What is going on with Lumber Prices in 2024?
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- Опубликовано: 19 июн 2024
- Lumber Prices Skyrocketed in 2021 and 2022, but in 2023, prices evened out and hit an equilibrium. We are now seeing the lowest retail prices for lumber that we have seen in years, but things may be changing soon. In this video I explain what will be happening with Lumber prices in 2024., expecially what is going on at lumber mills.
#lumber #lumberprices #economy
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Lumber has filed for bankruptcy due to a variety of reasons, such as heightened competition from online retailers and discount stores, a decline in sales, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The company's strategy for recovery involves a restructuring plan that concentrates on its most profitable stores to enhance its financial standing. As for your financial objectives, it is admirable to aim for a portfolio worth no less than $850,000 before you reach the age of 65. If you're interested in potential investments, seeking guidance from a financial advisor could be beneficial.
There are numerous intriguing stocks across various industries that might catch your attention, but it's not always advisable to act on every prediction. Therefore, I suggest that you work alongside a financial advisor who can help you determine the best times to buy or sell the shares or ETFs that you are interested in.
I have maintained contact with a financial analyst since the inception of my business. In today's dynamic market, the challenge lies in determining the opportune moment to purchase or sell when investing in trending stocks, a task that may seem straightforward but can prove to be quite challenging. With a portfolio that has increased by over $900k in a relatively short span of one year, I have delegated the responsibility of selecting entry and exit orders to my advisor.
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i just built a giant fence for 2k and was quoted around 15k last year
Be diy and be cheap af
Or pay and go nuts.
That is fantastic!
Hello Darkness my old friend...... Now paging @DaveRamsey. Housing will not collapse LOL.
That’s good to hear. I’m in dire need of a new fence. Got quoted 7k about 18 months ago
Leave it to government to screw things up
It's worse than you think. Prices will plummet even further. I along with many many many others during the pandemic when the lumber prices went sky high decided it was cheaper to buy our own wood saw mills for 2-3 grand. You couldn't even get a saw mill for up to 6-8 months after ordering because they couldn't produce enough of them. There are now a ton of small independent millers out there making their own lumber, and selling to friends and neighbors. This is something that has been vastly underestimated. Now we buy almost nothing from lumber companies. Add to that Lumber yards were storing records amount lumber at those high prices in anticipation of selling at a high. Now their inventory is aging, and they have to sell it out. Even at current prices I still may decide it's easier to take a fat log and make 25 2x4's for free out of a single one. The industry vastly overplayed their hand and are now paying the penalty for it and frankly deserve it for price gouging during a time of emergency for the country. The only thing they can really make money on is OSB and Plywood since a saw mill doesn't really give you the ability to make those.
The wood may be free, but there is the labor to move it to the mill, the fuel to run the trucks and machinery. The cost/wear and tear of the mill. There is still a cost.
Not to mention you can't build homes with DYI lumber until it has been stamped by a grading agency which the small DIY sawmills typically don't have.
@@henryspelter9638yes. But you can get stamps. You need only plan and wait.
I am looking for a sawmill now because I will never sell timber again! I sold timber 7 years ago and the tax i had to pay would have payed for 2 portable mills. I was trying to thin out my woods so the new growth had some room. The timber tax and capital gains tax was unreal!
@@henryspelter9638Says who? Build your house out in the country, outside of areas that require permits. Live in the house 2 years while building another one. Then sell the first one, and move into the second one. Having lived in the first one two years, you don't have to pay capital gains tax on it. And, now you start building a third house with your DIY lumber. You're building it for yourself, so whose business is it what kind of lumber you use? You can build it out of birds eye maple or lignum vitae, if you want to.
When prices are back to April of 2020 when lumber was $301.02 USD/1000 board feet. Until then. It's still to expensive. And the quality now sucks. Worse than prior.
I keep saying that about wire. 250 feet of 14/2 was $36 it's still more than twice that. Can't piss down my leg and get me to say it's raining
Inflation has not gone down. It’s not rising as fast. MASSIVE difference
Prices will rise as long as there is inflation of the money supply. I expect the rate of inflation to increase which means that prices will increase at a faster rate.
You just said what many people including the POTUS don't get.
Until we replace the privately owned "Federal Reserve" and its debt based worthless "money system" (AKA: central bank) we are fooked.
You don't understand how money works. As population grows money supply has to grow, so inflation is baked into the system. That's long-term inflation. Short-term inflation, like what we seen over the past few years, has more to do with supply chain issues and corporate profit taking. Well over 50% of the price increases of the last few years has been a direct result of corporate greed and consumer credulity. That means we've been conned by corporations who are stealing from us. But what you're seeing in this is lumber price deflation.
