Why is there a Great Silence? Are Gamma Ray Bursts a filter on intelligent life? Also, Do you play World of Warships? John does, use the link in the description and the code READY4BATTLE2020 to join John out on the open sea.
no, there is plenty of life in an infinite universe, but 2 or 3 great filters dictate that the density of technological based life is extremely low, I look forward to the day when AI can model that density, my guess is average
@@theilluminatedone9214 Someone says "parasitic", and you instantly think "Jew"? Yeah, someone should cool it with the anti-Antisemitism. When a prejudice is so integrated into your personality that you're completely unaware that you have it, that's very bad.
Daddy, tell me stories of the old ones: the first peoples of the galaxy. One time they almost died and they were fighting over scraps of paper. Do you mean paper money? No, something called toilet paper. It appears to have been used in some ritual as there is an accompanying shrine in every home we've found.
I listen to this stuff while I sleep, and dream about it. I started making sure too keep track and rewatch while awake. It's nice for review, but it almost acts like a dream journal.
@@honigson8776 that gives me an interesting idea. Maybe I'll line up a playlist with my sleep cycles.... I bet you could start inducing a recurring dream theme, and maybe use that to become lucid. I bet, that if one had their timing down well enough to account for the ads, watched the same playlist while awake, and trained to use reality checkpoints it'd be easy.
Indeed, we may one day find some biological mat on a planet that uses some Hive mind like computation method to "think" in a way we just don't see on this planet, among many other posibilities.
Is that what he said? I got the gist, that complex isn't synonymous with superior, but didn't take notice of the exact wording. However, if he said that complex isn't synonymous with progressive, he's actually wrong. Evolution is a process, and all processes have progression; diseases, decomposition, star formation, Cosmic expansion, life spans, etc.. It's not towards a set purpose, or from inferior to superior, but it's progression nonetheless. In evolution, all complexity is developed from simplicity. Simplicity could, theoretically, develop from complexity, but it never seems to. When new simplicity arises, it does so from old simplicity. Complexity starts with single cell life and ends up with blue whales, not the other way around. As evolution progresses, it produces complexity, and all complexity is a result of evolutionary progression. As the end result of evolutionary progression, complexity is progressive. It may be progressive in the "wrong" direction, and end up an evolutionary dead end, but it's still a manifestation of the progression of evolution. Sorry about the rant. It just annoys me when people apply the insight that evolution doesn't have a set purpose beyond its actual implications. It means that evolution has no superiority (other than survival), and no higher and lower forms of life. It does *not* mean that evolution doesn't progress, and it does *not* mean that complexity isn't a result of that progress. That is outside the logical and rational implications. It doesn't follow. It's overstating. It's wrong.
@@erikjarandson5458 Evolution isn't a process. Processes are designed to achieve a result, that's why they have a progression towards that result. Evolution is a phenomenon, but not one that is systematic towards a predetermined end goal. Evolution doesn't progress lifeforms, it just changes them. You need a plan in order to say that there's progress being made towards it, and there's no plan.
Great one !!... i always hear space fearing aliens. but what if the leap to built and mentaly do the 10000 year trip . Is not possible or intelligent todo ? Why not conserve the best population on any given planet and strive to do better in the furure w/o leaving ever the planet ? -Always expanding and wanting more is maybe not feaseble ? Grtzz johny geerts
Perhaps the best program I have watched. The back and forth conversation, the subject matter, graphics and research were so finely tuned. I heard so much subject matter and your guest was excellent and so knowledgeable. Thank you, can't say enough good about this show.
There's been some really good videos about the Fermi Paradox. One explanation is that maybe life isn't that rare, but intelligent life is very very rare. It's taken the earth 4 billion years to produce a sentient species. How many "lucky breaks" did it take for it to get there?
'Modern' humans, homo sapiens, (possibly others) were intelligent many thousands of years ago, physics/chemistry etc was the same then as now. Why didn't they invent all the things we have now, then? What are the fundamental and/or combination of 'lucky breaks' that we had that they didn't? Would the same pertain to 'aliens'? It's obviously NOT just 'intelligence'. Nomadic, agrarian, technology has it's part; or just like dinosaurs ruled virtually unchanging for millions of years (because they had painted themselves into niches). Maybe the jump/combination also needs a periodic kick in the pants to make it all come together. If that's the case the kick needs to be well timed and just hard enough; too mild = no wake-up, too hard = too harsh a reset, too infrequent = 'dinosaur/stagnation', too often = too disruptive. So what/when are the sweet-spot/combination and how narrow the requirements?
Here's a dumb question: We're seeing these stars as they "were", millions of years ago. What if they're teeming with life right now, (on our current time line), and their signatures simply haven't reached us yet? We've only been able to even detect exoplanets fairly recently. I'm sure that question is full of holes, but it just popped into my head. Fortunately, I'm a meteorologist and not a cosmologist, because I clearly have no idea what I'm talking about. On a positive note, this episode is excellent. Well, they all are. Thank you JMG!
Montgomery Burns - I think the problem is the inadequacy of our means of detection (think of trying to find a bacteria with a magnifying glass or a virus with a regular light microscope) & how little we’ve actually searched (we’ve sampled
Cool question. I heard the Milky Way is 100,000 light years across so would only be that far in the past at most. Our Earth has had life for billions of years. Maybe there will be a time when we can see all planets in Milky Way. We’ll see which planets have life and how far along technologically using our Earth as reference. And why are you making it always rain on the weekends?
Your question is right on point. Any civilization that is far enough away will be invisible to us for quite some time. Life may arise, develop and vanish on the other side of the galaxy before the light ever reaches us. We would be observing their past.
Lets get to Mars, then we can talk about how "easy" it would be to be "space-faring." I don't think we have the slightest clue when we haven't even gone past the moon yet.
Matt Fisher - I’d say have colonies on the moon, Mars & a moon of Jupiter & a couple of O’Neal Cylinders &/or asteroid mining in the Asteroid Belt, & then we can talk about being “space faring”.
Absolutely love these discussions!! It's hard to find long, engaging, and intelligent science based conversations on a lot of these topics. I absolutely relish absorbing these episodes! These episodes are great whether I'm flying through the black in Elite: Dangerous, or needing stimulation/inspiration for the fiction I recreationally create♥️🌠✨🚀♥️✨⭐♥️
After a million years the various human species spreading across the galaxy will be more different than the aliens in Star Trek. I would not be surprised if Greys are a vision of our future.
Awesome!! Some small bit of sanity in these insane times. Thanks John. I hope you and yours are staying safe. Since I'm self quarantining I've been binge watching all your old videos.👍👍👍
Thanks Sinister! I have a sneaking suspicion that it moved through here early this month and that I had a mild case. I'm fine now, but avoiding others so not to spread. But, that just allows me more time to release videos. Gonna shoot out a video on the other channel later today hopefully.
@@JohnMichaelGodier I'm glad your all safe and well. I look forward to your video coming out to day. I hope you can get it out. I'm Canadian and here in Canada we are doing alot better than you guys are in the states. Stay safe my friend.
Here's the answer to the Fermi Paradox - 1 It's early yet in our search for ET civilizations. We may well detect some yet with new instruments. 2 Kardashev is meaningless. Technology becomes refined as it develops away from heavy engineering. Clunky, heavy expressions of technology like Dyson spheres etc. is just not what will happen. 3 Profound understandings of physics and information will enable our descendants to transcend this physical universe. Our future will be much more profound than the frankly hokey speculations that are still mired in a techno-sociological and political framework of the past few centuries.
Vince, did you just say that humanity is bacteria on a bug's ass, squished on the windshield of a '49 desoto heading to the drive in to watch invasion of the body snatchers ?
People are always talking about how old the universe is, or how old the Milky Way is (~13 billion years old). But compared to how long we expect the universe to be capable of supporting life as we know it, (> trillions of years) it seems that the universe is really quite young, like calling a 6 hour old baby "old". The amount of time the universe will be able to support life is thousands of times longer than the time since it was able to support life. We have just one example of the evolution of life to intelligent beings (being capable of understanding what we understand about the universe). that the amount of time this has taken us is about average, but what if it is super fast, way faster than average? After all, in any statistical distribution, you will have outliers. Things that are well outside of what is average.
