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About a year ago when I typed in Nashville real estate crash, your page was the first one to come up now. There are many others ahead of you. Just an FYI appreciate your week weekly videos so much.

Is the data you’re analyzing readily available to everyone, or you can only get it from MLS or other resources available only to realtors?

I’d love too see a deep dive on attached housing

thanks as always Ethan for sumarizing in a video what i keep seeing in the MLS

How do you find assumable properties if they are unaware or not advertising it?

Just sounds like greedy sellers.

About the job market, we were thinking about upgrading to a bigger house since the mortgage rate is coming down, but now I’m not sure if I will still have a job next month so will not consider this move for the foreseeable future until job market gets better.

Needs to drop another 30% before I’d even consider buying

If you are planning to move to Nashville metro in say 6-8 months,where do you see the prices/inventory going? I don’t see any really “special” or a deal but maybe I need to get in contact with someone who lives there

🌴🌴🌴 Thank you Ethan I always enjoy your videos. I know that in Texas some of the big builders are giving great incentives for buying with them and especially giving some great rates (Lennar) BUT they are hiding these things so that they’re not showing in their sales price. Is this also happening in Nashville and the surrounding areas? Also I would love to see you do a little research into the Mount Juliet area. Love your data as always. Blessings,Carlos ✝️🙏❤️😊🇺🇸

You are always insightful. My family is considering a move to TN and will call you when we need realtor assistance.

I think some if it is agents delisting and relisting to hide the price cuts and time on market. You can trick zillow/redfin/etc by tweaking some of the data to make it look like a different listing. Have to dig to find the original listing sometimes.

Keep them coming it looks like you were right!

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What is "cap rate"?

Can't wait to see 6 months free. I'll move right in 🤣

Where can we find the assumable loan listings ?

Wait until you realize world population has topped and its all down from here

Where is this duplex? I want to biy it.

Just make sure you can afford it without the rental income. That should only be for “extra” income.

Well, the short answer is, you are correct. There are a multitude of appraisal issues I could discuss. But on this issue, there is an appraisal concept, mostly used in commercial, but not always residential. It refers to “going concern”. This concept assumes the business will continue to operate at its current rates, on many aspects, but also the future returns. It just doesn’t exist in residential. Not every subsequent buyer wants to be a landlord. Maybe they just want it for in-laws. Or once in a while guest. The income wouldn’t matter. Yes, it would be there, but it’s not an apartment, or a duplex, etc. It’s a single family home with an accessory unit. But you are correct. For this reason, a buyer that is interested in added income, and being a landlord, can take “income advantage” from the sale price. But the appraiser is correct in their judgment. It’s an accessory unit to be valued at what can be proven. Appraisers are the interpreters for the market. We have to consider lending rules, USPAP (our guidelines), FNMA, VA, and FHA guidelines. And other adjustment factors to many to list These are areas most realtors don’t know. If the market agreed that the value should be higher, it will sell for that. If it doesn’t, the market doesn’t see the value. It’s about what you can prove, not about what may be. Excellent content. You are though a top notch realtor for buyers. Amazing find you made here and will substantially help your buyers. Apologies for lengthy comment, but really do enjoy the content.

Great job! Keep us in mind!

This is great content. Kudos!

🌴🌴🌴 Hi Mr. Ethan I Love the way you think and do deep dives into your data and how it effects everything financially. You are very creative in what you do and I highly respect that. There’s so much more then just the price of a property and what you can afford. If I were a first time home buyer and got you as an agent I would be absolutely blessed beyond imagination. Everything you share just seems to make a lot of sense. Thank you for today’s video my RUclips friend. Blessings from Paso Robles, California, Carlos

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Gosh, it's almost like the Feds attempt to destabilize the market is working

Great job

I noticed prices are softening in Nashville

Excellent as always. I vote for waiting at any price point. I do live in Williamson. I sold my home at the top almost 2yrs ago. Parked my gain in short-term Treasuries and equities, leased a home under market value, and am patiently waiting for all the Fed's bungling to catch up with it all. Will there be a crash in Williamson? Nope, too much money in Williamson. Mortgage rates don't really mean anything here because most people have enough excess cash to effectively "buy down" the rate or pay outright cash. Will there be a small softening on price? Perhaps. I'm just waiting and looking to cherry-pick a place that will be my last purchase. BTW, Mexican triple BBB-rated bills are paying nearly 11%. Very nice.

There's no way prices will go down, lol.

The fact that rates have come down by ~1.5% from peak and sales volume is still declining is another great indicator that the market is running out of steam. The sellers with equity will probably adjust and get out first. Those that bough more recently may be in for some hard truths in the next couple of months.

