Having it ended with a truce mediated by President 🥔 of all people leaves me feeling like I watched an entire thriller season and then the finale was replaced with an episode of Sponge Bob.
This is not an attempted coup. The army is not going to flip and if Wagner tries to drive on Moscow, Russian airpower will destroy his columns. It's an extortion plot to extract from Putin what Wagner wants, hence the deal.
Hello from Canada. I would gladly watch if you go for an deeper analysis of the current situation in Russia and Ukraine’s options. Thank-you very much for sharing your thoughts with us, I know I am better informed because of you.
Prigozhin is just like a cartel leader or mob boss. Cartel leaders don't retire, they lead the cartel and are successful at killing their rivals or they are dead or imprisoned. Prigozhin is still alive and not imprisoned, so he must be succeeding at the moment. Every day that passes and he is still alive and not imprisoned means he still has real power to hurt Putin.
Sir, I firmly believe that your perspective is right on the money! It is very refreshing to hear a clear and concise analysis of what could be happening based on what little real information is getting out. Thank you! I subscribed to your channel and look forward to more of your videos.
The key question for 18 months, where is the Russian air force? Prigozhin spread his forces along 1200km of motorway. This can not be done with an active air force
Maybe, just maybe, the Russian goverment didn't want to kill other Russians before other options had been explored. I mean I know that's against all the 'orc' and 'Putler' rhetoric, but it could be tru.
It was literally shot down in the process? 6 helis down. The russian air force cannot approach anti-air systems. That's why they fire long range American missiles that US blocks Ukraine from receiving but lets russia make with their components from afar, out of reach of air defenses. And they ONLY hit large buildings. Like the house across me.
There was an airforce, Wagner shot down something like 5 russian helicopters and a surveillance plane. One more reason why this will likely have consequences, even if the drama dies down for now. Looks like both Wagner and Russian forces didnt openly engage in combat otherwise. At least not on a large scale, there was some shootouts reported.
I read a lot of comments below, I have two questions for some of them: 1. why don't you watch the video before commenting? 2. before commenting, make sure understand what Anders is saying
It will also be interesting to see how the people around Putin deal with what Prigozhin said about the real reasons for the invasion of Ukraine. That cannot be undone. Moreover, his mercenaries also shot down four helicopters and a Russian army plane. If Putin were to accept that so easily without consequences, he would look completely weak. It is also absolutely incomprehensible why Putin needed Lukashenko for the alleged deal. Was there no one in Russia who could do this, no common acquaintance who could talk to Prigozhin?
I doubt Russia's stance will change in any way. Prigozhin tried to overthrow his government, that's treason. Nobody listens to a traitor to their country as that person clearly doesn't care about the wellbeing of the country. Probably said all those those reasons for the invasion of Ukraine because they perfectly line up with the Western position and was hoping for Western support. Which of course is wishful thinking. Who says Russia's lying about the war while having a paid military in the war? If he really thought Russia was lying, he would have had his army fight alongside Ukraine from the beginning, then his words would have value. Currently his words are just propaganda. We may not like Putin but Western leaders don't want to deal with that scum running Russia.
He straight up. Without mincing words. Came out and said the entire war is built on lies. That the reasons for it are entirely fallacious. It’s a shocking thing to see a high level Russian saying things like this. It’s so incredibly damaging to the Russian cause in Ukraine. Like how can Putin keep this guy around after this? He destroyed the entire framework of justification for the ukraine invasion.
Can you elaborate on this idea that Wanger "shot down four helicopters and a Russian army plane?" I had not heard that yet. Not saying it is false, just curious if you can point toward sources? With things happening fast in Russia and so many voices claiming so many things, it is wise to be skeptical about most things you hear. In this case, I had heard another source ("Inside Russia," who is a native Russian living in exile in Tashkent, so he avails himself of a broad-spectrum of Russian language sources) say that there had been "one clash confirmed" between Putin regime forces and Wagner forces with the attack having been conducted with aircraft of some sort, but no mention of any craft shot down.
The main thing, narrator is pathological russophobe, so his opinion is far from truth It was a loyalty test for russian government etc, it isn't a mutiny , just show..
@@187Rajah Nah. This whole mess was worthless as a "coup", but it did do some damage to Russia's morale and reputation. The Russian brass wouldn't have staged this for such an unnecessary reason. Or at all, really. This was weird, but it was real. I think that either Prigozhin just cracked and had a temper tantrum on his own, and he got big-headed enough after all of Wagner's success to expect much more support than he got, OR Western alphabet agencies got to him somehow. He was spewing Ukrainian talking points in the lead-up to this and demonstrably lying about the situation at the front, so Western involvement doesn't seem unlikely. Either way, good riddance. He's been unstable for months. Glad he's gone. Maybe Lukashenko can get him a shrink. Agree on the russophobic commentator though. Westerners live in their own little bubble where Russians are perpetual villains from Rocky. What else is new? I don't even bother anymore.
Pff as soon as somebody is doing shit in Russia they say it is the West faul. In the End alot of people in the Russian system are just idiots . So I guess the bad West thing works for brainwashed russians . But in the West we just take some Popcorn and enjoy the Show.
@@steveclark8304 Something I read a long while back. Not sure it was attributed there either. It is not a chiastic construct like "when the going gets tough, the tough get going" but I have remembered it all this while. Glad you appreciate it as well!
@@austenhead5303 True, as things panned out. Over a 24 hour period. Russians can't even manage a proper mutiny or coup. My remark was triggered by Anders's opening remark, check again. Coup is preferred to mutiny nowadays, even as in failed coups, in Africa and South+Central America for example.
@@amar-2 But it wasn't even a failed, pathetic coup. It wasn't any sort of coup. Prigozhin didn't try to topple the government, didn't so much as say a word to that effect, he just had beef with Shoigu and Gerasimov and threw a temper tantrum. This was a temper tantrum with tanks.