That is all true, yet the statistical likely hood we are still the first is highly unlikely, its much more likely we are the second, or among the first few. Like this guy said that would leave the possibility their are others and simply the evidence of their presence has not had time to reach us yet. I really like this solution to the Fermi Paradox. We will all stumble upon each other soon and similar tech levels, VERY StarTrek and StarWars..
How do you know how long the universe will be able to support life? We aren't even close to understanding the universe, something could happen at any moment that we aren't aware of that could change everything we think we know.
Pause... NO scientist knows how long the Universe will sustain life. I’ve read a loot of guesses and all of them say.. not long. (In terms of the lifespan of the universe itself). DEF not trillions lmao man.
@@shelbynihiser9345 You say, "not long" In terms of the lifespan of the universe itself. It's possible the universe could exist forever. But even if you consider the universe existing only so long as energy transfer is still possible (before the heat death of the universe) it will still exist for many many years. Perhaps as long as a googal (10^100) years. Not sure how you conclude it is DEF *NOT* trillions of years. I have seen several videos (and read in several books) that life could be supported by brown dwarfs for trillions of years ruclips.net/video/4zKVx29_A1w/видео.html And here is one talking about black holes supporting life for 10^94 years. Much *MUCH* longer than trillions of years. ruclips.net/video/jDF-N3A60DE/видео.html
Intelligent life take a look at Earth 2020, see's everyone watching videos on how to wash their hands, decides to give us a few more centuries before saying Hi.
It’s the Ordovician extinction, not the Permian, that some have suggested was caused by a gamma ray burst. The idea was promulgated 10 years ago by astrophysicist Brian Thomas at Washburn University
Jeffrey Schweitzer - I hadn’t heard that, so I looked it up - www.nature.com/articles/news030922-7 www.livescience.com/49040-gamma-ray-burst-mass-extinction.html
I've always liked the early start theory. But just like any decent 4X game, We'll need to expand quickly. I don't think we're the type to go for a cultural victory...we'll go science or military. If we delay though...not good.
The thought that scares me is that a super AI could be so out of our imagination that every civilization that creates one is completely consumed by it and as a way to perpetuate its own existence it is SUPER stealthy and overall, smart at playing the game, always looking for a 100% winrate strategy...
We only just started finding interstellar objects in our solar system, so you never know, there might be alien probes all around us but our technology just isn't there to detect them. Just my opinion.
Well, that is true, they could have very advanced tech that renders them nearly invisible, not just in the visible spectrum either, but in a lot of other spectrums!
What about the tic tac object? It has video n the eyewitness was a navy fighter pilot. If its ours then our armed forces has tech that is beyond anything we can imagine.
Hey john, I was wondering why is there even a such thing as the Fermi paradox when we can’t even clearly see planets outside our solar system let alone space ships flying through the galaxy so why would would we think we’d know if life was out there without it coming to us ? It’s too early in our technological progress to say yet! Is there something I’m missing ? Because last I checked we hardly know how Proxima Centauri looks let alone a star system far beyond our closest star neighbor. There could be tons of spaceships & armadas flying through our galaxy & we really would have no way of knowing. We haven’t been watching stars long enough to know if it’s being used for energy yet so I’m lost on this whole subject bro.
I think the biggest reason the Galaxy probably isn't fully colonized is because a species that is expansionist enough to even think of doing that is one that's going to kill itself off before it has a chance. It may not be completely impossible but I think it's a pretty good candidate for a great filter.
We can't even live long enough to travel to the nearest star outside our solar system, much less to one in another galaxy, so I feel no "responsibility" towards non-living matter at massive distances from me. Since it appears there is no other life "out there" that knowledge should make us value THIS terrestrial life more than ever. This place called Earth becomes more, astonishingly wondrous with each passing day, there's nothing, for all intents and purposes, more beautiful anywhere in all existence.
The problems with those "solutions" is that is like if we are assuming all possible civilizations are exactly the same and share the same fate. I mean, so GRB exterminated All civilizations? Or ALL civilizations are silent? Or ALL civilizations decided to just observe us as a zoo?? ALL possible civilizations did the same thing?
True. Rare intelligence is my favourite solution. They are out there. But so rare that you have to leave the local group, maybe our galaxy cluster to find the next intelligent species. Of course gamma ray bursts contribute to the rarity of intelligence. Just like all the other filters. From the emergence of multicellular life to the evolution of intelligence itself.
@@Baalur i think it's possible that signs of intelligence, enough to be detectable by anyone outside of a few hundred light years range, is definitely very rare. there could be hundreds of human like civilisations in the galaxy, but their respective radio signals havent even reached us and likely never will.
Some years ago Bakker, the dinosaur hunter, said that any paleontologist who wanted to venture an opinion on mass extinctions should be required to work as a zoo attendant for a year, feeding, watering and caring for so many species in proximity to each other before making any definitive statements. Or, paraphrasing Douglas Adams, maybe the Great Filter is a lack of telephone cleaners in a civilization. The past few months have certainly demonstrated zoonotic diseases are a major threat to technological but dumb societies who think that cell phones with folding screens demonstrate cleverness. Or, the occasional GRB might trigger a burst of evolution that results in intelligence by pruning successful species back and rewarding the critters on the periphery of the biome.
The "phase transition" notion is highly compelling. It would really explain a lot. It's almost like the universe was "designed" to not allow life until it was ready (several generations of star formation has occured and enough metal has been created).
Great Show John. Reminds me of the Science shows I used to watch back in the early 80s. And it won't surprise me if you get picked up by a network. Just don't forget your online crowd when you do.
Oh don't worry. I really love what I do online. It's my roots and they'd have to drag me off kicking and screaming to get me to stop regardless of what happens :) And then I'd post a video of the dragging, kicking and screaming.
Galaxies being too violent to allow for life to evolve in the early universe was a Fermi Paradox solution in The Starmaker by Olaf Stapledon. It was written 30 years before Fermi came up with the Paradox. The book also has Dyson Sphere's in it and is cited by Dyson in his paper on Dyson Sphere's. Sooooo good.
I'm the host, and I'll discuss it. Why is it that for the last 70 years everyone has been running around saying that the US government is lying about aliens, Roswell, Area 51 and covering everything up. And then when the government releases UFO footage .... everyone suddenly believes its real? This I do not understand. The governments of the world (all 195 of them) are either lying, or they are not.
@@JohnMichaelGodier Please Mr Goldier have a look here when you have some spare time ruclips.net/channel/UC6i-se5IU8hRbPov5-ON1twvideos i believe this case alone is worth of your attention
When we look at the Galaxy we can't see intelligent civilisations because of the insane distances. We can't even directly image Pluto, or the planets orbiting our closest star.
"Maybe we'll be the older siblings solving the galaxies problems" Oh boy isn't THAT knee slapper! I'm sure we'll be the ones CREATING the galaxies problems!
We are the Chosen Ones Born of the Divine Shaped in the image of the great Masters We are warriors, wisemen, fathers, Masters And this Is the time of our Ordeal "The Great Silence" When we will prove ourselves worthy to join the immortal Gods And hear their voices once again.
One of the weaker solutions to a paradox that doesn’t even really exist “How come we haven’t found anybody in the infinitesimally short period of time we’ve “searched”? Oh, and by “search” we mean we’ve hardly looked at all, and that by primarily just listening for nearby signals of a technology that we ourselves have already begun to stop using.” It’s been barely a human lifetime that we’ve broadcast radio strongly enough that it might be detected (in the far future) by even a nearby alien SETI, and we’re going radio-dim already. It doesn’t demand an explanation that we haven’t detected alien television broadcasts of alien I Love Lucy. Still less does it require such an extreme explanation as “this phenomenon we’ve only just begun to understand has actually been sanitizing the entire universe of life... oh, but it stopped just in time for us”. We listened for twentieth century human technology that’s already old-timey to ourselves today. We looked for canals on planets back when that was the height of human technology, and when those turned out not to be on Mars, we largely stopped looking for life there for decades. Let’s not be so small-minded again, I think.
True, they could've left all sorts of trinkets for us to find, as a sort of gimmick to get us to spread our wings, in a sense. However whether or not we do is entirely up to us.
Why do we assume that so-called intelligent life needs a longer time to show up on a planet or on a moon? We are using earth as a benchmark which might be wrong. Also, our assumption of radiation kills life but what if an evolution process worked its way into some form of life.
