Tesla's Reorg: Necessary Evil or Strategic Mistake?
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- Опубликовано: 14 май 2024
- Brian White @4kpodcast (host of FutureAza on RUclips)
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Sure does'nt look brighter with Elon decision making and secretive plans ! We're all loosing money and he could'nt care less ! Does he suffer from an egocentric type of illness , symptom of a dictator ! He's focussing too much on the future , that does not sell ! He has no notion of selling himself and his company !
You know I watch you both your channels quite often yet hadn't realized you guys are shaping up to become some of the sharpest Tesla RUclipsrs out there, keep up the great work!
Appreciate that!
I seriously don’t think they will produce the Robotaxi at Giga Berlin for quite some time. I suspect they will ramp Giga Texas first. They will tweak and fine tune this new un-boxed manufacturing process in Texas before duplicating the process anywhere else. They will need their parts suppliers especially for the new parts and components for 48v architecture to ramp up in Texas as well. Tesla doesn’t want to compete with Giga Berlin for the limited initial production of these new 48v components. Tesla doesn’t want to import a Giga Berlin Robotaxi to the US until the Texas Gigafactory has reached full production capacity.
US law also has a notification requirement. Where you have to notify employees about their layoff. But US law also allows the company to pay the employee instead of waiting. Most companies go with paying off the employees.
It sounds like according to your timeline in the video that even though my computer says you released this video just 3 hours ago that you in fact recorded this episode nearly a week ago. I didn’t realize that your videos had such a lag of time on them as we know that the info on Tesla changes almost by the hour.
Video was recorded Wednesday 3 days ago
The turmoil and FUD around Tesla never bothered me owning shares.. I just always assumed by 2030 Id be thankful I bought them and can retire with some money on my pocket... but I no longer have that confidence.
The stock is apparently fsd or bust now even for some bulls. Expectations on car sales and margins are not coming to fruition. All the patreons with excel sheets on deliveries and margins are now apparently unimportant to some of these same people.
It was only a couple of months ago where all the hype and talk was humanoid robots. We were told robots can come faster because they don’t need to be perfect unlike self driving. Now all the hype is robotaxis. Meanwhile the balance sheet is what it is…
And this ‘unboxed’ thing thus far is a lot of talk from the standpoint of the general public. Now possibly no model 2 for years. Car sales is why reducing the price to manufacture was supposed to be so important. But if robotaxis can generate 100k per year then saving even a few thousand in upfront manufacturing cost is relatively unimportant. I see an inconsistency in this.
Look at the larger picture. Even if robotaxis never appear Tesla still builds highly desirable EVs. Plus semis. Plus large and small scale storage. Plus humanoid robots. Lots of major profitable activities underway.
It appears to me that Tesla's FSD breakthrough might be changing a portion of the company away from a lower profit small EV to a very, very profitable robotaxi.
Tesla does not need to run taxi services. It currently costs about $100k to keep drivers in a taxi 18 hours per day, 365 days per year. Tesla should have no problem taking a nice hunk of that $100k savings (per year) via selling their robos at a high price and taking a part of the money earned per mile by the taxi company.
I'm in a similar situation. Now is not the time to lose the faith. I'm still buying.
The Semi as a program has been a subsidised disaster.
The Cybertruck is a huge misstep. It won't sell in the volumes Musk expects, and cannot be sold across most of Europe?!
FSD full legal automotive is a decade or even greater away.
As for the robots, don't hold your breath.
Arguably Tesla's greatest innovation and success, their charging network and integration they're allowing others to use. Bad move.
If you want to properly know how bad for Tesla Musk is, listen to his recent Space X talk about Mars habitation and deflecting nukes.
He's not inspirational gets delusional.
Then he fires 10% of the work force before an earnings call, and just before hopefuls like yourselves will vote to give him 50 billion in shares??!!
Thus devaluing your own positions.
Then once he's able to sell them he's gone..
@@stuartburns8657
Congrats. I think you got everything wrong. Batting a perfect zero.
Layoffs are likely going to bring more calls for unionization.
so true that's a good point
Unlikely. There were never real calls, the unions are the ones desperately want to get in, but can't due to lack of interest.
