“Many things we do not know”, Anders said. Absolutely. We all can only guess. One plausible possibility is that the existence of the plot was revealed, before Prigozhin+Wagner was completely ready. So they had to accelerate their plan, and their allies inside the MoD were not ready or got cold feet. And so the coup didn’t garner the support they expected, and that resulted in the weird suspension and the Belorussian holiday. Sounds plausible. But we don’t know. We are all guessing!
The 1st July deadline for Wagner fighters to sign Russian MoD contracts may have been the factor which caused the rising to be launched in a slightly hurried fashion. That the timing was on a public holiday where many key people would have been drinking and celebrating is probably more significant.
i still think the amount of support he had in the populace of atleast Rostov and Voronezh was a good indicator and showed he kinda didn't need too many allies and had he been able to take atleast the important centers of Moscow like fx the Kremlin, well i'm pretty sure many would have changed sides and backed him by then anyways. not to mention all the frontline soldiers that offered to come help with his plan, many of which are completely in the shitter right now because they exposed themselves. next time such soldiers will likely not be as willing if they are even alive, they will prob be sent in suicide Counter Offensives when Ukraine retakes towns and cities near them.
Yep, many unknowns as far as Prigozhin's true objectives, but still a good point that now you also have a buncha powerful _Russian_ interests that'd benefit if Putin _fails_ in Ukraine.
@@NiklasMJ Nice story but that he would take some parts of Moscow with 4k soldiers.. Keep on dreaming.. This was not a coup according to Prigozhin, more a mutiny.. But i know you want it to be it because it fits your narrative..
@@anderspuck Hi Anders, are you going to talk about the news that Surovkin has been arrested by the FSB and the rumors that the original goal of Prigozhin might have been to capture Shoigu and Gerasimov in Roztov, (allegedly someone warned them and they escaped the city a few hours before ChVK Vagnera marched in). How do you think it will affect the army that someone like Surovkin might have been involved? Looking forward to your next video on the topic Anders - your work is highly appreciated!!!
Guys, you don't seem to understand how a terrorist state operates. Every man in the army has a family, including high-ranking commanders who have enough men and materiel under command to be able to launch another coup attempt. Those families are all closely watched by fsb or some other agency that is "guarding" them, while in reality they are there to take them hostages in case something like that happens. Why do you think Prigozhin just stopped when there was no force that could make him do so on his road to Moscow? He could have taken anything he wanted and noone could stop him, but he didn't. Why? Because his and his commanders families were taken hostages. A coup is only possible if launched by fsb itself and they are loyal for a moment. Forget about Prigozhin and Wagner, they lost their potential in that regard.
Exactly. Anders is truly insightful. I lived through the Northern Ireland Troubles and "snitches ended up in ditches", punishment shooting, continual betrayal and infighting gainst their own. A TRAITOR is dead meat an ENEMY is different
When the special march operation ended I made the call that Prigozhin is in a better strategic situation now than he was before the insurrection. He lost all the military power he was set to lose anyway and turned it into much political capital, at a cost of a very shaky security situation. But what are a few months without windows to a man that dreams to be king? it was a darkhorse bet 4 days ago but is turning more and more likely he'll actually have a chance to survive his gambit.
I am in total agreement and came to the same realisation at the same time as you. I firmly believe Prigozhin is now sitting in Belarus waiting for the Ukrainian breakthrough that will end Shoigu and the subsequent presidential election in 2024. With a failed SMO on his hands, even a corrupted election process, its hard to imagine Putin being able to win against Progizhin running on a platform of "I told you so"
@@maccaberry1041 Pregozhin may wait in Belarus to the 2024 election in Russia, but I doubt he sees that at his best opportunity. He is not a democrat by any means, and Russian elections are Putin's game. "Elections" that is. But he will almost certainly react if either Russia has a major military collapse i Ukraine - or if someone else tries an open confrontation with Putin. Which this "someone" would be wise to take into consideration, even if it will be hard to predict exactly what Pregozhin wil actually do. And he has to stay alive long enough. He cannot rely on Lukashenko for his safety at all.
I think it almost certain that the July deadline for absorbing the Wagner forces into the Russian army was the trigger that forced Prigorhzin's hand. I think people attribute too much wisdom and planning to him. He's just a terrible person, a horrible murderous criminal in charge of an equally dreadful gang of mercenaries. And he was always completely dependent on Russian army supplies for his activities in Russia. They fed his forces, clothed his forces, armed his forces. Once they pulled the rug under him, he was in a corner.
Yes, that was obviously the trigger, and Putin allegedly stonewalling him about Shoigu's plans to disintegrate Wagner. You don't stonewall an 'ally' like Prigozhin, when your minister of defense is plotting to destroy his PMC. Very shortsighted, and showing weakness. Edit: Putin's weakness and cowardice (fleeing to St Petersburg) have been exposed now. He won't last another year, I guess. But my guesses have notoriously been wrong. I suspected in early 2022 Muscovy would *not* invade. But it did.