@@Getmesometv You must be a leftist / democrat working for the Biden administration. Your verbiage sounds like it came directly from Karl Marx. And, it’s painfully obvious you don’t understand inflationary economics. Could inflation have anything to do with the 2024 budget baseline being higher than 2021 during the COVID printing of trillions?
You did a great job.
40+ years in the study of economics, history, economics history and an investor. You did a fine job with your report.
Anchorage, Alaska
His explanation was CLASSIC HS ECONOMICS back in the day. Real concepts, reality based... That was the BEST course I ever took. I have used that knowledge to make daily decisions and I have prospered more than most folks. They do not teach economics as they used to. Another tenet of good economic theory is 'if you cannot afford to pay for it now why are you sure that you will be able to pay for it plus interest over time?' I made it a point to NEVER have a purchase I did not have the cash to cover it should disaster strike. I used the zero interest offers when we built this house, we already owned the 40A and had the profits from sale of a couple of other houses we rehabbed and rented. The last mortgage I had was paid off when I was 40. Now they teach young people to live as the GVT DOES, BUY IT NOW PAY LATER. That works for the GVT because they can just raise taxes, but when you owe a small fortune and lose your job...what then?Returning to old style economic theory may seem like a life of deprivation to the young people today, they want it all and they want it now. They cannot comprehend that the GVT LOVES INFLATION...IT CAUSES G T INCOME TO INCREASE WHILE ROBBING THE citizens in a manner they cannot see.
I built a 16’ x 16’ garage/shed in the summer of 2022. Metal roof, vinyl siding, roll up door, solar panel with lights. Material cost was under $6k. I had planned to build it the fall before but at that time the cost would have been closer to $15k.
I bought a 12 x 16 portable barn roof in south new built was 3200.00 in 2019, just checked to get a 2nd one from the company bought it from and other places, 7,900.00 and now does not include delivery so add 450.00 local delivery at almost mid 8.4k, but inflation is 2 to 8%.
I have a portable sawmill and with lumber prices dropping as low as they are currently. I am buying lumber rather than milling it and using my mill part time just to make specialty hardwood for my flooring and boards for fine woodworking.
And they are still up by 40%...😂😂😂😂 what a joke. When 2x4x8 goes back down to 1.89 ech. Then you can say it's cheap.
Bad news, brah. They printed trillions of dollars and diluted the value of your money. Prices aren’t getting much lower.
@bradjohnson1229 I know. all these currencies are fake anyway. They should have never been allowed power to print money. For the first decade U.S. dollar was more valued than anything in the world. Just because it couldn't be replicated and was backed by gold.
Sorry homeboy, trillions of dollars printed out of thin air and handed out and potato head decimating the oil industry has driven inflation to 50 year highs!!! That's never going to happen!!!
Bro wake the hell up! You think prices are going to go back to where they were? 😂😂😂😂😂 WELCOME TO HYPER INFLATION MY FRIEND.
When people continue to vote Democrat and put folks like potato head in office, the consequences will last decades!
Potato head decimated the oil industry and caused hyper inflation!
Potato head printed trillions of dollars and caused the value of the dollars in our pockets to drop by at least 40% in the last 4 years!
What were things like back in 2019 under President Trump?
The only thing that bothered me about the skyrocketing lumber prices when it happened is those gains went all to 1 group of guys. The mill owners. The folks who own the trees got the same money for their trees. The folks who harvest those trees got the same money for harvesting and hauling. The folks who work in the mill or haul the lumber to the retailers same money. Mill owners 3x the money almost overnight… That’s supposed to trickle down right? 😅
Im someone who works at a plywood mill, We got lucky at the height of everything a HUGE bonus, something that never happened before, and we also got a cost of living raise that year too, since then, yeah right but some did get down to mill employess
@@johnmc318 Well I stand corrected and am glad to hear the ownership of y’all’s mill shared the massive boost in profits with the employees there.
Very accurate, trickle down rarely works. Living in a logging community, none saw a taste of the lumber profits. Not even the landowners, unless they owned a mill too.
@@KPVFarmerIt trickles down as far as the supply shortage does. High mill profits will eventually lead to new/expanded mills, which leads to increased demand for raw materials, which requires more loggers/truckers/etc...if there is a shortage of labor required to meet the increased demand wages will go up to incentivize more people to work in those jobs. If the mills are already operating at 100% capacity, there wont be any supply pressure placed on the trees and the price of trees won't increase.