Essentially you want Russians to overthrow their government which would cause immense suffering for the Russian people? Yeah people are apathetic for not destroying their country. If we want Ukraine to win, it won't be because we hoped Russians woke up and destabilized their home.
many sees Putin as the less of evils. in 1917 there was a very strong dislike of the tsar. not so much towards the current tsar today it seems. but many are tired of the war. something might be cooking, and first signs today
Hi Anders. You did a great job on DR today! It’s always such a pleasure to get your perspective on how the war unfolds! Tak for at du gider at bruge noget af din fritid på at dele din indsigt med os andre - du er en rigtig nørd, og jeg mener det på den allermest positive måde!
Dear Anders, once again thank you for your brilliant analysis. Every normal person was hoping for more than the end, which we see so far. There's a lot of open questions and a lot of fog. And congratulations to your pronunciation of russ. names, у вас отлично получается!
Prigozhin has sowed the seed of doubt. Prigozhin isn't desperate, time on his side. Not being trapped into a lengthy siege on Moscow was a smart move. Prigozhin just needs the air force on his side and then he will try again. Something else which people have not picked up on is Prigozhin has trapped Putin. Putin was going to blame Shoigu BUT Putin has now publicly backed Shoigu...
I'm also interested in the concequences for the CAE, Lybia, Chechnya, Mali, Nagorno-Karabakh etc. The places where Wagner is active beyond Ukraine. It would be apreciated to get your opinion on how the current situation will effect the these.
Many thanks for the good analysis Anders. Having half a foot in Eastern Europe, with both Ukranian and Russian friends, your analysis sounds spot on. Tak tak
You can be sure that calls were being made and alliances formed as that column was driving toward Moscow...just in case. It's likely Prigozhin knows there are thoughts on the minds of those in the power centers of Russia that a coup could be in the works if Putin is seen to be weak. Prigozhin's feint towards Moscow was a catalyst to getting those power centers moving in that direction. This is probably only the opening salvo in a struggle that might takes weeks to play out. I think if Ukraine wins back Crimea it's over for Putin.
What is more likely to happen now is that the traitors that have exposed themselves, will find sudden deaths by the fsb the comming weeks. Nobody is ever going to be stupid enough to support proggy ever again. And there won't be anyone else left that wants to rebel against putin.
It was clear that no matter what this war would be the end for Putin's regime since there was no way they could get out of it unless they won and there has never been a chance of them winning. It's however shocking that it's happening this quickly.
Tentative alliances had to have been formed before this started. Prigozhen never had the strength to win alone. He can't possibly be that bad at calculating odds. All the regular Russian military units just gave way before him. He just walked right into the military headquarters in Rostov. He stopped to talk to people.
If this was planned it wasn't planned long ago as Wagner was fighting in bakhmut and suffering heavy losses until very recently. I wonder if Prigozhin was not just afraid of getting assassinated or jailed and decided his best chances were with a desperate risky attempt at building a bargaining position to bail himself out of trouble.
The idea that this would have required advance planning makes sense to me, however what doesn’t seem to have been planned is what would happen after Rostov. One would think Prigozhin would have contacted people in advance to make sure of their support. Or maybe he thought he had backing but his backers chickened out?
This was fascinating. I think you're spot on about the planning, and I'd add that I think it means that wagner had a contingency plan for this for a long time, and the Russian military had none. I think it also means that they would have not done this had they any fear of reprisal. Or in other words, Putin has already lost effective control over some groups Hoping the struggle continues, for the sake of Ukraine.
This has been boiling for quite some time. Prigozhin booked great results and criticized the Russian army for not arming them properly. (while the Russian army in turn wanted to integrate Wagner into the army) And when at some point they had to retreat somewhere they noticed the road back was covered in mines. So when they started to demine the roads, they got attacked by a Russian army unit. Wagner quickly defeated that unit but the commander wouldn't say who gave the order to attack him. So Prigozhin was in a situation where he gets attacked by the military top. So he needed to get Putin's attention while at the same time keep his troops together. It was a bald and desperate move but in the end it paid off. Now he can go to Belarus, away from the claws of the military and he keeps his army and independence. To say that Putin lost control and somehow his power is crumbling is absolute nonsense. This was not a march against Putin, there were no plans to overthrow the government or anything either. Prigozhin holds zero political power in Russia....he is just as easily disposed of by Putin in the same way he built him into what he is today. This was a cry for attention and maybe rightfully so. So now he keeps his position and men and he will be stationed in Belarus where the Russian army can't mess with him and as a result he now probably reports directly into Putin instead of the military command, keeping his independance. Putin has not lost control of anything, there is no coup and there is not gonna be one either. He also doesn't have cancer like they claimed and Russia is not gonna collapse or whatever. So sorry, but there is no struggle. No vultures are circling above the Kremlin either.
@@hiufgterde Your perspective is interesting, and I can see how that could be the perspective of many. However... Had this happened in the time of Stalin, or any other Russian or Soviet leader, all involved would be dead. Had this happened in the US, today, all involved would be under arrest and charged with treason. Putin isn't showing restraint here, he's showing weakness, even by western standards. That's not new, though. The open criticism by a military leader of the civilian leadership is grounds for dismissal in any army in the world. Unless it's Putin.
The current situation, less than an hour after the video was uploaded, still doesn't make sense to me. It appears Prigozhin gave up his effort, is going to dismantle his army and will go to exile in Belarus, without getting any reward for doing so. Yes, there's a promise he won't be prosecuted, but we all know a promise is worth virtually nothing in Russian politics. So, I'm still watching out for any advantage Prigozhin got for agreeing to the peace deal. Are there forces or conditions which could have killed him and are unaware to the public or just me? Did he get something the public doesn't know yet? Did it take this run to Moscow to make him aware that Putin doesn't like him anymore? I guess I have to wait quite a while to find out.