So all you have said is: a thing might do a thing to thing?s You might want to refer to this link for more statements such as yours: sebpearce.com/bullshit/
How about the Fermi bubbles recently detected? An active galactic core would do quite a number on the majority of life in any plausible exoecosystem including our own. Perhaps the place to look might be small satellite galaxies like the Magellanic's. I would also think that orphan systems in intergalactic space may be exempted from sterilization by central super massive black holes activity unless they are in a direct line of fire for a quasar jet.
I saw another you tube vid about this, explaining how the probabilities of abiogenisis would ultimately determine the likelihood of life elsewhere, and also how either life is most likely EITHER very abundant OR it is unique, and based on the abscence of evidence of other life then we are likely unique.
Gamma ray bursts lack "coverage", their cone reaches far but is narrow. Even in greater number they'd be limiter of the total number of highly evolved life instances, not eraser of all. Another topic touched up: marine intelligent life if advanced enough and biologically endowed (octopus and similar body plans...?) and culturally prone could easily develop technology, not every technological path starts with the wheel and fire, that is us-centric (think of how would advanced intelligent marine life perceive their resources like volcanic vents,...). I am still "dark forrest" and "life present and evolving wherever it can get foothold" fan. Those paths emerge from very simple and very basic and universal principles. Finally, yes entropy arrow is the fundamental, it must rise... but, read on the details, if entropy could rise to the same level with little and a lot of complexity fundamental laws demand it reaches that point in the most complex way possible (In a way, that would mean that the answer to the Universe and everything is not 42 but for the most advanced intelligence and technology to emerge, advance, spread through the whole Universe and than destroy it).
Please keep this amazing content going in these troubled times .. Really need this in my life about now .. Stay Safe John as I need you lol ... Peace from Bristol England
I've been saying something similar since the 1970s when I learned how the big bang and nuclear fusion worked. Maybe the universe has just now "cooked" long enough to be safe for life. Not just fewer GRBs but lower radiation in general and the right ratios of heavy elements for life. Someone has to be the "first ones", maybe it is us.
I have a serious question. Something I really don't understand from all the futurist and science RUclipsrs and Authors and etc. How would you tell there is a Space faring civilization? Everyone always says you would see Dyson Swarms but why? We are learning with us, that the more technologically advanced we are, things get smaller, not larger. We are getting closer and closer to fusion energy. I don't think an advanced civilization would need to encapsulate a full star much less an entire galaxy. There maybe a few civilizations that do decide to do it and we have found in our small closer neighborhood of stars there are some stars that might fit the beginning construction of a Dyson swarm but are much more likely natural reasons to explain the weird dipping.
That's assuming we have even the slightest idea of what the energy requirements for an advanced civilization and their projects might be. Who knows, maybe they have Alcubierre drives to get around, but they need to harvest stars to continue to travel around their galaxy. Maybe they can move planets into new orbits, or power continent sized spaceships with solar sails, etc. You wouldn't build a giant fusion reactor to do these kinds of things; a star is already a fusion reactor, exponentially more powerful, and already there.
All of our technology still requires energy to work. Unless someone discovers a completely different means of accomplishing work (maybe possible, but in violation of our understanding of physics), they would eventually need vast amounts of energy. Fusion reactors make a lot of energy by our standards, but a star is a fusion reactor with many times the output of anything we've conceived of building.
I say it's solved by a combination of: - Earth being an exceedingly rare combination of fortunate developments and subsequent characteristics for us to evolve and thrive here (every single mass extinction event and major climate fluctuation played a major part in giving rise to us; we wouldn't be here if the right size of asteroid hadn't struck the earth at the right angle and time to wipe out most of the dinosaurs, for instance) - The characteristics of other planets possibly making stargazing and space travel more difficult if not impossible to alien life living on it (one wonders if we even would have had civilization yet without the ability to observe the apparent motions of the sun, moon, stars and planets, since we needed these in order to have a calendar and subsequently have the capability to predict the seasons, in turn allowing for agriculture) - The vast times and distances involved not permitting us to see signs of any contemporary alien civilizations, whether it's due to their emissions being too weak to be detected or all signs of them simply not having reached us yet; we see Andromeda as it was 2.5 million years ago, and other stars in our galaxy generally range from hundreds to hundreds of thousands of lightyears in distance from us. Thus, the chances are against there being another civilization comparable to our own anywhere near our vicinity due to the rarity of our planet and the kind of life it has produced. Chances improve as we move farther out to include more of the galaxy and the other galaxies, but then distance and timescales become insurmountable. If we had beaten these tall odds and had an advanced civilization in our galactic neighborhood, then we might have detected it by now. As it is, such civilizations are most likely just too distant for us to detect at this time.
Maybe the Aliens have a very "naturalistic" aesthetic? The creations of most animals on earth look fairly natural to us...like termite mounds and wasp's nests and coral, etc.
This doesn't make sense. I am not aware of any claims that other galaxies we view are intense for GRBs and every one of them are viewed at least millions of years ago. Which galaxies viewed are heavy on GRBs?
I've read somewhere between the comments that it appears that the universe itself doesn't will us, or anything, to live. We are a product of the universe so, rather, the apparent falt lies within us: we refused to take further steps ahead and take a place among the stars. We remained here, in a single "speck of dust suspended in a ray of sunlight", where anything, anytime can easily wipe out all of us. Then what would have all our speculations led us to? What would have they even been for? All our accomplishments, wars and virtual economy... all these mean nothing if we don't bring them further. We refuse to make anti-extinction plans and contingencies because they will not give us any immediate economic return, yet we have seen multiple times in history how easily even something as mundane as a disease could potentially wipe all of us out of existence. We knowlingly made earth increasingly more inhospitable for life for the last six decades. Is this the behaviour of a true intelligent life form?
When I was a college student in the late '60's, one of my professors told of an experiment set up to record rays coming in from space. He said that at one point the gamma rays came in so thick, everyone in the lab was scared, then it stopped as suddenly as it started. He said if it had continued for ten minutes, all surface life would have been sterilized.
Or maybe way the hell under Denver Airport? Really tho, the power out there could disintegrate a planet this size seemingly very easily. So, negates anywhere
The end-Permian extinction killed off ocean life preferentially, over 90%, it "only" killed 70% of terrestrial life. Basically the opposite of what you would expect from a gamma ray burst.
@@Baalur All forms of consciousness (even being unconscious with neural action) has to be what might be called intelligence. Can we deny the problem solving actions of bacteria changing their behavior based on certain chemical gradients.Any life system can only model abstract representations. The map can't be the territory. Consider the contradictions and tautologies even in this high level source: www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/intelligence.
Upon hearing his neighbours argument he became unable to comprehend or relate to such a happening; he couldn't bring himself to make sense of his ears. Only he wasn't the one ment to hear it.
Need to ask ourselves: why should we ever hear anybody? The humanity's radio wave output is indistinguishable from thermal noise at a distance closer than Proxima Centauri. Transmission of just a single bit of information to or from Proxima Centauri requires in order of a mega Joule of energy, depending on antenna sizes and the receiver temperature.
I thought the problem with favoring sentience in water is that there’s not as much evolutionary pressure to evolve intelligence? The conditions are more forgiving down there. It’s a comparatively easy life. Creatures become specialized for their aquatic niche and then do not evolve much for tens of millions of years.
The Mechanics Of Time are easy to understand. The higher the energy level you are exposed the slower time flows...even stops. So perhaps we are measuring the Age of the Universe based on how we are experiencing the flow of time now. So if time was flowing slower based upon higher energy levels in the past the Universe could be very young. Young enough to say we are the first ones to have reached this level of intelligence.
Fantastic interview, JMG! Thanks a lot! 😃 Philosophically speaking, if we ever saw anything engineered out there... Would we be able to recognize it as such? That's a question that has hunted me for years. And I really don't know the answer. Because we don't have the technology or the means to do such a thing, so we have no idea of how it would look like. That's the biggest problem. For example, with radio waves we would only be able to find civilizations like ours, that are in the same point of the technology development. Because radio waves aren't exactly a fast way to communicate in long distances... So... Who knows what we still don't know.