@@KPVFarmer Yeah because the government has their finger in every hole.
I’ve noticed the prices in HD lately and it’s motivating me to do some diy projects very soon. Very informative video thanks
I'm glad you liked it. Thanks for watching!
We're going to do our list of DIY'S put on hold due to prices for wood doubling or tripling the last few years.
Who can afford to pay those prices in this BIDENOMICS' DISASTER!
If the mills are going out of business, I think that means prices have found some kind of low. The sustainable low must go up due to inflation.
It would be interesting to compare today's prices with historic prices adjusted for inflation.
@@mylegalassistantsTrump sent the stimulus checks. Biden has fixed the economy without a crash. You are delusional
Thank you so much for letting us all know this information! ❤❤❤❤❤❤
You're wonderful for taking your time to keep us in the loop!
Many of us have had no choice but to put off our DIY lists.
Not only because the wood costs astronomically being overpriced but almost everything else in building supplies 😢😢😢
I wanted to build a 12X16 shed for a couple years and then covid hit so I postponed the project until the lumber futures came down and as soon as late 2022 came I pulled the trigger and bought what I needed. I tracked your videos throughout covid. Thanks for your help Dave. It saved me trips to Lowes price checking out prices. Every time I go to Lowes, I too stop, by the lumber aisles and checkout prices just to keep an eye on them.
A few months ago the mills were slowing down production and a few were idled to reduce output so as to not have too much material in the system driving prices down while the demand is dropping. Consumers are running out of their stimmy money and credit cards are maxed out buying gasoline/diesel and groceries.
And bidenomics is still killing our energy industry, cutting production of oil and natural gas month over month. So, since everything we need requires a truck to haul it to market those inflated prices are not soon to come down, if ever, because of the cost to ship everything. And still people keep listening to the liars in D.C.
Demand has been low in the custom welding field, for both residential and industrial clients. There is a lack of cash flow right now in the United States. A result of bad policy, the public fear of war, the ongoing federal rate discussions, and bad fuel prices…
Monetary policy went bad in 1913 with the beginning of the Federal Reserve.
First time watching your RUclips video. I'm 68 and going to build a porch on my workshop. After seeing this I will probably by the material in the next couple of weeks. Going to use 6 by 6 PT post with 2 by 8 rim joist and rafters. Just a tin roof. Thanks for the info!
Sure! I'm prioritizing repairs now due to lower prices. Recommending projects to friends now too.
Thanks for the info! Good work!!
I was going to build a little 4x8 shed this summer but I decided the money was better spent paying down debt. The shed would've been nice for de-cluttering the garage but it's not needed. Having a bit more cash flow not going to the bank would make a big difference for my budget. So many Americans are strapped, something is gonna break.
You can still declutter by throwing or donating stuff you havent used.
American overspending is going to break. Ppl have been living way above their means everywhere
@@kpz4936 yeah, it was going to just be a convenience thing to not have the dirty lawn tools dropping grass clippings all over the garage. There is plenty of room, it'd just be nice to have the separation.
8’X 12’ is far more usable with not that much more expense and the same time to build!
Lumber investor here. All of the producers are massively reducing capex and reducing hours of production. Quite a few companies even have negative EBITDA margins. I don't know when wood will bottom (demand is going down as interest rates hold), but I think people will be surprised how fast wood price goes up when it starts going up again. It takes time to get production up and running again.
For some interesting context, 2021 and 2022 were very strange in the wood business. The price of raw logs was actually DOWN during that time, and tree companies like Acadian Timber reported terrible earnings. The price of wood products skyrocketed because nobody was working the mills. There were corona scares where half the people don't come to work for 2 weeks, injection mandates, transportation bottlenecks with trucking and trains. Raw trees were absurdly cheap because mills were not ordering any, and finished wood was absurdly expensive because mills were not producing any.
Its amazing how te same thing is happpening here in Brazil. Exactaly the same. I own a lumber company and we expect a equilibrium in the next years. Many are closing and looking for other business options.
Well done video, Dave. Thank you.
I may resume much needed DIY maintenance projects on our home. I need to replace siding.
I like your attention to economic detail
Thank you Dave!!!!
Great video. Thanks DIY Dave!
There is also a seasonal fluctuation, higher prices in the spring and summer reflecting both increased diy and increased residential building.
Great video, Dave! Thank you for a you great explanation!!
❤
Just have to say…you do a fantastic job of boiling complicated things down to a digestible simplified format.
VERY HELPFUL!!