And these layoffs are common, especially in Silicon Valley. Last two years was layoffs everywhere.
Tesla: A riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.
Not to me. Musk is toxic and brand damaging.
Laying off 10% before and earnings call AND before his 52billion stock vote (board are all friends snd family) is disgusting
I agree with Brian on white collar layoffs. It sounds like the design for the vehicles and the lines are dialed in and the letter stated they were duplicate positions. You definitely wouldn't need duplicates on lines or did the Highland model upgrades reduce labor needs that much? 🤔
I'm assuming they will start with the robotaxi variant of the new platform because the small number that they will produce early in the production ramp will be much more impactful as robotaxis vs. human-driven. As they meet the demand for robotaxis further along through the ramp they will shift production to a higher ratio of human-driven. This is assuming that most of the production process for the two variants will be identical, which is likely.
Agreed. But, when robo-taxis work, there will be a huge decline in the desire/need for personal car ownership. Not that personal ownership will go away or not be the choice of a significant number of consumers, but it will be a low priority for Tesla vs. robo-taxis...hence the balls to the wall comment. Good news is, FSD will be SaaS and work in all kinds of situations and different BEVs.
It only makes sense that this is a platform for multiple variants, including regionalized needs/preferences. It will be the cliched "skateboard," even though the unboxed method kind of blows up the slightly dumbed down "skateboard" idea. There can be an underlying/common platform but it won't be a skateboard that everything is dropped onto...that is already not the case with the battery pack and seats being lifted into the unibody.
Your thesis makes a lot sense. Get the taxi variant out first (no trim/color options needed) so it will be very quick to build. You don't need to make many for the initial introduction and trials (this initial robo phase could take years). Once the unbox model is working, quickly add the low cost consumer models.
I wonder if Tesla could purchase part of Hertz or form a JV with them, to clean, house, charge, inspect, repair, etc. robo-taxis. Hertz and other car rental companies are well positioned to maintain a robo-taxi fleet. Alternately, Tesla could use this support function as a good reason to greatly expand its service center part of the business.
Sell or lease their robots to other companies who operate the taxi service. Take a cut of the profits via least and/or FSD fees.
It presently costs at least $100k per year to keep drivers in a taxi 18 hour per day, 365 days per year. If Tesla took 10% of that annual savings they would make $100k per car over a ten year useful life. Let someone else make decent money dealing with the cleaning, routing stuff.
@@bobwallace9753 Agreed. A Hertz or similar is well equipped to maintain a fleet of robo-taxis, which I don't really see Tesla being interested in or particularly good at. Even outside of cleaning and other daily upkeep that a Hertz type is good at, they have a large retail footprint to house and service these vehicles in a widely distributed fashion. Maybe their urban footprint isn't that great but probably not a big deal with autonomy...just equals more downtime.
Possibly, they could partner with a Hertz type to do the daily operations, give them a cut, but still own the vehicle and the bulk of the revenue. Maybe this could be a cottage/hustle industry of Door Dash type guys doing the cleaning, etc. OR Optimus.
Robo-taxis are certainly existential to Hertz, Uber, potentially public transport, regular taxis, trucking, deliveries, etc. I am not sure why Amazon deliveries of the last 20' are seen as such a problem...drone much?
Also, maybe they could do a few rounds of funding but Tesla doesn't, despite the Scrooge McDuck billions of cash on hand, have the capital to just make BEVs and not sell them. Not insurmountable, if they want 100% ownership, but not inconsequential either.
You are literally saying that that robo taxi is a horrible business because of high operating costs, but companies will be lining up to lose money while writing Tesla a big fat cheque. Makes perfect sense. Keep drinking the Herbert and Brian kool aid.
Maybe the lay off staff is to prepare put humanoid into operation as a business case
Of course its necessary. All companies should review their position regularly. Most are not bold enough to do it and end up stagnating.
How many people were involved in writing code and labeling for the pre-V12 FSD efforts? Seems like those people have become redundant.
What if Tesla simply built and scaled the highly automated production line for model 2 and optimized existing production lines for other models. Once they are ready to run those lines, they shouldn't need all of the employees used to build it, right??