Dyson spheres use fusion. The fusion inside a star. It is a vast and relatively long lasting source of unimagineable amounts of energy. It is just sensible to use it. Fusion-reactors might not be viable as a source of energy after all. But when it is possible (and it looks like it is) it would just mean that you can build your Dyson Swarm even faster.
What are the odds of being born this early "into the game"? Aren't the odds of being born before the last star dies out around 1/trillion or possibly much less? And if you were born during a time when stars did still exist it would be around 0.01%? Probably more likely we are simulating life in the early stages of a universe.
What he said about letting our presence known has terrified me for decades. Whales send signals across long distances because they have no real constant predators as where the tiny shrimp or other smaller creatures stay relatively quiet because of their position in the food chain. We should keep that in mind as a small scale model. If you were dropped on an unknown tropical island, you'd want to observe and keep quiet first to see where you stand in the food chain before letting your presence be known. That obviously should stand as well when applied to our known universe. Why be the one noisy bug amongst so many quiet ones...
The galaxy? Maybe. But jumping from galaxy to universe like that shows that you have no sense of scale. We do not know how big the universe is but let"s say you mean just the observable universe. There could be a billion civilizations in it and that would still mean less than one percent of galaxies contain one. Even if life could only evolve on a planet similar to earth there should be thousands in the observable universe. Is the rare earth hypothesis a possible solution to the Fermi paradox? Yes. Does it mean we are alone in the universe? Most likely no.
Given that we don’t even know how, and therefore when, life emerged on this planet and thereby making assumptions about the ubiquity of life in the galaxy seems little more than a science version of fan fiction.
We don't know how, exactly, but we do know how potentially. Thanks to the Yuri-Miller experiments and many advancements after we do understand how we can go from chemistry, to self replication, to proliferation, to diversification via replication mistakes, to basic life, and every step from there. We simply don't know which method, if any of the ones we've discovered, actually happened on earth. We also don't know when, exactly, but we know life has been on earth for a *LOOOONG* time. So put these 2 together and you end up with the conclusion that life should be ubiquitous. However, it is worth noting that earth had a long phase of only hosting single celled organisms for billions of years, this might be evidence of one the suppression mechanisms discussed in the video?
I don't think we're the only intelligent life, but our uprising to sentience is sketchy to say the least, especially with the whole "god made us" claims... makes you wonder if it was something else than a god.
The sci fi novel, The Silent Stars explores with this topic. Habitable planets moving in and out of Galactic habital zones. Cosmic events like super novas and magnetar quakes wiping out starfaring civilizations.
Great episode it truly is a mystery. I find it hard to believe we are the only intelligent life in the galaxy. All of you stay safe and healthy. Thanks for the episode.
we could use armadas of cube sats with ion drives/electric sails to explore/map the astroid belt and other parts of the solar system while keeping an eye out for space junk.
Although I don't know enough about gamma ray bursts to say anything about how they could effect life in the long term, but it does seem probable at this point of our conjecture that we might be one of the first intelligent civilizations, a significantly older more advanced civilization would be relatively easy to detect if it develops in a fashion remotely similar to how we think such a civilization would progress and our civilization is just barely reaching the point that we might be able to detect an equivalent of it in a nearby world.
Why is there a Great Silence?
Are Gamma Ray Bursts a filter on intelligent life?
Also, Do you play World of Warships? John does, use the link in the description and the code READY4BATTLE2020 to join John out on the open sea.
no, there is plenty of life in an infinite universe, but 2 or 3 great filters dictate that the density of technological based life is extremely low, I look forward to the day when AI can model that density, my guess is average
I’m gonna guess they’ll wait until Trump is out of office before they consider contacting us.
Because we’ve barely looked.
Batt Mann Im almost Fermied out
me hee Thats an anthropic principle anecdote not a Great Filter response
Maybe aliens, like us, have parasitic rulers that steal all their money and spend it on the wrong things, making space travel impossible.
RockawayCCW - Not so much parasitic as corrupt, shortsighted & stupid.
100% correct!
@@theilluminatedone9214 Someone says "parasitic", and you instantly think "Jew"? Yeah, someone should cool it with the anti-Antisemitism. When a prejudice is so integrated into your personality that you're completely unaware that you have it, that's very bad.
Lmao
What an original & useful thought. Groundbreaking!
I’m surprised I’m still alive considering the amount of times I’ve fallen into Event Horizon with John Michael Godier
HAHAHAHAHA 🤣 🤣 🤣
Islam is the solution to everything including Fermi paradox.
Yeah, me too. I've been spaghettified many many times crossing the Event Horizon 😬😉👍
Daddy, tell me stories of the old ones: the first peoples of the galaxy.
One time they almost died and they were fighting over scraps of paper.
Do you mean paper money?
No, something called toilet paper. It appears to have been used in some ritual as there is an accompanying shrine in every home we've found.
We only have 9 years to figure out the 3 seashells... I'm guessing a scraping motion?
I admit it, I snickered.
This is the perfect time to invest in bidets.
On each of those urns in the religious room was a paper band that had a quote from their god, "sanitized for your protection."
@@macgyveratlarge2133 and apparently some sects took comfort that someone named jeff goldblum was watching over them
Perfect bedtime listening😴🌙💙
I listen to this stuff while I sleep, and dream about it. I started making sure too keep track and rewatch while awake. It's nice for review, but it almost acts like a dream journal.
@@nickciggs3968 i often dream totally different things hearing this than for example a wildlife documentary , makes fun to chose :D
@@honigson8776 that gives me an interesting idea. Maybe I'll line up a playlist with my sleep cycles.... I bet you could start inducing a recurring dream theme, and maybe use that to become lucid.
I bet, that if one had their timing down well enough to account for the ads, watched the same playlist while awake, and trained to use reality checkpoints it'd be easy.
@@teiam7781 it's a shame he doesn't upload more I've listened to how far away is it 3-10 millions of times
My thoughts exactly
I'm glad he pointed out more complex is not synonymous with progressive. Simplicity itself is efficiency.
Indeed, we may one day find some biological mat on a planet that uses some Hive mind like computation method to "think" in a way we just don't see on this planet, among many other posibilities.
Is that what he said? I got the gist, that complex isn't synonymous with superior, but didn't take notice of the exact wording. However, if he said that complex isn't synonymous with progressive, he's actually wrong.
Evolution is a process, and all processes have progression; diseases, decomposition, star formation, Cosmic expansion, life spans, etc.. It's not towards a set purpose, or from inferior to superior, but it's progression nonetheless. In evolution, all complexity is developed from simplicity. Simplicity could, theoretically, develop from complexity, but it never seems to. When new simplicity arises, it does so from old simplicity. Complexity starts with single cell life and ends up with blue whales, not the other way around. As evolution progresses, it produces complexity, and all complexity is a result of evolutionary progression. As the end result of evolutionary progression, complexity is progressive. It may be progressive in the "wrong" direction, and end up an evolutionary dead end, but it's still a manifestation of the progression of evolution.
Sorry about the rant. It just annoys me when people apply the insight that evolution doesn't have a set purpose beyond its actual implications. It means that evolution has no superiority (other than survival), and no higher and lower forms of life. It does *not* mean that evolution doesn't progress, and it does *not* mean that complexity isn't a result of that progress. That is outside the logical and rational implications. It doesn't follow. It's overstating. It's wrong.
@@erikjarandson5458 Evolution isn't a process. Processes are designed to achieve a result, that's why they have a progression towards that result. Evolution is a phenomenon, but not one that is systematic towards a predetermined end goal. Evolution doesn't progress lifeforms, it just changes them. You need a plan in order to say that there's progress being made towards it, and there's no plan.
Great one !!...
i always hear space fearing aliens.
but what if the leap to built and mentaly do the 10000 year trip .
Is not possible or intelligent todo ?
Why not conserve the best population on any given planet and strive to do better in the furure w/o leaving ever the planet ?
-Always expanding and wanting more is maybe not feaseble ?
Grtzz johny geerts
@@erikjarandson5458 - excellent points that, like untethered balloons, sail right over the heads of most, sadly!
Perhaps the best program I have watched. The back and forth conversation, the subject matter, graphics and research were so finely tuned. I heard so much subject matter and your guest was excellent and so knowledgeable. Thank you, can't say enough good about this show.
There's been some really good videos about the Fermi Paradox. One explanation is that maybe life isn't that rare, but intelligent life is very very rare. It's taken the earth 4 billion years to produce a sentient species. How many "lucky breaks" did it take for it to get there?