I started a major, or really total, remodel of my home in May 2020. I started with the back side of my roof. Ripped it off down to the trusses. OSB was $9 per sheet at the time. In October I replaced the front of the roof. I was shocked that OSB was up to $20 per sheet. Then the insane $70 per sheet prices during the lock-downs happened. So glad I got the roof done before that happened.
Regardless, OSB is currently $20 per sheet, which is still 100% higher than it was exactly 4 years ago. With the runaway inflation we've been experiencing I would certainly expect an increase, but more like 50%. Adjusted for inflation I would think OSB should be around $15 per sheet.
I'm pretty sure there is definitely still some price manipulation going on.
osb got down to $9.90 8 months ago..UP TO 15 BUX NOW.....
Going right now to get some 2x4 . This was a much better production than I expected nice job
Economics 101 done well in the video, thanks for sharing!
Outstanding economics primer. Thanks.
Very informative, man. Thank you!
I need to rebuild my back deck. I’ve put it off for years and I can’t wait any longer. I’ll be buying lumber for that.
i have increasingly decoupled myself from the corporate takeover by producing nearly all of the food i consume. it has taken more than 20yrs to slowly build to this. i doubt the prices on lumber going much lower and plan to pull the trigger on several projects this summer. for those who still buy most of their food and have to pay for rent, however, i can see this to be a frustrating time.
THat is awesome that you are able to grow all of your food. Definitely a dream that I am working towards.
@@DIYwithDave focus on your soil. grow vertical. be frugal. save so you have the capital to buy land the next time real-estate crashes. much of it is luck but you need to be ready for that lucky break 🙂
I couldn't rent anymore. I don't see how anyone can afford to live while just starting out. I've been fortunate to have a above minimum wage job for my early working years. But my city is poor and opportunities are either 15/hr and hoping a manager dies so a spot opens up. Otherwise the only rich people are the ones that own all the businesses and buy out any new competition.
@@atchmon902 yes, that is unfettered capitalism. 30yrs ago i tried to get my town to battle corporate takeover of housing through my solution with property taxes but the rich own the government in every level. now, my city is having all the problems i warned them about 30yrs ago. we went from 12k population in the 80's to 52k today. some of the most expensive real estate for town our size. everyone retires here. condos everywhere, apartments. ruining this beautiful NW mountain town. the key to preparing to buy your forever home is to make sure you owe nothing. if you have to borrow to buy it, you cannot afford it. borrowing = giving money you earn to the rich. stop wasting money. i live on less than $10K/yr and each year i cut more costs. i do not buy prepared food, i grow most of my food now but before i could do that, i eliminated all food waste. i have not eaten food that i have not cooked myself for over 30yrs. cut all processed food and all synthetics. because of that i do not get sick. ever! i used to get colds and flu 6 times a year until i cleaned up my diet and since mid 80's nothing touches me. not even when i was in school. not even when i worked at hospitals in contact with sick people. i drive old cars and buy minimum insurance. i average about 600mi of driving a year for the past two decades. that is 24gal gas/yr. i heat with wood i cut and split myself. cut gas 2011. once i am done with my solar conversion, i will be free of paying for electricity as well which i have reduced to about $40/mo. get rid of everything that does not help you achieve your goal. save money and spend it buying things that will allow you to save more money only. spending money is not bad as long as it is on things that will help you achieve your goals. you have to be very driven. do not buy property until you are free of debt, have saved some money, have made a plan for your long term independence, have gained knowledge that allows you to DIY and save money. when you buy, do not buy on 30yr loan. buy on 15y loan. you will pay nearly half as much when it is all paid off. do not buy a place and then sell it and buy another. that just makes banks and realtors richer and loses you money. understand amortization. wait for a real estate crash before you buy. doing it now is just stupid. i don't even buy all those cleaners and soaps everyone wastes money on. i have brushed my teeth with backing soda for decades which is why i never get cavities any more and have not been to a dentist for several decades. i make a paste from backing soda, water, aromatic essential oils which i use for body wash, shampoo, dish soap, bathroom and kitchen cleaner. i clean glass and counters with vinegar. i bet you spend $500-$1000/yr on that crap. sit down and figure out what you are spending on everything and find healthier and cheaper alternatives. we are constantly brainwashed into buying crap we do not need. trust me, i have spent decades de-programming myself. now i grow 90% of my food and soon i will also produce 100% of my energy needs. step by step. eliminate the waste. save money so when the crash comes and property is cheap, you are in the position to move on it. i can easily be self sufficient on my 1 acre on the edge of town no problem. in fact i have 55gal barrels of beans i have grown and i can go a couple of years with no harvest and still be fine. i have enough food to help out my neighbors in emergencies. but it has taken me 40yrs to get here. but i did not have a guide. i had to figure it all out myself. cheers 🙂
Good for you. On the lumber front, I have for many years gotten lumber from my own trees on my property, and occasionally from a neighbor who wanted a tree down. I hire people with portable sawmills to saw up the logs once the trees are down, then stack and dry them. It saves a lot of money, and I can tell them what size boards to cut for me.