I think he got substancial amount of £$€ from his overseas operation, which is of course was not enough to sustain his Ukraine operations. And even it was he needed to be supplied.
@@joonaskekoni2867 Both are true. He is criminal and terrible creature, he gots ammo from russian army, but he is successful and he provides lot of cash to kremlin from all the oil fields, mines and everything his group controls in Africa and Middle East.
Hi Anders. Been looking forward to this, especially in light of the new information regarding the FSB's arrest of Sergei Surovkin. Also the rumors that the original goal for Prigozhin wasn't to march towards Moscow, but to capture Gerasimov and Shoigu in Roztov. Always lookikg forward to your takes. Tusind tak Anders, for at du gider at bruge tid på at dele din indsigt med os - sætter virkelig stor pris på det.
Yes, apparently FSB found out Prigosjin was planning to arrest Sjojgu and Gerasimov, and instead of an easy arrest, it turned to the march for justice....
I could not confirm the arrest of Surovikin. The rumours are abundant, and it's not implausible at all. I just was unable to confirm with a reasonable certainty that he had in fact been arrested as of this moment.
Prigozhin claimed when he started it was not a coup, but to get Shoigu and Gerasimov in a speech. So that wasn't new info whatsoever, just info not found in main stream until another mainstream outlet came with that after the events and posted it as something new.
This is a silly take. What rumors? How was he going to capture gerasimov and shoigu and rostov when they drove for 10 hours to Moscow after rostov? And this video is clickbait as well. There was one shot at prigi's coup d'blyat, when moscow was unequipped to deal with him. When they had to dig roads, bomb bridges, and give machine guns to policemen who, lets be real, aren't trained to use them properly. Now wagner doesn't even really exist. Most wagnerites feel betrayed by prigi, some are joining the russian MoD, some retiring, some playing cricket in Belarus. We can only count on the idea that the Freedom of Russia Legion, Corps and provinces like Dagestan somehow work together with weapons that they just bought in "the supermarkets in Belgorod", little yellow men on domestic vacation. A whole bunch of nothingburger speak from both the comment section, and the fella talking. You are using even less information than publicly available to come to conclusions which are obviously just shots in the dark. I'm not claiming anyone knows the reality of what their agreement was in the end, or what prigi's plan was, I am however claiming that you know less than you should know to talk about the subject. Here are people who covered it in detail, note especially the sources that are from *russian* people themselves, who are far better equipped to understand the inner reality of russian than we are. INSIDE RUSSIA - russian NFKRZ - russian The Russian Dude - russian Vlad Vexler - a very intelligent and sophisticated russian who has lived in London for 25 years Denys Davydov - Ukrainian Operator Starsky (the shills - podcast) - Ukrainian Ukraine Matters - Georgian Mercado Media - US ex soldier and journalist, really good at collecting info Artur Rehi - Estonian - probably has the best reasoning of what happened in the coup - prigi wanted to cash out because he lost upwards of 50.000 soldiers whose salaries he still has to pay.
I absolutely love hearing your analysis. I read a lot of the Ukraine coverage, both milbloggers, social media, mainstream journalism and so on, but I always find you provide me with insights and ideas I haven't heard elsewhere
Some months ago I had a short exchange with Vlad Vexler about how likely a March or October 1917 scenario is. The absence of the so called " trench bolsheviks" at that time pointed against a imminent threat of this. I think now exactly this seed is planted now, especially if Wagner fighters are disseminated through the rank and file of the Russian Army.
As Anders also mentioned in his last video, Prigozhin has the ears of many lower ranking Russian soldiers, and lately he's been brutally honest about the war being built on lies! Sure, he might be dishonest who's to blame, (by not blaming Putin, but solely Gerasimov and Shoigu, saying these two have been lying to Putin). Now soldiers who have been put through hell on earth and lost buddies, rarely take kindly to being told that everything they were fighting for was lies from the elite who just wanted brown nose points so they could become even more powerful back home. So it's going to be interesting to see if this new found awareness will spread in the ranks and how it will manifest itself!
You overestimate wagner soldiers willingness to rebell and underestimate their nationalism. I see no reason for why the should start a new Rebellion when absorbed by the military. The only powerful opposition in russia are the ultra-nationalists and prigozhins short rebellion has shown that such a Rebellion would be much worse for russia than the status quo. It has unified these nationalist behind putin and the military even tho they before were unsatisfied by them.
@@IsomerSoma Don’t overestimate the patriotism of the Russian soldiers. Any soldier will rebel if they don’t get payed and/or mistreated. The simple fact Russia is using blocking forces is a clear sign that Russian forces aren’t all that keen on dying for the motherland. Just imagine being under payed and getting too little supplies for months and some Wagner dude comes along with stories about being well payed and properly supplied with all you could want for. That’s going to crush your moral.
Tak Anders, jeg finder dine fortolkninger af hvad der sker i Rusland og Ukraine utrolig godt fortalt. Jeg ser med glæde frem til dine næste fremlægninger.
