@@charlygriffin2828 The Ukrainian defence group of nations has way more productive capacity, and it is sustainable, than Russia. RUclipsr Mark Biernat (monetary economist) calculates the Russian economy will hit a wall in 2025. A rouble will become worthless, even to Russians.
But Ukraine is rich and bigger than Russia it has population larger than russia.usa will fight for Ukraine. Russia Is begging for weapons and saying give me money. Russia economy is subsided by foreign power. Ukraine demography is in boom and Russia have run away to take refugees in West and they are not planning to return back 😂😂😂
@@prashantshiwakoti5690 Yes, it's surprising very few people mention that Ukraine is larger than Russia and has a much larger population, so Russia will run out of men way sooner than Ukraine
@@NJ-wb1czin Short it’s not about the population but the actual mobilization Russia has a bigger potential because of its population Ukraine can mobilize more of its population because the willingness for war of its population is bigger The word is war support So Putin has to be more careful when forcibly conscripting soldiers which he did one time in the poorer areas of Russia because of backlash This means russia pays its soldiers a small fortune to fight Mobilization will be on the table again but as last time with significant political drawbacks which seem so severe that Putin is so scared of them to do literally anything else in terms of recruiting before resorting to this Ukraine has the smaller population smaller economy and less land But it can use its resources more efficiently then Russia which you can see in the kill ratios of both sides, the drone war etc. Russia just can’t use its manpower pool most of the time
Rule 1 of war: Don't pick a fight with countries who are richer than you. Rule 2 if war: Don't pick a fight with countries whose friends are richer than you.
Friends who show for three year they don't interesting in victory of yours or even civilized peaceful coexistence on European continent. It's insanity, just use million people as living shield, when at that time buying russian gas&oil and support restoration kremlins potential for continue russian war in Ukraine. It's seems not friendship when not motivated stop kremlin war for save Ukrainian population or giving full aid for it.Endless genocide by endless war it's not friendships. When helping dictatorship regimes from both sides forbiden human rights and conventions and freedom choice. After all so rich friends which friends if for continue war against freedom and democracy and lives of ordinary population, especially victims of war in Ukraine which forbbiden human rights and conventions and freedom choice save lives from danger situation with kremlin drones, missles or nuclear strikes...War for extermination of ordinary population which less then more after all. Genocidian Endless kremlins strike to ukrainian people from technologies and money of friends to kremlin. Why not stop genocide relatively as in Kosovo or Ukrainian population not deserved it? Humanes relationship as in Kosovo?
@@sanguiniuethe thing is, they already have. Vlad Vexler actually pointed this out in a couple of his videos, where he talks about the neoliberal ruzzian thought process of weighing the potential risks and benefits when singing up to the meatgrinder, and the Kremlin doubling the paycheck as a means of increasing the number of contractors.
Living here in Kharkiv, I always find your commentary informative and I appreciate the depth of your analysis, Anders. Many thanks for your continued reports.
Lol odd choice of playlists you have there "Native American pow wow songs" All titled in English , Remind me Ukraine is an English speaking country right?
Yesterday l found out how high real inflation is in Russia. I was watching a Russian video on RUclips and an advert appeared from a bank offering 25% interest on savings. It also tells you there is a shortage of capital
In the first year after sanctions have been empowered. Inflation in Russia was as high as 60%… from that high level on its now rising about 20% y/y and higher. 😊
Yeah, it has been extremely bad and getting worse since 2022, sadly the western press is busy talking about how Russia can keep this up forever to actually fact check any politician's or Russian state media claim.
Oh wow the Nation we destroyed 50% of their GDP while they underwent shock therapy is somehow Low On Capital. It is almost like we destroyed their standard of living and now they are trying to regain power through the only way they can. WAR.
Very sensible analysis. Lots of bots trying to persuade western audiences to abandon Ukraine, Russia has too much resource etc. Even Their revised budget increasing 20+% again is all about convincing people they have no intention to stop until Ukraine falls. They can and will keep going (Putin has no other option) but they will inevitably collapse at some point. West strategy should be to protect Ukraine and save as many lives until that day. They could be doing much more in that respect
Please explain how Ukraine will win this conflict, specifically this war of attrition. Russia has a population of 160 million, while Ukraine currently has a population of 20 million. Who runs out of soldiers first? The West has already poured $300 billion into Ukraine and it has not stopped Russia. Europe and the USA's weapon stores are being depleted and they lack the industrial capacity to replenish them at the rate that Ukraine is consuming them. What more can the West do, other than use nuclear weapons? There is no appetite among fighting age men in the collective West to fight Russia. A recent survey showed that if conscripted, 70% would refuse to go.
@@terencedonohoe9123 I just wanted to say that labeling those who have a different opinion with bots means that those who use those labels have poor or no argumentation. I live in a country whose soldiers left their bones in Russia three times in the last 200 years fighting for others, and against the Russians, it is legitimate to question whether to do it for the fourth time, especially knowing the fact that the Russian army has never been in the country where I live.
Russia believed its own hype. Having a huge land mass with lots of natural resources and a bellicose/shouty leadership does not a superpower make. You can view Russia in a completely different light: a huge, sparsely populated country that doesn’t have the GDP to maintain and develop its own resources. It actually has the same amount of sealed motorway as Taiwan, despite russia being about 500x the size. That alone should raise eyebrows. It’s got the same GDP as Texas despite being 25x bigger and 5x the population. Every stat you look at puts Russia at a huge disadvantage, until you start counting nukes. But I think Russia knows that thats just not going to cut it anymore.
Ha ha ha what a load of rubbish .. a carefully pieced together load of horsesh***t ,,,... Since when did a tank need need sealed motorway using GDP as a barometer for a countries wealth is flawed a load of Wall Street bankers or Texas oil billionaires can skew figures that mask the thousands of zombies living on the streets of Austin Dallas Fort Worth and Lubbock
This is why its so important to commit to long term investments in the Ukrainian defence industry. Putin will only negotiate in good faith when he knows he cannot win!
Good faith? Too late. They should have adhered to the Budapest Memorandum, which Russia presumably signed in "good faith". Then they wouldn't have this problem.
When they understand they lost that war, they'll get rid of Putin. Putin will not be given a chance to negotiate. It's too late for him. He should have negotiated in the summer of 2022. I'm guessing the FSB will dismiss Putin and they will negotiate. The sooner the better.
I mean, if anyone seriously believes that 1) Russia's economy is fine, let alone booming 2) Russia can sustain this forever and 3) Russia can never lose, they should not be journalists because they lack elemental critical thinking.
At the same time, if you think the winner will be a country who's population has dwindled to 25 million because almost half it's people would rather flee than fight for it, and which is dependent on foreign sponsors for whom this is absolutely not an existential issue and who have a far greater opponent and a far more important conflict (CHINA, TAIWAN) you should probably learn how to think. Ukrainian lines are already buckling because they have neither enough men nor enough equipment nor enough ammo. The signs are obvious it takes someone who is unwilling to see them to not see them.
@@LumineScientiaeFidei "Ukrainian lines are buckling" says the country that still hasn't taken Chasiv Yar after 1.5 years and has advanced roughly 30km in nearly 3 years. What is that? 27 meters per day? At that rate you'll reach Kyiv (~700km from Avdiivka) in... 71 years? NATO countries are already signing long term support agreements. Norway just signed a $5-6b agreement that funds Ukraine until 2030. We're ready for a long term war. Combined GDP of EU+US is $51 trillion vs Russia's $2 trillion. That's 25 times the size. Who do you think is more prepared economically for a war of attrition? Meanwhile Putin's NWF will run dry in Q1/Q2 2025 which means no slush fund to plug budget deficits and nobody to borrow from. And his Soviet hand-me-downs will be exhausted by the end of next year. Hyperinflation and collapse is Russia's future under Putin.
Before this war started it was commonly stated that Russia's economy was the same size as Italy's. But not as diverse...why do we know often see Russia as some kind of superpower. It isn't.
In the best years, when oil prices are very high, yes maybe a top ten economy in the world. But on average they are more like the Netherlands ~15-18 in the world. The West is keeping Ukraine alive (unfortunately not more than that) basically without even noticing.
That’s because Russia can make more tanks out of an Italy sized budget than Italy. Because labor (and life) in Russia is cheap. And also: Nukes. Russia isn’t a global power, it’s more of a global nuisance.
@@Grimshak81 This. It's how Russia chooses to invest and its impact on the world that makes it a 'superpower'. Take away their nukes, aggression and absurd military spending and they're nothing special. This is also why imo so many Russians resist change.... they don't want to be 'no better than Italy and leagues below Germany'. They want to continue believing they are something special, not the nuisance they really are.
Russia is not a superpower. They have superpower nostalgia. Their entire economy is worth less than that of Italy. Or, about the same as Belgium + Netherlands. And yes, they will run out of equipment, its happening already as we can see with their use of motorcycles, Chinese 'golf carts' etc. I think it will happen sooner rather than later, as Russia would also need to preserve a minimum for protection against perceived incoming threats
@@ignatziusturret5641 Recently, Russians have suffered significant losses on the battlefield. They nearly surrounded Kyiv, occupied Kherson, and advanced toward Kharkiv, but were eventually pushed back.
The situation in Russia is like that guy who jumped from a skyscraper. When he reached the 50th floor, he was asked from a window how everything was going. He replied that so far, everything was fine.
It's awfully refreshing to see someone cite an *actual* Sun Tzu quote, and *especially* this one. I think of this specific line often. EDIT: It's also quite important in understanding Sun Tzu's entire military thinking.
😂 déjà vu on this topic! No wait, let me guess. Ukraine will win we just need to keep funding the war?! 😂 the clowns just keep on giving. So generous. But wait again! We are “loaning” this money and expect to be paid back after the war. Genius plan. Ukr will be screwed twice, once by Russia and second time by us! So kind 😅
THE very best RUclips channel to know exactly what is happening in Ukraine on the entire fronts on a daily basis is " Reporting From Ukraine " A MUST SEE !!!!
Though it was predicted that Russia would last until early 2026, we also need to factor in the recent Russian firework displays that are being held at the different military storage facilities.
Sure, this is the exact same kind of analysis clown that believed that the sanctions would cripple the Russian economy or that Russia was having to break into dishwashers to get microchips. Russia has plenty of money, raw materials and trading partners to be able to sustain this war until they have won the war, which will likely happen before the end of this year.
There were no real fireworks yet. I'm talking about cities in Europe and America. But you are pissed off to really fight with Russia. Ukraine will fail only because it’s mathematics. Russia has more resources than any other. And there are not so many Ukrainian military personnel left.
Those losses were primarily munitions. Russia has largely used their stockpiled munitions and is operating from current production. So those losses are likely to have a immediate impact on pace of operations, but not on the longer term forecast. Equipment is where the big shortages will be. Tank refurbishment likely hit an inflection point in June or July 2024, where expanding capacity crossed the decreasing availability of readily rebuildable hulls. All-new T-80 production resumed quite some time ago. New T-72/90 hull production might do so as well. Other classes of equipment, especially aircraft, simply require expanding new production at a level the the existing factories can't support.
