We already have too much propaganda. A country that now has about 20million people under its control has no manpower shortage but the enemy that has 200 million has shortages? Wake up! All this propaganda is just to justify more resources poured down a sink hole. You want insight? Go to Col Doug Macgreggor to find out what is going on.
I understand that time is limited and that quality video takes efforts to be produced but your interpretation of the situation is so valuable I hope you can find time to put the effort doing more videos they are so appreciated 🎉❤😊
Please respect that he is not just any youtuber living off this. His day job is being a naval officer in the Danish Defence Academy - doing exactly the same thing! Unless you have acces to military secrets yourself it doesn't get any better that this. He doesn't lay the entire puzzle for you, but you can always trust him to make the best possible pieces!
The corruption revealed by the equipment and supply line shambles makes it very likely they haven't a clue in my opinion and probably even a calculated estimate is not reaching Putin!
Another point is that the 300,000 new soldiers are not all front line combat troops. That includes a lot of people in support roles. Of course the Russian military already had mechanics and such, so if the 300k were primarily intended for combat then it wouldn't be the normal ratio you'd expect in a modern military, but definitely not all of them were intended to be infantry.
Ive heard a lot of them are also placed in behind the line positions and such, to make up for all the empty spaces that redirected russian soldiers left.
Very true! If you look at other force organisations charts, like fx US 3rd Armored Corps, A LOT of the formations and units are support roles. Signal companies, field hospitals, rear echelons of maintenance and supply. A rule of thumb is normally for every frontline soldier at least 3 are in the rear/support roles. (And thats probably low for NATO standard units)
more important, russia cant resupply ammunition, vehicles heavy arms and weapon systems anymore while Ukraine is being resupplied continuously by Europe and US. Endex for the orcs.
Need an update. Russia has the upper hand at the moment and does not appear to be losing 1500 troops per day. Also, Russia has dry powder as Putin has not issued a full mobilization order, which would lead to more ethnic Russians being forcibly drafted.
Don’t forget that lot of Russia dead are buried in the battle field or are Lost in the battle field blown to smithereens. And many are unrecoverable and unidentifiable. It happens in wars.
For western estimate to be anywhere close to accurate, that would have to be the case for 95% of Russian casualties. If you believe that, you’ll probably believe anything to be honest….
Ukrainian military units post drone videos on Telegram every day from across Eastern and Southeastern Ukraine. Ukrainian numbers may not be exact, but Russian troops are dying in large numbers. And in many cases, Russian troops retreat leaving their dead and wounded behind. So they would not be buried in Russia, and as a result, this organization will not find a record of them being buried.. The wounded being left to bleed out will likely lower the 3:1 wounded-to-killed ratio.
Tbh, none of us is able to verify neither side's numbers. The only thing we can do, is look at the undeniable facts, apply logical thinkig and make our conclusions based on this.
I appreciate this realistic view of the situation. I would be interested if you could discuss the long term costs of injured soldiers. Obviously not everyone returns from war needing long term medical treatment, but many do. Russia is burning through cash reserves while increasing war spending. Taking care of 100,000 people in hospitals is not free. Even if corners are being cut with care it's still a burden on the medical system.
Haven’t the Russians been sending conscripts non-stop to Ukraine? They are not limited to the mobilized from the fall period. Everyone starting his mandatory military service is required to serve in Ukraine if necessary, and that is why there is a constant flow of new cannon fodder. They have even made the service calls digital now so men cannot claim they did not receive it via mail at a specific address.
Hello Mr. Nielsen, I enjoy your videos with clear realistic analyses. Great accent and voice. There is one question about this war that puzzles me. Russia almost won when they took over Antonov airport. In the West there was panic about Russia attacking the NATO if they would have a quick victory. My question is, would that have happened if Russia would have got a quick win over Ukrain? Kind regards, David
Hey guys. Here's some honest info for you. Ukraine has lost approx 250,000 killed or injured. Compared to Russia's 50,000. Russia is not running low on men. Ukraine is. Russia isn't low on ammo. Ukraine is. Whatever they claim is happening in Russia. Is actually happening to Ukraine.
The Mediazona numbers are interesting in the sense that over the course of the invasion Russia has lost around 50 soldiers per day over 400 days. But in the last 2 weeks, they have lost closer to 120 per day. That suggests the Ukrainian strategy of bleeding out Russia in Bakhmut is working. Another 3-4 weeks of the status quo and Ukraine will be in a far stronger position to launch their counteroffensive.
I love how western propagandists constantly try and gaslight everyone. The meat grinder strategy for Bakhmut was spelled out BY THE F*CKING RUSSIANS about 4 months before anyone on the western side started using the word « meat grinder ». Usually in the coverage of this war, a good rule of thumb is to systematically assume that, when anyone is describing anything bad about Russia, they are really talking about Ukraine and just reversing it.
Someone on another channel mentioned something about Russia’s materiel that I think also applies to it’s personnel: Nations don’t usually lose wars because they suddenly “run out” of something. They become “supply constrained” so they can’t get enough ammo, food or troops to the front at a rate needed to keep advancing or even defend what they have taken. They never run out completely in an absolute sense, but they are still undone by shortages. It’s all very well to count up tanks and shells that you could potentially repair or restore and people you can mobilize but training people (even by mobik standards) equipping them and getting those tanks ready to go takes a lot of money, manpower and time. Russia has been squandering all those things since this started.
Russian war fighting doctrine is why the expended 20,000 to 60,000 shells/day from March 22 thru August 22. Then after that only expended 10,000 to 15,000 shells/day after that. What changed? Plus they have not have any significant land gains since September 22, only huge land losses. Why? Something changed. Less ammo and manpower?
Haven't you heard or seen the violent war Israel has and still raging on innocent and unarmed Palestinians and Ukrainians??, Or you're just a hypocrite who is blind to Israel's fascist agenda??
@@davidarchibald50 As long as US, Israel, NATO (North Atlantic Terrorist Organisation) exist, the world will not be peaceful. Russia should remain vigilant.
So realistically, who would have won this war without a 'constant' supply of more and more weapons and ammo from The West, and who would have won very quickly using their OWN resources? Do you seriously think a divided Europe and US can keep this shit up against a determined and fully justified, utterly provoked and pissed off Russia with a ton of resources and cannon fodder? -- You are just another delusional Useful Idiot US lackey fuelling the bankruptcy and ruiniation of Russia, Europe, The UK and of course UKRAINE.. There is no way Russia will or SHOULD stop until either NATO agrees never to expand into Ukraine or Russia has partitioned Ukraine from the Ukraine, Belarus, Russian border join point in the North to Transnistria in the South. -- If you don't stand up to The US they'll bleed you dry and financially rape you to death. Russia already experienced this under the Western Muppet Yeltzin, and now The Ukraine is under Zelensky,
Konstantin from Inside Russia (Ironic name since he's now in Usbekistan) has said that among his other russian refugee friends who fled the war, a lot of their relatives and friends are still being mobiilized. The mobilization didn't end, it seems to keep going, but silently so that the men and women aren't too worried about it.
@@Jakob_DK According to him and a few others, the President of Russia has to officially declare the Mobilization to be over and sign a document that it has ended, otherwise it continues. Putin was asked by a reporter a few months back if he would sign it, but Putin just replied that its not necessary.
It didn't end, but they need to mobilize something on the scale of 25-40 thousands men per month, and they've been mobilizing something on the scale of 5-10 thousands per month.
Well this aged well 😂😂😂 it really goes to show how biased and weak RUclipsrs spouting this type of msm theme are - after a couple years you look back and see just how ridiculous their output is
Interesting way of analyzing the numbers but from a tactical or strategic standpoint a lot has been left out of the equation. What must be factored in is the types of losses, in other words, what percentage of the officer/NCO corps has been lost? It is very difficult to replace these types of losses, especially in terms of experience. Overall, training of these mobilized troops has been reported to be poor to non-existent so it's like a negative force multiplier. Further mobilizations will only become successively less productive as the pool of those with military experience, or those in the younger age brackets is exhusted. Training aside, there is a significant difference in battlefield performance, physical stamina and endurance between the 18-28 year olds, and those above that group. These factors would apply across the board however, when it comes to the more technical military specialities, it will be near impossible to substitute any of the newly mobilized for any job that requires much more than a few months training, and in the modern military, these technical positions represent a disproportionate percentage of what could be called "lethality" or factors that are considered "force multipliers".
Another way to estimate the number of dead/kia would be to use the Oryx numbers of total vechicle losses in ukraine since the beginning of the war, currently Russia have lost 10k pieces of equipment, you dont loose that much without having a big number of dead/wounded soldiers.
Excellent point. Well I asked ChatGPT (lol) for the ratios of past wars => Iraq War / Afghan war have a ~1:10 ratio, so if you lose 10k vehicles, using this rule of thumb, that would result in 100k soldiers lost.
That's a valid strategy for calculating approximate confirmed losses, but I've lost count of the number of videos I've watched on Telegram of russian trenches and surrounding areas full to the brim of dead russian and wagner soldiers. The numbers are absolutely mind blowing! So as always, I think we take all sets of numbers and find the median.
