Nashville Hot Spots See Massive Inventory Shift
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- Опубликовано: 14 окт 2024
- This is a Data centric Analytical approach to the Nashville Tn Housing Market. We look at trends in active listings, median price, mortgage rates, contracts, rent rates
Ethan Flynn
www.ethanflynn.com
423-767-6000
tflynn@realtracs.com
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TN CPA License: 24309
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Recurve Real Estate
DANA JORGENSEN
PRINCIPAL BROKER | OWNER
LICENSE: 344195
(615) 496-3837
dana@recurverealestate.com
#housingmarketupdate #nashville #housingcrash #housingmarket
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Interested in your take on Whispering Hills. Selling now and close to Crieve Hall. Hard to comp because of Creive Hall prices and new builds.
Former potential buyer here. I was looking for 2 years, but sellers weren't budging even slightly. I recently saw a house drop to a price for the exact offer I made 3 months prior. However, now I rent a room with no desire to buy an overpriced liability since I'm stacking my paper
We had the same experience. Helped a buyer offer on a house $150K lower than asking. Seller wouldn’t even respond. Called us a month later asking us to make the offer again. Too late.
Not so sure Uhaul price being higher in LA vs Nashville means that there are more people moving (at least via uhaul) from LA to Nash than vise versa. EVERYTHING is more expensive in LA, so don't think this reflects the amount of migration one way or the other. That being said, you might be right that migration form LA to Nash continues to be high.
It’s a fair point. I may do a more elaborate video on just migration. I think there’s a lot more data than this that’s lead me to the conclusion. This is an easy illustration of what I’m seeing.
Yeah I was thinking the same thing.
All that means is people are leaving LA. Uhaul was paying people to drive trucks to La from anywhere.
Curious your take on the Capitol view, Germantown area?
The content creator is very humble however I want to shed some light. I work in the real estate insurance industry and houses have been decreasing prices in the greater Nashville area. Williamson county specifically had their listing price average drop from 366 a sqft to 313 a sqft. The selling price fell from 333 a sqft to 278 a sqft. JUST WAIT FOR THE WINTER TO BUY! The migration has stopped in 2024 Q2-Q3 and returned to normal levels. There is no more outside money coming in, in an abundance during COVID. Just wait, please! Also do not buy a town house,condo, or apartment. They do not keep value and your HOA is terrible. The houses are the same price if not better.
On household consolidation- me and my husband moved to middle TN in 2022. He is from here, we moved in with his parents until we could buy. Fast forward to now, we have a baby and no one in the house wants to move and the prices are still insane. Now we are all waiting for prices to cone down and trying to buy something together.
Nashville is tooooo dang dangerous
What is absorption?
What is household consolidation?
Absorption is net increase in apartments rented. So if 10,000 apartments are rented and then it goes to 10,500. Then absorption would be 500.
Household consolidation is the size of a household increasing. So if on average 3 people live in a household and then that number goes to 4. Then the total number of houses needed shrinks by 1/3. This number can change in a recession and it can change demand big time. But because it’s not easily measured it doesn’t get a lot of conversation in media.
Forrest Crossing is a great neighborhood. It has close proximity to I-65, Cool Springs and Downtown Franklin. It's also older which lowers the price but most have been remodeled. Kids of all ages, golf course, community pool. It's a pretty close to ideal place to raise kids. I've got friend there.
Totally agree
Thanks! Great stuff. How’s Maury and Rutherford counties looking?
🎉🎉🎉 Oh how I miss the Nashville real estate market from 20 years ago when I first started investing there.
I was fortunate to get into the first high rise Condo in downtown Nashville on the 25th floor (the VIRIDIAN) for only $205,K. My first home I bought in middle Tennessee was only $105,K. My last home in Mount Juliet I bought about 6-7 years ago for $435,K and sold it almost 2 years ago for around $778,K.
Now looking at prices just blows my mind.
Thank you Ethan for all the hard work you put into making these videos for us, Please don’t ever stop.
I am still planning on getting back in but only after TSHF.
Blessings,Carlos ✝️🙏❤️😊🇺🇸
I’m also happy to see your subscribers growing 😊.
@@SirCarlosMusicBMI thanks Carlos! What if this is it? People nervous in front of an election? There’s so much money printed and I don’t believe the debt will sustain without inflating away. That’s my biggest worry. More inflation. Will home prices drop in another inflation wave? Rents will be heading higher in Nashville.
@@EthanFlynn like I keep telling you; the Nashville market has me scratching my head every time I look at prices. Interest rates will have to get to double digits before it falls.
It’s going to be a very interesting ride. Keep on filming and I’ll keep on watching. Thank you my friend, Carlos
@EthanFlynn money may be printing and will continue meanwhile your bank account goes down is what it is.
