HyperChange 11⚡ Amazon's Autonomy Strategy
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- Опубликовано: 22 янв 2021
- Amazon is building a self-driving car. From investments in Rivian and Aurora Innovations, to buying Zoox outright, Jeff Bezos is making a push towards autonomous EVs. With thousands of delivery vans and trucks driving around our cities, delivering packages, Amazon has a key asset in he self-driving race. An existing business to subsidize data collection. Tesla is years ahead in developing self-driving tech, and Amazon is desperate to catchup. What are your thoughts?
LINK - Amazon shipping costs: www.statista.com/statistics/8....
LINK - Amazon buys Zoox: www.forbes.com/sites/bradtemp...
LINK - Zoox worth $3.2B in 2018: techcrunch.com/2018/07/17/sel...
LINK - Amazon orders 100,000 Rivian vans: www.theverge.com/2019/9/19/20...
LINK - Amazon buys Rivian: www.nytimes.com/2019/02/15/bu...
LINK - Amazon invests in Aurora Innovation: www.wired.com/story/amazon-au...
LINK - Amazon buying thousands of vans: www.caranddriver.com/news/a30....
LINK - Aurora acquires Uber's self-driving unit: aurora.tech/blog/aurora-is-ac...
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Music by Marko: / markothedon & Fritz Carlton: / fritzcarlton
Disclaimer: This video is purely my opinion and should not be regarded as factual information. I am not a financial advisor. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Do not assume any facts and numbers in this video are accurate. Always do your own due diligence. As of 01/23/2021 HyperChange host (Galileo Russell) is invested in shares of Tesla (TSLA), Spotify (SPOT), Arcimoto (FUV), Snap (SNAP) and long the crypto currencies Bitcoin and Maker. Galileo is also an investor in SpaceFilche LLC, an SPV that owns SpaceX stock. 
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Amazon’s business model is simple...”Turning expenses into revenue opportunities”
I'm loving the continued HyperChange series. Your amazing keep up the good work Gali
Amen
thank you bro! that means a lot coming from the young investor :)
They didn’t parter with Tesla because Elon and Jeff aren’t BFFs.
Jeff who ?
The competitive relationship between Bezos and Musk will benefit all of humanity.
Long live competition!
@@danchatka8613 it will be their defense at their anti monopoly breakup trials in 2031.
Iron Man vs. Lex Luthor wasn't the Marvel/DC crossover anyone expected, but it's the one we got. ;)
Amazon partnered with Rivian to have their own little b*tch, not someone with balls and determination like Tesla
I don't know. This is nothing until it's something. Even Rivian is nothing until they're at least producing pre-production vehicles. Analysts slept on Tesla even while they were delivering thousands of cars and getting awards, but now people are way too excited about EV companies that aren't making anything, and the inevitable result was Nikola, and it wouldn't surprise me if Rivian, Lordstown, Bollinger, Workhorse, Lucid, Fisker, etc. fell apart.
So true. Tesla is building factories faster than most of these companies are building cars...
Exactly, most of these “next Tesla’s” will fail.
I agree with you. These all other companies like in old days search engines and only Google survived. I do t count yahoo anymore because their search brings crap!!
I agree in general. I do believe Rivian has a good product though, and there will be a market for them. With their investments and partnerships w/ Ford and Amazon, I see them as the most likely to succeed out of this group ☝️
Exactly. If there's one of the above companies that has some chances to succeed, it should be Rivian. Maybe Lucid too. Will be exciting to see!
I propose to call, from now on, geo-fenced systems such as Waymo's, "automated cars" and Tesla's solution, "autonomous cars."
Waymo = Scalextric
@@mrsith1402 Had to look that one up, but yes ;-) !
Thanks, Gali. Tesla still has the upper hand in Autonomous cars. I am also interested if Rivian can deliver. I see an awful lot of Amazon delivery vans in my neighborhood!
@@dirkkruisheer I am English sorry
@@mrsith1402 I'm Dutch, so no worries!
I can totally see an Amazon taxi service. Makes total sense and they’ll be very aggressive tying it in to Prime etc etc the future is very interesting.
Will you call for self driving Amazon taxi or Tesla if the price will be the same?