Not everyone can buy acreage like I can, but a group can get together and split the cost and work, then share the wood for whatever projects they need. I know one couple who bought a sawmill, then cut enough wood to build their own house for about $4 a square foot in lumber. Of course that doesn't count all the other stuff that goes into a house. Once they finished, they sold the mill.
Most people think they save money by buying at the big box store. That is not always true. Last summer I built a new 10x10 deck and saved a little over a hundred dollars by buying at my home town family owned lumber yard. I also needed some plywood and save almost 10 dollars a sheet on 3/4 plywood!
Our small town family owned lumber yard owner told me that if he sold the quality of lumber and building materials you see at the big box lumber yards he would be out of business. People wouldn't accept it.
Big box stores are always where you get the highest priced lowest quality fasteners or Chinese garbage. Any construction project is only as good as the fasteners used 💯✌️
VERY GOOD KEEP IT UP LARRY
Here in Japan lumber prices skyrocketed but I haven’t noticed that they have come down that much.
great job of simplifying and communicating a seemly mysterious system of supply and demand. Prices here and at a specialty mill I deal with have indeed gone down.
That's interesting. What kind of lumber product does your mill process?
I sure appreciate your short & long-term observation stats on lumber, thank you.
Dave, great explanation. I'm retired from the Lumber industry, and have seen several of these cycles. I've been out of the industry for several years, so I'm not in a position to forecast prices. However, I do believe that Mills throttling back their production capacity is a major variable in stabilizing prices.
You do an awesome job with all your research!! Thank you!!!
I'm glad you found it useful!
Supply and demand. There's a store in Clovis California, we had a lot of rain and there's a stack of half inch OSB by the cash register. It was $16 and change while it was raining. It stopped raining it went up $2 every few days until it hit $22 and change.
Thanks Dave
Thanks for watching!
Lumbermills were making RECORD PROFITS during Covid.
They were definitely gouging.
Stockpiles were high, but costs did not drop.
Forest owners, shippers, and retailers were not making more, but the mills were getting rich.
mills are evil
You have to remember there are brokers (aka middlemen) who were speculating and profiting as well.
@@rockymntainexactly all that profit did not go to the mills, it mostly went to investors who bet on those futures, right b4 the price increase
Great information 😊Thank you Brother 😊
Thanks for watching!
Thanks for the info.. Good news. Now if we can get the price of land to go down. Land went up more than lumber did.
The better plywood hasn't went down much where Im at in Michigan. but is nice the other lumber going down a bit. Hardware hasn't went down much either .But far as lumber for furniture and small builds I have been looking to local privet sawmills. I would rather support them if I can. But you have more work and time for drying if not kiln dried. and also looking into geting my own sawmill. Thanks for keeping us up on prices !!!!
As a 50+ yr. retiree of the building products industry, including stints as a forest products purchasing agent, an owner of a (small) retail building products supplier, and a retail building products salesperson, I have a few observations.
Overall, I think you made some excellent points, but...
A HUGE red flag for me came (twice) from your references in the sheet goods market. NO ONE, in my experience, refers to sheet good sizes as 8' by 4'. The standard is opposite - 4' x 8' x thickness. Period. That standard is universal - followed by such notables as Random Lengths (a widely followed industry price monitoring publication), the Chicago Board of Trade (the principal vendor of building product futures contracts), etc. That reference alone, along with your reference to 2x4-8' products, made me question your credibility. The better reference would have been to 2x4-PC (92-5/8") "precut" studs, since those are BY FAR the more widely used product.
All of that said, on the more macro-economic scale, I think you made some excellent points.
Perhaps more by way of expanding on what you said, the futures market largely dictates what retail prices will be. For those unfamiliar with that market, basically it's a contract with a vendor (the mill) and a supplier (the lumber yard) to provide a given amount of product at a future date. For instance, as a lumber yard I'll contract with "brand X" mill in July of this year to sell me "this amount" of materials next February next year. The prices of these contracts vary wildly, depending largely on the anticipated delivery dates. They can easily be double (or more) for spring deliveries than they will be for the fall. It happens every year. As in so many cases, timing is everything!