I find your analyses very insightful and thank you very much for them the one concern I have with this presentation is your characterization of the Ukrainian counteroffensive as not being very successful. That feeds into Russian propaganda and is contrary to what is happening. Ukraine IS moving forward on ALL fronts.
Just thought you should know that your channel has become my most respected source for understanding the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. You're delivery is perfect, and your knowledge and background really set you apart from anything else available. Thanks Puck!
That copium line was being pushed by disinformation trolls immediately after the insurrection was over. And it got picked up & amplified by a lot of gullible people.
Im a lot of things from my armchair, but we've collectively been calling out Putin's consistently abusive tactics for over a year, and that's when they get more covert and persuasive. Evil stops at nothing, witness the dam. With a nato summit in a couple weeks, nukes moved ostensibly closer, a sledgehammer shuffled around, and a whole lot of wierdness that is not clear based on past or present, but knowing that evil doesnt stop, I'm holding the idea that it might have somehow been a plan to get lined out for an attack pn the NATO summit soon in vilnius. I dont trust any of them: priggys sudden declarations of truth about the war, pitin looking scared, any of them, as all of that can be acted, too. Anyhow im going to be praying for the safety of everyone at the summit until they all get home safely.
@@thinker646 if putin wanted to move Wagners to Belarus and attack from there, HE JUST WOULD. Without announcing. Instead of near-overthrowing himself and announcing to exile ONE single wagnerite to Belarus. Who is reportedly back in russia after spending a few hours in Minsk airport.
@@thinker646 Putin has been showing signs of being Prigo’s puppet since the first sledgehammer case. Milbloggers were concerned about this gruesome execution. They requested Putin to investigate it. He listened. But the end result was change in the russian human rights policies in favor of Prigo and warning for the milbloggers. There was also public outrage over Prigo pardoning the convicts and then telling judge to obey it. Power to do that belongs to only president. But Putin didn’t even try to respond to offended russians. I knew he was gonna be lenient towards Prigo even after whatever he did on his way to Moscow. This isnt the first time some mercenary group has revolted like this.
Good attempt to make sense of all. It seems that everyone has a bit different opinion, but I think most commentators seem to kind of agree that this was the most bizarre shitshow we've seen from Russia so far and that it didn't really play for well for anyone in Russian elite. But I have a request for a topic: What do you think about the prospects of "active (even rushed?) counteroffensive" vs. "defensive warfare" if Ukraine should practise either one?
This is a fantastically good analysis of the power dynamics in Russia at the moment, Thanks Anders, keep up the good work. I would like to see this kind of work coming out of the Pentagon or the UK MOD.
Fantastic video. One of your best. Putin must be incredibly week if he is letting Wagner reassemble in Belarus. Surely he has to recall the nuclear weapons he sent there rather than risk them being captured by an army of battle hardened mercenaries.
Maybe non-partisan in analysis as a professional. But as a Dane his country had to wait for another year after WW2 before the Russians finally left a Danish island.
My two cents about this: For months now Prigoshin complained about the lack of support from the Russian military. And then the final blow came when Wagner should be integrated into the Russian military, meaning the power of Prigoshin is gone. So he reacted like a dog in the corner: there's only one way out, meaning to attack, whatever the costs may be, and hoping that there will come something out of it. The last straw, in a way. Prigoshin is a mixture of cold blooded mass murderer and a highly impulsive man. That's why he is sort of unpredictable, and I think Putin wanted, with the integration of the Wagner forces, to get rid of him in an unspectacular way. But with the unpredictability of Prigoshin it turned out to be a march towards Moscow with little to no resistance of the Russian military, but ended in an impossible situation. So my conclusion is, that you cannot always explain what happens with logic. The irrationality of human beings plays always an important part.
I'm always excited to see a new video from you! Your insights and analysis always shed light on these confusing events and provide food for thought. Your efforts are much appreciated!
Nice, I'm up late enough as a North American to catch an upload by you. 51 seconds ago is definitely my personal best, lol! Thanks for your constant updates and perspectives on the war and the internal politics in Russia. The world is definitely heading in a different direction than we thought during the early 2010's. Always looking forward to your next video. Love from Canada 🇨🇦
It was not a coup attempt. It was a mutiny against the military hierarchy. Period. You have a great grasp of what’s happening between Russia and Ukraine and 99% of it. I agree with you.
Prigozhin's wife: "Where've you been? You were gone all morning!" Prig: "Oh, me and the guys marched on Moscow. Almost took over Russia. I changed my mind at the last minute. Then I was exiled to Belarus. Except the President of Russia bolted and vanished so I left. Had to take the bus because we gave up our tanks....." wife: "You realize we had 3 catering orders at the Kremlin to fill today?
@@dpelpal "That doesn't pay the bills, don't offer meals or wars for free, how many times do I have to tell you to always wait with overtaking countries til they've paid the bills?"