@@jacekpiterow900 Ha! Well at this point in time most likely Tesla as Ive never been in one but as a deep Amazon customer i'm sure they'll offer some incentive to use their service.
Gali lets get a classic Tesla financial model out to 2025! It's been years since and I think after Q4 earnings call you'll have all you need to scale the new tech out (FSD/ENERGY/AUTO/SOLAR)
aight if i must :)
@@HyperChangeTV You don't have to, but it would be very interesting to see & get a feel for what is possible ^^
With all the analysts being so wrong (predicting half or less production compared to than Elon (and common sense) predicts), a fair analysis would be VERY eye-opening to many, I feel.
Tesla, Amazon, Apple. VW will just survive as carmaker.
No Chinese companies?
Neither Apple or Amazon will be major car manufacturers... there is room for VW besides Tesla
@@ToddiThaKid VW isn't going anywhere.
@@patrickbateman783 i really doubt it too 😃
Chinese companies are coming, just like the Japanese cars in the 1970's.
Amazon Robotics has built 100K KIVA pods. They just really need to use their team make a larger more sophisticated version of it. Wrights Law would also help their pods this way as it would scale their manufacturing. Their DC's are
Every time I listen to Gali talk, my IQ gets a little higher 🤘🏽🥴❗️
I have to force myself to think faster just to listen to him at normal speed.
HOLY MOLY! This was awesome Gali!
Thank you, Gali!
Nice video man, love hearing about the competition and other companies from you.
Gali delivering a hyper-onpoint and hyper-relevant high-intensity hyper-fill of relevant, helpful info per always.
Great breakdown and macro look at the robotaxi race at the moment, thanks as always for your excellent insights!
Awesome information, thanks 😊
The new Amazon van has been seen being used to deliver packages in some major cities!
It's Arrival.
That Menē lookin sharp bro 😉👌
Got mine last month, stunning!
How are Amazon's driverless delivery vehicles going to get packages to the recipient's door?
drones and smaller bots. He forgot amazon as additional incentives to solve the autonomy problem (+ more subsidized data)
They could still employ a human to ride along. You just pay them less. Alternatively, some deliveries might be curb-side only, where the customer has to come out to the delivery vehicle to pick up their package. But as Financial Firefly said, eventually there will be additional drones for that part.
You walk outside to get it from the autonomous vehicle 🤷🏾♂️
Alexa - "One new notification, a shipment has arrived 2 miles from your house"
Customer - "Alexa, bring parcel to me"
Alexa - "I'm sorry, I do not understand, let me tell you about the weather"
I think 100k amazon fleet vehicles maybe in 2022 is going to be nothing compared to Tesla's 3 million vehicles all collecting data in 2022. Elon has said multiple times that making the prototype is easy but making the actual vehicle is exponentially harder. I believe Tesla's lead is far greater than most people think.
Great assessment, Gali!!👌🏻👌🏻
Good Video.
Nice vid!
this is awesome investigative journalism w/ investing focus! keep it up Gali
Nice coverage
Data flywheel is key! Don't forget the drone portion of this. Amazon has an additional incentive to merge the Auto fleet and drones for remote location last-mile delivery and charging.
Bang on
Dope.
Great video
I think it's great that Gali is just as enthustiastic about Tesla as he was on day one. Enviable, really!
Whoah, Gali! I think you nailed it! Really impressive, and just the type of content I really like from this channel: Putting the puzzle pieces together to see who will battle for what in 3-5 years. Spot on!
This video also made me realize just how much of an advantage Tesla has as they have become the masters of manufacturing. Apples main advantage has been design. Googles main advantage has been fast, userfriendly web-based software. Amazons main advantage has been userfriendly online shopping and using data to improve an expanding product line. But when the rubber hits the road, I think the company that masters data and manufacturing will be the one to win energy production, energy storage and self-driving transportation, since they are all connected and being fast requires vertical integration. 👌🏻
Love the content!! My mans needs a background though
How awesome would it be if Amazon started buying the Semi from Tesla? Win-Win for both companies. Although I don't think Tesla can keep up with the demand Amazon needs at the moment.
Also, I think Tesla needs to start making vans for commercial and industrial use. I know a lot of people who want to buy an electric van from Tesla and are stuck with the crappy vans from Ford/Chevy.
aihh.. yes... Begun the Robo-Taxi wars has.
