Back in the day, when I purchased my first home to live-in; that was Nashville in the early 1990s, first mortgages with rates of 8 to 9% and 9% to 10% were typical. People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Pretty sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.
If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.
Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; get your money (as much as you can) out of the housing market and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes.If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with Annette Marie Holt for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
love the definitive mix issue with median addressed. Lay people think their homes are going up in value causing a false wealth effect. Shame when the rug gets pulled
@@EthanFlynn we are getting delist relist hacks when it comes to knoxville. Hides the price reductions and DOM from people. I wish there was an easier way to see if a current owner had ever list to today as days on market. Rather than DOM being the current listing. I commented this to nick at reventure to see if he could add it. It'd be huge for buyers to see if a property has been listed multiple times as that might as well be one giant DOM amount.
Thank you Ethan, I think you’re spot on. I watched a Willco listing go from 1.5 to 1.35 to 1.1 to going UC at 994 the agent waaaay overpriced it and the market said um, No
If everyone sells fast there will be a crash. I don’t see distress. If anything sellers with lots of equity willing to give it up quickly. I’m more worried about inflation but it could happen 🤷♂️
@@hutchservesgaming totally understand. It looks bad no doubt. What concerns me though is how they will use debt monetization and money printing to try to dig out. It’s very unpredictable and could send our asset prices way up.
@@EthanFlynn in my neighborhood alone there’s like 10 homes for sale and last months there was only 5 (Walter hill in the Boro) I am also a process server and everywhere I drive. Vacant homes and for sale homes. And many empty apartments. Americans are 1.3billion in debt too which is not helping
@@EthanFlynn especially when 7 companies hold up to 85% of the S&P 500. 40% of the buy now pay later loans they gave out last year for Black Friday and Christmas have defaulted. The banks are failing and need money and Americans have nothing to give
Great video, Ethan. Lots of interesting points. Every day I’m checking listing volume in Williamson County, it’s getting crazy. And this is the busy time of year!? I can only imagine how many price cuts are going to be happening when the Fall rolls around.
I hope this area sees more assumable listings pop up that don't require 100k 200k 300k cash down. With the FED itching to lower rates and recent economic data giving them the excuse to act before years end, i don't see this buyers market or falling prices lasting long. Monopoly money, 💯 nailed it. Great content! With productivity sideways, they're running out of options before they're forced to inflate the debt away. We know cutting spending isn't an option in DC.
I’ve been saying this since last year, looks like it stagnated about a year before capitulation. Now the question for me is will Davidson at large fall only and additional 15% or will it be more like 30-45% over 3-4 years? My best guess? 25-30% over 2-3 seasons.
Also, if you look at some of the ibuyer listings like Opendoor, their spread is now looking like 13-16%, where before it was more like 5-7%. Pretty soon they will probably go to 20% or just stop buying here.
Really appreciate your perspective of a bifurcated market with two distinct segments, above and below $1M, each behaving differently in terms of pricing, supply and demand, and activity. What about a full show on the sub $1M housing market, acting like the $1M+ market didn't exist. Might be some interesting data points.
Inventory is back to pre-pandemic levels. Prices can't remain at the current price to earnings ratio. Great analysis. Folks are going to be shocked when fall rolls around and they haven't gotten offers even after several price cuts.
🎉🎉🎉 I don’t remember if I mentioned this before but I believe that one of the reasons that there’s so many over million dollar homes out there is because a lot of people bought in at around $700,K and now have them listed with greedy minds. Thank you Ethan, Carlos
But if they can get it 🤷♂️. The best thing that can happen is for too many people to cash out and then panic sell. Would create a massive correction in prices and could happen without forced selling or foreclosure.
Williamson county of course all the houses are in the $1MM price range….. in the desirable areas!!! Not to mention prices have doubled since 2021 in places like brentwood
Will buy when the cost of buying makes sense vs renting. Not a moment sooner. Still plenty of downside potential with many would be sellers waiting for rate cuts (makes no sense to wait while still near all time highs but people are stupid).
No doubt. This makes sense to wait for plenty of people. I also agree rate cuts are less likely. But I’m leaning toward more inflation with less restrictive rates even as they rise. IMO the most likely outcome is rents rising rapidly for the rest of the decade. I hold that belief loosely but it’s my opinion that rents will catch up with mortgage. And prices will drop some but not as much as people think.
@@EthanFlynn impossible to know what will happen but we know inventory is building now even before the slow season. Jobs and consumer for now weakening. Even more sellers waiting in the wings. Fomo buyers have come and gone, only smart ones who will sit on their hands left. Election wont immediately change what has been slowly unfolding purposefully by the fed.