As far as i have understood the details , it was not an insurrection or coup, Prigozhin's entire business was under threat of liquidation and being desolved and absorbed into the Russian military. This was the last chance he had to save his business, he is not a political actor so he was not about to jump into Putins shoes he merely leveraged his advantage which is his military strength in order to force Putin to concede to him keeping his business interests and hence his status.
whenever i watch a clip of yours, i know more afterwards than i did before - and it's always thoughts that make me think, why didn't i think of that myself - extremely good assessments, you're a smart man
Thank you for your thoughts and analysis Anders! Victory, Freedom, Full Reparations, and all of Ukraine's Land for Ukraine, this includes Donbas and Crimea!
Dear Anders, thanks for your work and for today's thoughts! After listening to you, seems that a 2nd insurrection isn't excluded... ordering popcorn (as Ukrainians wrote...)! I totally agree with you. I like you mentioning that mini- Tsar can't have confidence any more in the system! Also your suggestions on Lukashenko's motivation sound reasonable (btw Ukrainians nickname him "Potato- Führer" as Belarus is known for potatoes- bulba's). After Prigozhin everyone in russia saw that "the Emporer is naked" quoting your greate compatriot Hans Christian Andersen „Kejserens nye Klæder“! His folktales are very well known and loved in post- Soviet countries!
Great analysis as always. What I really like about your channel, is that not only do you provide a solid analysis, you also provide the tools for us to do our own. Keep it up, good Sir! I think it will extremely interesting to see what implications this will have in coutries that have been tempted by security solutions provided by Russia/Wagner, i.e. Mali. Or what will happen in Belarus when Lukashenko dies....
Mit das Beste was man findet über diesen Krieg. Danke Herr Nielsen für die anschaulich vorgetragenen sehr klaren Gedanken.
Ach so! Teufel! Noch ein mal "Die dumme d@nen"! Gruss Gott fur unser Klaus Schwab aus Regensburg. Und Adolfs tochter Angela!
Es gibt auch Perun
@@Sofus. Klar unser freund Peron. Immer!
🙏🕊🌻🔱 Excellent Update! Ukraine is Strong! Glory to Ukraine! Glory to the Heroes! The World Stays Committed! 🔱🌻🕊🙏
“Many things we do not know”, Anders said. Absolutely. We all can only guess. One plausible possibility is that the existence of the plot was revealed, before Prigozhin+Wagner was completely ready. So they had to accelerate their plan, and their allies inside the MoD were not ready or got cold feet. And so the coup didn’t garner the support they expected, and that resulted in the weird suspension and the Belorussian holiday.
Sounds plausible. But we don’t know. We are all guessing!
The 1st July deadline for Wagner fighters to sign Russian MoD contracts may have been the factor which caused the rising to be launched in a slightly hurried fashion. That the timing was on a public holiday where many key people would have been drinking and celebrating is probably more significant.
i still think the amount of support he had in the populace of atleast Rostov and Voronezh was a good indicator and showed he kinda didn't need too many allies and had he been able to take atleast the important centers of Moscow like fx the Kremlin, well i'm pretty sure many would have changed sides and backed him by then anyways. not to mention all the frontline soldiers that offered to come help with his plan, many of which are completely in the shitter right now because they exposed themselves. next time such soldiers will likely not be as willing if they are even alive, they will prob be sent in suicide Counter Offensives when Ukraine retakes towns and cities near them.
This is the most plausible explanation I heard so far 👍🏼
Yep, many unknowns as far as Prigozhin's true objectives, but still a good point that now you also have a buncha powerful _Russian_ interests that'd benefit if Putin _fails_ in Ukraine.
@@NiklasMJ Nice story but that he would take some parts of Moscow with 4k soldiers.. Keep on dreaming.. This was not a coup according to Prigozhin, more a mutiny.. But i know you want it to be it because it fits your narrative..
You are: T.V.R. (The Voice of Reason). It's a joy that's lasts forever. No hype. Just clear level headed facts. What a concept! Thank you.
Another Wagner insurrection is in development? Finally a sequel I am excited for!
Yes, will definitely be worth following if it happens. :-)
Anders and Jake doing excellent work !
@@anderspuck
Hi Anders, are you going to talk about the news that Surovkin has been arrested by the FSB and the rumors that the original goal of Prigozhin might have been to capture Shoigu and Gerasimov in Roztov, (allegedly someone warned them and they escaped the city a few hours before ChVK Vagnera marched in).
How do you think it will affect the army that someone like Surovkin might have been involved?
Looking forward to your next video on the topic Anders - your work is highly appreciated!!!
Omg Jake is Anders's bro! ❤🎉😊
Guys, you don't seem to understand how a terrorist state operates. Every man in the army has a family, including high-ranking commanders who have enough men and materiel under command to be able to launch another coup attempt. Those families are all closely watched by fsb or some other agency that is "guarding" them, while in reality they are there to take them hostages in case something like that happens.
Why do you think Prigozhin just stopped when there was no force that could make him do so on his road to Moscow? He could have taken anything he wanted and noone could stop him, but he didn't. Why? Because his and his commanders families were taken hostages.