'Modern' humans, homo sapiens, (possibly others) were intelligent many thousands of years ago, physics/chemistry etc was the same then as now. Why didn't they invent all the things we have now, then? What are the fundamental and/or combination of 'lucky breaks' that we had that they didn't?
Would the same pertain to 'aliens'? It's obviously NOT just 'intelligence'. Nomadic, agrarian, technology has it's part; or just like dinosaurs ruled virtually unchanging for millions of years (because they had painted themselves into niches). Maybe the jump/combination also needs a periodic kick in the pants to make it all come together. If that's the case the kick needs to be well timed and just hard enough; too mild = no wake-up, too hard = too harsh a reset, too infrequent = 'dinosaur/stagnation', too often = too disruptive. So what/when are the sweet-spot/combination and how narrow the requirements?
Here's a dumb question: We're seeing these stars as they "were", millions of years ago. What if they're teeming with life right now, (on our current time line), and their signatures simply haven't reached us yet? We've only been able to even detect exoplanets fairly recently. I'm sure that question is full of holes, but it just popped into my head. Fortunately, I'm a meteorologist and not a cosmologist, because I clearly have no idea what I'm talking about. On a positive note, this episode is excellent. Well, they all are. Thank you JMG!
Montgomery Burns - I think the problem is the inadequacy of our means of detection (think of trying to find a bacteria with a magnifying glass or a virus with a regular light microscope) & how little we’ve actually searched (we’ve sampled
Great point. I think that the vastness of time further complicates the vast distances of space.
Cool question. I heard the Milky Way is 100,000 light years across so would only be that far in the past at most. Our Earth has had life for billions of years. Maybe there will be a time when we can see all planets in Milky Way. We’ll see which planets have life and how far along technologically using our Earth as reference. And why are you making it always rain on the weekends?
Your question is right on point. Any civilization that is far enough away will be invisible to us for quite some time. Life may arise, develop and vanish on the other side of the galaxy before the light ever reaches us. We would be observing their past.
@@TraditionalAnglican Good point! Thank you!
Lets get to Mars, then we can talk about how "easy" it would be to be "space-faring." I don't think we have the slightest clue when we haven't even gone past the moon yet.
Exactly.
Matt Fisher - I’d say have colonies on the moon, Mars & a moon of Jupiter & a couple of O’Neal Cylinders &/or asteroid mining in the Asteroid Belt, & then we can talk about being “space faring”.
We haven't even tested using spin gravity in LEO yet. There isn't even a timeline to test it even.
And we don't have a closed food production cycle yet without opening the windows and let in fresh air.
@Ummer Farooq huh?? 🤔🤣
This guy is great. Surprised I haven’t heard of him. He needs to come back!
He was struck by a gamma ray burst.
@@valer48 Banner??
Absolutely love these discussions!! It's hard to find long, engaging, and intelligent science based conversations on a lot of these topics. I absolutely relish absorbing these episodes! These episodes are great whether I'm flying through the black in Elite: Dangerous, or needing stimulation/inspiration for the fiction I recreationally create♥️🌠✨🚀♥️✨⭐♥️
Wouldn’t be surprised that we’d end up as greys. I’m starting to get grey already
After a million years the various human species spreading across the galaxy will be more different than the aliens in Star Trek. I would not be surprised if Greys are a vision of our future.
Stop ingesting silver chloride.
@Richard B Yeah, because they look just like humans, I'm not even sure what a grey looks like, where have you seen one?
just remember whatever the cosmic experts say, the reality will always be infinitely more spectacular and wild than they can ever predict
Awesome!! Some small bit of sanity in these insane times. Thanks John. I hope you and yours are staying safe. Since I'm self quarantining I've been binge watching all your old videos.👍👍👍
Great idea and thank you, we hope everyone is well.
Thanks Sinister! I have a sneaking suspicion that it moved through here early this month and that I had a mild case. I'm fine now, but avoiding others so not to spread. But, that just allows me more time to release videos. Gonna shoot out a video on the other channel later today hopefully.
@@JohnMichaelGodier I'm glad your all safe and well. I look forward to your video coming out to day. I hope you can get it out. I'm Canadian and here in Canada we are doing alot better than you guys are in the states. Stay safe my friend.
Here's the answer to the Fermi Paradox -
1 It's early yet in our search for ET civilizations. We may well detect some yet with new instruments.
2 Kardashev is meaningless. Technology becomes refined as it develops away from heavy engineering. Clunky, heavy expressions of technology like Dyson spheres etc. is just not what will happen.
3 Profound understandings of physics and information will enable our descendants to transcend this physical universe. Our future will be much more profound than the frankly hokey speculations that are still mired in a techno-sociological and political framework of the past few centuries.
Silly
Vince, did you just say that humanity is bacteria on a bug's ass, squished on the windshield of a '49 desoto heading to the drive in to watch invasion of the body snatchers ?
I love these Fermi Paradox themed videos, great stuff as always John!
Thanks Salad. Beware of glass brother!
Did you find your rusty spoons?
People are always talking about how old the universe is, or how old the Milky Way is (~13 billion years old). But compared to how long we expect the universe to be capable of supporting life as we know it, (> trillions of years) it seems that the universe is really quite young, like calling a 6 hour old baby "old".
The amount of time the universe will be able to support life is thousands of times longer than the time since it was able to support life.
We have just one example of the evolution of life to intelligent beings (being capable of understanding what we understand about the universe). that the amount of time this has taken us is about average, but what if it is super fast, way faster than average?
After all, in any statistical distribution, you will have outliers. Things that are well outside of what is average.
That is all true, yet the statistical likely hood we are still the first is highly unlikely, its much more likely we are the second, or among the first few. Like this guy said that would leave the possibility their are others and simply the evidence of their presence has not had time to reach us yet. I really like this solution to the Fermi Paradox. We will all stumble upon each other soon and similar tech levels, VERY StarTrek and StarWars..
How do you know how long the universe will be able to support life? We aren't even close to understanding the universe, something could happen at any moment that we aren't aware of that could change everything we think we know.
Pause... NO scientist knows how long the Universe will sustain life. I’ve read a loot of guesses and all of them say.. not long. (In terms of the lifespan of the universe itself). DEF not trillions lmao man.
@@shelbynihiser9345 You say, "not long" In terms of the lifespan of the universe itself. It's possible the universe could exist forever. But even if you consider the universe existing only so long as energy transfer is still possible (before the heat death of the universe) it will still exist for many many years. Perhaps as long as a googal (10^100) years.
Not sure how you conclude it is DEF *NOT* trillions of years.
I have seen several videos (and read in several books) that life could be supported by brown dwarfs for trillions of years
ruclips.net/video/4zKVx29_A1w/видео.html
And here is one talking about black holes supporting life for 10^94 years. Much *MUCH* longer than trillions of years.
ruclips.net/video/jDF-N3A60DE/видео.html
Intelligent life take a look at Earth 2020, see's everyone watching videos on how to wash their hands, decides to give us a few more centuries before saying Hi.
Aliens see we are addicted to "Soma"... Then walk away, and say "nah"
Or whether masks cover your mouth lol
look at the next smartest species on earth....they can barely hold a hammer. we’ve made incredible progress for animals, never diminish your heritage
But that's actually a smart thing to do during a pandemic
It’s the Ordovician extinction, not the Permian, that some have suggested was caused by a gamma ray burst. The idea was promulgated 10 years ago by astrophysicist Brian Thomas at Washburn University
Jeffrey Schweitzer - I hadn’t heard that, so I looked it up -
www.nature.com/articles/news030922-7
www.livescience.com/49040-gamma-ray-burst-mass-extinction.html
Promulgated lol. Aren't you just so smart, Jeffrey, wow what a genius you are... fucking JEFFREY.
They saw which way round some people put their toilet roll & thought nope. Not worth it.
I've always liked the early start theory.
But just like any decent 4X game, We'll need to expand quickly.
I don't think we're the type to go for a cultural victory...we'll go science or military.
If we delay though...not good.
I figured we'd be the ones to build a dimensional portal and take on the Antarans in their pocket universe.