Nashville is my hometown. I’m an appraiser, realtor, and general contractor now for over 20 years, in Davidson County. Ran across the channel, and enjoy watching. I love stats, but I’d be careful about getting so micro. TN continues to be a desired state with no income tax. We have always had a relatively stable economy in Nashville with tourism and health care. Now we have this new tech sector. Those are all stable industries. What you are seeing in the MSA is a multiple of pricing correction from Covid, compared with a change in desired high wealth areas, mixed with the high cost of money. It’s still a class issue. Higher value homes continue to be fine. The stress is in the home values most of us need. These debates have gone on constantly in my 20+ years of real estate. I can assure you that I’m not buying anymore homes in the nations for $50k or Cleveland Park for $25k. Or Sylvan Park for $175k. Yes, all prices I’ve paid. There may be yearly ups and downs, but for buyers looking for a 3-10+ year play, I wouldn’t wait if the property matches their needs. What I would be careful of, is buying cheaply built or cheaply flipped homes.

Great clip! Milton Friedman 🫶

Fasten your seatbelts. The first to sell their homes are going to get the highest prices.

They will crash here. Homes cost more in mortgage price per month than you can rent them out. There are some that are ok but when you can't rent it for what you pay. Then those are bad deals.

In rental markets for the newly finished big apartment developments, the modal discount in terms of "months of free rent" has shifted in Nashville from 2 months to 3 months. Some are also waiving application fees on top of this. While such discounts are attractive, it means your annual rent in year two would see a 33% increase, as you pay over 12 months rather than 9. I cannot imagine people are dumb enough not to realize this trap is waiting for them. At what point do developers in Nashville recognize that their pro-forma rental prices are just too high, and just knock down the listed asking rents? Would this not make more sense than carrying an empty building on the books, praying that it magically rents out in the future sometime? 2000 dollars a month for a 480sf studio in Metrocenter is not going to happen.

🌴🌴🌴 Hey my friend Ethan 👋🏼. I highly agree with you that home prices will continue to get lower and lower in Nashville and the surrounding areas. When I first started watching your channel I believe that I made these kind of statements regarding a real estate crash. However like I also mentioned that I never was effected financially in the market in the 2008 hard times. This bubble will definitely pop. But I feel that the Nashville area is pretty strong financially and will be one of the last states to get hit in the next crash 💥. It’s all starting to happen and until then I’ll be saving my money, paying off debts and getting my credit score as high as I can. I really do appreciate all the data you share. Thank you Sir for continuing keeping an eye on things. I hope that you’re finding great clients to buy and sell in these very strange times. See you next Saturday. Blessings,Carlos ✝️🙏❤️😊🇺🇸

So two schools of thought. First, fed will cut rates, recession hits, inventory goes up and prices come down. Second, fed cuts rate, soft landing happens and employment goes up as businesses decide to expand, prices go higher, inflation becomes out of control, huge recession comes in later part of 2025, peak decline in house prices by 2027

The Fed rate cuts will drop prices at all price points. With lower rates, more people will list, hoping to move up or down, adding more inventory to the market. With higher unemployment, prices will have to come down to entice the buyers who are still employed.

First

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This didn’t age well

Consider the evolution of the Nashville home market over the past 40-50 years. Age of home and finish level are having an outsized impact on the housing market right now in Nashville. We experienced a very large boomer boom in the 80's and 90's and a disproportionate number of those houses are coming to market right now with aged finishes that are difficult to sell given fundamentals on purchasing/renovating (construction prices, interest rates).

I moved from Milwaukee to Hendersonville, in 1997 and it was the best move of my life. At that time, Wisconsin had the 4th highest state and local per capita taxes in the country and Tennessee had the 2nd lowest. While Tennessee does have high sales taxes the property taxes and no income tax make it much more affordable than other states. The quality of life we've enjoyed raising a family has been great and I intend to die a Tennessean. Best state in the country and I've lived in several of them.

So Ethan, my wife, and I moved here from Washington State almost a year ago and have been looking in Williamson County to buy a home for nearly 2-years now! Watching things float along with no significant changes is grueling, to say the least. We had a house that popped off Split-log Road about 45 minutes after we signed a contract to buy a home, which ended up having issues, and we had to back out. Once we did, the house already had an offer from a different buyer. We made a backup offer and waited. Needless to say, the first offer successfully closed escrow, and we were left looking again. Ugh. Jackson Hole will not bring the news everyone thinks they will regarding lowering interest rates.

Nashville is tooooo dang dangerous

Gemtification ruin black lives,

Not just LA? Tn aint rite

NOOOO!!!! These liberal a'holes will ruin our great state!

help me buy a house and assume the mortgage.