What many seem to forget is that russia wont quit when 2026 rolls around and the savings run out - pootin will just have to ask China for loans - say for some 99 year leases in Siberia
I think Western countries have a moral obligation to help Ukraine defend itself. This is a very clear-cut case of one country invading another country. This is even reinforced by having to send a message to other potential aggressors around the world - that not respecting countries' borders has a very very high price. This is even more reinforced by the fact that this invasion - and the war since 2014 - could be seen as Putin "punishing" Ukraine for choosing a freedom-outlook. It's imperialism. We must support freedom-loving people. The Ukrainians are fighting their war of emancipation from Russian imperialism. - All those reasons apart - there are also more "selfish" and pragmatic reasons to support Ukraine so they win - or at least don't lose - the war (Remember that in a real sense, in war, noone wins): Russia has been and continues to lose much of it's military and industrial power, significantly lowering the potential for future wars. Every Euro and Dollar spend on Ukraine will have to be spent less on defense in the long term (potential peace dividend). We must therefore see that Ukraine is fighting "the good fight". Rarely has there been a more clear-cut case between "good" and "evil". The West is benefiting from them fighting on. We have to support them much more - to save Ukrainian lives and to send a message to fascists like Putin all across the world.
Thanks for an excellent video on this topic. It’s aggravating here in the US, having to listen to “economic” arguments against funding Ukraine, which, as noted here, are really political arguments. In the US’s case, they are made mostly by the political right and have little relation to the actual issue. Worst of all, they signal to Russia that Ukraine could very well suffer more militarily, as they already have, thanks to our internal party strife and a Republican Party increasingly enamored with Putin. It’s appalling.
If there's a positive thing about what you described, it may be that this signaling to putin that they should keep going further seals their fate. If they were smart they would be able to look at things the way they are and respond accordingly.
Oh come oh this exact point is beeing said and reurgitated for years now. But where is the projection for upcoming disasters? He doesnt want to bet money on it because He knows it Could Take another 10 years before they collapse, if at all.
Agreed. Although I’d add that many key figures on the US right are far more than ‘enamored’ with Putin, they’re let’s say highly incentivized ($$) by him.
This was very well explained. Im from Germany and I wish content like this would be shown here repeatedly since many people here think that Russia is guaranteed to win and is undefeatable with virtually infinite ressources. We need to educate and inform the western populations about these topics and be realistic and pragmatic. Ukraine can win but it will take at the very least 1,5 or 2 years more of strong support. We can afford this. The alternative, a russian victory, would cost us all much more
The German economy has crippled itself. It sat quiet while the US destroyed its energy supply and now has to buy from the US at twice the price. The EU is struggling while the Russian economy is more buoyant today than two years ago. BRICS is expanding as more and more countries around the world de-dollarise and distance themselves from the lunatic warmongers in the Pentagon and Brussels. Russia is building alliances and trading partnerships all over the globe. It is Ukraine and the West that need to be pragmatic. The Ukraine war is lost. Get over it and negotiate some kind of peace while there still is a Ukraine.
Russia has always had functionally endless material resources. Their manpower was a behemoth, maybe less so now. But modern warfare seems to have curtailed these advantages. Capital has always been heavily influential for militarily success, but even more so now, it seems. "The West" cannot afford to let Ukraine fail, imo.
This is a remarkable and invaluable overview of the fundamentals of the war. The situation is explained in a calm, rational, and lucid manner by a professional military analyst. Upvoted and subscribed - thank you Anders Puck Nielsen !
I am Russian, live Samara. Much of what these says is truth. Inflation is very bad in Russia, there is a thought that it will be like 1990s years once again
I saw it as European and flagged the video, there are 900 videos like this a day , implicating shit on Russia thats simply false, pure speculation or American cope. RUclips however supports warmongering uploaders like this that rather see the war continue and the death of both Ukrainians and Russians. This war = Views for this guy, he is directly profiting of the death of ukrainians and russians. The same way America profits of the weaponry it sells.
the West MUST not stop supporting Ukraine, Putins war machine is going to collapse very soon, !! He is DESPARATE !!!!!!! I am praying that the FOOLS in Europe understand that, !!!
Thankyou Anders.! Can I add, from a modeling perspective, that models like the logistics curve predict a surge in recruitment incentives or payments just before the available manpower starts to run out. That model predicts that after the spike you can offer whatever you would like and there simply aren't people who want it. This suggests that the pool of voluntary recruits may be much smaller than it appears at first glance. Its a simple toy model to be clear and doesn't prove anything to be clear but there is cause for worry here if your modelling the Russian side. It shouldn't be controversial to speculate that by 2026 there will be serious issues. Quite the opposite as far as I can tell. It would be borderline insane to suggest we can be confident the Russian side will be stable through 2026.
This assumption is running under the belief that Russia is taking heavy losses on the battlefield, which they are not. Clearly they are taking losses, but their numbers of losses are nowhere near what the western media is trying to tell us they are. Russia would have to have losses in the millions to trigger this, their losses are nowhere near this. Nearly everything this guy has said is pure fiction. Russia is not running this war off of their savings, the US is not the only country that can run deficits and keep their economy going. The Russians did not find expensive ways to bypass the sanctions, they are just trading with the rest of the world.
@@charlygriffin2828 So comparing to 80 years ago with completely different economic situations is a good answer? in fact it shows how ridiculous the situation is in the first place if you have to dig up stuff so far back
In the US, there were a few years during the eighties when savings bonds hit 13% and housing mortgages were over 20% Edit: apparently, I was thinking of five-year mortgages. It was a while ago.
Russia is HUGE, and HAD a lot of resources. HAD, the past of HAVE. Not sure WHEN Russia runs so low on resources that they have to pull back and go into "not peace but not attacking anymore" mode. But it will happen at a point.
Lots of the USSR’s resources were in Ukraine and the “Stan” countries in Central Asia. Ruzzia does still have a lot of resources, but not the economy and industry to take full advantage of them. They are spending all their money and manpower on the war and military production. They were also dependent on equipment and maintenance techs from Western countries for their oil/gas wells and many other industries, and eventually things are going to break that they can’t fix.
Russia has a massive trade surplus and you''re talking about them running out of resources hahaha. NATO cannot come close to Russia's arms output and you're actually talking about resources like it's a win? You will never beat Russia in a battle of resources especially when Europe is an unproductive husk that was already dependent on Russian resources.
@@intenzityd3181 You mean "HAD" a massive trade surplus. It's all gone. Ruzzia three years ago was propped up by exports military equipment and of crude and refined petroleum products. Ruzzia now is only covering the cost of production with its sales of crude. It has to import gasoline and kerosene as well as drones, missiles and ammunition. And no one wants to buy the ruzzian military gear that has proven itself to be nearly worthless in actual practice.
They lost approximately 6 months of ammo this week. so direct effect on frontline, how and where to store it, logistical nightmare, the huge cost (2x because they need to remake, rebuy), production time etc. oh and more of these ammodumps Are in range....
It's a snow ball. They lost more as their restock capability is 4 million short of workers. Their ability to transport resources around russia to produce military stuff is also deminished, due to lack of personnel and parts cost/ access. Finally, financing of all this endevour is shrinking.
@@feuervogel1880 i understood that the 1st ammodump was 3 months worth. and they hit 2 more, and a number of smaller ones. in truth its all a guesstimate of course, but let's settle on Lots ;-)
@@puraLusa yupp. also, rail system is collapsing and what no one seems to talk about is the ballbearing issue. russia can't produce them well. bad quality. so they were always importing them. And Everything needs them. factories, truck, trains, planes etc.
I have stopped being surprised by how out of touch people that have been following this war for a long time can be, The average journalist or average person has no clue what is going on. That Russia is spending far more money than it can afford long term has been clear since very early in the war, yet people keep talking about Russia being able to afford it indefinitely. Keeps being painful to hear for sure, but it is not surprising anymore.
Who does that? If anything mainstream media has been claiming russian shortages since almost the beginning of the war. Already in 2022, western media claimed that russia was running out of missiles, and that soldiers were sent to the front only with shovels .. If that was the state of the russian army in 2022, how come they're even capable of fighting today? Shouldn't every russian soldier by now be equipped with nothing but a shovel?
It's a perception that Russia itself has long been pushing to deter its enemies and keep its vassals in line. Given they've been pushing it since the Soviet era, I'm not surprised that many people - even Russia - have deluded themselves by the notion.
But russia's debt to GDP ratio is only 15% so if the war dragged on for 15+ more years I could see it being a problem but until they get to about 30% debt (the average in Eastern Europe) I doubt they will have economic "collapse"
I just saw a Forbes article which reported that Russia took all the 1,000 sailors on its ONLY Aircraft Carrier (The Admiral Kuneztov) and transferred them to the ARMY and sent them to Ukraine. THAT is how desperate Russia is for Troops! Slava Ukrainia!
Poland allowed millions of Ukraine people to migrate there when it did not have employment for them. It would make sense for them to excessively ramp up war materials needed by Ukraine, Europe; and themselves. Other countries can purchase it for the Ukraine war. All wars bleed their economic power and their allies. South Korea defence by USA cost millions every year. Who ever mentions stopping it to save money. How would the USA be condemned if it was ended? The bleeding only stops when the funding stops. It's not just Korea but many countries. When will they defend themselves with their own money? Our own economic collapse can be attributed partly to this military spending that others will never take credit for causing by not taking their own defence seriously to pay for it themselves. I agree we should give immediate assistance to our friends overseas that are attacked, but not make it open-ended.
Completely agree and just want to add that the Kuznetsov is little more than a floating metal tinderbox. It spends more time on fire than it does at sea. Russia's only carrier is as much a joke as the rest of the Russian military is.
Byly to hlavně ženy a děti z Ukrajiny! Česká Republika a Polsko jim pomohlo! To jsme je neměli vpustit? Vždyť všichni věřili že to Ukrajina neustojí! Moc věříte Ruským lžím! Bez pomoci USA demokratickým režimům a spojencům by USA za čas bojovalo s diktátory na vlastních hranicích. Mimochodem USA nikdy moc neprodělalo až do Afganistánu!
who provoked the war in Ukraine? -the USA has violated its oath not to expand NATO. Subsequently Bill Clinton refused Russia's request for NATO membership - in 2007 Georgian President Saakasvili close to the CIA had shot the peacekeepers of South Ossetia; - by Victoria Nuland's admission it was the USA which financed the Maidan revolution which ended in a constitutional coup and a bloodbath under false flag with neo-Nazi snipers... - the USA asked Ukraine not to apply the Minsk 2 agreements and over-armed -Ukraine,that had amassed troops at the beginning of 2022 to carry out ethnic cleansing in the Dombas
Factors driving Russia’s inflation: 4) sanctions regime reduces supply, being massively outstripped by demand. 5) price hikes for logistics 6) massive increases in taxes (companies need the increase prices to keep profitable) 7) exchange rate collapse of the Ruble, further escalating price hikes for industry and consumer business.
....and when you were in Russia last time!!?? When you watcing this channel, it means you watching someone who predicted for two and a half year.....and failed. Look to this channel 2 years ago......what did he predict, and what happened in reality? If your conclusions are correct, then explain to me.....the russian economy was the strongest european economy growing in 2022 and 2023. This is about GDP, it is about math!! And this was made by the IMF, and not by some russian propagandists. I often go to Russia and i see myself how things develop. Continue watching this channel, and Anders the "molbo" will create one more idiot.
@@angeurbain6129 "In your dreams" the simple principles of economics don't apply. But then you get to wake if you've not been sent over the top in a meat wave attack.
@@bakedbean37 This is not just what is happening in Russia. Wars have a cost, but up to know Russia can manage this cost quite well and can do so easily for the near future. Russian export are still strong and the money Russia is making out ot these exportation basically cover the cost of the war in Ukraine. Now you also have to look at the other side of the equation: the cost of this war and the santions against Ruia for the western economy. And don't forget that the ukraine is living on the western welfare.