The thought that scares me is that a super AI could be so out of our imagination that every civilization that creates one is completely consumed by it and as a way to perpetuate its own existence it is SUPER stealthy and overall, smart at playing the game, always looking for a 100% winrate strategy...
@@memb. Just use a false vacuum, destroys EVERYTHING, eventually.
The AI wouldn't be able to stop it, or anything for that matter...
Unfortunately it WOULD, eventually, destroy the whole universe.
Lol naw dude. We're just the makers of the real civ that's going to conquer the galaxy: AI
We only just started finding interstellar objects in our solar system, so you never know, there might be alien probes all around us but our technology just isn't there to detect them. Just my opinion.
Well, that is true, they could have very advanced tech that renders them nearly invisible, not just in the visible spectrum either, but in a lot of other spectrums!
What about the tic tac object? It has video n the eyewitness was a navy fighter pilot. If its ours then our armed forces has tech that is beyond anything we can imagine.
@A Friendly Piplup. Yeah ! And there might be a large china teapot in orbit round Mars (lol). Just saying........
Hey john, I was wondering why is there even a such thing as the Fermi paradox when we can’t even clearly see planets outside our solar system let alone space ships flying through the galaxy so why would would we think we’d know if life was out there without it coming to us ? It’s too early in our technological progress to say yet! Is there something I’m missing ? Because last I checked we hardly know how Proxima Centauri looks let alone a star system far beyond our closest star neighbor. There could be tons of spaceships & armadas flying through our galaxy & we really would have no way of knowing. We haven’t been watching stars long enough to know if it’s being used for energy yet so I’m lost on this whole subject bro.
We would see technological civilizations pretty easily
I think the biggest reason the Galaxy probably isn't fully colonized is because a species that is expansionist enough to even think of doing that is one that's going to kill itself off before it has a chance. It may not be completely impossible but I think it's a pretty good candidate for a great filter.
That leaves us a great responcibility to the universe not just the planet
We can't even live long enough to travel to the nearest star outside our solar system, much less to one in another galaxy, so I feel no "responsibility" towards non-living matter at massive distances from me.
Since it appears there is no other life "out there" that knowledge should make us value THIS terrestrial life more than ever. This place called Earth becomes more, astonishingly wondrous with each passing day, there's nothing, for all intents and purposes, more beautiful anywhere in all existence.
If we can't spell responcibility , how do we decode the nuiverse?
@@rabokarabekian409 Spell check via quantum computing. Screencap this.
Fantastic video John. It's always a joy to see a post from you and Eryn/Anna.
The problems with those "solutions" is that is like if we are assuming all possible civilizations are exactly the same and share the same fate. I mean, so GRB exterminated All civilizations? Or ALL civilizations are silent? Or ALL civilizations decided to just observe us as a zoo?? ALL possible civilizations did the same thing?
If there is one that acts like plants who cares?
True. Rare intelligence is my favourite solution. They are out there. But so rare that you have to leave the local group, maybe our galaxy cluster to find the next intelligent species.
Of course gamma ray bursts contribute to the rarity of intelligence. Just like all the other filters. From the emergence of multicellular life to the evolution of intelligence itself.
@@Baalur i think it's possible that signs of intelligence, enough to be detectable by anyone outside of a few hundred light years range, is definitely very rare. there could be hundreds of human like civilisations in the galaxy, but their respective radio signals havent even reached us and likely never will.
Because we don't see Any we have to find solutions that cover all.. It's not about explaining alien behaviour, it's about explaining what we see
Congrats on 100k I see this channel is growing stay safe guys 🙏❤️
Some years ago Bakker, the dinosaur hunter, said that any paleontologist who wanted to venture an opinion on mass extinctions should be required to work as a zoo attendant for a year, feeding, watering and caring for so many species in proximity to each other before making any definitive statements.
Or, paraphrasing Douglas Adams, maybe the Great Filter is a lack of telephone cleaners in a civilization. The past few months have certainly demonstrated zoonotic diseases are a major threat to technological but dumb societies who think that cell phones with folding screens demonstrate cleverness.
Or, the occasional GRB might trigger a burst of evolution that results in intelligence by pruning successful species back and rewarding the critters on the periphery of the biome.
The "phase transition" notion is highly compelling. It would really explain a lot.
It's almost like the universe was "designed" to not allow life until it was ready (several generations of star formation has occured and enough metal has been created).
Idk, it seems too early still, the universe just a few millienia away.
But who knows.
Great Show John.
Reminds me of the Science shows I used to watch back in the early 80s. And it won't surprise me if you get picked up by a network.
Just don't forget your online crowd when you do.
Oh don't worry. I really love what I do online. It's my roots and they'd have to drag me off kicking and screaming to get me to stop regardless of what happens :)
And then I'd post a video of the dragging, kicking and screaming.
Great content as always. Fair play for taking sponsors and even more fair play for keeping the sponsorship ads short. Cheers John.
Galaxies being too violent to allow for life to evolve in the early universe was a Fermi Paradox solution in The Starmaker by Olaf Stapledon. It was written 30 years before Fermi came up with the Paradox. The book also has Dyson Sphere's in it and is cited by Dyson in his paper on Dyson Sphere's. Sooooo good.
Why people never discuss strange events such as The Nimits Encounter the Tic Tac UFO?
I'm the host, and I'll discuss it. Why is it that for the last 70 years everyone has been running around saying that the US government is lying about aliens, Roswell, Area 51 and covering everything up. And then when the government releases UFO footage .... everyone suddenly believes its real? This I do not understand. The governments of the world (all 195 of them) are either lying, or they are not.
@@JohnMichaelGodier Please Mr Goldier have a look here when you have some spare time ruclips.net/channel/UC6i-se5IU8hRbPov5-ON1twvideos
i believe this case alone is worth of your attention
When we look at the Galaxy we can't see intelligent civilisations because of the insane distances. We can't even directly image Pluto, or the planets orbiting our closest star.
@@politicallycorrectredskin796 He has a valid point, dipshit.
Throw out some more random shit why don't you.
Of all the various ways Lovecraft might have had glimpses of the future, humanity potentially becoming the Elder Beings was not what I had expected.
"Maybe we'll be the older siblings solving the galaxies problems"
Oh boy isn't THAT knee slapper! I'm sure we'll be the ones CREATING the galaxies problems!
We are the Chosen Ones
Born of the Divine
Shaped in the image of the great Masters
We are warriors, wisemen, fathers,
Masters
And this
Is the time of our Ordeal
"The Great Silence"
When we will prove ourselves worthy to join the immortal Gods
And hear their voices once again.
One god remember one god
oh lord...
Yeah n they thought our planet was the center of the universe. We ain't shit in the grand scheme of things.
Excellent video
One of the weaker solutions to a paradox that doesn’t even really exist
“How come we haven’t found anybody in the infinitesimally short period of time we’ve “searched”? Oh, and by “search” we mean we’ve hardly looked at all, and that by primarily just listening for nearby signals of a technology that we ourselves have already begun to stop using.”
It’s been barely a human lifetime that we’ve broadcast radio strongly enough that it might be detected (in the far future) by even a nearby alien SETI, and we’re going radio-dim already.
It doesn’t demand an explanation that we haven’t detected alien television broadcasts of alien I Love Lucy. Still less does it require such an extreme explanation as “this phenomenon we’ve only just begun to understand has actually been sanitizing the entire universe of life... oh, but it stopped just in time for us”.
We listened for twentieth century human technology that’s already old-timey to ourselves today. We looked for canals on planets back when that was the height of human technology, and when those turned out not to be on Mars, we largely stopped looking for life there for decades.
Let’s not be so small-minded again, I think.
Watch "Dyson Dilemma" by Isaac Arthur. The Fermi paradox is real. Not because of the lack of radio signals though. I give you that.
The silence is growing... so must we.
Poetic.
Humanity's interstellar ships will drive the silence before them. Until it is broken.
Why? Your are a fluke of the inverse, and yo have no right to be here.
@@rabokarabekian409 And should we even care? The universe is a ripe fruit, just waiting for someone to take it.
There may be something much rarer and nastier than GRB's, and the first one we see may be the last.
Cosmic Horrors?
@@kingnarothept6917 no, the forces of chaos that inhabit the warp...
We are searching for a ripple on a wave in a vast ocean. The important thing is that we are fortunate enough to be doing just that.
If someone had been here before us, perhaps those mineral rich asteroids were left to entice us outward.