Btw, totally agree! This.will.happen. Makes total sense for Amazon to equip their Rivian vans with sensors and get the flywheel going.
It's funny. I've watched so much of your content that now I'm 2 mins in and I've already predicted majority of your insights for the rest of the video 😂
I think it’s not that easy to collect quality data from delivery vans as driving a delivery van is totally different than driving a regular car. Delivery drivers won’t be using “autopilot” as much because of stop and go and double park nature of their driving.
Just think of the classic travelling salesman problem. Amazon will get data from billions of miles of constantly varying routes, and learn from all of what is experienced, if Amazon puts sensors on its delivery vehicles. Double parking and stop and go, are pretty trivial differences than what Tesla cars experience, for example.
Apple is going to buy self driving license from Tesla! Problem solved!
I was an investor in Amazon from 2014. I also used AWS in my professional life. I have just sold all my shares in the last few days for 2 reasons - 1 buy vs build approach will dilute their expertise 2 they are getting too involved in actions that imo are anti competitive, politically motivated. Amazon's strategy is lile GM and Ford ie buying capital eating startups, means they will fail entirely. Btw Rivian are dead.
15:06 -- Savage comment by Gali
Hey Gali - great video - super thoughts on amazon and autonomy! The way you laid it out seems like the most natural evolution. Amazon to deliver packages autonomously (evolution of their core business) and next "deliver" humans with autonomous road transport (extension of their business)....
Hi, I made a modest gain buying FUV when it was below $6 and selling at around $8 (repeatedly).
I was unwilling to buy back in at the current higher valuation, but your addition to the board made me buy a few anyway :)
On topic: Tesla will have no problem whatsoever building a delivery van or a people mover when they want to.
The point is that it makes no sense to do it right now. Demand for their current vehicles exceeds their production capacity so making more models only creates added costs for no gain in revenue.
Things will likely change once Giga Shanghai, Giga Berlin and Tera Austin are fully operational. Not just because there's way more room for production, but also because that production is more efficient; producing more cars in a smaller space. There will be room for new vehicles outside the known spectrum.
Even so, there needs to be a market for over 100,000 EV vans or people movers per year before it becomes lucrative enough to put the effort in to design them and build production lines.
Tesla may be perfectly happy to let others test the waters and only jump in when it is clear that they can make a big wave.
congrats about getting on the arc board.
That Intro and outro is much better Gali.
This is what I come to RUclips for!
Love this thought but I'm not too excited about it learning to drive from Amazon van drivers. Those guys are in a hurry.
LOL
Bitcoin + stocks are the place to be now (and until the dust settles).
I made $4,500 from trading with $500 within 48 hours with Exprt Charles Parker. Most people don't realize that the crypto market is 90% psychology
What if you don't know how to trade any of these? I mean, I see your point. Some people have the money and are willing to invest. But the problem is where to.
@@BlGDADDYC dude, this is 21st century. People who aren't even traders make money from the crypto and fore x markets and moreover there are already financial analysts and trading experts(PhDs) who have shelled out theories and ideas for years on how bit coin technically grows.
Investing in bitcoin now is the best option by a strategic being looking forward to a better future
Wow I'm just shocked you mentioned and recommended Charles Parker Services, I thought people don't know him ... he is really awesome!
LOL @6:57 quick little water break 😂
lol
good episode Galli. Thank you! What about AWS vs Dojo? I'd think Amazon might have an edge there ...
Elon is ahead of cars already-he’s “building the machine that builds the machines.” Manufacturing is the grail.
Interesting report Gali. We cannot ignore the last few feet of package delivery. It could be solved with robots and perhaps the self driving tech will also pioneer robots that can bring a package to your door. Being a New Yorker I’m a bit skeptical. In the canyons of Manhattan we cannot even get packages from human deliveries like FedEx, UPS, or USPS! Packages get left in the lobby and stolen, or just not left at all. All the sensors and data in the world will not solve this one.
Arcimoto!! Into the future!!
Amazon is trending towards becoming the world's greatest logistics company - moving data, packages, and now people.
TESLA's BUS will come as boring company start to build tunnels.
The Tesla bus or robotaxi is the less complicated part, once FSD is good enough, Tesla have everything to build a special purpose vehicle and use their FSD for it.