5 months ago: Ukraine's strategic bombing campaign: will the Russian economy collapse? Today: Russia's war economy is unstable Tomorrow: why are the sanctions not working?
@@lancerevo9747 Absolutely. I'm stunned by the level of propaganda western medias, who supposed to be free and objective, pour every day just for clicks (hopefully not for interests of their governments). I actually inform myself from "eastern" channels, they're much more objective. Sad, but true
Western leaders have said Ukraine should decide the terms of any peace agreement. This should hold. Isolationist approach and sanctions should remain post hostilities indefinitely as long as any part of Ukraine is still under occupation.
Sanctions could be used after the war to slow Russia's rebuilding her war machine to allow the West to strengthen theirs. Nuclear weapons are expensive to maintain so a reduction in their nucs with a reduction in the west's nucs for a gradual lifting of sanctions could be negotiated. Also a gradual lifting of sanctions after Russia leaves Ukraine in response to Russia footing the bill to rebuild Ukraine
Thank you again for your timely and informed synopsis. I would like to pose a question if I may to anyone. I feel like I have been hearing that "XYZ" with Russia is "Unsustainable" for almost three years now. When does the unsustainability affect Russia to where we see a collapse? An end to the aggression? Thank you all for any answers to my query
You only have to look at the inflation rate, very high interest rates, and ongoing shrinkage of the Russian government's financial reserves to see that its war economy is unsustainable.
You left out a very important driver up inflation, which is exchange rates, particularly with the Chinese yuan. Russia is running out of foreign currencies and can only pay China in yuan and not ruples. This drives up the exchange rate with the yuan, which in turn supercharges inflation
Rubbish your Biased BS is showing as the Russian's have been developing their war economy along with BRICS and the cash flow does go both ways, in reality more ways than it ever did as China and India plus some African and south American nations are moving and transferring Russian goods Energy and cash. They win and we lose, hell the Western economies as you have to be blind not to see how we in our arrogance shot ourselves in our political foot and we will pay the ferryman?? Realities bite will sting. Cheers
Simplistic thinking. Russia owns the most and often most abundant natural resources in the world, from fresh water to uranium or gold, and can use these to pay for anything it needs for as long as it wants.
@@breakbollocks9164 not true. China is its biggest trading partner and only pays in Yuan. China also requires that everything Russia buys from it is in Yuan. They are intentionally trying to disintermediate the Russian ruble to exert influence over Russia.
All of this does not need 20 years of experience in military matters. It commen economics. A main issue in the west is what uneducated children we allow to be journalists.
@@James-sh4zf 'It is common' to be even more pernickety. The second sentence isn't constructed in an especially educated way either. Still if the writer's 'name' is Ork then maybe there's a clue there 🤔😆
@@James-sh4zf If you substitute "commen" for "common," he's right. And Anders was surprised that the journalists hadn't figured out this by themselves.
This is not because journalists are uneducated, it is because journalists are overworked. They have to produce as many news as fast as possible (to compete with social media) leaving them with minimum time to research. A journalist working on daily news normally gets a topic in the morning (a topic that they could have some expertise or none at all) and they have a number of hours (less than working day) to research, contact, produce and edit it. And they cannot give more time to produce better news because they need to have the news fast (if you are not the first publishing nobody will read them), and media makes not enough money to, lets say, double the number of hired journalists (because less people consume traditional media). Imagine that tomorrow you need to produce some news on the last developments of the war in Ukraine, the day after on the US elections, the day after on the public opinion in your country/state about the economical situation in your country/state, the next day on the last UN report on climate change... This is what journalist have to do nowadays. The consequences are obvious. It is a super complicated problem and nobody knows the way out, at least yet.
Spot on video. I would only go a little bit more in detail in regards to money reserves. In the first year of war Russia did not need to use them since they enjoyed high oil & gas priced plus the cost of war was limited - as they were using soldiers already in the normal payroll. Second year according to the Russia Central bank reserves went down some USD 58-59B since costs were going up and oil and gas prices went back to normal and gas volumes (to Europe) collapsed. After that I find no more credible info but we know: 1) Gazprom went severely in the red. From making Billions of profit to tens of Billions of losses 2) Direct costs of war climbing 3) Ukraine hitting refineries resulted in bans on export of refined products. So it is not hard to imagine that Russua will be burning some USD 100B/yesr of reserves. They started war at around USD 600B but half was immediately frozen in Europe/US. So mid/end 2025 - max 2026 - adds up as point where the reserves piggy bank runs out - depending on oil prices. With the oil prices currently also dipping and Ukraine doing some major blowing up in Russia I bet on second half 2025. No wonder that the minister of Defense in Russia is now a bean counter with no military experience.
A little something about economic capacity. Russia has a share of 2-3% of global GDP. Ukraine is supported by countries that are responsible for around 50% of global GDP. With inflation in Russia, the 8-9% figure is very implausible. In Russian Telegram channels, there are repeated reports of price increases of 25-30% in the fall for various products and services, such as food, air travel, telephone tariffs, etc. Without naming the basket of goods used for inflation and the prices charged, they can write anything Putin wants.
who cares? are you living in russia? i couldn't care less whether they have 0% inflation or 200000% inflation. the thing that i care about is the fact that gas prices and taxes are through the roof and groceries and everything else has doubled or tripled over the last three years ever since our incompetent and short-sighted leaders started virtue signaling with this whole project ukraine thing and started pushing failed backfiring sanctions that have destroyed our economies and completely deindustrialized countries like germany for example. venezuela has had either 1.5 quadrillion or 15 quadrillion percent inflation since the 1980s with most of it happening within the last 15 years, and have they collapsed? have our sanctions changed anything, or have they just backfired and just increased gas prices ever since the oil industry in venezuela was destroyed? have the sanctions caused their little dictator to go like "awww, quadrillion percent inflation over the last 20 years since supreme comrade chavez.. gee, i guess i better resign now" or are they still in power? so please, stop with the nonsense about how russia this and that and inflation in russia and blah blah. nobody cares about inflation in russia. we're not russia. nobody cares if comrade ivanovitch from siberia is paying 30% more for their phone bill. russia is not gonna collapse because comrade ivanovitch is angry about his phone bill going up. the russian military is going to keep getting everything that it needs. russia has near infinite soviet stockpiles and infinite resources and energy that everyone wants to purchase and that are bringing in hundreds of billions of dollars per year allowing them to keep chugging along as if nothing happened and keep making their own stuff and purchasing everything else that they need and continue this conflict indefinitely. unlike zelensky that is begging and breaking the eardrums of our leaders for more cash. unlike ukraine that depends on charity from our taxpayers on the other side of the planet in order to keep going and that has received nearly half a trillion dollars so far in the last two and half years with absolutely no signs of progress in literally two years now. quite the opposite, they're getting worse and worse and are now right on the verge of collapse. so yeah, spare us the stories about russian inflation. not only have we heard these tales a hundred times already, but it has absolutely zero impact on any of us.
@@issadraco532This comment is completely irrelevant to the wider conversation of sustainability for Russia’s war against Ukraine or its economy. If you want to rant about isolationist rhetoric the pen and paper for a manifesto are right next to you.
@@issadraco532 Your comment is a fever dream of nonsensical arguments for disconnected discussions. You might wanna take a deep breath and re evaluate the way you express yourself if you want any chance to be taken at least slightly seriously by anyone. Good luck
@@issadraco532 Where did you get the BS that petrol prices have doubled or tripled? And the story that Germany has been deindustrialised is also just a fantasy story. This BS is only spread by the radical right or conspiracy theorists. You also don't seem to realise that if you let Putin conquer Ukraine, it will soon be the next country's turn. But it's probably pointless discussing this with you because either you're trapped in your information bubble, or you're spreading propaganda against payment, or you're intellectually incapable of understanding the current Russia/Ukraine situation.
I have been waiting 2 1/2 years for some good news as to how long this war may last. I have subscribed and am looking forward to more of your presentations.
Making predictions is hard, especially about the future. It sure isn't a grateful job 😊 With the Russian penchant for hardship and lack of public opinion, it's near impossible to predict what will happen in that country. Only thing we can do is push as hard as possible by keep sending material to the Ukranians as well as relief to the population.
Yeah, until a USSR type break up of russia. This time the geopolitical “tragedy” will be totally Putin’s fault. He won’t be able to rewrite the history books into some Pollyanna shiny reimagining of this event, the incompetent russian leader of small stature. He so wanted to go down in history as the next Peter the Great and it just isn’t happening with almost a million russian men dead and the russian birth rate dropping precipitously. Russia’s future is dimming.
I highly doubt that. The IMF still expects Russia to have real GDP growth of 3.6% this year. Higher than Western Europe. October 2024. World Economic Outlook. IMF Russia is under sanctions and they produce their own weapons and food. The conversion rate from USD to RUB isn't as important to Russia now as it would have been before the sanctions.
@@Princip666 No. Putin is doing that. Obvious truth. Ukraine is fighting for its sovereign independence. Take a look at their neighbouring Poland and get the message. Poland also faces potential damage from Russia just as it did from Hitler and Stalin. Poland is in NATO and an ally of Ukraine and preparing.
@@Princip666 You seem to have drunk too much vodka, because otherwise you would have noticed that the parallels between Hitler's Germany and Putin's Russia are astounding. And if you want to make comparisons, then you had to compare Ukraine with Poland, but with one small difference. In WW2 Poland was invaded by Russia and Nazi Germany, and Ukraine now only by Russia.
Indeed Germany lost the war mainly from a logistical sustainability issue than military. It just couldn't sustain the level of production, especially against the ever increasing production levels of the Allies. Both Japan's and Germany's strategy was to strike quickly, giving a knockout blow and grabbing desperately needed resources. Both failed to complete the job.
Anders, excellent discussion on two types of war economies: Russia vs Ukraine. Russia is caught in a closed system, most of the war production is heavy industry with foreign components to make the equipment functional. Yes, a tank chassis costs more or less the same as in 2019, but those expensive foreign components - high tech electronics - cost much more and must be purchased in western currencies and around sanctions. Ukraine's tanks and equipment are essentially gifts, produced and paid by western countries and shipped, with training, to forward staging locations. Unlike Russia's large state enterprises located near major cities, Ukraine's growing 'cottage arms industries' produce rockets and drones at discrete locations, beyond the reach of Russian weapons. This scenario, removes the need for thousands of heavy industry workers competing with military recruitment. Lastly, there is the contribution from expatriates working outside the war zone. 2-3 million Ukrainians left the country in the first years of the war. They moved west into Poland, Romania, and beyond where they settled down, got jobs, and are sending remittances to relatives in Ukraine much like Cuban American exiles send dollars to relatives in Cuba. Conversely 1 to 1.5 million better educated and motivated Russians escaped to the west for a new and permanent life. Many are considered traitors by their families and the government, making them less likely to send money, through difficult currency controls, back to Russia. For Russia, it is a slippery slope to economic collapse, affecting city dwellers more than rural peasants. If the war ended today, it would take years to cancel sanctions and restore business with Russia. From an infrastructure standpoint, factories, refineries, and transportation modes may take decades to train new workers and restore facilities.
What a unique piece of nonsense, created after an overdose of "independent media". Even my grandmother, a person as far removed from politics as possible, could have given a more competent analysis.
I love the sanction discussion. When people claim: "Look, the sanctions don't work. Because Russia was able to buy a 20 year old lebanese Airplane in Sudan, which they imported to Russia for spare parts." So, when did these people get the idea, that buying a 20 year old car, in another country, is a "good way" when your car needs a spare part?