@@mdumisenihlophe4001 thats everything they have confirmed losses on, including UAVs, same goes for russian numbers, thats everything that is Visually confirmed, For instance of those numbers Ukraine have lost 479 Tanks While Russia have lost 1927 Tanks.
I have to mention that for long distances Ukrainian don’t count the ru losses. I have been watching the ru casualties list and when hit a big number of ru soldiers deep in line they don’t even add it. They count what they achieve and what they see with their drones in the daily report.
Hi Anders. Great video, as always. A question that you may touch upon at some time: How is the morale of the two sides? We have heard much about the Russians having an absolutely dismal morale, but how do you see this? I have read many sources, but I often wonder if those sources are 100% objective. Therefore, I would really value your opinion.
@@micheleabate146 Well, Ukraine is defending, and to win they only need to grind down the Russian army. For Russia to win, they do need to take land because they're on borrowed time, every day they get weaker while Ukraine gets stronger. The main reason Russia hasn't taken much land at all in the last 9 months or so is because of combat compliance being extremely low due to poor morale; nobody is willing to fight, hence they need to rely on penal troops. Besides, in the start of the war when Russia lost almost all of their land gains, you retards were saying that the objective of war "isn't to take land". Now it is?
@@micheleabate146 The Ukrainians are holding, waiting for advanced weaponry from the free-world before beginning their offensive. This is all openly understood by the allies. I’m surprised you don’t understand it 🤔 pozor rosii Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
@@justinswanton287Training, motivation, superiors - all are worse than in the professional contract army. Then it comes equipment - from tanks to (lack of) boots and tourniquets.
A known, but sad and cynical fact, is that its better to badly wound soldiers than kill them. The military thinking here is that a wounded soldier ties up resources. In the case of the Wagner group they may just leave them but overall the attrition remains as a factor alongside the impact on tying up resources to a degree.
It's not just ChVK Vagnera who just leave their wounded behind, the regular Russian army do it as well. Just like there's the occasional prisoner swap, same happens to recovered bodies...
I’m not sure, the word KIA resonates much stronger than badly wounded. The political consequences from a high number of KIA is massively bigger than the same number of badly wounded. Even in financial aspect, if a country care enough to spend resources to badly wounded soldiers they usually spend comparable if not more amount of money and resources to the soldier’s family.
Could it be that Russia continued to "mobilize" (aka force against their will) men into the army after the initial announced mobilization? As in, they said they'd mobilize 300,000, but they actually mobilized say 500,000? This to get more manpower while limiting unrest in Russia itself.
Always an objective analysis of this unfortunate war. I wish Mr. Puck Nielsen would upload more frequently but he does have a rather important day job.
@@bobvulture6547 Saying a nation of 135 million people is running out of manpower is a ludicrous cope. Ukraine has been taking similar, probably higher losses with a population a fraction of Russia's. How about focus on trying to save Ukraine instead of coming up with nonsense about Russian manpower.
@@td6460 Yes, because all of those people are men of the right age with sufficient training and materiel who are willing to lay down their lives in a war that Putin initiated for no good reason whatsoever. Sure.
Certainly a very important point at the very end: Ukraine is constantly mobilising, not in waves like RF. That also has the advantage of being able to constantly train and equip the new manpower.
Man power is good and all but you still need supplies and training in order to make them effective. Imagine being a software engineer or janitor getting shipped off to England for a 5 week training course, there's no way you'll be as effective as someone with 6 months+ of experience. Not only that but you're going off fighting with a dwindling supply of equipment against an army that has a 10 to 1 artillery advantage.
They are just dying, you can call it whatever you want... Until the last Ukranian!! NATO doesn't care about how they die, only care about how many russians kill, don't forget that. USA don't care about human life, just how to kill its enemy, they used Ukrania for its own benefits as always do. Maybe you can understand it better if i call it by the name USA like to use. This is just a PROXY WAR!
Ukraine is GROWING its army. Yes, it must replenish casualties, but Ukraine ALWAYS had to do more mobilization simply because the army has to grow, but you can't mobilize every potential soldier at once. The capacity for training is limited, and your logistics also need time to adjust for more soldiers. And mobilization is something you do EARLY. It's not a trump card to keep up your sleeve for later. The earlier you do it, the better organized your army becomes, and the more experienced your mobilized soldiers become. Russia mobilizing late means unmotivated Russian greenhorn mobiks having to go up against motivated veteran mobilized Ukrainian soldiers with many months or even years of experience. That's how you end up with Kharkiv: Forcibly conscripted LPR/DPR mobiks shattering and fleeing when motivated and experienced Ukrainian soldiers launched an organized offensive. It also means Russia not HAVING those mobiks at all when it really counts: When Ukraine goes on the counter when the ground dries. Mobilizing a million mobiks doesn't matter if Russia has already lost the areas it wants to use them to defend.
Meanwhile, Russia is making steady advances in Bakhmut which they might complete before the Ukranian counter offensive. This reminds me when the Western mainstream media said that Russia was running out of missiles only for them to use more in the upcoming months.
I haven't seen any indicators that the Russians are rotating soldiers to and from combat. To be able to sustain action over the longer period, a soldier has to have a reasonable expectation of survival over a fixed period of time. If the time in combat is interminable then morale will plummet due to the expectation of the inevitability of death. I expect Russian formations to prove brittle when faced with a concentrated offensive thrust.
To mobilize more soldiers, wouldn't that also require enough equipment and the capacity to train the newly recruited soldiers to see substancial progress on the battlefield?
And supply. And a strategy. And tactics. Which none of it Russia has. Which again is why so many soldiers die. Which again is why they need more mobilization. Russia is done. The only question is, if they are going to push the button or not, to take us with them while the are going down.
At this point this seems to be a "nice to have" for russia and no longer a requirement. There seem to be a lot of barely equiped fresh recruits involved in russian assaults.
Ideer you are right. But Anders chose ONLY to answer the personnel question, this time around. He usually only does short videos in wich he has something clear to say about ONE important issue.
To me it seems like Russia can't afford to train them or supply them properly at the front, so they count on having strength in numbers rather than being effective. I do expect the figures regarding Russian losses being closer to the truth than the figures reported by Russia. But it's impossible to get good figures regardless of how you do it. Deaths occurring due to disease and malnutrition are also key items to consider.
Thank you SO much for another great upload. Appreciate the work you do, and that you use your skills as a communicator and analyst, giving us your perspective. Tak for at du gider bruge noget af din fritid på at give os dit perspektiv - du er bare en super NØRD og det er så fedt..
Excellent general explanation. I have people trying to argue with me that Russia has only lost 16,000 men because of the BBC/Mediazona number. Meanwhile, not only is that number out of date, but it is the literal floor of the actual possible number. Does that number even include Wagner losses? Thanks for the video!
@@nicolaszan1845 That is incorrect. A whole third of those numbers come from non-traditional army groups like PMC Wagner. It does not include any from the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics.
I think it's a worthwhile point as you made it. Our impression here in Ukraine is that losses are not small, but that there's no real political (or even economic) reason not to mobilize more. The limitation here is more hardware than personnel. I have the feeling that while Ukrainian numbers have stagnated, we're going to have a better trained force (with the exception of the air force). Without the quantity of heavy vehicles and guns, there isn't much need for the quantity of manpower.
The value of what might be called crummy or poorly-equipped troops should not be underestimated. These troops can be hold the line in quiet sectors to free up better troops for important battles. As units in being, and as threats only, they can tie down enemy troops. In the last resort they can also fight, using numbers alone as a weapon -- and in some places, due to the nature of the combat, such as in forests and in cities, they are almost as good as anyone else. It's been a big mistake so far that Ukraine has not mobilized many more men and women to fight in this war, which they could surely do based on the size of their population, and whom they could easily supply while fighting on home soil, and in my opinion this perverse reticence has cost them many lives and will lengthen this horrible war.
Polar Vortex, what, have you been living under a rock? Ukraine has majorly mobilized, in multiple and ongoing rounds. It does not have the same manpower-supply problems Russia has.
@@polarvortex3294 Mobilizing troops strains the economy, and it is boring and stressful to sit in a trench and do nothing so if it can be avoided then it is preferable to avoid war exhaustion and to avoid the battered Ukrainian economy of falling even deeper into trouble. And Ukraine does not have weapons for more troops, and even the army it have today has a shortage of training. And on top of that is it a logistical burden to keep more troops supplied with food and ammunition in the field. So its better to just fill up the ranks in the army with volunteers and avoid drafting men for a while. As losses goes up it will become more and more important to replace them with new men who are not always so happy about going to war, but the Ukrainian army will remain in fighting shape for some time. Doing like Russia and sending untrained, badly motivated mobikis to the frontline who are depressed and complain all the time will just drain the fighting morale also for the old professional army. Europe is now training 60.000 Ukrainian troops - and many of them are trained on advanced weapon systems like Patriot missiles and Leopard 2 tanks and such. So there will not be much training available for new troops. 60.000 men is just a small fraction of armies numbering hundreds of thousands of men.