The Wagner group fights for money from the corrupt leadership of Moscow. Money is of cause part of the deal negotiated by Lukashenko. But I guess it will become a problem to make a fair distribution of money to the other military leaders in the Wagner group. The relationship here will be difficult to handle.
You are the first commentator to mention the issue of allies. I simply don’t believe that Prigozhin would have acted without allies. In my mind, the issue is its not IF he has allies, it’s who those allies are.
Excellent takes. I agree, the situation is far from over and a catastrophe for Putin. There's no coming back from this anymore. This will keep getting worse if Putin does not squash this insubordination. But so far he seems extremely weak, incompetent and clueless. Absolute humiliation.
@@Khairuldean-vz4mp we all wished he would nuke moscow as soon as convoy approached it or at least nuke Rostov and Voronezh earlier... But there's time for everything. It's not IF but when russia will be nuked at this point.
@@KasumiRINA - How can Putin Nuke or even bomb Rostov when it’s the HQ for the entire Ukraine war? All the Russian high command are in Rostov, along with all their military vehicles including tanks, heavy weapons, grads, radar equipment, computer installations, technology gear, IT stuff, intelligence gathering junk, and tons and tons of guns and ammunition. Sure, good idea, that would end the war. Plus….Isn’t there an old Russian joke about bombing Voronezh? Something akin to shooting oneself in the foot.
Putin looked useless in his TV address to castigate the potty mouthed chef's treason, what's he going to say now, can potty mouth trust Belarus's leader, etc., etc.!?!
Hey mr. Nielsen, hey there folks. Guy from putlerland here. There's a saying in russian that says "Оказался наш отец не отцом а сукою" and currently that applies both to kremlin manlet and baldy bubba's cellmate. Cheers from putleristan.
Good commentary thanks Anders. Prigozhin is a charismatic warlord. It’s difficult for me to imagine he’ll simply just give it all up and go quietly into exile but that may well happen. Why wouldn’t he opt for retirement in Belarus? I guess we’ll soon see.
It was not about a coup. Prigo only wanted to be out of prison and make/keep billions of money he makes from his african mines. Also he want the russian ministry of defense financing his soldiers (that would have stopped 1st July). I guess Putin payed a lot for this deal.
Thanks for your quick reaction to these events in Russia. Your opinion on this is always very valuable. It will be interesting to see the effects of this on the foreign affairs of Russia considering the presence of the Wagner group in many countries.
Love you stuff. Funny, you Americanized Wagner. I know you're fluent in Danish, Russian, English and I'd guess you gotta have some German too. Most people in the U.S./U.K. use the German pronunciation for Wagner. Then again you're a multilanguage god :-)
To me it seems like Shoigu did preemptively attack Prigozhin learning or fearing that he was close to pulling something, then immediately branded him a traitor to sideline him. I think if Prigozhin initiated it, Wagner would have been in place and in control of strategic positions much quicker. I think this forced him to rush the timetable up.
Well, I saw the video of the supposed aftermath of the missile attack on Wagner. And I have to say that the running commentary from those filming it was suspiciously precise on what had happened and who was responsible. In a way that two people running to the scene of such an incident would be unlikely to be.
> Wagner would have been in place and in control of strategic positions much quicker. They were surprisingly quick to do exactly that though. They managed to gain control of Rostov-on-don in a few hours, one of the biggest cities in Southern Russia and the most important supply hub for all troops in South Eastern Ukraine, basically the majority of the Russian army. And in a single day they managed to get within 200 km of Moscow. That is absolutely only possible if this had already been planned beforehand and you had a huge network of collaborators to let it happen. I mean even the Ukrainian army hasn't been able to take positions this quickly, their Kharkiv offensive still took a few days. It seems pretty obvious that Wagner was only this successful because they had collaborators.
@@hedgehog3180 Agree that they had collaborators. So far, I've seen most people attribute Wagner's success in entering Rostov/Voronezh/etc solely to sympathy among Russian forces. However, I think you're right. Even given an enormous amount of sympathy, this wouldn't have happened so quickly in the absence of planning.
Thank you for another great explanation Anders. #russiaisaTerroristState Victory, Freedom, Full Reparations, and all of Ukraine's Land for Ukraine, this includes Donbas and Crimea! 💙💛
This is insane. What is his angle? Why would he stop, this is not going away for proggy. Or was it a fake all along, i didn't think it was, but now i'm no longer sure. Man this war is weird.
Makes more sense if you think of it in more medieval/early renaissance terms. Prighozin is a mercenary leader who reminded his boss what happens if you start messing with te paychecks or his company. Google Sack of Rome.
@@TheStephaneAdam that makes sense for the show of force. But the stirring the pot with him calling out the lies and going against the narative is kinda out of place. And he really screwed over the people who came out in support of him, they will be in a heap of trouble and will make anyone think twice of supporting him the next time. And there will be a next time. Unless this was a setup organised with putin himself, this is not over for proggy and he will be someone they will want to get rid of at some point in the future.
@@TheStephaneAdam Yeah people still view Russia as a superpower, and this stuff is confusing from that perspective. If we instead imagine Russia is more like Congo or something, then this makes more sense.
I didn't initially think of this - that way - that this is well planen - but I must admit, the mere fact that Prigozhin is not in jail or killed - points to the fact, that Putin got court off guard ! - It seems Prigozhin has better intel than Putin - The odd for Prigozhin keep rising
I've heard that Putin is in this insulated bubble with his sycophants telling him what he wants to hear, doesn't use the internet either. Typical dictator scenario, so he doesn't really know everything that's going on. If I was Prigozhin I'd be wary about being poisoned and stay away from high rises. I've never seen such an overt coup oriented advance turned around like this. Strange.