Actually I don’t think that the price of “tanks” remain the same. Labor costs in the war industries are increasing just as fast as those in other industries. In addition sanctions have also increased the costs of purchasing the things necessary to build “tanks” - as you indicate in your brief.
Yep. Perun went into Russia’s inflation and said exactly this. Demand for skilled workers to repair their 1950’s tanks is extremely high. I think the bots will tell us how well these skills translate to other sectors in a post-wartime economy. :P
@@rcchin7897 A couple of millions of their best men LEFT. A lot of skilled metalworkers as well. TMahere is never more than a couple of percent of the TOP skilled men... Machinist, CNC programmer, welder must be on the job for years before you can expect top results. I do not doubt that a lot of them were sent to the front to be killed.
Great analysis and excellent summary. I recall that Russia's birth rate was already in a downward spiral before the war. I imagine the current numbers of dead and self-exiled young men will only make depopulation worse.
Very good analysis Andreas. I am sure Russian economic analyst might be thinking about it as well. Though, supporting Ukraine at the same level is far fetched as NATO inventories are running out. Like finding batteries of US Air defence is impossible to find in EU. So not sure how long EU can just keep supplying weapons, if it doesn't have its own.
People forget just how small Russias GDP is. It's something like 4% of NATOs. The west is literally throwing it's spare pocket change at the war while Russia is spending a third of government spending on it. Just think about it, Russia is converting itself into a war economy while the west gives its spare equipment and spare change and Russia still can't keep up with western supply.
You will hear until the last day of the war that Russia has ample resources to sustain its efforts-until, suddenly, that is no longer the case. People often project past performance into the future, making them vulnerable to Ponzi schemes and investment bubbles. We see a similar situation here.
I know you definitely didn't intend this, but this is great timing! It's a great addition to the latest Perun video on the Ukrainian economy. Almost seems like you colluded haha.
I think the last part of your video is somewhat inaccurate. Yes, we don't run a wartime economy, but we also produce less new weapons than we send to Ukraine. Germany still hasn't had her tanks replaced that she sent to Ukraine. The IRIS T anti-air systsems have been sent to Ukraine because Egypt said they'd be happy to wait. Artillery shell production is still awfully lackluster. And we're also running out of Soviet equipment we can send to Ukraine. I'd be happy to stand corrected.
@@evgeniya7853 They dont even know what actual conflict is... they complain about refugees after they send their sons and daughters to "guard" oil and wheat fields in Syria.
I've seen a lot of MSM interviews of experts on the conflict, the majority say Russia can't sustain this conflict and the interviewer simply ignores them, then continues with scripted questions. I can't remember seeing an intelligent interview on MSM about this subject, even long format current affairs programs don't go into half the details found on YT. YT channels such as this one are far, far more informative.
All sound points, but it's frustrating to listen to them as a Ukrainian. Ukraine doesn't get enough help to outlast Russia even now, and who knows what happens after elections in the US and other countries. On top of that, our demographic situation is horrible and keeps getting worse. The economy is non-existent. The energy grid is destroyed. With the approach the West has right now, there is simply no bright future for Ukraine. Either we lose, or we somehow survive but remain without people, economy, infrastructure, and probably a significant portion of land.
You are absolutely right, coming from Denmark, a country that "donate" a lot IN COMPARISON, the truth is, its not something we really feel as an economic burden in our daily life. So we can afford more, and so can the rest of Europe. Ps! Dont like the word "donation", but could not come up with a better word. But the truth is, that its the Ukraine that do the hard part.
Ukraine will recieve a lot of foreign investment once this war is over i feel. And there is constantly being worked to make ukraine suitable for eu inclusion. The press is often somber, but there are loads of positive signs all over that ukraine will have a positive future. Diplomacy is just often very unclear and rarely works as the general public expects because there is a lot of stuff going on behind the scenes. In my view the only thing that would devistating is a trump presidency.
@@E_Dtl Tal for dig selv! Der er faktisk en del Danskere der har svært ved at få tingene til at hænge sammen fordi regeringen forærer en masse penge væk til en tabt sag!
You've been listening to too much news, they're dooming since forever... Energy grid is so destroyed we don't have blackouts now? Sure, winter will probably be worse but not as bad as 2022... What bullcrap about demographic situation? Like please, tell me how a civilian in Ukraine in good conscience can have a kitchen talk "hey Lyoha, I keep noticing demographic situation is getting worse", what does that even mean? How does stuff like birthrate affect you or me anyway? Again, I'm a pessimist and I assumed we won't have a day without blackouts and russian troops near Odesa and having them STILL around Donetsk after 11 years failing to even get back to Sloviansk (which they held in 2014) is unbelievable. Nothing of that excuses West being useless at best. It's just no amount of Western, Iranian or North Korean aid can save RF from having everything you listed far worse. There was no way russia is going to win after we sank moskva. None. West and FSB are gaslighting us to think they somehow can pull through. They can't. Stop reading Telegram or wherever you get complaining about demographics, because people don't use that word in real life. Not in Ukraine at least.
Unfortunately Ukraine's position economically and demographically is awful, time for a new leader who understands that and hopefully can negotiate a compromise which gives the country a future
thanks for pointing out Russia is not this endless horde of machines and men that can continue forever
Ukraine has even less
@@charlygriffin2828 The Ukrainian defence group of nations has way more productive capacity, and it is sustainable, than Russia. RUclipsr Mark Biernat (monetary economist) calculates the Russian economy will hit a wall in 2025. A rouble will become worthless, even to Russians.
But Ukraine is rich and bigger than Russia it has population larger than russia.usa will fight for Ukraine. Russia Is begging for weapons and saying give me money. Russia economy is subsided by foreign power. Ukraine demography is in boom and Russia have run away to take refugees in West and they are not planning to return back 😂😂😂
@@prashantshiwakoti5690 Yes, it's surprising very few people mention that Ukraine is larger than Russia and has a much larger population, so Russia will run out of men way sooner than Ukraine
@@NJ-wb1czin Short it’s not about the population but the actual mobilization
Russia has a bigger potential because of its population
Ukraine can mobilize more of its population because the willingness for war of its population is bigger
The word is war support
So Putin has to be more careful when forcibly conscripting soldiers which he did one time in the poorer areas of Russia because of backlash
This means russia pays its soldiers a small fortune to fight
Mobilization will be on the table again but as last time with significant political drawbacks which seem so severe that Putin is so scared of them to do literally anything else in terms of recruiting before resorting to this
Ukraine has the smaller population smaller economy and less land
But it can use its resources more efficiently then Russia which you can see in the kill ratios of both sides, the drone war etc.
Russia just can’t use its manpower pool most of the time
Rule 1 of war: Don't pick a fight with countries who are richer than you.
Rule 2 if war: Don't pick a fight with countries whose friends are richer than you.
What if the friends don't care enough to actually help you win? And are fine with watching you keeping Russia tied in an endless war?
Friends who show for three year they don't interesting in victory of yours or even civilized peaceful coexistence on European continent. It's insanity, just use million people as living shield, when at that time buying russian gas&oil and support restoration kremlins potential for continue russian war in Ukraine. It's seems not friendship when not motivated stop kremlin war for save Ukrainian population or giving full aid for it.Endless genocide by endless war it's not friendships. When helping dictatorship regimes from both sides forbiden human rights and conventions and freedom choice. After all so rich friends which friends if for continue war against freedom and democracy and lives of ordinary population, especially victims of war in Ukraine which forbbiden human rights and conventions and freedom choice save lives from danger situation with kremlin drones, missles or nuclear strikes...War for extermination of ordinary population which less then more after all. Genocidian Endless kremlins strike to ukrainian people from technologies and money of friends to kremlin. Why not stop genocide relatively as in Kosovo or Ukrainian population not deserved it? Humanes relationship as in Kosovo?
@@TheErazar No war is endless. Europe already drifts into a recession. And elections are won by the nationalist parties. The end is very near.
@@TheErazar Then they aren't friends. So it's important to remember those few good friends.
@@TheErazar thanks Ivan for trying to sow division.
Military salary doubles => Survivability on the front halves
Everything balances
👌👌👌
I know that's a joke but I can absolutely see some one in the kremlin making that calll
@@sanguiniuethe thing is, they already have. Vlad Vexler actually pointed this out in a couple of his videos, where he talks about the neoliberal ruzzian thought process of weighing the potential risks and benefits when singing up to the meatgrinder, and the Kremlin doubling the paycheck as a means of increasing the number of contractors.
Exactly my thought.
Sanctions have failed. Cope some more.
They don’t get paid because they are just declared missing, that’s the loophole
Living here in Kharkiv, I always find your commentary informative and I appreciate the depth of your analysis, Anders. Many thanks for your continued reports.
Lol odd choice of playlists you have there "Native American pow wow songs"
All titled in English , Remind me Ukraine is an English speaking country right?
How is the Ukrainian economy doing? How is the fighting spirit? Are you going to the front?
@@sodanakin >Remind me Ukraine is an English speaking country right?
You'll be surprised, but yes, we know a bit of English here
@@Yen0T Take look at the guys profile picture and tell me he is Ukrainian please 😂 Living in Kharkiv my-a$$
Most countries in europe speak multiple languages. @sodanakin
Yesterday l found out how high real inflation is in Russia. I was watching a Russian video on RUclips and an advert appeared from a bank offering 25% interest on savings. It also tells you there is a shortage of capital
In the first year after sanctions have been empowered. Inflation in Russia was as high as 60%… from that high level on its now rising about 20% y/y and higher. 😊
Yeah, it has been extremely bad and getting worse since 2022, sadly the western press is busy talking about how Russia can keep this up forever to actually fact check any politician's or Russian state media claim.
Oh wow the Nation we destroyed 50% of their GDP while they underwent shock therapy is somehow Low On Capital. It is almost like we destroyed their standard of living and now they are trying to regain power through the only way they can. WAR.
If it sounds too good to be true then it probably cannot be true. You can promise any interest if you are not really planning to pay all back.
@@anomymouse5043 Yep. You just described a ponzi scheme.
Very sensible analysis. Lots of bots trying to persuade western audiences to abandon Ukraine, Russia has too much resource etc. Even Their revised budget increasing 20+% again is all about convincing people they have no intention to stop until Ukraine falls. They can and will keep going (Putin has no other option) but they will inevitably collapse at some point. West strategy should be to protect Ukraine and save as many lives until that day. They could be doing much more in that respect
Good point
Please explain how Ukraine will win this conflict, specifically this war of attrition. Russia has a population of 160 million, while Ukraine currently has a population of 20 million. Who runs out of soldiers first? The West has already poured $300 billion into Ukraine and it has not stopped Russia. Europe and the USA's weapon stores are being depleted and they lack the industrial capacity to replenish them at the rate that Ukraine is consuming them. What more can the West do, other than use nuclear weapons? There is no appetite among fighting age men in the collective West to fight Russia. A recent survey showed that if conscripted, 70% would refuse to go.
Anyone who disagrees is a bot . . . very nice . . . you help me see the future much more clearly.
@@antebratincevic6764an observation and opinion, you are free to disagree or have a different one.
@@terencedonohoe9123 I just wanted to say that labeling those who have a different opinion with bots means that those who use those labels have poor or no argumentation.
I live in a country whose soldiers left their bones in Russia three times in the last 200 years fighting for others, and against the Russians, it is legitimate to question whether to do it for the fourth time, especially knowing the fact that the Russian army has never been in the country where I live.