A coup is only possible if launched by fsb itself and they are loyal for a moment. Forget about Prigozhin and Wagner, they lost their potential in that regard.
Exactly. Anders is truly insightful. I lived through the Northern Ireland Troubles and "snitches ended up in ditches", punishment shooting, continual betrayal and infighting gainst their own. A TRAITOR is dead meat an ENEMY is different
When the special march operation ended I made the call that Prigozhin is in a better strategic situation now than he was before the insurrection. He lost all the military power he was set to lose anyway and turned it into much political capital, at a cost of a very shaky security situation. But what are a few months without windows to a man that dreams to be king?
it was a darkhorse bet 4 days ago but is turning more and more likely he'll actually have a chance to survive his gambit.
Because wouldn't he be dead by now?
@@charisma-hornum-fries i there is no reason for him to be left alive thats for sure. what would killing him do to harm putins position?
I am in total agreement and came to the same realisation at the same time as you. I firmly believe Prigozhin is now sitting in Belarus waiting for the Ukrainian breakthrough that will end Shoigu and the subsequent presidential election in 2024. With a failed SMO on his hands, even a corrupted election process, its hard to imagine Putin being able to win against Progizhin running on a platform of "I told you so"
@@maccaberry1041makes a lot of sense 👍🏼
@@maccaberry1041 Pregozhin may wait in Belarus to the 2024 election in Russia, but I doubt he sees that at his best opportunity. He is not a democrat by any means, and Russian elections are Putin's game. "Elections" that is.
But he will almost certainly react if either Russia has a major military collapse i Ukraine - or if someone else tries an open confrontation with Putin. Which this "someone" would be wise to take into consideration, even if it will be hard to predict exactly what Pregozhin wil actually do.
And he has to stay alive long enough. He cannot rely on Lukashenko for his safety at all.
I think it almost certain that the July deadline for absorbing the Wagner forces into the Russian army was the trigger that forced Prigorhzin's hand. I think people attribute too much wisdom and planning to him. He's just a terrible person, a horrible murderous criminal in charge of an equally dreadful gang of mercenaries. And he was always completely dependent on Russian army supplies for his activities in Russia. They fed his forces, clothed his forces, armed his forces. Once they pulled the rug under him, he was in a corner.
Yes, that was obviously the trigger, and Putin allegedly stonewalling him about Shoigu's plans to disintegrate Wagner.
You don't stonewall an 'ally' like Prigozhin, when your minister of defense is plotting to destroy his PMC. Very shortsighted, and showing weakness.
Edit: Putin's weakness and cowardice (fleeing to St Petersburg) have been exposed now. He won't last another year, I guess. But my guesses have notoriously been wrong. I suspected in early 2022 Muscovy would *not* invade. But it did.
I think he got substancial amount of £$€ from his overseas operation, which is of course was not enough to sustain his Ukraine operations. And even it was he needed to be supplied.
@@joonaskekoni2867 Both are true. He is criminal and terrible creature, he gots ammo from russian army, but he is successful and he provides lot of cash to kremlin from all the oil fields, mines and everything his group controls in Africa and Middle East.
Thanks, I agree with you!
You, Perun and Preston are the only people I’m willing to trust in these times of misinformation literally flying across all platforms
Thanks Anders
With the difference that Perun makes most people fall asleep :)
I agree! Anders and Perun are the best!
Thanks. I am glad to hear that.
Anders is undoubtedly the best!👍 I also trust ATP Geopolitics and Professor Gerdes they are both honest with their bias and try to reflect both sides.
@@JakeBroe What day of the disastrous invasion is it, Jake?
You're pretty good too m8!
Kjempebra. Rett og slett den beste analytiker i dette feltet i Skandinavia. Hilsen fra Oslo.
Heilt sant 👍🏻🙂
Hvad er "Bilderberg Gruppen"? Hvem startede den og hvem er med I den?
@@vinozarazzi5633 Det er et samarbejde imellem Frimurere, rumvæsner og øglerne der lever inde i den hule jord. Det ved alle da.
@@vinozarazzi5633Har du gått deg bort? Hva har konspivrøvel med denne videoen å gjøre?
@@WreckedRectum Jens Stoltenberg, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Mette Frederiksen, Macron - all members of SS Von Lippes "Bilderberg". Start thinking please?
Hi Anders.
Been looking forward to this, especially in light of the new information regarding the FSB's arrest of Sergei Surovkin.
Also the rumors that the original goal for Prigozhin wasn't to march towards Moscow, but to capture Gerasimov and Shoigu in Roztov.
Always lookikg forward to your takes.
Tusind tak Anders, for at du gider at bruge tid på at dele din indsigt med os - sætter virkelig stor pris på det.
General Surrenderin'' was arrested?!
Yes, apparently FSB found out Prigosjin was planning to arrest Sjojgu and Gerasimov, and instead of an easy arrest, it turned to the march for justice....
I could not confirm the arrest of Surovikin. The rumours are abundant, and it's not implausible at all. I just was unable to confirm with a reasonable certainty that he had in fact been arrested as of this moment.