If I were Prigozhin, and I had failed in my attempted takeover of Moscow, I would simply withdraw with my mercenary forces to a more secure area. And await Putin's next move. Knowing that whatever action he took, he would also be having to defend against a major Ukrainian counteroffensive. And that I had the ability to severely disrupt that. And potentially lose the whole war for Putin - A kinda 'nuclear option'. Which I'm sure every true Russian patriot could appreciate.
it had to be planned to SOME degree, but it couldn't have been planned all that well, because otherwise he wouldn't take a deal in the first few hours of the revolt. I find it rather weird that he took the deal so quickly. If it would have been planned so well, I just don't see Prigozhin taking a deal. Something super unexpected must have happened for Prigozhin to take a deal like this. It's all rather weird.
@@vyli1 I think it is what it appears to be. A coup. Its not the first in recent Russian history either. In 1991 communist hardliners did the same, and failed. Yeltsin was more successful in 1993 during the October Coup. I think it was pretty well planned. TV stations were hacked, and put out pro-Prigozhin propaganda. He's been selling himself to all sides. The pro war/anti war/anti corruption crowd (he does run Putin's internet research agency, after all). And he was able to effectively just walk into Rostov.
What I want to know is why did the Wagner advance stop? What did Putin and Lukashenko offer Prigozhin to get him to call of an attack that seemed to be working?
I always enjoy your commentary Anders - please never stop giving us the benefit of your insights. That you can talk so fluently off-script in your 2nd language is admirable.
Having it ended with a truce mediated by President 🥔 of all people leaves me feeling like I watched an entire thriller season and then the finale was replaced with an episode of Sponge Bob.
Exactly! Who even writes this script? 😄
😅😅😅 very good 👍 👏 👏
This is not an attempted coup. The army is not going to flip and if Wagner tries to drive on Moscow, Russian airpower will destroy his columns. It's an extortion plot to extract from Putin what Wagner wants, hence the deal.
That sums it up perfectly.
Very good description.
I don't know Sponge Bob, but it sounds a big marshmallow, à lá the Michelin Man.
Hello from Canada. I would gladly watch if you go for an deeper analysis of the current situation in Russia and Ukraine’s options. Thank-you very much for sharing your thoughts with us, I know I am better informed because of you.
This vlog is one of the best to understand what is going on in the Russia Ukraine war! Thanks from Sweden Anders!
Prigozhin is just like a cartel leader or mob boss. Cartel leaders don't retire, they lead the cartel and are successful at killing their rivals or they are dead or imprisoned. Prigozhin is still alive and not imprisoned, so he must be succeeding at the moment. Every day that passes and he is still alive and not imprisoned means he still has real power to hurt Putin.
The Russian upper class are all mafiosos!
Well put.
The official explanation doesn't tell us the real deal....
Don't worry. There is no problem in Russia that can't be fixed with a little Novichok or a push from a window.
Pringles just blue balled everyone, he was this close to greatness.
Also his expiration date is due soon
"Pringles" L M F A O
He could have been then next Lenin instead he will be forgotten like General Rokossovsky who took Berlin to end WW2 in Europe.
Priggy is pure calculating evil. He's worse than Putin. I wouldn't want to see him with the nuclear weapons codes.
@@Contrajoeas a former restauranteur/caterer maybe Pringles actually makes a bit of sense
He will die a natural death in exile.
Thanks for your quick, yet sharp evaluations. Much appreciated!
Thanks for the quick reaction!
Sir, I firmly believe that your perspective is right on the money! It is very refreshing to hear a clear and concise analysis of what could be happening based on what little real information is getting out. Thank you! I subscribed to your channel and look forward to more of your videos.
Thank you so much. I've been so eager to hear your take.
I saw you earlier today on DR1 sharing your thoughts. It is always a pleasure to hear your commentary 😁🇩🇰
The key question for 18 months, where is the Russian air force?
Prigozhin spread his forces along 1200km of motorway. This can not be done with an active air force
Maybe, just maybe, the Russian goverment didn't want to kill other Russians before other options had been explored. I mean I know that's against all the 'orc' and 'Putler' rhetoric, but it could be tru.
Wallowing in a puddle of it's own cowardice
In the workshop for maintenance and overhaul.
Where else?
Operational rates always have been horrendous in russian federation.
It was literally shot down in the process? 6 helis down. The russian air force cannot approach anti-air systems. That's why they fire long range American missiles that US blocks Ukraine from receiving but lets russia make with their components from afar, out of reach of air defenses. And they ONLY hit large buildings. Like the house across me.
There was an airforce, Wagner shot down something like 5 russian helicopters and a surveillance plane. One more reason why this will likely have consequences, even if the drama dies down for now.
Looks like both Wagner and Russian forces didnt openly engage in combat otherwise. At least not on a large scale, there was some shootouts reported.
I read a lot of comments below, I have two questions for some of them:
1. why don't you watch the video before commenting?
2. before commenting, make sure understand what Anders is saying
It will also be interesting to see how the people around Putin deal with what Prigozhin said about the real reasons for the invasion of Ukraine. That cannot be undone. Moreover, his mercenaries also shot down four helicopters and a Russian army plane. If Putin were to accept that so easily without consequences, he would look completely weak. It is also absolutely incomprehensible why Putin needed Lukashenko for the alleged deal. Was there no one in Russia who could do this, no common acquaintance who could talk to Prigozhin?
^^^ All of this Russian leaders need to be strong Putin now looks weak and Prigozhin looks incredibly smart and strong that cant stand
Shows how isolated Putin is.
I doubt Russia's stance will change in any way. Prigozhin tried to overthrow his government, that's treason. Nobody listens to a traitor to their country as that person clearly doesn't care about the wellbeing of the country. Probably said all those those reasons for the invasion of Ukraine because they perfectly line up with the Western position and was hoping for Western support. Which of course is wishful thinking. Who says Russia's lying about the war while having a paid military in the war? If he really thought Russia was lying, he would have had his army fight alongside Ukraine from the beginning, then his words would have value. Currently his words are just propaganda. We may not like Putin but Western leaders don't want to deal with that scum running Russia.