Russia believed its own hype. Having a huge land mass with lots of natural resources and a bellicose/shouty leadership does not a superpower make. You can view Russia in a completely different light: a huge, sparsely populated country that doesn’t have the GDP to maintain and develop its own resources. It actually has the same amount of sealed motorway as Taiwan, despite russia being about 500x the size. That alone should raise eyebrows. It’s got the same GDP as Texas despite being 25x bigger and 5x the population. Every stat you look at puts Russia at a huge disadvantage, until you start counting nukes. But I think Russia knows that thats just not going to cut it anymore.
And how many of these nukes don’t work because of bad maintenance..?!😂
Wir sollten Russland nicht klein reden. Es ist eine Gefahr für die ganze Welt.
Yet most russians cannot stop drinking for One DAY. Huge disadvantage.
@@war-painter From 2010 to 2024, Russia dropped from 4th to 16th place in the world in terms of the number of drinkers.
Ha ha ha what a load of rubbish .. a carefully pieced together load of horsesh***t ,,,... Since when did a tank need need sealed motorway using GDP as a barometer for a countries wealth is flawed a load of Wall Street bankers or Texas oil billionaires can skew figures that mask the thousands of zombies living on the streets of Austin Dallas Fort Worth and Lubbock
Is Russia losing?
This is why its so important to commit to long term investments in the Ukrainian defence industry. Putin will only negotiate in good faith when he knows he cannot win!
Good faith? Too late. They should have adhered to the Budapest Memorandum, which Russia presumably signed in "good faith". Then they wouldn't have this problem.
Russia can NEVER be trusted. Ask anyone who has ever had anything to do with Russia. Why is this such a difficult lesson for the West to learn?
When they understand they lost that war, they'll get rid of Putin. Putin will not be given a chance to negotiate. It's too late for him. He should have negotiated in the summer of 2022. I'm guessing the FSB will dismiss Putin and they will negotiate. The sooner the better.
@@EUMikkel so, never....😂
If you believe that, you should invest everything you have in Ukraine. When Ukraine wins you'll be rich.
I mean, if anyone seriously believes that 1) Russia's economy is fine, let alone booming 2) Russia can sustain this forever and 3) Russia can never lose, they should not be journalists because they lack elemental critical thinking.
Russia and China has much bigger raw materials and energy reserves.
US will run out from oil and his infrastructure will get unsustainable soon
At the same time, if you think the winner will be a country who's population has dwindled to 25 million because almost half it's people would rather flee than fight for it, and which is dependent on foreign sponsors for whom this is absolutely not an existential issue and who have a far greater opponent and a far more important conflict (CHINA, TAIWAN) you should probably learn how to think.
Ukrainian lines are already buckling because they have neither enough men nor enough equipment nor enough ammo. The signs are obvious it takes someone who is unwilling to see them to not see them.
They were hungarians for sure
@@LumineScientiaeFideigo home, troll, crawl back under your rock
@@LumineScientiaeFidei "Ukrainian lines are buckling" says the country that still hasn't taken Chasiv Yar after 1.5 years and has advanced roughly 30km in nearly 3 years. What is that? 27 meters per day? At that rate you'll reach Kyiv (~700km from Avdiivka) in... 71 years?
NATO countries are already signing long term support agreements. Norway just signed a $5-6b agreement that funds Ukraine until 2030. We're ready for a long term war. Combined GDP of EU+US is $51 trillion vs Russia's $2 trillion. That's 25 times the size. Who do you think is more prepared economically for a war of attrition?
Meanwhile Putin's NWF will run dry in Q1/Q2 2025 which means no slush fund to plug budget deficits and nobody to borrow from. And his Soviet hand-me-downs will be exhausted by the end of next year. Hyperinflation and collapse is Russia's future under Putin.
Before this war started it was commonly stated that Russia's economy was the same size as Italy's. But not as diverse...why do we know often see Russia as some kind of superpower. It isn't.
In the best years, when oil prices are very high, yes maybe a top ten economy in the world. But on average they are more like the Netherlands ~15-18 in the world. The West is keeping Ukraine alive (unfortunately not more than that) basically without even noticing.
Rare elements. Tesla needs more nickel than china has and norilsk has plenty, probably nothing...
Russia is in the same league as Texas for GDP.
That’s because Russia can make more tanks out of an Italy sized budget than Italy.
Because labor (and life) in Russia is cheap.
And also: Nukes.
Russia isn’t a global power, it’s more of a global nuisance.
@@Grimshak81 This. It's how Russia chooses to invest and its impact on the world that makes it a 'superpower'. Take away their nukes, aggression and absurd military spending and they're nothing special. This is also why imo so many Russians resist change.... they don't want to be 'no better than Italy and leagues below Germany'. They want to continue believing they are something special, not the nuisance they really are.
Thanks again for an excellent assessment!
Russia is not a superpower. They have superpower nostalgia. Their entire economy is worth less than that of Italy. Or, about the same as Belgium + Netherlands. And yes, they will run out of equipment, its happening already as we can see with their use of motorcycles, Chinese 'golf carts' etc. I think it will happen sooner rather than later, as Russia would also need to preserve a minimum for protection against perceived incoming threats
@@ignatziusturret5641 Enough ignorance to sacrifice their entire future on a losing war🤣
@@ignatziusturret5641 tiny gains at enormous cost in lives and resources
They didn't say they were a superpower. All they said is they don't want Nato on their borders.
@@ignatziusturret5641 Recently, Russians have suffered significant losses on the battlefield. They nearly surrounded Kyiv, occupied Kherson, and advanced toward Kharkiv, but were eventually pushed back.
@@petermomanyi529 Well now russia has Finland in NATO so I guess it's still going according to the plan.
Thank you Anders!
The situation in Russia is like that guy who jumped from a skyscraper. When he reached the 50th floor, he was asked from a window how everything was going. He replied that so far, everything was fine.
lol, also very russian😂
"It's not the falling that hurts, it's the landing". Ouch.
Yeah, he met no bumps on the way ...
Jusqu'ici tout va bien . . . jusqu'ici tout va bien . . . jusqu'ici tout va bien . . .
He's now reached the 25th Floor and everything is still just fine but..... nothing lasts forever.
Thank you, algorithm.
“There is no instance of a nation benefitting from prolonged warfare.” ― Sun Tzu. Russia is learning this lesson the hard way.
It's awfully refreshing to see someone cite an *actual* Sun Tzu quote, and *especially* this one. I think of this specific line often.
EDIT: It's also quite important in understanding Sun Tzu's entire military thinking.
А усваивают ли это её противники?
a second time
😂 déjà vu on this topic! No wait, let me guess. Ukraine will win we just need to keep funding the war?! 😂 the clowns just keep on giving. So generous. But wait again! We are “loaning” this money and expect to be paid back after the war. Genius plan. Ukr will be screwed twice, once by Russia and second time by us! So kind 😅
@@simonpriest4345
You alternative solutions?
More people in the West need to listen to this!
Why
Because his analysis is on point of course 😉
@@kaeseblock1362 what analysis
Why listen to false propaganda? I'd rather listen to the IMF and World Bank.
@@zdravkoavdalovic3131troll!😂
Another superb video. Honestly, Anders, you are a terrific presenter. Thank you so much for the depth, and entertainment too, of your presentations.
THE very best RUclips channel to know exactly what is happening in Ukraine on the entire fronts on a daily basis is " Reporting From Ukraine " A MUST SEE !!!!
Highly refreshing to see insightful and balanced commentary without distracting animation and videos. Subscribed.
I highly recommend Perun's channel if you want more of that
Though it was predicted that Russia would last until early 2026, we also need to factor in the recent Russian firework displays that are being held at the different military storage facilities.
Sure, this is the exact same kind of analysis clown that believed that the sanctions would cripple the Russian economy or that Russia was having to break into dishwashers to get microchips.
Russia has plenty of money, raw materials and trading partners to be able to sustain this war until they have won the war, which will likely happen before the end of this year.
There were no real fireworks yet. I'm talking about cities in Europe and America. But you are pissed off to really fight with Russia. Ukraine will fail only because it’s mathematics. Russia has more resources than any other. And there are not so many Ukrainian military personnel left.
Those losses were primarily munitions. Russia has largely used their stockpiled munitions and is operating from current production. So those losses are likely to have a immediate impact on pace of operations, but not on the longer term forecast.
Equipment is where the big shortages will be. Tank refurbishment likely hit an inflection point in June or July 2024, where expanding capacity crossed the decreasing availability of readily rebuildable hulls. All-new T-80 production resumed quite some time ago. New T-72/90 hull production might do so as well. Other classes of equipment, especially aircraft, simply require expanding new production at a level the the existing factories can't support.
What many seem to forget is that russia wont quit when 2026 rolls around and the savings run out - pootin will just have to ask China for loans - say for some 99 year leases in Siberia
Good point although Russian bots seem to want to pretend it's not happening I am certain it might have an effect lol.
I think Western countries have a moral obligation to help Ukraine defend itself. This is a very clear-cut case of one country invading another country.
This is even reinforced by having to send a message to other potential aggressors around the world - that not respecting countries' borders has a very very high price.
This is even more reinforced by the fact that this invasion - and the war since 2014 - could be seen as Putin "punishing" Ukraine for choosing a freedom-outlook. It's imperialism. We must support freedom-loving people. The Ukrainians are fighting their war of emancipation from Russian imperialism.
- All those reasons apart - there are also more "selfish" and pragmatic reasons to support Ukraine so they win - or at least don't lose - the war (Remember that in a real sense, in war, noone wins):
Russia has been and continues to lose much of it's military and industrial power, significantly lowering the potential for future wars. Every Euro and Dollar spend on Ukraine will have to be spent less on defense in the long term (potential peace dividend).
We must therefore see that Ukraine is fighting "the good fight". Rarely has there been a more clear-cut case between "good" and "evil". The West is benefiting from them fighting on. We have to support them much more - to save Ukrainian lives and to send a message to fascists like Putin all across the world.
Absolutely. 😊
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦💪🔥
Emphatically agree. If we're going to say rule of law matters over might-makes-right, this is a no-brainer. Ukraine must win.
And yet we dither.😢
Not only moral. UK and USA even signed treaties to defend Ukraine.
If they sticks to their promises is on the line.
@@Grimshak81 Which treaties do you mean?
Thanks for an excellent video on this topic. It’s aggravating here in the US, having to listen to “economic” arguments against funding Ukraine, which, as noted here, are really political arguments. In the US’s case, they are made mostly by the political right and have little relation to the actual issue. Worst of all, they signal to Russia that Ukraine could very well suffer more militarily, as they already have, thanks to our internal party strife and a Republican Party increasingly enamored with Putin. It’s appalling.
If there's a positive thing about what you described, it may be that this signaling to putin that they should keep going further seals their fate. If they were smart they would be able to look at things the way they are and respond accordingly.
I would say they will run out of fuel and ammunition before they run out of Tanks
Oh come oh this exact point is beeing said and reurgitated for years now. But where is the projection for upcoming disasters? He doesnt want to bet money on it because He knows it Could Take another 10 years before they collapse, if at all.
Agreed. Although I’d add that many key figures on the US right are far more than ‘enamored’ with Putin, they’re let’s say highly incentivized ($$) by him.
Replying as a second upvote; not much to add. It's infuriating to watch.
Thanks!