@@EthanFlynnit probably doesn’t make sense; it makes too much sense. Thoughts from a big headed humble S&P beater: Markets very often don’t treat you well if you’re doing what seems most logical on the surface because what matters most is often making sure that you aren’t doing what everyone else is doing. In the stock market, when everyone knows prices will keep going lower, that’s the bottom. Because everyone knows it, only long term Diamond hands holders are still in the market. No sellers left. Back to housing markets. When sellers all know that rate cuts are coming and that this will mean higher home prices, they’re effectively collectively waiting to all dump their properties onto the market at the same time. I don’t have bets placed on this. Just explaining why it wouldn’t be a surprise if rate cuts don’t bring price increases. Because an individual can follow a line of reasoning and be correct. But when everyone participating in that market is also correct in the same way, they’re actually all wrong.
@@EthanFlynnit probably doesn’t make sense; it makes too much sense. Markets very often don’t treat you well if you’re doing what seems most logical on the surface because what matters most is often making sure that you aren’t doing what everyone else is doing. In the stock market, when everyone knows prices will keep going lower, that’s the bottom. Because everyone knows it, only long term Diamond hands holders are still in the market. No sellers left. Back to housing markets. When sellers all know that rate cuts are coming and that this will mean higher home prices, they’re effectively collectively waiting to all dump their properties onto the market at the same time. I don’t have bets placed on this. Just explaining why it wouldn’t be a surprise if rate cuts don’t bring price increases. Because an individual can follow a line of reasoning and be correct. But when everyone participating in that market is also correct in the same way, they’re actually all wrong.
I don’t have a strong opinion but active listings have not been growing near as much as Davidson County. That being said I think lower priced housing is still too expensive and so demand will struggle even with lower listing growth.
Nashville is successful but its business base is only so big. The amount of high paying jobs just doesn’t support these prices. It’s not a Dallas or Atlanta from a business standpoint.
In a normal cycle I would agree. And you may be right. But I think there’s a bigger problem with the long term debt cycle, our currency, and budget deficits. It makes me question how much prices can really fall. Not saying it can’t but just very uncertain and leaning toward inflationary outcome.
some ppl are overpriced to begin with. my house is up 100k in 1.5 yrs in 37075. so glad i bought when the doom and gloom folks said that prices would fall. they didnt. prices in nashville area definitely fall in the fall and winter and rise in the spring. buy in the winter.
This sounds very circular. If your house doesn’t sell it was overpriced to begin with? One way we can counter this is to objectively look at how many homes have cut price in proportion to total active listings. If realtor behavior is the same this year as last then price cuts show the market has shifted. This isn’t doom and gloom. It is what it is. Also, totally agree. Buy in the fall and winter. Fall is coming early this year.
You might want to run your house again. Hendersonville has had many reductions this month. Lennar cut many of their new homes 100k this month. It will take a couple of months, but 37075 is being hit and will fall much worse. Sumner County also reapraised homes this year, which is doubling some property taxes.
Tennessee in general won’t really drop until later this year and that depends on what happens in the election… the majority of people moving here are trying to escape what’s happening in these liberal states and if Trump wins these liberal cities will burn. I’m not trying to be negative or anything, but we all know how these folks act when they don’t get their way.
You lose a lot of credibility when you have column charts that don't have a y-axis of zero...intentionally misleading or poorly trained in the quantitative display of information?
You mean where I zoom in on the bar graph and clearly label it as a 3% drop? Intentionally misleading? Seems a bit dramatic but always appreciate people sharing their perspective.
@@EthanFlynn it's a column chart not a bar chart and "zooming up" on a column chart is bad practice and should never be done. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misleading_graph
www.ethanflynn.com
Let's talk! Book time here: calendly.com/ethanflynn/30min
Back in the day, when I purchased my first home to live-in; that was Nashville in the early 1990s, first mortgages with rates of 8 to 9% and 9% to 10% were typical. People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Pretty sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.
If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.
Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; get your money (as much as you can) out of the housing market and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes.If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.
@@LucasBenjamin-hv7sk Impressive can you share more info?
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with Annette Marie Holt for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an email shortly.
love the definitive mix issue with median addressed. Lay people think their homes are going up in value causing a false wealth effect. Shame when the rug gets pulled
I highly agree with you. Just a fact. Thank you for your reply. Blessings,Carlos ✝️🙏❤️😊🇺🇸
I think this is also why a lot of sellers delisted. They thought their home values went up more than it actually did.
@@EthanFlynn we are getting delist relist hacks when it comes to knoxville. Hides the price reductions and DOM from people. I wish there was an easier way to see if a current owner had ever list to today as days on market. Rather than DOM being the current listing. I commented this to nick at reventure to see if he could add it. It'd be huge for buyers to see if a property has been listed multiple times as that might as well be one giant DOM amount.