He straight up. Without mincing words. Came out and said the entire war is built on lies. That the reasons for it are entirely fallacious. It’s a shocking thing to see a high level Russian saying things like this. It’s so incredibly damaging to the Russian cause in Ukraine. Like how can Putin keep this guy around after this? He destroyed the entire framework of justification for the ukraine invasion.
Can you elaborate on this idea that Wanger "shot down four helicopters and a Russian army plane?" I had not heard that yet. Not saying it is false, just curious if you can point toward sources? With things happening fast in Russia and so many voices claiming so many things, it is wise to be skeptical about most things you hear. In this case, I had heard another source ("Inside Russia," who is a native Russian living in exile in Tashkent, so he avails himself of a broad-spectrum of Russian language sources) say that there had been "one clash confirmed" between Putin regime forces and Wagner forces with the attack having been conducted with aircraft of some sort, but no mention of any craft shot down.
Anders your presentation is excellent. Many thanks!
I was really hoping you were going to upload about this. It is absolutely insane ...
Another video that has aged really well!!
Complicated issues explained succinctly, accurately, and timely such that a layman can understand! Much appreciated!
The main thing, narrator is pathological russophobe, so his opinion is far from truth
It was a loyalty test for russian government etc, it isn't a mutiny , just show..
@@187Rajah
Let's go for nuclear war
That's will be more news worthy
agreed
@@187Rajah Nah. This whole mess was worthless as a "coup", but it did do some damage to Russia's morale and reputation. The Russian brass wouldn't have staged this for such an unnecessary reason. Or at all, really.
This was weird, but it was real. I think that either Prigozhin just cracked and had a temper tantrum on his own, and he got big-headed enough after all of Wagner's success to expect much more support than he got, OR Western alphabet agencies got to him somehow. He was spewing Ukrainian talking points in the lead-up to this and demonstrably lying about the situation at the front, so Western involvement doesn't seem unlikely.
Either way, good riddance. He's been unstable for months. Glad he's gone. Maybe Lukashenko can get him a shrink.
Agree on the russophobic commentator though. Westerners live in their own little bubble where Russians are perpetual villains from Rocky. What else is new? I don't even bother anymore.
Pff as soon as somebody is doing shit in Russia they say it is the West faul. In the End alot of people in the Russian system are just idiots .
So I guess the bad West thing works for brainwashed russians . But in the West we just take some Popcorn and enjoy the Show.
As was once said: A revolution is a revolt that succeeded, a revolt is a revolution that failed.
Who said that? Very profound.
@@steveclark8304 Something I read a long while back. Not sure it was attributed there either. It is not a chiastic construct like "when the going gets tough, the tough get going" but I have remembered it all this while. Glad you appreciate it as well!
This was neither. A mutiny, at most.
@@austenhead5303 True, as things panned out. Over a 24 hour period. Russians can't even manage a proper mutiny or coup. My remark was triggered by Anders's opening remark, check again. Coup is preferred to mutiny nowadays, even as in failed coups, in Africa and South+Central America for example.
@@amar-2 But it wasn't even a failed, pathetic coup. It wasn't any sort of coup. Prigozhin didn't try to topple the government, didn't so much as say a word to that effect, he just had beef with Shoigu and Gerasimov and threw a temper tantrum.
This was a temper tantrum with tanks.
Thanks for the video!
Thanks for your instightful observation.
Wagner got “security guarantees”. From Putin. What a relief.
Just stay away from all open windows - just to be sure.
I think we can't underestimate the apathetic culture in Russia. It makes it hard to rally people to anything en mass.
Essentially you want Russians to overthrow their government which would cause immense suffering for the Russian people? Yeah people are apathetic for not destroying their country. If we want Ukraine to win, it won't be because we hoped Russians woke up and destabilized their home.
Unless you have a weak leader they dont like that shit
many sees Putin as the less of evils. in 1917 there was a very strong dislike of the tsar. not so much towards the current tsar today it seems. but many are tired of the war. something might be cooking, and first signs today
Apathetic people wont defend you either though
Why would we rally if both Wagner and army are both our citizens?
Excellent video as always Anders!
Hi Anders.
You did a great job on DR today!
It’s always such a pleasure to get your perspective on how the war unfolds!
Tak for at du gider at bruge noget af din fritid på at dele din indsigt med os andre - du er en rigtig nørd, og jeg mener det på den allermest positive måde!
He’s a far higher class of expert than most TV news usually have. DR, though, is one of the best mainstream news outlets though.
Vi nerder må stå sammen, uansett hvilket fag det må være :)
@The_ZeroLine I completely agree with both of your arguments.
@@The_ZeroLine
Yes, it's no wonder that Reporters Sans Frontiers put the Scandinavian countries high in the freedom of press and credibility scale .
@@Imwer
Enig!
Dear Anders, once again thank you for your brilliant analysis. Every normal person was hoping for more than the end, which we see so far. There's a lot of open questions and a lot of fog.
And congratulations to your pronunciation of russ. names, у вас отлично получается!
Акцент действительно лёгкий, едва уловимый. Было бы интересно услышать как Андерс произносит фамилию Борщёв и умеет ли он к месту материться.
Always awesome comments Anders. The best
Prigozhin has sowed the seed of doubt.
Prigozhin isn't desperate, time on his side. Not being trapped into a lengthy siege on Moscow was a smart move.
Prigozhin just needs the air force on his side and then he will try again.
Something else which people have not picked up on is Prigozhin has trapped Putin. Putin was going to blame Shoigu BUT Putin has now publicly backed Shoigu...
Yeah, he's gonna regroup in Minsk. LOL.
Prigozhin just needs a little time to gather his forces from Ukraine and Africa
He is a dead man walking!
@@wideyxyz2271 "HE" can be Prigozhin, Putin or both!
@@wideyxyz2271that's right. All putin's assassins need do is pierce Prigozhin's 25,000 man army. So simple
Wagner getting to Moscow quicker than Russia could get to Keiv LMAO 😂😂😂
Yeah, they seem to have marched hundreds of kilometers in one day?!? Something's not making sense...