This was very well explained. Im from Germany and I wish content like this would be shown here repeatedly since many people here think that Russia is guaranteed to win and is undefeatable with virtually infinite ressources. We need to educate and inform the western populations about these topics and be realistic and pragmatic. Ukraine can win but it will take at the very least 1,5 or 2 years more of strong support. We can afford this. The alternative, a russian victory, would cost us all much more
U.S. progaganda
The German economy has crippled itself. It sat quiet while the US destroyed its energy supply and now has to buy from the US at twice the price. The EU is struggling while the Russian economy is more buoyant today than two years ago. BRICS is expanding as more and more countries around the world de-dollarise and distance themselves from the lunatic warmongers in the Pentagon and Brussels.
Russia is building alliances and trading partnerships all over the globe.
It is Ukraine and the West that need to be pragmatic. The Ukraine war is lost. Get over it and negotiate some kind of peace while there still is a Ukraine.
@@sandiharris5906
🎤💩
Slava Ukraïni! ❤️🇺🇦🔱✌️
Nope
Russia has always had functionally endless material resources.
Their manpower was a behemoth, maybe less so now.
But modern warfare seems to have curtailed these advantages.
Capital has always been heavily influential for militarily success, but even more so now, it seems.
"The West" cannot afford to let Ukraine fail, imo.
Russia is in a war of attrition against 30 countries some 20x larger than it. That was never a smart strategy.
That's why when people say that Russia attacked Ukraine to supposedly stop NATO expansion, I laugh, a lot.
And those 30countreis are richest one and can't defeat 1 with small economy 😂😂😂
@@Percival5 Those 30 countries don't even have dirt under their nails yet.
But 1 of those countries has an orange monster in it. Be very afraid.
@@Percival5 Putin Clown: Oh you bet we can, wait and see, how miserable your pathetic life will be...
This is a remarkable and invaluable overview of the fundamentals of the war.
The situation is explained in a calm, rational, and lucid manner by a professional military analyst.
Upvoted and subscribed - thank you Anders Puck Nielsen !
I am Russian, live Samara. Much of what these says is truth. Inflation is very bad in Russia, there is a thought that it will be like 1990s years once again
This is load of BS 😂
You talk like a redditor
@@koja69 You just proved the adage: It takes all types to make a world.
@@jeremywestgarth-taylor8443 it doesn't, it just is.
And some of them produce and believe in a load of BS.
Thanks
Brilliant analysis... People need to see this
yes, more hopium and wishful thinking while ukraine is two months away from collapsing.
Keep on coping! It’s hilarious! 🤣🤣🤣
I saw it as European and flagged the video, there are 900 videos like this a day , implicating shit on Russia thats simply false, pure speculation or American cope.
RUclips however supports warmongering uploaders like this that rather see the war continue and the death of both Ukrainians and Russians.
This war = Views for this guy, he is directly profiting of the death of ukrainians and russians.
The same way America profits of the weaponry it sells.
I love your insights! Keep up the great work!
the West MUST not stop supporting Ukraine, Putins war machine is going to collapse very soon, !! He is DESPARATE !!!!!!! I am praying that the FOOLS in Europe understand that, !!!
Thankyou Anders.
Australia/ Thank you Andres-you are one of my 'go-to' speakers/commentators each day. Always well received.
Tak for videoen. Indholdet på din kanal er af høj kvalitet. Jeg ser frem til din næste publicering.
Hvorvor har en random dansk kommentar 115 likes?
Det ved jeg ikke @@echoplots8058 - men jeg føler mig nu ikke særlig tilfældig her i verden😅
@@echoplots8058 Fordi ejeren af kanalen er dansk og derfor sikkert også har mange danske følgere? ;D
Thankyou Anders.!
Can I add, from a modeling perspective, that models like the logistics curve predict a surge in recruitment incentives or payments just before the available manpower starts to run out.
That model predicts that after the spike you can offer whatever you would like and there simply aren't people who want it.
This suggests that the pool of voluntary recruits may be much smaller than it appears at first glance.
Its a simple toy model to be clear and doesn't prove anything to be clear but there is cause for worry here if your modelling the Russian side. It shouldn't be controversial to speculate that by 2026 there will be serious issues.
Quite the opposite as far as I can tell. It would be borderline insane to suggest we can be confident the Russian side will be stable through 2026.
Putin is even striping sailors from his navy to send to the front lines !!!!
This assumption is running under the belief that Russia is taking heavy losses on the battlefield, which they are not. Clearly they are taking losses, but their numbers of losses are nowhere near what the western media is trying to tell us they are. Russia would have to have losses in the millions to trigger this, their losses are nowhere near this.
Nearly everything this guy has said is pure fiction. Russia is not running this war off of their savings, the US is not the only country that can run deficits and keep their economy going. The Russians did not find expensive ways to bypass the sanctions, they are just trading with the rest of the world.
@@TOMAS-lh4er any proof for that?
@@markobucevic8991There are Russian language articles covering it. Look up the Kuznetsov if curious
@T : Putin already was redeploying elite air men to front lines a year ago, as well as oil and gas workers.
@m: You’ll know by 2026, won’t you??
How any economy / business survives with 19% interest is a mystery. 😊
You mean like the US, UK, most of Europe in the 1970s - try reading some history
agree
@@charlygriffin2828 So comparing to 80 years ago with completely different economic situations is a good answer? in fact it shows how ridiculous the situation is in the first place if you have to dig up stuff so far back
Im from Turkey, our interest rate is around 50% lol.
In the US, there were a few years during the eighties when savings bonds hit 13% and housing mortgages were over 20%
Edit: apparently, I was thinking of five-year mortgages. It was a while ago.
Jeg har fulgt dine analyser i mere end et år, og de forekommer mig meget korrekte. Tak for det!
Russia is HUGE, and HAD a lot of resources.
HAD, the past of HAVE. Not sure WHEN Russia runs so low on resources that they have to pull back and go into "not peace but not attacking anymore" mode. But it will happen at a point.
Could start happening by mid 2025, we’ll start seeing the effects in the front lines.
Lots of the USSR’s resources were in Ukraine and the “Stan” countries in Central Asia. Ruzzia does still have a lot of resources, but not the economy and industry to take full advantage of them. They are spending all their money and manpower on the war and military production. They were also dependent on equipment and maintenance techs from Western countries for their oil/gas wells and many other industries, and eventually things are going to break that they can’t fix.
Russia has a massive trade surplus and you''re talking about them running out of resources hahaha. NATO cannot come close to Russia's arms output and you're actually talking about resources like it's a win? You will never beat Russia in a battle of resources especially when Europe is an unproductive husk that was already dependent on Russian resources.
@@intenzityd3181 You mean "HAD" a massive trade surplus. It's all gone. Ruzzia three years ago was propped up by exports military equipment and of crude and refined petroleum products. Ruzzia now is only covering the cost of production with its sales of crude. It has to import gasoline and kerosene as well as drones, missiles and ammunition. And no one wants to buy the ruzzian military gear that has proven itself to be nearly worthless in actual practice.
bro your gdp smaller than texas which is a single US state…sorry europe and usa are busy adding another russia to our gdp amounts
They lost approximately 6 months of ammo this week. so direct effect on frontline, how and where to store it, logistical nightmare, the huge cost (2x because they need to remake, rebuy), production time etc.
oh and more of these ammodumps Are in range....
It's a snow ball. They lost more as their restock capability is 4 million short of workers. Their ability to transport resources around russia to produce military stuff is also deminished, due to lack of personnel and parts cost/ access. Finally, financing of all this endevour is shrinking.
They lost like 2 to 4 months worth of ammo. But still, you're right.
@@feuervogel1880 i understood that the 1st ammodump was 3 months worth. and they hit 2 more, and a number of smaller ones. in truth its all a guesstimate of course, but let's settle on Lots ;-)
@@puraLusa yupp. also, rail system is collapsing and what no one seems to talk about is the ballbearing issue. russia can't produce them well. bad quality. so they were always importing them. And Everything needs them. factories, truck, trains, planes etc.
@@CyberBeep_kenshi and what we dont hear is how both sides do this fairly frequently. this is the other reason Ukr had a severe lack of ammo recently.
Helpful?? More than helpful. Essential viewing.
I have stopped being surprised by how out of touch people that have been following this war for a long time can be,
The average journalist or average person has no clue what is going on.
That Russia is spending far more money than it can afford long term has been clear since very early in the war, yet people keep talking about Russia being able to afford it indefinitely.
Keeps being painful to hear for sure, but it is not surprising anymore.
Who does that? If anything mainstream media has been claiming russian shortages since almost the beginning of the war. Already in 2022, western media claimed that russia was running out of missiles, and that soldiers were sent to the front only with shovels .. If that was the state of the russian army in 2022, how come they're even capable of fighting today? Shouldn't every russian soldier by now be equipped with nothing but a shovel?
I guess it's because Russia keeps telling everyone they're doing great, and evidently a lot of people are believing it.
It's a perception that Russia itself has long been pushing to deter its enemies and keep its vassals in line. Given they've been pushing it since the Soviet era, I'm not surprised that many people - even Russia - have deluded themselves by the notion.
But russia's debt to GDP ratio is only 15% so if the war dragged on for 15+ more years I could see it being a problem but until they get to about 30% debt (the average in Eastern Europe) I doubt they will have economic "collapse"
@@Orcram Who is going to lend the Russian government money once they exhaust their reserves in 2025?
I just saw a Forbes article which reported that Russia took all the 1,000 sailors on its ONLY Aircraft Carrier (The Admiral Kuneztov) and transferred them to the ARMY and sent them to Ukraine.
THAT is how desperate Russia is for Troops!
Slava Ukrainia!
Maybe they need the sailors to man those brand new 80 tanks A MONTH coming off the assembly line in russia…..
Poland allowed millions of Ukraine people to migrate there when it did not have employment for them.
It would make sense for them to excessively ramp up war materials needed by Ukraine, Europe; and themselves. Other countries can purchase it for the Ukraine war.
All wars bleed their economic power and their allies. South Korea defence by USA cost millions every year. Who ever mentions stopping it to save money. How would the USA be condemned if it was ended?
The bleeding only stops when the funding stops. It's not just Korea but many countries. When will they defend themselves with their own money?
Our own economic collapse can be attributed partly to this military spending that others will never take credit for causing by not taking their own defence seriously to pay for it themselves.
I agree we should give immediate assistance to our friends overseas that are attacked, but not make it open-ended.
Completely agree and just want to add that the Kuznetsov is little more than a floating metal tinderbox. It spends more time on fire than it does at sea. Russia's only carrier is as much a joke as the rest of the Russian military is.
Byly to hlavně ženy a děti z Ukrajiny! Česká Republika a Polsko jim pomohlo! To jsme je neměli vpustit? Vždyť všichni věřili že to Ukrajina neustojí! Moc věříte Ruským lžím! Bez pomoci USA demokratickým režimům a spojencům by USA za čas bojovalo s diktátory na vlastních hranicích. Mimochodem USA nikdy moc neprodělalo až do Afganistánu!
@@jeromehaymaker5071usa has done this to be the Leader of the world
... altid rart med et nøgternt og nuanceret syn på sagerne - tak!🙂
Tak!
who provoked the war in Ukraine?
-the USA has violated its oath not to expand NATO.
Subsequently Bill Clinton refused Russia's request for NATO membership
- in 2007 Georgian President Saakasvili close to the CIA had shot the peacekeepers of South Ossetia;
- by Victoria Nuland's admission it was the USA which financed the Maidan revolution which ended in a constitutional coup and a bloodbath under false flag with neo-Nazi snipers...
- the USA asked Ukraine not to apply the Minsk 2 agreements and over-armed -Ukraine,that had amassed troops at the beginning of 2022 to carry out ethnic cleansing in the Dombas
Factors driving Russia’s inflation:
4) sanctions regime reduces supply, being massively outstripped by demand.