Thank you Ethan, I think you’re spot on. I watched a Willco listing go from 1.5 to 1.35 to 1.1 to going UC at 994 the agent waaaay overpriced it and the market said um, No
This is great content! Thanks again !
Thanks!
Housing market will crash soon as economy gets worse
Gotta sell fast
If everyone sells fast there will be a crash. I don’t see distress. If anything sellers with lots of equity willing to give it up quickly.
I’m more worried about inflation but it could happen 🤷♂️
@@EthanFlynn I just don’t see how it doesn’t crash with all the banks that have been falling and the global inflation across many countries
@@hutchservesgaming totally understand. It looks bad no doubt. What concerns me though is how they will use debt monetization and money printing to try to dig out. It’s very unpredictable and could send our asset prices way up.
@@EthanFlynn in my neighborhood alone there’s like 10 homes for sale and last months there was only 5 (Walter hill in the Boro)
I am also a process server and everywhere I drive. Vacant homes and for sale homes. And many empty apartments. Americans are 1.3billion in debt too which is not helping
@@EthanFlynn especially when 7 companies hold up to 85% of the S&P 500.
40% of the buy now pay later loans they gave out last year for Black Friday and Christmas have defaulted.
The banks are failing and need money and Americans have nothing to give
Great video, Ethan. Lots of interesting points.
Every day I’m checking listing volume in Williamson County, it’s getting crazy.
And this is the busy time of year!?
I can only imagine how many price cuts are going to be happening when the Fall rolls around.
Thanks for sharing! If you don’t mind telling, what area in Williamson?
I hope this area sees more assumable listings pop up that don't require 100k 200k 300k cash down.
With the FED itching to lower rates and recent economic data giving them the excuse to act before years end, i don't see this buyers market or falling prices lasting long.
Monopoly money, 💯 nailed it. Great content! With productivity sideways, they're running out of options before they're forced to inflate the debt away. We know cutting spending isn't an option in DC.
If prices drop this could happen. I really hope it does.
yea assumable rates with zero equity houses would be ideal. Not sure how many cash out refi's are out there but I am sure there were some in 2021.
I’ve been saying this since last year, looks like it stagnated about a year before capitulation. Now the question for me is will Davidson at large fall only and additional 15% or will it be more like 30-45% over 3-4 years?
My best guess? 25-30% over 2-3 seasons.
Also, if you look at some of the ibuyer listings like Opendoor, their spread is now looking like 13-16%, where before it was more like 5-7%. Pretty soon they will probably go to 20% or just stop buying here.
Price cuts and sales below previous sale price are all over Zillow
Really appreciate your perspective of a bifurcated market with two distinct segments, above and below $1M, each behaving differently in terms of pricing, supply and demand, and activity. What about a full show on the sub $1M housing market, acting like the $1M+ market didn't exist. Might be some interesting data points.
Inventory is back to pre-pandemic levels. Prices can't remain at the current price to earnings ratio. Great analysis.
Folks are going to be shocked when fall rolls around and they haven't gotten offers even after several price cuts.
Great info!
🎉🎉🎉 I don’t remember if I mentioned this before but I believe that one of the reasons that there’s so many over million dollar homes out there is because a lot of people bought in at around $700,K and now have them listed with greedy minds. Thank you Ethan, Carlos
But if they can get it 🤷♂️. The best thing that can happen is for too many people to cash out and then panic sell. Would create a massive correction in prices and could happen without forced selling or foreclosure.
Williamson county of course all the houses are in the $1MM price range….. in the desirable areas!!! Not to mention prices have doubled since 2021 in places like brentwood
It’s wild.
*"prices drop as price cuts soar"* makes sense to me.
Will buy when the cost of buying makes sense vs renting. Not a moment sooner. Still plenty of downside potential with many would be sellers waiting for rate cuts (makes no sense to wait while still near all time highs but people are stupid).
No doubt. This makes sense to wait for plenty of people. I also agree rate cuts are less likely. But I’m leaning toward more inflation with less restrictive rates even as they rise. IMO the most likely outcome is rents rising rapidly for the rest of the decade. I hold that belief loosely but it’s my opinion that rents will catch up with mortgage. And prices will drop some but not as much as people think.
@@EthanFlynn impossible to know what will happen but we know inventory is building now even before the slow season. Jobs and consumer for now weakening. Even more sellers waiting in the wings. Fomo buyers have come and gone, only smart ones who will sit on their hands left. Election wont immediately change what has been slowly unfolding purposefully by the fed.
