Nashville Home Prices Have Peaked
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- Опубликовано: 25 авг 2024
- This is a Data centric Analytical approach to the Nashville Tn Housing Market. We look at trends in active listings, median price, mortgage rates, contracts, rent rates
Ethan Flynn
www.ethanflynn.com
423-767-6000
tflynn@realtracs.com
www.ethanflynn.com
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TN CPA License: 24309
TN Real Estate License: 356949
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www.realtracs.com
Recurve Real Estate
DANA JORGENSEN
PRINCIPAL BROKER | OWNER
LICENSE: 344195
(615) 496-3837
dana@recurverealestate.com
#housingmarketupdate #nashville #housingcrash #housingmarket
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“Let’s take a look at a couple of dumpster fires“. Best opening line ever!
😆
Just coming across your videos. We got a new build coming up on 2 years ago when the rates just started flying up. When I saw builders buying down rates into the low 4s we scored a new build with a rate buy down. It’s a good time to be a builder.. hard for an existing home seller to compete with national builders buying down rates. These existing homes will continue to sit if builders can keep offering great incentives.
Awesome video. I'm in Memphis and have looked at Nashville for a while, so this is good information. If only we have more like you in Memphis! :)
I really love your videos! Great information. I’m curious, what are your thoughts on Charlotte Park in Davidson County? The variance in listing prices seems to be very wide. In addition, some houses are selling quickly, while others have been listed for sale for months with multiple prices cuts.
625 in Bordeaux. UNBELIEVABLE.😂
Unbelievable
Also agree with your last video on CRE and the disaster that is coming or already here and kind of hidden.
Thanks James!
Seconding the Charlotte park comment. Curious your thoughts on the Charlotte park/general west Nashville area. I feel like West Nashville is expanding as Sylvan Park/West Meade/Charlotte Park/even into Bellevue grow and grow
I love that area! We house hacked into Sylvan Park and to this day it was my favorite place we lived. Loved the neighborhood and neighbors.
I’m generally positive on that area as I think it’s the best side of Nashville from an access and traffic standpoint. There are some stellar Veteran loans to be assumed in that area. One in Sylvan Park.
In general Davidson has massive listing growth and the market is softening so be careful and ask for more than you think you can get.
Jason Walter's latest video showed that nationally inventory is significantly higher YoY while sales are slightly down. In Austin, inventory is all time high and 30% more than last year, while sales down single digit. The trend is pretty clear for most places.
I agree.
A question for you; it does seem that inventory growth is slowing earlier than average. Would be curious your perspective on other areas and if you think sellers will tighten up as they realize they won’t be able to get all time high prices. Or if this is driven by sellers in financial need.
@@EthanFlynn Think it is highly correlated to builder activity - wherever builders are busy, the inventory growth is more pronounced. Sellers/investors, especially those who are marginal, will capitulate in adverse market (home price stagnant or down) as their costs are piling up and rainy funds are exhausting. Those well-cap-ed ones may hold a bit longer. But if the market condition persists, they are prone to sell and take whatever profits are left.
Nick from Reventure said he had some developers do correlation analysis for a new version of his home price prediction score and they found “percent price cuts” to have a shockingly high correlation to future price declines. I think it was 58% R^2 but I’m going from memory here. It’s in his latest members only video.
And also that percent price cuts was the leading indicator with the most predictive power. Inventory, he said, was surprisingly less predictive than he expected.
It's pretty amazing. Price cuts are the best predictor. Shows that people need to sell their homes.
We did exactly what you pointed about stream valley and bought a new build because the price of the existing homes does not make sense. The 6% concession is cash for closing costs and rate buy downs which makes it free to close. The newer versions have upgraded interiors such as all wood floors when the 2015 versions had carpet. Why pay over $100K more for less? Makes no sense.
Right!? Better finishes. New builds are disrupting neighborhoods all over, this is a great example. Thanks for sharing!
Are you happy with the quality?