When attacking a defensive line, the attacker usually needs 3 soldiers for every defender to have combat power parity. But Ukraine has an equipment and training advantage. So Russia should expect to need 5 to 1 to have parity. However, Ukraine is also fighting for survival and their homes, while the Russians aren't particularly motivated, so let's say the Russians need 7 to 1 to have parity with Ukrainian defenders. So then, to win, let's make it tough for them and say Russia needs 9 soldiers for every 1 Ukrainian defender. So, by this back of the napkin approach, for every 100k soldiers Ukraine brings east to defend the line, Russia would need to mobilize, train, and equip 900k men. With 7MM military age Russian men available, if Putin takes a totalitarian turn and puts the entire country on a war footing, conducts a coercive mobilization, and sends them all West, Ukraine will need to train and equip 1M soldiers to have parity with such a force. These are huge numbers.
@@nattygsbord, well said. And the hardware shortage is severe - I don't mean just tanks or IFVs, things as simple as 60 mm or 80 mm mortars are scarce.
Samson's doctrine bringing down pillars, we die all. Why wait to be killed inside your house. Come out square with the enemy outside. Our military motto.
Zelenskyi isn't trying to reclaim.. And so doesn't Putin. Zelenskyi is a US puppet who is trying to survive and get rich with mainly help from US ... Putin is trying to push back "silent" (Maidan) NATO expansion.
We can’t never know the exact numbers but one thing is certain, the Russian dead are VERY HIGH. Reason 1, Russia often uses human waves, reason 2 Putin had to mobilize a new army to replace the first one, reason 3 poor quality troops don’t live long
1) no they’re not, because human waves aren’t a thing. They weren’t in WWII and they aren’t now. 2) only ~100k mobilized troops are even present near the frontline. ~200k have not been deployed at all and are still training in the rear 3) at this point most of Ukraines troops are poor quality. 3 weeks of training for a raw recruit does not make you a super (or even effective) soldier.
People talk about how Russia has these “massive manpower and resource reserve… which is entirely true… Russia can indeed draw on a very large supply of manpower. However very rarely is it the case that a government will use their ENTIRE population in a war economy setting. Ukraine is fighting for its survival so they are willing to use all of their resources in order to not be destroyed Russia itself isn’t in one of these wars for survival (technically they aren’t even at war) so Ukraine doesn’t need to “destroy Russia” they need to destroy the army that was assembled
Russia has half the population of the United States. Subtract the elderly, children, disabled, etc. and the number of men available is not nearly what people think. This is Russia, not the Soviet Union. No Ukranians, Estonians, Latvians, etc. are available for Russia like they were for the Soviet Union.
And even if Russia wanted to mobilize its entire population, who is going to train all those men? Most of the trainers are dead. And how is Russia going to equip them? Are they going to open up the reserves from WWI or the Russo-Japanese war this time?
@@kryzoxy1 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣That's why they are deporting 1000 children to ruSSia in very bad conditions, taking them away from their parents where they are forced to sig the ruSSian anthem. And if they don't do that they are punished. Horror stories are coming out from children who were getting repatriated from ruSSia to UA!You are talking of +/-2500 civilians that were killed during those 8 years of fighting between Ukrainian military and the DNR and LNR sponsored and armed by ruSSia. And do you call the maybe 500k of ruSSian and Ukrainian soldiers and the Ukrainian civilians in proportion of those 2,5K ? You are crasy man!
More alarming for the Russians, I think is that the first-wave of mobilized conscripts could not be adequately armed and equipped. There were numerous video clips from the mobilized personnel showing sub-standard gear and rusted and poorly-preserved weapons. What would a second mobilization force have to contend with? Mosin- Nagants?
I would add that "partial mobilisation" never ended, it has slowed down once 300k goal was reached, but there are still reports of people being continuously summoned to at least update their details, go trough refresher training and then many of the end-up being sent to Ukraine. I don't know the numbers, I doubt anyone except of ruzzian MOD knows the numbers, but I would assume it must be in 10s if not 100s of thousands since the official "end" of mobilisation. As well ruzzian are still taking people out of prisons... and unlike wagner they don't care if one has volunteered... So yes - since "partial mobilisation" the intake has slowed down, but not completely stopped.
That's not how it works as the frontline grunts and the ones in the back supporting face different rates of attrition for obvious reasons. If a group of Russians gets killed on the frontline that also frees the logistics meant to support them so they can be used to support the next group of mobilized being sent to the meatgrinder instead.
It is not just the numbers degrading, but quality also. MOBIK< Spetznaz, T54 tanks < T90. They could only counterbalance this with further increasing numbers, but they do not / can not do it. Ukraine is getting well trained and equipped new troops, and modern armor. The forces shifted for Ukraine favor. I bet russia will fail against UKR counterattack, even in better defensive positions, it will not help them enough (abd Nato satelites will find the week spots for the breaktrough)
For a start Russia mobilised around 370,000 including volunteers. They continue to accept volunteers. LPR and DPR continue to recruit. Russia is not loosing anywhere near close to 500 men per day. They have a 10:1 artillery advantage, around a 20:1 armour advantage and almost complete dominance of the air. There are almost no casualties outside of the line of contact. Russia has advanced slowly and methodically, while minimising losses. When they are attacked in vunerable positions they withdraw. The way that Wagner conducts assaults is through small positional battles supported by massive artillery. The majority of casualties would be Wagner, since their job is assault. If Russia was suffering 500 casualties a day then Wagner would have vanished as a fighting force months ago.
Russia didn't really end the mobilisation, they announced it, but to actually end it Putin needs to signs a document that says so. So, they are just quietly mobilizing to this day bit by bit.
Watch DPA, Weeb Union, NWE war reports, History Legend.... etc to get real war updates. Watch this "The wheelchair General" if you only want to entertain your small brain 🤣🤣🤣🤣
Excellent presentation, thank you for your insight! I really enjoy your videos and I consider them to be an accurate and balanced presentation of the facts.
You have lost massive amount of soldiers if you call up 300000 soldiers and your goal was 500000 .and now they are trying to call up 147000 .I believe the Ukrainian numbers
One of the complaints we often hear from Russian troops is that their officers and higher-ups are not allowing them to recover the bodies of their fallen comrades. That’s why 19k - the amount of Russians who have actually been buried - is definitely a major undercount of the total dead Russians. I wouldn’t be surprised if the real number is close to double that, so ~40k. Man, Ukraine now has more sunflower food than it could ever need - and conversely, Russia has far fewer men than it needs. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦🇺🇸
I think you're sorely mistaken if you trust Russia or Putya, that it's just 300000 that they mobilized. Or that they stopped mobilizing. What they said is that they reached their (then) goal. So yes, even despite that it wasn't just 300k they mobilized, they do indeed have shortages, and have had for a long time by now.
The Russian MOD stated itself that about 80.000 people volunteered in addition to the 300k that were planned. If you add to that the people who were part of the military in February 2022 but ended there contracts around August and went back to civilian life (which they could do, since this is not technically considered a war in Russia) being recalled into service, then yes. It’s more like 420-430k troops.
I doubt russian government or high command has accurate number of soldier lost. The problem is the same with the equipment storage, it's numbers, quality and funds spending. Also lower rank officers are trying to make their reports "better looking" for their command.
When you want to make an estimate of Russian manpower depletion, you need to consider captured soldiers and desertions too. The captured is probably kept secret, but desertions could be estimated on experience from other wars. An army also loses men to internal corruption- you pay someone to NOT go to war. These 3 numbers combined, is probably higher than the number of actual killed- which means that Russia allready has a serious manpower short!
Not to mention dead buried russians tanks collapsing trenches.Try counring them....Only way is the amount sent to the front and the amound they are trying to recruit.Equals the amount lost.God knows how many not counted....
As I remember, Budanov said that Russia has hidden mobilization and it was mobilizing 20k a month. This argument doesn't disprove that Russians will have manpower shortage, but it will probably be less severe than in October
Analysis paralysis! Russia obviously doesn’t have the horsepower to move at a reasonable rate. They did not have a capable enough military nor reasonable tactics to initiate and dominate.Countries ruled by dictators often fall victim to the problems a lack of freedom presents and singing to the choir rears its ugly head. A three day operation has extended to beyond 400 days at this point. What is clear - Russia does not have enough resources nor capability. The fact that quantity in itself is a quality is one thing. But as can be seen the effectiveness of low quality quantity negates its usefulness. Russia is on its way to becoming a failed state. Stop counting, the lack of progress shows Russia is simply incapable for a number of reasons.
The second they started bombing civilians and kidnapping children they stopped being soldiers and became terrorists. That said, they lost most of their trained personnel, so what's left are untrained terrorists. Slava Ukraine 🇳🇱❤🇺🇦
Throughout history, soldiers have deliberately inflicted pain and death upon civilians and they are still called soldiers. Terrorists are just soldiers fighting for a common cause without an official country behind them, by using terror on civilians and military, as a weapon. I understand the Russians have committed warcrimes but we shouldn't mix them up with real terrorists, just for the sake of not spreading wrong statements
How many fallen soldiers are given a formal burial at home ? If you know Russian propaganda you should strongly multiply the number claimed by authorities to get the real pictures.