It’s the beginning of a New Era… 🧠☀️🎬 New market growth!
pff... what are u on... letting people go is simply not a good thing at all... I guess u have never ever worked on the floor or even know of economics...
Could they build the robotaxi tougher, i.e. stainless steel, and the next gen. in a cheaper way?
Cheap may not be as important as very long lasting. Imagine a body that won't suffer rust damage in areas where road salt is used. Stands up to the normal stuff that dings and dents other vehicles. That's a 20+ year body.
Make it easy to replace the wear surfaces like suspension parts. Make it easy to refurbish (and clean) the interior.
A $20k vehicle which is pretty much trashed in five years costs more than a $40k vehicle which lasts thirty years.
Perhaps Tesla is more than a car company. ❤
Stramline sales & delivery = Cars will deliver themselves via FSD. Why is nobody talking about that?
Neither evil or a mistake.
There will be robotaxi and robocar. Same platform. Plug and play steering and foot controls.
That's fine but too far away in the future ! And it still might not sell !
model s and x in india makes little sense to me.. traffic never gets above 35 km / hr. anywhere and parking tiny vehicles it a challenge, let alone larger ones.
How about producing 4 million cars pro Giga?
Giga Berlin = Biggest error by Tesla
Same plant built in neighbouring Poland or Czechia would have been a massive win
Yeah I figure they needed a lot of techs to set up infrastructure, but now the automated systems are doing their work. So now they have excess staff.
And in China it's just a market issue with China backing Chinese manufacturers with tax cuts etc....
Never second guess Elon. I will follow him with my money wherever he is. He is always in control. and 5 steps ahead in organization. I trust that genius 100% and those that don't they will be the losers.
Control Freak ! Looks like a dictator ; his head is getting too big and he's not communicating anything at all ! Big Secret
Oh ffs every company has reorgs every few years. Why does Tesla get international news coverage for something that literally every company does? It’s getting ridiculous.
CMON, it is called ROBOtaxi because it will be built by optimus ROBOts . That is why we haven't heard a thing about optimus for months. If FSD is not compute restrained, then neither is optimus.
India is a huge, huge opportunity. They want to and have been modernizing for a few years now. They are an economy that is just in front of critical mass. They are computer and I.T. smart. Tesla represents the 21st century and smart brains should and do know this. They want Tesla. Tesla should want them back. They could end up being as big or bigger than China. China knows this so that is a risk, but rising tides raises all boats. Especially large yachts….lol
let me know when you have it all figured out
Always great content.
The next PHASE!! I sold all my stock a few days ago, made 15k ish. So glad I sold it.
1. Robo Taxi is a pipe dream right now , sorry our FSD model Y is great but no where near 100%.
2. Delay the model 2??? Seriously if thats true what a fn stupid idea.
3. Where is the Semi??? Where is the Semi factory?? Its still a dirt patch.
4. Where is the Mexico plant?? Should have cars coming out end of 2024 early 2025. Still a patch of dirt.
5. Tesla energy growing but no where near whats needed to prop up the stock.
6. All this Robo Taxi BS, who cares about 8-8, the software isnt ready, may as well show us a X-wing fighter.
7. Elon him self, dude just needs to shut the f up on twitter. His stupid tweets and boom stock drops 5-6%. Just shut up.
8. Where is optimus , stop with the PR videos show the damn thing doing some actual work??!
9. Everyone spinning 10% layoffs like some how its good news!!! No no its never good news.
10. All these Tesla channels that try to put a positive spin on Tesla right now, the stock has crashed CRASHED from about 250 to 148, CRASH. A crash isnt a buying opportunity. I have some stock experience I see the stock going under $100 around July. Then I will get 1500 shares. Yes I believe in teslas future but right now everyone with a brain can see the bottom is a few months away.
You are absolutly right on everything ! everybody was so optimistic ! Tesla (Elon) is very enigmatic : dont say anything , no communication , very secretive ,no selling skills : that's pretty much the description of Elon ! He's a control freak !!
😢
Around 6:00. I think the layoffs are happening because Tesla isn't ramping up production. They've gotten to where they wanted and now extra staff are just not needed.