Prigozhin claimed when he started it was not a coup, but to get Shoigu and Gerasimov in a speech. So that wasn't new info whatsoever, just info not found in main stream until another mainstream outlet came with that after the events and posted it as something new.
This is a silly take. What rumors? How was he going to capture gerasimov and shoigu and rostov when they drove for 10 hours to Moscow after rostov?
And this video is clickbait as well. There was one shot at prigi's coup d'blyat, when moscow was unequipped to deal with him. When they had to dig roads, bomb bridges, and give machine guns to policemen who, lets be real, aren't trained to use them properly.
Now wagner doesn't even really exist. Most wagnerites feel betrayed by prigi, some are joining the russian MoD, some retiring, some playing cricket in Belarus. We can only count on the idea that the Freedom of Russia Legion, Corps and provinces like Dagestan somehow work together with weapons that they just bought in "the supermarkets in Belgorod", little yellow men on domestic vacation.
A whole bunch of nothingburger speak from both the comment section, and the fella talking. You are using even less information than publicly available to come to conclusions which are obviously just shots in the dark. I'm not claiming anyone knows the reality of what their agreement was in the end, or what prigi's plan was, I am however claiming that you know less than you should know to talk about the subject.
Here are people who covered it in detail, note especially the sources that are from *russian* people themselves, who are far better equipped to understand the inner reality of russian than we are.
INSIDE RUSSIA - russian
NFKRZ - russian
The Russian Dude - russian
Vlad Vexler - a very intelligent and sophisticated russian who has lived in London for 25 years
Denys Davydov - Ukrainian
Operator Starsky (the shills - podcast) - Ukrainian
Ukraine Matters - Georgian
Mercado Media - US ex soldier and journalist, really good at collecting info
Artur Rehi - Estonian - probably has the best reasoning of what happened in the coup - prigi wanted to cash out because he lost upwards of 50.000 soldiers whose salaries he still has to pay.
I absolutely love hearing your analysis. I read a lot of the Ukraine coverage, both milbloggers, social media, mainstream journalism and so on, but I always find you provide me with insights and ideas I haven't heard elsewhere
this, him and Perun are two of the best people analysing events with a longer term and strategic lens
Intentiinally placed bones will be fetched by dogs and shown to a master.....Thank you sir for a great service.❤
Some months ago I had a short exchange with Vlad Vexler about how likely a March or October 1917 scenario is.
The absence of the so called " trench bolsheviks" at that time pointed against a imminent threat of this.
I think now exactly this seed is planted now, especially if Wagner fighters are disseminated through the rank and file of the Russian Army.
As Anders also mentioned in his last video, Prigozhin has the ears of many lower ranking Russian soldiers, and lately he's been brutally honest about the war being built on lies!
Sure, he might be dishonest who's to blame, (by not blaming Putin, but solely Gerasimov and Shoigu, saying these two have been lying to Putin).
Now soldiers who have been put through hell on earth and lost buddies, rarely take kindly to being told that everything they were fighting for was lies from the elite who just wanted brown nose points so they could become even more powerful back home.
So it's going to be interesting to see if this new found awareness will spread in the ranks and how it will manifest itself!
Very interesting point!
They might send them all to border duties in Siberia just in case.
You overestimate wagner soldiers willingness to rebell and underestimate their nationalism. I see no reason for why the should start a new Rebellion when absorbed by the military. The only powerful opposition in russia are the ultra-nationalists and prigozhins short rebellion has shown that such a Rebellion would be much worse for russia than the status quo. It has unified these nationalist behind putin and the military even tho they before were unsatisfied by them.
@@IsomerSoma Don’t overestimate the patriotism of the Russian soldiers. Any soldier will rebel if they don’t get payed and/or mistreated. The simple fact Russia is using blocking forces is a clear sign that Russian forces aren’t all that keen on dying for the motherland.
Just imagine being under payed and getting too little supplies for months and some Wagner dude comes along with stories about being well payed and properly supplied with all you could want for. That’s going to crush your moral.
@@IsomerSoma So why did they revolt in the first place? Mutiny has been in the air for months. Putin is sacrificing people at a disturbing rate.
Thank you! Four brilliant points!
Two videos in a week! We’re blessed
You have class sir! excellent work!
Interesting 👍
Thank you very much!
Det er en fornøjelse, stærkt vanedannende og uhyrer interesseret at høre dine analyser, Anders. 💪💪💪💪
Tak Anders, jeg finder dine fortolkninger af hvad der sker i Rusland og Ukraine utrolig godt fortalt. Jeg ser med glæde frem til dine næste fremlægninger.
Thanks for the insight. We appreciate you.
(from Denver, Colorado)
Excellent analysis as always
How are all your videos 🔥🔥 thank you Anders
Great analysis thanks
Always good to hear your insights.
Thank you.
How timely! Thanks for quickly getting this out to us!
Det er så beroligende lige at have dig i baghånden, Anders, inden det hele løber mentalt løbsk.