I heard Ukrainians know the forbidden death spell while Russians all have broken wands and hand-me-down robes. There is no way Rusdia will win the quiddich game!
Really enjoyed the video. I think disease is another important factor to mention. If you put 300,000 complete strangers from all over the country together, they are going to get very sick. If those sick people are then kept in subpar conditions(like the Russian winter) with poor clothing and lack of health care, and proper diet etc. And then you add in rampant alcoholism, The result is a lot less than 300,000 men 😂
@@mariaf.6601 Because it's totally detached from reality. The Russian army that was sent in during the first wave of the operation, the army that was outnumbered 5 to 1 seemingly, that army managed to take nearly 20% of Ukraine territory. And with the recent mobilization within Russia itself, now Russian army is outnumbering the Ukrainians, and even worse, The Russian are at a defending position that they have been fortifying for nearly a year. It's basic warfare math, the only side running out of troop is the Ukrainian, because all Ukrainian civilians are fleeing, and only the Ukrainian sides are launching offensives. Launching offensives always cost more lives than defending position, especially launching a poorly equipped offensives. You need 3 times as much resources to launch an offense against an equal size defense, and Ukraine is running out of them. NATO countries do not have 24/7 arms production factories, unlike the ones that was put into work from the first day of the war in Russia.
@@ulrikschackmeyer848 I have been watching Perun for a year now. I was interested to see what Anders thought of his original analysis premobilisation and how it has played out over the last year. I think he was spot on but the rise of the milblogers in Moskovia is an unexpected wrinkle.
What facts? Serious question because he didn't use any. This was pure opinion based of what he admitted are unreliable sources. How does that lead to any facts?🤦♂️
Ok, Groomer, how not? He cited estimate sources both high and low, explaining as much, and that the exact numbers don't matter for his point---only that "high attrition rates" do (which all numbers noted support), whatever those specifics may be. He then quite reasonably selected a middling value to compute an example estimate.
@@jamesedwards6173 Answering 'trolls and the like' - even with the intent to refute then - just boosts their algorithms. Just saying. Otherwise we are in full agreement.
Hi Anders, and thanks for another great analyzing episode. I guess that the previous mobilization efforts were not popular. Thus, is it not possible that there is no official announcement will be made this time, and instead citizens will be recruited anyway? In the short time (phase 3), it makes logically sense, with announcement of nuclear capability in Belarus. Considered the dire situation on the ground. It's just a matter of time, and depending on how the 2023 campaigns evolves, until this threat is used (to escalate) to scare off some major supplies to Ukraine. We will see who stands fast, and who will bow to the pressure/escalation.
Pootin never officially ended mobilization and there are rumours that it is still ongoing, but not in large amounts. It is also possible that ruzzia will force conscripts to sign a contract when their conscription ends.
Of cause I find the loss of ALL human lives in war appalling! But let's just have a look at your suggestion, shall we? From a purely theoretical point of classic utilitarian philosophy, shall we? So, Russia lobs off a tactical nuke. Perhaps just into the Black Sea, a shot across the bow to NATO, so to speak. USA have promised 'catastrophic consequences' to Russia, if they do. Taking out the ENTIRE Black Sea fleet in one fell swoop, has been mentioned. Taking out EVERY Russian position in ALL of Ukraine, in a matter of a few days, has been mentioned. Not a single attack on Russia proper, though! Let's continue our thought experiment, shall we? Ukraine walks in and reclaims ALL of Ukraine, probably with highly increased support from NATO members and others. Ukraine is fast-tracked into EU and NATO. Was that what you had in mind? Again from a purely theoretical Utilitarian philosophy point, of cause! Was that the outcome that we should all fear? Just wondering?
@@ulrikschackmeyer848 Let's add an outlier. Is there any guarantee that Ukraine has no atomic/nuclear capability after a year of total war? The science is over a century old, the technology is eighty years old - and many smaller, less viable, less technically proficient nations are 'nuclear powers'. Total war has a way of focusing the mind. Remember that Ukraine has the ability to process atomic energy waste into weapons grade materiel - or, at least they did back in the day.
Russia will not "scare off" supplies to Ukraine by threatening nukes (for the billionth time). Not only has it chronically been "the boy who cried wolf", and not only does it know the backlash would be catastrophic for it, but also the West understands that acquiescing to such threats only tells despots the world round _that it works,_ thereby propagating the behavior more widely. And, that's a much bigger problem in the long run. Possession of nuclear weapons does not mean a nation just gets to do whatever it wants, simply by threatening to employ them.
Did not age well. Just shows you can’t trust these channels that are very Ukraine biased for proper information.
yeah he is unfortunately extremely biased and straight out lying.
Your first obvious tipoff should be the nordic soyboy on the screen
ukraine mobilize 20k-30k ppl every month and that is why they have enough ppl in units and even form new brigades.
Sign of manpower shortage: trained artillery personnel being handed rifles and ordered to serve as infantry
Insightful and sober analysis from Mr Puck Nielson.
We need more of this on RUclips instead of all the clickbait.
Go watch Perun
We already have too much propaganda. A country that now has about 20million people under its control has no manpower shortage but the enemy that has 200 million has shortages? Wake up! All this propaganda is just to justify more resources poured down a sink hole. You want insight? Go to Col Doug Macgreggor to find out what is going on.
Niel-SEN, not Niel-SON, please. That would make him a Swede, something Danes don't like AT ALL! Thank you, and have a fine day.
Insightful?, Sober? His so-called "analysis" is ridiculously, fatally flawed. Check my comment for details...if you're interested and open-minded.
@@jamesnation9889 boo hoo hoo I am jealous
I understand that time is limited and that quality video takes efforts to be produced but your interpretation of the situation is so valuable I hope you can find time to put the effort doing more videos they are so appreciated 🎉❤😊
Please respect that he is not just any youtuber living off this. His day job is being a naval officer in the Danish Defence Academy - doing exactly the same thing! Unless you have acces to military secrets yourself it doesn't get any better that this. He doesn't lay the entire puzzle for you, but you can always trust him to make the best possible pieces!
He also recently put out a video explaining that he would be posting less often, due to other responsibilities. Go watch it.
It is not a given that the Russians know the true number of casualties.
Casualty collection and tracking is a complex process.
The corruption revealed by the equipment and supply line shambles makes it very likely they haven't a clue in my opinion and probably even a calculated estimate is not reaching Putin!
Keep 'em coming, Puckles! I know you're a busy man but yours are among the best of the various commentator updates.
Very good and thorough analysis as usual! Thanks and happy eastern from Germany
As always, informative and serious content from you Anders! Glad to see someone on youtube questioning numbers etc. Glory to Ukraine!
haahahahaha that was a good joke
Great analysis. Again.
Another point is that the 300,000 new soldiers are not all front line combat troops. That includes a lot of people in support roles. Of course the Russian military already had mechanics and such, so if the 300k were primarily intended for combat then it wouldn't be the normal ratio you'd expect in a modern military, but definitely not all of them were intended to be infantry.
The Ukrainians have also been targeting supply dumps and repair depots which must imply the loss of trained specialist personnel.
Ive heard a lot of them are also placed in behind the line positions and such, to make up for all the empty spaces that redirected russian soldiers left.
Very true!
If you look at other force organisations charts, like fx US 3rd Armored Corps, A LOT of the formations and units are support roles. Signal companies, field hospitals, rear echelons of maintenance and supply.
A rule of thumb is normally for every frontline soldier at least 3 are in the rear/support roles. (And thats probably low for NATO standard units)
Thats the same with all armies.
i guess 1 'real' fighter to 7-10 support personal
more important, russia cant resupply ammunition, vehicles heavy arms and weapon systems anymore while Ukraine is being resupplied continuously by Europe and US. Endex for the orcs.
Need an update. Russia has the upper hand at the moment and does not appear to be losing 1500 troops per day. Also, Russia has dry powder as Putin has not issued a full mobilization order, which would lead to more ethnic Russians being forcibly drafted.
Don’t forget that lot of Russia dead are buried in the battle field or are Lost in the battle field blown to smithereens. And many are unrecoverable and unidentifiable. It happens in wars.
That's MiA category
Another propagandist 😂😂
@@mdumisenihlophe4001 just like you Russian troll.😂😂😂😝😝😜
For western estimate to be anywhere close to accurate, that would have to be the case for 95% of Russian casualties. If you believe that, you’ll probably believe anything to be honest….
@@mdumisenihlophe4001 lol you actually think they are recovering bodies, sad.
Subscribed easy and concise. Good commentary!
Amazing analisis. Really enjoyed the video. Thank you.
Great content as always Anders.
thanks very much 👍
As always a very level-headed analysis of a very complex problem.
Ukraine has lost 200,000 acc. to Col. Macgregor, with the wounded ans missed it is 500,000.
@@schiefeebene3215 Col. McGregor is paid by RT... He's full of BS
@@schiefeebene3215 How would he know? He's not very good in analyse and predictions.
@@Carlskwell Where has he been wrong? You never listened to him.
Schiefe Ebene, is there a good reason you're copy/pasting exactly the same ridiculous comment all over the place, typos and all?