Sometimes transparency is a killer. Everyone has their own theory of what Tesla I so doing and most of them wrong.
I totally agree. ONE SIZE does not fit all situations! Sometimes it is better to play your cards close to the chest!
If you are properly utilizing AI, you will be cutting staff. Unfortunate but true
Another brilliant collaboration brothers!
You’re forgetting Sandy’s walk through, where he was told the top, third floor, of Giga Texas was being prepped for “something new”
Apart from the company's natural streamlining, it doesn't help by the recent activists sabotage, they're shooting their own feet or killing jobs of their own people!
India is a needed hedge for when Xi goes ballistic.
You got that right. Tesla’s sales in China and their entire China manufacturing operations will disappear overnight if the CCP goes for invasion of Taiwan and war against the West. Look at what happened to the car manufacturing in Russia by Western companies after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
I will buy back in to Tesla when they fire Musk! Tesla needs a full-time ceo that isn't an overpaid child . The board needs to get rid of all those yes men who are too afraid to keep the ceo in line.
Elon looks like he's got mental health issues ! He acts like a dictator full of himself ! He's obsess with his vision of the future , it might happen but it's going to take much longer then he thinks ! The idea is not sellable for now
Why is Tesla so enigmatic ? Don't say anything ,everything is secretive !I'm getting very concern with Elon Mental health : very control freak !Like some dictator ?? He seems obsess with his vision of the future : I'm loosing lots of money and I am not happy and he does seems to care for the small investors ! Everybody is overly positive about Tesla , but without the smaller car the prognostic are too far in the future !
$25000 car is not coming… Bad for Tesla….
where is your proof that it's not coming
Robotaxi 8 /8-2024 🚖
= 300% profit =
Better than 10% profit on a 25000$ car.....
@@user-xj5xp6qz5gTesla has never said a model 2 non-robotaxi car is coming. Asking someone for proof of a negative is futile. It’s like asking someone to prove things called gods don’t exist.
The next PHASE!! I sold all my stock a few days ago, made 15k ish. So glad I sold it.
1. Robo Taxi is a pipe dream right now , sorry our FSD model Y is great but no where near 100%.
2. Delay the model 2??? Seriously if thats true what a fn stupid idea.
3. Where is the Semi??? Where is the Semi factory?? Its still a dirt patch.
4. Where is the Mexico plant?? Should have cars coming out end of 2024 early 2025. Still a patch of dirt.
5. Tesla energy growing but no where near whats needed to prop up the stock.
6. All this Robo Taxi BS, who cares about 8-8, the software isnt ready, may as well show us a X-wing fighter.
7. Elon him self, dude just needs to shut the f up on twitter. His stupid tweets and boom stock drops 5-6%. Just shut up.
8. Where is optimus , stop with the PR videos show the damn thing doing some actual work??!
9. Everyone spinning 10% layoffs like some how its good news!!! No no its never good news.
10. All these Tesla channels that try to put a positive spin on Tesla right now, the stock has crashed CRASHED from about 250 to 148, CRASH. A crash isnt a buying opportunity. I have some stock experience I see the stock going under $100 around July. Then I will get 1500 shares. Yes I believe in teslas future but right now everyone with a brain can see the bottom is a few months away.
@@timsmith6815 i think selling was a mistake.. I aint happy with whats happening to the stock either but Id never sell it and take a hit like that
TSLA will continue falling. Voting against Elon’s compensation package and replacing him is the best move for the company.
that would be a catastrophic error of judgement.
If they replace Tesla that would be the end of Tesla innovations!
@@edwardhackett-jones8126Elon isn’t the only innovator on Earth. He buys companies and takes credit for their founder’s innovations.
@@jeffsalvesen8450 that’s utter bs. If you believe that you really are a moron.
@@jeffsalvesen8450 that may be so but you cannot deny his success with leading this company
8:00 - Twiiter. Twitter was massively bloated -- lunches were reportedly $400 per person even though most of the staff telecommuted. Giga Berlin, developed under Elon's watch, must be fairly efficient to begin with. You can't compare the two. Also, cutting 3,000(?) in Giga Berlin fuels the pro-union argument in Sweden, another headwind Tesla doesn't need.