$ bet that the refreshed X is a boxy luxury people carrier, competitive with luxury SUVs like the Yukon/Escalade. Think Glass cybertruck with falcon wings all around... The same frame, skinned with stainless, becomes the Tesla delivery van.
In FSD world not being number one means death.
not if nr1 is production constrained.
Liking the Matrix white cube vibe.
There sure is a lot of promises of "autonomous" driving car, but the only one I've seen in application is Tesla.
"ROBOTAXI WARS" I like the sound of that!!
Amazon should buy Rivian
Dont forget they bought Zoox for $2B, this is NOT mature autonomous technology valuation.
I think your right on the money with this one. It's all about the flywheel until someone solves it and is willing to license it. You've revealed Amazon's most likely flywheel. On a similar vein we've seen UPS make an investment in TuSimple for long haul trucking automation and FedEx released the SameDay Bot a while back as a prototype for last mile delivery. All these logistics companies have been realizing what's happening these past few years.
OEMs are toast. Big tech may bulldoze the transition to EVs and autonomous vehicles.
The only difference is Tesla vs Amazon is you can actual own your own car vs amazon you can't own that bus. But I like your input I agree
Would be interesting if you could address the issues and the likely mass unemployment for the transport sector (taxi and logistics) when full autonomy hits the market.
With autonomous (driverless) trucks, how is Amazon going to get my package(s) from the truck to my door?
You will have to walk.
Intelligent robots. There are already robots that can walk, climb steps, carry stuff, etc. Think about a van that cruises down your street, dispatching multiple 'last mile' robots that securely deliver your package, groceries, pizza, or whatever. The van makes a circle and picks up the robots that have finished their deliveries and heads to where a larger vehicle is waiting to refill the van.
Tesla is likely to get there first.
Amazon ring can open your automatically and a robot can put the package or groceries in your Amazon Alexa fridge....;)
Deliveries truck with out person lolll
Youre package walk to your door by itself
😆😆😆
Where does APPLE play in all this? Software and EV's?
The Zoox vehicle looks just like the Volkswagen autonomous vehicle sedric!
I feel like your channel should be called "Hyper Speed Chat"
LOL!!!
Just goofing, you put out great info!
Amazon delivery vans in Charlotte NC have sensors on them and disrupt my WiFi when outside of my home.
Gali, have you heard how, besides autonomous vehicle operation, they plan on removing the driver? Something is gonna have to deliver packages to doorsteps- maybe a partnership w/ Boston Dynamics 🤣
Most likely they will buy self driving Tesla, let it drive and learn from it... LOL
Gali I peep the Micky on your shirt 👕 WondaVision is off to a slow start but I believe its gonna be good. If they could just ditch the legacy cable business they’d be able to compete with Netflix.
Volkswagen seems to go into that direction as well (seems like that is project Trinity which will come to life in next few years). And they can produce 10mio cars/year ...
I am a stockholder in Tesla
In turning their current logistics costs in to a revenue source they have been chipping away at in-housing what fedex and UPS do for them. I think they’re working towards a logistics service that undercuts everyone on delivery costs. And make it available to anyone without tying it to an FBA warehouse
Yes but tell us about FUV....? Just kidding, good episode thx and congrats.
The head of waymo said that FSD fully based on vision will never go fully autonomous
Tesla's strategy: Vertical integration, build a self-enhancing ecosystem of technologies; build the machine that builds the machine.
Amazon's strategy: Buy a bunch of different companies that aren't manufacturing anything, then try to kit-bash them together.
Tesla's strategy makes more sense to me. It's like SpaceX vs. the SLS, but (arguably) worse for Amazon, because at least Boeing, et. al. manufacture things even if their work leaves a lot to be desired. Of course I could be wrong, I'm not the world's second-richest man.
The OBVIOUS business decision for Amazon was to partner with Tesla. The fact that Bezos' fragile ego couldn't allow him to do it might spell the end for him as an economic power imo. He is making business decisions on petty emotion. He's got the cash to burn, and with Amazon's logistics and infrastructure still generating, he may be OK, but if I had Amazon stock I'd be selling it for Tesla and ARKG who I know will make sensible decisions with their money and likely deliver stronger returns.