People are nervous to buy because of the latest conditions in the world and threat of what is coming : rising cost of everything, elections, cryptocurrency, talks of world war, food shortages, so folks holding onto (depleting ) cash for emergency/backup. Sorry for the doomsday report.
Your migrating analysis is so good, and will be an important factor thru all of this..
New subscriber here, aawesome work!
Kalispell MT, new listings and rentals coming out our ears, both NOT moving. YOU are regional at best. Hardly anything you said, to NOTHING in some instances applies to our market here. UR software $40k a year, not sure it is worth it given Montana, listings and rentals on the market for MONTHS, PRICE CUTS galore, still not moving. The ONLY thing that software is correct a/b is stubborn, GREEDY sellers and landlords not moving on their price. I'm OUT of the market, all cash buyer here and watching the aforementioned squirm.
The State announced a shortfall in the revenue. We only have a sales tax. Pretty good indicator the whole economy in Tennessee is going down.
How about some info on the other counties surrounding Nashville and middle Tennessee?
Do you have a specific area/type you want to see?
Smyrna/Rutherford County please.
I left Illinois... It's a mafia state collapsing due to public employee benefits
Thanks for sharing. Were you referring to 1212 Demonbreun or 1212 Laurel? If Demonbreun are those from the developer? Laurel St will see a rush to sell once there are plans to develop that parking lot. The price per square foot premium for condos in Nashville never made sense to me, assumed it has to come down as more nice buildings get built.
@@RK-re8nk i was referring to Laurel. You are saying when they develop the parking lot there will be even more listings? Sounds bad.
Last year it seemed so bad but prices didn’t drop much. I wonder if this year will be different.
300-400k for a 750 sq ft CONDO.. No wonder so many are leaving TN or staying but moving back in with family.
Prices coming down due to increase in inventory, this will create a dominoe effect
I hope so.
So helpful, Ethan! I appreciate your dedication to getting these out each weekend.
Thank you!
First impression on why prices aren’t moving is the election year, the uncertainty of interest rates, and investors propping up the market. Very interesting housing market, good value will be the winner at the end of the day
Excellent point on household consolidation. It makes sense as housing becomes more unaffordable. I have no idea how to measure that other than if there’s data on number of people pre household. I don’t think that’s updated often though.
It’s weird how 1212 has so much more inventory than Icon and Terrazzo. I’d love to see data on how The Pullman is pre-selling. The lists prices are so high it makes the other 3 buildings look like a bargain. Maybe they are throwing in a lot of free upgrades?
Another interesting economic data point is Nashville restaurants are 20-40% less busy than last year. That’s a HUGE drop. Open table has it as a 30% drop which is largest in the nation. That’s crazy with the population growth and tourism that restaurants have that big of drop. I think consumers are at their limit as CC debt keeps hitting new records. Something has to give.
Oh wow. I need to look into the opentable data. Very interesting.
Marcus - Lots of great data on household composition at the census: The American Community Survey is updated annually and you can look at 1 year and 5 year estimates. data.census.gov/table/ACSDT1Y2022.B25011?q=Household%20and%20Family%20Davidson%20County,%20Tn
My observations while eating out have been the same in restaurants, too. Burger and Grain in my neighborhood is an awesome restaurant, but it can't get a consistent number of people through the door.
If owning it costs double what you could rent it for, the property is extremely overvalued. Don't just make a nasty offer. Make an insulting offer 🤣
😂 Yes. It’s hard to make sense of condo pricing from a fundamental perspective.
household formation & net migration slow in rate hiking cycles, which is why (among other things) inventory is moving higher across Nashville msa and even in williamson county.
net migration in Davidson is nearly flat, and barely returning to 2020 levels. Biggest surprise in my data diving: Davidson County has one of the highest churn rates in the nation: only 80% report being in the same house last year, and 10% move within Davidson every year. Haven't compared to the rest of the MSA, but that's higher turnover than NYC, LA, SF, Atlanta, STL, and Charlotte. 72k people move within Davidson vs 41k coming from out of state (keep in mind everyone that's not NET migration, only in-migration - about that many people leave Nashville each year, too) data.census.gov/table/ACSSE2022.K200701?q=geographic%20mobility%20davidson%20county,%20tn.
Great take on what is happening . Love your channel
Not just LA? Tn aint rite
"It's so bad, it's good." - Ethan Flynn, CPA
Gemtification ruin black lives,
Plenty of affordable housing in and around Johnson City. Things have gone up in the last two years, but not disastrously so.
awesome data
Thank you!
Buying and Selling Property? Cover yo ass! and get a survey done! with Miller Construction Layout we do land surveying all over the middle TN area