No one was trying to stop them
@@OttomanSultana Okay, but didn't they call it "the March" of something?
@@OttomanSultana All right. Thanks for explaining it in its military context.
Ends up nothing happened, west critics are so stupid and baseless
As of yesterday, RESISTANCE IS POSSIBLE!
Appreciate your analysis 🎉
Awesome analysis. Definitely showing the signal in the midst of a lot of a lot of noise. Very timely.
Good job, excellent observations.
I'm also interested in the concequences for the CAE, Lybia, Chechnya, Mali, Nagorno-Karabakh etc. The places where Wagner is active beyond Ukraine. It would be apreciated to get your opinion on how the current situation will effect the these.
Best analysis on RUclips, as usual. Thanks for sharing so quickly!
My first time here.
Thank you for explaining a uniquely thought provoking perspective I have not heard so far and makes total sense.
🇨🇦🇺🇦❤💙💛
Many thanks for the good analysis Anders.
Having half a foot in Eastern Europe, with both Ukranian and Russian friends, your analysis sounds spot on.
Tak tak
"It does not really make that much sense..."
That comment says it all. 😮😮 ❤
(Hope you are well.)
Very interesting developments.
Thanks.
Commander Nielsen with some extraordinarily sound thoughts.
Really happy that you released a video on this subject so quickly, thank you!
You can be sure that calls were being made and alliances formed as that column was driving toward Moscow...just in case. It's likely Prigozhin knows there are thoughts on the minds of those in the power centers of Russia that a coup could be in the works if Putin is seen to be weak. Prigozhin's feint towards Moscow was a catalyst to getting those power centers moving in that direction. This is probably only the opening salvo in a struggle that might takes weeks to play out. I think if Ukraine wins back Crimea it's over for Putin.
What is more likely to happen now is that the traitors that have exposed themselves, will find sudden deaths by the fsb the comming weeks.
Nobody is ever going to be stupid enough to support proggy ever again. And there won't be anyone else left that wants to rebel against putin.
It was clear that no matter what this war would be the end for Putin's regime since there was no way they could get out of it unless they won and there has never been a chance of them winning. It's however shocking that it's happening this quickly.
Yes
Tentative alliances had to have been formed before this started. Prigozhen never had the strength to win alone. He can't possibly be that bad at calculating odds.
All the regular Russian military units just gave way before him. He just walked right into the military headquarters in Rostov. He stopped to talk to people.
@@recoil53 Whoever he made aliances with seemed to have backed down when it came to walk the walk - so that´s why it ended like this
Anders great insight 😊😊😊
If this was planned it wasn't planned long ago as Wagner was fighting in bakhmut and suffering heavy losses until very recently. I wonder if Prigozhin was not just afraid of getting assassinated or jailed and decided his best chances were with a desperate risky attempt at building a bargaining position to bail himself out of trouble.
Excellent take. Probably the best analysis I’ve watched today. Thanks much.
The idea that this would have required advance planning makes sense to me, however what doesn’t seem to have been planned is what would happen after Rostov. One would think Prigozhin would have contacted people in advance to make sure of their support. Or maybe he thought he had backing but his backers chickened out?
Appreciate your analysis. Thanks.
Cheers.
This was fascinating. I think you're spot on about the planning, and I'd add that I think it means that wagner had a contingency plan for this for a long time, and the Russian military had none. I think it also means that they would have not done this had they any fear of reprisal. Or in other words, Putin has already lost effective control over some groups Hoping the struggle continues, for the sake of Ukraine.
24 June 2023 / Wagner
This has been boiling for quite some time. Prigozhin booked great results and criticized the Russian army for not arming them properly. (while the Russian army in turn wanted to integrate Wagner into the army) And when at some point they had to retreat somewhere they noticed the road back was covered in mines. So when they started to demine the roads, they got attacked by a Russian army unit. Wagner quickly defeated that unit but the commander wouldn't say who gave the order to attack him. So Prigozhin was in a situation where he gets attacked by the military top. So he needed to get Putin's attention while at the same time keep his troops together. It was a bald and desperate move but in the end it paid off. Now he can go to Belarus, away from the claws of the military and he keeps his army and independence. To say that Putin lost control and somehow his power is crumbling is absolute nonsense. This was not a march against Putin, there were no plans to overthrow the government or anything either. Prigozhin holds zero political power in Russia....he is just as easily disposed of by Putin in the same way he built him into what he is today. This was a cry for attention and maybe rightfully so. So now he keeps his position and men and he will be stationed in Belarus where the Russian army can't mess with him and as a result he now probably reports directly into Putin instead of the military command, keeping his independance.
Putin has not lost control of anything, there is no coup and there is not gonna be one either. He also doesn't have cancer like they claimed and Russia is not gonna collapse or whatever. So sorry, but there is no struggle. No vultures are circling above the Kremlin either.
@@hiufgterde Your perspective is interesting, and I can see how that could be the perspective of many. However... Had this happened in the time of Stalin, or any other Russian or Soviet leader, all involved would be dead. Had this happened in the US, today, all involved would be under arrest and charged with treason. Putin isn't showing restraint here, he's showing weakness, even by western standards. That's not new, though. The open criticism by a military leader of the civilian leadership is grounds for dismissal in any army in the world. Unless it's Putin.
Ends up nothing happened, west critics are so stupid and baseless
@@tomsmith3045I expect to see massive purges in the coming days. If that doesn't happen, pootin is a dead man.
Was waiting for this all day, I imagine you've been very frequently revising this video lol. Thank you for your hard work sir
The current situation, less than an hour after the video was uploaded, still doesn't make sense to me. It appears Prigozhin gave up his effort, is going to dismantle his army and will go to exile in Belarus, without getting any reward for doing so. Yes, there's a promise he won't be prosecuted, but we all know a promise is worth virtually nothing in Russian politics.
