Severe Storms/Tornado Threat: May 20 - 22nd

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  • Опубликовано: 27 сен 2024
  • In what seems like almost every day now, another multi-day threat for severe storms across the US. Details below:
    Monday, May 20th:
    Late evening storms develop across Nebraska and Iowa into adjacent portions of Kansas, South Dakota, and Minnesota. Not a lot of helicity and low-level shear, so the tornado threat will be low, but not zero. A few isolated tornadoes are possible, especially in Nebraska. Otherwise, large hail and damaging winds possible.
    Tuesday, May 21st:
    Morning convection over Iowa will fizzle out and move eastward by the afternoon. Storms will develop over Nebraska by the afternoon and move eastward into Iowa. High helicity and veering winds in the low levels, especially over Iowa and northern Missouri, will produce a localized tornado outbreak over that area. If storms form into line segments, the threat of large tornadoes will be lowered. However, very high bulk shear will be in place over Iowa, so any squall line that does congeal will be able to produce extreme wind gusts, especially over eastern Iowa. The potential exists for thunderstorm wind gusts over 80mph.
    Storms will back build over Missouri where a secondary threat of tornadoes could occur, especially where cells can remain more discrete. All these storms should congeal into one long squall line stretching from Wisconsin to southern Missouri by night time. Damaging winds will be the main threat, but a few isolated tornadoes and large hail reports could be possible.
    Wednesday, May 22nd:
    Severe storms should fire along the entire cold front from Texas to Ontario, Canada. Storms won't be widespread and should be more multicellular and cluster-like. This along with lower shear and helicity will keep the tornado threat low. Hail and damaging winds will be the main threat on Wednesday.
    As always, follow the Storm Prediction Center for important updates.
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    X/Twitter: @KvnCeleste

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