossing fandom your native flower is based on your (the resident representative's) birth month and the sister flower is based on when you start playing but Hemisphere might still be a factor so for reference : Sothern Hemisphere island. Birth month March. Start month June. I ended up with lilies as my native flower and mums as my sister flower.
I've been getting Redd every week for the past four weeks now. This has never happened before in my time playing every day since ACNH release.
Just rewatched this video. Realized when he was talking about island generation, he showed my EXACT 1 to 1 starter island when he was generating islands himself
2:40 I immediately recognized my island layout here (it’s the 6th one on the South River mouth list, with the dong shaped lake on the third level of elevation) 😂
2:40? you mean 9:40?
wanna talk about low chances? this past weekend i asked kk to play whatever song he wanted, and he played kk country. THEN i asked him again and he played..... kk country again? i guess he just really wanted me to appreciate the song more
Those turnip prices really are the shiny Pokemon of Animal Crossing
Shiny Hunting but I'm hunting for specific numbers and I'm not shiny hunting
@@JYASOYT precisely
I'm a dumb turnip so i'm prolly wrong but maybe heavy shooting stars can happen multiple times in a row? If so than that would probably be real rare :D
I just looked and realized I was able to find my exact island layout on that chart! I noticed where the peninsula was, where the dock was, the two river mouths, and my resident services! I would love to know if maybe people even had that same layout as me to see how creative we got with it (By the way I absolutely hate where my Peninsula is, it’s like never gonna get used lmao)
With money trees, I always bury 30,000 bells because then there’s a chance for 3 bags of that amount. If you don’t get the 3 backs of 30,000, you still get that amount worth back anyway
I have been playing for three weeks. During my second week I walked by the largest fish shadow I had ever seen. I got the fish and it was a celocath.
nice!
the best amount of bells to bury is 30k as you basically get your money straight back and still have a chance for 90k
Some suggestions for another installment could be calculating the chances for a certain clothing item/set being sold at Able Sisters. Or calculating the chances of a certain furniture color variation(s) being at your Nook's Cranny or Redd.
Nice! I am a math teacher in Germany. You have given me new ideas to use in the classroom to teach probability an statistics. Thank you very much! 🙏
its easier to find gold on mystery islands than on your island
Yea
oh my gosh you started talking about the chance of getting a specific starting villager combination, and i look up to see the same ones i had!
The best amount to burry is 30000.
If you don’t triple it, you get the exact same amount back.
So you possibly make 90000 with literally no risk.
I’d argue that 11,000 is the safest bet for bell trees since there’s no real loss if it doesn’t take and it’s still big profit if it does.
So for full profits: 10,000 for 20,000 gain.
Risk:
11,000-29,999 partial gains
all failed 30,000+ buries will be loss.
For the 30 percent one, just bury 30k bells, that way you get you’re money back if you don’t hit the 30%, but if you do hit it, you get more money.
No that would still put you at a net loss theoretically, unless you're just extremely lucky with your dice rolls
bury 30k but in 3 lots of 10k
Imagine wanting to do math for a game that’s supposed to make you happy, this is what makes your content special lmao
10:32 I got way too excited when I saw this, Plucky and Antonio were my first villagers on New Horizons I still have Plucky but I’ve moved Antonia out what I mildly regret because I miss him.
Antonio was one of my starters and I still have him and love him so much :D
I got Plucky and Moose, I Don't miss her
10:31 those were my exact starting villagers! It’s surreal to see lmaooo
I happen to share my birthday with 2 villagers, one of which is on my island. :)
My birthday is on the 13th of October and I got Chops as my first campsite villager. FML.....
I share a birthday with Maddie🙂 on the other hand my sister shares a birthday with Jingle… FREAKIN JINGLE
I share my birthday with O'Hare & Rex :)
@@annatj Belated happy birthday then🥳 I kicked O’Hare out the day after his birthday with a tiny bit of time travelling 😅
@@nin06 Thank youuu🥰 Poor O'Hare but at least he got to celebrate his birthday on your island before getting kicked out😂
Omg, that lil' sirens sound with the 1312 drops haha 😂
I always bury 30k bells. I'll either get the same amount back in a few days or a profit of 60k. Of course 20k would be far more reliable but 3 is an honorary even number like 5, with 2 being an honorary odd number.