So, I'm still watching out for any advantage Prigozhin got for agreeing to the peace deal. Are there forces or conditions which could have killed him and are unaware to the public or just me? Did he get something the public doesn't know yet? Did it take this run to Moscow to make him aware that Putin doesn't like him anymore? I guess I have to wait quite a while to find out.
Could be he was doing that to get a better deal, but overestimated his support by elites/population and agreed to a shitty one.
If the nukes Russia was moving there are actually still there that could be what Prighozin is after in Belarus
The Wagner group fights for money from the corrupt leadership of Moscow. Money is of cause part of the deal negotiated by Lukashenko. But I guess it will become a problem to make a fair distribution of money to the other military leaders in the Wagner group. The relationship here will be difficult to handle.
Well, we know what they want us to know.
Thank you Anders. 💛 And it will be interesting to see how this will play out.
You are the first commentator to mention the issue of allies. I simply don’t believe that Prigozhin would have acted without allies. In my mind, the issue is its not IF he has allies, it’s who those allies are.
Good point, I hadn't considered that-wonder who those allies are indeed.
There are probably multiple factions playing multiple sides right now.
As always, great analysis.
Always enjoy your videos
Hello, yes, all great revolutions begin with small ones.......... Thank you very much for your views. I think they are very accurate and pertinent.
Excellent takes. I agree, the situation is far from over and a catastrophe for Putin. There's no coming back from this anymore. This will keep getting worse if Putin does not squash this insubordination. But so far he seems extremely weak, incompetent and clueless. Absolute humiliation.
It's hard to look strong when you're being fed false information. He's been stupid enough to surround himself with yes men.
@@E3ECO
Let's go for nuke then
@@Khairuldean-vz4mp we all wished he would nuke moscow as soon as convoy approached it or at least nuke Rostov and Voronezh earlier... But there's time for everything. It's not IF but when russia will be nuked at this point.
@@KasumiRINA - How can Putin Nuke or even bomb Rostov when it’s the HQ for the entire Ukraine war? All the Russian high command are in Rostov, along with all their military vehicles including tanks, heavy weapons, grads, radar equipment, computer installations, technology gear, IT stuff, intelligence gathering junk, and tons and tons of guns and ammunition. Sure, good idea, that would end the war. Plus….Isn’t there an old Russian joke about bombing Voronezh? Something akin to shooting oneself in the foot.
Putin looked useless in his TV address to castigate the potty mouthed chef's treason, what's he going to say now, can potty mouth trust Belarus's leader, etc., etc.!?!
Hey mr. Nielsen, hey there folks.
Guy from putlerland here. There's a saying in russian that says "Оказался наш отец не отцом а сукою" and currently that applies both to kremlin manlet and baldy bubba's cellmate.
Cheers from putleristan.
According to google translate that means "Our father turned out to be not a father, but a bitch". Is that accurate?
@@ChrisAastrup
Surprisingly neat translation, i'd say.
@@ЕгорПещерский Who is bubba cellmate , please ?
@@mariaf.6601
Caterer and spiritual successor to SS Dirlewanger convicts' death squad was a prison whore for its cellmates back in USSR.
Wait, USA is now called putlerland and putleristan?🤣
We love you , Anders ! ❤
Really hope you’re right that it’s the begging of the end
Great analysis, thanks man!
You post the date on screen, things are moving so fast, you need to post the time also, lol
Will you do update on what happened. I'm literally just lost what is going on??????
Great analysis as always..
On spot, thank you ❤❤❤
Good commentary thanks Anders. Prigozhin is a charismatic warlord. It’s difficult for me to imagine he’ll simply just give it all up and go quietly into exile but that may well happen. Why wouldn’t he opt for retirement in Belarus? I guess we’ll soon see.
Thanks Anders, you always bring perspective and organization to the situation.
When your Chef is cooking up a Batch of Revolution….!
As always concise and absolutely spot on. Thanks!
They can't even organise a coup 😞
It was not about a coup. Prigo only wanted to be out of prison and make/keep billions of money he makes from his african mines. Also he want the russian ministry of defense financing his soldiers (that would have stopped 1st July). I guess Putin payed a lot for this deal.
Not sure it was a coup attempt
It was never meant to be a coup
@@01blaval So Putin dug up the roads leading to moscow for a laugh ?
@@01blaval Special Corporate Reorganization
Always good to hear your thoughts Anders
Thanks for your quick reaction to these events in Russia. Your opinion on this is always very valuable. It will be interesting to see the effects of this on the foreign affairs of Russia considering the presence of the Wagner group in many countries.
When this started, I immediately wanted to know what your take on it would be. Very glad you're chiming in quickly.
@Anders Puck Nielsen • I was hoping you would do a video on this. Thank you once again for your very helpful analysis. 👍
Love you stuff. Funny, you Americanized Wagner. I know you're fluent in Danish, Russian, English and I'd guess you gotta have some German too. Most people in the U.S./U.K. use the German pronunciation for Wagner. Then again you're a multilanguage god :-)
To me it seems like Shoigu did preemptively attack Prigozhin learning or fearing that he was close to pulling something, then immediately branded him a traitor to sideline him. I think if Prigozhin initiated it, Wagner would have been in place and in control of strategic positions much quicker. I think this forced him to rush the timetable up.
Well, I saw the video of the supposed aftermath of the missile attack on Wagner. And I have to say that the running commentary from those filming it was suspiciously precise on what had happened and who was responsible. In a way that two people running to the scene of such an incident would be unlikely to be.
> Wagner would have been in place and in control of strategic positions much quicker.
They were surprisingly quick to do exactly that though. They managed to gain control of Rostov-on-don in a few hours, one of the biggest cities in Southern Russia and the most important supply hub for all troops in South Eastern Ukraine, basically the majority of the Russian army. And in a single day they managed to get within 200 km of Moscow. That is absolutely only possible if this had already been planned beforehand and you had a huge network of collaborators to let it happen. I mean even the Ukrainian army hasn't been able to take positions this quickly, their Kharkiv offensive still took a few days. It seems pretty obvious that Wagner was only this successful because they had collaborators.