Next point - in my experience, the builder/general contactor/whatever is going to be the most important client that a retailer can get. And their business will be what drives the prices for everyone. It's pretty simple, really. The builder who spends $100K per month is a lot more valuable to me, as a retailer, than the DIYer who's going to spent $5K on a one-time deck project. Is that DIYer important to me? Of course! So I'll set my prices accordingly. And then I'll give the builder a discount, a thank you for your continued business. I don't know that the box store ratio is, but at the places I've worked in my career, the builders accounted for 80+% of total sales. Is anyone surprised by that? If so, you need a lesson in basic economics!
One thing you didn't mention, and it plays a pretty big part, is the role (in the US) of government tariffs on Canadian forest product imports. I don't know what level those are at these days - last I knew, they were in the 15% neighborhood. Heh, that's $.30 on a $2.00 stud. Not insignificant, since an awful lot of our lumber and sheet goods come from Canada.
Anyhow, those are just a few explainers and reactions. Overall, I'd say you done good!
I rode my motorcycle through southern Missouri a few weekends ago. I’ve never seen lumber yards over a mile long until then. More lumber than I’ve ever seen in my life. Talked to a old trucker at the gas station running a load of timber, he said he’s never seen it this way in his 70 years. Can’t move product but the cutting hasn’t stopped so the lumbar yards are overflowing. Wish I’d taken a picture, it was impressive the sheer volume of stacked trees mile after mile after mile.
Surprised wine/whiskey companies aren't stocking up on it since they prefer Missouri white oak for the barrels.
Could you smell it? I cut a potato chip off a cedar landscape plank and my entire garage smelled for 30 minutes... it was incredible. What a nice painted picture you shared. Thanks for the smile.
thanks for sharing
Great explanation and presentation!
4 x 8 maple 3/4 plywood was $40/sheet for a very long time. The current price at my local Lowes is $90/sheet.
I am buying small project lumber, but largely holding my purchases to need only, food stockpiling, and projects with clear value added ROI.
My former employer is a sawmill in the far northern end of the SYP belt...our cost of goods sold for the most common products produced was roughly $300 per thousand board feet. Seeing futures that low brings context to their decisions to cancel any capex spending and shutting down production for 2 months.
I'll be replacing my wood deck this summer. I'll glad I was able to wait until now to do it.
I remember in April of I think 2021 the shocking Advent of the $38 2x4 at home depot. Shocking because back in 1966 when I built my house I paid 37 cents for lumber like that and it was much better quality lumber.
That's union work for you, quality goes to shit because they do not fear being fired. Work ethic goes to heck for the same reason. But price skyrockets to cover all the union fees and pay demands.
I can remember 2x4 for .89 cents, and 1/2” ply for $5.99….that would’ve been in the mid 80’s. Yes, lumber was much better quality then also.
@xlandros id be happy with reasonable prices, I'd pay 2 for a 2x4 tops after that it can sit and rot for all I care.
You old guys are old...and I'm 62
Also, a $20.00 / hour wage today would have been about $5.00 /hour in 1980. Don't know if that's a fair comparison albeit quality.@@xlandros
I mostly buy select pine from HD or Lowes and generally smaller than 2x4's because I only do hobby craft projects. I have definitely seen the lower prices and I do plan to spend more on wood now that it is cheaper. I don't think the price will go appreciably lower because I agree with the logic of your trend charts. If the mills start closing or demand increases too quickly there will definitely be increases. I'll be happy if the prices drop more but at the size and price level I buy at, the savings or minor increases will not change my buying habits.
In Waycross Georgia in Lowe's as of today is 4.29 per 2 x 4 date 3/30/24
Well compiled and presented data! With the reported intent to lower interest rates later in the year, I can see that putting upward pressure on building and lumber prices, and may be a cause of the recent uptick. Inflation is causing a shift in buying habits. As a family, we have stopped buying chips and snacks…that segment has doubled compared to pre COVID. PepsiCo/Frito Lay can pack sand!! I am sure my health will get much better 😊
Awesome 👍 would love to see a video on house prices and rent. Good job 👏
Thanks Dave. A great piece on supply and demand driving lumber prices. My opinion is that high interest is double edge sword, and I am on the side that love the high interest.
I live on the land that we owned since 2014, in a 200sq cabin that we built in about 3 months. It was built quickly like a wooden tent with insulation to let us live over winters and for a few years while we build the main house. 10 years down, we are still living in the cabin. It's comfortable, we've added a lot of the creature comforts and expanded the space to 300sqft + 300sqft porch + car port + 200sqft office building + 900sqft workshop.