One thing I can't wrap my head around: with Amazon's delivery service, they would either need to keep a human in there for the last step of delivery, or they'd need a deployable robo-delivery system. Is anyone seeing signs of that being developed?
If the delivery vehicles are autonomous, who (or what) will do the delivery to the customer door?
These lines of speculation seem reasonable.
Your comment about Rivian being too expensive for Jeff to buy now (overpriced) and that he may be sitting back waiting to see who will get on the street first makes a lot of sense. Rivian has a lot to prove and while they were in stealth mode for 9 years... it's not been impressive since the reveal. Once Jeff put in that order for the delivery van, I felt like he was low key the person/company they were now working to please. If I was a reservation holder I would ask for a refund and wait for their showrooms to open if I was still interested in them since I think the Cybertruck is going to come out way before their R1T.
This race is going to be to data heavy, not the swift and Tesla has the lead and now the money. Jeff has lots of money, needs the data and the vehicles. Second place in this race is still a win, but I think it's going to be Jeff that beats the other makers after Tesla show the industry how it is done.
the zoox auto looks like the one in the WestWorld tv show
That is what my wife said when she saw the episode with Delores and Caleb get into the autonomous mini bus.
If Robotaxi is going to be really huge, it must be cheap cars. Amazon probably will go for a race to the bottom to shave or cost. The transition from ICE to sustainable will not be won by EV, but by Robotaxi. This is a huge opportunity for both Tesla and Amazon.
Amazon targeting robotaxi/robodelivery makes a lot of sense
Questions remains: who will manufacture these vehicule in volumes?
Rivian ,Zoox, etc. have not produced a single vehicule yet
Who is able technically and financiallly to ramp up production in high volume and fast without being stranded by battery supply?
I only see legacy OEMs (VW?) have the capability but doubt Amazon getting along with them
Any thought?
How do you feel about Cruise, they look pretty good on autonomous tech as well. Waymo seems to not have been improving as fast from an external point of view.
What do you think of Canoo?
Curious as to how much synergy SpaceX and Blue Origin satellites will have with Tesla and Amazon's full self-driving, in terms of possibly data protection, as I have seen your fantastic videos on SpaceX, but never a breakdown of the synergy between the space companies and the car companies. As I have heard that Level 5 will not require an internet connection. Would be great to get your insight.
100%
I wish Amazon did a stock split so I could afford it...
Buy fractional shares
@@johngagnet1287 I know... but I mean...
There are other companies collecting data... What about Mobileye? They have like 60m ars with their chips...
I'm skeptical that public transportation is a gold mine. I did the math and Waymo is offering their robotaxi service at less than half the cost. Unfortunately for investors, Amazon only wants to control everything that Elon or anyone else dreams up. It works for established products, but I'm very skeptical about just "buying" innovation with cash.
sounds legit, amazon chasing on road data hours
If Amazon, Google, Apple were smarter, they'd collect and share data between all three companies in order to collect the billions of miles of data needed for FSD faster. Tesla's other competitive advantage is its manufacturing superiority: Building the machine to make the machine which speeds up production, reduces parts and processes, and lowers overall costs to increase profit margins. I also think Tesla solar/battery storage will be a monstrous asset for TSLA.
I don't think Amazon has to beat Tesla at all on autonomy to have a massive monopoly of their own. They could sell/lease their tech to other delivery companies. They just have to get good enough in each town to see where to deliver every package. And I see further down the line that they very well could invest in something like Boston dynamics to assist in certain package delivery. Carrying heavy stuff up stairs for example.
I don't think just delivering a package at a location will always work.
And I also see them removing lots of warehouse workers with robots that grab the stuff and move it to the conveyors.
If Amazon uses autonomous delivery trucks... who is going to put the package on the customer’s doorstep ?
How does the Package get delivered
BLACKBERRY! no mention of blackberry?
Do you think any of the Chinese companies might get enough data to do FSD in that same time frame, or do you still expect they're 5 years after Rivian/Amazon and 10 years after Tesla?
The electric vehicle/ battery hype is so real right now! (As it probably should be, but it'll be fun to see who the true winners and losers are in a decade or so).
You can't find this level of thoughtful research on cnbc lol keep it up Gali
Here's my moonshot - Tesla sets up their own delivery service and competes on Amazon's turf