5) price hikes for logistics
6) massive increases in taxes (companies need the increase prices to keep profitable)
7) exchange rate collapse of the Ruble, further escalating price hikes for industry and consumer business.
....and when you were in Russia last time!!?? When you watcing this channel, it means you watching someone who predicted for two and a half year.....and failed. Look to this channel 2 years ago......what did he predict, and what happened in reality? If your conclusions are correct, then explain to me.....the russian economy was the strongest european economy growing in 2022 and 2023. This is about GDP, it is about math!! And this was made by the IMF, and not by some russian propagandists. I often go to Russia and i see myself how things develop. Continue watching this channel, and Anders the "molbo" will create one more idiot.
In your dreams only.
@@angeurbain6129 "In your dreams" the simple principles of economics don't apply.
But then you get to wake if you've not been sent over the top in a meat wave attack.
@@bakedbean37 This is not just what is happening in Russia. Wars have a cost, but up to know Russia can manage this cost quite well and can do so easily for the near future. Russian export are still strong and the money Russia is making out ot these exportation basically cover the cost of the war in Ukraine. Now you also have to look at the other side of the equation: the cost of this war and the santions against Ruia for the western economy. And don't forget that the ukraine is living on the western welfare.
@@angeurbain6129 Ukraine, not "the ukraine is living on the western welfare."
In the free world we don't begrudge a friend in need.
Consistently high quality information. Thank you, Anders.
Lol, how is this high quality information, I can make this video in my head here Ill do it for you "Bad russia bad , muriiiccaaaa"
There you go.
@@sodanakin share your wallet now, don't do hi-q info for free ok?
Looking forward to the high quality info on how Kiev's economy is doing.
@@sodanakin russian troll accounts are so salty. Cry harder, Ivan. Cry harder 🤣🤣
Great to hear intelligently presented info.
Thank you.
200 hundred thousand of subscribers of the channel Conflict & War .
Another milestone 😊
Commenting for algorythm, so many need to see this, share this
Yup yup yup
Comment
5 months ago: Ukraine's strategic bombing campaign: will the Russian economy collapse?
Today: Russia's war economy is unstable
Tomorrow: why are the sanctions not working?
@@lancerevo9747 Time will tell.
@@lancerevo9747
Absolutely.
I'm stunned by the level of propaganda western medias, who supposed to be free and objective, pour every day just for clicks (hopefully not for interests of their governments).
I actually inform myself from "eastern" channels, they're much more objective.
Sad, but true
Western leaders have said Ukraine should decide the terms of any peace agreement. This should hold.
Isolationist approach and sanctions should remain post hostilities indefinitely as long as any part of Ukraine is still under occupation.
Khreson and Zaporozhiye are Russia and no occupation of Russian soil is tolerated by Russian society.
Largest Organized Crime Syndicate on the planet and you want to negotiate?
@@ux-zd6hu oh go away and drink your coffee.
@@ux-zd6hu
Pro RU are currently tolerating the occupation of Kursk area :)
Sanctions could be used after the war to slow Russia's rebuilding her war machine to allow the West to strengthen theirs. Nuclear weapons are expensive to maintain so a reduction in their nucs with a reduction in the west's nucs for a gradual lifting of sanctions could be negotiated. Also a gradual lifting of sanctions after Russia leaves Ukraine in response to Russia footing the bill to rebuild Ukraine
Not only a top notch military analyst but Anders knows his economy too.
Yeah right play it again John and don't forget to pick up the bullshit when you leave 😉 🙄 🙂 😏
No, he doesn't. And he isn't.
@@elvismiki9121 Troll Savushkina 55
@@Princip666 Troll Savushkina 55
@@elvismiki9121 Would you care to elaborate on that...? Or are you just full of bullshit...?
You lay the facts out in a well organized, understandable manner. Thanks.
Another excellent video! Thanks!
Thank you again for your timely and informed synopsis.
I would like to pose a question if I may to anyone.
I feel like I have been hearing that "XYZ" with Russia is "Unsustainable" for almost three years now.
When does the unsustainability affect Russia to where we see a collapse? An end to the aggression?
Thank you all for any answers to my query
Thanks for the excellent overview of the economic situation and implications. commenting for the algorithm.
Brilliant economic review,Sir!
You only have to look at the inflation rate, very high interest rates, and ongoing shrinkage of the Russian government's financial reserves to see that its war economy is unsustainable.
I so appreciate your clarity and incisiveness. I can only hope that those with the power are listening to you.
You left out a very important driver up inflation, which is exchange rates, particularly with the Chinese yuan. Russia is running out of foreign currencies and can only pay China in yuan and not ruples. This drives up the exchange rate with the yuan, which in turn supercharges inflation
Rubbish your Biased BS is showing as the Russian's have been developing their war economy along with BRICS and the cash flow does go both ways, in reality more ways than it ever did as China and India plus some African and south American nations are moving and transferring Russian goods Energy and cash. They win and we lose, hell the Western economies as you have to be blind not to see how we in our arrogance shot ourselves in our political foot and we will pay the ferryman?? Realities bite will sting. Cheers
Simplistic thinking. Russia owns the most and often most abundant natural resources in the world, from fresh water to uranium or gold, and can use these to pay for anything it needs for as long as it wants.
@@breakbollocks9164 not true. China is its biggest trading partner and only pays in Yuan. China also requires that everything Russia buys from it is in Yuan. They are intentionally trying to disintermediate the Russian ruble to exert influence over Russia.
@@breakbollocks9164 pay with fresh water? Now that's a new one
@@XGD5layer Lake Baikal crying
Well considered and explained Anders.
Thank you for making this!
I think some statements can benefit from fact checking, but in general the main idea is totally right 👍👍
All of this does not need 20 years of experience in military matters. It commen economics. A main issue in the west is what uneducated children we allow to be journalists.
Common*
all in all this is a very uneducated and badly punctuated comment.
@@James-sh4zf 'It is common' to be even more pernickety. The second sentence isn't constructed in an especially educated way either. Still if the writer's 'name' is Ork then maybe there's a clue there 🤔😆
@@James-sh4zf If you substitute "commen" for "common," he's right. And Anders was surprised that the journalists hadn't figured out this by themselves.
This is not because journalists are uneducated, it is because journalists are overworked. They have to produce as many news as fast as possible (to compete with social media) leaving them with minimum time to research. A journalist working on daily news normally gets a topic in the morning (a topic that they could have some expertise or none at all) and they have a number of hours (less than working day) to research, contact, produce and edit it. And they cannot give more time to produce better news because they need to have the news fast (if you are not the first publishing nobody will read them), and media makes not enough money to, lets say, double the number of hired journalists (because less people consume traditional media).
Imagine that tomorrow you need to produce some news on the last developments of the war in Ukraine, the day after on the US elections, the day after on the public opinion in your country/state about the economical situation in your country/state, the next day on the last UN report on climate change... This is what journalist have to do nowadays. The consequences are obvious.
It is a super complicated problem and nobody knows the way out, at least yet.
Spot on video. I would only go a little bit more in detail in regards to money reserves. In the first year of war Russia did not need to use them since they enjoyed high oil & gas priced plus the cost of war was limited - as they were using soldiers already in the normal payroll. Second year according to the Russia Central bank reserves went down some USD 58-59B since costs were going up and oil and gas prices went back to normal and gas volumes (to Europe) collapsed. After that I find no more credible info but we know: 1) Gazprom went severely in the red. From making Billions of profit to tens of Billions of losses 2) Direct costs of war climbing 3) Ukraine hitting refineries resulted in bans on export of refined products. So it is not hard to imagine that Russua will be burning some USD 100B/yesr of reserves. They started war at around USD 600B but half was immediately frozen in Europe/US. So mid/end 2025 - max 2026 - adds up as point where the reserves piggy bank runs out - depending on oil prices. With the oil prices currently also dipping and Ukraine doing some major blowing up in Russia I bet on second half 2025. No wonder that the minister of Defense in Russia is now a bean counter with no military experience.
Excellent and encouraging report! thanks Anders!
Budanov is a very intelligent general for sure! 💙💛
Det er virkeligt nogle informative og gennemarbejdede videoer du laver - 12!
I'd like to see a comparison of both war time economies
Excellent discussion of the issues without a lot of hype. Just subscribed too.
Thank You. The only channel where i have the bell icon on.
Same!
Perun just made two great videos comparing the russian and Ukrainian state of economy.
Agree. Both worth a look as is this video by Anders.
A little something about economic capacity. Russia has a share of 2-3% of global GDP. Ukraine is supported by countries that are responsible for around 50% of global GDP.
With inflation in Russia, the 8-9% figure is very implausible. In Russian Telegram channels, there are repeated reports of price increases of 25-30% in the fall for various products and services, such as food, air travel, telephone tariffs, etc. Without naming the basket of goods used for inflation and the prices charged, they can write anything Putin wants.
Inflation is also covariant with growth (cumulative repayment log curve) but they grew the cemetery not their nation 💀
who cares? are you living in russia? i couldn't care less whether they have 0% inflation or 200000% inflation.
the thing that i care about is the fact that gas prices and taxes are through the roof and groceries and everything else has doubled or tripled over the last three years ever since our incompetent and short-sighted leaders started virtue signaling with this whole project ukraine thing and started pushing failed backfiring sanctions that have destroyed our economies and completely deindustrialized countries like germany for example.
venezuela has had either 1.5 quadrillion or 15 quadrillion percent inflation since the 1980s with most of it happening within the last 15 years, and have they collapsed? have our sanctions changed anything, or have they just backfired and just increased gas prices ever since the oil industry in venezuela was destroyed? have the sanctions caused their little dictator to go like "awww, quadrillion percent inflation over the last 20 years since supreme comrade chavez.. gee, i guess i better resign now" or are they still in power?
so please, stop with the nonsense about how russia this and that and inflation in russia and blah blah. nobody cares about inflation in russia. we're not russia. nobody cares if comrade ivanovitch from siberia is paying 30% more for their phone bill. russia is not gonna collapse because comrade ivanovitch is angry about his phone bill going up. the russian military is going to keep getting everything that it needs. russia has near infinite soviet stockpiles and infinite resources and energy that everyone wants to purchase and that are bringing in hundreds of billions of dollars per year allowing them to keep chugging along as if nothing happened and keep making their own stuff and purchasing everything else that they need and continue this conflict indefinitely. unlike zelensky that is begging and breaking the eardrums of our leaders for more cash. unlike ukraine that depends on charity from our taxpayers on the other side of the planet in order to keep going and that has received nearly half a trillion dollars so far in the last two and half years with absolutely no signs of progress in literally two years now. quite the opposite, they're getting worse and worse and are now right on the verge of collapse.
so yeah, spare us the stories about russian inflation. not only have we heard these tales a hundred times already, but it has absolutely zero impact on any of us.
@@issadraco532This comment is completely irrelevant to the wider conversation of sustainability for Russia’s war against Ukraine or its economy. If you want to rant about isolationist rhetoric the pen and paper for a manifesto are right next to you.
@@issadraco532 Your comment is a fever dream of nonsensical arguments for disconnected discussions. You might wanna take a deep breath and re evaluate the way you express yourself if you want any chance to be taken at least slightly seriously by anyone. Good luck
@@issadraco532 Where did you get the BS that petrol prices have doubled or tripled? And the story that Germany has been deindustrialised is also just a fantasy story. This BS is only spread by the radical right or conspiracy theorists. You also don't seem to realise that if you let Putin conquer Ukraine, it will soon be the next country's turn. But it's probably pointless discussing this with you because either you're trapped in your information bubble, or you're spreading propaganda against payment, or you're intellectually incapable of understanding the current Russia/Ukraine situation.