We are still looking to build the main house, and I thought this would be a great year to start as we saved up to pay the entire building in cash. But I am postponing that to next year as we are earning great interest with the money in the bank. What we are also doing is stockpiling timber at such great prices!
There are many reasons to not build early, and there are for building now. For us, we are happy in the little cabin, but we could not entertain any friends. Anyways, we have plenty to do, so next year is just fine. Other than earning interest, we are also postponing higher property tax.
Definitely will go up. How quickly and by how much is and will be a mystery.
I work in the lumber industry. Our company just laid off a bunch of people because we don't have logs. Just yesterday our road restrictions were lifted. But we're having a hard time getting logs anyway because of the government.
Thanks for the informative Video. It just so happens I need to buy Lumber to repair a wall for my mom.
Glad you liked it. Good luck with your project!
Planning on a few projects that i would be doing either way but the cut is nice
Good data thanks fren
Excellent video 👍
Very good notes, Dave. Could I use your graphs to show my channel's audience why I haven't bought lumber for my model railroad yet?
I think you nailed it inflation ,and my opinion supply and demand.
Just built a deck. 8x10 main level and 5x6 lower level, 4 steps. $2100 and some change for ALL the materials. Not too bad.
For the last 2 years Ive been wanting to get my smal kitchen remodel, but bc of high labor charges cabinet making & construction labor it is the highest ever!
Is a good price now, I payed over $14 for a 2x4x8 pt like 2 years ago, now I just did my fence few months ago and just finished a deck and been paying 14 something for 2x6x16 pt , is a great price!
Very good video.
I just bought enough 1x3s, 1x4s, 1x6s & 1x8s to do all the trim on a 1300sf Barndo that I'm finishing...cost me just under $700 for mediocre lumber.
Thanks!
Thank you!
I’ve been doing quite a bit of reclaimed lumber people are glad to get it.
Great video
I don't know where you're shopping for lumber but around here prices have not come down much at all since they went up in 2020. A standard 2x4 is still almost 3 times the price it was pre-pandemic, and sheet goods are still astronomical. Some stores are 'lowering' prices around here by making the pieces smaller.
where
Nice, now i can actually replace my fence 😊
2x lumber has actually increased by 30-60 cents in the last week where I am in far Northern NY. Too bad the quality never increases though.
Softwood demand led to heavy logging recently and consolidation makes sense. Softwood in the US is plentiful but cost depends on location. Lumber companies can painlessly shut down and
restart because time is on their side. The renewable "crop" is pine so low demand just means more time for growth to feed the next cycle.
Douglas Fir is the more common renewable crop in the Western US. It is superior to pine in strength, and weather resistance. We do see pine occasionally in 2X, but it is mostly milled for 1X stock.
great video😊
Thanks!
Most of the dimension lumber I need to do my job is so twisted or warped it should be labeled cull lumber.
I deal mostly with hardwoods for furniture and custom projects so my world has not seen much of a reduction in prices. However I decided to build a deck in my yard and after doing the cost analysis I found this same project is at a 60% discount from the last time I ran the number about 2 years ago. Will construction materials go lower? I doubt it. They may stay flat for a while but the way the currency is losing purchasing power, I dont think I want to take that gamble. I am "buying the dip".
New Jersey here…. Lumber prices going down and will continue to do so in my opinion. Home Depot and Lowe’s (I have 6 within 25 mins) are hurting. Quite a bit fewer customers buying less. People are worried about there jobs and income/savings not so much on extras (building she sheds-man caves fad dying out)
But the economy is doing so well . lol
Hey Dave, I'd love to hear your thoughts regarding how cost of goods--generally speaking--have roughly doubled post-covid, yet nobody's salary has doubled (nobody I know, anyway). So, where's the money coming from to keep buying? Is it debt-funded or ??? Am I the only one who feels a massive crash is inevitable? What am I missing? Thank you for all you do for all of us!
Thanks
Ever since the pandemic, companies just thought "PARTY TIME RAISE PRICES!!! WOOT!!!" - you'll never convince me that the prices raises we saw had anything to do with reality. It was simply raise prices, raise them way higher than we think we need to and then see what happens. It's the old gasoline industry to raising prices that was started back in the late 90s, early 00s. Where you don't just increase prices, you double or even triple them and when you settle them back down, people are relieved but you're WAY higher than you were and would have been had you increased them slowly over time.
BUT it may have backfired because it wasn't one industry doing that. IT was everyone doing it. Grocery stores were shameless about this and I saw where 1 store was selling the exact same coffee for $5 more than another store 1 mile away. It was insanity.