Ok but like
The piggy selling and buying turnips is just adorable as frick
I had turnips and weed selling in the same day, I think it has a 0.0000000001569251% chance of happening.
9:20 funny thing, i was watching this and saw the bottom right one and thought "hey that kinda looks like my island". then i looked closer and realized it IS my island. i chose it since i loved resident services lining up with the docks lol
I never knew Celeste only appeared when there is shooting stars I’ve seen her about 3-4 times and I’ve always struggled with stars now I’m mildly upset that I missed out :(
The rarest thing ever is actually finding an island open when searching for one and actually mustering up the courage to go to it.
Hey! Our starting villagers were Plucky and Antonio! I can't believe the odds of them being demonstration for this video...
Plucky and Antonio were my starters this time around- what's the odds on that?! I gasped when I saw that part of the video.
They were my starters too! (I've never reset the island)
i think i just got tricked into learning math
The animal crossing guide book does state that there is a 1% chance on home island and mystery island of getting gold nuggets but blue bloons have an 8% chance at gold nuggets
A villager actually catching a bug
In Animal Crossing, there are 23 Uchi (or "Big Sister" if you're uncultured), and 76 Jock characters. If you keep resetting your island, there's a 0.057208238% chance that you'll get your preferred Uchi/Jock combination. Now, what if you want to get your preferred starter animals AND Fruit/Flower combinations? Using Dagnel's math of 2.5% for the flowers and fruit, there's a 0.143020595% chance of getting your favorite uchi, jock, flower and native fruit....I really hope I did that math right.
the rarest thing is probably catching a large shadow fish and turns out to be a gold fish
For a second I thought you ment a whale and then I remembered that was just a dream and shadows the size of whales dont exist
I thought I saw one while diving and I got scared lol
I just started this game a couple days ago. And seeing how far things evolve the longer you play is so bizarre to me.
As someone who's also working on a computer for 8 hours a day 5 times a week, Definetely can relate to eyestrain. All my screens (phone included) have a heavy orange tint and have brightness and contrast set to 0 😅
This was such a fun video to watch while tediously resetting my island for the right combination of map layout/fruit/airport color/dock size. Thank you.
I actually have an island layout that wasn't on the list! I have an east river layout with a natural star-shaped pond above resident services
8:20 that siren noise at the 1312 made me laugh
KK can visit on Sundays it there is an event in the plaza the day before
One time I needed the emergency service and it wasn’t resetti answering, it was DON. It had different lines, voice, EVERYTHING! it never happened again, but my friends didn’t believe me at all when I told them. It said resetti was on a vacation
My wife and I both had the exact same starter villagers and island fruit (separate switches and games). I wonder what those odds were...
holy shit, when i saw plucky and antonio i had to pause the video bc that's who i got when i first got the game hahah, surprising to see them again!
When I first started playing I didnt know about the bell system of burying bells, and I buried 99,000 bells (I wasnt rich either) and for the first 2 times I did it I got 3 times the amount but I remember being devastated when I only got 30,000
TRUE rarest event: Actually finding one of your villagers when you need to give them something
The first rock on a random island I hit dropped a gold nug..
to add to your specific fruit and flower combo you can also factor in the nook miles ticket random flower and fruit (1 of each per island on every ticket island, these odds could get worse with kappn)
THE LITTLE ACAB EASTER EGG HAD ME DEAD
It's not a guarantee to get a visitor who didn't visit the previous week. If Saturday has a special event, KK will take up the Friday slot. If you have a birthday, KK will take up the slot on the day of your birthday. If you have a birthday that week and also a special event on Saturday, KK will take up two slots, so you'll get only 3 visitors that week. I really really hate KK.
I actually had Kid the Cat as my starter villager! I got a different version of him tho so I could have his original interior
same!
actually heres something abt the first event mentioned ; each island has a specific day where if you plant more than 10k, you'll get the same (x3) amount you planted
mine for example was either wednesday or thursday, i remember i had signs for it and everything trying to figure out which day guaranteed more than the usual 30k bells
although it is possible for your island to have more than 1 day where you can plant and get back more than 10k.
its a bit time consuming, but its worth it IMO
The rarest event that can possibly occur is the game updating
good news!
K that was a good one-