The whole thing is a mindfest. Thank you for your wise words.👍
I find your analyses very insightful and thank you very much for them the one concern I have with this presentation is your characterization of the Ukrainian counteroffensive as not being very successful. That feeds into Russian propaganda and is contrary to what is happening. Ukraine IS moving forward on ALL fronts.
Just thought you should know that your channel has become my most respected source for understanding the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. You're delivery is perfect, and your knowledge and background really set you apart from anything else available. Thanks Puck!
Interesting perspective. I agree, this is going to get interesting.
Thank you for your work. I enjoy watching and listening. I learn.
LOL i cannot believe that some people thought Putin will put himself in this situation JUST to move troops to Belarus and attack from there 😂
That copium line was being pushed by disinformation trolls immediately after the insurrection was over. And it got picked up & amplified by a lot of gullible people.
Im a lot of things from my armchair, but we've collectively been calling out Putin's consistently abusive tactics for over a year, and that's when they get more covert and persuasive. Evil stops at nothing, witness the dam. With a nato summit in a couple weeks, nukes moved ostensibly closer, a sledgehammer shuffled around, and a whole lot of wierdness that is not clear based on past or present, but knowing that evil doesnt stop, I'm holding the idea that it might have somehow been a plan to get lined out for an attack pn the NATO summit soon in vilnius. I dont trust any of them: priggys sudden declarations of truth about the war, pitin looking scared, any of them, as all of that can be acted, too. Anyhow im going to be praying for the safety of everyone at the summit until they all get home safely.
@@thinker646 if putin wanted to move Wagners to Belarus and attack from there, HE JUST WOULD. Without announcing. Instead of near-overthrowing himself and announcing to exile ONE single wagnerite to Belarus. Who is reportedly back in russia after spending a few hours in Minsk airport.
@@thinker646 Putin has been showing signs of being Prigo’s puppet since the first sledgehammer case. Milbloggers were concerned about this gruesome execution. They requested Putin to investigate it. He listened. But the end result was change in the russian human rights policies in favor of Prigo and warning for the milbloggers. There was also public outrage over Prigo pardoning the convicts and then telling judge to obey it. Power to do that belongs to only president. But Putin didn’t even try to respond to offended russians. I knew he was gonna be lenient towards Prigo even after whatever he did on his way to Moscow. This isnt the first time some mercenary group has revolted like this.
You are an excellent speaker. Everything is explained so clearly. Thank you.
Thanks for sharing your intellectual point of view on the matter.
Always inciteful. from Pittsburgh PA
Thank you for this information Video & honest opinion. Excellent.
Thanks. I always think about this conflict in a new way after watching your videos.
Thanks!
Good attempt to make sense of all. It seems that everyone has a bit different opinion, but I think most commentators seem to kind of agree that this was the most bizarre shitshow we've seen from Russia so far and that it didn't really play for well for anyone in Russian elite. But I have a request for a topic: What do you think about the prospects of "active (even rushed?) counteroffensive" vs. "defensive warfare" if Ukraine should practise either one?
Excellent analysis as always. Before watching one of your video's the waters are dark and murky, after things become more clear, thank you.
This is a fantastically good analysis of the power dynamics in Russia at the moment, Thanks Anders, keep up the good work. I would like to see this kind of work coming out of the Pentagon or the UK MOD.
I always appreciate your perspective... thank you
Fantastic video. One of your best.
Putin must be incredibly week if he is letting Wagner reassemble in Belarus. Surely he has to recall the nuclear weapons he sent there rather than risk them being captured by an army of battle hardened mercenaries.
Thanks for the analysis! I look to you for an informed opinion
as a curious layman, although trying to stay informed of facts regarding world affairs, most value your insight.. thanks from the carolinas
Thank you Anders! So good to have non-partisan analysis!!!
Maybe non-partisan in analysis as a professional. But as a Dane his country had to wait for another year after WW2 before the Russians finally left a Danish island.
Good on you for transitioning to Mastadon. Will follow you.
You can find me as @anderspuck@krigskunst.social.
Thanks for the update
I like the way your mind works.
My two cents about this:
For months now Prigoshin complained about the lack of support from the Russian military. And then the final blow came when Wagner should be integrated into the Russian military, meaning the power of Prigoshin is gone.
So he reacted like a dog in the corner: there's only one way out, meaning to attack, whatever the costs may be, and hoping that there will come something out of it. The last straw, in a way. Prigoshin is a mixture of cold blooded mass murderer and a highly impulsive man. That's why he is sort of unpredictable, and I think Putin wanted, with the integration of the Wagner forces, to get rid of him in an unspectacular way.
But with the unpredictability of Prigoshin it turned out to be a march towards Moscow with little to no resistance of the Russian military, but ended in an impossible situation.
So my conclusion is, that you cannot always explain what happens with logic. The irrationality of human beings plays always an important part.
He is trying to explain why women cry.
Being potentially impulsive and unpredictable (or being believed to be so) can be a great and rational strategy also
inside russia says prigoshin is not in Belarus
Your explanation is very logical :) Just in our analysis we need to include impulsive behavior of actors.