Ukrainian military units post drone videos on Telegram every day from across Eastern and Southeastern Ukraine. Ukrainian numbers may not be exact, but Russian troops are dying in large numbers.
And in many cases, Russian troops retreat leaving their dead and wounded behind. So they would not be buried in Russia, and as a result, this organization will not find a record of them being buried..
The wounded being left to bleed out will likely lower the 3:1 wounded-to-killed ratio.
Tbh, none of us is able to verify neither side's numbers.
The only thing we can do, is look at the undeniable facts, apply logical thinkig and make our conclusions based on this.
Good to hear from Sierra Leone, west africa
I appreciate this realistic view of the situation. I would be interested if you could discuss the long term costs of injured soldiers.
Obviously not everyone returns from war needing long term medical treatment, but many do.
Russia is burning through cash reserves while increasing war spending. Taking care of 100,000 people in hospitals is not free. Even if corners are being cut with care it's still a burden on the medical system.
Haven’t the Russians been sending conscripts non-stop to Ukraine? They are not limited to the mobilized from the fall period. Everyone starting his mandatory military service is required to serve in Ukraine if necessary, and that is why there is a constant flow of new cannon fodder. They have even made the service calls digital now so men cannot claim they did not receive it via mail at a specific address.
Conscripts and mobilized are not the same.
Conscripts cannot fight out of borders of R. Federation , unless the war would be declared (it isn't).
Hello Mr. Nielsen, I enjoy your videos with clear realistic analyses. Great accent and voice. There is one question about this war that puzzles me. Russia almost won when they took over Antonov airport. In the West there was panic about Russia attacking the NATO if they would have a quick victory. My question is, would that have happened if Russia would have got a quick win over Ukrain? Kind regards, David
Hey guys. Here's some honest info for you. Ukraine has lost approx 250,000 killed or injured. Compared to Russia's 50,000. Russia is not running low on men. Ukraine is. Russia isn't low on ammo. Ukraine is. Whatever they claim is happening in Russia. Is actually happening to Ukraine.
250 000000000000
🙈🙊🙉
The Mediazona numbers are interesting in the sense that over the course of the invasion Russia has lost around 50 soldiers per day over 400 days. But in the last 2 weeks, they have lost closer to 120 per day.
That suggests the Ukrainian strategy of bleeding out Russia in Bakhmut is working.
Another 3-4 weeks of the status quo and Ukraine will be in a far stronger position to launch their counteroffensive.
Coping in dreamland.
@@briancharters8720 You're going to be crying soon after the Russian pedoterrorist scum are routed once again.
I love how western propagandists constantly try and gaslight everyone. The meat grinder strategy for Bakhmut was spelled out BY THE F*CKING RUSSIANS about 4 months before anyone on the western side started using the word « meat grinder ».
Usually in the coverage of this war, a good rule of thumb is to systematically assume that, when anyone is describing anything bad about Russia, they are really talking about Ukraine and just reversing it.
Au contraire mon ami.
It’s the Ukraine that is taking the heaviest losses.
Stop trying to sell your BS
Just passing by to have a LoL. 😅😅😅
Lol.
Someone on another channel mentioned something about Russia’s materiel that I think also applies to it’s personnel: Nations don’t usually lose wars because they suddenly “run out” of something. They become “supply constrained” so they can’t get enough ammo, food or troops to the front at a rate needed to keep advancing or even defend what they have taken. They never run out completely in an absolute sense, but they are still undone by shortages.
It’s all very well to count up tanks and shells that you could potentially repair or restore and people you can mobilize but training people (even by mobik standards) equipping them and getting those tanks ready to go takes a lot of money, manpower and time. Russia has been squandering all those things since this started.
Russian war fighting doctrine is why the expended 20,000 to 60,000 shells/day from March 22 thru August 22. Then after that only expended 10,000 to 15,000 shells/day after that. What changed? Plus they have not have any significant land gains since September 22, only huge land losses. Why? Something changed. Less ammo and manpower?
Haven't you heard or seen the violent war Israel has and still raging on innocent and unarmed Palestinians and Ukrainians??, Or you're just a hypocrite who is blind to Israel's fascist agenda??
or logistics win wars...great point
@@davidarchibald50
As long as US, Israel, NATO (North Atlantic Terrorist Organisation) exist, the world will not be peaceful. Russia should remain vigilant.
So realistically, who would have won this war without a 'constant' supply of more and more weapons and ammo from The West, and who would have won very quickly using their OWN resources? Do you seriously think a divided Europe and US can keep this shit up against a determined and fully justified, utterly provoked and pissed off Russia with a ton of resources and cannon fodder?
--
You are just another delusional Useful Idiot US lackey fuelling the bankruptcy and ruiniation of Russia, Europe, The UK and of course UKRAINE.. There is no way Russia will or SHOULD stop until either NATO agrees never to expand into Ukraine or Russia has partitioned Ukraine from the Ukraine, Belarus, Russian border join point in the North to Transnistria in the South.
--
If you don't stand up to The US they'll bleed you dry and financially rape you to death. Russia already experienced this under the Western Muppet Yeltzin, and now The Ukraine is under Zelensky,
Konstantin from Inside Russia (Ironic name since he's now in Usbekistan) has said that among his other russian refugee friends who fled the war, a lot of their relatives and friends are still being mobiilized. The mobilization didn't end, it seems to keep going, but silently so that the men and women aren't too worried about it.
I think that is a real important point. Why trust the Russians on the number of mobilized and that it has ended?
@@Jakob_DK According to him and a few others, the President of Russia has to officially declare the Mobilization to be over and sign a document that it has ended, otherwise it continues. Putin was asked by a reporter a few months back if he would sign it, but Putin just replied that its not necessary.
It didn't end, but they need to mobilize something on the scale of 25-40 thousands men per month, and they've been mobilizing something on the scale of 5-10 thousands per month.
@@jaazz90But why are there videos of forced conscription from ukraine and not Russia? Does not make any sense.
Well this aged well 😂😂😂 it really goes to show how biased and weak RUclipsrs spouting this type of msm theme are - after a couple years you look back and see just how ridiculous their output is
This has aged very poorly
Interesting way of analyzing the numbers but from a tactical or strategic standpoint a lot has been left out of the equation. What must be factored in is the types of losses, in other words, what percentage of the officer/NCO corps has been lost? It is very difficult to replace these types of losses, especially in terms of experience. Overall, training of these mobilized troops has been reported to be poor to non-existent so it's like a negative force multiplier. Further mobilizations will only become successively less productive as the pool of those with military experience, or those in the younger age brackets is exhusted. Training aside, there is a significant difference in battlefield performance, physical stamina and endurance between the 18-28 year olds, and those above that group. These factors would apply across the board however, when it comes to the more technical military specialities, it will be near impossible to substitute any of the newly mobilized for any job that requires much more than a few months training, and in the modern military, these technical positions represent a disproportionate percentage of what could be called "lethality" or factors that are considered "force multipliers".
Another way to estimate the number of dead/kia would be to use the Oryx numbers of total vechicle losses in ukraine since the beginning of the war, currently Russia have lost 10k pieces of equipment, you dont loose that much without having a big number of dead/wounded soldiers.
Excellent point. Well I asked ChatGPT (lol) for the ratios of past wars => Iraq War / Afghan war have a ~1:10 ratio, so if you lose 10k vehicles, using this rule of thumb, that would result in 100k soldiers lost.
@@mdumisenihlophe4001 3162.
@@chrisjon is that a number of equipment Ukraine has lost?I guess you mean the ones they lost before donations right?
That's a valid strategy for calculating approximate confirmed losses, but I've lost count of the number of videos I've watched on Telegram of russian trenches and surrounding areas full to the brim of dead russian and wagner soldiers. The numbers are absolutely mind blowing! So as always, I think we take all sets of numbers and find the median.
@@mdumisenihlophe4001 thats everything they have confirmed losses on, including UAVs, same goes for russian numbers, thats everything that is Visually confirmed,
For instance of those numbers Ukraine have lost 479 Tanks While Russia have lost 1927 Tanks.
This aged like fine milk
Seeing as recruits are being sought from Africa and India, it sure did.
I have to mention that for long distances Ukrainian don’t count the ru losses. I have been watching the ru casualties list and when hit a big number of ru soldiers deep in line they don’t even add it. They count what they achieve and what they see with their drones in the daily report.
ukraine does not put out reliable Information about Russias losses as we see.
Ohhhhhhh God..... here we have another miliatry analyst Genius...... 🤣🤣🤣
Russia has also run out of class .. but that was 100 years ago ..and they are still out and badly need to re-up
Hi Anders. Great video, as always. A question that you may touch upon at some time: How is the morale of the two sides? We have heard much about the Russians having an absolutely dismal morale, but how do you see this? I have read many sources, but I often wonder if those sources are 100% objective. Therefore, I would really value your opinion.
Ask yourself when was the last time Ukraine managed to regain some lost territory and you will find out about the morale of Russian soldiers.😏
@@micheleabate146 Well, Ukraine is defending, and to win they only need to grind down the Russian army. For Russia to win, they do need to take land because they're on borrowed time, every day they get weaker while Ukraine gets stronger.