@@EthanFlynnit probably doesn’t make sense; it makes too much sense. Thoughts from a big headed humble S&P beater:
Markets very often don’t treat you well if you’re doing what seems most logical on the surface because what matters most is often making sure that you aren’t doing what everyone else is doing. In the stock market, when everyone knows prices will keep going lower, that’s the bottom. Because everyone knows it, only long term Diamond hands holders are still in the market. No sellers left.
Back to housing markets. When sellers all know that rate cuts are coming and that this will mean higher home prices, they’re effectively collectively waiting to all dump their properties onto the market at the same time.
I don’t have bets placed on this. Just explaining why it wouldn’t be a surprise if rate cuts don’t bring price increases. Because an individual can follow a line of reasoning and be correct. But when everyone participating in that market is also correct in the same way, they’re actually all wrong.
@@EthanFlynnit probably doesn’t make sense; it makes too much sense.
Markets very often don’t treat you well if you’re doing what seems most logical on the surface because what matters most is often making sure that you aren’t doing what everyone else is doing. In the stock market, when everyone knows prices will keep going lower, that’s the bottom. Because everyone knows it, only long term Diamond hands holders are still in the market. No sellers left.
Back to housing markets. When sellers all know that rate cuts are coming and that this will mean higher home prices, they’re effectively collectively waiting to all dump their properties onto the market at the same time.
I don’t have bets placed on this. Just explaining why it wouldn’t be a surprise if rate cuts don’t bring price increases. Because an individual can follow a line of reasoning and be correct. But when everyone participating in that market is also correct in the same way, they’re actually all wrong.
Ee
Hi Ethan: Love your videos what do you think will happen to Lebanon and Cookeville TN?
I don’t have a strong opinion but active listings have not been growing near as much as Davidson County. That being said I think lower priced housing is still too expensive and so demand will struggle even with lower listing growth.
The only option i see here in Lebanon is to wait for the new builds. There are huge developments underway. The price on existing isn't realistic.
Nashville is successful but its business base is only so big. The amount of high paying jobs just doesn’t support these prices. It’s not a Dallas or Atlanta from a business standpoint.
Inbound migration is mind blowing. It will continue to be a tailwind IMO.
Housing is not like stock - so I do not think it is gonna change on a dime. This is just beginning of a long drawn-out down slope.
In a normal cycle I would agree. And you may be right. But I think there’s a bigger problem with the long term debt cycle, our currency, and budget deficits. It makes me question how much prices can really fall. Not saying it can’t but just very uncertain and leaning toward inflationary outcome.
some ppl are overpriced to begin with. my house is up 100k in 1.5 yrs in 37075. so glad i bought when the doom and gloom folks said that prices would fall. they didnt. prices in nashville area definitely fall in the fall and winter and rise in the spring. buy in the winter.
This sounds very circular. If your house doesn’t sell it was overpriced to begin with? One way we can counter this is to objectively look at how many homes have cut price in proportion to total active listings. If realtor behavior is the same this year as last then price cuts show the market has shifted. This isn’t doom and gloom. It is what it is.
Also, totally agree. Buy in the fall and winter. Fall is coming early this year.
You might want to run your house again. Hendersonville has had many reductions this month. Lennar cut many of their new homes 100k this month. It will take a couple of months, but 37075 is being hit and will fall much worse. Sumner County also reapraised homes this year, which is doubling some property taxes.
Tennessee in general won’t really drop until later this year and that depends on what happens in the election… the majority of people moving here are trying to escape what’s happening in these liberal states and if Trump wins these liberal cities will burn. I’m not trying to be negative or anything, but we all know how these folks act when they don’t get their way.
People will downplay politics but it is a huge factor in where/how/when people move. I’m shocked at how much it influences decisions.
lol just ignore J6. Trump isn’t winning but if he does it will be accepted. Not like you domestic terrorists.
The majority of people moving here are blue state invaders that have caused the locals cost of living to skyrocket! They bring nothing positive here
Crash incoming
Maybe! But if our currency crashes first what happens to home prices?
You lose a lot of credibility when you have column charts that don't have a y-axis of zero...intentionally misleading or poorly trained in the quantitative display of information?
Thanks for the feedback. Which charts are you referring to?
You have a bunch of them 2:35 is especially egregious. The chart makes it look like a 70%+ drop but it is actually 3%.
You mean where I zoom in on the bar graph and clearly label it as a 3% drop? Intentionally misleading? Seems a bit dramatic but always appreciate people sharing their perspective.
@@EthanFlynn it's a column chart not a bar chart and "zooming up" on a column chart is bad practice and should never be done. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misleading_graph