The problem is, consumers are fatigued now and feel the very real pressure to make ends meet. SO look at the new car markets right now - all of the dealers are overstocked and most are heading for record levels of inventory. AND the used car market has pretty much dried up. Meaning people are holding onto their cars longer and finding it's cheaper and easier to simply get the fixed up rather than ditch em and buy a newer one.
The tool markets are starting to show this also as prices are dropping and staying down across many of the top brands include Milwaukee.
I see this in the BBQ Grill markets also as grills have been marked down, not just gone on sale, from over $450 a year ago to $299 now. That's a HUGE drop in price and the units don't seem to be moving either.
I've heard that many long haul truckers are not only having to park for long periods, many of their routes have dried up as companies that over expanded during the higher prices are now collapsing under the excessive debt.
I think 2024 is going to provide a HUGE correction to prices across the board and IMO this is primarily because of soooo many different industries raising prices so much and so quickly back during the pandemic. They simply did too much too fast and it's not sustainable. 2025 will be a crash and prices will plummet.
No, the plandemic was full of political pressure for companies to close or reduce staff and impose inefficient work space measures to accommodate the plan. The Stalinist imposition of "essential" and "nonessential" work did great damage as well.
I agree..
Definitely
Yes !@@stephen1137
Let's hope you're right. Retirees like myself are feeling the pinch more so than working people. I'm making enough but things could become unsustainable for me at some point if inflation continues as it is. Thanks a lot for the excessive price hikes Biden.
at its peak where i live, the cost of one 2x6 that was 8 feet long was 86$. It almost made more sense to build your home out of metal. In my case, metal garden beds at the time were less expensive than wood ones!
People don't want you to cut a tree in forest, but they want an affordable new home. I there a problem with Group Think?
It's true, but most trees cut for lumber in the US come from managed forests or plantations. That is actually very environmentally friendly and a lot of people dont understand that. We can both protect old growth forests and produce quality lumber.
Here in Maryland they banned plastic recyclable bags and bringing back paper bags (for a fee if course) so much for the trees😅
its not that they do not want to cut a tree. it is that they do not want the land destroyed through uncontrolled abuse. let us be honest and look at the abuses to our planet and drive responsible use of natural resources instead of greedy destruction that has historically been the norm. the key is balance and that is not achievable through hyperbole.
Lol. Hopefully they are made from recycled paper. The fortunate thing about paper products is that they are very easy to recycle, unlike plastic, which we are learning is very difficult to recycle.
@@jimmygiannakis3638of course the fact that there is microplastics in your blood stream may have something to do with it. personally, i do not use disposable bags of any kind. paper, however, is mostly from recycled materials and does not affect people's health.
Farm structure projects that were on hold/pending are now “on” as far as I am concerned
Thanks for the info. With the significant inflation and job losses people can't afford houses. Lot' of people are living in their cars/vans/RVs. I'm talking millions. The goal of the UN/WEF are concentrating the population in smart cities in stack and pack type housing. Must think about that when we see patterns.
Depopulation agenda.
Our numbers here in NJ haven't really dropped that low. 6x8 dog ear fence is still very high at $76 a section. 4x4x8 PT is still over 10 dollars. So we still find cheaper ways of building if we can.
Once i saw those crazy lumber prices I stopped any DIY using wood and have sort of forgot about it. Now that I know its cheap again I will think about restarting the projects.
If prices were cut today in half I would consider it low for 4 by 8 sheet of 3/4 plywood. But I also remember when sheets of drywall were 3-4 dollars by me they're 10-12.
I worked 20 years at Rex Lumber Co in Acton MA and got laid off in 2009 when the stock market crashed
While it is true construction grade lumber has gone down, other categories of lumber have remained at their highest cost. At Home Depot, furniture grade plywood has remained around $95.75 in sheet-- remaining at its 2020 price. 1x lumber at Home Depot also remains at its 2020 price. This still hurts DIYers who don't have access to lumber mills.
Try pricing it at specialty wood suppliers. It will sometimes be lower for the cabinet shops and you can find other wood types/ thicknesses not usually sold at the big box stores.
I was shocked when I looked at some big box lumber prices a few days ago. I thought prices had come down.
Equilibrium.... but, good info thanks!
The only way to stop SOME of the prices from going up or staying up is to STOP BUYING the product. That's easier to say than do for eggs, gasoline, milk, etc. I was amazed that when the peak on building materials hit, there was still plenty of home building going on! I would have stopped or not started knowing what a framing package was going to cost vs what it did cost before. My $.02.