The main reason Russia hasn't taken much land at all in the last 9 months or so is because of combat compliance being extremely low due to poor morale; nobody is willing to fight, hence they need to rely on penal troops.
Besides, in the start of the war when Russia lost almost all of their land gains, you retards were saying that the objective of war "isn't to take land". Now it is?
Intercepted phone calls, prisoners of war, and defectors.
@@micheleabate146 The Ukrainians are holding, waiting for advanced weaponry from the free-world before beginning their offensive. This is all openly understood by the allies. I’m surprised you don’t understand it 🤔
pozor rosii
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
@@micheleabate146 Russian troll account with videos that purport to show election 'fraud' in the USA.
This didn't age well. 420,000 volunteers in 2023 and the army is now at 1,5 million, double its prewar strength.
But far from pre-war quality.
I'm not thinking the equipment at the moment.
@@mariaf.6601Far from prewar quality? How so?
"volunteers" 1.5 now...so these highly motivated troops should make head way to the capital by what date?
@@properjob79You mean Kiev? We'll see.
@@justinswanton287Training, motivation, superiors - all are worse than in the professional contract army.
Then it comes equipment - from tanks to (lack of) boots and tourniquets.
Well done Anders! Thank you.
I'm glad to see you amongst the viewership, Vlad. I hope you're well.
Thanks, Vlad. :-)
Wonderful to see you here, Vlad! Bless and get well. Two of my favorite 'providers'.
I love western propaganda, it's so funny 😂
A known, but sad and cynical fact, is that its better to badly wound soldiers than kill them. The military thinking here is that a wounded soldier ties up resources. In the case of the Wagner group they may just leave them but overall the attrition remains as a factor alongside the impact on tying up resources to a degree.
It's not just ChVK Vagnera who just leave their wounded behind, the regular Russian army do it as well.
Just like there's the occasional prisoner swap, same happens to recovered bodies...
They will be left behind to rot and die, even though Russia's slogan before the war was "We don't leave our people behind"
I’m not sure, the word KIA resonates much stronger than badly wounded. The political consequences from a high number of KIA is massively bigger than the same number of badly wounded. Even in financial aspect, if a country care enough to spend resources to badly wounded soldiers they usually spend comparable if not more amount of money and resources to the soldier’s family.
Reportedly the Wagner Group just kills their seriously wouned mercenaries!
It is funny to go back to your old video and compare to what is happening today
Still waiting for that mobilization.
And they've only got shovels, incredible😂
gulag prisoners beats NATO-trained army by MPL-50 secret weapon
Could it be that Russia continued to "mobilize" (aka force against their will) men into the army after the initial announced mobilization? As in, they said they'd mobilize 300,000, but they actually mobilized say 500,000? This to get more manpower while limiting unrest in Russia itself.
Always an objective analysis of this unfortunate war. I wish Mr. Puck Nielsen would upload more frequently but he does have a rather important day job.
This guy is a joke...for evidence, check out my recent message.
This guy literally works for a NATO-affiliated think tank.
That's "objective" to you?
@@td6460 Hi TD, what in this video would you point out as biased?
@@bobvulture6547 Saying a nation of 135 million people is running out of manpower is a ludicrous cope. Ukraine has been taking similar, probably higher losses with a population a fraction of Russia's. How about focus on trying to save Ukraine instead of coming up with nonsense about Russian manpower.
@@td6460
Yes, because all of those people are men of the right age with sufficient training and materiel who are willing to lay down their lives in a war that Putin initiated for no good reason whatsoever.
Sure.
Certainly a very important point at the very end: Ukraine is constantly mobilising, not in waves like RF. That also has the advantage of being able to constantly train and equip the new manpower.
It absolutely is in waves, 7 in fact since feb 24th.
@@nihluxler1890 Ok, thanks. To clarify - I meant continuing waves, as opposed to the one big wave in RF.
Man power is good and all but you still need supplies and training in order to make them effective.
Imagine being a software engineer or janitor getting shipped off to England for a 5 week training course, there's no way you'll be as effective as someone with 6 months+ of experience.
Not only that but you're going off fighting with a dwindling supply of equipment against an army that has a 10 to 1 artillery advantage.
RIP logic... keep going NAFO bois
They are just dying, you can call it whatever you want...
Until the last Ukranian!!
NATO doesn't care about how they die, only care about how many russians kill, don't forget that.
USA don't care about human life, just how to kill its enemy, they used Ukrania for its own benefits as always do.
Maybe you can understand it better if i call it by the name USA like to use.
This is just a PROXY WAR!
Russian trolls puts much effort in manipulating public opinion on this channel and on military history visualized.
There is the back log of cargo 200 on the Russian side, they don't track it completely
Thanks for another very informative video, I always look forward to seeing your new content 👍
"You go to war with the army you have, not the army you want".
How many mobilizations have Ukraine did? Does Ukraine have shortage of personnel also?
Ukraine is GROWING its army. Yes, it must replenish casualties, but Ukraine ALWAYS had to do more mobilization simply because the army has to grow, but you can't mobilize every potential soldier at once. The capacity for training is limited, and your logistics also need time to adjust for more soldiers. And mobilization is something you do EARLY. It's not a trump card to keep up your sleeve for later. The earlier you do it, the better organized your army becomes, and the more experienced your mobilized soldiers become.
Russia mobilizing late means unmotivated Russian greenhorn mobiks having to go up against motivated veteran mobilized Ukrainian soldiers with many months or even years of experience. That's how you end up with Kharkiv: Forcibly conscripted LPR/DPR mobiks shattering and fleeing when motivated and experienced Ukrainian soldiers launched an organized offensive.
It also means Russia not HAVING those mobiks at all when it really counts: When Ukraine goes on the counter when the ground dries. Mobilizing a million mobiks doesn't matter if Russia has already lost the areas it wants to use them to defend.
Meanwhile, Russia is making steady advances in Bakhmut which they might complete before the Ukranian counter offensive. This reminds me when the Western mainstream media said that Russia was running out of missiles only for them to use more in the upcoming months.
I haven't seen any indicators that the Russians are rotating soldiers to and from combat. To be able to sustain action over the longer period, a soldier has to have a reasonable expectation of survival over a fixed period of time. If the time in combat is interminable then morale will plummet due to the expectation of the inevitability of death. I expect Russian formations to prove brittle when faced with a concentrated offensive thrust.
To mobilize more soldiers, wouldn't that also require enough equipment and the capacity to train the newly recruited soldiers to see substancial progress on the battlefield?
And supply. And a strategy. And tactics. Which none of it Russia has. Which again is why so many soldiers die. Which again is why they need more mobilization. Russia is done. The only question is, if they are going to push the button or not, to take us with them while the are going down.
At this point this seems to be a "nice to have" for russia and no longer a requirement. There seem to be a lot of barely equiped fresh recruits involved in russian assaults.
Ideer you are right. But Anders chose ONLY to answer the personnel question, this time around. He usually only does short videos in wich he has something clear to say about ONE important issue.
To me it seems like Russia can't afford to train them or supply them properly at the front, so they count on having strength in numbers rather than being effective.
I do expect the figures regarding Russian losses being closer to the truth than the figures reported by Russia. But it's impossible to get good figures regardless of how you do it. Deaths occurring due to disease and malnutrition are also key items to consider.
Cannon fodder doesn't take a lot of training...
What a clown 🤡🤡🤡😂
Thank you SO much for another great upload.
Appreciate the work you do, and that you use your skills as a communicator and analyst, giving us your perspective.
Tak for at du gider bruge noget af din fritid på at give os dit perspektiv - du er bare en super NØRD og det er så fedt..
Oh boy, this aged well didn’t it? Who’s running out of soldiers now? Lmao!
Thanks
Excellent general explanation. I have people trying to argue with me that Russia has only lost 16,000 men because of the BBC/Mediazona number. Meanwhile, not only is that number out of date, but it is the literal floor of the actual possible number. Does that number even include Wagner losses? Thanks for the video!
It does not.
@@nicolaszan1845 Even more telling. Thank you.
@@nicolaszan1845 That is incorrect. A whole third of those numbers come from non-traditional army groups like PMC Wagner. It does not include any from the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics.
@@josephmoya5098 That is my mistake then. I thought I heard somewhere that the penal battalions are reported, but not so the mercenaries.
According to mediazona themselves the real number of dead is likely 2x to 2.5x higher.
I think it's a worthwhile point as you made it. Our impression here in Ukraine is that losses are not small, but that there's no real political (or even economic) reason not to mobilize more. The limitation here is more hardware than personnel. I have the feeling that while Ukrainian numbers have stagnated, we're going to have a better trained force (with the exception of the air force). Without the quantity of heavy vehicles and guns, there isn't much need for the quantity of manpower.