True, they could've left all sorts of trinkets for us to find, as a sort of gimmick to get us to spread our wings, in a sense.
However whether or not we do is entirely up to us.
Why do we assume that so-called intelligent life needs a longer time to show up on a planet or on a moon? We are using earth as a benchmark which might be wrong. Also, our assumption of radiation kills life but what if an evolution process worked its way into some form of life.
So all you have said is: a thing might do a thing to thing?s You might want to refer to this link for more statements such as yours: sebpearce.com/bullshit/
You mean like radiosynthesis?
It's a theoretical process of plants (and I guess animals too), could use it to turn radiation into energy or even food!
The incredibly rare Hoag's Object that is visible through another Hoag's Object......that is.......odd
An easter-egg the developers put there.
The smaller ring galaxy is a more common type of galaxy than the hoag's object
It's a Hoag House
How about the Fermi bubbles recently detected? An active galactic core would do quite a number on the majority of life in any plausible exoecosystem including our own. Perhaps the place to look might be small satellite galaxies like the Magellanic's. I would also think that orphan systems in intergalactic space may be exempted from sterilization by central super massive black holes activity unless they are in a direct line of fire for a quasar jet.
But you haven't factored in radio-synthesizing animals and plants, that can use a whole slew radiations to their benefit!
I saw another you tube vid about this, explaining how the probabilities of abiogenisis would ultimately determine the likelihood of life elsewhere, and also how either life is most likely EITHER very abundant OR it is unique, and based on the abscence of evidence of other life then we are likely unique.
How frequent are magnetar's? Those also can crush biological and technological systems if close enough
Gamma ray bursts lack "coverage", their cone reaches far but is narrow. Even in greater number they'd be limiter of the total number of highly evolved life instances, not eraser of all. Another topic touched up: marine intelligent life if advanced enough and biologically endowed (octopus and similar body plans...?) and culturally prone could easily develop technology, not every technological path starts with the wheel and fire, that is us-centric (think of how would advanced intelligent marine life perceive their resources like volcanic vents,...). I am still "dark forrest" and "life present and evolving wherever it can get foothold" fan. Those paths emerge from very simple and very basic and universal principles. Finally, yes entropy arrow is the fundamental, it must rise... but, read on the details, if entropy could rise to the same level with little and a lot of complexity fundamental laws demand it reaches that point in the most complex way possible (In a way, that would mean that the answer to the Universe and everything is not 42 but for the most advanced intelligence and technology to emerge, advance, spread through the whole Universe and than destroy it).
Nature may not like uniqueness, but intelligence sure as hell does.
hell is sure?
Please keep this amazing content going in these troubled times .. Really need this in my life about now .. Stay Safe John as I need you lol ... Peace from Bristol England
I've been saying something similar since the 1970s when I learned how the big bang and nuclear fusion worked.
Maybe the universe has just now "cooked" long enough to be safe for life.
Not just fewer GRBs but lower radiation in general and the right ratios of heavy elements for life.
Someone has to be the "first ones", maybe it is us.
I have a serious question. Something I really don't understand from all the futurist and science RUclipsrs and Authors and etc. How would you tell there is a Space faring civilization? Everyone always says you would see Dyson Swarms but why? We are learning with us, that the more technologically advanced we are, things get smaller, not larger. We are getting closer and closer to fusion energy. I don't think an advanced civilization would need to encapsulate a full star much less an entire galaxy. There maybe a few civilizations that do decide to do it and we have found in our small closer neighborhood of stars there are some stars that might fit the beginning construction of a Dyson swarm but are much more likely natural reasons to explain the weird dipping.
That's assuming we have even the slightest idea of what the energy requirements for an advanced civilization and their projects might be. Who knows, maybe they have Alcubierre drives to get around, but they need to harvest stars to continue to travel around their galaxy. Maybe they can move planets into new orbits, or power continent sized spaceships with solar sails, etc. You wouldn't build a giant fusion reactor to do these kinds of things; a star is already a fusion reactor, exponentially more powerful, and already there.
All of our technology still requires energy to work.
Unless someone discovers a completely different means of accomplishing work (maybe possible, but in violation of our understanding of physics), they would eventually need vast amounts of energy.
Fusion reactors make a lot of energy by our standards, but a star is a fusion reactor with many times the output of anything we've conceived of building.
Thanks John . Great video! 👍
I say it's solved by a combination of:
- Earth being an exceedingly rare combination of fortunate developments and subsequent characteristics for us to evolve and thrive here (every single mass extinction event and major climate fluctuation played a major part in giving rise to us; we wouldn't be here if the right size of asteroid hadn't struck the earth at the right angle and time to wipe out most of the dinosaurs, for instance)
- The characteristics of other planets possibly making stargazing and space travel more difficult if not impossible to alien life living on it (one wonders if we even would have had civilization yet without the ability to observe the apparent motions of the sun, moon, stars and planets, since we needed these in order to have a calendar and subsequently have the capability to predict the seasons, in turn allowing for agriculture)
- The vast times and distances involved not permitting us to see signs of any contemporary alien civilizations, whether it's due to their emissions being too weak to be detected or all signs of them simply not having reached us yet; we see Andromeda as it was 2.5 million years ago, and other stars in our galaxy generally range from hundreds to hundreds of thousands of lightyears in distance from us.
Thus, the chances are against there being another civilization comparable to our own anywhere near our vicinity due to the rarity of our planet and the kind of life it has produced. Chances improve as we move farther out to include more of the galaxy and the other galaxies, but then distance and timescales become insurmountable. If we had beaten these tall odds and had an advanced civilization in our galactic neighborhood, then we might have detected it by now. As it is, such civilizations are most likely just too distant for us to detect at this time.
Maybe the Aliens have a very "naturalistic" aesthetic? The creations of most animals on earth look fairly natural to us...like termite mounds and wasp's nests and coral, etc.
Interesting... so like an unconscious hivemind?
To be a Fermi Paradox solution, it would have to apply to every alien civilization, not just some or even most.
This has been my assumption for a long time.
This doesn't make sense. I am not aware of any claims that other galaxies we view are intense for GRBs and every one of them are viewed at least millions of years ago. Which galaxies viewed are heavy on GRBs?
I've read somewhere between the comments that it appears that the universe itself doesn't will us, or anything, to live. We are a product of the universe so, rather, the apparent falt lies within us: we refused to take further steps ahead and take a place among the stars. We remained here, in a single "speck of dust suspended in a ray of sunlight", where anything, anytime can easily wipe out all of us.
Then what would have all our speculations led us to? What would have they even been for? All our accomplishments, wars and virtual economy... all these mean nothing if we don't bring them further.
We refuse to make anti-extinction plans and contingencies because they will not give us any immediate economic return, yet we have seen multiple times in history how easily even something as mundane as a disease could potentially wipe all of us out of existence. We knowlingly made earth increasingly more inhospitable for life for the last six decades. Is this the behaviour of a true intelligent life form?
When I was a college student in the late '60's, one of my professors told of an experiment set up to record rays coming in from space. He said that at one point the gamma rays came in so thick, everyone in the lab was scared, then it stopped as suddenly as it started. He said if it had continued for ten minutes, all surface life would have been sterilized.
sounds like a story.
@@jhoughjr1 The professor who told it to our class was quite serious.
Fran Tabor it was most likely a large sun flare that reached earth
I feel like more people would have known about it by now.......................... a gamma ra y burtss smells like doodoo cheekies
Large deep sea subs with a good supply of breeding age humans: our defense against gamma ray burst extinction!
I hereby volunteer. Happy to spend 20 years breeding.
Or maybe way the hell under Denver Airport? Really tho, the power out there could disintegrate a planet this size seemingly very easily. So, negates anywhere
The end-Permian extinction killed off ocean life preferentially, over 90%, it "only" killed 70% of terrestrial life. Basically the opposite of what you would expect from a gamma ray burst.
Distance, and the plodding speed of light barrier. I'm sure there is other life out there we are just too far away.
Thanks för a great episode. Again.
I would have said there were 4 categories of intelligent life on Earth: primate, bird, octopus, and cetacean.
Define 'intelligent'.
The thing is, you can get as many or few categories as you want, from zero and up.
@@redcat9436 purely instinctual. No intelligence whatsoever.