I have been waiting 2 1/2 years for some good news as to how long this war may last. I have subscribed and am looking forward to more of your presentations.
Making predictions is hard, especially about the future. It sure isn't a grateful job 😊
With the Russian penchant for hardship and lack of public opinion, it's near impossible to predict what will happen in that country.
Only thing we can do is push as hard as possible by keep sending material to the Ukranians as well as relief to the population.
Thank you for making this clear - this idea that Russia could go indefinitely was really encouraging anti-war support sentiment in the west
That is what Russian propaganda is feeding (as that is their only way to win this war)
Yeah, until a USSR type break up of russia. This time the geopolitical “tragedy” will be totally Putin’s fault. He won’t be able to rewrite the history books into some Pollyanna shiny reimagining of this event, the incompetent russian leader of small stature. He so wanted to go down in history as the next Peter the Great and it just isn’t happening with almost a million russian men dead and the russian birth rate dropping precipitously. Russia’s future is dimming.
Debt to gdp ratio say they can go another 15 years 🤦 before they reach out levels of debt!
As the value of the ruble drops, the contract fighters will get more and more unhappy.😢
I highly doubt that.
The IMF still expects Russia to have real GDP growth of 3.6% this year. Higher than Western Europe.
October 2024. World Economic Outlook. IMF
Russia is under sanctions and they produce their own weapons and food.
The conversion rate from USD to RUB isn't as important to Russia now as it would have been before the sanctions.
Most enlightening! Thank you.
' . . . are beginning to become visible' You didn't elaborate.
A replay of what happened in Hitler's Third Reich. Huge expansion, huge war, huge crash.
Yes, Ukraine roleplaying the Third reich is a tragic comedy.
@@Princip666
Silly little troll 👹
@@Princip666 No. Putin is doing that. Obvious truth. Ukraine is fighting for its sovereign independence. Take a look at their neighbouring Poland and get the message. Poland also faces potential damage from Russia just as it did from Hitler and Stalin. Poland is in NATO and an ally of Ukraine and preparing.
@@Princip666 You seem to have drunk too much vodka, because otherwise you would have noticed that the parallels between Hitler's Germany and Putin's Russia are astounding. And if you want to make comparisons, then you had to compare Ukraine with Poland, but with one small difference. In WW2 Poland was invaded by Russia and Nazi Germany, and Ukraine now only by Russia.
Indeed Germany lost the war mainly from a logistical sustainability issue than military. It just couldn't sustain the level of production, especially against the ever increasing production levels of the Allies. Both Japan's and Germany's strategy was to strike quickly, giving a knockout blow and grabbing desperately needed resources. Both failed to complete the job.
Nice presentation. Very professional. I subscribed!
Wonderful video. Thank you
RS. Canada
As usual very informative video.
And compliments to your English, one if easier to understand without subtitles 😂
Thank you for this video - this Information should be propagated more into the typical political discussions like in ZDF
Anders, excellent discussion on two types of war economies: Russia vs Ukraine. Russia is caught in a closed system, most of the war production is heavy industry with foreign components to make the equipment functional. Yes, a tank chassis costs more or less the same as in 2019, but those expensive foreign components - high tech electronics - cost much more and must be purchased in western currencies and around sanctions. Ukraine's tanks and equipment are essentially gifts, produced and paid by western countries and shipped, with training, to forward staging locations. Unlike Russia's large state enterprises located near major cities, Ukraine's growing 'cottage arms industries' produce rockets and drones at discrete locations, beyond the reach of Russian weapons. This scenario, removes the need for thousands of heavy industry workers competing with military recruitment. Lastly, there is the contribution from expatriates working outside the war zone. 2-3 million Ukrainians left the country in the first years of the war. They moved west into Poland, Romania, and beyond where they settled down, got jobs, and are sending remittances to relatives in Ukraine much like Cuban American exiles send dollars to relatives in Cuba. Conversely 1 to 1.5 million better educated and motivated Russians escaped to the west for a new and permanent life. Many are considered traitors by their families and the government, making them less likely to send money, through difficult currency controls, back to Russia. For Russia, it is a slippery slope to economic collapse, affecting city dwellers more than rural peasants. If the war ended today, it would take years to cancel sanctions and restore business with Russia. From an infrastructure standpoint, factories, refineries, and transportation modes may take decades to train new workers and restore facilities.
What a unique piece of nonsense, created after an overdose of "independent media". Even my grandmother, a person as far removed from politics as possible, could have given a more competent analysis.
Well presented, succinct and logical.
I love the sanction discussion.
When people claim: "Look, the sanctions don't work. Because Russia was able to buy a 20 year old lebanese Airplane in Sudan, which they imported to Russia for spare parts."
So, when did these people get the idea, that buying a 20 year old car, in another country, is a "good way" when your car needs a spare part?
WTF are you talking about? They just gained 1st world country status again! 🤦
45s ago, yey!
Thank you for your work Mr. Nielsen.
Actually I don’t think that the price of “tanks” remain the same. Labor costs in the war industries are increasing just as fast as those in other industries. In addition sanctions have also increased the costs of purchasing the things necessary to build “tanks” - as you indicate in your brief.
Yep. Perun went into Russia’s inflation and said exactly this. Demand for skilled workers to repair their 1950’s tanks is extremely high. I think the bots will tell us how well these skills translate to other sectors in a post-wartime economy. :P
@@rcchin7897 A couple of millions of their best men LEFT. A lot of skilled metalworkers as well. TMahere is never more than a couple of percent of the TOP skilled men...
Machinist, CNC programmer, welder must be on the job for years before you can expect top results. I do not doubt that a lot of them were sent to the front to be killed.
Thanks for the video ❤
Great analysis and excellent summary. I recall that Russia's birth rate was already in a downward spiral before the war. I imagine the current numbers of dead and self-exiled young men will only make depopulation worse.
It looks bad only till you compare the birth rates of Russia with ANY ex-Soviet republics or the EU, Japan, S. Korea. Then the real picture emerges.
Very good analysis Andreas. I am sure Russian economic analyst might be thinking about it as well. Though, supporting Ukraine at the same level is far fetched as NATO inventories are running out. Like finding batteries of US Air defence is impossible to find in EU. So not sure how long EU can just keep supplying weapons, if it doesn't have its own.
People forget just how small Russias GDP is. It's something like 4% of NATOs. The west is literally throwing it's spare pocket change at the war while Russia is spending a third of government spending on it. Just think about it, Russia is converting itself into a war economy while the west gives its spare equipment and spare change and Russia still can't keep up with western supply.
Why are they letting the ukrainians die by the tens of thousands then ? Wouldnt it be simpler to double or triple that pocket change budget ?
So how come NATO isn’t winning? They can through in a little bit more and win the whole thing. Isn’t that what the West wants?
Thank you so much for providing this detailed and accurate overview of Russian failing war economy for English-speaking audience.
Fascinating as always.
Thank you x
I’ve heard this since day 1 of this war
And since day one, the national sovereign fund of Russia has been depleted
And since day one, the Russian national fund has been depleted
You will hear until the last day of the war that Russia has ample resources to sustain its efforts-until, suddenly, that is no longer the case. People often project past performance into the future, making them vulnerable to Ponzi schemes and investment bubbles. We see a similar situation here.
I learn more here than from reading all the established media reports.
And in a quick, get to the point format. "Here's the topic and here's what you need to know: point 1, point 2, point 3, closing remarks."
Where are you from? The US?😂
In the media I read (French ones), there is basically everything said in this video
Fremragende analyse, tak Anders
I know you definitely didn't intend this, but this is great timing! It's a great addition to the latest Perun video on the Ukrainian economy. Almost seems like you colluded haha.
And Perun’s previous Sunday’s video on the Russian economy.
@@MarcosElMalo2 :) yep
I think the last part of your video is somewhat inaccurate.
Yes, we don't run a wartime economy, but we also produce less new weapons than we send to Ukraine.
Germany still hasn't had her tanks replaced that she sent to Ukraine. The IRIS T anti-air systsems have been sent to Ukraine because Egypt said they'd be happy to wait. Artillery shell production is still awfully lackluster.
And we're also running out of Soviet equipment we can send to Ukraine.
I'd be happy to stand corrected.
by mid 2025 the West's production of "low tech" munitions like artillery shells...will be back to Cold War levels
Do you want to fight? Are you bored with a peaceful and well-fed life?
@@evgeniya7853 They dont even know what actual conflict is... they complain about refugees after they send their sons and daughters to "guard" oil and wheat fields in Syria.
I've seen a lot of MSM interviews of experts on the conflict, the majority say Russia can't sustain this conflict and the interviewer simply ignores them, then continues with scripted questions. I can't remember seeing an intelligent interview on MSM about this subject, even long format current affairs programs don't go into half the details found on YT.
YT channels such as this one are far, far more informative.
Very succinct and thoughtful !
Many thanks for your clear overview !
All sound points, but it's frustrating to listen to them as a Ukrainian.
Ukraine doesn't get enough help to outlast Russia even now, and who knows what happens after elections in the US and other countries. On top of that, our demographic situation is horrible and keeps getting worse. The economy is non-existent. The energy grid is destroyed.
With the approach the West has right now, there is simply no bright future for Ukraine. Either we lose, or we somehow survive but remain without people, economy, infrastructure, and probably a significant portion of land.
You are absolutely right, coming from Denmark, a country that "donate" a lot IN COMPARISON, the truth is, its not something we really feel as an economic burden in our daily life. So we can afford more, and so can the rest of Europe.
Ps! Dont like the word "donation", but could not come up with a better word. But the truth is, that its the Ukraine that do the hard part.
Ukraine will recieve a lot of foreign investment once this war is over i feel. And there is constantly being worked to make ukraine suitable for eu inclusion.
The press is often somber, but there are loads of positive signs all over that ukraine will have a positive future. Diplomacy is just often very unclear and rarely works as the general public expects because there is a lot of stuff going on behind the scenes.
In my view the only thing that would devistating is a trump presidency.
@@E_Dtl Tal for dig selv! Der er faktisk en del Danskere der har svært ved at få tingene til at hænge sammen fordi regeringen forærer en masse penge væk til en tabt sag!
You've been listening to too much news, they're dooming since forever... Energy grid is so destroyed we don't have blackouts now? Sure, winter will probably be worse but not as bad as 2022... What bullcrap about demographic situation? Like please, tell me how a civilian in Ukraine in good conscience can have a kitchen talk "hey Lyoha, I keep noticing demographic situation is getting worse", what does that even mean? How does stuff like birthrate affect you or me anyway?
Again, I'm a pessimist and I assumed we won't have a day without blackouts and russian troops near Odesa and having them STILL around Donetsk after 11 years failing to even get back to Sloviansk (which they held in 2014) is unbelievable.
Nothing of that excuses West being useless at best. It's just no amount of Western, Iranian or North Korean aid can save RF from having everything you listed far worse. There was no way russia is going to win after we sank moskva. None. West and FSB are gaslighting us to think they somehow can pull through. They can't. Stop reading Telegram or wherever you get complaining about demographics, because people don't use that word in real life. Not in Ukraine at least.
Unfortunately Ukraine's position economically and demographically is awful, time for a new leader who understands that and hopefully can negotiate a compromise which gives the country a future