The value of what might be called crummy or poorly-equipped troops should not be underestimated. These troops can be hold the line in quiet sectors to free up better troops for important battles. As units in being, and as threats only, they can tie down enemy troops. In the last resort they can also fight, using numbers alone as a weapon -- and in some places, due to the nature of the combat, such as in forests and in cities, they are almost as good as anyone else. It's been a big mistake so far that Ukraine has not mobilized many more men and women to fight in this war, which they could surely do based on the size of their population, and whom they could easily supply while fighting on home soil, and in my opinion this perverse reticence has cost them many lives and will lengthen this horrible war.
Polar Vortex, what, have you been living under a rock? Ukraine has majorly mobilized, in multiple and ongoing rounds. It does not have the same manpower-supply problems Russia has.
@@polarvortex3294 Mobilizing troops strains the economy, and it is boring and stressful to sit in a trench and do nothing so if it can be avoided then it is preferable to avoid war exhaustion and to avoid the battered Ukrainian economy of falling even deeper into trouble.
And Ukraine does not have weapons for more troops, and even the army it have today has a shortage of training. And on top of that is it a logistical burden to keep more troops supplied with food and ammunition in the field.
So its better to just fill up the ranks in the army with volunteers and avoid drafting men for a while. As losses goes up it will become more and more important to replace them with new men who are not always so happy about going to war, but the Ukrainian army will remain in fighting shape for some time.
Doing like Russia and sending untrained, badly motivated mobikis to the frontline who are depressed and complain all the time will just drain the fighting morale also for the old professional army.
Europe is now training 60.000 Ukrainian troops - and many of them are trained on advanced weapon systems like Patriot missiles and Leopard 2 tanks and such. So there will not be much training available for new troops.
60.000 men is just a small fraction of armies numbering hundreds of thousands of men.
When attacking a defensive line, the attacker usually needs 3 soldiers for every defender to have combat power parity. But Ukraine has an equipment and training advantage. So Russia should expect to need 5 to 1 to have parity. However, Ukraine is also fighting for survival and their homes, while the Russians aren't particularly motivated, so let's say the Russians need 7 to 1 to have parity with Ukrainian defenders. So then, to win, let's make it tough for them and say Russia needs 9 soldiers for every 1 Ukrainian defender.
So, by this back of the napkin approach, for every 100k soldiers Ukraine brings east to defend the line, Russia would need to mobilize, train, and equip 900k men. With 7MM military age Russian men available, if Putin takes a totalitarian turn and puts the entire country on a war footing, conducts a coercive mobilization, and sends them all West, Ukraine will need to train and equip 1M soldiers to have parity with such a force. These are huge numbers.
@@nattygsbord, well said. And the hardware shortage is severe - I don't mean just tanks or IFVs, things as simple as 60 mm or 80 mm mortars are scarce.
Those numbers are mindboggling. So much suffering to reclaim someone's idea of a country's glory days.
Samson's doctrine bringing down pillars, we die all. Why wait to be killed inside your house. Come out square with the enemy outside. Our military motto.
Because they’re fake.
@@ffff7164 what's fake?.
@@wilylanet968 Russian glory days.
Zelenskyi isn't trying to reclaim.. And so doesn't Putin.
Zelenskyi is a US puppet who is trying to survive and get rich with mainly help from US ... Putin is trying to push back "silent" (Maidan) NATO expansion.
We can’t never know the exact numbers but one thing is certain, the Russian dead are VERY HIGH. Reason 1, Russia often uses human waves, reason 2 Putin had to mobilize a new army to replace the first one, reason 3 poor quality troops don’t live long
1) no they’re not, because human waves aren’t a thing. They weren’t in WWII and they aren’t now. 2) only ~100k mobilized troops are even present near the frontline. ~200k have not been deployed at all and are still training in the rear 3) at this point most of Ukraines troops are poor quality. 3 weeks of training for a raw recruit does not make you a super (or even effective) soldier.
People talk about how Russia has these “massive manpower and resource reserve… which is entirely true… Russia can indeed draw on a very large supply of manpower.
However very rarely is it the case that a government will use their ENTIRE population in a war economy setting.
Ukraine is fighting for its survival so they are willing to use all of their resources in order to not be destroyed
Russia itself isn’t in one of these wars for survival (technically they aren’t even at war) so Ukraine doesn’t need to “destroy Russia” they need to destroy the army that was assembled
Russia has half the population of the United States. Subtract the elderly, children, disabled, etc. and the number of men available is not nearly what people think. This is Russia, not the Soviet Union. No Ukranians, Estonians, Latvians, etc. are available for Russia like they were for the Soviet Union.
And even if Russia wanted to mobilize its entire population, who is going to train all those men? Most of the trainers are dead. And how is Russia going to equip them? Are they going to open up the reserves from WWI or the Russo-Japanese war this time?
@@coolbreeze2.0-mortemadfasc13 plus how many Russians of conscriptable age and fitness are now living in Turkey, Georgia, etc
@@kryzoxy1 LMAOOOOOO SAVING THEIR PEOPLE?!?!? By conscripting them and sending them to fight in Ukraine? Yea right 🤡🤡🤡🤡
@@kryzoxy1 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣That's why they are deporting 1000 children to ruSSia in very bad conditions, taking them away from their parents where they are forced to sig the ruSSian anthem. And if they don't do that they are punished. Horror stories are coming out from children who were getting repatriated from ruSSia to UA!You are talking of +/-2500 civilians that were killed during those 8 years of fighting between Ukrainian military and the DNR and LNR sponsored and armed by ruSSia. And do you call the maybe 500k of ruSSian and Ukrainian soldiers and the Ukrainian civilians in proportion of those 2,5K ?
You are crasy man!
You can't believe anything Russia says about casualties or anything else for that matter.
More alarming for the Russians, I think is that the first-wave of mobilized conscripts could not be adequately armed and equipped. There were numerous video clips from the mobilized personnel showing sub-standard gear and rusted and poorly-preserved weapons.
What would a second mobilization force have to contend with?
Mosin- Nagants?
I mean, mobilized Ukrainian troops are literally using WWI maxim guns, including as anti-air weapons, so….
I would add that "partial mobilisation" never ended, it has slowed down once 300k goal was reached, but there are still reports of people being continuously summoned to at least update their details, go trough refresher training and then many of the end-up being sent to Ukraine. I don't know the numbers, I doubt anyone except of ruzzian MOD knows the numbers, but I would assume it must be in 10s if not 100s of thousands since the official "end" of mobilisation.
As well ruzzian are still taking people out of prisons... and unlike wagner they don't care if one has volunteered...
So yes - since "partial mobilisation" the intake has slowed down, but not completely stopped.
For every fighting solder there must be 3-5 non fighting in supporting roles.
So the 300 thousand mobilized mean at best 100 thousand fighting solder.
In Russian army is approximately 1:1. They started the war with 80 000 combat personel, all BTGs were undermanned.
That's not how it works as the frontline grunts and the ones in the back supporting face different rates of attrition for obvious reasons.
If a group of Russians gets killed on the frontline that also frees the logistics meant to support them so they can be used to support the next group of mobilized being sent to the meatgrinder instead.
It is not just the numbers degrading, but quality also. MOBIK< Spetznaz, T54 tanks < T90. They could only counterbalance this with further increasing numbers, but they do not / can not do it. Ukraine is getting well trained and equipped new troops, and modern armor. The forces shifted for Ukraine favor. I bet russia will fail against UKR counterattack, even in better defensive positions, it will not help them enough (abd Nato satelites will find the week spots for the breaktrough)
For a start Russia mobilised around 370,000 including volunteers. They continue to accept volunteers. LPR and DPR continue to recruit.
Russia is not loosing anywhere near close to 500 men per day. They have a 10:1 artillery advantage, around a 20:1 armour advantage and almost complete dominance of the air. There are almost no casualties outside of the line of contact.
Russia has advanced slowly and methodically, while minimising losses. When they are attacked in vunerable positions they withdraw. The way that Wagner conducts assaults is through small positional battles supported by massive artillery. The majority of casualties would be Wagner, since their job is assault. If Russia was suffering 500 casualties a day then Wagner would have vanished as a fighting force months ago.
@Peter G A truly devastating counter argument. I am thoroughly chastised.
wishful thinking
It has been rumored that Anders wears a dress shirt and tie to bed every night
Also in the shower too. The rumors are everywhere.
It's a bit like Superman - when we really need him, he run to his car and changes from his Military Uniform - the tie is his cape!
Great video! What I wonder is, do we know for sure that Russia hasn't conducted covert mobilizations in additions to the 300k?
Russia didn't really end the mobilisation, they announced it, but to actually end it Putin needs to signs a document that says so. So, they are just quietly mobilizing to this day bit by bit.
You affirm Russia has a HIGH ATTRITION rate and one minute later you confess you do NOT know the number of Russian casualties... It is contradictory !
I like how much you improved your channel in a short amount of time. Great stuff ! I'm a fan.
Watch DPA, Weeb Union, NWE war reports, History Legend.... etc to get real war updates. Watch this "The wheelchair General" if you only want to entertain your small brain 🤣🤣🤣🤣
Excellent presentation, thank you for your insight! I really enjoy your videos and I consider them to be an accurate and balanced presentation of the facts.