Gee, what if bell curve distribution existed (sic)? Clearly Annis was drawing an undefined line in the sand (we all have feet of clay).
@@Baalur All forms of consciousness (even being unconscious with neural action) has to be what might be called intelligence. Can we deny the problem solving actions of bacteria changing their behavior based on certain chemical gradients.Any life system can only model abstract representations. The map can't be the territory. Consider the contradictions and tautologies even in this high level source: www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/intelligence.
Instinct is a highly refined form of intelligence.
Any engineer can make it complicated - it takes a good engineer to make it simple.
Upon hearing his neighbours argument he became unable to comprehend or relate to such a happening; he couldn't bring himself to make sense of his ears. Only he wasn't the one ment to hear it.
Need to ask ourselves: why should we ever hear anybody? The humanity's radio wave output is indistinguishable from thermal noise at a distance closer than Proxima Centauri. Transmission of just a single bit of information to or from Proxima Centauri requires in order of a mega Joule of energy, depending on antenna sizes and the receiver temperature.
The shows should be available as audio *.mp3 podcasts.
i click on the event horizon video as its starting i see a new isaac arthur video also what a great day two of my favorite youtubers in one day. 😊😊😊😊
I thought the problem with favoring sentience in water is that there’s not as much evolutionary pressure to evolve intelligence?
The conditions are more forgiving down there. It’s a comparatively easy life.
Creatures become specialized for their aquatic niche and then do not evolve much for tens of millions of years.
The Mechanics Of Time are easy to understand. The higher the energy level you are exposed the slower time flows...even stops. So perhaps we are measuring the Age of the Universe based on how we are experiencing the flow of time now. So if time was flowing slower based upon higher energy levels in the past the Universe could be very young. Young enough to say we are the first ones to have reached this level of intelligence.
How radioactive was Earth itself 4 billion years ago? That is several half-lives of U-235.
There's life that thrives in radioactivity.
@@bozo5632 Such as the "Water Bears".
Has the Galaxy just been wiped clean too often for advanced societies to develop?
THE galaxy? Maybe you missed all the picture in this video?
Fantastic interview, JMG! Thanks a lot! 😃
Philosophically speaking, if we ever saw anything engineered out there... Would we be able to recognize it as such? That's a question that has hunted me for years. And I really don't know the answer.
Because we don't have the technology or the means to do such a thing, so we have no idea of how it would look like. That's the biggest problem.
For example, with radio waves we would only be able to find civilizations like ours, that are in the same point of the technology development. Because radio waves aren't exactly a fast way to communicate in long distances... So... Who knows what we still don't know.
Great video and fascinating interview, keep ‘em coming and the longer the better!
why would we need big dyson spheres if we can use fusion?
Dyson spheres use fusion. The fusion inside a star. It is a vast and relatively long lasting source of unimagineable amounts of energy. It is just sensible to use it.
Fusion-reactors might not be viable as a source of energy after all. But when it is possible (and it looks like it is) it would just mean that you can build your Dyson Swarm even faster.
What are the odds of being born this early "into the game"? Aren't the odds of being born before the last star dies out around 1/trillion or possibly much less? And if you were born during a time when stars did still exist it would be around 0.01%? Probably more likely we are simulating life in the early stages of a universe.
What are the odds of a dart hitting the exact spot where it does hit? Infinitessimal, and yet it happens every single time
If there were no stars we couldnt have been born?
JMG please don't hesitate to churn out some history themed spots here and there. Top notch as always!
We intend to. I did a show with Jon Townsend a while back.
ruclips.net/video/PTAn9riDoHo/видео.html
@@JohnMichaelGodier how the heck did I miss this? With Townsend no less! 👍👍
What he said about letting our presence known has terrified me for decades. Whales send signals across long distances because they have no real constant predators as where the tiny shrimp or other smaller creatures stay relatively quiet because of their position in the food chain. We should keep that in mind as a small scale model.
If you were dropped on an unknown tropical island, you'd want to observe and keep quiet first to see where you stand in the food chain before letting your presence be known.
That obviously should stand as well when applied to our known universe.
Why be the one noisy bug amongst so many quiet ones...
The rare earth hypothesis is probably correct! We are alone in this galaxy and probably the universe.
Nah
The galaxy? Maybe.
But jumping from galaxy to universe like that shows that you have no sense of scale.
We do not know how big the universe is but let"s say you mean just the observable universe. There could be a billion civilizations in it and that would still mean less than one percent of galaxies contain one.
Even if life could only evolve on a planet similar to earth there should be thousands in the observable universe.
Is the rare earth hypothesis a possible solution to the Fermi paradox? Yes.
Does it mean we are alone in the universe? Most likely no.
Given that we don’t even know how, and therefore when, life emerged on this planet and thereby making assumptions about the ubiquity of life in the galaxy seems little more than a science version of fan fiction.
We don't know how, exactly, but we do know how potentially. Thanks to the Yuri-Miller experiments and many advancements after we do understand how we can go from chemistry, to self replication, to proliferation, to diversification via replication mistakes, to basic life, and every step from there. We simply don't know which method, if any of the ones we've discovered, actually happened on earth. We also don't know when, exactly, but we know life has been on earth for a *LOOOONG* time. So put these 2 together and you end up with the conclusion that life should be ubiquitous. However, it is worth noting that earth had a long phase of only hosting single celled organisms for billions of years, this might be evidence of one the suppression mechanisms discussed in the video?
I don't think we're the only intelligent life, but our uprising to sentience is sketchy to say the least, especially with the whole "god made us" claims... makes you wonder if it was something else than a god.
The sci fi novel, The Silent Stars explores with this topic. Habitable planets moving in and out of Galactic habital zones. Cosmic events like super novas and magnetar quakes wiping out starfaring civilizations.
Great episode it truly is a mystery. I find it hard to believe we are the only intelligent life in the galaxy. All of you stay safe and healthy. Thanks for the episode.
Staying safe Strick? I think I already had it. But be careful, and best to you and yours.
@@JohnMichaelGodier Yeah so far so good. Take care man and stay safe. Best to you and your's as well.
In the grim darkness of the far future, there is only war.
The old "maybe we are first" theory". Nice take on it though.
we very well could be the first.
That is a possibility, don't rule out anything till we have evidence to dismiss it
@@Darth69906 It's a logical possibility... but I would bet the entire Milky Way vs. one cheeseburger that we're not.
Get ready for the cheesy burger.
I thought Gamma ray burst are harmless - Hulk : hold my beer
The only thing we don't detect is a huge beacon signal pointed directly at us. We haven't tried to detect anything else.
Man, I love the last one, where one superior civilization just wipes out all the inferior ones, scary, but I still love it.
Maybe you should read up on the Visigoths and the Romans. What is meant by superior? If I can kill you, am I superior?
Maybe aliens visit all the time but they are only 2 inches tall and get eaten by cats :-)
smart enoug to travel light years. DId not forsee cats.
Sounds like pretty common life form.
@@parakmi1 to be fair, who can predict cats?
You solved it! Excellent
Maybe they are cats and we haven’t noticed that they have enslaved us.
we could use armadas of cube sats with ion drives/electric sails to explore/map the astroid belt and other parts of the solar system while keeping an eye out for space junk.
I think we complicate an obvious subject. Effectively we’re alone due to distance. We are special , we’re one of a kind
One of my top 5 favorite channels ❤️✌️
What are the other 4?! This Channel is elite
If the dont eam a high power radio beam exatly to our planet lokation, we wil haer nothing from them do signal degradation .
Signal degradation indeed, even in one sentence here.
I'm not saying it's the Reapers....... I'm just saying it's the Reapers 👽😱
John have night time DJ voice... :) listening this late at night, driving thru desert.....
Solve it? No. Make rare earth solution more plausible? Yes.
What you just said is a solution.
Because there is nobody? :P
Entirely possible.
That's entirely *unlikely.* Anthroporcentic and borderline unscientific.
Although I don't know enough about gamma ray bursts to say anything about how they could effect life in the long term, but it does seem probable at this point of our conjecture that we might be one of the first intelligent civilizations, a significantly older more advanced civilization would be relatively easy to detect if it develops in a fashion remotely similar to how we think such a civilization would progress and our civilization is just barely reaching the point that we might be able to detect an equivalent of it in a nearby world.