That's not even worth the two cents, pure garbage.
Nail on the head as usual.
Very interesting! Thank you.
A very interesting take on the topic. Thank you.
Another fabulous video. Thank you!👴🏻🇦🇺
Great stuff, Anders. Thank you.
I'm always excited to see a new video from you! Your insights and analysis always shed light on these confusing events and provide food for thought. Your efforts are much appreciated!
Always good!
yeah, your analysis makes sense of the twists and turns
Thank you Anders
Thank you ❤
Anders - you are a wonderful analyst. Thank you
~David
Thank you for such an excellent analysis
Nice, I'm up late enough as a North American to catch an upload by you. 51 seconds ago is definitely my personal best, lol!
Thanks for your constant updates and perspectives on the war and the internal politics in Russia. The world is definitely heading in a different direction than we thought during the early 2010's.
Always looking forward to your next video. Love from Canada 🇨🇦
Same!
Prigozhin 2 Electric Bugaloo?
Excellent as always Anders. Keep 'em coming though I know you are a busy man.
Brilliant analysis as usual👍
You are a genius , don't hold back just go with it you are on the right track ! Great job .
Thanks for the video
As always, Slava Ukraini! 🇨🇦🇺🇦
Interesting. Thank you.
Always a good morning when Anders Mr Rational Naboer drops a video.
appreciate your insights!
Thanks
this guy dosen't miss!
Very percipient. Thx!
It was not a coup attempt. It was a mutiny against the military hierarchy. Period. You have a great grasp of what’s happening between Russia and Ukraine and 99% of it. I agree with you.
Great insight and content. Love it
Prigozhin's wife: "Where've you been? You were gone all morning!"
Prig: "Oh, me and the guys marched on Moscow. Almost took over Russia. I changed my mind at the last minute. Then I was exiled to Belarus. Except the President of Russia bolted and vanished so I left. Had to take the bus because we gave up our tanks....."
wife: "You realize we had 3 catering orders at the Kremlin to fill today?
"But babe, I almost took over the whole country."😪
Prig: Catering orders? Let them eat cake! (excuse my mixed revolutions)
@@pro-libertatibus Soon will be offering Tea Service .
@@SourVodka Poured from a mined-in-Africa golden samovar and served In little glass cups ---- Polonium-210 optional.
@@dpelpal
"That doesn't pay the bills, don't offer meals or wars for free, how many times do I have to tell you to always wait with overtaking countries til they've paid the bills?"
In a swamp of so called "information" this is a source we can trust.
Thanks for the update! Great as usual!
Very Very interesting!
As far as i have understood the details , it was not an insurrection or coup, Prigozhin's entire business was under threat of liquidation and being desolved and absorbed into the Russian military. This was the last chance he had to save his business, he is not a political actor so he was not about to jump into Putins shoes he merely leveraged his advantage which is his military strength in order to force Putin to concede to him keeping his business interests and hence his status.
Anders... We like your insights....
whenever i watch a clip of yours, i know more afterwards than i did before - and it's always thoughts that make me think, why didn't i think of that myself - extremely good assessments, you're a smart man
Thank you for your thoughts and analysis Anders!
Victory, Freedom, Full Reparations, and all of Ukraine's Land for Ukraine, this includes Donbas and Crimea!
always a good analysis and detailed explanation - godt gået Anders
I enjoy the way you inject rational though into social media chaos.
A hair out of sync audio on my end, enjoyed the content keep it going. :)
Thank you Anders. Great analysis, as always! BTW, what is the latest news about Gazprom PMC?
Congrats on 100K subscribers!
This sort of needs an update now that we are told Prigozhin and Putin met at the Kremlin since the mutiny, I'd say.
Rumor has it that Prig has requested ground floor offices in Belarus.
Excellent analysis, as always. Thanks!
Good point about the difference between an "enemy" and a "traitor".
Thank you, Anders. Your analysis is always well informed and thought provoking.
"A coup is impossible until it is inevitable."
Dear Anders, thanks for your work and for today's thoughts! After listening to you, seems that a 2nd insurrection isn't excluded... ordering popcorn (as Ukrainians wrote...)!
I totally agree with you.
I like you mentioning that mini- Tsar can't have confidence any more in the system!
Also your suggestions on Lukashenko's motivation sound reasonable (btw Ukrainians nickname him "Potato- Führer" as Belarus is known for potatoes- bulba's).
After Prigozhin everyone in russia saw that "the Emporer is naked" quoting your greate compatriot Hans Christian Andersen „Kejserens nye Klæder“! His folktales are very well known and loved in post- Soviet countries!
Great analysis as always. What I really like about your channel, is that not only do you provide a solid analysis, you also provide the tools for us to do our own. Keep it up, good Sir!
I think it will extremely interesting to see what implications this will have in coutries that have been tempted by security solutions provided by Russia/Wagner, i.e. Mali.
Or what will happen in Belarus when Lukashenko dies....