You have lost massive amount of soldiers if you call up 300000 soldiers and your goal was 500000 .and now they are trying to call up 147000 .I believe the Ukrainian numbers
One of the complaints we often hear from Russian troops is that their officers and higher-ups are not allowing them to recover the bodies of their fallen comrades. That’s why 19k - the amount of Russians who have actually been buried - is definitely a major undercount of the total dead Russians. I wouldn’t be surprised if the real number is close to double that, so ~40k.
Man, Ukraine now has more sunflower food than it could ever need - and conversely, Russia has far fewer men than it needs.
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦🇺🇸
So people would not put a obituary in the paper of their dead son if they did not have the body?
Only half of them would?
I think you're sorely mistaken if you trust Russia or Putya, that it's just 300000 that they mobilized. Or that they stopped mobilizing. What they said is that they reached their (then) goal.
So yes, even despite that it wasn't just 300k they mobilized, they do indeed have shortages, and have had for a long time by now.
The Russian MOD stated itself that about 80.000 people volunteered in addition to the 300k that were planned. If you add to that the people who were part of the military in February 2022 but ended there contracts around August and went back to civilian life (which they could do, since this is not technically considered a war in Russia) being recalled into service, then yes. It’s more like 420-430k troops.
I doubt russian government or high command has accurate number of soldier lost. The problem is the same with the equipment storage, it's numbers, quality and funds spending. Also lower rank officers are trying to make their reports "better looking" for their command.
Once again, an excellent summary, and on the mark. Thank you.
When you want to make an estimate of Russian manpower depletion, you need to consider captured soldiers and desertions too. The captured is probably kept secret, but desertions could be estimated on experience from other wars. An army also loses men to internal corruption- you pay someone to NOT go to war. These 3 numbers combined, is probably higher than the number of actual killed- which means that Russia allready has a serious manpower short!
Not to mention dead buried russians tanks collapsing trenches.Try counring them....Only way is the amount sent to the front and the amound they are trying to recruit.Equals the amount lost.God knows how many not counted....
As I remember, Budanov said that Russia has hidden mobilization and it was mobilizing 20k a month.
This argument doesn't disprove that Russians will have manpower shortage, but it will probably be less severe than in October
Another brilliant and very clear analysis. Thanks so much!
Analysis paralysis! Russia obviously doesn’t have the horsepower to move at a reasonable rate. They did not have a capable enough military nor reasonable tactics to initiate and dominate.Countries ruled by dictators often fall victim to the problems a lack of freedom presents and singing to the choir rears its ugly head. A three day operation has extended to beyond 400 days at this point. What is clear - Russia does not have enough resources nor capability. The fact that quantity in itself is a quality is one thing. But as can be seen the effectiveness of low quality quantity negates its usefulness. Russia is on its way to becoming a failed state. Stop counting, the lack of progress shows Russia is simply incapable for a number of reasons.
The second they started bombing civilians and kidnapping children they stopped being soldiers and became terrorists.
That said, they lost most of their trained personnel, so what's left are untrained terrorists.
Slava Ukraine 🇳🇱❤🇺🇦
Don't forget that the orcs eat children for breakfast
@@sepxviii731 lol
@@sepxviii731 And trolls explode when exposed to light.
Talking about ukrop-army?
Throughout history, soldiers have deliberately inflicted pain and death upon civilians and they are still called soldiers. Terrorists are just soldiers fighting for a common cause without an official country behind them, by using terror on civilians and military, as a weapon.
I understand the Russians have committed warcrimes but we shouldn't mix them up with real terrorists, just for the sake of not spreading wrong statements
How many fallen soldiers are given a formal burial at home ? If you know Russian propaganda you should strongly multiply the number claimed by authorities to get the real pictures.
Thx Anders! Alleays love your analisys!
I heard Ukrainians know the forbidden death spell while Russians all have broken wands and hand-me-down robes. There is no way Rusdia will win the quiddich game!
Really enjoyed the video. I think disease is another important factor to mention. If you put 300,000 complete strangers from all over the country together, they are going to get very sick. If those sick people are then kept in subpar conditions(like the Russian winter) with poor clothing and lack of health care, and proper diet etc.
And then you add in rampant alcoholism,
The result is a lot less than 300,000 men 😂
Tak for en seriøs analyse, fortalt med et normalt stemmeleje. 👍
Color me surprised, the way they spend soldier lives you'd think it's China not Russia we are talking about.
It appears this video didn’t age well
Why do you say so ?
@@mariaf.6601 Because it's totally detached from reality.
The Russian army that was sent in during the first wave of the operation, the army that was outnumbered 5 to 1 seemingly, that army managed to take nearly 20% of Ukraine territory. And with the recent mobilization within Russia itself, now Russian army is outnumbering the Ukrainians, and even worse, The Russian are at a defending position that they have been fortifying for nearly a year.
It's basic warfare math, the only side running out of troop is the Ukrainian, because all Ukrainian civilians are fleeing, and only the Ukrainian sides are launching offensives.
Launching offensives always cost more lives than defending position, especially launching a poorly equipped offensives. You need 3 times as much resources to launch an offense against an equal size defense, and Ukraine is running out of them. NATO countries do not have 24/7 arms production factories, unlike the ones that was put into work from the first day of the war in Russia.
I love watching these videos, keep bringing us great stuff!
Reported for misinformation
Happy Good Friday! You are doing great work!
I would be interested to see what you think about your cost/benefit predictions early in the war about what Putin would do.
PERUN has already worked extensively on that. Suggest you check him out.
@@ulrikschackmeyer848 I have been watching Perun for a year now. I was interested to see what Anders thought of his original analysis premobilisation and how it has played out over the last year. I think he was spot on but the rise of the milblogers in Moskovia is an unexpected wrinkle.
Leave it to Putin to “mobilize” 300,000 new troops with next to no training or experience.
Super interesting video as always, Anders.
I really appreciate your very cool and collected view of the facts.
What facts? Serious question because he didn't use any. This was pure opinion based of what he admitted are unreliable sources. How does that lead to any facts?🤦♂️
Ok, Groomer, how not? He cited estimate sources both high and low, explaining as much, and that the exact numbers don't matter for his point---only that "high attrition rates" do (which all numbers noted support), whatever those specifics may be. He then quite reasonably selected a middling value to compute an example estimate.
@@okgroomer1966Ok, Ivan 🤡
@@jamesedwards6173 Answering 'trolls and the like' - even with the intent to refute then - just boosts their algorithms. Just saying. Otherwise we are in full agreement.
Ok, Groomer undoubtedly is a pathetic troll factory specimen. Not replying to him directly as per Ulrik Schack Meyer's tip.
Hi Anders, and thanks for another great analyzing episode. I guess that the previous mobilization efforts were not popular. Thus, is it not possible that there is no official announcement will be made this time, and instead citizens will be recruited anyway?
In the short time (phase 3), it makes logically sense, with announcement of nuclear capability in Belarus. Considered the dire situation on the ground. It's just a matter of time, and depending on how the 2023 campaigns evolves, until this threat is used (to escalate) to scare off some major supplies to Ukraine. We will see who stands fast, and who will bow to the pressure/escalation.
Russia has nothing left to escalate - except nukes maybe, but that would lead to the West doubling down and directly interfering in the fighting.
Pootin never officially ended mobilization and there are rumours that it is still ongoing, but not in large amounts. It is also possible that ruzzia will force conscripts to sign a contract when their conscription ends.
Of cause I find the loss of ALL human lives in war appalling!
But let's just have a look at your suggestion, shall we? From a purely theoretical point of classic utilitarian philosophy, shall we?
So, Russia lobs off a tactical nuke. Perhaps just into the Black Sea, a shot across the bow to NATO, so to speak.
USA have promised 'catastrophic consequences' to Russia, if they do.
Taking out the ENTIRE Black Sea fleet in one fell swoop, has been mentioned.
Taking out EVERY Russian position in ALL of Ukraine, in a matter of a few days, has been mentioned.
Not a single attack on Russia proper, though!
Let's continue our thought experiment, shall we?
Ukraine walks in and reclaims ALL of Ukraine, probably with highly increased support from NATO members and others.
Ukraine is fast-tracked into EU and NATO.
Was that what you had in mind?
Again from a purely theoretical Utilitarian philosophy point, of cause!
Was that the outcome that we should all fear?
Just wondering?
@@ulrikschackmeyer848 Let's add an outlier.
Is there any guarantee that Ukraine has no atomic/nuclear capability after a year of total war?
The science is over a century old, the technology is eighty years old - and many smaller, less viable, less technically proficient nations are 'nuclear powers'. Total war has a way of focusing the mind.
Remember that Ukraine has the ability to process atomic energy waste into weapons grade materiel - or, at least they did back in the day.
Russia will not "scare off" supplies to Ukraine by threatening nukes (for the billionth time). Not only has it chronically been "the boy who cried wolf", and not only does it know the backlash would be catastrophic for it, but also the West understands that acquiescing to such threats only tells despots the world round _that it works,_ thereby propagating the behavior more widely. And, that's a much bigger problem in the long run.
Possession of nuclear weapons does not mean a nation just gets to do whatever it wants, simply by threatening to employ them.