Im not happy that we had to pay so much at all. But at least it beats paying for a 10 year old home at a much higher price. The new build appeal is that everything else is significantly overvalued vs it’s worth.
🎉🎉🎉 What a great video today filled with so many great information.
Like I’ve been saying for the last year or so.. How I feel that all markets will fall eventually, it’s finally starting to happen in different parts of Tennessee.
Keep up the great work Ethan.
Until next Saturday
Blessings,Carlos ✝️🙏❤️😊🇺🇸
Great! Thank you!
Ethan, I bought a new build (good local builder) in nice part of Franklin just north of Berrys Chapel in 2017. Some in our neighborhood sold in 19-2021 for about what I paid, but then in 2022 they doubled which scared me terribly. I lived through 08-12 where homes in Westhaven were losing $200k per and elsewhere. Sold in May 22, had to rent for a year because of business obligations and then left the area. I expected a collapse in late 22 or early 23 but didn't see it, although price per square in that neighborhood went down, friends said Franklin was protected because of migration. What are your thoughts ? Why so different from 08 ?
My personal beliefs and from what I can tell from data is that we are benefiting from the greatest migration of our lifetime. And it could hold prices up / reduce any widespread softness. On the other hand if it reverses, or let's say one of the big drivers was actually the SALT deduction limit which sunsets in 2025 or 2026 and doesn't renew. That could change things. Migration / Household size are so important and we have the least amount of data on both.
Hi Ethan, love the videos. I’ve been making offers in Crieve Hall/Caldwell Hall/Glencliffe. Buyer demand is extremely strong in these areas for below $600k. There is inventory, but it’s all bargain bin quality. Would you expect this area to cool down in the coming months? Do you expect the “buckle up” to apply only to tall skinny new build communities or will it hit single family too? Thanks for your work.
Thanks! The forced/panic selling is on the commercial side. So developers of residences like the one showed is an example of very reactionary selling.
On the single family side. Crieve Hall is very strong because of its price point and proximity to the city. However there are value hacks like assumables that pop up on occasion in the area.
The Fall is a much better time to buy because the migration slows dramatically.
Of course you usually get the leftovers so you have to pick your poison.
@@EthanFlynn This is helpful. Who would pay $600K for a shoe box in Bordeaux? Trinity Lane has been in the news for all the wrong reasons for the past 30 years in Nashville. I don't think even Oracle can save Bordeaux.
I have someone reaching out about a Crieve Hall house they want to sell. I don’t think it’s ready to be listed but they are likely going to sell soon. I’m happy to connect you if you want to inquire about it. Contact in description.
I don't think it will tank. I think it will be a long grind down over 2-3 years. There could be some deals to be had with distressed sellers, and an economic event (likely in the next year or two) could speed that up a bit.
Those people that bought at 625k are upside down for 10+ years now. Hope they really like the home.
This forecast seems reasonable. I don't see the massive wide spread forced selling happening in Single Family outside of some FHA neighborhoods and developers in over their head.
Why do you use median sales price to track the market instead of median sales price per square foot sold?
it's still not perfect but it's a lot more detailed than pure median sales price, which leaves out almost all nuance
I track both. Sometimes I show PPSF and for neighborhoods I use PPSF almost exclusively. It's a good suggestion. Maybe I'll show it next time.
@@EthanFlynn good to hear. I was thinking maybe i was missing something, as I only use my license for personal research and access to the MLS. I also look at median sales price sometimes but not nearly as often.
thanks for your videos, the analysis is very well researched and structured
Inbound migration still booming?
Yes. All indications are immigration still very strong for now.
Driving around middle TN I’ve noticed a lot of license plates from New York, Florida, California, Idaho, Texas, Washington and even Oregon. Guess what they are running from? Crime, high taxes, hyper inflated costs in their hometowns. Migration will continue until these subside in those areas.
Think so - look at Cali's atrocious home prices. Even Las Vegas, a place not that much livable, is booming due to the spill-out effect.