@@hedgehog3180 Agree that they had collaborators. So far, I've seen most people attribute Wagner's success in entering Rostov/Voronezh/etc solely to sympathy among Russian forces. However, I think you're right. Even given an enormous amount of sympathy, this wouldn't have happened so quickly in the absence of planning.
Right on. Thanks for sharing.
Thank you for another great explanation Anders.
#russiaisaTerroristState
Victory, Freedom, Full Reparations, and all of Ukraine's Land for Ukraine, this includes Donbas and Crimea! 💙💛
As expected from you, very interesting hearing your "initial thoughts"👍
This is insane. What is his angle?
Why would he stop, this is not going away for proggy.
Or was it a fake all along, i didn't think it was, but now i'm no longer sure.
Man this war is weird.
Makes more sense if you think of it in more medieval/early renaissance terms. Prighozin is a mercenary leader who reminded his boss what happens if you start messing with te paychecks or his company.
Google Sack of Rome.
@@TheStephaneAdam that makes sense for the show of force.
But the stirring the pot with him calling out the lies and going against the narative is kinda out of place.
And he really screwed over the people who came out in support of him, they will be in a heap of trouble and will make anyone think twice of supporting him the next time.
And there will be a next time.
Unless this was a setup organised with putin himself, this is not over for proggy and he will be someone they will want to get rid of at some point in the future.
@@TheStephaneAdam Yeah people still view Russia as a superpower, and this stuff is confusing from that perspective. If we instead imagine Russia is more like Congo or something, then this makes more sense.
Very timely. Great job!
I didn't initially think of this - that way - that this is well planen - but I must admit, the mere fact that Prigozhin is not in jail or killed - points to the fact, that Putin got court off guard ! - It seems Prigozhin has better intel than Putin - The odd for Prigozhin keep rising
I've heard that Putin is in this insulated bubble with his sycophants telling him what he wants to hear, doesn't use the internet either. Typical dictator scenario, so he doesn't really know everything that's going on. If I was Prigozhin I'd be wary about being poisoned and stay away from high rises. I've never seen such an overt coup oriented advance turned around like this. Strange.
If I were Prigozhin, and I had failed in my attempted takeover of Moscow, I would simply withdraw with my mercenary forces to a more secure area. And await Putin's next move. Knowing that whatever action he took, he would also be having to defend against a major Ukrainian counteroffensive. And that I had the ability to severely disrupt that. And potentially lose the whole war for Putin - A kinda 'nuclear option'. Which I'm sure every true Russian patriot could appreciate.
I also initially thought that this outcome discredits Prigo, but now I think that it discredits both equally!
it had to be planned to SOME degree, but it couldn't have been planned all that well, because otherwise he wouldn't take a deal in the first few hours of the revolt. I find it rather weird that he took the deal so quickly. If it would have been planned so well, I just don't see Prigozhin taking a deal. Something super unexpected must have happened for Prigozhin to take a deal like this. It's all rather weird.
@@vyli1 I think it is what it appears to be. A coup. Its not the first in recent Russian history either. In 1991 communist hardliners did the same, and failed. Yeltsin was more successful in 1993 during the October Coup.
I think it was pretty well planned. TV stations were hacked, and put out pro-Prigozhin propaganda. He's been selling himself to all sides. The pro war/anti war/anti corruption crowd (he does run Putin's internet research agency, after all). And he was able to effectively just walk into Rostov.
Thanks for your insights! Always really good to hear
Looks like Prigozhin is off to Belarus making most of what you said not really applicable.
Such a shame prigozhin bottled it, i had the popcorn all ready for a good night in front of the TV....gutted.
Me too😢
"Давайте не поддаваться спокойствию и сохранять панику!" :D
"Товарищи революция отменяется, а теперь дискотека" )))
Any update to this video from you Anders?
I like to get my info from multiple sources but I generally wait for your views before forming a opinion.
It has turned out to be nothing, all over.
Keep dreaming. If Mille did the same thing you wouldn't be down playing it.
Perhaps Prygozhyn is trying to place himself like Kadyrov, in that he has an independent force that works with Putin on his terms
Didn't he have that already?
@@paulhargreaves1497 he had but he got an ultimatum that wagner would be under the mod from july 1st
Great job again Anders! Thank you...
On the other hand, having an "internal threat" can also play into Putin's advantage.
Lytter altid med interesse til dine synspunkter, og på P1🙂keep up the good work 👏
Revolution in Russia?? hjahahahaha then its a Revolution in Sweden too with all the inmigrants
What I want to know is why did the Wagner advance stop? What did Putin and Lukashenko offer Prigozhin to get him to call of an attack that seemed to be working?
Latest news is now that Prigozhin is moving to Belarus. Probably the only place in the world where he might have a chance for survival.
I don't know about that. Belarus is little more than a Russian vassal state. If I were Prigozhin I certainly wouldn't feel safe there.
Thats not confirmed.
@@antred11 Kinda like Germany is little more than a United States vassal?
@@antred11 If I was him I'd be wary as hell of being poisoned and stay away from high rises!
I always enjoy your commentary Anders - please never stop giving us the benefit of your insights. That you can talk so fluently off-script in your 2nd language is admirable.
You look happier than in a long time. I know it's a professional attitude and you get to be the awesome analyst you are.
Hi!, Anders, I used to live in Rude/ dk, great time! even meet the Dansk soldiers in exercise! while camping! *** =)
Mr Putin looks as if he is very annoyed by what is going on.
I'm interested in how annoyed the Oligarchs are.....but they're probably just counting their money.
Tyvm for sharing your educated insight on this matter. Cheers and good health Sir
...❤
Such a shame, would have been great to see those 2 battle it out.
Especially as it could/would/should have caused the Russian forces to have been called home out of Ukraine to meet the threat...